I wrote something on this just after the WC 2015, but, may be 2 years is good enough for a revisit. Also, it's a hypothetical scenario, hence sky is the limit for imagination. To start with, I think we have to look from next CT 2017. My hunch is, PAK'll be man-handled under Azhar in AUS & the Captaincy'll go to Sarfu for next 2 ICC events - hence, this team is for May 2017 to June 2019 period. After that, we'll have another thread ....
I think, PAK's (every teams actually, I wrote something on BD as well to one of my friends recently) ODI strategy should be targeting next 2 ICC events. PAK's result in UAE is is beyond pathetic, hence there is absolutely no point building teams around UAE context.
In general, for every context; modern ODI cricket demands few fundamentals - fitness, flexibility (in terms of combination & batting order), versatile bowling options; on field street smartness, left-right combination. Better teams are built on those fundamentals - on top of that, PAK needs a mixture of youth & experience as well. For UK context (next 2 ICC events are played in early summer), we have to cover for few additional issues as well.
As a preamble, we have to consider that, it will remain as 2 balls cricket on belter of wickets, but under gloomy sky & heavy weather of early British summer - which means, it'll be difficult to survive against new ball, but games will be high scoring. There has to be a fine balance between protecting early wickets & run rate. In terms of bowling combination, I don't think spin will be a big factor, darting spin won't work either to contain - if spin, it has to be genuine wicket taking spin, that too maximum for 20 overs. English grounds are not that large, therefore in batting, batsmen with capacity to hit boundaries will be match winners (unlike AUS or UAE, where you need to run lot). Reverse swing will always be a part of ODI, but teams has to focus more on conventional usage of new ball (that's swing & seem) & conventional death bowling (yorker). The bowling combination should cover these aspects - or bowlers have to be groomed with a particular role in mind. Last but not least, a batting depth is must in ODI - this game has moved in to bat vs bat contest; even 4 WWs won't defend 245/9 in most cases these days - partially for the match context, rules; partially for every team focusing on late order batting.
Within that context, my formation for PAK will be
Openers & No. 3 - to me, role of top 3 in ODI is almost same & these are interchangeable spots - a No. 3 should be ready to open, if required. There has to be a left-right combination for opening pair - No. 3 can be either. It's not the best 2 openers, rather best left handed & best right handed opener to form the partnership. Sharjeel is a fantastic prospect for the lefti part (but, he has to improve his shot selection & defense). For the right hander, I actually will take KAkmal for next 2 years. He is around 35 now, in his best batting form - if he keeps his fitness, he is a fantastic prospect for ODI opening - a very good back-foot player with lots of experience & he has played new ball in his career & a tremendous hitter against new ball - besides, he covers as WK in case of injury. Now, a mature head as well, to guide Sharjeel - Sharjeel/Kamran is my opening pair. As back-up, I'll build Fakhar & take Azhar - Azhar is the back-up plan for few conditions, where surviving can be the best option. Babar is perfect for No. 3; should be there for next 10-12 years.
No. 4, 5 & 6: The role for No. 4 & 5 are almost same - probably No. 5 needs to be more mobile while No. 4 more compact. I'll still keep Malik & MoHa in this team, but not both in playing XI - these 2 senior player will cover for No. 4 spot & the 2nd spinner's role. I keep No. 4 open for both - whoever is in BETTER batting form should make the squad, but both will never play in same match. Sarfu is Captain, WK & No. 5.
No. 6, is one of the most critical spot in an ODI team - almost every great ODI team had one great player in that Zone (6 or 7) - Lloyd, Amarnath, Imran, Bevan, Cronje, Arjuna, MSD, Hussey .... the key for that spot is that, the player must have multi gear here. This is one spot PAK has a big gap - Malik was tried, but he is limited as well - I'll pick Umar for this spot. Still, he is the best ODI player for PAK & actually can play in duel role if he puts his mind into it. As back-up, I have lost hopes for Haris - Rizwan, Amin, Maqsood from existing lot & some new kids are back-ups here, particularly Saud, who had a fantastic start is both domestic format.
All-rounders: We have couple of batting all-rounders in Malik & MoHa. If he wants, Amin can be a very good option for the seem bowling batting all-rounders role. Imad is a fantastic T20 cricketer, but I don't see his role in ODI, particularly in UK. His bowling won't work, while he can't be taken as No. 4 batting all-rounder. May be, he can be kept in squad, but shouldn't start. Pace bowling all-rounders actually will be the determining factor - PAK must have 2/3 options for pace bowling all-rounders, who can play as 3rd pacer, and contribute with bat. I am really excited to see Fahim Ashraf in action - he is played at No.10 in recent FC match, but I think he is a very good lefti hitter, & a good user of new ball. Yamin, Amad & may be Hammad are the other options. Among new kids, I'll definitely consider Shadab & Aga Salman, but none might be ready by even 2019.
Pace bowlers - 1st condition has to be that, Irfan or Asif like single dimensional pacers are almost obsolete in Modern ODI; unless they are like MacGrath, Waquar or Donald. PAK's pace bowling options has to contribute with bat & in field for ODI. Amir is one confirmed option, for other one, I'll pick Hasan Ali. He can improve his batting, but what impresses me most is his 4 overs in last 10 - he should be groomed as the specialist finisher; may be 5 overs of the last 10. None of the current bowlers should be playing even in CT2017; therefore it has to be a fresh bunch for the reserves. This is one area I keep open for 2 years to search for. There are very good prospects, but they must be tried ahead of this 35 years average pace attack that PAK is carrying now.
Spin option: This is the most critical aspect of PAK's success. Standard of spin play in at it's lowest level, therefore any team with a good wicket taker in middle overs will dominate the game. Yasir is used pathetically by Azhar, but I'll always pick him & use just like a Test match. I don't mind, if my leggi goes for 72 in exchange of batting sides No. 3, 4 & 6. I am not sure, how good Raja Hasan will be after comeback, but he was the best Left-arm spinner of the lot, could bat a bit as well. But, in UK; unless it's a leggi; I won't pick 2nd spinner.
Therefore, my 15 member team for 2018 UK tour (ODI - hypothetically, I am taking a mid point of 2 ICC events) will be -
Sharjeel, KAkmal, Babar
Malik/Amin/MoHa (my choice Amin, as he is lefti), Sarfy+*, Umar
Fahim
Amir, Hasan, Yasir, a new ball pacer.
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Saud, Amin/MoHa/Malik, Yamin, Amad or a new Pace bowler. 2 Akmals in a team is never great idea, but we don't have much options actually.
As I said, this is a hypothetical team - I constructed the team on the condition & type of players with best chance of success. Obviously, there can be few changes as form, fitness doesn't remain same for 2 years period; also there can be some outstanding youngster emerging (or like KAkmal, some past player can have a bumper season) - but, this should be the frame for PAK ODI Team - based on wicket/condition - Imad might come for Fahim or a 2nd spinner might come for the pacer ........... but the composition should be similar
4 specialist batsmen with 1 left-right opening pair (Not necessarily all 4 to bat at 1, 2, 3 & 4)
1 batting all-rounder, who makes the team on batting merit
1 WK on batting merit
2 all-rounders to fit in the match context (a combination of pacer, spinner)
3 Specialist bowlers on absolute bowling merit - at least 1 leggi. But, good to have if the bowlers can bat - for PAK's benefit, all 3 bowlers of my choice (Amir, Hasan, Yasir) are decent with bat.
4 squad member should be complementing the variation of attack.
