Congratulations to those who are celebrating the change of government, personally, I hate this but let's hope that this can bring some temporary relief to our people.
My personal thoughts on the entire situation are that this was a very well-engineered plan that has been in motion for a very long time now. Maybe the only glitch in the plan was that the executors didn't expect any positive response from the public so they hurried up a few things at the final stage which ended up in losing the discreteness of the plot.
These are my thoughts on the entire three years of this, all conjecture of course
1. IK was given the government because of the public pressure and popularity. They simply couldn't deny that he was a strong character and had popularity but knew that he won't be able to perform so giving him a chance won't hurt anyone.
2. He wasn't also given a strong government so he'd never be fully independent. People were added and subtracted from his party in different forms like not letting him contest against Ali Wazir or Dawar (etc.) and seat adjustments with PMLQ. This meant that even though PTI was a majority party, they never really were a party with true power.
3. Everyone knew that the economy was absolutely shoddy when the government was formed. It was pretty clear that an idealist like IK wouldn't go to IMF and the crisis will basically end his popularity. That would be an ideal time to move a few MNA's from here to there but they needed him to lose public support to avoid any outrage if they carried out such a move. They also wanted to give him a bit of time because no one wanted him to become a martyr. Somehow, the first difficult phase was managed by IK even though he did lose some support from both the public and the party while navigating these choppy waters.
4. Once the first phase was over, this is the time problems started to appear and the clash of ideology between the establishment and IK started to become bigger. The acceptance of Israel and the strategy on US exit from Afg just increased the gap even more. Nawaz had to be moved out as well and that became a big point of difference.
5. Another key issue was the NRO; the establishment was keen on creating an empty slate with politicians and starting afresh but that never happened. This blatant no from IK resulted in the establishment giving covert NROs to everyone, be it Shehbaz, Hamza, Maryam, or whoever but it was hidden behind the garb of procedural complexities and the public just kept thinking that accountability isn't something that can be executed by Imran.
6. The 2019 end covid crisis actually ensured that IK ruled a lot longer than it was planned. No one wanted to do anything during that phase so people just backed out of removing him. I personally thought that this was the time when they had originally planned to subtract IK from the political scene but the severity of the crisis and his handling of it all added a little lease of life to his premiership.
7. Moving a bit forward, when Gilani was elected as a senator, IK had actually lost the parliament on that day. If PDM wanted to remove him, they could have easily done that but instead, they decided to let him carry on because the economy was doing badly and he was losing popularity every day. For this reason, they decided that as IK's idealism is veering off, people would automatically be tired of him so they let it go further. The formation of PDM also was a pressure tactic to keep everyone on their toes in the establishment. It was also a chance to let Maryam back into mainstream politics to PMLN could align their future and see who will be their next breakout star.
8. The major issue between IK and the rest of the powers (opposition and establishment) surfaced when despite all the crises, the global indicators of the economy started to go in the right direction. That's when an emergency plan was set up because now everyone realized that if this keeps going on this way, IK may actually win some popularity back. They didn't want to just oust him, they wanted him out disgraced and with a broken reputation. This is when they realized they have to act really quickly and hence the plan was set in motion.
9. Since IK had taken a vote of confidence they needed to wait for 12 or so months (i think it's a constitutional requirement but I can be wrong) and the day that date was up, the vote of no confidence was filed.
10. The intelligence gathering for this operation was done by the US diplomats, the resources were provided by the establishment, and the deals were sealed by PPP & Noon. The US staff also roamed so freely in the country and met whoever they wanted to meet under the sun to prove a point and to rub it into our faces that we are here and you can't do anything about it.
11. The only issue in the plan was (and is) that the public rallied for IK when this actually happened. No one thought that the public would respond in this way to him as it was a common perception that IK is all words no action and inflation has hit an all-time high and the public is tired of him. IK had after all lost most of the by-elections and done really badly in the local body elections in KPK that's traditionally a PTI powerhouse. This public outpouring of emotion hasn't changed anything in the bigger plan but it has meant that mistakes were made during execution which has revealed the characters behind the plot out in the open.
Some but not all the mistakes that were made include but are not limited to
a. Opening the court on a holiday
b. filing a petition in Islamabad HC to seal the letter giving it the status of a state secret
c. The statement of the election commissioner
d. re-opening the Supreme court at 12:00 a.m. on a holiday even before a petition is even filed while rejecting the government's petition in the day citing that these aren't court hours
e. Getting TLP involved in this political bout
I feel that these are just stupid mistakes made by people who were rattled by the unpredictability of IK. They were afraid that IK may just fire a few people and create a hassle even though they did have backups for that as well.
Point is, all of this is now said and done and we cannot change anything about it. We may call it a national government, establishment-assisted judiciary-approved coup, regime change, or just another day in Pakistani politics based on whatever our affiliations are in the political spectrum.
I've long come to the conclusion that there are multiple issues in Pakistan and no single person can actually fix our country. I do believe however that we need to constantly struggle and strive for our ideals/true worth and life is actually all about just trying and putting in the effort. Good days or bad days don't really define us as there's a lot of flux between these two and things can change pretty quickly. In a personal capacity and at this moment, I'm badly hurt by how this has happened but then, on the other hand, I see my country folk rejoice so I'm glad that at least someone is happy in all of this.
I hope there won't be a lot of vendetta against PTI but based on the past history, it's probably too much to ask for. I also mentioned in another thread that I see this as an end of PTI and IK in power politics. He's become too big a fish for this pond so now he'll be cut down to size where his role remains that of a political disruptor instead of the political process. I hope my people also stop looking up to IK as a Messiah and understand that we need to set realistic expectations from political leaders.
Rest is upto Allah subhana ho wa taala, jo Rabb ki marzi, woh hi hamaari bhi. But I do pray that hopefully, there will be a day when my country is truly free and prosperous and may we get to see that day. Ameen.
