Japan offers India soft loan for $15 billion bullet train in edge over China

[IndYeah1]

And how many high speed rail lines or networks are there in the USA?

Not sure if you are based in the US - but its a widely acknowledged fact here that the business lobbies - airline industries etc, in the US are not interested in competing with improved high-speed rail from Amtrak, which is government owned. In spite of this, Amtrak offers a "pseudo-high speed" option, called Acela in the Boston-NYC-Washington DC corridor which is both popular and profitable. Apart from entrenched lobbying, the US has another problem with NIMBY-ism - where the towns along the proposed corridors are populated and would not want the disturbance of a high speed rail going past their "backyard". India wouldn't face this problem because it doesn't have highly populated or built-up suburbs along the proposed corridors. It is orders of magnitude cheaper to buy up the additional land tracts along the new high speed corridor in India.

Besides, to use your own words, comparisons with building and placing satellites into orbit "is a facetious and factually inaccurate argument". Satellites benefit the whole country, the rich and poor alike, but providing services such as telecommunications, weather forecasting (critical for farmers), crop information, locating mineral resources etc.

No one is saying that bullet trains in a 3rd world country like India will not bring benefits, but the point is that it's the well off that will benefit the most by shaving a few hours off their journey times, whereas investing similar amounts will provide far more tangible, and actual life changing benefits to tens of millions. It's a case of priorities. But then again, it's the well off chest thumpers, more interested in prestige projects that are designed to 'impress the west', and who stand to benefit the most, that make the final decisions (which, to be fair, is the case everywhere, even in many western countries).

If your read my post(s), you would see that I agree that bullet trains should not come at the cost of other required improvements. But you are basing your argument on a lot of uninformed assumptions about the Indian rail situation. The biggest point that you keep missing, is that its not a question of pursuing one over the other. The railway budgets for the last few years and the upcoming years, already has allocated massive amounts to network improvements. I have personally seen the steady improvements in quality of service that is happening. Bottomline, India is in a position to afford prestige projects, without sacrificing upgrades to existing service. Especially when over 80% of the project is being funded by the Japanese at a ridiculous 0.1% term over 50 years. If you understand basics of macro-economics, that's essentially free money.

And secondly, There is a very solid business case for high speed rail in India, and the demand exists. The ticket prices from the faster trains facilitate lower cost tickets for the masses - this is actually already the case in India today. India runs over 100 so-called "express" trains - Rajdhani, Shatabdi etc, that cost about 25% the cost of airfare - and proceeds from those tickets sustain the subsidized fares for all trains. You have no idea how quickly the tickets across 1st class, 2nd class, etc consistently sell out for these trains. There is every reason to expect that the bullet trains will continue along the same lines, creating a virtuous cycle of increasing use at the high end, which enables the railways to continue providing subsidized service at the lower end.

We haven't even talked about the environmental benefits of these trains, every passenger that travels on these trains, is one less on an airplane that flies using carbon-based fuels, which have to be imported by India, and pollute the air. Any economist, environmentalist or urban planner knows that high-speed rail is a win-win investment, provided the population density and usage factors exist, and the country can afford to make the investment.

 

[Napa]

No one is saying that bullet trains in a 3rd world country like India will not bring benefits, but the point is that it's the well off that will benefit the most by shaving a few hours off their journey times, whereas investing similar amounts will provide far more tangible, and actual life changing benefits to tens of millions.

As you yourself are from a group of countries which some Westerners derisively labeled at the 3rd world, it is odd to see you use the same nomenclature.

It's a case of priorities. But then again, it's the well off chest thumpers, more interested in prestige projects that are designed to 'impress the west', and who stand to benefit the most, that make the final decisions (which, to be fair, is the case everywhere, even in many western countries).

Infrastructure, efficient legal framework and rule of law (security) are the three things a government should do. High speed trains are part of infrastructure.

 

[IndYeah1]

As you yourself are from a group of countries which some Westerners derisively labeled at the 3rd world, it is odd to see you use the same nomenclature.



Infrastructure, efficient legal framework and rule of law (security) are the three things a government should do. High speed trains are part of infrastructure.

His problem is is his lack of knowledge on the Indian railways. In his ignorance, he probably thinks its the same as in Pakistan.

 

[Napa]

And how many high speed rail lines or networks are there in the USA?

Not sure if you are based in the US - but its a widely acknowledged fact here that the business lobbies - airline industries etc, in the US are not interested in competing with improved high-speed rail from Amtrak, which is government owned. In spite of this, Amtrak offers a "pseudo-high speed" option, called Acela in the Boston-NYC-Washington DC corridor which is both popular and profitable. Apart from entrenched lobbying, the US has another problem with NIMBY-ism - where the towns along the proposed corridors are populated and would not want the disturbance of a high speed rail going past their "backyard".

India has a population density 10 times that of the US. Rather than the US, a better comparison for India would be Europe. The French TGV system and the German ICE high speed trains have been running for almost 30 years now.

 

[IndYeah1]

India has a population density 10 times that of the US. Rather than the US, a better comparison for India would be Europe. The French TGV system and the German ICE high speed trains have been running for almost 30 years now.

Even then, there is a strong case to be made for high-speed rail in regions of the US where the population density is high - the Northeast and California coastal regions. The success of Acela shows that the demand exists. That train is barely a few mph faster than the Indian Shatabdi trains. That just tells you the sorry state of rail transport in the US. And there is overwhelming evidence that trains are an economically viable investment. Just look at property values in towns that have train connectivity to NYC, and their neighboring towns that don't. Mass transit is not fashionable in the US. But that's an entirely different discussion.

 

[Buffet]

Good for Indians. Money is pretty much free and there is a huge grace period and only then any loan has to be paid. I am pretty sure that India will have many more high speed trains in coming decades. If I am not wrong then japan did Delhi metro and then Indians have lots of metro in 15-20 cities now.

For a dense country like India, It make sense to go for high speed trains. Money is the main problem, but it's pretty much a free money.

 

[Yossarian]

As you yourself are from a group of countries which some Westerners derisively labeled at the 3rd world, it is odd to see you use the same nomenclature.

His problem is is his lack of knowledge on the Indian railways. In his ignorance, he probably thinks its the same as in Pakistan.

Ignorance must be bliss in your world.

You know what they say about those who a.s.s.u.m.e. I think I'll leave it at that.

 

[IndYeah1]

Ignorance must be bliss in your world.

You know what they say about those who a.s.s.u.m.e. I think I'll leave it at that.

No need to assume, your posts reflect your level of knowledge on Railways in India.

 

[Napa]

It's a case of priorities. But then again, it's the well off chest thumpers, more interested in prestige projects that are designed to 'impress the west', and who stand to benefit the most, that make the final decisions (which, to be fair, is the case everywhere, even in many western countries).

Ignorance must be bliss in your world.

Speaking of ignorance, you should develop a bit more awareness of the world before passing judgement. You think that an Indian high speed rail is a "prestige projects that are designed to 'impress the west'". Really?

Here are some facts about air travel in India.

The number of air passengers increased from 1.40 crores in 2000-01 to 13.5 crores (both domestic and international). That is, 16.3 percent growth annually. During 2015-16, this growth has been 21.6 percent and 9 percent in domestic and international passengers respectively.[13] India is the third largest domestic civil aviation market in the world and is projected to become overall third largest aviation market by March 2018.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_in_India#Market_Size

High speed rail is an absolute necessity as an alternative to air travel. It requires a larger investment, but is less expensive to operate besides being more convenient and comfortable. Given that air travel is exploding in India, it makes eminent sense to have high speed rail in India.

I seem to remember posts from you indicating Pakistani roots.

 

[jusarrived]

The interest rate is largely irrelevant if most of the equipment has to be bought from the country providing the loans, because you're removing the competitive factor in obtaining the best/cheapest prices, ie equipment suppliers from other countries bidding lower prices.

So what you save in interest rates is offset by higher prices.

Akin to, say, buying a car from a dealer on hire purchase at, supposedly, "0%" interest rate, versus negotiating and buying with cash. Usually works out cheaper to get the loan from a bank (if you can), at normal bank rates, and then negotiate and buy the car with cash.

On a side note:

This is also the problem with "aid" provided to 3rd world countries by western countries. The "aid" has strings attached, such as the money has to be spent on buying the products and services from the country providing the "aid".

It also has a side factor in that in the long term the "aid" receiving country also becomes dependent upon the "aid" donating countries suppliers (for after sales support and maintenance).

This also the case with military "aid".

you saying getting a discount is better than a 0% interest loan on 15billion dollars , something like a 50% discount or one bullet train free with another ?
makes complete sense !!

 

[jusarrived]

It's the story all over the 3rd world countries. Prestige projects that benefit those well off, at the expense of the masses who's lives could be improved to a far greater extent with the same level of investment.

Shaving a few hours on journey times for a few tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of the well off ( - they have to be well off in order to afford the ticket prices), is far more important than providing half-decent railways for the other 20+ million that use Indian railways on a daily basis.

And oh, the disruption caused to farmers and communities through which the railway lines run and the trains speed along at 300+ km per hour, but none of them can get on these bullet trains since they don't stop at stations, bar one or two, on it's route. They wouldn't be "bullet" trains that shave off hours if they have to stop frequently at stations along the way. Like window shopping but knowing you can't get in/allowed in even if you have the money to buy the products being sold.

Indias domestic air traffic is over 100 million which is more than Japans . So the bullet train affording population is potentially double or more of that considering it will be cheaper and importantly these numbers will continue to grow . You cannot grow as a country ignoring the rich , middle class or the poor . While the poor have to be taken care off , the relatively well off are the ones which generate money for the country .

 

[Napa]

You cannot grow as a country ignoring the rich , middle class or the poor . While the poor have to be taken care off , the relatively well off are the ones which generate money for the country .

This is an important point. India's critics keep asking "Why space program, 50% of the population with mobile phones, why bullet trains, why ... instead of toilets?". Development happens simultaneously. Holding back on bullet trains is not going to make the country develop faster. India has tried Socialism for the first 40 years after independence, and the result was 61% below the poverty line. After economic liberalization that has fallen to 25%. So holding back the development of the top sector is not going to benefit the country.

As for toilets, out here in the US, my friends often go on week long kayaking trips in the Canadian wilderness and do without them. It is actually more pleasant to do one's business out in the open than in a stinky toilet

Hardly surprising that many rural Indians prefer phones to toilets. That's the way capitalism works, you let the consumer choose and respect that choice.

 

[Yossarian]

As for toilets, out here in the US, my friends often go on week long kayaking trips in the Canadian wilderness and do without them. It is actually more pleasant to do one's business out in the open than in a stinky toilet

Hardly surprising that many rural Indians prefer phones to toilets. That's the way capitalism works, you let the consumer choose and respect that choice.

And there you have it folks. Indians lack of toilets is because

"...many rural Indians prefer phones to toilets"

since

"It is actually more pleasant to do one's business out in the open than in a stinky toilet "

 

[Napa]

And there you have it folks. Indians lack of toilets is because since

I assume that since you know better about what is good for the rural Indian poor better than they do, you launch an agitation to have their mobile phones confiscated and they be forced to buy toilets instead.

Btw, it has not escaped my attention that you completely ignored the statistics for the Indian aviation industry in response to your slam that Indian high speed rail was one of "prestige projects that are designed to 'impress the west'". Maybe when you called India "Third World" you actually meant "Third World's Largest Aviation Industry" but I doubt it.

 

[Yossarian]

you saying getting a discount is better than a 0% interest loan on 15billion dollars , something like a 50% discount or one bullet train free with another ?
makes complete sense !!

Appears you don't know much about business negotiations with suppliers and vendors if that's your level of knowledge in such matters. Why do you think governments and corporate customers invite tenders from suppliers if not to get the best deal, either in the form of direct savings on reduced prices or additional services and guarantees, all of which ultimately means savings on the bottom line?

If a supplier knows that that the client has done a deal committing the client to using that supplier and it's sister companies as the sole suppliers, and competion form other suppliers is excluded as part of the agreement, then the supplier is free to charge the "full price", which everyone knows is an inflated price set so as to leave room for offering discounts and reductions to a potential customer to convince them they are getting a better deal, and are being given special treatment, to dissuade them from buying from a competitor.

In this case, the agreements means that the Japanese suppliers of equipment and rolling stock will have no competitors, they can charge the "full", ie inflated, price.

 

[Yossarian]

I assume that since you know better about what is good for the rural Indian poor better than they do, you launch an agitation to have their mobile phones confiscated and they be forced to buy toilets instead.

Btw, it has not escaped my attention that you completely ignored the statistics for the Indian aviation industry in response to your slam that Indian high speed rail was one of "prestige projects that are designed to 'impress the west'". Maybe when you called India "Third World" you actually meant "Third World's Largest Aviation Industry" but I doubt it.

It's ok, it's ok. You explanation is sufficient.

.... It is actually more pleasant to do one's business out in the open than in a stinky toilet

Hardly surprising that many rural Indians prefer phones to toilets. ......

Unless of course you're suggesting that your comment about "doing one's business out in the open ..." should also apply to the Indian aviation industry?

Btw, it has not escaped my attention that you completely ignored the statistics for the Indian aviation industry

Incidentally, you are making up a baseless accusation by accusing me of this:

you launch an agitation to have their mobile phones confiscated and they be forced to buy toilets instead.

Go back and re-read the post. I was quoting you. Nowhere did I say what you're claiming.

I suggest you don't make any more false accusations in the future.

 

[IndYeah1]

Appears you don't know much about business negotiations with suppliers and vendors if that's your level of knowledge in such matters. Why do you think governments and corporate customers invite tenders from suppliers if not to get the best deal, either in the form of direct savings on reduced prices or additional services and guarantees, all of which ultimately means savings on the bottom line?

If a supplier knows that that the client has done a deal committing the client to using that supplier and it's sister companies as the sole suppliers, and competion form other suppliers is excluded as part of the agreement, then the supplier is free to charge the "full price", which everyone knows is an inflated price set so as to leave room for offering discounts and reductions to a potential customer to convince them they are getting a better deal, and are being given special treatment, to dissuade them from buying from a competitor.

In this case, the agreements means that the Japanese suppliers of equipment and rolling stock will have no competitors, they can charge the "full", ie inflated, price.

You keep repeating this theoretical argument when it simply does not apply in this case. There aren't dozens of other potential suppliers that can be relied on to source high-speed rail. This was a tripartite choice between Japan, China and France. And even if you overlook the 'free money' that the Japanese are offering, they do have the best bullet train tech in the business. If some minor portion of the contract is fulfilled by a Japanese company at "full" price as opposed to some possible discount, the overall deal terms pretty much guarantee that Indian Railways are getting high speed rail installed at pennies on the dollar.

 

[cricketjoshila]

Be it Mars mission or be it Indias own GPS or Bullet trains, expect posters to talk about toilets in India.

 

[IndYeah1]

Be it Mars mission or be it Indias own GPS or Bullet trains, expect posters to talk about toilets in India.

They need something to sustain their inferiority/superiority complex.

 

[R0H1T]

You keep repeating this theoretical argument when it simply does not apply in this case. There aren't dozens of other potential suppliers that can be relied on to source high-speed rail. This was a tripartite choice between Japan, China and France. And even if you overlook the 'free money' that the Japanese are offering, they do have the best bullet train tech in the business. If some minor portion of the contract is fulfilled by a Japanese company at "full" price as opposed to some possible discount, the overall deal terms pretty much guarantee that Indian Railways are getting high speed rail installed at pennies on the dollar.

I think that's debatable, the Shinkasen have 0 fatalities in over 3/4 decades of them running. They are by far the safest, sure not the fastest since that'd be Maglev, a tech stolen by you know who from their European counterparts.

Besides going above 400 kmph poses greater risks & might be expensive & harder to achieve in our highly congested nation. An avg speed of 350 kmph is nice since trains don't usually have to suffer from traffic, that we face on roads.

 

[Yossarian]

Be it Mars mission or be it Indias own GPS or Bullet trains, expect posters to talk about toilets in India.

Considering that it was your fellow Indian poster (albeit living in the USA) that brought up the topic of toilets .....

As for toilets, out here in the US, my friends often go on week long kayaking trips in the Canadian wilderness and do without them. It is actually more pleasant to do one's business out in the open than in a stinky toilet

Hardly surprising that many rural Indians prefer phones to toilets. That's the way capitalism works, you let the consumer choose and respect that choice.

 

[Syed1]

Be it Mars mission or be it Indias own GPS or Bullet trains, expect posters to talk about toilets in India.

I dont know why but I found this post very funny )

 

[Yossarian]

They need something to sustain their inferiority/superiority complex.

Shouldn't be saying that about your fellow Indian posters considering that it was an Indian poster who brought up the topic of Indian toilets.

As for toilets, out here in the US, my friends often go on week long kayaking trips in the Canadian wilderness and do without them. It is actually more pleasant to do one's business out in the open than in a stinky toilet

Hardly surprising that many rural Indians prefer phones to toilets. That's the way capitalism works, you let the consumer choose and respect that choice.

 

[Yossarian]

I dont know why but I found this post very funny )

He was talking about his fellow Indians.

As for toilets, out here in the US, my friends often go on week long kayaking trips in the Canadian wilderness and do without them. It is actually more pleasant to do one's business out in the open than in a stinky toilet

Hardly surprising that many rural Indians prefer phones to toilets. That's the way capitalism works, you let the consumer choose and respect that choice.

 

[IndYeah1]

Shouldn't be saying that about your fellow Indian posters considering that it was an Indian poster who brought up the topic of Indian toilets.

I find it funnier that you consistently choose to sidestep logical counterpoints to your ** theories, and choose to focus on tangential nonsense. When the going gets tough...

 

[IndYeah1]

I think that's debatable, the Shinkasen have 0 fatalities in over 3/4 decades of them running. They are by far the safest, sure not the fastest since that'd be Maglev, a tech stolen by you know who from their European counterparts.

Besides going above 400 kmph poses greater risks & might be expensive & harder to achieve in our highly congested nation. An avg speed of 350 kmph is nice since trains don't usually have to suffer from traffic, that we face on roads.

There's absolutely no debate. Comparing Chinese and Japanese tech is a non-starter - you should google what chaboduo means - you think Indians have a bad "chalta hai" attitude when it comes to enforcing standards in construction? Chinese are definitely world leaders when it comes to shoddy work. how many high speed train accidents have already happened in China in the handful of years that they have had those running?

And as you yourself wrote, fastest is only material for record books. For practical purposes, 350 vs 400 is a trivial issue.

 

[Napa]

Incidentally, you are making up a baseless accusation by accusing me of this:

Go back and re-read the post. I was quoting you. Nowhere did I say what you're claiming.

I suggest you don't make any more false accusations in the future.

Chill. I certainly don't consider it useful to make accusations on the internet. My initial post was addressed to [MENTION=1697]jusarrived[/MENTION] not you, and you replied to that post.

 

[Napa]

Shouldn't be saying that about your fellow Indian posters considering that it was an Indian poster who brought up the topic of Indian toilets.

"As for toilets, out here in the US, my friends often go on week long kayaking trips in the Canadian wilderness and do without them. It is actually more pleasant to do one's business out in the open than in a stinky toilet
Hardly surprising that many rural Indians prefer phones to toilets. That's the way capitalism works, you let the consumer choose and respect that choice."

Nice example of taking a statement out of context. You ignored the bit about kayaking in the Canadian wilderness.

 

[Napa]

I think that's debatable, the Shinkasen have 0 fatalities in over 3/4 decades of them running. They are by far the safest, sure not the fastest since that'd be Maglev, a tech stolen by you know who from their European counterparts.

Unfortunately from day 1, the Indian bullet trains will be a prime target of terrorists. We will just have to deal with it.

There's absolutely no debate. Comparing Chinese and Japanese tech is a non-starter - you should google what chaboduo means - you think Indians have a bad "chalta hai" attitude when it comes to enforcing standards in construction? Chinese are definitely world leaders when it comes to shoddy work. how many high speed train accidents have already happened in China in the handful of years that they have had those running?

There is also the ethical issue of using Chinese firms who have stolen their technology from foreign firms.

But years later, after helping to train the Chinese engineers and develop a local supply chain, the foreign companies said they had lost out – and their former partners were now rivals. They accused the Chinese companies of breaching contracts that had limited the use of their technology to China – with those firms now trying to sell Chinese technology abroad – and said that they had replicated rather than innovated.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...let-train-technology-was-stolen-days-after-us

http://fortune.com/2013/04/15/did-china-steal-japans-high-speed-train/

China also needs to learn to behave like a good neighbor if it wants business from India.

China transferred equipment and technology and provided scientific expertise to Pakistan's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs throughout the 1980s and 1990s, enhancing Pakistan's strength in the South Asian strategic balance. The most significant development in China-Pakistan military cooperation occurred in 1992 when China supplied Pakistan with 34 short-range ballistic M-11 missiles.[4] Recent sales of conventional weapons to Pakistan include JF-17 aircraft, JF-17 production facilities, F-22P frigates with helicopters, K-8 jet trainers, T-85 tanks, F-7 aircraft, small arms, and ammunition.[5] Beijing also built a turnkey ballistic-missile manufacturing facility near the city of Rawalpindi and helped Pakistan develop the 750-km-range, solid-fueled Shaheen-1 ballistic missile.[6]While the U.S. has sanctioned Pakistan in the past--in 1965 and again in 1990--China has consistently supported Pakistan's military modernization effort.

http://www.heritage.org/testimony/chinas-military-and-security-relationship-pakistan

The simple fact is that Japanese are better at creating technology than the Chinese. And if China continues its aggressive ways, then India and Japan should deepen their alliance to counter them.

 

[IndYeah1]

Unfortunately from day 1, the Indian bullet trains will be a prime target of terrorists. We will just have to deal with it.

Don't worry, we will hang the nimboo-mirchi on the train, and along with that "Buree Nazar waale, tera mooh kaala" sign - these 2 counter measures will ensure the safety!

China also needs to learn to behave like a good neighbor if it wants business from India.

Apart from the stuff you cited, those who are well-informed know that Pakistan's "indigenous" nuke was tested at China's Lop Nor site long before Pakistan's official test.

 

[R0H1T]

Don't worry, we will hang the nimboo-mirchi on the train, and along with that "Buree Nazar waale, tera mooh kaala" sign - these 2 counter measures will ensure the safety!





Apart from the stuff you cited, those who are well-informed know that Pakistan's "indigenous" nuke was tested at China's Lop Nor site long before Pakistan's official test.

They are also the ones who sneaked in nuke tech to NK.

 

[IndYeah1]

They are also the ones who sneaked in nuke tech to NK.

You are wrong there. Some other "brotherly" country swapped nuke designs with North Korea in exchange for their No Dong missiles. Fact is funnier than fiction!

 

[R0H1T]

You are wrong there. Some other "brotherly" country swapped nuke designs with North Korea in exchange for their No Dong missiles. Fact is funnier than fiction!

Their brother or ours?

 

[IndYeah1]

Their brother or ours?

A country that had nukes but needed delivery mechanism for them, apart from aging planes that were bought and imported from an ally that was no longer as generous.

 

[shortbread]

The ticket for the bullet train will be too expensive for the people who actually use train service.

Ameer admi tou jahaz pe hi jayega..

In the UK it's cheaper to fly than catch the train! I'm talking about diesel locomotives and not cutting edge super fast electric trains.

 

[IndYeah1]

In the UK it's cheaper to fly than catch the train!

I believe that's because UK privatized sections of its train network. And those companies care about profits more than providing a service to citizens. Indian Railways is a government run organization which has priority to serve the public embedded in its operating principles.



Regardless, UK train system is a poor example. Best in class in terms of systems would be the Swiss. Best system that I have ever experienced. Haven't been to Japan yet, so can't say much about that.

 

[Bhaijaan]

Thank you Japan for your friendship

https://twitter.com/x/status/1913525539031122038