BBC: EU Referendum voting patterns: Brexit voters generally less educated than those voting Remain

[Yossarian]

The BBC has obtained a more localised breakdown of votes from nearly half of the local authorities which counted EU referendum ballots last June.

This information provides much greater depth and detail in explaining the pattern of how the UK voted. The key findings are:

* The data confirms previous indications that local results were strongly associated with the educational attainment of voters - populations with lower qualifications were significantly more likely to vote Leave. (The data for this analysis comes from one in nine wards)

* The level of education had a higher correlation with the voting pattern than any other major demographic measure from the census

* The age of voters was also important, with older electorates more likely to choose Leave

* Ethnicity was crucial in some places, with ethnic minority areas generally more likely to back Remain. However this varied, and in parts of London some Asian populations were more likely to support Leave

* The combination of education, age and ethnicity accounts for the large majority of the variation in votes between different places

* Across the country and in many council districts we can point out stark contrasts between localities which most favoured Leave or Remain

* There was a broad pattern in several urban areas of deprived, predominantly white, housing estates towards the urban periphery voting Leave, while inner cities with high numbers of ethnic minorities and/or students voted Remain

* Around 270 locations can be identified where the local outcome was in the opposite direction to the broader official counting area, including parts of Scotland which backed Leave and a Cornwall constituency which voted Remain

* Postal voters appear narrowly more likely to have backed Remain than those who voted in a polling station

The national picture

Education




Age




Ethnicity

Ethnicity is a smaller factor, but one which also contributed to the results. Adding that in means that now 83% of the variation in the vote between wards is explained. White populations were generally more pro-Leave, and ethnic minorities less so. However, there were some interesting differences between London and elsewhere.

[......]

Overview


This powerful link to educational attainment could stem from the lower qualified tending to feel less confident about their prospects and ability to compete for work in a competitive globalised economy with high levels of migration.

On the other hand some commentators see it as primarily reflecting a "culture war" or "values conflict", rather than issues of economics and inequality. Research shows that non-graduates tend to take less liberal positions than graduates on a range of social issues from immigration and multi-culturalism to the death penalty.

The former campaign director of Vote Leave, Dominic Cummings, argues that the better educated are more prone to holding irrational political opinions because they are more driven by fashion and a group mentality.

Of course this assessment does not imply that Leave voters were almost all poorly educated and old, and Remain voters well educated and young. The Leave side obviously attracted support from many middle class professionals, graduates and younger people. Otherwise it couldn't have won.

While there was undoubtedly a lot of voting which cut across these criteria, the point of this analysis is to explore how different social groups most probably voted - and it is clear that education, age and ethnicity were crucial influences.

After these three key factors are taken into account, adding in further demographic measures from the census does little to increase the explanation of UK-wide voting patterns.

However, this does not reflect the distinctively more pro-Remain voting in Scotland, since we are short of Scottish data at this geographical level. It is clear as well that in a few specific locations high student numbers were also very relevant.

To a certain extent, using the level of educational qualifications as a measure combines both class and age factors, with working class and older adults both tending to be less well qualified

But the association between education and the voting results is stronger than the association between social or occupational class and the results. This is still true after taking the age of the local population into account.

This suggests that voters with lower qualifications were more likely to back Leave than the better qualified, even when they were in the same social or occupational class.

The existence of a significant connection between Leave voting and lower educational qualifications had already been suggested by analysis of the published referendum results from the official counting areas.

The data we have obtained strengthens this conclusion, because voting patterns can now be compared to social statistics from the 2011 census at a much more detailed geographical level than by the earlier studies.

The BBC analysis is also consistent with opinion polling (for example, from Lord Ashcroft, Ipsos Mori and YouGov) that tried to identify the characteristics of Leave and Remain voters.

 

[R0H1T]

You could say the same about the US elections & Trumpsters

 

[Yossarian]

You could say the same about the US elections & Trumpsters

Possibly. Has there been any similar analysis done by some credible source on the Presidential election demographics ?

 

[shaykh]

Trump did very well with the white working class and the very rich ... Trump also did reasonably well with Latinos ...

Puerto Ricans for instance are often evangelical so Trumps views on abortion trumped say his views on immigration ...

Cubans also voted in favour of Trump for the most part ...they view themselves as white predominantly, also the influence of patriarchy and religion played a part too ...

Older immigrant communities also tend to be more anti immigrant than white people in some cases ...

 

[Big Mac]

 

[James]

Depends on how one defines educated.

A lot of the educated people who voted Remain were know-it-all millennials with little more than an arts degree, a gap yah and a CV with a couple of placements on it to speak of.

From what I have gathered since June, most of the Leave voters were very bright indeed, people of total common sense from the middle and working classes who have grafted and paid into the economy for years, although maybe had a slightly less frequency of BA Hons amongst them than the purple-haired unknowingly privileged double-denim-wearing gap yah folk.

So there are different forms of education.

 

[Yossarian]

Cubans also voted in favour of Trump for the most part ...they view themselves as white predominantly, also the influence of patriarchy and religion played a part too ...

Nope. Cubans (in South Florida) always vote for whoever is the most anti-Castro / anti-Communist regime. Obama (and thus the Democrats and Mrs Clinton) restored diplomatic relations between the USA and Cuba. Whereas Trump is still anti-Cuban regime. So the Cuban Americans were always going to vote for Trump no matter what other policies Trump advocated.

 

[shaykh]

Nope. Cubans (in South Florida) always vote for whoever is the most anti-Castro / anti-Communist regime. Obama (and thus the Democrats and Mrs Clinton) restored diplomatic relations between the USA and Cuba. Whereas Trump is still anti-Cuban regime. So the Cuban Americans were always going to vote for Trump no matter what other policies Trump advocated.

Can't disagree with that...

 

[sshakir411]

Most people at my work voted Trump - not because they agree with him on most issues but because they prefer to vote for the party. The regular belief in the US is Democrats give too many handouts and the people at the bottom of the chain don't work because of these benefits. This is a predominantly white American belief.

 

[the SHA]

From what I have gathered since June, most of the Leave voters were very bright indeed, people of total common sense from the middle and working classes who have grafted and paid into the economy for years, although maybe had a slightly less frequency of BA Hons amongst them than the purple-haired unknowingly privileged double-denim-wearing gap yah folk.

Yes. The same sensible people who got conned over the "£350M a week to EU back to NHS" bus pledge, who agreed with Machiavelli Gove that "we've had enough of experts", and trusted the pro-Remain government to have worked on a credible Brexit plan if the UK did vote leave. Yes. Sensible people indeed.

 

[James]

Yes. The same sensible people who got conned over the "£350M a week to EU back to NHS" bus pledge, who agreed with Machiavelli Gove that "we've had enough of experts", and trusted the pro-Remain government to have worked on a credible Brexit plan if the UK did vote leave. Yes. Sensible people indeed.

I know lots of people who voted Leave and nobody I know voted for it on the basis of the NHS getting more or less money. Everyone is waking up to the fact now that the NHS is a 'walking dead' organisation.

Leave voters wanted a different economy, a sense of self-determination, and controlled immigration, after asking for these things for many years and being ignored by the elitist Westminster suits.

The Remain campaign was nasty, snooty, and full of scaremongering and lies.

 

[the SHA]

I know lots of people who voted Leave and nobody I know voted for it on the basis of the NHS getting more or less money. Everyone is waking up to the fact now that the NHS is a 'walking dead' organisation.

Leave voters wanted a different economy, a sense of self-determination, and controlled immigration, after asking for these things for many years and being ignored by the elitist Westminster suits.

I think you'll find the NHS lie was the single biggest swaying factor for most Leave voters (albeit not perhaps for your circle of friends).

Leave voters aspirations were simply impractical and out of touch with the ground realities of the 21st century world that the UK operates in. Hence, not sensible. Foolish in fact.

 

[James]

I think you'll find the NHS lie was the single biggest swaying factor for most Leave voters (albeit not perhaps for your circle of friends).

Leave voters aspirations were simply impractical and out of touch with the ground realities of the 21st century world that the UK operates in. Hence, not sensible. Foolish in fact.

We will see what the UK looks like in 10 years and then we will see who was right. I voted Leave and I am currently very happy with my decision.

 

[Yossarian]

Within Europe, the UK is part of an economic block of over 500 million citizen, or 'potential customers' for non-EU countries wishing to trade with the EU.

The UK on it's own only has 64 million 'potential customers' for non-EU countries wishing to trade with the UK.
And yet the Brexiteers believe that these countries will give a better trade deal to a country of 64 million, as opposed to a block of 28 countries with a combined population of 500+ million.

The other nonsensical logic used by Brexiteers is that, if trade barriers were imposed "the EU has more to lose than the UK because currently the EU exports more to the UK than it imports from the UK".

This completely overlooks the fact that these EU exports to the UK are split amongst 27 nations, meaning, on average, each is affected by a factor of 1/27 (or 3.7% each) of EU's trade with the UK, whereas the UK is affected 100% in terms of the UK's trade with the EU.

But, of course, this is totally above the comprehension of Brexiteers. No wonder survey after survey, analysis after analysis, is finding that Brexit voters generally are less educated than those who voted Remain.

And last, but not least, it's been quite obvious all along that if it was not for the (misleading) hullabaloo (by right-wing racist elements) over immigration, the percentage of the Leave vote would not even have been into double digits.

But the sad thing is that, as every study shows, the migrants are not just good for the economy, but are in fact necessary due to the ageing population of the country, as they are younger, and thus generally healthier than the average population, and vital as future tax payers.

 

[James]

Within Europe, the UK is part of an economic block of over 500 million citizen, or 'potential customers' for non-EU countries wishing to trade with the EU.

The UK on it's own only has 64 million 'potential customers' for non-EU countries wishing to trade with the UK.
And yet the Brexiteers believe that these countries will give a better trade deal to a country of 64 million, as opposed to a block of 28 countries with a combined population of 500+ million.

The other nonsensical logic used by Brexiteers is that, if trade barriers were imposed "the EU has more to lose than the UK because currently the EU exports more to the UK than it imports from the UK".

This completely overlooks the fact that these EU exports to the UK are split amongst 27 nations, meaning, on average, each is affected by a factor of 1/27 (or 3.7% each) of EU's trade with the UK, whereas the UK is affected 100% in terms of the UK's trade with the EU.

But, of course, this is totally above the comprehension of Brexiteers. No wonder survey after survey, analysis after analysis, is finding that Brexit voters generally are less educated than those who voted Remain.

And last, but not least, it's been quite obvious all along that if it was not for the (misleading) hullabaloo (by right-wing racist elements) over immigration, the percentage of the Leave vote would not even have been into double digits.

But the sad thing is that, as every study shows, the migrants are not just good for the economy, but are in fact necessary due to the ageing population of the country, as they are younger, and thus generally healthier than the average population, and vital as future tax payers.

Smug, know-all and uber-patronising comments like this are exactly why people voted Leave.

 

[Robert]

I have one or two educated friends who voted Leave. They were motivated by fear of creeping federalism.

 

[Yossarian]

Smug, know-all and uber-patronising comments like this are exactly why people voted Leave.

Sort of proves the results of the BBC survey then. Leave voters don't/didn't understand the economic details of how the UK's and the rest of the EU's economies are intertwined, that is other than the meaningless jingoism that the eurosceptics have been peddling for years. And instead of trying to understand any of it, the Leavers simply shot the messenger.

BBC: EU Referendum voting patterns: Brexit voters generally less educated than those voting Remain

But then again, perhaps the Leavers were incapable of understanding it anyway. And that's why so many of them are now shouting "Why haven't we left yet!" as if it was as simple as vacating a shared house, shutting the door behind them and posting the keys through the letterbox. And all the time oblivious to the fact that they still have to pay their rent to the landlord until the contract runs out, which still has a few years to go, still have to pay their share of the outstanding bills, and still need to use many shared services.

 

[Yossarian]

I have one or two educated friends who voted Leave. They were motivated by fear of creeping federalism.

And exactly what did they understand that to mean in real terms and how it would affect thir lives? Which in the end is the whole point of it all.

 

[James]

Either way. A majority voted for Leave. Most Remainers and Brexiters would agree with the standard democratic process of voting, after all. One vote per eligible person. Which in this case produced a favourable result for Leave.

It's the will of the people to Leave. That will in of itself should be respected. The British public (and on that note the American public RE Trump) had clearly grown tired of being told what they should believe, and instead voted for what they really did believe.

Forget education for a moment. The will of the people. Rightly or wrongly, rosy or ugly - that's democracy.

 

[CricketCartoons]

Either way. A majority voted for Leave. Most Remainers and Brexiters would agree with the standard democratic process of voting, after all. One vote per eligible person. Which in this case produced a favourable result for Leave.

It's the will of the people to Leave. That will in of itself should be respected. The British public (and on that note the American public RE Trump) had clearly grown tired of being told what they should believe, and instead voted for what they really did believe.

Forget education for a moment. The will of the people. Rightly or wrongly, rosy or ugly - that's democracy.

vox populi vox dei. something the educated talunts won't get.

 

[JaDed]

Either way. A majority voted for Leave. Most Remainers and Brexiters would agree with the standard democratic process of voting, after all. One vote per eligible person. Which in this case produced a favourable result for Leave.

It's the will of the people to Leave. That will in of itself should be respected. The British public (and on that note the American public RE Trump) had clearly grown tired of being told what they should believe, and instead voted for what they really did believe.

Forget education for a moment. The will of the people. Rightly or wrongly, rosy or ugly - that's democracy.

Top post seems to be an issue around the world but no way that means discrimination can be showcased because its part of the belief which occurred in cases of Brexit and Trump election.

 

[Robert]

And exactly what did they understand that to mean in real terms and how it would affect thir lives? Which in the end is the whole point of it all.

More and more centralised power in Brussels held by officials which are not all directly elected, and gradual erosion of British lawmaking power and the overall supremacy of our Courts.

 

[shaz619]

Either way. A majority voted for Leave. Most Remainers and Brexiters would agree with the standard democratic process of voting, after all. One vote per eligible person. Which in this case produced a favourable result for Leave.

It's the will of the people to Leave. That will in of itself should be respected. The British public (and on that note the American public RE Trump) had clearly grown tired of being told what they should believe, and instead voted for what they really did believe.

Forget education for a moment. The will of the people. Rightly or wrongly, rosy or ugly - that's democracy.

No one is saying the result of Brexit should be reserved because then it wouldn't be a democracy, however you can expect strong opinions in the aftermath from those who voted remain and every economic tool affected as a result and from henceforth will be scrutinised. Had remain won am sure you could expect the same, it is natural. However, you're not entitled to respect for voting leave just because you won; I also find it ignorant that people would vote that way for the sake of "public grown tired of being told what they should believe and instead voted for what they really did believe", while we're at it may as well send monkey's to space and have an unqualified bigot as the president of the United States! oh wait

 

[Yossarian]

More and more centralised power in Brussels held by officials which are not all directly elected, and gradual erosion of British lawmaking power and the overall supremacy of our Courts.

That still doesn't explain what it means in real terms, and how it would affect their (Brexiteers) lives detrimentally. As for central power, we already have central power regardless of the EU. 600 or so MP's, or rather the PM of the day in most cases (with the use of the 3 line whip, and the threat of demoting from the Cabinet anyone that disagrees with him/her) decide the laws on behalf of 64 million+

In my opinion, Brexit is not going change anything as far as the UK Courts are concerned in the way the law affects the average citizen. For a start, the plan is to incorporate all European laws into UK law. And even after that, I doubt that there will be any significant changes to UK laws that will affect the average UK citizen one way or the other as compared to the EU laws that will be incorporated into UK law. It's all meaningless jingoism from the eurosceptics.

 

[Robert]

That still doesn't explain what it means in real terms, and how it would affect their (Brexiteers) lives detrimentally. As for central power, we already have central power regardless of the EU. 600 or so MP's, or rather the PM of the day in most cases (with the use of the 3 line whip, and the threat of demoting from the Cabinet anyone that disagrees with him/her) decide the laws on behalf of 64 million+

In my opinion, Brexit is not going change anything as far as the UK Courts are concerned in the way the law affects the average citizen. For a start, the plan is to incorporate all European laws into UK law. And even after that, I doubt that there will be any significant changes to UK laws that will affect the average UK citizen one way or the other as compared to the EU laws that will be incorporated into UK law. It's all meaningless jingoism from the eurosceptics.

Didn't say I agreed with them. I had a Damascan conversion to Remain with 48 hrs to go, when I realised that we have a lot more clout than I thought due to our economic power, and that the Germans value us highly.