Reporting for Spirit Squad duty guys !!
So let's now mathematically look at where we are and what we can do to ensure a win, as [MENTION=3474]TalhaSyed[/MENTION] bhai said, no point in going for a draw in this one - Too much is at stake here.
We have 270 overs left in game and since this is the U.A.E. more or less, barring some extremely surprising chain of events, we will hopefully (Inshallah) get all the overs in. To win the game we need to bowl SL out again once more which is why I am allotting 70 overs for our bowlers to achieved the latter on a Day 4 or Day 5 wearing pitch.
The question now arises in those last 70 overs how much our bowlers can defend, because as much as I hate to admit it, we do not have a stock containment bowler in the lineup at the moment and all of them leak runs faster than a punctured water hose. I'd say that a lead of 170-200 would be something that I might be comfortable with however, lets realistically put it at a number that our batsmen also can effectively put up on the board ~ so in that case I am going with
160 runs lead at the end of Pakistan's Innings.
482 + 160 = 645 ~ 650 runs (approximately) at the end of our innings. We've already scored 50 of those so we're left with 600. As stated above out of the 270 overs we need to consume 200 to bat SL out of a contention to win it.
600 runs in 200 overs is 3 runs per over but to look at it in such a way will be suicidal, we need to further break it down into smaller targets to make it relatively achievable. 200 overs is 6.5 sessions
Day 3 Afternoon Session - 75 runs ~ at 2.8 RPO (consolidate and reassess pitch and conditions)
Day 3 Post Tea - 85-90 runs ~ 3.15 to 3.3 RPO (Increase pace, assert authority and punish loose balls regardless)
Day 3 Post Dinner - 130 runs minimum ~ 3.5+ RPO (Proper Blitz, someone needs to take charge and go all out)
At the end of Day 3 if we lose 4 wickets then the score would look something like this 50+75+85+130 = 340/4 which is a decentish position as the lead will be only a hundred odd runs and we would have a could of bats to come as well.
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Day 4 Afternoon Session - 85 runs at 3.0 RPO (Approximately) ~ first half of the session should be used to consolidate, reassess conditions once again and then in the next half of the session run scoring should be carried out
Day 4 Post Tea - 100 runs at 3.3-3.4 RPO (Blitz session, lead knocked off and we go 50 odd in front)
Day 4 Post Dinner - 100+ runs at 3.5+ RPO (Afridi session, we bat SL out of a winning position and ensure there are only two outcomes remaining in the game)
I will say we will loose 5 wickets on day 4 with the middle order doing the bulk of the lifting for the runs being scored. This would mean that our score would be somewhere around 620+ for 8 or 9 wickets.
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Day 5 Afternoon Session - 25 runs (slogging) and SL wrap up the tail eventually. SL then proceed to loose two wickets in the remaining overs
Day 5 Post Tea - Grueling test match session, SL blitz to 90 runs but we pick up 3 wickets so SL are five down at 110 (approximately).
Day 5 Final Test match session - SL start of well by smacking golden boy for a couple of boundaries but then Mr.Aggressive (finally shows up) and along with Messi collapse the Sri Lankans for the next 30 odd runs. - Pakistan win by an Innings and 10-15 runs.
MOM - Yasir Shah for his 10-fer
MOS - Shan Masood for dead lifting 200 Kgs all throughout the tour.
