I am not sure if anywhere I mentioned about the comparison of 2006/07 team vs this team. May be, that series ended 2-1 for SAF, this one as I said might end 2-1 for them if few things go in favor of PAK - that 2-1 is probably only similarity that I can find. Anyway, those two PAK teams (of 2006 & 2018) are vastly different - but that's one part of the equation. Other part is whom are they playing - Following are the comparison of 2 SAF XI (most probable for 2018) that 2 different PAK team played/will be playing
1. Smith* – Elgar
2. Gibbs – Markram
3. Kallis - Amla
4. AbdV – Faf*
5. Amla – De Bruyn (Most likely, or Phehlukwayo)
6. Prince – Bavuma
7. Boucher - Kock
8. Pollock - Phillander
9. P Harris - Mahraj
10. Nel/Styen - Styen
11. Ntini - Rabada
I guess, there will be a bit difference - that's only on face value, not considering the respective age & form of the players. It's also a bit spirit damning that, I did put my preferred XI for 3 different venues with reasons, still only real point you could see is travelling early - even Gavaskar knows that, so what's new in it!!!
For the 2nd part, by "batsmen for batsmen, and bowler for bowler", England also had a better team than PAK and PAK definitely had a better team than SRL - still it ended 3-3 & 0-2; therefore I don't think direct equation works in this regard. I was responding to one poster, in between the days of 1st & 2nd Test of PAK's last tour of UK in May - when he was a bit too hyper confident about the gap between 2 sides, it's so big (9 wicket win) that any other factor hardly can alter that dominance in 2nd Test - I had to remind him that last tour both teams exchanged wins (1st & 4th v 2nd & 3rd), and last 3 Tests were completely one sided, because Test cricket isn't won by one over, one spell or one session........ eventually, that same team losing by 9 wickets, a week later won the 2nd Test by innings & 100+ margin inside 7 sessions - so, 2&2 is not always 4 in Test, can be 22 as well.
Coming to your question - it indeed can end 3-0 for SAF and there won't be many surprise if it ends such. I can write a whole page on why it should be 3-0, you definitely can do more, hence you see only 3-0. But, provided proper preparation is taken, it's possible to win one Test for sure, may be even 2. There are few points or qualities indeed I can see, which suggests Series should be much closer than expected.
First thing I see is, to my greatest surprise, this PAK side is probably among the best Test catching unit in contemporary world - Poms, Indians, Aussies, even Proteus are dropping regulation catches at random, but since Arthur, PAK's Test catching is quite safe - team'll miss YK at 2nd slip, but team'll also miss MoHa at 1st - net, net ..... This is a tremendous plus point in SAF, where more that 2/3rd wickets are often come through catching and for a team like PAK, if bowlers are to take 25+ wickets to get 20 batsmen out, team'll hardly compete.
2nd reason is, last few Tests PAK had a joker opening in SAF, and it often ended 21/3 by 10th over. This time top 3 can make it 55/1 at lunch - be it in 29 overs. This is a massive advantage for 2 reasons - 1. SAF doesn't have quality spinner to use old ball and Kookaburra is a different ball for pacers after 25 overs or so, 2. last tour PAK's 8, 9 10 & jack were JK, Irfan, Tanvir/Rahat, Ajmal; add Sarfraz at 7, if it's like 50/3, basically one wicket holding the fort from collapse - once that 1 wicket didn't hold, it ended at 49. This time, bottom half isn't that bankrupt - if top order can negotiate Vernon and a 35 years old Styen, my hunch is PAK's last 5 wickets'll add almost similar runs to 1st 5 wickets.
3rd one is obviously I think PAK's attack is better than 2012, definitely more fitter, while SAF's batting has declined alarmingly. I expect it to be a low scoring Series and in low scoring series, gap between two teams reduces significantly - better team gets less opportunity to come back. Regarding bowling, one big issue in 2012 series was that PAK pacers were not match fit for Test - JK was struggling with knee, Irfan was basically 2 spells bowler and Tanvir was 35+, after bunking how many years in certificate God knows. With new ball they did hurt SAF's top order, then ran out of steam - this time, I think PAK pacers are much fitter and that Abbas guy can bowl for 29 overs in a day like bowling machine; it won't be easy for SAF's batsmen. On top of that, Newland's is a better suited wicket for PAK team, in olden days, it was like the Adelaide wicket - PAK should feel more comfortable here.
Over all, the key factor is how top 6 handles SAF's new ball threat, which should determine series result between 3-0 in favor of SAF to even 2-1 in favor of PAK - that's why my entire strategy will be to prepare batsmen as much possible to give bowlers a chance to fight.
Obviously, it still can end 3-0 after 1 months preparation, but as they say - chance favors the prepared mind. PAK might lose 3-0 even after best preparation, but without that, they don't have even a shot at competing for even a day.
