What's new

Oil price 'could double to $150 a barrel' if US and Iran go to war

WebGuru

Senior ODI Player
Joined
Mar 4, 2013
Runs
21,339
Post of the Week
3
Oil prices rose again on Monday, pushing past $70 per barrel for the first time in seven months as fears grow about a potential war between the US and Iran following the killing of a top Iranian general.

Brent crude added another 2 per cent to Friday’s gains and experts warned the price could more than double to $150 if the tense situation in the Middle East escalates to a full-blown conflict.

That would have a knock-on effect on the world economy, increasing petrol prices for consumers and putting upward pressure on the cost of a broad range of goods.

Motorists will feel the pinch, even if oil prices remain at current levels. The AA warned that at $70 a barrel, petrol could soon hit 130p a litre, its highest level since May.

The US oil price benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, also rose 1.2 per cent on Friday to $63.78 before falling back slightly.

Oil has gained strongly since Donald Trump ordered a drone attack which killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force, dramatically escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington.

The US president intensified his rhetoric further on Saturday, warning that if Iran retaliates - as it has vowed to do - American forces could attack Iranian cultural sites with no military value.

Mr Trump tweeted: “Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have.... targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD,” he wrote on Twitter.

Such provocative statements have raised fears of heightened violence in the region, and even war.

While the primary concern is for human life, conflict would also affect the world’s supply of oil, with a number of key facilities and transportation lanes seen as potential targets for Iranian retaliation.

Tehran could block off the vital Straits of Hormuz, an artery through which around a fifth of the world’s oil supplies travel. The strait between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, which is just 20 miles across at one point, was the scene of the highjacking of two oil tankers in June.

Capital Economics forecasts that a war between the US and Iran would lead to oil prices more than doubling.

“Our analysis shows that while the price of Brent could soar to as much as $150 per barrel, the rally may prove short-lived as supply networks adjust and demand falters in the wake of higher prices,” the consultancy said.

The FTSE 100 dipped 0.6 per cent on Friday to 7,576 while gold prices surged to a seven-year high as investors sought safe assets.



Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...t-iran-us-war-trump-middle-east-a9272651.html
 
Not only those who make weaponry will get rich but those who sell oil will also.
 
Pakistan meets over 70% of its energy needs through imports :(

Forget about $150 Even if the prices go up by $10 per barrel from current price of $65-70 we are still doomed because of the low reserves and deficit.
 
Pakistan meets over 70% of its energy needs through imports :(

Forget about $150 Even if the prices go up by $10 per barrel from current price of $65-70 we are still doomed because of the low reserves and deficit.

Forget about $150, any full scale war will mean you CANNOT buy oil at any price. The world economy will grind to a halt, people will lose jobs very quickly.

Not good for the world but this is Iran's only chance of hitting back hard.
 
Doomsday scenarios like this always don’t pan out
 
Doomsday scenarios like this always don’t pan out

True but the deficit will grow slightly even if the price goes back to end of last year’s coz of volume and futures.
 
True but the deficit will grow slightly even if the price goes back to end of last year’s coz of volume and futures.
US production fell last year but the horizontal drilling technology allows to ramp up production in a short time period.

Growing US exports, move away from crude to renewable energy, LNG on the rise all means that oil is not as important as it once was and hence will not see such drastic swings as we’ve seen in the past.

Finally, barring few rogue territories, Iranian oil is already off the world market. Unless there’s attacks on Arab facilities then the rise in prices wouldn’t be as high in case of war. Obviously demand will increase to fuel war machines but it shouldn’t double or triple prices
 
Last edited:
Pakistan meets over 70% of its energy needs through imports :(

Forget about $150 Even if the prices go up by $10 per barrel from current price of $65-70 we are still doomed because of the low reserves and deficit.

Asides from the move towards coal, we need to move towards LNG. The US is producing so much excess gas that they’re literally just burning off a huge chunk of it on the Texas oil fields because it’s easier and more economic for them to flare it off and waste it than actually use it. If there is more global demand for gas, you could liquefy all this gas and get it for a very cheap price from the US and Qatar
 
US production fell last year but the horizontal drilling technology allows to ramp up production in a short time period.

Growing US exports, move away from crude to renewable energy, LNG on the rise all means that oil is not as important as it once was and hence will not see such drastic swings as we’ve seen in the past.

Finally, barring few rogue territories, Iranian oil is already off the world market. Unless there’s attacks on Arab facilities then the rise in prices wouldn’t be as high in case of war. Obviously demand will increase to fuel war machines but it shouldn’t double or triple prices

Forgot to add. I don’t believe closing the strait of Hormuz is viable option for Iran
 
People seem to forget, US has still one of the largest oil reserves in the world which are not in production because they need oil prices over £100 to break even due to high costs in US compared to ME, oil hitting $200/barrel will be a wet dream for USA, the last time it went that high was due to rumors and reports, if a real war kicks in expect it to go way over £200
 
People seem to forget, US has still one of the largest oil reserves in the world which are not in production because they need oil prices over £100 to break even due to high costs in US compared to ME, oil hitting $200/barrel will be a wet dream for USA, the last time it went that high was due to rumors and reports, if a real war kicks in expect it to go way over £200

For the oil companies yes but for the economy a big issue. In an all our war, $200 is a good price, more likely to be near $500 or sales will be suspended. US economy like all economies are linked globally now.
 
Back
Top