Cricket Heuristics

[unemployedgm]

To say that there is a lot wrong with Pakistan Cricket would be an understatement. The Pakistan Cricket Team is a bad team across all formats. It's easy to blame the current board and management team, but these results and performance is the culmination of years and years of bad management. That includes the 1990s. As someone who has worked in Cricket I've had a front row seat to the incompetence rampant in Cricket. We like to talk about Pakistan, but even the most advanced like Australia are struggling. David Warner's replacement was Matthew Wade. For those who don't know, Matthew Wade has never opened the batting in FC Cricket. On top of that he averages 33 in over 30 Test Matches. Is he likely to succeed against a relentless Indian Attack? He's not and it demonstrates Australia's lack of depth but more so the incompetence of the Australian Cricketers.

This brings me back to Pakistan and the lack of synergy in our approach to Player Development. These are simple things and doesn't require that you play a 100 Test Matches. Nevertheless I pointed this out to an important person in Pakistan Cricket. Here is a snippet and I thought it was worth sharing with the fans.

Sarfraz Ahmed last played a competitive game of cricket on November 6th. By the time the tour to New Zealand concludes, he will have gone 2 full months/60+ days without playing competitive cricket. When he returns he will have missed 7 First Class Matches. The next time he has an opportunity to play FC Cricket will be 10 months from now. Sarfraz's absence along with the absence of other players like him dilutes the quality of domestic cricket. It also negatively impacts his development as a player. Does this make sense? Shouldn't there be more synergy between Domestic Cricket Schedule, the International Schedule, the Shaheens Schedule, and Roster Construction? A better a more glaring example of this is with Abdullah Shafique.

I am a big fan of Abdullah Shafique. I spent much of time before the last PSL draft mentioning his name to Owners many of whom didn't even know he existed. I believe that Shafique, Haider Ali, and Hussain Talat will form the backbone of Pakistan Cricket for years to come if developed correctly. A lack of synergy as shared in the previous paragraph applies to Shafique and Haider Ali maybe more than any other player. For example, when the Domestic FC Season starts in 2021, it will have been 22 months since Abdullah Shafique played an FC game. Does this make sense? Is this good for his growth and development? It is not! Practicing in the Nets is important but it is nowhere near as important as Playing Competitive Matches. This Shaheens Tour is a big net negative on Player Development which is the purpose of an A Tour.

When I was the GM of the Jamaica Tallawahs I selected Rovman Powell for $40,000. At time he had played a handful of List A matches for Jamaica. But I believed in his talent and felt that part of my job as GM and Chief Selector was to develop players for Jamaica and West Indies Cricket while winning. I believe I did that. Rovman played every game that first season despite only averaging 20. In subsequent years he's improved significantly as a T20 Player, going on to become one of the more important players for Jamaica.

That said, he hasn't developed into an All-Format Batsman. The failure to develop into an All-Format Batsman lies with Rovman Powell, Jamaica, and Cricket West Indies. Since 2016, in 5 years Rovman has played 13 FC Matches. It's very simple. How can you get better without the repetition of FC Cricket? He walks into a random T20 game in the LPL and he has to score 40 off of 20. Even if he wins the game for his team it doesn't push the needle for his development. Walking out into an empty stadium somewhere in the Caribbean where he needs to bat an entire day against a variety of different bowlers, in different circumstances, and pitches is far more valuable for his development. It is far more valuable to West Indies Cricket.

The same goes for our players. There is great value in playing FC Cricket. But in the case of Pakistan Cricket it's not the player or the agent conspiring against the Board to make money in one of these leagues. It is the Board failing to develop a structure that his synergy or alignment that lends to Player Development. Despite debuting for Pakistan and playing well, this is going to be a wasted year in Haider Ali and Abdullah Shafique's development as All-Format Batsman.

 

[Slog]

Your examples of Sarfaraz or Abdullah Shafiq not playing enough FC cricket this season are a bit flawed. The reason that they have not played is due to need to have 35-40 member touring teams due to Covid protocols. In a normal year the team would have been 15-20 players so players who are benchwarmers wouldn’t have been on tour. This is a special circumstance.

 

[Thunderbolt14]

Your examples of Sarfaraz or Abdullah Shafiq not playing enough FC cricket this season are a bit flawed. The reason that they have not played is due to need to have 35-40 member touring teams due to Covid protocols. In a normal year the team would have been 15-20 players so players who are benchwarmers wouldn’t have been on tour. This is a special circumstance.

It is indeed a special circumstance but it is one thing to select and occasionally play them and another to waste them. Shafique only played one match against Zimbabwe missing 3 FC rounds in the process! Then he went to NZ for two T20I matches and then got dropped for not only the third T20I, but also from the Shaheens games as well!

These kids need first class cricket.
[MENTION=147774]unemployedgm[/MENTION] excellent post, and I’d like to add Zafar Gohar as another commodity who has missed an entire season of first class cricket after becoming man of the tournament last year. He has not even played any international or Shaheens games — effectively, he’s played zero non-T20 cricket in the last one year and won’t play until the next season!

 

[unemployedgm]

I agree these are special circumstances. That is why I believe the Shaheens Tour was a mistake. Those players especially someone like Shafique don't need to be there. Especially if Iftikhar Ahmed is going to be selected in front of him. International T20 Cricket if used correctly is a great place to Integrate Young Batsman. Pakistan did this intelligently against Zimbabwe by giving Shafique a taste. He played well against a team that is not as weak as we may perceive. That said, it didn't like the Selectors, Coach, and Captain had much of a plan after. Is Shafique the next best opener after Fakhar Zaman and Babar Azam? Probably not yet. Certainly if they thought he was, he wouldn't have been dropped for the 3rd T20.

When we evaluate stocks, we add many elements from Behavioral Finance into our Investment Process. One element is Recency Bias. In Pakistan our entire approach to selection is based of of Recency Bias. Essentially we give importance to the most recent event. When Shafique succeeds against Zimbabwe, his selection was a success. When he fails away against NZ, his selection was a failure. There has to be a process in place that builds that constructs the squad intelligently.

This brings me to integration. The integration of talent in Pakistan can never work because we have no intellectual property around our approach to team building.

1. What is our Ambition? Is our Collective Ambition to be mediocre or do we want to be the best team in the world?

2. If our goal is to be the best team in the world? What is the style of play most conducive for success in each format? How do we reconcile that with the players at our disposal?

3. What is our primary, secondary, and tertiary formations in each of the three formats?

4. What players best fit into those formations?

5. How do we go about constructing a squad? How do we go about constructing a batting lineup and/or bowling lineup? How should a Pakistani Batsman approach the first over of a test match? How should a Pakistani Bowler approach the first over of a T20 Match?

6. How should we evaluate the entire roster of players available to us in domestic cricket? What metrics are important? What subjective attributes are important? What is player development?

There are so many angles and elements to building a team. Part of that is developing a player. I believe and this is consistent with how players are developed across all sports. To improve and develop you require repetition. T20 Cricket especially meaningless T20 Cricket like the matches the Shaheens are playing right now, add little to no value when it comes to Player Development. In many ways this was a loss domestic first class season as well, because the best players didn't get to play FC Cricket. It's difficult to evaluate the players that did because they didn't play against the best competition. Some of these players will go on to be picked by the CS based on FORM=Recency Bias. They will likely fail because we didn't evaluate players in context. The team will lose and the players will be criticized. The cycle will continue.