Recently, Convict came up with an idea for possible Format of WC 2019. That’s one way of looking at the Format, but honestly speaking, I didn't like it that much. I don’t think 18 team Cricket WC is good for quality cricket, a lot of matches ‘ll be one-sided, may be barring one or two surprises. Also, the length of the tournament might be too long to keep the focus. Considering the WC 2019 to be played in UK, with longer day lights & short travelling distances, what about the following idea?
I had 4 objectives before chalking out the format –
1. To ensure that the best sides are in WC, 4 of the best 5 sides are in SF (unlike 2003) & top 2 sides are in final
2. To ensure that better sides don’t get eliminated just for 1 bad day, alike 2007
3. To ensure that most preliminary group matches are meaningful & every match even against minnows are also accounted for, unlike 1999
4. To ensure that the tournament doesn't become too long like 2007, while at the same time it’s not too stressful for the players & the broadcasting money is maximized
The skeleton is –
- 3 Groups of 4 teams each for Phase 1, total 12 teams – Total matches - 18 (6 X 3)
- Top 3 teams from every group goes to Phase 2, with the group match results between same group teams advanced, carried forward – 9 teams advances to Phase 2
- Each team plays each other in Phase 2, with the results carried forward from Phase 1 matches
- Match played by each team in Phase 2 – 6, match accounted for Phase 2 standing – 8. Total matches – 27 [(9 X 6 )/2]
- Knock Out stages ‘ll be played like IPL Eliminator Format – Top 2 plays for First SF, Bottom 2 for Eliminator. Winner of Eliminator ‘ll take looser of 1st SF for the right of remaining Final Spot. Total matches – 4
- Total WC matches – 49 (18+27+4)
- Total Duration of WC: Phase 1: 10 + 1 day gap. Phase 2: 21 + 1 day gap; KO - 9 days. = 42 days. These is covering conditions:
o Every match has a reserve day, considering the early English summer weather. However, matches ‘ll be carried forward to next day, in case of interruption, rather than a re-start. DWL calculation ‘ll be applicable only after midway on Day 2.
o No team playing 2 matches in consecutive days in any stage, including reserve day (which means, minimum gap between 2 matches is 2 days for every team, in every stage)
o Not more than 2 matches played in a day for avoiding overlapping games
o Total Duration of WC without any reserve days can be brought down to 35 days, or even less to 29, but that ‘ll be excessive for teams in Final (11 or 12 matches in 4 or 5 weeks)
Scheduling considerations for best marketing returns
o Long ENG summer, day matches can start at 9AM, Day/Night Matches at 4/5PM. These ‘ll ensure minimum amount of over laps
o In Phase 1, both group matches are played in same Day. i. e. Group A on Day 1, 4 & 7 with a reserve day follows; Group B – 2, 5 & 8 & Group C 3, 6 & 9. With a reserve day, total duration for Round 1 is 10 days.
o Schedule a Day & a D/N match every day, as much as possible
o Oceania is 10-12 hours ahead of UK, Subcontinent 5-6 hours ahead, Middle-east & Africa by 2 to 3 hours ahead while Caribbean & North America 4-6 hours behind. So schedules have to be as much to accommodate the prime viewing time, which is in between 3PM to 1AM in working days & from 6 AM to 1AM on weekends
o Use the “seed scheduling” instead of “group standing scheduling” for Phase 2, for best possible logistical comfort & financial benefits. The idea used in T20 WC, a brilliant one. Say, in a group of IND, PAK, SRL & BD – teams are seeded as IND 1, PAK 2, SRL, 3 & BD 4. As long as the teams qualify for the Phase 2; their seeding remains intact, regardless of the group standing. If BD qualifies in exchange of say IND; they ‘ll be considered as Seed 1.
The Qualification Round
I like to introduce the WC qualification & a meaningful one – not the joke like ICC Tournament. The biggest robbing in WC history was done in 1997, when BD qualified ahead of Kenya for the joke of Kualalampur. Kenya posted something like 241/7, then BD was given to chase 166 in 25 overs & gracefully we did that, on last ball loosing 8 wickets. That opened the path for Northampton massacre in ’99 (??!!!), followed by the greatest disgrace of Test Cricket.
Take a cutoff – 31st Dec 2017. Top 8 ODI teams automatically qualifies for ENG 2019. Rest 2 Test sides (say BD & ZIM) & rest top 6 ODI sides (Say – AFG, KEN, IRL, SCT, UAE & HOL; may change in 2018) plays a yearlong qualifiers in 2018, may be in 2 groups of 4 each. The format could be home & away (shouldn’t, because of infrastructure, commercial viability or security) or as my preference – 1 group in UK/IRL & ZIM; other group in BD & UAE. Teams playing each other 3 match reverse series & by 31st DEC top 2 of each group goes to main draw. For argument, lets’ take BD, ZIM, IRL & AFG.
The Main Event's Draw
We need to make 3 groups of equal strengths, which mathematically is possible, like following
Rank all 12 teams in order of Standing as of 1st Jan 2019. Say – 1 AUS, 2 IND, 3 PAK, 4 SAF, 5 ENG, 6 SRL, 7 NZL, 8 WI, 9 ZIM, 10 BD, 11 AFG, 12 IRL. Total number equals to 78 (1+2 ….+11+12). Mathematically, every group ‘ll be equal if the position sum is 26 in each group. That can only be done in ONE combination – 1, 12, 6, 7 – 2, 11, 5, 8 – 3, 10, 4, 9.
So the Groups stand with Seeding as
Group A: 1. AUS, 2. SRL, 3. NZL, 4. IRL
Group B: 1. IND, 2. ENG, 3. WI, 4. AFG
Group C: 1. PAK, 2. SAF, 3. ZIM, 4. BD
Ideally, ZIM & BD (9th & 10th) should fight for the last (9th spot) while IRL & AFG ‘ll have to make at least 1 big upset (& not losing the other 2 by big margin) to qualify for Phase 2.
The Phase 1 Schedule must have top 2 seeds & bottom 2 seeds play in the last round Phase 1 match, which ideally should make every match meaningful.
Standings ‘ll be decided by (in order of precedence)
1. Points (2 for win, 1 for tied, no result or abounded)
2. Head to head, in case of 2 teams on same point
3. NRR, rounded up to 2 decimals, in case of 3 or more teams standing on same point
4. If the top 3 can’t separate (near impossible) – initial Tournament seeding
Now, coming to my Objectives set early – let’s cross-check the Format.
Objective 1 & 2: Top 12 teams ‘ll be playing the WC & these 12 teams are qualified over a long period; not through a flash in the pan. For Phase 2, even a team can qualify for last days win, which makes it vulnerable for top teams; however, since 3 out of 4 are advancing; unless a team loses all 3 group matches, it has a chance. The better teams ‘ll have higher chance, because most likely an unseeded team can have an upset, but probably ‘ll have worse NRR from other 2 matches. For 11th & 12th team to progress to Phase 2, they ‘ll have to win 2 matches, most likely – if anyone can do that deserves the promotion. In Phase 2 – almost certainly the top 4 sides ‘ll advance after 8 meaningful matches (Ideally playing against all other top 9 sides once). For KO stage; the IPL method actually covers a sudden bad day or crucial toss for better sides.
Objective 3: This is the beauty of this format. Current format is the most pathetic one. Teams can win 2 matches & then relax/throw/fix some of the preliminary matches & still can go to QF, SF even Final. What does it mean finishing 1 or 4 in a group as long as you are through? OK, I understand, finishing top, one can take the bottom finisher of other group in QF. In 1996 – SAF finished top, PAK 2 & went on to loose against 4th & 3rd side. In 2011 also NZ beat group topper SAF in QF. Cricket isn't like Football where you try to avoid the Group toppers – any of top 8 sides can beat each other on a day.
I believe, in these format - better sides ‘ll not be eliminated only for an odd loss in Phase 1 (At least ‘ll have 1/2 chances – since the last match is between the top 2 seeds); inferior sides ‘ll not advance in Phase 2 on-wards for 1 surprise win. The best part is, making every match accounted for in Phase 1 (Phase 2 on-wards, every match is crucial). Top 2 seeds are playing on last round of Group match, I am sure, in first 2 matches, they ‘ll try to grind the weaker/lower seeds as much as possible to be safe (& cover an odd upset through better NRR); while bottom 2 seeds ‘ll try to make sure the NRR is as good as possible to make an upset meaningful, just in case.
Ideally, I am keeping chances of only 6 matches for an upset or blown out; however, realistically I 'll be surprised to see even a single blown out match; may be just in case 1 or 2 upsets could be there.
Objective 4: 42 days isn't that long, particularly when the last 8/9 days are booked for 4 massive KOs. We can make it 7 days shorter, but as explained, a reserve day is required. Also, I think, this format ‘ll ensure that till the last match of Phase 1, everyone in keen & all 12 teams are in contention for Phase 2. In Phase 2, at least 4 to 6 teams ‘ll be still in contention for KOs on last round. Even, sides that have confirmed top 4 positions in Phase 2 earlier, ‘ll try their best to finish in top 2 to make KO stage easier.
I had 4 objectives before chalking out the format –
1. To ensure that the best sides are in WC, 4 of the best 5 sides are in SF (unlike 2003) & top 2 sides are in final
2. To ensure that better sides don’t get eliminated just for 1 bad day, alike 2007
3. To ensure that most preliminary group matches are meaningful & every match even against minnows are also accounted for, unlike 1999
4. To ensure that the tournament doesn't become too long like 2007, while at the same time it’s not too stressful for the players & the broadcasting money is maximized
The skeleton is –
- 3 Groups of 4 teams each for Phase 1, total 12 teams – Total matches - 18 (6 X 3)
- Top 3 teams from every group goes to Phase 2, with the group match results between same group teams advanced, carried forward – 9 teams advances to Phase 2
- Each team plays each other in Phase 2, with the results carried forward from Phase 1 matches
- Match played by each team in Phase 2 – 6, match accounted for Phase 2 standing – 8. Total matches – 27 [(9 X 6 )/2]
- Knock Out stages ‘ll be played like IPL Eliminator Format – Top 2 plays for First SF, Bottom 2 for Eliminator. Winner of Eliminator ‘ll take looser of 1st SF for the right of remaining Final Spot. Total matches – 4
- Total WC matches – 49 (18+27+4)
- Total Duration of WC: Phase 1: 10 + 1 day gap. Phase 2: 21 + 1 day gap; KO - 9 days. = 42 days. These is covering conditions:
o Every match has a reserve day, considering the early English summer weather. However, matches ‘ll be carried forward to next day, in case of interruption, rather than a re-start. DWL calculation ‘ll be applicable only after midway on Day 2.
o No team playing 2 matches in consecutive days in any stage, including reserve day (which means, minimum gap between 2 matches is 2 days for every team, in every stage)
o Not more than 2 matches played in a day for avoiding overlapping games
o Total Duration of WC without any reserve days can be brought down to 35 days, or even less to 29, but that ‘ll be excessive for teams in Final (11 or 12 matches in 4 or 5 weeks)
Scheduling considerations for best marketing returns
o Long ENG summer, day matches can start at 9AM, Day/Night Matches at 4/5PM. These ‘ll ensure minimum amount of over laps
o In Phase 1, both group matches are played in same Day. i. e. Group A on Day 1, 4 & 7 with a reserve day follows; Group B – 2, 5 & 8 & Group C 3, 6 & 9. With a reserve day, total duration for Round 1 is 10 days.
o Schedule a Day & a D/N match every day, as much as possible
o Oceania is 10-12 hours ahead of UK, Subcontinent 5-6 hours ahead, Middle-east & Africa by 2 to 3 hours ahead while Caribbean & North America 4-6 hours behind. So schedules have to be as much to accommodate the prime viewing time, which is in between 3PM to 1AM in working days & from 6 AM to 1AM on weekends
o Use the “seed scheduling” instead of “group standing scheduling” for Phase 2, for best possible logistical comfort & financial benefits. The idea used in T20 WC, a brilliant one. Say, in a group of IND, PAK, SRL & BD – teams are seeded as IND 1, PAK 2, SRL, 3 & BD 4. As long as the teams qualify for the Phase 2; their seeding remains intact, regardless of the group standing. If BD qualifies in exchange of say IND; they ‘ll be considered as Seed 1.
The Qualification Round
I like to introduce the WC qualification & a meaningful one – not the joke like ICC Tournament. The biggest robbing in WC history was done in 1997, when BD qualified ahead of Kenya for the joke of Kualalampur. Kenya posted something like 241/7, then BD was given to chase 166 in 25 overs & gracefully we did that, on last ball loosing 8 wickets. That opened the path for Northampton massacre in ’99 (??!!!), followed by the greatest disgrace of Test Cricket.
Take a cutoff – 31st Dec 2017. Top 8 ODI teams automatically qualifies for ENG 2019. Rest 2 Test sides (say BD & ZIM) & rest top 6 ODI sides (Say – AFG, KEN, IRL, SCT, UAE & HOL; may change in 2018) plays a yearlong qualifiers in 2018, may be in 2 groups of 4 each. The format could be home & away (shouldn’t, because of infrastructure, commercial viability or security) or as my preference – 1 group in UK/IRL & ZIM; other group in BD & UAE. Teams playing each other 3 match reverse series & by 31st DEC top 2 of each group goes to main draw. For argument, lets’ take BD, ZIM, IRL & AFG.
The Main Event's Draw
We need to make 3 groups of equal strengths, which mathematically is possible, like following
Rank all 12 teams in order of Standing as of 1st Jan 2019. Say – 1 AUS, 2 IND, 3 PAK, 4 SAF, 5 ENG, 6 SRL, 7 NZL, 8 WI, 9 ZIM, 10 BD, 11 AFG, 12 IRL. Total number equals to 78 (1+2 ….+11+12). Mathematically, every group ‘ll be equal if the position sum is 26 in each group. That can only be done in ONE combination – 1, 12, 6, 7 – 2, 11, 5, 8 – 3, 10, 4, 9.
So the Groups stand with Seeding as
Group A: 1. AUS, 2. SRL, 3. NZL, 4. IRL
Group B: 1. IND, 2. ENG, 3. WI, 4. AFG
Group C: 1. PAK, 2. SAF, 3. ZIM, 4. BD
Ideally, ZIM & BD (9th & 10th) should fight for the last (9th spot) while IRL & AFG ‘ll have to make at least 1 big upset (& not losing the other 2 by big margin) to qualify for Phase 2.
The Phase 1 Schedule must have top 2 seeds & bottom 2 seeds play in the last round Phase 1 match, which ideally should make every match meaningful.
Standings ‘ll be decided by (in order of precedence)
1. Points (2 for win, 1 for tied, no result or abounded)
2. Head to head, in case of 2 teams on same point
3. NRR, rounded up to 2 decimals, in case of 3 or more teams standing on same point
4. If the top 3 can’t separate (near impossible) – initial Tournament seeding
Now, coming to my Objectives set early – let’s cross-check the Format.
Objective 1 & 2: Top 12 teams ‘ll be playing the WC & these 12 teams are qualified over a long period; not through a flash in the pan. For Phase 2, even a team can qualify for last days win, which makes it vulnerable for top teams; however, since 3 out of 4 are advancing; unless a team loses all 3 group matches, it has a chance. The better teams ‘ll have higher chance, because most likely an unseeded team can have an upset, but probably ‘ll have worse NRR from other 2 matches. For 11th & 12th team to progress to Phase 2, they ‘ll have to win 2 matches, most likely – if anyone can do that deserves the promotion. In Phase 2 – almost certainly the top 4 sides ‘ll advance after 8 meaningful matches (Ideally playing against all other top 9 sides once). For KO stage; the IPL method actually covers a sudden bad day or crucial toss for better sides.
Objective 3: This is the beauty of this format. Current format is the most pathetic one. Teams can win 2 matches & then relax/throw/fix some of the preliminary matches & still can go to QF, SF even Final. What does it mean finishing 1 or 4 in a group as long as you are through? OK, I understand, finishing top, one can take the bottom finisher of other group in QF. In 1996 – SAF finished top, PAK 2 & went on to loose against 4th & 3rd side. In 2011 also NZ beat group topper SAF in QF. Cricket isn't like Football where you try to avoid the Group toppers – any of top 8 sides can beat each other on a day.
I believe, in these format - better sides ‘ll not be eliminated only for an odd loss in Phase 1 (At least ‘ll have 1/2 chances – since the last match is between the top 2 seeds); inferior sides ‘ll not advance in Phase 2 on-wards for 1 surprise win. The best part is, making every match accounted for in Phase 1 (Phase 2 on-wards, every match is crucial). Top 2 seeds are playing on last round of Group match, I am sure, in first 2 matches, they ‘ll try to grind the weaker/lower seeds as much as possible to be safe (& cover an odd upset through better NRR); while bottom 2 seeds ‘ll try to make sure the NRR is as good as possible to make an upset meaningful, just in case.
Ideally, I am keeping chances of only 6 matches for an upset or blown out; however, realistically I 'll be surprised to see even a single blown out match; may be just in case 1 or 2 upsets could be there.
Objective 4: 42 days isn't that long, particularly when the last 8/9 days are booked for 4 massive KOs. We can make it 7 days shorter, but as explained, a reserve day is required. Also, I think, this format ‘ll ensure that till the last match of Phase 1, everyone in keen & all 12 teams are in contention for Phase 2. In Phase 2, at least 4 to 6 teams ‘ll be still in contention for KOs on last round. Even, sides that have confirmed top 4 positions in Phase 2 earlier, ‘ll try their best to finish in top 2 to make KO stage easier.
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