Should a bowler's bowling average be adjusted according to the quality of the batter he has taken wickets off?

[Muhammad Saad]

Adjusting a Bowler's Average Based on the Quality of Wickets Taken​

In traditional cricket statistics, a bowler’s performance is judged by their bowling average, calculated simply as:

Bowling Average=Runs ConcededWickets TakenBowling Average=Wickets TakenRuns Conceded
However, this calculation doesn’t consider the quality of the wickets taken. Dismissing a world-class batter like Virat Kohli should carry more weight than dismissing a tailender. To address this, we can implement a weighted system that adjusts a bowler’s average based on the difficulty and importance of each wicket.

Below, I’ve outlined a detailed method to calculate an adjusted bowling average that accounts for factors like batter quality, match context, and pitch conditions.

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1. Assigning Quality Scores to Batters​

Each batter is assigned a quality score based on their ability and role. The score can be derived using factors like:

• Career batting average: Higher averages indicate better batters.
• ICC ranking: Top-ranked batters get higher scores.
• Role in the batting order: Top-order batters (1–4) are weighted higher than middle-order or tailenders.
• Recent form: Recent performances in the last 5–10 matches can adjust the score.

Here’s an example of quality scores:

• Top-tier batters (average > 40): 1.5
• Middle-order batters (average 25–40): 1.2
• Tailenders (average < 25): 0.8

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2. Match Context Multiplier​

Wickets taken in high-pressure situations are more valuable. For example, dismissing a batter while defending a low total in the death overs is more impactful than dismissing a tailender in a one-sided match. To incorporate this, assign a context multiplier:

• High-pressure situations: Death overs (46–50 in ODIs/T20s), defending/chasing low totals: 1.2
• Moderate-pressure situations: Middle overs with a stable game scenario: 1.0
• Low-pressure situations: Non-critical moments in one-sided matches: 0.8

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3. Pitch Condition Multiplier​

Pitch conditions significantly impact a bowler’s performance. A wicket on a flat, batter-friendly pitch is harder to achieve and should be weighted higher, while wickets on bowler-friendly tracks (e.g., green tops or spinning tracks) should carry slightly less weight. Assign a pitch multiplier as follows:

• Flat pitch (high scoring, minimal assistance for bowlers): 1.2
• Balanced pitch (equal for batters and bowlers): 1.0
• Bowler-friendly pitch (seaming or spinning conditions): 0.8

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4. Combining Factors: Final Multiplier​

The final multiplier for a wicket is calculated as:

Final Multiplier=Batter Quality Score×Context Multiplier×Pitch MultiplierFinal Multiplier=Batter Quality Score×Context Multiplier×Pitch Multiplier

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5. Adjusted Bowling Average Formula​

To adjust the bowling average, we use the following formula:

Adjusted Bowling Average=Runs ConcededTotal Weighted WicketsAdjusted Bowling Average=Total Weighted WicketsRuns Conceded
Where:

Total Weighted Wickets=∑(Batter Quality Score×Context Multiplier×Pitch Multiplier)Total Weighted Wickets=∑(Batter Quality Score×Context Multiplier×Pitch Multiplier)

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Example Calculation​

Let’s calculate an adjusted bowling average for a bowler who conceded 90 runs and took 3 wickets with the following details:

Wicket Details:​

1. Wicket 1:
   
   • Batter A: Career average = 50 (Quality Score = 1.5)
   • Match context: High-pressure death overs (Multiplier = 1.2)
   • Pitch: Flat pitch (Multiplier = 1.2)
   • Final weighted score = 1.5×1.2×1.2=2.161.5×1.2×1.2=2.16
2. Wicket 2:
   
   • Batter B: Career average = 35 (Quality Score = 1.2)
   • Match context: Low-pressure middle overs (Multiplier = 0.8)
   • Pitch: Balanced pitch (Multiplier = 1.0)
   • Final weighted score = 1.2×0.8×1.0=0.961.2×0.8×1.0=0.96
3. Wicket 3:
   
   • Batter C: Career average = 10 (Quality Score = 0.8)
   • Match context: Moderate pressure (Multiplier = 1.0)
   • Pitch: Bowler-friendly pitch (Multiplier = 0.8)
   • Final weighted score = 0.8×1.0×0.8=0.640.8×1.0×0.8=0.64

Total Weighted Wickets:​

Total Weighted Wickets=2.16+0.96+0.64=3.76Total Weighted Wickets=2.16+0.96+0.64=3.76

Adjusted Bowling Average:​

Adjusted Bowling Average=Runs ConcededTotal Weighted Wickets=903.76≈23.94Adjusted Bowling Average=Total Weighted WicketsRuns Conceded=3.7690≈23.94
In comparison, the traditional bowling average would have been:

Traditional Bowling Average=903=30.00Traditional Bowling Average=390=30.00

---

Advantages of This Method​

This adjusted system provides a more nuanced evaluation of a bowler’s performance by:

1. Rewarding bowlers for dismissing high-quality batters like Virat Kohli.
2. Accounting for the difficulty of match conditions.
3. Factoring in pitch-related challenges.

By incorporating these factors, we can better assess a bowler’s true impact on the game, ensuring players like Jasprit Bumrah or Kagiso Rabada get proper credit for dismissing world-class batters in challenging conditions.

What do you think of this approach? Should cricket statisticians start adopting this method to better evaluate bowlers' performances?

 

[Muhammad Saad]

This way we can see the true bowling average and worth of every bowler regardless of quality of opposing team and pitch conditions.

 

[Rana]

I agree to this as long as you can readjust RizBar’s runs in all formats against lol bowlers they scored them against. Otherwise we will continue to find jokers like @heddie19 @Kianig89 @gazza619 @Major @daytrader etc tell us RizBar have 10k runs in International cricket so they are both better than Travis Head.

 

[Kianig89]

What if a bowler takes a wicket of 50 averaging batsman than a 30 averaging good English speaking batsman, will it have more weightage

OP please sort some formula for this also to ease out the itching of certain clowns

 

[DeadlyVenom]

It only works if you believe that batting average is the hallmark of a quality batter. In most cases yes it is but if batting average is built up by bashing low quality bowlers then you will be going round in circles after a while.

 

[FearlessRoar]

Adjusting a Bowler's Average Based on the Quality of Wickets Taken​

In traditional cricket statistics, a bowler’s performance is judged by their bowling average, calculated simply as:

Bowling Average=Runs ConcededWickets TakenBowling Average=Wickets TakenRuns Conceded
However, this calculation doesn’t consider the quality of the wickets taken. Dismissing a world-class batter like Virat Kohli should carry more weight than dismissing a tailender. To address this, we can implement a weighted system that adjusts a bowler’s average based on the difficulty and importance of each wicket.

Below, I’ve outlined a detailed method to calculate an adjusted bowling average that accounts for factors like batter quality, match context, and pitch conditions.

---

1. Assigning Quality Scores to Batters​

Each batter is assigned a quality score based on their ability and role. The score can be derived using factors like:

• Career batting average: Higher averages indicate better batters.
• ICC ranking: Top-ranked batters get higher scores.
• Role in the batting order: Top-order batters (1–4) are weighted higher than middle-order or tailenders.
• Recent form: Recent performances in the last 5–10 matches can adjust the score.

Here’s an example of quality scores:

• Top-tier batters (average > 40): 1.5
• Middle-order batters (average 25–40): 1.2
• Tailenders (average < 25): 0.8

---

2. Match Context Multiplier​

Wickets taken in high-pressure situations are more valuable. For example, dismissing a batter while defending a low total in the death overs is more impactful than dismissing a tailender in a one-sided match. To incorporate this, assign a context multiplier:

• High-pressure situations: Death overs (46–50 in ODIs/T20s), defending/chasing low totals: 1.2
• Moderate-pressure situations: Middle overs with a stable game scenario: 1.0
• Low-pressure situations: Non-critical moments in one-sided matches: 0.8

---

3. Pitch Condition Multiplier​

Pitch conditions significantly impact a bowler’s performance. A wicket on a flat, batter-friendly pitch is harder to achieve and should be weighted higher, while wickets on bowler-friendly tracks (e.g., green tops or spinning tracks) should carry slightly less weight. Assign a pitch multiplier as follows:

• Flat pitch (high scoring, minimal assistance for bowlers): 1.2
• Balanced pitch (equal for batters and bowlers): 1.0
• Bowler-friendly pitch (seaming or spinning conditions): 0.8

---

4. Combining Factors: Final Multiplier​

The final multiplier for a wicket is calculated as:

Final Multiplier=Batter Quality Score×Context Multiplier×Pitch MultiplierFinal Multiplier=Batter Quality Score×Context Multiplier×Pitch Multiplier

---

5. Adjusted Bowling Average Formula​

To adjust the bowling average, we use the following formula:

Adjusted Bowling Average=Runs ConcededTotal Weighted WicketsAdjusted Bowling Average=Total Weighted WicketsRuns Conceded
Where:

Total Weighted Wickets=∑(Batter Quality Score×Context Multiplier×Pitch Multiplier)Total Weighted Wickets=∑(Batter Quality Score×Context Multiplier×Pitch Multiplier)

---

Example Calculation​

Let’s calculate an adjusted bowling average for a bowler who conceded 90 runs and took 3 wickets with the following details:

Wicket Details:​

1. Wicket 1:
   • Batter A: Career average = 50 (Quality Score = 1.5)
   • Match context: High-pressure death overs (Multiplier = 1.2)
   • Pitch: Flat pitch (Multiplier = 1.2)
   • Final weighted score = 1.5×1.2×1.2=2.161.5×1.2×1.2=2.16
2. Wicket 2:
   • Batter B: Career average = 35 (Quality Score = 1.2)
   • Match context: Low-pressure middle overs (Multiplier = 0.8)
   • Pitch: Balanced pitch (Multiplier = 1.0)
   • Final weighted score = 1.2×0.8×1.0=0.961.2×0.8×1.0=0.96
3. Wicket 3:
   • Batter C: Career average = 10 (Quality Score = 0.8)
   • Match context: Moderate pressure (Multiplier = 1.0)
   • Pitch: Bowler-friendly pitch (Multiplier = 0.8)
   • Final weighted score = 0.8×1.0×0.8=0.640.8×1.0×0.8=0.64

Total Weighted Wickets:​

Total Weighted Wickets=2.16+0.96+0.64=3.76Total Weighted Wickets=2.16+0.96+0.64=3.76

Adjusted Bowling Average:​

Adjusted Bowling Average=Runs ConcededTotal Weighted Wickets=903.76≈23.94Adjusted Bowling Average=Total Weighted WicketsRuns Conceded=3.7690≈23.94
In comparison, the traditional bowling average would have been:

Traditional Bowling Average=903=30.00Traditional Bowling Average=390=30.00

---

Advantages of This Method​

This adjusted system provides a more nuanced evaluation of a bowler’s performance by:

1. Rewarding bowlers for dismissing high-quality batters like Virat Kohli.
2. Accounting for the difficulty of match conditions.
3. Factoring in pitch-related challenges.

By incorporating these factors, we can better assess a bowler’s true impact on the game, ensuring players like Jasprit Bumrah or Kagiso Rabada get proper credit for dismissing world-class batters in challenging conditions.

What do you think of this approach? Should cricket statisticians start adopting this method to better evaluate bowlers' performances?

Very nice OP bro

 

[Muhammad Saad]

Adjusting Batting Averages for Quality of Opposition​

After discussing adjusted bowling averages, it’s only fair to apply the same logic to batting averages. Scoring runs against world-class bowlers like Jasprit Bumrah or Kagiso Rabada in tough conditions is far more valuable than piling up runs against weaker bowlers on flat tracks.

The traditional batting average:

Batting Average=Total Runs ScoredNumber of Times DismissedBatting Average=Number of Times DismissedTotal Runs Scored
doesn’t account for the quality of bowlers, match context, or pitch conditions. A more accurate measure would assign weights to runs based on these factors.

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Factors for Adjustment​

1. Bowler Quality:
   
   • Elite bowlers (average < 25): Weight = 1.5
   • Good bowlers (25–35): Weight = 1.2
   • Below-average bowlers (> 35): Weight = 0.8
2. Match Context:
   
   • High-pressure scenarios (chasing, collapses): Weight = 1.2
   • Moderate pressure: 1.0
   • Low pressure (easy situations): 0.8
3. Pitch Conditions:
   
   • Bowler-friendly (seaming/spinning): Weight = 1.2
   • Balanced: 1.0
   • Flat: 0.8

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Adjusted Batting Average Formula​

Adjusted Average=Total Weighted RunsDismissalsAdjusted Average=DismissalsTotal Weighted Runs
Where:

Total Weighted Runs=∑(Runs×Bowler Quality×Context×Pitch)Total Weighted Runs=∑(Runs×Bowler Quality×Context×Pitch)

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Example​

A batter scores 120 runs in an innings:

• 40 runs vs Bumrah (High pressure, bowler-friendly pitch): Weighted = 86.4
• 50 runs vs Rabada (Moderate pressure, balanced pitch): Weighted = 75.0
• 30 runs vs part-timer (Low pressure, flat pitch): Weighted = 15.36

Total Weighted Runs = 176.76
Adjusted Average = 176.761=176.761176.76=176.76, compared to a traditional average of 120.

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Why It Matters​

This approach rewards batters for scoring against quality opposition in tough situations while highlighting the true value of their runs. Together with adjusted bowling averages, this can revolutionize how we evaluate cricket performances

Mods kindly rewise the thread title to include both.