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Is Pakistan in danger of going the Sri Lanka way due to economic pressures?

Pakistan is in trouble and will be in trouble for decades, however they wont go the Sri Lankan route because China has huge stakes in Pakistan (Gwadhar port is huge for them as it gives them a chance to bypass the Malacca Straits). As long as China is in control, Pakistan wont collapse.
 
Pakistan is in trouble and will be in trouble for decades, however they wont go the Sri Lankan route because China has huge stakes in Pakistan (Gwadhar port is huge for them as it gives them a chance to bypass the Malacca Straits). As long as China is in control, Pakistan wont collapse.

How is China in control? Don't come up with conspiracy theories if you can't back them with proof.

Just looking at Pakistan's economy tells us that it's nowhere near collapse.
 
How is China in control? Don't come up with conspiracy theories if you can't back them with proof.

Just looking at Pakistan's economy tells us that it's nowhere near collapse.

Would be better if you can present a proper case for your own argument.
 
Would be better if you can present a proper case for your own argument.

My argument is simple. All the government of Pakistan needs to do is start taxing fuel so that it hit ambitious its tax collection target for the current fiscal year and level higher import duties on specific commodities for a specific period of time to further increase our tax collection and reduce our import bill in the short term and wait it out until international fuel prices stabilise. We have record exports and our non-fuel CAD is in surplus.

The only reason PDM hasn't done what I've stated above is because it's afraid of the public backlash it will inevitably receive if it takes measures to stabilise the economy. PDM will eventually have to sacrifice its popularity if it wants its government to last.
 
The recent petrol crises could lead us towards the srilanka economic crises.

The actual rate of petrol needs to be set at Rs. 220+ . Both PTI and PMLN have made this a political thing. PTI did not increase this as they wanted to delay it for 4 months. PMLN is now too scared to take this move as they think the awaam will go against them.

PMLN can single handedly destroy the economy. Due to the petrol crises we had to bare loadshedding of more than 10 hours during the last set of ramazan which was the hottest ever.

Dont understand what the govt is upto now. The 10% increase in pensions was give out this month and the rumours are that a further 10% might be ggiven after new budget. That is a double increase in the space of 4-5 months
 
The recent petrol crises could lead us towards the srilanka economic crises.

The actual rate of petrol needs to be set at Rs. 220+ . Both PTI and PMLN have made this a political thing. PTI did not increase this as they wanted to delay it for 4 months. PMLN is now too scared to take this move as they think the awaam will go against them.

PMLN can single handedly destroy the economy. Due to the petrol crises we had to bare loadshedding of more than 10 hours during the last set of ramazan which was the hottest ever.

Dont understand what the govt is upto now. The 10% increase in pensions was give out this month and the rumours are that a further 10% might be ggiven after new budget. That is a double increase in the space of 4-5 months

They can easily say its the PTIs fault?
 
They can easily say its the PTIs fault?

Not really. The awaam is aggressively against this new government, I don't think people other than PDM's die heart supporters will buy the "It's their fault" excuse.

But don't worry PDM will eventually bend to the pressure and increase the fuel prices.
 
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The recent petrol crises could lead us towards the srilanka economic crises.

The actual rate of petrol needs to be set at Rs. 220+ . Both PTI and PMLN have made this a political thing. PTI did not increase this as they wanted to delay it for 4 months. PMLN is now too scared to take this move as they think the awaam will go against them.

PMLN can single handedly destroy the economy. Due to the petrol crises we had to bare loadshedding of more than 10 hours during the last set of ramazan which was the hottest ever.

Dont understand what the govt is upto now. The 10% increase in pensions was give out this month and the rumours are that a further 10% might be ggiven after new budget. That is a double increase in the space of 4-5 months

PTI budgeted for the petrol price, the Nooras have to either increase the price or increase taxes elsewhere to keep the price the same. If IK was in power he would face the same choice, as he isnt, you have to show some backbone. Or maybe ask Maryam because she knew the answers when IK was in power.
 
Every economy has an X factor which helps it grow steadily. India has IT and pharma sector. Bangladesh has textile

Pakistan has none. There is no sector where Pakistan has big competitive edge. When u have a competitive edge in any sector , u can build upon that sector and use export proceeds to balance trade deficit , repay debt and also invite foreign investment to maintain forex reserves. Like in India , IT exports is the only reason we are not bankrupt. Bangladesh is not bankrupt only due to textile exports. In Pakistan there is no real avenue for growth and foreign investment. Most of the of the foreign inflows come into real estate - which only creates more liquidity and higher inflation while making housing costly for locals. In that way higher remittances actually hurt Pakistan. It creates higher inflation as domestic production does not increase while money supply increases

This is why Pakistan economy will struggle to come out of its debt issues. IMF programs and China money is basically treating the symptoms not the disease. It will cover up the cracks for sometime but after 3-4 years u will be back to square one. So its imperative for Pakistan to identify its core competency and develop its own economic area where it can excel. Now that's easier said than done as other countries like India / Bangladesh / Vietnam / Indonesia are also in the competition and looking out for new areas of economic activity

Unless Pakistan does that - their economy will b always dependent of bailouts and foreign debt
 
Keep a close eye on Nepal first.

They are spiraling into the same abyss as Sri Lanka as we type. By the end of the year they will be there or worse.

Pakistan has a couple of get out of jail cards that it can play with China, KSA et al so they aren't as concerning.
 
I think KSA and China or US will help if it’s nearing default..
Also Pakistani govn any of them do have many technocrats unlike Lanka.
 
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According to some experts, Pakistan’s biggest survival dependency is on foreign remittances, something that Sri Lanka didn’t have.

However, I think Pakistan should take Sri Lanka’s route in hopes that a big chunk of our gullible finally gets a jolt and wakes up?

How come folks like Rana Sanaullah and many other criminals and looters in the current cabinet can get a SINGLE vote?

If we elected these criminals to represent our municipalities then something is wrong with us.
 
It cant be a coincidence that all of the economies who were ‘partners’ in China’s CPEC project are getting hammered in at the same time. As per last estimates, almost 35 percent of Pakistan’s external debt is held by one country - China & the reason Pakistan is in this quagmire is that they are not able to service the debt (and the Chinese banks are not interested in extending the interest moratorium). The Pakistani GDP was supposed to grow by 2 percent p.a. due to these CPEC projects but nothing of that sort has happened so far- China has benefited the most of these projects with nothing being passed on to the Pakistanis with most projects being held up due to non-servicing of existing debts. No wonder the Pakistani army has woken up & now wants to break away from the Chinese hold.
 
We would have gone Sri Lanka’s way had PTI remained in power for another year or so.

Now that the most incompetent and clueless PM in Pakistan’s history has been booted out and we have a proper administrator at the helm again, we should expect things to slowly but surely improve.
 
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If Pakistan went Lanka way, then your awaam would be 4 times richer. Just saying.

Sure, the current dispensation in Lanka has been reckless and shortsighted but a few among you need to cool it.

If the whole subcontinent went the Lanka way - we'd be richer, fully literate, healthier and live longer.
 
Think a people's revolution could well be on its way if IK persists with his stance.
 
We would have gone Sri Lanka’s way had PTI remained in power for another year or so.

Now that the most incompetent and clueless PM in Pakistan’s history has been booted out and we have a proper administrator at the helm again, we should expect things to slowly but surely improve.

Being a project manager is very different from economic policy making. Soon Shahbaz Sharif and PML N are going to realize that they blundered by removing PTI from office and should have let them complete their term and face the wrath of the nations in the elections.
 
All the parameters are worse than where Sri Lanka was 2 years back. Directionally its getting there and it will take nothing less than a miracle to restore the situation. Normalise the foodgrain and oil prices. Open trade ties with whoever is willing to trade. And I mean whoever. Probably lease or sell some key Govt assets to Saudis and somehow get some more liquidity support. We are looking at global slowdown now with acute inflation to hit the world. God know the impact Pakistan could face.
 
China-Backed Projects Testament To Sri Lanka's Mismanagement
The South Asian island nation borrowed heavily to plug years of budget shortfalls and trade deficits, but squandered huge sums on ill-considered infrastructure projects that have further drained public finances.

Hambantota, Sri Lanka: An airport without planes, a revolving restaurant with no diners, a debt-laden seaport -- Sri Lanka's economic crisis has been exacerbated by Chinese-funded projects that stand as neglected monuments to government extravagance.
The South Asian island nation borrowed heavily to plug years of budget shortfalls and trade deficits, but squandered huge sums on ill-considered infrastructure projects that have further drained public finances.

It is now in the grip of its worst financial crisis since independence from Britain in 1948, with months of blackouts and acute shortages of food and fuel plaguing its 22 million people.

After weeks of largely peaceful protests demanding the government resign over its economic mismanagement, things turned violent Monday after pro-government supporters clashed with demonstrators, leaving five people dead and at least 225 wounded.

Many of the white-elephant projects that helped fuel the crisis now gather dust in Hambantota district, home of the powerful Rajapaksa clan, which used its political clout and billions in Chinese loans in a failed effort to turn the rural outpost into a major economic hub.

Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa -- who commissioned many of the projects -- announced his resignation Monday, the same day the anti-government protests turned violent.

But his younger brother Gotabaya remains president.

The centrepiece of the infrastructure drive was a deep seaport on the world's busiest east-west shipping lane, which was meant to spur industrial activity.

Instead, it has haemorrhaged money from the moment it began operations.

"We were very hopeful when the projects were announced, and this area did get better," Dinuka, a long-time resident of Hambantota, told AFP.

"But now it means nothing. That port is not ours and we are struggling to live."

The Hambantota port was unable to service the $1.4 billion in Chinese loans rung up to finance its construction, losing $300 million in six years.

In 2017, a Chinese state-owned company was handed a 99-year lease for the seaport -- a deal that sparked concerns across the region that Beijing had secured a strategic toehold in the Indian Ocean.

Overlooking the port is another Chinese-backed extravagance: a $15.5 million conference centre that has been largely unused since it opened.

Nearby is the Rajapaksa Airport, built with a $200 million loan from China, which is so sparingly used that at one point it was unable to cover its electricity bill.

In the capital Colombo, there is the Chinese-funded Port City project -- an artificial 665-acre island set up with the aim of becoming a financial hub rivalling Dubai.

But critics have already sounded off on the project becoming a "hidden debt trap".

Biggest bilateral lender

China is the government's biggest bilateral lender and owns at least 10 percent of its $51 billion external debt.

But analysts believe the true number is substantially higher if loans to state-owned firms and Sri Lanka's central bank are taken into account.

The borrowing contributed to Sri Lanka's dire fiscal predicament, after years of taking loans to cover spiralling budget deficits and to finance the imported products needed to keep the island's economy ticking over.

"Fiscal profligacy over many decades and weak governance... got us into trouble," Murtaza Jafferjee, chairman of Sri Lanka's Advocata Institute think tank, told AFP.

The economic woes weighed heavy after the coronavirus pandemic torpedoed vital revenue from tourism and remittances, leaving the import-dependent country unable to purchase essential goods from abroad.

'China has done its best'

Unable to service its growing debt burden, and with credit rating downgrades drying up sources of fresh loans on the international money market, Sri Lanka's government last month announced a default on its foreign loan obligations.

It had sought to renegotiate its repayment schedule with China, but Beijing instead offered more bilateral loans to repay existing borrowings.

That proposal was scuttled by Sri Lanka's appeal for help to the International Monetary Fund -- a move that has aroused consternation as Chinese lenders will now likely need to take a haircut on their loans.

"China has done its best to help Sri Lanka not to default but sadly they went to the IMF and decided to default," Chinese ambassador Qi Zhenhong told reporters last month.

For many Sri Lankans, the largely unused infrastructure projects have become potent symbols of the Rajapaksa clan's mismanagement.

"We are neck-deep in loans already," said Krishantha Kulatunga, owner of a small stationery store in Colombo.

Kulatunga's business sits near the entrance to the Lotus Tower, a floral-shaped skyscraper bankrolled by Chinese funds.

The tower's colourful glass facade dominates the capital's skyline but its interior -- and a planned revolving restaurant with panoramic views of the city -- has never been opened to the public.

"What is the point of being proud of this tower if we are left begging for food?" asked Kulatunga.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/chi...management-2964063#pfrom=home-ndtv_topstories
 
Being a project manager is very different from economic policy making. Soon Shahbaz Sharif and PML N are going to realize that they blundered by removing PTI from office and should have let them complete their term and face the wrath of the nations in the elections.

Very true!

In a desperation to win power, the Sharif's will now take ownership of the current economic quagmire. PTI is winning the next election.
 
Keep a close eye on Nepal first.

They are spiraling into the same abyss as Sri Lanka as we type. By the end of the year they will be there or worse.

Pakistan has a couple of get out of jail cards that it can play with China, KSA et al so they aren't as concerning.

I just saw a video from SL. A man was attacked by a bat, one hit straight in the head and he was down and then 4-5 others joined in attacked him while he was on ground. Brutal scenes.
 
No I don’t see Pakistan going the way Sri Lanka does.

Main point being I don’t think Pakistan is going to waste money on white elephant projects in the way Sri Lanka did.
Sri Lanka relied heavily on the tourist trade to prop up their economy, Pakistan doesn’t.

There will be problems no doubt in the short term regarding inflation and the corruption issues but don’t see it collapsing like the way Sri Lanka did.
 
Stock market crashing exchange rates rocketing inflation superhiked what more we need to default
 
No I don’t see Pakistan going the way Sri Lanka does.

Main point being I don’t think Pakistan is going to waste money on white elephant projects in the way Sri Lanka did.
Sri Lanka relied heavily on the tourist trade to prop up their economy, Pakistan doesn’t.

There will be problems no doubt in the short term regarding inflation and the corruption issues but don’t see it collapsing like the way Sri Lanka did.

You are kidding yourself. Pakistan has already wasted money on white elephant CPEC projects - 80 percent of which are running behind or have stalled & China is refusing to start them back on the pretext of security issues but in reality bcoz the Pakistani govt is is no position to service the debt which the Chinese dont want to take a haircut on.

And yes, Pakistan is a real economy vs SL, but the exports are pretty low level goods (eg cotton goods & sport equipment) & are concentrated to the Chinese region rather than the west (who pick up these exports at dirt cheap price bcoz of the political relationship). Infact the fiscal deficit gap is widening by the day inpart bcoz the Pakistani traders have no bargaining power & partly petroleum prices are sky-high/global inflation.

Also another point to note is that Pakistan cannot bank on IMF to bail it out- IMF itself is in a financial crunch - thanks to the pandemic too many economies need bailout & it will also have to budget for rehabilitating post-war Ukraine. And if there is a world wide recession as is expected, no donor country will continue to contribute to IMF/UN/World bank anymore.

All in all pretty dire situation. Pakistan will have no option but to start imposing tax hikes & remove petroleum subsidies soon as their is no way it can sustain lower taxes/petroleum.
 
You are kidding yourself. Pakistan has already wasted money on white elephant CPEC projects - 80 percent of which are running behind or have stalled & China is refusing to start them back on the pretext of security issues but in reality bcoz the Pakistani govt is is no position to service the debt which the Chinese dont want to take a haircut on.

And yes, Pakistan is a real economy vs SL, but the exports are pretty low level goods (eg cotton goods & sport equipment) & are concentrated to the Chinese region rather than the west (who pick up these exports at dirt cheap price bcoz of the political relationship). Infact the fiscal deficit gap is widening by the day inpart bcoz the Pakistani traders have no bargaining power & partly petroleum prices are sky-high/global inflation.

Also another point to note is that Pakistan cannot bank on IMF to bail it out- IMF itself is in a financial crunch - thanks to the pandemic too many economies need bailout & it will also have to budget for rehabilitating post-war Ukraine. And if there is a world wide recession as is expected, no donor country will continue to contribute to IMF/UN/World bank anymore.

All in all pretty dire situation. Pakistan will have no option but to start imposing tax hikes & remove petroleum subsidies soon as their is no way it can sustain lower taxes/petroleum.

So my main point was correct that Pakistan isn’t going to collapse like Sri Lanka ? Thanks for confirming.

Regarding the other projects yeah finance maybe a big problem but they were not personal pet projects of a Pak PM unlike the Sri Lankan situation. These projects may still be viable in the future - it wasn’t just made out of thin air.

And I agree with the last point as well, petrol prices will go up so like I said Pakistan is not going to collapse like Sri Lanka. Not sure where the disagreement was.
 
We would have gone Sri Lanka’s way had PTI remained in power for another year or so.

Now that the most incompetent and clueless PM in Pakistan’s history has been booted out and we have a proper administrator at the helm again, we should expect things to slowly but surely improve.

Your pathetic ramblings are avoiding the disaster your crooks have imported on PK is funny if didn't have such terrible consequences. In 3 weeks you have 1/2 reserves, begged others and have been told to get lost, have started demos in holy places and have run away to consult a fugitive. No govt will ever be this bad. Even the PPP govt in 2008-2013 was competent compared to these crooks.
 
Pakistan will not collapse, until they don't decide to keep taking chinese loans to repay chinese loans. Better to go to IMF or countries like Saudi, UAE etc. Pakistan needs to diversify its loan basket and involve more and more non Chinese companies, get competitive bidding on.

SL is a goner. Nepal is on a similar path, if they don't control their trade deficit.

Chinese have the same way of working, buy out the politician in power and through him sell the country, loans and projects, whether the country needs it or not.

Chinese Money, from Chinese banks, finance Chinese companies, to pay chinese workers to build project to be run by the Chinese. While the country pays the high interest rate loans to give business to Chinese banks, companies and Chinese people.

Thankfully MMS and the Congress didn't take this deal or probably they didn't have enough time and Modi has stead fastly refused to get into this.
 
You are kidding yourself. Pakistan has already wasted money on white elephant CPEC projects - 80 percent of which are running behind or have stalled & China is refusing to start them back on the pretext of security issues but in reality bcoz the Pakistani govt is is no position to service the debt which the Chinese dont want to take a haircut on.

And yes, Pakistan is a real economy vs SL, but the exports are pretty low level goods (eg cotton goods & sport equipment) & are concentrated to the Chinese region rather than the west (who pick up these exports at dirt cheap price bcoz of the political relationship). Infact the fiscal deficit gap is widening by the day inpart bcoz the Pakistani traders have no bargaining power & partly petroleum prices are sky-high/global inflation.

Also another point to note is that Pakistan cannot bank on IMF to bail it out- IMF itself is in a financial crunch - thanks to the pandemic too many economies need bailout & it will also have to budget for rehabilitating post-war Ukraine. And if there is a world wide recession as is expected, no donor country will continue to contribute to IMF/UN/World bank anymore.

All in all pretty dire situation. Pakistan will have no option but to start imposing tax hikes & remove petroleum subsidies soon as their is no way it can sustain lower taxes/petroleum.

Can you list some of these white elephant projects?
From what I have read up on, most are infrastructure projects building road/rail/ Dams/power projects.

Phase 2 has SEZs.
CPEC is a bit different as it connects China to Africa/EU via Gwadar.

Yes the IPP rate/capacity charges that were negotiated prior to IK by PMLN were awful that he wanted to renegotiate.
 
Can you list some of these white elephant projects?
From what I have read up on, most are infrastructure projects building road/rail/ Dams/power projects.

Phase 2 has SEZs.
CPEC is a bit different as it connects China to Africa/EU via Gwadar.

Yes the IPP rate/capacity charges that were negotiated prior to IK by PMLN were awful that he wanted to renegotiate.

The SL projects which failed big time were also infrastructure projects - Port, airport, roads. And Just bcoz they were mainly infrastructure doesnt mean they were viable - there has been hardly any transparency about the financing of these projects. Yes you fool the public by showing zero interest loans to the project on paper, but what you dont see are the loans given to State banks which indirectly fund these projects. China used similar model for financing SL, Pak & Nepal projects & pushed them all into a debt trap.

What Pakistan can do is to play US & China to get the most of each other. China might panic & write off the loans further if it feels Pak is getting too close to US again -they barely have any other allies left in the region.
 
The SL projects which failed big time were also infrastructure projects - Port, airport, roads. And Just bcoz they were mainly infrastructure doesnt mean they were viable - there has been hardly any transparency about the financing of these projects. Yes you fool the public by showing zero interest loans to the project on paper, but what you dont see are the loans given to State banks which indirectly fund these projects. China used similar model for financing SL, Pak & Nepal projects & pushed them all into a debt trap.

What Pakistan can do is to play US & China to get the most of each other. China might panic & write off the loans further if it feels Pak is getting too close to US again -they barely have any other allies left in the region.

Again can you give me an example of these white elephant projects? Diamer Basha dam? ML-1 rail link?
Gwadar expansion?

White elephant projects were Lahore Metro, Orange train where massive kickbacks were taken and then records burned.

Obviously Chinese are in it for their own interest and not for any altruistic intentions.

Again CPEC is different from what projects in SL or Nepal or Africa, and China has not held a gun on your head. All these countries should have done their due diligence. If you build an airport and non of the supporting infrastructure or a massive port just because you want to then shame on you.

Same goes for Pakistan. From what I have been told, chinese private firms are notorious and have no qualms in offering kickbacks and bribes but the loan repayment is enforced by the Chinese Gov.
We can see that in the IPPs where high per unit prices and capacity charges were agreed upon by the PMLN government. That is why IK made up the CPEC authority to review and approve only projects that are essential (hence the purported delay).

CPEC will not appear to be a win win situation unless you have SEZs set up and Chinese firms set up manufacturing and or assembly plants to export stuff out from Gwadar. But for SEZz to go up, you need basic infrastructure and energy needs taken care of.

Let me know if my understanding is flawed?
 
FAISALABAD: Former interior minister and Awami Muslim League President Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed on Sunday warned that if PTI Chairman Imran Khan is arrested, Pakistan will turn into Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka, a country of 22 million people, is currently facing the worst economic and political crisis in its history ever since it gained independence in 1948.

Rasheed, while addressing a press conference at Faisalabad's Serena Hotel earlier today, said that the incumbent coalition government had become directionless and was unable to handle the situation. "The government should call Nawaz Sharif back now."

Rasheed said that if Imran Khan is arrested, the PTI has already devised a strategy to deal with the situation, adding that the country would plunge into a political crisis and would witness a Sri Lanka-like situation.

Taking a jibe a the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a coalition of parties that successfully toppled the PTI-led government through a motion of no-confidence, Rasheed said that Imran Khan had become the nation's hero despite his ouster.

"The politics of 11 parties have died and the time to give respect to the vote has ended because votes were sold for Rs250 million," he said.

The former minister also criticised MQM-P and the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) for parting ways with the PTI.

'Country is about to become defaulter, institutions should intervene'

Later on, while addressing a jalsa in Faisalabad, Rasheed said that the country is soon going to become a defaulter, therefore, state institutions should intervene.

"Shahbaz Sharif, you should address the nation and declare whether you're going to go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or not," he said, adding that the country has fallen short of $6 billion within a month.

He said the state institutions should take all stakeholders on board, form a national government, appoint a technocrat prime minister, and hold the elections by September.

GEO
 
We are not Sri Lanka neither we are close to it, in fact, the six per cent GDP growth for the last two years is amazing shocks for the entire world, Acting Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Dr Murtaza Syed said in a podcast on Thursday.

“There is no doubt that the economy is facing challenges and the economies of many countries are in trouble due to commodity high prices after Covid. Sri Lank is one of them, but they did not manage well and took some wrong or late decisions that created problems for the country,” Dr Syed said in the SBP podcast.

“Pakistan is not Sri Lanka. The country was badly hit by Covid as their income from tourism dried up. The tourism-based economy failed to fight off the challenges. For two years, they allowed the budget deficit to increase, which brought pressure on the current account. They did not raise the interest rate for two years. For two years, Sri Lanka kept the exchange rate unchanged, which means they were using their reserves to keep the exchange rate at the desired level. It finally resulted in a large current account deficit and their foreign exchange reserves being depleted. The only way to plug the current account is to throw dollars in to the market which eroded the reserves; finally the exchange rate went by 50-60pc overnight.

Talks with IMF progressing

The SBP official said Sri Lanka did not manage the public debt, which kept increasing for two years. “Their reserves fell sharply, the interest rate suddenly went up in a panic, and the economy failed to meet the basic requirements. The public debt became unmanageable,” he added.

Pakistan was extremely cautious after Covid-19. The State Bank provided stimulus while the government was more cautious and targeted.

“The public debt increased by up to 10pc in most countries, but in Pakistan it fell,” said the governor.

Our public debt to GDP, in fact, decreased from 77pc in 2019 to 71pc today, down by 6pc, he said.

“Indicators are much better than in most of the countries hit by Covid. Our growth was one of the best among the Covid-hit economies. It was an amazing shock for the world. Our economy recovered quickly, and for the last two years, the growth has been about 6pc,” Dr Syed said.

Reserves in 2019 were $7 billion while forward booking was $8bn which means our reserve was negative one billion dollars. Now we have $10bn reserves while the forward booking is $4bn which means we still have reserves of $6bn, he said.

“In all the main dimensions, we are in a much better position. Another important point is that we are in the IMF (International Monetary Fund) programme and they are supporting our reforms."

Pakistanis never defaulted before and will not default, Dr Syed added.

He said that talks with IMF are in right direction. We should know that the IMF suggests what is good for an economy. What the IMF is saying about Pakistan is that the subsidy on oil was not affordable for the Pakistan economy as the country does not have enough resources. The deal with the IMF is very close, he said.

Talking about the Roshan Digital Accounts, the governor said inflows are intact. “Daily inflow is $8-10 million,” he said. “It is a product of the State Bank, while more products are in the pipeline to attract overseas Pakistanis,” he added.

Published in Dawn, June 3rd, 2022
 
No financial emergency in Pakistan, says Miftah

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said on Monday that there was no financial emergency in Pakistan, especially after the two back-to-back increase in the price of petroleum.

The federal minister said the prime minister at “some point” will announce austerity measures, as he ruled out any kind of financial emergency in light of the poor economic situation.

“But there is not going to be any declaration of financial emergency. Nor is there any financial emergency. After two increases in petrol prices, we are out of the financial crisis,” the minister said while referring to the potential austerity measures.

Miftah also rubbished rumours regarding the closure of Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA), saying the government has no plans to “freeze foreign currency accounts or Roshan Digital Accounts or take over people private lockers”.

“We have never even contemplated these steps. Nor will we ever do it. Speculation on social media about this is wrong and coming from biased quarters,” the finance minister tweeted.

Earlier this month, Ismail announced Rs30 per litre in the price of petrol to pave way for the revival of the IMF programme. As per the new fuel prices, petrol is available at Rs209.86 per litre, high-speed diesel (HSD) at Rs204.15, kerosene oil at Rs181.94 and light diesel oil at Rs178.31. Only the price of kerosene oil was increased by less than Rs30.

This was the second increase in the price of petroleum products over the past fortnight. Earlier, the government had hiked the prices by Rs30 as it reduced subsidies on fuel.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2360282/no-financial-emergency-in-pakistan-says-miftah
 
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan warned that inflation is set to rise further and the country is headed towards becoming the next Sri Lanka, which is suffering its worst economic crisis since independence.

Addressing party workers across the country through video link, Mr Khan asked people to take to the streets against inflation “for their own good” and ramp up their struggle against the “imported government”.

DAWN
 
Former prime minister and PTI Chairman Imran Khan has expressed fear that Pakistan is heading towards a similar situation to that of Sri Lanka due to the dynastic rule of two families – Sharif and Zardari.

“We are going to suffer the same fate as Sri Lanka because [Sri Lanka] rulers were also a family-like here two families are ruling the country for the last 30 years,” he said while addressing a rally in Punjab’s Lodhran on Monday.

The PTI chief’s rally was a part of the campaign for the upcoming by-election on Punjab’s Assembly 20 seats, scheduled to be held on July 17.

Referring to Sharif and Zardari families, Imran said these two families have become billionaires while the country is drowned in debts. “Nawaz Sharif is the biggest dacoit of this country who along with Zardari made the country indebted.”

Imran said the coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif amended the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) laws to give themselves NRO — relief in corruption cases.

Calling the incumbent rulers “shameless, jackals,” the PTI chief said they are “polishing US boots” because they considered themselves “beggars”.

Also read: Imran says troops guarding our borders are ‘like my children’

He also said as prime minister of the country he tried his best to hold the corrupt accountable but “some powers” did not let this happen.

“Which power prevented Zardari from being punished,” he asked.

Speaking about the upcoming Punjab by-polls, the ousted premier told the crowd that the by-elections on 20 Punjab Assembly seats are actually a “war for real freedom”.

He also said the Punjab government is plotting to rig the elections and asked his supporters to guard the polling station to thwart any rigging attempt.

He also reiterated that “Mr X” sitting in Lahore is preparing to manipulate the polls in favour of the ruling PML-N.

“Despite these rigging attempts, you have to defeat these turncoats,” he told his supporters.

“They have increased the prices of all commodities including electricity fuel and others...”

The former premier said the incumbent rulers during his time in power would raise a hue and cry over inflation but after coming into power they are just focused on closing down their corruption cases.

“These thieves are offering money, take money from them but cast your vote for the PTI.”

Express Tribune
 
Zardaris case should have been finished 3 years ago- all the evidences are documented and the prosecution is straight forward except it isnt because someone isnt allowing the cases to be prosecuted, i wonder who? SS and Hamza is another case that is as straight forward as they come- all the evidences are documented although both Dr Rizwan and Maqsood Chaprasi have been killed, it still remains a straight forward case. But someone has decided that both father and son will be PM and CM, i wonder who? Nani is on bail to look after her dad, but he hasnt been out of the country for nearly 3 years, i wonder who allowed her to have bail, any ideas?
 
I don't think so. Sri Lankan situation was much more severe.

Also, Sri Lanka is a smaller country. So, less resources.
 
We would have gone Sri Lanka’s way had PTI remained in power for another year or so.

Now that the most incompetent and clueless PM in Pakistan’s history has been booted out and we have a proper administrator at the helm again, we should expect things to slowly but surely improve.

lol @ proper administrator

Good for you.
Now that the country is in good hands, together with Major, you should be the most hopeful person on this forum.

Fun times ahead!
 
Who is Mr x based in Lahore IK refers to? He also mentioned a Mr y traveling to Multan to make something happen. Am I right to think that's the tareen lot?
 
Businessmen warn of Sri Lanka-like crisis

KARACHI: Leading businessmen gathered at the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) to analyse the looming threat of a Sri Lanka-like economic emergency as the dollar hit an all-time high of Rs224.92 against the local currency in the interbank market on Wednesday.

FPCCI President Irfan Iqbal Shiekh said the rupee’s free fall has reached a point where it has become a threat to national security as the letters of credit (LCs) for petroleum imports were being opened at a much higher rate than the interbank rate.

He feared that a serious law and order situation might emerge in the event of any fuel shortages for transportation and electricity generation. “We are not far from a Sri Lanka-like scenario and radical decisions are needed to reverse the situation,” he warned.

According to an FPCCI’s press release, leading businessman Aqeel Karim Dhedhi expressed his shock that despite the fact that many numbers are showing improvement over the last few weeks, such as global oil prices, declining edible oil prices and better supplies of many other commodities, the government has failed to rein in inflation.

Urge central bank to play role to end exchange rate volatility

The FPCCI chief emphasised that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cannot continue with the free-floating exchange rate and has to apply regulatory tools to minimise speculation and uncertainty. He added that the country does not even have enough foreign exchange reserves to cover two months of imports.

Despite a foreign exchange bloodbath, the government has failed to appoint a governor for the SBP, which reflects poorly on the government’s seriousness in dealing with the situation, he said.

Patron Karachi Wholesalers Grocers Group (KWGA) Anis Majeed said the landing cost of imported pulses had increased by Rs7-8 per kg in the last 10 days due to continuous rupee deprecation against the dollar and its impact had not been passed to the wholesale rates by the traders due to uncertain future exchange rates. Traders import pulses under cash against documents rather than through opening letters of credit.

He said pulse imports already decreased by 29pc to 897,352 tonnes ($611m) in FY22 from 1.266m ($709m) in FY21. The average per tonne price rose to $681 from $560.

In a statement, Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (KATI) President Salman Aslam, said the business community had serious reservations about the government’s mysterious silence for not taking any steps to manage the declining economy.

He said that the value of the rupee was depreciating artificially, leaving the currency free-floating in the market and causing severe losses to the economy. Investors have lost confidence after the stock market crash and the negative rating of Pakistan by Fitch rating agency.

Mr Aslam predicted a storm of inflation if the rupee continued to fall against the dollar.

The president of the North Karachi Association of Trade and Industry (NKATI), Faisal Moiz Khan, urged the SBP to adopt effective strategies to stabilise the rupee and curb the continued appreciation of the dollar.

The SBP needs to play its role as a regulator to prevent a further rise in the dollar price, he said, fearing that Pakistani products would become uncompetitive in the world markets after the rising landing cost of imported raw materials in view of persistent rupee devaluation besides creating difficulties in timely fulfillment of export commitments.

DAWN
 
Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir asserted on Thursday that the PML-N-led coalition government's commitment to stabilise Pakistan's economy and prevent the effects of an "international energy crisis" from manifesting in the country was clear as petroleum product reserves were at a "record level".

Dastgir, who was addressing a press conference in Islamabad alongside State Minister for Petroleum Musadik Malik, said this as he drew comparisons between Pakistan and "another country in the region that is facing economic difficulties".

While he did not name the country in this instance, the comparison was an apparent reference to Sri Lanka, the island nation of 22 million that has been reeling from economic crises for months, which prompted widespread protests that brought down the president.

Read: Lankan meltdown lessons


"A comparison is necessary," he said, adding that the biggest indication of economic turmoil in the country was that it ran out of petroleum products.

"People had to stand in queues for four days to get petrol. But here, we have diesel stocks that will last for two months and those of petrol for 34 days," Dastgir said. "

So it should be clear that this broad-based government is [working] to stabilise the economy ... [and] protect the people of Pakistan from the effects of an ongoing international energy crisis as much as possible."

He added that the government was also monitoring other resources of energy production so that the "economy is not affected".

Dastgir assured that the government had started taking measures to stabilise the economy and the inflows and outflows of foreign exchange were now "balanced".

Moreover, he added that circular debt had been reduced by Rs214 billion over the last three months.

He said inflows were expected in the coming days as a staff-level agreement had been reached with the International Monetary Fund that would eventually stabilise the rupee and bring the balance-of-payments crisis to an end.

"And by September or October, Pakistanis will also see that inflation will start decreasing," he said.

'Import bill significantly reduced'
When he spoke, Musadik Malik said imports of petroleum products between June 2021 and June 2022 had reduced by around 9pc.

"This has significantly reduced our import bill," he said, adding that the government was expecting further improvement on this front in July.

He said his ministry was managing the matters on a daily basis and were not allowing any unnecessary imports.

The minister, too, said that there was no risk of a shortage of petroleum products as the country had "record-high" petrol and diesel reserves.

'Attractive solar policy'
Dastgir further said that progress had been made in talks between an informal delegation from Pakistan and the Afghan authorities regarding a new coal venture.

"It was discussed that if a supply chain is built for this venture and if this happens, doors will open for trade with Central Asia," he said.

The minister also said that after power tariff rebasing, subsidies will be provided to "protected classes" so that they did not have to bear the impact of the increase in rates.

Moreover, he said an "attractive" solar policy would be announced at the start of August to provide relief to the salaried and middle class.

The shift to solar energy under this policy would also decrease the country's reliance on foreign fuel, he said, adding that an export tariff for gas and electricity would also be announced in the coming days.

'Political forecasts can't be made based on by-polls'
At the start of his press conference, Dastgir reiterated the government's stance that general elections would be held in October next year. "And political upheaval before that is part of democracy," he added.

The minister also spoke about the recently held Punjab by-polls, in which the PTI had a resounding victory after bagging 15 of the 20 seats for which the elections were held.

"We respect the public mandate but it should also be put before the people that political forecasts cannot be made on the basis of by-elections on just five per cent seats of the Punjab Assembly," he said, adding that representatives on 95pc seats in the provincial assembly were those elected in the 2018 general elections.

Moreover, he continued, it was also important to "remind people that the PML-N is the party in the majority in the Punjab Assembly after the 2018 elections".

To reduce the PML-N's majority, tactics such as "horse-trading and influencing independent lawmakers" were employed and the PTI came to power in Punjab, he alleged, adding that the by-elections of July 17 could not undermine the "destruction of 2018, stealing of the mandate and cutting the roots of democracy by Imran Khan".

He also asserted that no violence and rigging took place during the by-polls.

'Imran's narratives crushed'
The energy minister held the PTI responsible for the economic chaos in the country.

"Whenever Imran's fitna rears its head, Pakistan's economy begins to destabilise," he remarked.

Moving on to reflecting on the recent fluctuations in the exchange rate, with the rupee posting a persistent decline against the dollar, and the bearish trend in the stock market, he said it was a manifestation of "Imran's agenda to keep the economy unstable".

He further outlined four "narratives" played out by PTI chief Imran Khan, namely of a US conspiracy, that of "Mr X and Y and neutral and animal", the narrative against the Election Commission of Pakistan and that against the judiciary after its detailed judgement on former deputy Qasim Suri's April 3 ruling on the no-confidence motion against then-prime minister Imran.

All of these narratives were crushed on July 17, Dastgir said.

He said there was a fifth narrative played out by the PTI, calling it a "nappy narrative".

Here, without elaborating much, Dastgir referred to "candidates contesting against PML-N holding a press conference before joining the PTI".

"So it is important who changed whose nappies, and who will change whose nappies in Lahore tomorrow," he said, when the election for the post of the Punjab chief minister would be held.

He went on to say that due to Imran's "ill-mannered" speech, which was also "contrary" to the Constitution, the country's progress was hampered and the economy and democracy were suffering.

The minister said observers were concerned that due to "Imran's fitna", Pakistan may be heading in the same direction as Sri Lanka.

While he admitted that people were facing difficulties due to inflation and the rise in petrol prices, the minister said the incumbent government was only responsible for measures taken after April 19, when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's cabinet was formed.

For the destruction and factors leading to it before that, the previous government was to be held responsible, he added.

DAWN
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I can say with certainty after my interaction with our nation & their response to my call for Haqeeqi Azadi that ppl of Pak have had enough & will not allow these mafias to continue their loot & plunder. We are not far from Sri Lanka moment when our public pours out into streets</p>— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1550763111463981056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2022</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Pakistan is much less likely to become bankrupt. Arab countries, China, US and IMF helping Pakistan.
World countries bailout pakistan but not Sri lanka.

Pakistan needs to take emergent measures to save itself from going Sri Lankan way.
 
Pakistan will not go the Sri Lanka way. Sri lanka is an extreme case - due to its over reliance on Chinese loans and tourism ( impacted by Covid )

Problem for Pakistan is its facing a cyclical debt trap - which will result in many years of economic stagflation - low real income growth combined with high high inflation. This will have negative impact on real incomes and living standards of average Pakistanis over the next decade

Getting out of this debt trap will be very difficult without large scale structural reforms
 
<I>‘Very little time’ left to save country from economic collapse, warns Rashid</I>

<b>No government will be able to function if important decisions are not taken before August 30, says ex-minister</b>

Awami Muslim League (AML) chief Sheikh Rashid Ahmed has warned that there is very “little time” left to save the country from economic collapse amid renewed political turmoil triggered by the contentious Punjab chief minister election.

“There is very little time left to save the country from the ‘economic apocalypse.’ Political instability is taking the country towards default,” Rashid wrote on his official Twitter handle on Sunday.

His statement comes as the political battle between opposition and coalition partners intensified over the controversial Punjab CM poll which saw Hamza retaining the chief minister's post on technical grounds.

According to the Punjab Assembly deputy speaker, Hamza received 179 votes whereas Chaudhry Pervez Elahi garnered 176 votes, but only after 10 votes of Elahi’s own party were not counted, which turned the tables in Hamza’s favour.

On Elahi’s petition, the Supreme Court on Saturday directed that Hamza Shehbaz would remain as a ‘trustee’ chief minister of Punjab by July 25 (Monday) — the next date of hearing.

Commenting on the political situation in the country, Rashid said: “We have to make important decisions before August 30, otherwise no government would be able to function.”

Rashid, who also served as interior minister during the previous PTI-led government, added that politics in the country is only possible under a “strong state”.

“Today dollar is not available for import of raw materials,” he added.

In another tweet, the former interior minister asked: “Why did Attorney General [Ashtar Ausaf Ali] leave the country leaving aside important legal and constitutional matters.”

Rashid accused the ruling PML-N of running an anti-judiciary campaign and asked CM Hamza to “pack his bag” as fate of his government hinges on the apex court verdict.

He also asserted that come what may general elections would be held in October or November this year.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/236763...e-country-from-economic-collapse-warns-rashid
 
Unlike SL, Pakistan is not too dependent on tourism. Covid wiped out SL's tourism industry.

 
Following the significant policy changes and the austerity measures taken by the coalition government, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said that the serious worries about Pakistan heading the way of Sri Lanka and getting into a default-like situation have been averted.

In an interview with CNBC, Miftah Ismail said the high price of energy imports recently pushed Pakistan to the brink of a balance of payments crisis.

He maintained that Pakistan's foreign currency reserves fell as low as $9.8 billion, which were hardly enough for five weeks of imports, while the Pakistani rupee weakened to record lows against the US dollar this year.

Responding to a question about high inflation, the minister said that the global rise in prices of oil, and other commodities were the main reasons behind the inflation in the country.

He, however, said the country is now heading in the right direction.

The finance minister maintained that the coalition government took tough measures to steer the country out of the economic crisis. Miftah Ismail said that the rupee has come back about 7% against the US dollar in the last week.

TheNews
 
Scale of money grabbing by using white elephant projects was at a different scale in SL. They took unrealistic loans from China to do some uneconomical projects. All that to allow taking a big slice of it.

I am sure that Pakistan would also have some of that, but scale may not be that bad.
 
Scale of money grabbing by using white elephant projects was at a different scale in SL. They took unrealistic loans from China to do some uneconomical projects. All that to allow taking a big slice of it.

I am sure that Pakistan would also have some of that, but scale may not be that bad.

Yup. I honestly don't understand why Sri Lanka went for those projects. Did they not think about future?

Bangladesh seem to be doing the same thing and I hope they will not end up like Sri Lanka.
 
Yup. I honestly don't understand why Sri Lanka went for those projects. Did they not think about future?

Bangladesh seem to be doing the same thing and I hope they will not end up like Sri Lanka.

The common denominator in all of these is China who pushed its SA neighbors to the brink in the name of Belt & Road initiative & has now stood them up. In case of Pakistan, when they asked for waiver/moratorium on the CPEC loans, China asked them to go to IMF for bailout. Yes, the individual countries need to blamed for mismanaging their economies, but China needs to be blamed as well for taking advantage of the poor infrastructure of these economies & lining the pockets of corrupt politicians to get whatever they wanted - hegemony in the neighborhood. Hope Pakistan wakes up to these shenanigans & learns not to put all eggs in one basket.
 
The common denominator in all of these is China who pushed its SA neighbors to the brink in the name of Belt & Road initiative & has now stood them up. In case of Pakistan, when they asked for waiver/moratorium on the CPEC loans, China asked them to go to IMF for bailout. Yes, the individual countries need to blamed for mismanaging their economies, but China needs to be blamed as well for taking advantage of the poor infrastructure of these economies & lining the pockets of corrupt politicians to get whatever they wanted - hegemony in the neighborhood. Hope Pakistan wakes up to these shenanigans & learns not to put all eggs in one basket.

Yup. That seems to be the case.

But, to be honest, China didn't force any country to do these projects. Countries decided themselves.

I don't blame China. I blame the thick politicians who didn't think ahead.
 
Yup. I honestly don't understand why Sri Lanka went for those projects. Did they not think about future?

Bangladesh seem to be doing the same thing and I hope they will not end up like Sri Lanka.

Decisionmakers took a big slice out of those white elephant projects. It was pretty much one big family who made that decision and made money out of it. I don't think they care about future of nation.

It's not as if a group of people who care about the future of country sat together to decide.
 
Yup. That seems to be the case.

But, to be honest, China didn't force any country to do these projects. Countries decided themselves.

I don't blame China. I blame the thick politicians who didn't think ahead.

Nah, China is paying huge bribes to decision makers to allow non-sense projects. Surplus capacity of china gets pumped in those countries. Only chinese workers are employed on those projects and terms are one sided by a huge margin. Politicians will sure accept because they are paid a large slice out of it. End result is suffering for regular Joe. Win-Win for China/Politician , but a huge loss for country.

Nothing like that happens when for Example Japan gives loan. Loan terms are not ridiculous and Japan does not stop local people to be employed for those projects. Simply said, while elephant projects won't be financed by Japan in general. No party is unfairly getting a huge slice at expense of regular population.

You can try to read up terms in projects in South America, Sri Lanka etc. It's just ridiculous. I don't have the link handy, but if I recall some energy projects had Pakistan giving guaranty of 20% plus returns. Now, who takes loans with those terms.
 
Nah, China is paying huge bribes to decision makers to allow non-sense projects. Surplus capacity of china gets pumped in those countries. Only chinese workers are employed on those projects and terms are one sided by a huge margin. Politicians will sure accept because they are paid a large slice out of it. End result is suffering for regular Joe. Win-Win for China/Politician , but a huge loss for country.

Nothing like that happens when for Example Japan gives loan. Loan terms are not ridiculous and Japan does not stop local people to be employed for those projects. Simply said, while elephant projects won't be financed by Japan in general. No party is unfairly getting a huge slice at expense of regular population.

You can try to read up terms in projects in South America, Sri Lanka etc. It's just ridiculous. I don't have the link handy, but if I recall some energy projects had Pakistan giving guaranty of 20% plus returns. Now, who takes loans with those terms.

And these are just loans on books- there were apparently tons of off-book ones as well. In
Pakistan’s case, there were lendings to SBP from Chinese banks which weren’t officially tagged to the CPEC project, but they were. I doubt many in Pakistan truly understand the extent of Chinese loans & I am sure its the same in other countries as well.
 
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No question of Pakistan’s default: Miftah Ismail
Miftah Ismail said the IMF programme has been restored and the country will not default despite the fact that the floods have wreaked havoc on the country and its economy

KARACHI: Minister for Finance Miftah Ismail has said the IMF programme has been restored and the country will not default despite the fact that the floods have wreaked havoc on the country and its economy. In fact, he assured that in the coming months with increasing dollar inflows, the economy will also stabilise. Ismail also announced a reduction of electricity tariff from October and to provide cheaper power to the public. The federal finance minister was talking to Geo News Naya Pakistan anchor Shehzad Iqbal on Saturday.

Minister for Finance Miftah Ismail said ahead of the floods, they believed that following restoration of the IMF programme and release of the tranche, investors confidence would gain strength. While the forex reserves did improve, but immediately afterwards the disastrous floods hit the country, destroying Sindh’s entire cotton and date crop, and inflicting major damage to the rice crop in the province. This has a direct bearing on the exports as we will not be able to export rice and at the same time will have to import more. This scenario triggered an apprehension that the country was heading for default but we believe that once we satisfy the market that there is no likelihood of a meltdown, the rupee’s value against the dollar would improve.

The finance minister told Shehzad Iqbal that in the first three months of the fiscal July, August and September, exports will rise, while imports will also be less than that of the last year. Expressing the confidence that Pakistan would never default, Ismail said that tough decisions of increasing the POL prices and power tariff have been already taken, which paved the way for the restoration of IMF programme and that alone is the biggest guarantee against default.

The massive deluge and the disaster it caused have drawn global empathy and solidarity, the finance minister said. The Asian Development Bank will give us $1.5 bn in October, whereas the World Bank and China would also give $500m each. Besides the World Bank will also give us another $1.5bn in the wake of floods. He said Pakistan is paying 7 per cent interest on Roshan Digital Account and 4 per cent on Saudi deposits. The country’s foreign bond yield has jumped to 30 per cent from 24 per cent on credit default risk. Qatar is investing $3bn on LNG, airports, the solar power sector and the stock market. The UAE and KSA have also pledged investments of another $1bn each. Another friendly country has offered $1bn oil on deferred payments. In fact, China has deposited $4bn, KSA $3bn, and UAE $2.45bn for rerolling, the finance minister said.

The State Bank of Pakistan has given a show cause notice to eight banks for selling dollars at higher rates than the prevailing market rate. We will take action against them once they submit replies, Miftah Ismail said. He said with these steps, the rupee will strengthen and the dollar’s value must come down. The finance minister said the State Bank does not have enough reserves to interfere in the market, besides we have an understanding with IMF that prevents any intervention from the bank.

The minister announced that the fluctuation in prices of POL is likely to be announced today (Sunday). “We have already abolished FPA for 300 units of electricity,” he said and added the FPA was neither charged in August nor in September. Whether it will be charged at all is a decision that remains to be reviewed, Miftah Ismail said.

Ismail said PMLN Vice President Maryam Nawaz is correct when she advises against passing the economic burden to the public and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has already done that. We have reduced electricity bills for 75 per cent of users. We are providing power at a per unit cost of Rs30-35 instead of Rs 80 and it can’t be reduced anymore as we also have to consider the rising circular debt. The power tariff would drop from October, providing cheaper electricity, he announced.

The News PK
 
Pakistan's bonds slumped to just half their face value on Friday, after the Financial Times said a United Nations development agency was urging the cash-strapped nation to restructure its debt.

Devastating floods engulfed large swathes of the country this month, affecting 33 million people, causing damage estimated at $30 billion, and killing more than 1,500, fanning fears that Pakistan will not meet its debts.

A memorandum the United Nations Development Programme is set to hand Pakistan's government this week says its creditors should consider debt relief in the wake of the floods, according to the Financial Times.

The memorandum further proposed debt restructuring or swaps, in which creditors would let go of repayments in exchange for Pakistan's agreement to invest in climate change-resilient infrastructure, the paper said.

Read more: Flood response centre assures ample food supply, reserves in Pakistan

The foreign office in Islamabad did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the memorandum. The finance and information ministers could not be immediately reached for comment.

A UNDP spokesperson in Pakistan did not respond to a request for comment.

Friday's signals strengthened fears of a default, hammering Pakistan's international government debt.

One of the main sovereign bonds due for repayment in 2024 slumped more than 9 cents to about 50 cents on the dollar, while another due in 2027 fell to about 45 cents.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed to the world and rich nations for immediate debt relief, saying what had been done was commendable, but adding, "It's far from meeting our needs."

In an interview on Friday, Sharif told Bloomberg TV in New York that Pakistan had taken up the debt relief issue with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and world leaders.

"We have spoken to European leaders and other leaders to help us in Paris club, to get us a moratorium," he said, referring to rich nation creditors.

The country of 220 million would not be able to stand on its feet, Sharif added, "unless we get substantial relief".

He said Pakistan would also seek relief from long-time ally China, to which it owes about 30% of its external debt.

Both the government and Guterres have blamed the flooding on climate change.

Express Tribune
 
Dollar bond yields skyrocket after PM’s debt relief appeal
Global investors view appeal as sign of imminent default on foreign debt

KARACHI:
The price of Pakistan's US dollar-denominated global bonds – Eurobond and Sukuk – slumped while their yields skyrocketed at world markets after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed for debt relief from rich nations to cope with the flood-hit economy.

The global bond investors interpreted the prime minister’s appeal as an indicator that the country was going to default on foreign debt repayments. Islamabad is scheduled to repay $1 billion against a maturing Sukuk on December 5, 2022.

The prices of any country's bonds plunge and their yields – the rate of return – soar while they are facing a financial crisis and vice versa.

Earlier, the Financial Times while citing a UN policy memo, reported that Pakistan should suspend international debt repayments and restructure loans with creditors after recent floods added to the country's financial crisis.

The memorandum, which the UN Development Programme will share with Pakistan's government this week, states that the country's creditors should consider debt relief so that policymakers can prioritise financing its disaster response over loan repayment, the newspaper said.

The memo further proposed debt restructuring or swaps, where creditors would let go of repayments in exchange for Pakistan agreeing to invest in climate change-resilient infrastructure, FT said.

"Pakistan’s dollar bonds maturing in 2022 fell by 12% today (Friday) whereas dollar bonds maturing in 2024 and 2025 fell by 15% and 17%, respectively," Topline Research's analyst Umair Naseer said.

AHL Research reported the yield on the bond maturing in December 2022 skyrocketed by 6,560 basis points (bps) to a record high of 104.7%.

Similarly, the yields on bonds maturing in 2024 and 2025 shot up to 60.7% (up by 1,542bps) and 39.2% (up by 831bps), respectively.

Pakistan's global bonds yields usually hover at much less than 10% on normal days.

The bond investors felt high default risk despite the country's default risk being measured through CDS (currency default swap) and witnessed no major change during the day, Naseer said.

The country's foreign exchange reserves, however, have continued to decrease every passing week, as authorities partially make import payments and foreign debt repayments from the reserves amid low inflows.

The foreign exchange reserves have fast depleted to around half at $8.3 billion since January 2022. They are barely enough for a six-week import cover at present despite it receiving $1.16 billion in loan tranche from International Monetary Fund (IMF) in early September.

Experts, however, strongly believe the reserves would build up again after IMF resumed its $6.5 billion loan programme on August 29, 2022. This will be followed by inflows from other multilateral and bilateral creditors including World Bank (WB) and Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Besides, the global community has pledged flood relief at around $1.5-2 billion. Their arrivals would also help boost the reserves.

The government has estimated reserves surging to around $16 billion by June 30, 2023

Anyhow, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail tried to clarify the situation arising out of PM Sharif’s talk and win back the global bond investors' confidence later in the day on Friday.

"Given the climate-induced disaster in Pakistan, we are seeking debt relief from bilateral Paris Club creditors. We are neither seeking nor do we need, any relief from commercial banks or Eurobond creditors," Ismail said on his Twitter handle.

"We have a $1 billion bond due in December which we will pay on time and in full. We have been servicing all our commercial debt and will continue to do so. Our Eurobond debt is only $8 billion due between now and 2051. That’s not a large burden. A significant portion of our debt is from friendly countries who have said they will re-roll their deposits."

Since trade volumes on Pakistan's global bonds have reduced to low these days, therefore, "a small selling pressure on its dollar bonds could have resulted in sharp price fall, we believe" Topline Research's analyst said.

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail has reiterated the government’s resolve to meet its debt obligations and continue with the reform process that has been initiated. "Hence, we believe that the likelihood of Pakistan defaulting on its debt payment is low in the short run."

Further, the expected multilateral and bilateral flows post-floods are also likely to support pressure on the foreign exchange reserves of the country. World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and a few friendly countries have already committed flood-related aid/funding which could be to the tune of $1.5-2 billion.

Pressures on the current account have also started to ease after the government restricted imports with the August 2022 current account deficit reducing to at $703 million versus $1.2 billion in July 2022.

"We expect this trend to continue which is likely to support the external account situation. Any upside in international oil prices would remain a key risk."

Express Tribune
 
Renowned economist Steve Hanke has warned that Pakistan was on the brink of a "debt default".

"Its [Pakistan’s] sovereign bonds have lost more than 60% of their value this year. I'm not surprised," he wrote on his official Twitter handle on Friday.

Hanke said that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government was failing to save the ‘sinking ship’.

The observation was in stark contrast to the statements of ruling PML-N leaders who claim that the party had saved the country from an imminent default.

In an interview with Reuters, then-finance minister Miftah Ismail said that the country will "absolutely not" default on debt obligations despite catastrophic floods.

"The path to stability was narrow, given the challenging environment, and it has become narrower still," Miftah said. "But if we continue to take prudent decisions - and we will - then we're not going to default. Absolutely not."

He said global markets were "jittery" about Pakistan, given the economy had suffered at least $18 billion in losses after the floods, which could go as high as $30 billion.

Read more: Pakistan default fears spike on report of UN debt suspension advice

"Yes, our credit default risk has gone up, our bond prices have fallen. But...I think within 15 to 20 days, the market will normalise, and I think will understand that Pakistan is committed to being prudent."

Pakistan's next big payment – $1 billion in international bonds – is due in December, and Ismail said that payment would "absolutely" be met.

There's little relief in sight for a host of developing nations from Egypt to Malawi and from Pakistan to Ecuador, all of whom are facing a painful economic squeeze as the costs of servicing debt rise further.

Officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other bodies expect the debt crunch to heap more pressure on these so-called 'frontier markets', which are already struggling with the impacts of Russia's war in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle to cool US inflation.

Many of these countries are also still wrestling with the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Locked out of worldwide debt markets and with China redrafting its role as the lender of choice to many poorer nations, countries are increasingly relying on the help of the IMF to plug financing gaps.

"Their fiscal space to deal with all of this is very little," Gita Gopinath, the IMF's first deputy managing director, told a seminar on the sidelines of the annual IMF-World Bank Meeting. "We will grapple (with this) for several months to come."

The Washington-based lender has agreed new programmes or augmented existing ones for 18 countries to the tune of $90 billion since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, its managing director Kristalina Georgieva said. Including support since the start of Covid-19, this total rises to $260 billion for 93 countries while another 28 have expressed interest in receiving support.

Also read: Pakistan will 'absolutely not' default on debts: finance minister

Pakistan was able to bring an IMF programme back on track after months of delay, thanks to tough policy decisions. But the positive sentiment was short-lived before the catastrophic rainfall hit.

The fund needs to navigate shoring up fragile economies while ensuring often painful economic reforms don't fall by the wayside.

"The IMF is trying to strike balance between conditionality and agility," said Patrick Curran, senior economist at Tellimer, who is in Washington for the international lender's meetings.

"Countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Lebanon and Sri Lanka can't simply have the funding without any sort of commitments from the government."

More pain to come?

Rising borrowing costs and risk aversion amid growth woes and soaring inflation have seen the likes of Kenya, Egypt and Ecuador locked out of capital markets.

Over a quarter of emerging market sovereign bonds trade at spreads over US Treasuries in excess of 1,000 basis points - a threshold for distinguishing distressed debt, Deutsche Bank calculated in a recent report. Such yields make it impossible for countries to tap international capital markets.

With major central banks such as the Fed and the European Central Bank still in the early stage of rate hike cycles, pressure on emerging currencies and bond yields would continue at least through mid-next year, said Deutsche Bank's Michael Spencer, adding the hit from FX depreciations, especially against the dollar, was the "main source of risk to government finances" in developing nations.

Investors have yanked $70 billion from emerging market bond funds so far in 2022 , according to data from JPMorgan, which pegs year-end outflows at $80 billion.

In Washington, discussions were rife as to when creditors might change tack and buy emerging markets bonds again.

March could be a turning point, assuming the Fed stops hiking rates after a peak in inflation. For others, it is not that straightforward due to global uncertainty.

"It is a world with higher rates, higher inflation, and slower economy," added the head of sovereign debt of a large New York-based investment fund.

More defaults are also in the making, said Elena Duggar, managing director of credit strategy & research at ratings agency Moody's.

"Frontier markets, which are highly reliant on external financing, which have a larger share of foreign currency debt have been most vulnerable," said Duggar, also in Washington.

Countries' debt burdens have risen. The average public debt to GDP ratio – a key measure of fiscal health – rose to 60% in 2022 from 36% in 2012, the IMF’s most recent Global Financial Stability Report found.

Turning to the IMF for financing has been the traditional playbook for smaller, strained countries in times of crisis.

A set of new IMF tools should also help funnel more funds to such countries in the short-term.

A food shock financing window aims to help countries facing shortages and urgent balance of payment needs, while the Resilience and Sustainability Trust adds financing to help countries deal with climate change, pandemics and other longer-term issues

However, IMF funding alone is unlikely to be enough and the strings attached can be hindrance rather than help, said JPMorgan's Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc.

"But IMF does act as an anchor and allows access to a broader set of funding, even if not from the market," said Alexandru-Chidesciuc.

(With input from Reuters)

Express Tribune
 
The problem with a debt default is that it's the crème de la crème of society who will really suffer! They'll see asset prices and savings correct, which is why the govt. stubbornly refuses to even think about this.

It's criminal with all the suffering that's going on, the focus is to somehow continue servicing debt costs. Dar needs to think about managing a default and rewriting the books from scratch. It's already unaffordable and begging for payment delays will only take you so far.

Every govt. keeps kicking the can down the road, and this snowball keeps getting bigger and bigger.
 
The problem with a debt default is that it's the crème de la crème of society who will really suffer! They'll see asset prices and savings correct, which is why the govt. stubbornly refuses to even think about this.

It's criminal with all the suffering that's going on, the focus is to somehow continue servicing debt costs. Dar needs to think about managing a default and rewriting the books from scratch. It's already unaffordable and begging for payment delays will only take you so far.

Every govt. keeps kicking the can down the road, and this snowball keeps getting bigger and bigger.

You are talking as if everything will reset itself after the default. Do you even understand the implications of a sovereign debt default?

If it defaults Pakistan will be left with worthless assets & will have tremendous difficulty in raising any loans in future. A heavily-import dependent country like Pakistan will have tremendous difficulty in getting even basic necessities bcoz no foreign bank will even consider L/Cs underwritten by Pakistani banks; there will be tremendous shortage of Petrol, diesel & subsequently electricity everywhere & inflation will go through the roof way worser than it already is. There will be complete breakdown of law & order- way worser than SL & the situation will be ripe for a Taliban/ ISIS takeover.

Besides the countries who have lent to Pakistan & IMF will start fighting to get back as much as they can (I can totally imagine China demanding its pound of flesh) & till that is resolved nothing can be done. You have to only look at Lebanon or Sri lanka to realize what can happen; Lebanon declared bankruptcy in 2020 but till now debt restructuring has not been completed & its people continue to suffer acute shortages.

If you think what the people of Pakistan are currently suffering is horrible, wait till Pakistan officially enters default. This will not end well.
 
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Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has said that he will seek rescheduling of some $27 billion worth of non-Paris Club debt, but will not pursue haircuts as part of any restructuring.

In an interview with Reuters, Dar ruled out the possibility of a default on the country’s debt, an extension of the maturity date on bonds due in December or a renegotiation of the current International Monetary Fund programme.

The minister said multilateral development banks and international donors have been "quite flexible" with ways to meet the country's external financing needs estimated at about $32 billion after devastating floods.

Some of this may come from reallocating funds from previously approved, slower-disbursing development loans, he added.

Dar, who is participating in the IMF and World Bank annual meetings just over two weeks after taking office, said that Pakistan will seek restructuring on equal terms for all bilateral creditors.

He declined to comment when asked whether he thought it would be difficult to persuade China, creditor for about $23 billion of the debt, to participate.

But asked whether Pakistan would seek to reduce debt principal, he said "rescheduling is fine, but we are not seeking a haircut. That's not fair".

Asked whether he discussed with IMF officials the possibility of borrowing from the Fund's new Resilience and Sustainability Trust for middle-income countries, Dar said "We have discussed all options."

The minister added that the IMF's new emergency "food shock" borrowing window may also be a good fit for the country, which has lost crops due to devastating floods and may need to import up to half million of tons of wheat in the next year. "In this scenario, we have the possibility to approaching and accessing this facility," he said.

Dar vows IMF reforms as flood damage estimated at over $16b

The finance minister promised international lenders to stay true to economic reforms and added that a flood donors' conference promised by French President Emmanuel Macron would take place next month which he hoped would help Pakistan both with immediate and longer-term needs.

The International Monetary Fund in late August released $1.1 billion to Pakistan as part of a $6 billion package sealed in 2019 as the new government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif moved forward on reforms.

"It will be our endeavour, even at the cost of extra effort, that we should complete the programme successfully," Dar told AFP in an interview Friday evening in Washington.

Doing so "sends a positive signal to the international community and the markets," he said, voicing appreciation to the "very responsive" promises of other nations for Pakistan.

Dar acknowledged political risks, saying that some of his political allies had advocated letting Imran Khan stay on longer to face the consequences of the economic crisis. "It would have been selfish to have a political approach."

Dar said that a new study commissioned in part by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank found that Pakistan sustained $32.4 billion in flood losses and would require $16.2 billion for reconstruction and rehabilitation.

"With that challenge, obviously, we have to go to the drawing board" to allocate funding, he said.

He said that minor adjustments may be needed but "everything is in order" for the next review of the IMF which could release further funding.

Dar said he expected Macron's donor conference sometime in November and that he hoped it would address needs beyond the three to four years typically eyed for immediate disaster recovery.

The World Bank earlier this month once again downgraded the growth forecast for Pakistan, expecting its economy to expand by only two per cent in the year through June due to the floods as well as inflation and troubled finances.

Dar, while not criticizing the World Bank's methodology, said he was a "little more optimistic" and envisioned growth of three per cent.

"I think things are settling down already," he said, while not ruling out impacts from global troubles.

Express Tribune
 
You are talking as if everything will reset itself after the default. Do you even understand the implications of a sovereign debt default?
But isn't that already the case. Next to no countries are willing to lend anymore, friend or foe. Bond rates are incredibly high. Electricity generation has become unaffordable. No one is respecting the fact that we continue to dutifully service our debts, even if the country is starving.

This is precisely what the United Nations Development Program report said, take care of the people, debtors can wait.


There will be complete breakdown of law & order- way worser than SL & the situation will be ripe for a Taliban/ ISIS takeover.
The establishment is very strong, this will never happen in Pakistan. The mullahs only raise their heads when permission is given.
 
I somehow agree with [MENTION=78642]shortbread[/MENTION] but default works only if Establishment allows proper democracy to function afterwards, if they still enforce their corruption and defense budgets(without auditing) it would lead to the exact same issues.

Ideal scenario would defaulting and then Imran to get genuine full mandate and work without a sword hanging over his head.

IK doesn’t seem to care about the 1% and his economic approach will suit the rebuilding of Pakistan economy and enabling the talent.
 
Dollar inflows decrease despite IMF $1.16bn tranche
The foreign currency reserves held by the SBP stood at $7.5 billion on October 14

ISLAMABAD: Despite getting a $1.16 billion tranche from the IMF, Pakistan’s dollar inflows in the shape of loans and grants decreased by 30 percent to $2.23 billion in the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year.

Pakistan had acquired $3.2 billion as loans and grants in the first quarter of the last financial year. “It demonstrates that Pakistan has been facing dollar liquidity crunch as its ability to generate dollars eroded with the passage of time mainly because of worsening macroeconomic situation,” top official sources said while talking to The News on Friday.

Islamabad, so far, has remained unable to generate dollar inflows in the shape of launching international bonds and securing commercial loans in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

In the first quarter of last fiscal year, Pakistan obtained $1.04 billion through the launch of international bonds and secured commercial loans of $457.5 million. But in this fiscal year, so far, not a single penny could be obtained in these two heads. Pakistan’s bond yield has gone up manifold. So, Islamabad does not consider launching any international bond.

The Ministry of Finance did not prefer to go ahead with commercial borrowing in the current fiscal despite projecting $7.4 billion in loans planned, generated through commercial loans for the whole financial year 2022-23.

However, there is good news coming from Manila as the ADB’s Board has approved $1.5 billion loans for Pakistan, while the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) would also approve co-financing of $500 million next month. It was linked with the approval of ADB. The approved loan of $1.5 billion will be disbursed next week and Islamabad would be in a better position to pay back $1 billion bond on December 5, 2022 upon its maturity without fear of further depletion of foreign currency reserves.

The foreign currency reserves held by the SBP stood at $7.5 billion on October 14, 2022 compared to $10.8 billion when the PDM-led government came into power after a no-confidence vote against Imran Khan in April 2022.

According to the official data on external loans, Pakistan has obtained $682.3 million from multilateral creditors in the first quarter of the current fiscal year against $1.595 billion in the same period of last financial year.

The World Bank became the largest borrower among the multilateral creditors with disbursements of $416.49 million as IDA funding was made which provided $28.9 million as IBRD loans.

The ADB, so far, disbursed $112.73 million in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. The AIIB disbursed $4.45 million, Islamic Development Bank (IDB) $11.5 million, IsDB (short-term) $101 million, IFAD $6.24 million and WB’s Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) $1 million.

The funding from bilateral donors has gone up as it stands at $385.99 million in the first quarter of the current fiscal year against $110.4 million disbursed in the same period of the last financial year.

The financial assistance from bilateral donors increased manifold mainly because of Saudi Arabia’s help in the shape of an oil facility on deferred payment. Saudi Arabia, so far, provided $300 million oil facility on deferred payment in the first three months of the current fiscal year.

China is second as it provided $54.93 million in financial assistance in the first months of the current fiscal year. France disbursed $4.44 million, Germany $0.33 million, Japan $0.68 million and the US $9.95 million.

The News PK
 
Risk of default spikes to 13-year high of 52.8%
Development reflects foreign investors’ lack of faith in country

KARACHI:
Pakistan's risk of default, measured by the 5-year credit default swap (CDS), on Tuesday spiked by 3.07 percentage points in a day and hit a 13-year high at 52.8%, suggesting foreign investors had lost their faith in the country.

The CDS hovered around 5% to 6% before the Covid-19 outbreak in Pakistan in February 2020.

It hit the then peak of around 30% in middle of this year over the uncertainty revolving around the revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme.

Later on, the CDS slightly recovered amid the global lender resuming its $6.5 billion programme in late August 2022 and subsequently releasing a tranche of $1.2 billion.

However, these days it is again climbing suddenly, signalling that foreign investors saw that Pakistan would fail to repay the maturing debt.

The country is due to return $1 billion to the foreign investors against the maturing of the 5-year Sukuk on December 5, 2022.

The yield (rate of return) on the 5-year Third Pakistan International Sukuk remain high around 145% these days. It hovered below 10% before the Covid-19 pandemic.

The yield on the bonds maturing in 2024 and 2025 also stands high at 90% and 57.5%, respectively these days, compared with below 10% in the past.

The foreign investors have panicked amid the country's foreign exchange reserves depleting by around $9 billion in the past 10 months.

They have dropped to a critically low level at around 1.10-month import cover at $7.6 billion at present compared with $20 billion (three-month import cover) in August 2021.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and his predecessor Mifth Ismail have taken all possible measures to avert the likely default.

They have assured the foreign investors time and again that the country would easily repay the maturing $1 billion in December and meet other international payment obligations as well when the time came in the future.

"The foreign investors have panicked following the global rating agencies Moody's and Fitch downgrading Pakistan's credit rating in the recent weeks," Ismail Iqbal Securities Research Head Fahad Rauf told The Express Tribune.

The two agencies have revised down the credit rating on the assessment that the domestic economy had suffered losses worth around $30-40 billion in the recent floods.

“The floods have multiplied the external financial crisis in the country, as it was already facing an economic slowdown amid the government's measures to cool down the then overheated economy,” Rauf added.

The situation is signalling to the foreign investors that the country would default.

However, the country's leadership has fully arranged the required $36-40 billion for the current fiscal year 2023 from global lenders to repay foreign debt worth around $21 billion, finance current account deficit of $10-12 billion and boost country's foreign exchange reserves to around $16 billion by June 30, 2023.

"The return of $1 billion against the maturing Sukuk in December would help restore the foreign investors' confidence in Pakistan. Accordingly, the CDS and yields on other bonds would come down," Rauf said.

Arif Habib Limited Research Head Tahir Abbas said the size of Pakistan's global bond market had reduced considerably these days.

Accordingly, a small trade in the bonds sharply fluctuated their yield.

"The CDS also faces the same dilemma of low investors' base,” Abbas observed.
He added that the increasing political instability in the country was also a reason behind the panic among the global investors in Pakistani bonds.

Both the experts said the receipt of $1.5 billion from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a few days and another $500 million from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in the ongoing month would increase the country's foreign exchange reserves and restore the global investors’ confidence.

They added that the inflows should help in reducing the CDS and bonds yields as well.

They noted that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was on an official visit to Saudi Arabia.

The host country has said it was reviving its investment plans including setting up of a petroleum oil refinery at an investment of $10 billion in Pakistan.

The materialisation of the investment decision by the Kingdom would also help restore the global investors' confidence in Pakistan.

Similarly, the country is expected to receive a rollover debt worth $6.3 billion from China when PM Shehbaz visits the second largest global economy in November, they said.

Express Tribune
 
Pakistan's risk of default, measured by the 5-year credit default swap (CDS), on Tuesday spiked by 3.07 percentage points in a day and hit a 13-year high at 52.8%, suggesting foreign investors had lost their faith in the country.

The CDS hovered around 5% to 6% before the Covid-19 outbreak in Pakistan in February 2020.

It hit the then peak of around 30% in middle of this year over the uncertainty revolving around the revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme.

Later on, the CDS slightly recovered amid the global lender resuming its $6.5 billion programme in late August 2022 and subsequently releasing a tranche of $1.2 billion.

However, these days it is again climbing suddenly, signalling that foreign investors saw that Pakistan would fail to repay the maturing debt.

The country is due to return $1 billion to the foreign investors against the maturing of the 5-year Sukuk on December 5, 2022.

The yield (rate of return) on the 5-year Third Pakistan International Sukuk remain high around 145% these days. It hovered below 10% before the Covid-19 pandemic.

The yield on the bonds maturing in 2024 and 2025 also stands high at 90% and 57.5%, respectively these days, compared with below 10% in the past.

The foreign investors have panicked amid the country's foreign exchange reserves depleting by around $9 billion in the past 10 months.

They have dropped to a critically low level at around 1.10-month import cover at $7.6 billion at present compared with $20 billion (three-month import cover) in August 2021.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and his predecessor Mifth Ismail have taken all possible measures to avert the likely default.

They have assured the foreign investors time and again that the country would easily repay the maturing $1 billion in December and meet other international payment obligations as well when the time came in the future.

"The foreign investors have panicked following the global rating agencies Moody's and Fitch downgrading Pakistan's credit rating in the recent weeks," Ismail Iqbal Securities Research Head Fahad Rauf told The Express Tribune.

The two agencies have revised down the credit rating on the assessment that the domestic economy had suffered losses worth around $30-40 billion in the recent floods.

“The floods have multiplied the external financial crisis in the country, as it was already facing an economic slowdown amid the government's measures to cool down the then overheated economy,” Rauf added.

The situation is signalling to the foreign investors that the country would default.

However, the country's leadership has fully arranged the required $36-40 billion for the current fiscal year 2023 from global lenders to repay foreign debt worth around $21 billion, finance current account deficit of $10-12 billion and boost country's foreign exchange reserves to around $16 billion by June 30, 2023.

"The return of $1 billion against the maturing Sukuk in December would help restore the foreign investors' confidence in Pakistan. Accordingly, the CDS and yields on other bonds would come down," Rauf said.

Arif Habib Limited Research Head Tahir Abbas said the size of Pakistan's global bond market had reduced considerably these days.

Accordingly, a small trade in the bonds sharply fluctuated their yield.

"The CDS also faces the same dilemma of low investors' base,” Abbas observed.
He added that the increasing political instability in the country was also a reason behind the panic among the global investors in Pakistani bonds.

Both the experts said the receipt of $1.5 billion from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a few days and another $500 million from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in the ongoing month would increase the country's foreign exchange reserves and restore the global investors’ confidence.

They added that the inflows should help in reducing the CDS and bonds yields as well.

They noted that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was on an official visit to Saudi Arabia.

The host country has said it was reviving its investment plans including setting up of a petroleum oil refinery at an investment of $10 billion in Pakistan.

The materialisation of the investment decision by the Kingdom would also help restore the global investors' confidence in Pakistan.

Similarly, the country is expected to receive a rollover debt worth $6.3 billion from China when PM Shehbaz visits the second largest global economy in November, they said.
 
Pakistan will not default: SBP governor
Risk of default spiked to 13-year high at 52.8% earlier this week

KARACHI:
The governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) downplayed the growing global concern that there was an elevated risk of the country defaulting on its international debt obligations, saying it would pay the maturing debt on time.

Addressing the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Thursday, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed said, “Let me assure you that we will be meeting all our debt obligations on time and there should be no concern about that.”

Recently, two global credit rating agencies including Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings downgraded Pakistan’s credit rat- ing on apprehensions that the country’s debt repayment capacity has weakened in the wake of the devastating floods which resulted in over $30 billion losses to the domestic economy.

“Pakistan received a $1.5 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently. Additional inflows from some other multilateral and bilateral institutions including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) are also expected soon,” explained Ahmed.

“These inflows not only help meet our debt obligations but also improve our foreign exchange reserves,” he noted.

“Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revived its $6.5 billion loan programme for Pakistan through a combined seventh and eighth review of the economy on August 29, 2022,” he recalled.

With the receipt of ADB inflows of $1.5 billion, the country’s foreign exchange reserves are estimated to improve by 20% to a three month high at around $9 billion, recovering from the 40-month low hit at $7.6 billion on October 14, 2022.

Pakistan’s risk of default – measured by a 5-year credit default swap (CDS) – spiked to a 13-year high at 52.8% earlier this week, as compared to less than 10% be- fore Covid-19 broke out in Pakistan in February, 2020.

The historical surge in the risk of default reflected the growing concerns of global investors on the timely re- payment of maturing debt.

Global investors have taken positions in Pakistan’s US dollar-denominated bonds (Eurobond and Sukuk) in the international markets. The country is scheduled to repay $1 billion against a maturing Sukuk on December 5, 2022.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, and his predecessor Miftah Ismail, also assured the global investors, time and again, that the country would repay its debt when the time comes.

This was the SBP governor’s first public appearance since he was appointed for a five-year term in August, 2022. Ahmed came to the bourse to formally launch the Roshan Equity Investment (REI) which is an online investment and trade facility made available to overseas Pakistanis under the Roshan Digital Accounts’ (RDAs) banking.

“So far, over 10,000 non-resident Pakistanis from across the globe have invested $35 million (Rs7.8 billion) in stocks of companies listed at the PSX,” informed the governor.

“While investment via RDA into the stock exchange has been relatively subdued, amounting to around only $35 million,” he added, “investments into the conventional and Shariah-compliant Naya Pakistan certificates through RDA stood at $1.7 billion and $1.6 billion respectively.”

“Over 484,000 RDAs have been opened by non-resident Pakistanis from 175 countries across the world. The total inflows from these RDAs stand at around $5.28 billion,” he commented. “The launch of the Roshan Equity Investment (at the PSX) was made at an opportune time,” he said, adding that PSX’s market capitalisation to GDP stands at 10%, which is low as compared to that of regional countries. PSX Chief Operating Officer, Nadir Rahman said that the “stock market is working with the central bank to enable retail investors to invest and trade in lucrative sovereign debt securities like treasury bills (T-bills) and Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) through PSX.”

“The opportunity of investing in debt securities has been available at PSX since 2004. However, this is too difficult for retail investors to take a position on, at present,” he added.

Express Tribune
 
Default risk soars amid political turmoil, delay in IMF talks

KARACHI: The country’s default risk as measured by five-year credit-default swaps (CDS) — insurance contracts that protect an investor against a default — rose sharply overnight amid political turmoil and uncertainty about talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The CDS soared to 75.5 per cent on Wednesday from 56.2pc a day ago, according to data provided by research firm Arif Habib Limited.

Official sources in Washington said last week the schedule for talks between Pakistan and the IMF had been readjusted, but the negotiations are continuing. Media reports, however, claimed that the talks that were scheduled to begin in early November had been postponed until the third week of this month.

According to these reports, the talks would resume after Pakistan fulfilled its pledge to adjust sales tax on petroleum products and took other measures required under a loan agreement revived earlier this year.

But official sources, who spoke to Dawn, had said the talks were rescheduled after last month’s release of a World Bank report on flood damages in Pakistan.

Pakistan is scheduled to pay $1 billion on Dec 5 against the maturity of five-year sukuk, or Islamic bonds. The finance minister has repeatedly assured for sukuk payment, but the international market is not ready to rely on assurances as the country’s economy struggles to avoid default by borrowing more from the markets, donors, commercial banks and friendly countries.

The day-to-day increase in the CDS reflects a grave situation, making it increasingly difficult for the government to raise foreign exchange from markets either through bonds or commercial borrowings.

The country requires $32bn to $34bn this fiscal year to meet its foreign obligations.

Financial experts said the country still needed about $23bn through the remaining fiscal year.

Pakistan is still in the IMF programme, which enables it to get inflows from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Pakistan had promised the IMF to bring down the fiscal deficit by Rs1,500bn in the current fiscal year, but the situation is worsening as the deficit expanded in the first quarter.

The financial sector said the Fund was demanding new taxes to increase liquidity and avoid fiscal deficit expansion.

The government requires at least Rs800bn, which is only possible through new taxes, something that can be difficult for the government amid a faltering economy and political unrest.

Govt exceeds borrowing target

The government raised Rs757bn through treasury bills against the target of Rs650bn on Wednesday.

The only change was noted in the 12-month tenor, whose cut-off yield saw a drop of four basis points. The total bids for the auction amounted to Rs1.247 trillion.

DAWN
 
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairperson Imran Khan on Thursday warned that if Pakistan defaults, it will have to "compromise on its national security" the next time the government approaches foreign lenders for aid.

Recalling that the country's default risk was a "mere 5pc" when he was in power earlier this year, Imran said the incumbent government has "devastated the economy".

He further said all steps being taken by the current government, including bringing changes to the Army Act, are to ensure that the incumbent leaders can safeguard their "looted wealth".

He further said that there was a chance that the current leaders would flee the country "once again" and they are "doing this all for themselves, not the country or its people".

Reiterating his call for free and fair elections, Imran maintained it was the only way forward for the country. "PTI won 70 per cent of the elections despite the fact that the establishment was supporting them," said the former premier.

He also claimed that the aim is to "eliminate Imran Khan".

The PTI chairperson also said this "was a defining moment" in the history of the country and "when the nation stands up, they are unstoppable".

https://tribune.com.pk/story/238680...n-national-security-if-country-defaults-imran
 
It doesn't matter whether or not Pakistan defaults, unless some long term economic solutions emerge, Pakistan will always be living in the fear of default, which at times is worse than actual default. I was reading somewhere that investments to GDP ratio in Pakistan is like 10%, which is abysmally low. It means hardly any new capital assets are being created in the economy, which is criminal if you ask me for a developing country. Without investments and without assets, how would new jobs be created and how would the new revenues be earned. So the Pak govt can keep claiming that we avoided defaults by borrowing more money to pay off the previous loans but in the end this approach is just not sustainable.
 
Amid claims by former prime minister Imran Khan that default is staring Pakistan in the face and reports about delay in formal talks with IMF on the ninth review of $7bn loan programme, Minister of State for Finance and Revenue Aisha Ghaus Pasha assured the nation on Friday that the country was not facing any danger of going to default.

The minister held out the assurance in the National Assembly when Mussarat Rafiq Mahesar of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) put a direct question to her, “If Pakistan is going to default?”

“Alhamdulillah [Thank God], there is no such possibility. Yes, we were worried when we took over the government [in April] because at that time the IMF programme was suspended and the avenues of getting external finances were closed for us,” said the minister.


However, she claimed, the situation had improved a lot after the government took some “very difficult decisions” and revival of the IMF programme.

Ms Pasha said it was a fact that the country in the past was unable to borrow money from other multilateral and bilateral agencies and even commercial market to finance its external needs due to the suspension of IMF programme.

However, she pointed out, after the successful seventh and eighth reviews of the IMF programme, there was no immediate threat of Pakistan going to default. Instead, she claimed, the country’s exports had improved, foreign remittances were coming and foreign direct investment was getting better.

The minister stated that Pakistan was now on the IMF’s track and committed to its programme.

In response to another question, Ms Pasha informed the house that at present Pakistan’s 50 per cent economy was estimated to be undocumented. However, while quoting different research studies, she said the size of Pakistan’s informal economy was estimated to be 35.6pc.

According to the World Bank, she said, the informal sector was one-third of the country’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

She said efforts were being made to enhance the size of formal economy, adding that a well-structured taxation policy and effective enforcement thereof could play an important role in achieving this objective. The government was making all out efforts to bring reforms to the tax collection system in a bid to generate maximum income to create facilities for taxpayers.

The minister stressed the need for developing a civic sense in every Pakistani so that he or she should pay due taxes honestly.

She lamented that ******tan’s tax-to-GDP ratio was only 9pc, which was considered to be low in the world.

Forex reserves

Meanwhile, in a written reply to a question of anot*h*er PPP MNA Shamim Ara Panhwar, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar informed the house that the total value of the country’s foreign exch*a*nge reserves stood at $13,721.9 million on Nov 4. Giving a break-up, he said, the foreign exchange reser*ves held by the State Bank stood at $7,957.9m and by commercial banks at $5,764m.

Responding to questions about the country’s foreign debt, Minister for Economic Affairs Sardar Ayaz Sadiq told the house that the previous Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf government had taken $47,105.85m loans between August 2018 and April 2022.

According to Mr Sadiq, the foreign loans and aid received by the present government from April 11, 2022 to Sept 30, 2022 amounted to $5,665.83m.

In response to a query, Minister for Privatisation Abid Hussain Bhayo informed the lawmakers that Services International Hotel, Lahore; property owned by the Federal Board of Revenue in Faisalabad; Heavy Electrical Complex, Taxila; Pakistan Steel Mills, Karachi; National Power Parks Management Co. Ltd and House Building Finance Company were on the list of active privatisation projects.

Moreover, he said, the privatisation of Pakistan Re-Insurance Company; First Women Bank Limited; Republic Motors land at Lahore and electric supply companies in Faisalabad, Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Multan, Peshawar, Hyderabad, Quetta, Sukkur and Tribal Electric Supply Company was also under the government’s consideration.

Published in Dawn, November 19th, 2022
 
Pakistan’s default risk worsens
CDS spikes by 30 percentage points in a week to 93% ahead of debt repayment

KARACHI:
The perception of Pakistan’s risk of default has worsened with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) surging by 30 percentage points in a week to 93% on Monday ahead of the repayment of $1 billion for a maturing international bond early next month.

According to a research house, the CDS had been at 4.2% in January 2021.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and many financial experts have reiterated that Pakistan will not default on any of the international payments and that volatility in the CDS had nothing to do with the country’s default risk.

However, a section of global and local experts and bond investors saw the rise in the CDS as a threat to their receivables.

Yields (rate of return) on the $1 billion international bond (Sukuk), which is maturing on December 5, 2022, soared to 120% on Monday from around 96% on Friday, indicating the investors’ lack of confidence in Pakistan whether it would be able to repay the maturing debt.

The yield was hovering at less than 10% before the Covid-19 outbreak in February 2020 in Pakistan, when the investors had high confidence in Pakistan’s capacity to repay them.

Yields on the other two bonds worth a total of $2 billion maturing in 2024 and 2025 also increased during the day.

The developments came amid a delay in the ninth review of Pakistan’s economy by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which partly blocked the foreign currency flows into the country.

Accordingly, the foreign exchange reserves depleted to a critically low level of $8 billion against over $20 billion in August 2021, weakening the country’s capacity to make international payments.

Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Tahir Abbas said that the “CDS is a premium that investors pay to insure their investment in bonds against the risk of default”. “This, however, should not be taken as an indicator of the risk of default.”

He hoped that Pakistan would receive billions of dollars in loans from the multilateral and bilateral creditors in December 2022. “Pakistan is expected to receive $6 billion to $8 billion from the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Saudi Arabia and in flood relief,” he said.

“Yes, some of the loans are attached with the clearance of IMF’s ninth review,” he said, adding that political uncertainty had added to the volatility. However, things would get normalised soon.

Rupee slides

The slow inflow of foreign loans compared to the estimates during July-October 2022 mounted pressure on the rupee against the
US dollar.

The domestic currency maintained its downtick for the sixth successive working day, falling by 0.22% (or Rs0.49) to a new six-week low at Rs223.66 against the greenback in the inter-bank market on Monday.

Pakistan could receive only $4.2 billion in new loans in the first four months of current fiscal year compared to estimates of around $7 billion, said Abbas.

The pressure on the rupee would go away with the receipt of new loans. The currency would stay around current levels in the short run, he said.

Express Tribune
 
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has rejected reports that Pakistan was facing default risk, saying according to Bloomberg it only stood at 10 per cent “as opposed to the claims of 93%”.

The perception of Pakistan’s risk of default worsened with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) surging by 30 percentage points in a week to 93% on Monday ahead of the repayment of $1 billion for a maturing international bond early next month.

According to a research house, the CDS had been at 4.2% in January 2021.

However, the finance minister on Friday shared a purported infographic of Bloomberg about the estimated default probability in emerging markets.

“Bloomberg pitches Pakistan’s one year probability of default at a low of 10% as opposed to a highly dubious number of 93% circulated by an unscrupulous local political leader a few days ago,” he said while referring to the claims of PTI Chairman Imran Khan.
 
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has rejected reports that Pakistan was facing default risk, saying according to Bloomberg it only stood at 10 per cent “as opposed to the claims of 93%”.

The perception of Pakistan’s risk of default worsened with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) surging by 30 percentage points in a week to 93% on Monday ahead of the repayment of $1 billion for a maturing international bond early next month.

According to a research house, the CDS had been at 4.2% in January 2021.

However, the finance minister on Friday shared a purported infographic of Bloomberg about the estimated default probability in emerging markets.

“Bloomberg pitches Pakistan’s one year probability of default at a low of 10% as opposed to a highly dubious number of 93% circulated by an unscrupulous local political leader a few days ago,” he said while referring to the claims of PTI Chairman Imran Khan.

Let's hope Ishaq Dar is right for the sake of Pakistan's future.
 
SBP chief assures Sukuk repayment on schedule
Central Bank governor says forex reserves will not take a hit from the debt repayment

ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan arranged additional foreign currency reserves to make the forthcoming repayment of $1 billion against the maturing of a 5-year Sukuk on December 5, 2022, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad said on Friday.

Ahmad was quoted as saying at an analyst briefing on the latest monetary policy statement that the country’s foreign exchange reserves would remain immune to the impact of the payment of the debt instrument and would not take any hit.

“The repayment would be made on December 2, 2022, three days ahead the maturity of the debt instrument on December 5, 2022,” Ahmad was quoted as saying. “Accordingly, the reserves will not take hit from the repayment and will remain immune,” he added.

On the contrary, the reserves were expected to improve in the current fiscal year, 2023, the central bank government told analysts. “The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is scheduled to lend $500 million on Tuesday [November 29].”

Pakistan’s reserves have depleted to a critically low level of $7.83 billion in the week ended November 18, 2022, coming down from more than $20 billion in August 2021. The current forex position is barely enough for six-week import cover.

The continuous depletion in the reserves made global investors anxious about their receivable. Accordingly, the Sukuk yield [rate of return] had spiked much over 150%, while the risk of default on repayment measured through 5-year currency default risk (CDS) hit a record high of 123% earlier this week.

Later in the week, however, the yield and the CDS declined sharply. Ahmad said the country would continue to make repayments on time whether it would be a commercial loan or against maturing debt instruments like Eurobond and Sukuk. “Pakistan has successfully paid off $1.8 billion along in November 2022,” he added.

Pakistan is estimated to have arranged a total $34 billion in rollover and new loans to meet requirements for international payments and improve foreign currency reserves in the current fiscal year. “About $7 billion rollover is confirmed, while other are in process,” Ahmad said.

However, he cautioned that the foreign exchange reserves by end of fiscal 2023 might not be as high as $16 billion level which was initially expected at start of the year, but it would likely be much higher than the current numbers.

Pakistan is not relying only on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme as debt rollover and inflows from bilateral and multilateral creditors are also expected to support foreign exchange reserves. Ahmad said that talks between the finance ministry and the IMF were in progress regarding the ninth review of the domestic economy under its $6.5 billion loan programme.

Express Tribune
 
PAKISTAN’S ‘DEFAULT RISK’ REACHES ALARMING LEVELS, ADMITS MIFTAH ISMAIL

KARACHI: Criticising his party-led federal government, Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) leader and former federal finance minister Miftah Ismail has claimed that Pakistan is on the verge of ‘default’ as risk has reached a dangerous level.

Miftah Ismail in one of his articles claimed rejected the claim of the incumbent Finance Minister Ishaq Dar regarding the economy and clearly said that the risk of bankruptcy of Pakistan has increased to a dangerous level. “Now the government has no room for error.”

Miftah Ismail further said that even after paying off the bonds in December, the risk of bankruptcy will not end. The PML-N stalwart went on to say that government has no right to criticize PTI or anyone else if it does not do the right thing.

The former minister in his article described the devaluation of the rupee as a major problem in the country’s economy and wrote that today there is a large and constant gap between the open market and interbank exchange rates.

The former finance minister has advised his government that now is the time to prioritize national interest over political interest.

If the current government is unable to do the right thing for the country, then it has no right to criticize PTI or anyone else, he maintained.

What did Ishaq Dar say?

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said that there is less than 10% probability of Pakistan’s default as per Bloomberg’s analysis.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar ruled out the risks of Pakistan’s default and said, “Bloomberg pitches Pakistan’s one-year probability of default at a low of 10% as opposed to a highly dubious number of 93% circulated by an unscrupulous local political leader a few days ago.”

“Pakistan will InshaAllah continue to honour its all financial commitments on time,” he added.

ARY
 
PAKISTAN’S ‘DEFAULT RISK’ REACHES ALARMING LEVELS, ADMITS MIFTAH ISMAIL

KARACHI: Criticising his party-led federal government, Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) leader and former federal finance minister Miftah Ismail has claimed that Pakistan is on the verge of ‘default’ as risk has reached a dangerous level.

Miftah Ismail in one of his articles claimed rejected the claim of the incumbent Finance Minister Ishaq Dar regarding the economy and clearly said that the risk of bankruptcy of Pakistan has increased to a dangerous level. “Now the government has no room for error.”

Miftah Ismail further said that even after paying off the bonds in December, the risk of bankruptcy will not end. The PML-N stalwart went on to say that government has no right to criticize PTI or anyone else if it does not do the right thing.

The former minister in his article described the devaluation of the rupee as a major problem in the country’s economy and wrote that today there is a large and constant gap between the open market and interbank exchange rates.

The former finance minister has advised his government that now is the time to prioritize national interest over political interest.

If the current government is unable to do the right thing for the country, then it has no right to criticize PTI or anyone else, he maintained.

What did Ishaq Dar say?

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said that there is less than 10% probability of Pakistan’s default as per Bloomberg’s analysis.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar ruled out the risks of Pakistan’s default and said, “Bloomberg pitches Pakistan’s one-year probability of default at a low of 10% as opposed to a highly dubious number of 93% circulated by an unscrupulous local political leader a few days ago.”

“Pakistan will InshaAllah continue to honour its all financial commitments on time,” he added.

ARY

this is very concerning
 
Pakistan repays $1b Sukuk, dismisses perception of default
Payment was made three days ahead of schedule

KARACHI:
Pakistan has successfully made a repayment of $1 billion against a matured international Sukuk (Shariah-compliant bond) three days ahead of schedule on Friday, December 2, dismissing the perception of its default on the payment.

As per the actual schedule, the country was to return the maturing investment in the US dollar-denominated global bond on Monday.

"Yes, we have made the payment of $1 billion," State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Spokesperson Abid Qamar confirmed to The Express Tribune.

The bank has made the payment to Citigroup which would transfer the funds onward to the investors.

Earlier, the risk of default – measured through a 5-year credit default swap (CDS) – hit a record high of 123% last month, building strongly on the perception that the country would fail to arrange the payment amid its low foreign exchange reserves.

CDS is an insurance derivative that covers the risk of default on the repayment. Experts, however, said this was an ill-liquid and low-volume traded derivative. A little trade in CDS had built a wrong perception of default on the repayment.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, former finance minister Miftah Ismail, and SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad reiterated Pakistan would not default on any of its international payments and it would make all payments as per schedule. "It has more than the required foreign currency reserves," Ahmad said last month.

The perception about Pakistan's likely default formed when Sri Lanka defaulted on its global bond repayments after its reserves diminished earlier this year. The nation faced an acute shortage of medicines, petroleum products, and foods as well as a political crisis.

Comparing Colombo with Islamabad on the repayment capacity, an expert said Pakistan had a small share of 7-8% of its total foreign debt through floating international bonds like Eurobond and Sukuk. The rest of the foreign debt was commercial, multilateral and bilateral which can be and has been rolled over from time-to-time.

On the contrary, Sri Lanka had acquired more than half of its foreign debt through floating international bonds which cannot be rolled over and repayment was a must to avoid default.

Pakistan is under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) $6.5 billion loan programme which is tantamount to a guarantee against default on international payments.

Islamabad has arranged the required financing worth $32-34 billion from international creditors for the ongoing fiscal year (July-June) 2022-23. This includes a $21.1 billion debt as well as financing the current account deficit and improvement in foreign exchange reserves.

Saudi Arabia extended the period of its deposits worth $3 billion at the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday, the same day that Pakistan paid off the $1 billion debt.

SBP Governor Ahmad has said they have arranged additional foreign exchange and thus, the repayment of $1 billion would not impact foreign exchange reserves.

The country's foreign exchange reserves have depleted to a critically low level of $7.5 billion at present due to the repayment of maturing debt and financing the current account deficit on regular basis. This is barely enough for a five to six-week import cover. The reserves had stood at $20 billion 15 months ago in August 2021.

Express Tribune
 
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