The first ever World Test Championship is about to start. Hardly anyone has got their head around the format yet, but I have, and I can tell you that many of Pakistan's supposed drawbacks - such as 2 Test series and not playing against India - actually provide them with a clear route to the Final.
1. Short series let teams like Pakistan over-perform
Consider India and Pakistan's 2018 tours of England.
India had a superior team and they played in more friendly conditions - the dry late summer months.
India started playing red ball cricket in England far too late and lost 4-1.
Pakistan arrived early and practised in public parks and in a Test in Ireland and went 1-0 up against an under-prepared England, and drew the series 1-1.
2. Do well in a short series and be richly rewarded
Under the new format, it doesn't matter if a series contains 2 Test or 5 Tests, there are a maximum of 120 points to win.
Pakistan's 1-1 draw in England in 2018 would have seen the points shared 60-60 between England and Pakistan.
But India's 4-1 loss would have seen England take 96 points and India take 24.
Similarly, India's 2-1 win in Australia last southern summer meant that they would have taken 75 points and Australia would have taken 40 points.
But if Pakistan can win the pink ball lottery in Adelaide (by winning the toss and scoring 200 before bowling out Australia in the twilight), they would get a minimum of 60 points from their 2 match series even if they lose the Brisbane Test.
Again, Pakistan would earn almost as many points as India in Australia simply by drawing 1-1, even though India controlled their series.
In effect, Pakistan's shorter series mean that they can amass a lot of points by winning the odd game in their short away series.
3. So how do you do well in a short series?
We've heard it all before. Pakistan turn up far too late everywhere except England, do okay against puny, understrength home teams in the warm-up match, then lose heavily.
Look at 2018. Pakistan arrived early in England, prepared properly and drew 1-1.
But they arrived far too late in South Africa and lost 3-0 to an inferior team.
Pakistan have only 3 away series in the 2019-2021 World Test Championship.
2 Tests in Australia in late November 2019, five weeks after they host Sri Lanka.
3 Tests in England in July 2020 - the fourth consecutive year they tour England.
2 Tests in New Zealand in December 2020.
That's all. No tour of South Africa.
4. Play tour matches against your own reserves
They need to get there earlier than usual, and they need to play decent opposition.
And "decent opposition" is the easy part. Australia has given up on being given decent opposition in England before the Ashes next month.
So in addition to their 17 man squad, they have taken 9 extra players for the two weeks before the First Test, and they are playing each other in England - Australia Probables versus Australia Possibles.
Pakistan could and should do exactly the same thing before the 2 Tests in Australia in November.
Imam / Shan Masood / Haris Sohail / Babar Azam / Umar Akmal / Mohammad Rizwan / Faheem Ashraf / Shadab Khan / Mohammad Amir / Shaheen Shah Afridi / Mohammad Abbas
versus
Fakhar Zaman / Azhar Ali / Asad Shafiq / Usman Salahuddin / Imad Wasim / Sarfraz Ahmed / Hasan Ali / Yasir Shah / Wahab Riaz / Mohammad Hasnain / Ehsan Adil.
In South Africa at the start of this year the touring Pakistanis learned far too late that neither Fakhar Zaman nor the veteran version of Azhar Ali is technically able to play short-pitched bowling.
If they had arrived early enough and practised against decent opposition that wouldn't have happened.
5. Don't let players age together
From now on, all Test series are part of one World Test Championship or the next. We saw that when Younis and Misbah retired together, even a puny Sri Lankan team won in the UAE against too many batsmen whose place in the team was not yet secure.
We have already seen that the veteran versions of Azhar Ali and Asad Shafiq average a dozen runs per innings less than they used to.
It would be suicide to have two such declining players in the middle order, and then see them vanish together and leave two unestablished players in the Top Six of the batting.
The new format really means that veteran players have to be retired at staggered intervals to avoid periods of destabilisation.
Pakistan currently has half its team on the wrong side of the age of 30: Azhar Ali, Asad Shafiq and Sarfraz Ahmed are all in clear age-related decline while Yasir Shah is a proven failure outside Asia and Wahab Riaz is already inferior to Shaheen Shah Afridi.
Pakistan needs to pick one of Azhar Ali and Asad Shafiq and retire the other and it really needs to keep Yasir Shah as an Asia-only specialist. It also needs to let Mohammad Rizwan replace Sarfraz Ahmed and Shaheen Shah Afridi replace Wahab Riaz.
6. Don't host Asian teams in Asia
What is the point of playing against Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in the UAE or even Pakistan? Their strength is spin bowling and batting against spin.
Surely those series are best played in conditions which would favour Pakistan's pace bowling. I'd be playing them in South Africa or New Zealand at small grounds and with a Dukes ball. That would serve two purposes: take the opposition out of their comfort zone and also prepare the Pakistan batsmen and bowlers for difficult conditions when they tour England, New Zealand and Australia.
7. Make the most of who you don't play
Every team doesn't play two other teams in the Top Nine.
Australia miss out on easy series against Sri Lanka and the West Indies and have a tough looking draw.
South Africa miss series against Bangladesh and New Zealand that they would expect to win.
England miss out on Bangladesh and New Zealand.
Meanwhile Pakistan and Sri Lanka are the two teams with the kindest draw. Sri Lanka avoid series against India and Australia, while Pakistan miss out on India - who they would almost certainly have lost to - and the West Indies whom they have somehow lost 2 recent Tests against.
All in all, Pakistan has a clear route to the Final if they just follow several simple steps:
1. Host Bangladesh and Sri Lanka somewhere unfriendly to spin bowling.
2. Arrive early for their tours of England, Australia and New Zealand.
3. Take their own reserves on those tours, and play against them instead of weak local teams.
4. Host South Africa in spin-friendly conditions.
5. Understand that draws earn very few points, so the UAE is a very questionable place to host any cricket.
If Pakistan can do that, there is a clear route to the Final.
