1.2B worldwide population without electricity access

[Buffet]

Often we all take access to electricity for granted, but more than 15% of the world's population does not have access to electricity.

This is not about getting electricity for 1 hour vs 24 hours. This is simply not having access at all.
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It may not seems significant to some, but it's a huge change in the last 100 years when it comes to humanity getting access to electricity. Not having access at all puts anyone at a huge disadvantage.


This is 3 years old world map and I am sure we must have made some progress, but over a billion have no access even now.

 

[Buffet]

Asia:

Almost 1.2 billion people have gained access to electricity in developing Asia since 2000, with 96% of the region having access to electricity in 2019 compared with 67% in 2000. Around two-third of this progress has occurred in India, where the government announced that more than 99% of the population had access to electricity in 2019, thanks to the ambitious Saubhagya Scheme launched in October 2017. The government is now targeting a 24/7 supply of electricity and such accelerated progress can serve as a case in point to inspire efforts in other areas of the world.

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Africa:


In Africa, the number of people gaining access to electricity doubled from 9 million a year between 2000 and 2013 to 20 million people between 2014 and 2019, outpacing population growth. As a result, the number of people without access to electricity, which peaked at 610 million in 2013, declined progressively to around 580 million in 2019. Much of this recent dynamism comes from a small number of countries leading the progress, in particular Kenya, Senegal, Rwanda, Ghana and Ethiopia. In Kenya, the access rate rose from 20% in 2013 to almost 85% in 2019. The majority of progress over the past decade in Africa has been made as a result of grid connections, but a rapid rise has been seen in the deployment of off-grid systems. Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia accounted for around half of the 5 million people gaining access through new solar home systems in 2018 (up from only 2 million in 2016), as analysed in the 2019 Africa Energy Outlook.

However, the health crisis and economic downturn caused by Covid-19 is compounding the difficulties faced by governments as they look to alleviate energy poverty and expand access, pushing countries farther away from achieving universal access.

https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections/access-to-electricity

 

[saeedhk]

Around 63 million Pakistanis do not have access to power. Shocking! Wish we could invest in our own people rather than harping on about how nobody can undo our country and how we will conquer Kashmir and Jerusalem.

 

[Major]

Electiricity prices will be going up soon in Pakistan, and whats funny is that recently i think it was the govt that claimed we are producing excessive electricity.

 

[Buffet]

Progress from 2000 to 2019 in developing Asia:
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India and Indonesia made huge progress in the last 5 years. Both have huge population and 100s of millions were without electricity access just 5 years ago in both countries.


In 2019, largest population without electricity access in Asia:

Pakistan - 45M
BD - 28M
Myanmar - 27M
North Korea - 19M

Total 155M in developing Asia don't have electricity access. 119M out of 155M is in Pakistan, BD, Myanmar, and North Korea. Once these 4 countries get near 99% of coverage, developing Asia will have pretty much full coverage for electricity.

https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections/access-to-electricity

 

[Last Monetarist]

Electiricity prices will be going up soon in Pakistan, and whats funny is that recently i think it was the govt that claimed we are producing excessive electricity.

It's true, generation capacity isn't a problem anymore. Peak electricity demand during the summer is at 25 GW, with current generation around 36-37 GW.

The current problem is attributable to an archaic transmission and distribution network, with the NTDC being too bureaucratic to efficiently invest in the requisite upgrades.

The fundamental issue of there not being sufficient industrial demand will cripple the economy in the long-run.

 

[Buffet]

Break down of world - without electricity access.



Total without electricity in the world: 771M

Sub Saharan Africa(578M) + Developing Asia(155M) = 733M out of 771M in entire world

Clearly, Sub-Saharan Africa should be the focus of providing electricity access. Then 4 countries in developing Asia. If we just do those two regions well, then we will connect pretty much entire world with electricity supply.

Again, this is just having access to electricity. It is not about getting it 24/7. But first step is to at least give access.

 

[Buffet]

Around 63 million Pakistanis do not have access to power. Shocking! Wish we could invest in our own people rather than harping on about how nobody can undo our country and how we will conquer Kashmir and Jerusalem.

45M in 2019.

Pakistan has made progress. Just need to ramp it up to quickly cover everyone.

 

[Buffet]

Electiricity prices will be going up soon in Pakistan, and whats funny is that recently i think it was the govt that claimed we are producing excessive electricity.

Electricity production being large enough is one thing, I was mainly sharing the data for not being connected to electricity. It puts a certain population at a huge disadvantage. Even if you get access for 2 hours, it is a huge improvement when compared to not having electricity.

 

[Buffet]

It's true, generation capacity isn't a problem anymore. Peak electricity demand during the summer is at 25 GW, with current generation around 36-37 GW.

The current problem is attributable to an archaic transmission and distribution network, with the NTDC being too bureaucratic to efficiently invest in the requisite upgrades.

The fundamental issue of there not being sufficient industrial demand will cripple the economy in the long-run.

If 45M population, who don't have access right now, can be connected then it may use up extra generation capacity?

 

[Last Monetarist]

If 45M population, who don't have access right now, can be connected then it may use up extra generation capacity?

True, that will utilize some of the excess supply. However, there are more power plants slated to come online over the next few years, so I anticipate capacity surplus to persist.

The big assumption is that the upgrades to the grid network are made, which is extremely unlikely in my view.

The problem isn't just a lack of capital, but also a cultural issue within the national distribution company, which is one of the most inefficient public service bodies in the country.

 

[Buffet]

True, that will utilize some of the excess supply. However, there are more power plants slated to come online over the next few years, so I anticipate capacity surplus to persist.

The big assumption is that the upgrades to the grid network are made, which is extremely unlikely in my view.

The problem isn't just a lack of capital, but also a cultural issue within the national distribution company, which is one of the most inefficient public service bodies in the country.

If excess capacity is going up and there are 40-50M without a connection then I am pretty sure that some effort will be made to connect everyone and upgrade the grid. It is low-hanging fruit and not picking it up does not make any sense.

 

[Last Monetarist]

If excess capacity is going up and there are 40-50M without a connection then I am pretty sure that some effort will be made to connect everyone and upgrade the grid. It is low-hanging fruit and not picking it up does not make any sense.

The capacity is going up because there is a lot of private capital allocated to the power generation sector, however, the incentives to invest in the grid especially if the offtake is not linked to industrial demand are just not there.

 

[Buffet]

The capacity is going up because there is a lot of private capital allocated to the power generation sector, however, the incentives to invest in the grid especially if the offtake is not linked to industrial demand are just not there.

I think the incentive structure will change. It happens in every country. The only issue is that upgrading the grid is expensive and it takes time. US us going through that process and it's 15-20 years of effort.

 

[Last Monetarist]

I think the incentive structure will change. It happens in every country. The only issue is that upgrading the grid is expensive and it takes time. US us going through that process and it's 15-20 years of effort.

That I agree with. I have to deal with these issues first-hand in the day job, and have come up against it previously in other markets in Southern Europe and the Far East, and it will take more than a decade to begin to reverse the inefficiencies in the network.

 

[sweep_shot]

Not bad. I thought the figure would be higher than this.