Minimum wins for a chance at the 2019 World Cup semi-finals / Wins that guarantee a semi-final slot

[zorawar]

This maybe premature but I am sure we will soon be doing all sorts of calculations and discussing various scenarios on how teams can seal a spot in the final four.

From basic calculations i think 7 Wins absolutely guarantee you a slot and 5 wins give you a outside chance with a combination of RRD etc.

Has anyone worked this out in detail?

 

[Ronaldo7]

Washouts will play a big role as well.

 

[Chokli]

Sri Lanka
Afghanistan
South Africa

are not making it.

Bangladesh look good but don't think they'll make it either


That leaves you with -

India
England
Pakistan
Australia
West Indies
New Zealand

You can rule out West Indies.

You are left with

India
England
Pakistan
Australia
New Zealand

 

[mudassir84]

7 and 6 wins will qualify straight.
5 wins will be decided between three teams.

 

[geraltofrivia]

Sri Lanka
Afghanistan
South Africa

are not making it.

Bangladesh look good but don't think they'll make it either


That leaves you with -

India
England
Pakistan
Australia
West Indies
New Zealand

You can rule out West Indies.

You are left with

India
England
Pakistan
Australia
New Zealand

How can you rule out West Indies and Bangladesh and not Pakistan who were bundled out for 105 and have a very bad NRR.

 

[Ronaldo7]

How can you rule out West Indies and Bangladesh and not Pakistan who were bundled out for 105 and have a very bad NRR.

You can't rule out windies but you can rule out BD.
Pak just beat eng this is something which BD can definitely not do.
Wi can beat most of the top teams too. BD can't.

 

[Madplayer]

How can you rule out West Indies and Bangladesh and not Pakistan who were bundled out for 105 and have a very bad NRR.

Because Pakistani fans.

 

[coy0607]

there are probably thousands of scenarios with wins/losses/ties/washouts NR...

I would think 6 wins would give a team a pretty good chance at qualification. 7 may guarantee it

 

[Rana]

Because Pakistani fans.

I have been saying this since the beginning. Pakistan is very likely to beat Australia, New Zealand and South Africa as if it were a home game.

 

[Bhaijaan]

5 with a favourable NRR

6 would definitely be enough

 

[Bhaijaan]

Even table toppers would lose 1-2 games.

 

[Captain caveman]

Early days but the semi finalist look like
England, aussies, india and NZ.
i reckon all these teams can win at least 6 games which should mean straight qualification.
Only team, i think that can ruin this is Pakistan but they are a long shot.
Also, the rain might upset who qualifies.

 

[zorawar]

If England and India win 7/8 games each and beat everyone else,
then out of the rest only 1 team can win a max of 7 games
which leaves 4th slot for a team with 6 wins almost guaranteed

since there may be some washouts etc. and a few upsets, 5 wins with good RRD should be in play

If all goes ok, we should beat Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and will need just 1 win from Ind,Aus, NZ, SA to have a chance and 2 wins to seal a spot

 

[geraltofrivia]

You can't rule out windies but you can rule out BD.
Pak just beat eng this is something which BD can definitely not do.
Wi can beat most of the top teams too. BD can't.

how do you know that? they defeated eng last world cup and actually defeated pak last year in asia cup too.

 

[Ronaldo7]

how do you know that? they defeated eng last world cup and actually defeated pak last year in asia cup too.

Defeated a weak eng side and a weak pak side. There's a HUGE difference between the 2015 and the 2019 eng side.
I'm just being realistic.

 

[Chokli]

How can you rule out West Indies and Bangladesh and not Pakistan who were bundled out for 105 and have a very bad NRR.

Mujay kya pagal kuthay ne kuta hai jo mein Pakistan who nika loon ga? )

Windies + Bangla won't be able to handle the pressure.

As much as I would like Bangla to go to the semis, they won't.

 

[zorawar]

6 wins is pretty much clinching it for me as I see it ... as long as there are a couple of washouts/upsets

 

[Chokli]

West Indies - 0 points
England - 2 Points
Sri Lanka - 1 Point
Australia - 0 Points
India - 2 Points
South Africa - 2 Points
New Zealand - 0 Points
Afghanistan - 2 Points
Bangladesh - 2 Points

I think we might be able to make it to the Semis.

If only we tuk tuked our way to a decent total vs Windies.

If there was a truly Misbah effect we would have had a batsman that batted till the 40th over.

 

[Captain caveman]

The rain is going to mess things up!
Someone going to get ___ , just like SA did in 1992!

 

[Hasan123]

South Africa wont make it seems.

 

[Mkumar825]

Defeated a weak eng side and a weak pak side. There's a HUGE difference between the 2015 and the 2019 eng side.
I'm just being realistic.

Excuse never work in cricket . Bangladesh have good chance of making semi if they beat nz today

 

[Ronaldo7]

Excuse never work in cricket . Bangladesh have good change of making semi if they beat nz today

Which they won't (beat nz)...

 

[sam_ahm]

Any chance for South Africa guys?

I think Pakistan had 3 points after 5 games in 1992, one of their lead fast bowler Waqar Younis was out injured and they started a remarkable comeback. Something for South Africa to take inspiration from.

 

[Harshu814]

Any chance for South Africa guys?

I think Pakistan had 3 points after 5 games in 1992, one of their lead fast bowler Waqar Younis was out injured and they started a remarkable comeback. Something for South Africa to take inspiration from.

Out of 9 matches they have already lost 3 , and most likely seem to lose against mighty australia and nz -5

Can easily win vs afg +1

Vs pak and WI it will be decided on day
So seems to me they r getting 3-4 wins so i will say no they wont make it to semis as much as we would have loved to see SAF choke in semis ,after 3 consecutive losses they have very little chance.
Even bd has better chance than saf currently

 

[Harshu814]

I think india can easily win against AFG,bangla, SL

Has good chance to beat pak,WIN

Thats 6 wins.

If top 3 gets in superior form and they even beat one of AUS,ENG,NZ
I think india has pretty good chance to qualify directly

 

[dhump]

It is still wide open there will be D/L drama and some washed out games so luck will also drag few teams into top four in the end. At the moment only South Africa looks like losing the plot, every other side is in the run, even Afghanistan on paper.

 

[dhump]

I think india can easily win against AFG,bangla, SL

Has good chance to beat pak,WIN

Thats 6 wins.

If top 3 gets in superior form and they even beat one of AUS,ENG,NZ
I think india has pretty good chance to qualify directly

It wil be a shame for India if they dont qualify plain and simple.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

Any chance for South Africa guys?

I think Pakistan had 3 points after 5 games in 1992, one of their lead fast bowler Waqar Younis was out injured and they started a remarkable comeback. Something for South Africa to take inspiration from.

They are in deep trouble. That BD loss really hurt them. They still have to play WI, PAK, NZ and Australia. They need to beat atleast 3 of them and somehow ensure that their NRR is very good at the end of that. I think this World Cup is over for them. They need a miracle.

 

[Harshu814]

It wil be a shame for India if they dont qualify plain and simple.

Ofc india will qualify , i was talking about they way they will qualify.

And ofc it will be shameful for most of teams that dont qualify,

Aus-always seems Mighty in wc

Eng-on hometurf ,getting flat pattas ,in good form

Ind-ranked 2nd ,having really good odi recorf in last 4 years

Pak-having won last icc trophy, they must qualify ,chest thumpin fans

SAF -always beast in wc league rounds,best chance to remove choker tag

Nz- after so many years ,finally seems to be a major player and has started wc in best way possible

BAN- ditto nz with a potential to become fearful cricketing side

All above teams for given reason will be really ashamed if not qualify

While last few years havent been good for SL,WIN so one can understnd if they dont qualify

And afg is taking baby steps

 

[zorawar]

Pakistan's path to SF

According to schedule: SL, AUS, IND, SA, NZ, AFG, BD

as long as they beat the minnows, they need 2 wins from the middle sequence of Aus, Ind, SA and NZ to seal it

 

[dhump]

Ofc india will qualify , i was talking about they way they will qualify.

And ofc it will be shameful for most of teams that dont qualify,

Aus-always seems Mighty in wc

Eng-on hometurf ,getting flat pattas ,in good form

Ind-ranked 2nd ,having really good odi recorf in last 4 years

Pak-having won last icc trophy, they must qualify ,chest thumpin fans

SAF -always beast in wc league rounds,best chance to remove choker tag

Nz- after so many years ,finally seems to be a major player and has started wc in best way possible

BAN- ditto nz with a potential to become fearful cricketing side

All above teams for given reason will be really ashamed if not qualify

While last few years havent been good for SL,WIN so one can understnd if they dont qualify

And afg is taking baby steps

I dont agree with marked four teams.

Pakistan is a poor team probably one of the weakest team in the world cup with horrible record in ODI since CT 2017 which was also won due to sudden moment of brilliance that is a typical Pakistani style but no one will consider them in probably top 4.

South Africa is weaker than we all imagined, New Zealand is horrible at handeling pressure as we are watching right now and Bangladesh is still minnow in their own mind and way too excited to do anything amazing.

After Ind,Aus,Eng there is slot for one of mentioned above or West Indies if any one of these top 3 teams misses out it will be a shame for them others need to fight work hard and qualify.

 

[Saj]

5 wins and perhaps that could be enough, although it may get NRR to sort it out.

 

[zorawar]

5 wins and perhaps that could be enough, although it may get NRR to sort it out.

If that happens... the WI loss will surely come back to haunt us

 

[Harshu814]

I dont agree with marked four teams.

Pakistan is a poor team probably one of the weakest team in the world cup with horrible record in ODI since CT 2017 which was also won due to sudden moment of brilliance that is a typical Pakistani style but no one will consider them in probably top 4.

South Africa is weaker than we all imagined, New Zealand is horrible at handeling pressure as we are watching right now and Bangladesh is still minnow in their own mind and way too excited to do anything amazing.

After Ind,Aus,Eng there is slot for one of mentioned above or West Indies if any one of these top 3 teams misses out it will be a shame for them others need to fight work hard and qualify.

Ofc pakistan has been poor recently ,no doubt but when you win last title called "champions" trophy and defeat probably strongest team (ENG) in wc group stage ,it does say they have what it take. Thats why it will be shameful for them if not qualify

SAF isnt weaker than all imagined ,almost all of the batsman they have has been match winner from times to time and they were really good odi side before they got destroyed by ind at home. And has really decent pace attack with tahir who was exceptional in ipl. They have suddenly lost form as a team but i can assure u they will come good and defeat one of the major teams still even if they dont qualify

Nz is coming of really good , having struggeled vs bang today doesnt mean they r not in flying colors, at the end its just win that matters,even india almost lost nidhas trophy to bangladesh but that doesnt make them not being able to handle pressure ,you win= u somehow managed pressure

Bangladesh may be minnow mentality but they sure will worry everyother team , they have lesser chance to qualify but if will be shameful for them because they r starting to call themmajor player and if they cant qualify it will all be considered farse

 

[Saj]

If that happens... the WI loss will surely come back to haunt us

Win 6 games and that won't matter

 

[amirm]

It looks like pak’s game against SL on Friday will be a washout, could that hurt pak?

 

[Ronaldo7]

Win 6 games and that won't matter

The Sri lanka match will be washed out. So how does that affect things??
Will 5wins and a NR be enough?

 

[Afridi96]

Given no match is washed out. I reckon this is the most likely scenario:

Australia, India and England should qualify, that leaves one spot. Pakistan, New Zealand and the West Indies may be fighting for that spot.

Pakistan should and needs to beat Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and I reckon we'll beat South Africa. Meaning we'll need to beat one of Australia, India or New Zealand to get to 6 wins. A win against New Zealand would almost definitely guarantee qualification for Pakistan. The two most crucial and deciding games may well be Pakistan Vs New Zealand and New Zealand Vs West Indies.

 

[Inswing]

What will be the equation if Pakistan vs SL is washed out

 

[Gabbar Singh]

It says a lot about this horrible WC format that a team can lose 3 or 4 times in the group stage yet still go on to win the tournament. You would never see that in any other sporting World Cup. It’s embarrassing that you can win a World Cup even after losing several games.

But of course we have to have the so called big 3 or 4 make the semi finals so we end up being stuck with this archaic format.

 

[Minnowbasher]

3 losses max with our net run rate.
Pakistan already lost to windies. Can afford to lose to maybe India and Australia but must beat all the other teams to reach semis.

 

[adil79]

3 losses max with our net run rate.
Pakistan already lost to windies. Can afford to lose to maybe India and Australia but must beat all the other teams to reach semis.

With SL match wash out, we can now only afford one more loss not two

 

[Ronaldo7]

With SL match wash out, we can now only afford one more loss not two

We still can afford two losses.

 

[adil79]

We still can afford two losses.

we could in total afford 3 losses + NRR if we dont have any game washout. If its a washout, we cant afford 3 losses. consider SL game to be washout, we can only afford one loss out of the next 6 games and that will probably come from india. So, all other games are kind of knockout if we want to secure semi final berth

 

[Ronaldo7]

we could in total afford 3 losses + NRR if we dont have any game washout. If its a washout, we cant afford 3 losses. consider SL game to be washout, we can only afford one loss out of the next 6 games and that will probably come from india. So, all other games are kind of knockout if we want to secure semi final berth

It really depends on the other games as well. Some other matches may be washed out too.

 

[Aman]

SA and Afghanistan are out, you can say Bangladesh and SL too given the opponents they have left.

4th spot between NZ, WI and Pakistan.

Aus, England and India are strong enough to get 5+ wins and qualify with a top 3 spot.

This was all predictable, my money is on WI. Pakistan are too inconsistent. I think WI will qualify on NRR with Pak and NZ finishing on 5 wins.

 

[adil79]

It really depends on the other games as well. Some other matches may be washed out too.

Talking about guaranteed slot as OP title, not may be

 

[Aman]

They are in deep trouble. That BD loss really hurt them. They still have to play WI, PAK, NZ and Australia. They need to beat atleast 3 of them and somehow ensure that their NRR is very good at the end of that. I think this World Cup is over for them. They need a miracle.

I feel sorry for them, they had no chance to settle and effectively are out. First game against Eng, followed by Bangladesh and India. They've had the roughest draw by far. AB was wise to retire.

 

[adil79]

From this point forward, upsets are good. The team exiting wc should win matches just to make way for pakistan

 

[Ronaldo7]

Talking about guaranteed slot as OP title, not may be

Mathematically even 7 wins may not be enough.

7x5= 35 (5 teams with 7wins each)
5th team misses out even though they had 7 wins.
2×5=10 (5 teams with 2 wins each)

 

[adil79]

Mathematically even 7 wins may not be enough.

7x5= 35 (5 teams with 7wins each)
5th team misses out even though they had 7 wins.
2×5=10 (5 teams with 2 wins each)

ok

 

[Runner Up]

[MENTION=9]Saj[/MENTION] what are the teams standing?

 

[mon858]

Dont even think about this.nmnplay every single game to win and you will make it. Team is coming together now and after beating England had the ability to beat every other team with the 2 really tough games being Australia and India. If we play to our potential we should best the rest and even with 2 more losses to Australia and India we should be in semis. Bigger risk I see is rain against lower ranked teams like srl. Let's hope that doesnt hapoen against Lower teams but j would happily take one point against Australia or India, and hope to best them in semi or final.

 

[The Viper]

6 should be enough. The WI result will hurt badly if it comes down to nrr.

 

[BDfanforever]

I feel sorry for them, they had no chance to settle and effectively are out. First game against Eng, followed by Bangladesh and India. They've had the roughest draw by far. AB was wise to retire.

Tough draw? BD plays RSA, NZ, Eng on its first 3 games. RSA is number 3 side.

RSA is still not out yet. They were expected to lose against Eng and India. Only upset was against BD. BD is not going to threaten semi spot, NZ/WI/ Pak will. RSA just need to make sure they beat those teams.

Once RSA is in semi, anything is possible. At the moment though looks pretty ominous for them.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

I feel sorry for them, they had no chance to settle and effectively are out. First game against Eng, followed by Bangladesh and India. They've had the roughest draw by far. AB was wise to retire.

Draw wasn't unfair. Look at the teams that BD, PAK and England have played. SA just never got into their groove. Even if they had, im not sure they have the quality to compete against top teams this time.

 

[ekpakistani]

Too early to call but can say this.

India - their batting is over-rated and will be found out in upcoming games. I know people here may not agree. However, before throwing any stats pls wait for them to play at least two more games.

NZ - haven't really been tested yet and if not for crucial mistakes by BD they (NZ) would have lost

For PK to qualify they should just think of winning remaining matches and beating Eng was a great effort. This confidence will take them a long way

PK, WI, ENG and IN for semis

 

[Abdullah]

So how do Pakistan make it to the semis.....

It's very simple.
Our net run rate is bad. Very bad and almost irrecoverable.
If we assume England Aus and India are the strongest teams and will qualify, we need all the rest of the competition to lose 4 games. This will mean that they can not exceed 10 points.
If we then win 4 out of our remaining 6, then we get to 11 points.

So how do our competition get to 4 losses.

SA - they are almost there (Australia to play)

WI- we need them to lose to the big 3 and SA.

NZ - need to lose to the big 3 and any 1 of WI, SA

Bang- need to lose to big 3 and job done as already lost to NZ

In none of the above have i factored that Pak will hand the 4th defeat to the above 4 teams, so we provide the cover!

We also have Afg and SL who may pick up a shock win here and there ( less likely to be against big 3 and more likely to be against our competition)

So overall I think the game against Aus is huge, and we can't afford a washout ( unless the India game too is washed out too)
And we support all the teams that play against NZ and WI for the rest of the group phase.

 

[Chokli]

No chance for the following teams -

Bangladesh
South Africa
Sri Lanka
Afghanistan

The following are all but confirmed -

India
England
Australia

The fourth spot is between -

Pakistan
West Indies
New Zealand

 

[aloo paratha]

Is there any possibility that Pakistan can get in with 3 more wins?

 

[bujhee kom]

4th spot is the interesting slot. A/E/I very likely to make SF.

 

[captain.hansolo]

West Indies - 0 points
England - 2 Points
Sri Lanka - 1 Point
Australia - 0 Points
India - 2 Points
South Africa - 2 Points
New Zealand - 0 Points
Afghanistan - 2 Points
Bangladesh - 2 Points

I think we might be able to make it to the Semis.

If only we tuk tuked our way to a decent total vs Windies.

If there was a truly Misbah effect we would have had a batsman that batted till the 40th over.

you think you will beat india? really?
what is this confidence based on?

 

[Chokli]

you think you will beat india? really?
what is this confidence based on?

Rocky bhai's vision + Fathers day + Law of averages

 

[Revolution]

It's clear .. India, England, Australia and West Indies/New Zealand are confirmed.
If miracles then will take SA to Semis.

 

[Ronaldo7]

It's clear .. India, England, Australia and West Indies/New Zealand are confirmed.
If miracles then will take SA to Semis.

Leaving out Pakistan?

 

[Revolution]

Leaving out Pakistan?

Yes.. Luck will not support always. Talent matters.

Tell me frankly do you think Pak better than Australia, india and new Zealand??

 

[Ronaldo7]

Yes.. Luck will not support always. Talent matters.

Tell me frankly do you think Pak better than Australia, india and new Zealand??

On par with NZ.
NZ just lost 4-1 against ind at home. I wouldn't rate them higher than pak.

 

[Revolution]

On par with NZ.
NZ just lost 4-1 against ind at home. I wouldn't rate them higher than pak.

Your blindness.. I am speaking reality here.

We defeated NZ because of our strong team.
Will not be same applicable to Pak.

Saw some pak fans happy for single point with Sri Lanka. This is the level of Pak cricket.

 

[Sarwar89]

There are people saying that New Zealand and Australia are already confirmed for Semi Finals. I am not sure about that.

India will beat Australia
England will beat Australia.
If they lose against Pakistan then they are in trouble since their game v New zealand will be crunch.

Same goes for Kiwiz.
England and India will beat Kiwiz.
Their games against Pakistan and Australia will determine their spot.

I think one of them will not make it to semi finals.

Pakistan just needs 2 wins from 4 matches (Aus, Ind, SA, Nzl) plus 2 further Bang and Afg
that is 8 points
we already have 3 points.
11 points will be enough.
nothing to worry.

 

[Ronaldo7]

Your blindness.. I am speaking reality here.

We defeated NZ because of our strong team.
Will not be same applicable to Pak.

Saw some pak fans happy for single point with Sri Lanka. This is the level of Pak cricket.

We drew 1-1 at home vs nz.
Also no pak fan would be happy for a single point vs sri lanka when we were the favourites.

 

[Abu_Hamza]

The issue of net run rate might come to haunt Pakistan if it gets tied on points with other teams. The washout against Sri Lanka hasnt helped their cause. A win against Sri Lanka could have given them a better prospect for reaching semi final.

Vs
Aus - ???
India - ???
Afg - Win
SA - Win
NZ - ???
BAN - Win

I guess they should win against SA, BAN and AFG and must win one more game, better if they win two. So out of 6 matches they need to win at least 4 to have any chances of reaching semi final. Infact they should aim for 5 wins coz their net run rate is too bad which might hamper their chances.

 

[Sarwar89]

The issue of net run rate might come to haunt Pakistan if it gets tied on points with other teams. The washout against Sri Lanka hasnt helped their cause. A win against Sri Lanka could have given them a better prospect for reaching semi final.

Vs
Aus - ???
India - ???
Afg - Win
SA - Win
NZ - ???
BAN - Win

I guess they should win against SA, BAN and AFG and must win one more game, better if they win two. So out of 6 matches they need to win at least 4 to have any chances of reaching semi final. Infact they should aim for 5 wins coz their net run rate is too bad which might hamper their chances.

Do you know statistics mate. Once Pakistan is on 11 Points, then NRR will be out of equation since all other teams will finish either on 10,12,14 points. Only scenario is if there is a tied Match between 2 countries or a complete washout which will not happen again in this world cup.

With 11 points, Pakistan need not to worry about NRR. Just win 4 more matches.

 

[rockyboy2018]

Here is my calculation - Pakistan is playing final.

 

[Chokli]

Here is my calculation - Pakistan is playing final.

I thought you said we will beat India + win the World Cup due to Wahab

 

[Abu_Hamza]

Do you know statistics mate. Once Pakistan is on 11 Points, then NRR will be out of equation since all other teams will finish either on 10,12,14 points. Only scenario is if there is a tied Match between 2 countries or a complete washout which will not happen again in this world cup.

With 11 points, Pakistan need not to worry about NRR. Just win 4 more matches.

This stat will go for a toss if teams finish with 12, 12 14,14 or might be 16 too . Remember what [MENTION=9]Saj[/MENTION] said, win 6 matches and get straight to semis without bothering about net run rate.

 

[Energy]

New Zealand have had early luck by playing ****** games up front. Playing Ban/Afg at the end is always high-pressure because you need to win with a 'specific run-rate', something that we suck at.

If we lose the game against Australia then it is going to be impossible for us to catch up.

 

[Sarwar89]

This stat will go for a toss if teams finish with 12, 12 14,14 or might be 16 too . Remember what [MENTION=9]Saj[/MENTION] said, win 6 matches and get straight to semis without bothering about net run rate.

Mathematically it is highly improbable if 4 teams finish on 14 16 12 12 points
10 10 11 12 14 16 looks like the probable scenario
England 16
India 14
Aus 12
Pak 11
Nzl 10
West indies 10

 

[shaaik]

For Pakistan to qualify, it would mostly like be New Zealand that Pak would be competing against for a 4th Semi Finalist Spot.

New Zealand would have to lose their all 4 big games against India,Aus, England and WI or SA. That will leave them with 10 Points.

On the other hand, Pakistan would have to win at least 4 out of their next 6 matches against ... Ind, Aus, SA, NZ, Bang & Afg.

I expect them to win against Bang & Afg. then they would have to win 2 out of the 4 games and if they manage to win 3 of those 4 then they are pretty much guaranteed a semi-final spot ...

 

[bujhee kom]

Games against Bangladesh's Sri Lanka will (largely) decide if Pakistan's semi-final fate

If we beat Lanka (we should), we will be in with a good chance. However, if we lose that game, we are not going to progress. That is the easiest 2 points available for us bar Afghanistan.

The next game is huge.

 

[Syed1]

I'll let you in on a secret.....Bangladesh are going home.



This is statement is not because of any hate for BD but out of logic and rational thought. At the moment BD have played three and won one.


They have three massive fixtures remaining, India, Australia and Pakistan. BD need atleast 2/3 wins from these fixtures. Even if we assume you somehow beat Pakistan do you really think you can beat Australia or India?


Suppose even if you somehow do 2/3 then you have to win 3/3 against SL, AFG and WI. AFG you will beat and SL will be 50/50 while WI in current form will demolish BD.


BD's only chance of semi qualification was

Beat SA
Beat NZ
Beat Pak
Beat SL
Beat Afg
Beat WI

You managed first one but then faltered against NZ. Other results also seem unlikely. BD will go home with wins against SA, SL and AFG. Not a bad tournament.