The premise of my post being, if the very first step taken by selectors is of a subjective nature, then the outcome can be unpredictable.
In medicine, a diagnosis is often reached after considering two test results. Consider two diagnostic tests, Test A has 100% sensitivity and low specificity, which basically means that the number of false negatives is low on the expense of more false positives,implying that a negative result test will exclude all non-diseased (in our context it will exclude all unworthy players) but a positive result will include a large number of non-diseased (hence this test is used for exclusion/screening and positive results are taken with a pinch of salt).
Test B has 100% specificity and low sensitivity, which basically means that the number of false positives is low on the expense of more false negatives,implying that a positive result will include all diseased (in our context it will include all worthy players) but a negative result will exclude a large number of diseased (hence this test is used for inclusion/confirmation and negative results are taken with a pinch of salt).
Now my question is: which one of selector's subjective assessment and domestic performances do you want Test A and Test B to be?
If selector's subjective assessment is taken as Test A and domestic stats as Test B, then the selector's opinion will be responsible for removing all unworthy players, whereas his affirmative response will be taken with a pinch of salt in the final decision. This is obviously wrong as you are letting the domestic performances rule somebody in and selector's opinion to rule someone out. Inzamam rules Fawad out due to his ugly technique, fine, no problem. But domestic stats allow someone like Kamran Akmal who according to Inzamam may not be technically apt to pass through.
Now reverse the roles. If selector's subjective assessment is taken as Test B and domestic stats as Test A, then the domestic stats will be responsible for removing all unworthy players, whereas good domestic performances will not be enough to get selected. The selector (confirmatory test) will have the final say in who should be included after domestic stats have excluded all unworthy players. E.g. fawad, usman salahuddin et al. who top the charts were not excluded after applying Test A, but Inzamam rules Fawad out due to his ugly technique, fine, no problem. But then he will be left with players like Usman Salahuddin et al. who are technically sound and have scored runs heavily. Players like Babar Azam who have not performed in domestics will be screened out, unless they have a massive FC season next up.
