US Elections (2024) - Discussion Thread

[FearlessRoar]

The 2024 election will be on Tuesday, 5 November 2024. The winner will serve a term of four years in the White House, starting in January 2025.

The president has the power to pass some laws on their own but mostly they must work with Congress to pass legislation.

On the world stage, the US leader has considerable freedom to represent the country abroad and to conduct foreign policy.

The two main parties nominate a presidential candidate by holding a series of votes called state primaries and caucuses, where people choose who they want to lead the party in a general election.

In the Republican Party, former president Donald Trump won his party's support with a massive lead over his rivals. He became the official Republican nominee at a party convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

For the Democrats, Vice-President Kamala Harris became she official nominee in August at her party's convention in Chicago. She joined the race after President Joe Biden dropped out.

There are also some independent candidates running for president. One of the most prominent such candidates, Robert F Kennedy Jr, nephew to former president John F Kennedy, suspended his campaign in late August and has endorsed Trump.

Who will win? and how will the outcome of the election impact the country's future?

 

[FearlessRoar]

Did you know why Americans vote only in November? It's not just a random choice! In 1845, Congress carefully planned Election Day to align with the needs of America's predominantly white, adult male electorate at the time.

The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November was chosen to avoid conflicts with religious practices and economic activities. However, this tradition may seem outdated today, with many finding it challenging to fit voting into their busy schedules.

Should the voting system be updated to accommodate modern lifestyles?

 

[FearlessRoar]

Former US President George W. Bush does not plan to make election endorsement​

Former US President George W. Bush, a Republican, does not plan to make an endorsement or voice how he or his wife Laura will vote in the presidential election in November, a spokesman said on Saturday.

“He retired from presidential politics many years ago,” said the spokesman, who did not wish to be named.

The announcement came a day after Bush’s vice president, Dick Cheney, announced he would cross party lines and vote for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris over Republican former President Donald Trump.

Cheney, who served as vice president under Bush from 2001 to 2009, said on Friday that “in our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump.”

Harris said on Saturday endorsements of her by Dick Cheney and his daughter Liz, a former US Representative, were "courageous" for putting country ahead of political party.

Mike Pence, who served as Trump’s vice president for four years, has said he will not endorse his former boss but has not backed Harris.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/united-states/2024/09/08/former-us-president-george-w-bush-does-not-plan-to-make-election-endorsement

 

[dubeTheGoat]

According to Mr Lichtman, who has correctly predicted all elections of this century barring the infamous Bush v Gore, Kamala is expected to return assuming the turnout is nearly same as that of 2020.

 

[deltexas]

Nobody knows who's going to win. It willbe a super tight election. Probably Pennsylvania Georgia decide. Key state Pennsylvania. Trump can lose Arizona Nevada Michigan Wisconsin but if he just flips Georgia and Pennsylvania he gets to 270.

 

[BouncerGuy]

US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?

Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president.

The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.

The big question now is - will the result mean a second Donald Trump term or America’s first woman president?

As election day approaches, we'll be keeping track of the polls and seeing what effect big events like Tuesday’s presidential debate have on the race for the White House.

Who is leading national polls?

In the months leading up to Biden’s decision to drop out of the race, polls consistently showed him trailing former president Trump. Although hypothetical at the time, several polls suggested Harris wouldn’t fare much better.

But the race tightened after she hit the campaign trail and she developed a small lead over her rival in an average of national polls that she has maintained since. The latest national polling averages for the two candidates are shown below, rounded to the nearest whole number.

In the poll tracker chart below, the trend lines show how those averages have changed since Harris entered the race and the dots show the spread of the individual poll results.

Harris hit 47% during her party’s four-day convention in Chicago, which she brought to a close on 22 August with a speech promising a "new way forward" for all Americans. Her numbers have moved very little since then.

Trump’s average has also remained relatively steady, hovering around 44%, and there was no significant boost from the endorsement of Robert F Kennedy, who ended his independent candidacy on 23 August.

While these national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, they're not necessarily an accurate way to predict the result of the election.

That's because the US uses an electoral college system to elect its president, so winning the most votes can be less important than where they are won.

There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.

Who is winning in battleground states?

Right now, the polls are very tight in the seven battleground states, which makes it hard to know who is really leading the race. There are fewer state polls than national polls so we have less data to work with and every poll has a margin of error that means the numbers could be higher or lower.

As is stands, recent polls suggest there is less than one percentage point separating the two candidates in some states. That includes Pennsylvania, which is key as it has the highest number of electoral votes on offer and therefore makes it easier for the winner to reach the 270 votes needed.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin had all been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same this year then she will be on course to win the election.

In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day Joe Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven battleground states.

How are these averages created?

The figures we have used in the graphics above are averages created by polling analysis website 538, which is part of American news network ABC News. To create them, 538 collect the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies.

As part of their quality control, 538 only include polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the poll was carried out and how the poll was conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).

Can we trust the polls?

At the moment, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other both nationally and in battleground states - and when the race is that close, it’s very hard to predict winners.

Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies will be trying to fix that problem in a number of ways, including how to make their results reflect the make-up of the voting population.

Those adjustments are difficult to get right and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about other factors like who will actually turn up to vote on 5 November.

BBC

 

[FearlessRoar]

US Elections 2024: How religious beliefs are changing in the US and how it will impact the election​

America is one of the most religious countries in the West. About two-thirds of its voters identify as Christian.

But - things are changing and the nation has become less devout in the last few decades.

So how will this affect the polls in the 2024 presidential elections?

How religious is America?

We may think that faith communities are strong in the US - but religion is actually declining.

In the 1990s around 90% of Americans identified as Christian. Now more than a quarter say they have no religion.

This is significant to the election because 70% of non-religious voters in America are more likely to vote Democrat, according to a Pew Research Survey from April this year. The alignment is even stronger for agnostics (78%) and atheists (84%).

But religion is not fading across the whole of America. In some states, like Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama - essentially the Bible belt of America - it's actually getting stronger.

And American Christians, including Protestants and Catholics, are generally more likely to align themselves with the Republican Party.

But race plays a significant part - 84% of Black protestants and 60% of Hispanic Catholics are more likely to vote for the Democrats.

So while they're making gains in some less religious states, they're also losing voters in other more conservative parts of the country.

This is key when looking at the swing states.

Religion and the swing states

In the 2020 US election, seven US states were won by less than three percentage points - a very tight margin that could change this year.

These states were: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada.

These were mostly won by Joe Biden in 2020 - apart from North Carolina, which Donald Trump won.

However, in the 2016 election, Mr Trump won all of these states - apart from Nevada.

So which way are they likely to swing now?

If we look at changes from the 2010 to the 2020 Census, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia are trending less religious. While North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona became more religious.

If we go with the rough trend that less religious states are more likely to vote for the Democrats and more religious states are more likely to vote for the Republicans, this gives the Democrats the edge in four of the seven swing states - with Republicans winning only three.

But as you can see from the split - not to mention the other factors at play - it's a really tight battle for the swing states, and therefore the White House.

What about abortion?

In June 2022 the US Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion, known as the Roe v Wade ruling, leaving the decision to individual states.

As a result, 14 of the 50 US states banned abortion at all stages of pregnancy with very limited exceptions. Four have banned it past roughly six weeks of pregnancy.

Underpinning the ban is the belief among some religious people that human life begins at conception and that unborn children have a right to life.

While the new ruling was celebrated by many Republicans and Christian conservatives who wanted to ban abortion nationwide, opinion polls show that the majority of Americans actually support abortion access.

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has come out in strong support of abortion rights across the country.

While Republican nominee Mr Trump appointed three of the six US Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v Wade back in 2022, he is softening his stance on harsh abortion bans - perhaps because of that polling.

In August, he told an NBC reporter that he thought Florida's six-week abortion ban was "too short", adding: "I believe in exceptions for life of the mother, incest, rape."

Israel and Gaza policy

American evangelicals have solidly supported Israel's response to the Hamas attack since 7 October last year.

This is partly because of the Bible. In 2017, a LifeWay poll found that 80% of US evangelical Christians believe that the creation of Israel in 1948 was a fulfilment of the biblical prophecy.

That's despite the fact the US public is pretty divided on Israel's conduct in the war.

And in Michigan, a swing state where there is a large Arab American population, some American Muslims are particularly disappointed with the current administration's stance on the war.

Both Ms Harris and Mr Trump have stated their ongoing support for Israel in this war. Ms Harris has pledged she'll push for a ceasefire deal, while Mr Trump says he urged Benjamin Netanyahu to "stop the killing" - in his words.

US Elections 2024: How religious beliefs are changing in the US and how it will impact the election

The Republican party tends to attract religious voters. But could America's changing demographics make atheist support an asset for the Democrats?

news.sky.com

 

[hassan918]

Kamala Harris goes on offensive with 'tough on border' message​

US Vice-President Kamala Harris has made a rare trip to the US-Mexico border as she seeks to blunt Republican attacks on immigration.

Harris, who last visited the border in 2021, accused Donald Trump of being focused on "scapegoating instead of solutions" and "rhetoric instead of results".

Earlier on Friday, the Republican nominee argued Harris was "getting killed" on the issue and supports "the worst bill ever drawn" on border security.

Polls suggest more Americans trust Trump over Harris on handling the border and illegal immigration.

Cochise County, a conservative stronghold in Arizona that became a hot spot for record-high border crossings last autumn, provided a backdrop for the Democratic nominee to inspect the border wall, speak with local officials and project a message of toughness.

She claimed Trump "did nothing to fix our broken immigration system" as president, adding that Republicans were trying to force a "false choice" between border security and a "safe, orderly and humane" immigration system.

"We can and must do both," she told supporters at a campaign event in Douglas.

Harris vowed to further toughen asylum laws enacted earlier this year by President Joe Biden and to revive a bipartisan border security measure Trump helped block.

But Jim Chilton, a local rancher, said he has "seen the evidence" of what Harris would do in power.

"I've watched her and President Biden," he told the BBC. "We've had an open border policy. We now are understanding what that really means.”

Every year, thousands of undocumented migrants walk through Mr Chilton's 50,000-acre ranch just south of Arivaca.

He has motion-activated cameras that show the procession of people, all dressed in near-identical camouflage, across his land. He is convinced drug dealers and gang members are among them.

Menacing signs threaten trespassers with death, but Mr Chilton has also installed drinking fountains so nobody dies making the hazardous journey.

Three corpses were found on his land last year.

A Trump supporter, Mr Chilton does not believe Harris will crack down on the flow of migrants.

“She's changing her mind just to get votes and lie to us. It's outrageous," he said.

Concerns over stemming the influx are ever present in tiny border towns like Douglas.

Homeowners here can see through miles of border fencing into Mexico when they step out onto their front porches.

One woman said her neighbours built brick walls around their homes to keep migrants from hiding out in their backyards.

Even some Democrats here who are voting for Harris said they preferred Trump's border approach and felt safer during his tenure.

Last year, a handful of churches and the town's visitor centre transformed overnight into makeshift shelters to house newcomers.

Since then, the Biden administration has enacted tougher restrictions on seeking asylum and migrant crossings have plunged to four-year lows.

Gail Kochorek is a dedicated volunteer who drives down to the wall to hand out food and water to people on the Mexican side, usually waiting until after dark to cross back into the US.

To her, the political approach to immigration is increasingly dehumanising to people hoping to making a better life in her country.

She is disappointed to hear Harris promising to crack down on migrants but, given a choice between her and Trump, the Democrat can count on Ms Kochorek's vote.

Laughing at Trump's pledges to secure the border, she showed the BBC gaps in Trump's wall and where people could cut through the steel fencing.

The former president has vowed to seal the border by completing construction of the barrier, increasing enforcement and implementing the largest mass deportation of undocumented migrants in US history.

But earlier this year, he urged Republicans to ditch a hardline, cross-party border bill that was endorsed by Biden and Harris.

"That's the worst bill ever drawn. It's a waste of paper," Trump told supporters earlier on Friday at a rally in Walker, in the swing state of Michigan.

Denying that he lobbied congressional allies to tank the piece of legislation, Trump claimed Harris "want to see if she could salvage it and make up some lies".

"She went to the border today because she's getting killed on the border," he said.

In a statement following Harris's event, the Trump campaign characterised the visit as a "drop-in" and "photo op".

The border crisis has been a major vulnerability for Harris.

As vice-president, she has not directly shaped border policy but was put in charge of addressing the root causes of migration from the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.

Her efforts targeted systemic issues like poverty, corruption, and violence, which for years have driven large numbers of people from these regions to make the treacherous journey to the United States.

It is too soon to tell if the two-part strategy - bolstering democratic institutions and coaxing business leaders to invest in the region - is working, but Harris has taken a lot of blame for upward trends in migration.

As a candidate, she has highlighted her experience as a prosecutor when she was attorney general of California, particularly in investigating transnational and cartel organisations, to emphasise her approach to tackling immigration-related challenges.

Her recent remarks have aligned closely with Biden's emphasis on border security and law enforcement, but also reflect how the politics of the issue have shifted notably to the right.

As she seeks to convince voters that she has a plan, her biggest challenge is finding an approach that balances the legal and humanitarian aspects of the immigration system.

Source: BBC

 

[Red-Indian]

Still super-tight. 60-40 to Kamala I would estimate. No big momentum altering events like debates etc. left. It's down to maybe 2-3 states as this point.

Couple of things to keep an eye on as we get to the business end

- Polling in North Carolina. The Republican Gubernatorial candidate there is a scandal ridden disaster. That will real drop voter enthusiasm. If he drags Trump down with him and loses them the state, it could be game over.

- Since voter motivation and turnout will play a big role, early voting numbers will give us a big clue especially in Georgia. Early voters tend to lean Democrat and high early voting along the lines of the '20 election would be a strong indicator. Slightly muddied by the fact that Trump is also pushing early voting hard this time.

 

[hassan918]

A crucial election fight unfolds in Tim Walz's home state​

In this closely fought US election, vice-presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz were picked to sway Midwestern and rural voters who might be hesitating over Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. In Nebraska, owing to an electoral quirk, such voters could prove pivotal.

As an expert breeder, Wade Bennett can tell you the precise parentage of every one of the 140 head of Charolais cattle he keeps on a small holding on the edge of Nebraska’s rolling Sandhills.

Despite being a staunch Republican, he’s less certain, however, of the pedigree of the man once again vying for his vote.

Donald Trump, he says, would probably be “kicked out” of his voting shortlist if there were other conservative options available.

One of the least-populated states, Nebraska is, like much of rural America, not only deeply Republican but deeply Christian, too. And some here, like Wade, are uncomfortable with what they see as Donald Trump’s personal, moral failings.

But with Kamala Harris and a smattering of small-party candidates the only other options this November, Wade is putting his scruples to one side.

“Even as a Christian,” he tells me. “It is what it is.”

He’s focusing not on Trump’s character, but on his policies – and he likes the promises he hears to crack down on illegal immigration, cut the cost of living and put more tariffs on trade.

Even his slight hesitation, however, is enough to give Democrats hope.

The rightward drift of the American countryside over the past 25 years has been remarkable.

In 2000, Republicans had a six-point advantage over Democrats among registered rural voters, according to the Pew Research Center.

But by 2024, they had established a mammoth 25-point lead.

Even though only a fifth of Americans live outside the big towns and cities, the strength of their shift towards Donald Trump was key to his victory against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

But for Democrats, the rural vote is still worth fighting for, particularly where even small gains in already tight states just might make the difference.

So it’s no coincidence that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now have running mates whose white rural roots are being used to make the argument for who is best placed to speak on behalf of this country’s great Midwest.

Vice-presidential candidates don't usually have much impact on how people vote, but when Tim Walz and JD Vance meet in a primetime televised debate on Tuesday night, they will be hoping their different backstories and visions resonate with voters still unsure about Harris, a California Democrat, and Trump, a New York real estate developer.

Walz, the current governor of Minnesota, was born in small-town Nebraska, and has made much of his background “working cattle, building fence”.

His time as a schoolteacher and football coach before politics, and his subsequent record in Minnesota, providing tax credits to families and free school meals, are precisely the kinds of things the Democrats hope will resonate with struggling rural voters.

Ohio Senator Vance, on the other hand, is a man who’s also made much of his rural roots, but with a far less optimistic framing.

Vance rose to national prominence with his best-selling book, Hillbilly Elegy, the story of his family’s origins in eastern Kentucky, their struggle with poverty, his mother’s fight with addiction and the joblessness and blight of Middletown, Ohio, where he grew up.

Where Tim Walz has emphasised individual freedom and what binds Americans, Vance has focused on a "ruling class" that he says has failed working families in small communities all over the country.

In writings and in interviews, he has stressed the need for individual responsibility, rather than welfare - although he does not support cutting programmes like Social Security. And he echoes Trump’s vision of protecting American jobs and workers with tariffs and border walls.

A crucial election fight unfolds in Tim Walz's home state Nebraska

An electoral quirk could mean rural voters in Nebraska hold the tie-breaking vote in November’s presidential election.

www.bbc.com

 

[BouncerGuy]

Walz says he 'misspoke' in personal story about Tiananmen Square

US Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz has admitted during a live television debate that he "misspoke" when he claimed he was in Hong Kong during the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

Kamala Harris' running mate was asked by a debate moderator why he had repeatedly said over the years he was in Hong Kong as China’s communist rulers crushed pro-democracy protests, when he was in fact back in his home state of Nebraska.

Walz, who is governor of Minnesota, said: “I’ve not been perfect and I’m a knucklehead at times.”

It was not the first time Walz has fallen afoul of fact-checkers this campaign cycle.

His opponent on the debate stage, Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance, has also courted controversy with unfounded claims in this campaign, most notably about Haitian immigrants eating pets.

In Tuesday night's CBS debate in New York City, the moderator asked Walz to explain why he had claimed he was in Hong Kong when Chinese forces killed hundreds, possibly thousands, of anti-government protesters in Tiananmen Square, Beijing, on 4 June 1989, shocking the world.

Walz touted his work as a teacher, congressman and governor, before saying he sometimes gets "caught up in the rhetoric".

When pressed by the moderator about the timing discrepancy, Walz replied: "All I said on this was, I got there that summer and misspoke on this, so I will just - that's what I've said."

He has previously said he was in Hong Kong a month before Tiananmen Square, then forged ahead with a yearlong teaching stint in the country in mainland China after the massacre.

But news reports from the time show Walz was in Nebraska until that August, when he left for China.

Republicans have branded him "Tiananmen Tim".

Walz has also recently revised the amount of times he has been to China. In a 2016 interview he said he had visited the country "about 30 times".

But the Harris-Walz campaign told US media this week the number of trips Walz took to China is "likely closer to 15".

This is not the first time that the Harris-Walz campaign has acknowledged the running mate "misspoke".

Aides for the Democratic ticket issued a clarification in August as it emerged Walz had talked in 2018 about "weapons of war that I carried in war" as a member of the National Guard. But Walz never served in combat.

This summer he said he and his wife started their family thorough IVF - a fertility treatment that became politically charged this election cycle.

His wife later clarified they used a different treatment, intrauterine insemination.

BBC

 

[Cricket Warrior]

Afghan man arrested in alleged US Election Day attack plot

The US Department of Justice has arrested a man who allegedly planned an attack on Election Day in the name of the Islamic State group.

The suspect, Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, is a citizen of Afghanistan residing in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, according to prosecutors.

“This defendant, motivated by ISIS, allegedly conspired to commit a violent attack, on Election Day, here on our homeland," said FBI Director Christopher Wray in a statement on Tuesday.

The FBI said he was attempting stockpile firearms, and had taken steps to liquidate his family's assets and relocate members overseas.

FBI arrests Afghan man over alleged US Election Day terror plot

The man allegedly plotted to carry out an attack in the US on behalf of the Islamic State

www.bbc.com

 

[Cricket Warrior]

Harris losing ground to Trump in US presidential election, polls suggest

Kamala Harris is losing ground to Donald Trump with less than a month to go until the election for president of the United States, a series of polls suggest.

Harris’s lead over Trump has narrowed or vanished outright as the race for the White House approaches the final stretch, according to three polls released on Sunday.

In the latest NBC News poll, the Democratic and Republican nominees are tied nationally at 48 percent ahead of the November 5 vote, a turnaround from a five-point lead for Harris in the same survey last month.

In the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris leads 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters. The Democrat led 52 percent to 46 percent in the same poll last month.

The latest CBS News/YouGov poll shows Harris up 51 percent to 48 percent among likely voters, compared with a four-point advantage last month.

Following the latest figures, Harris holds a 1.4 percent point lead in Real Clear Polling’s aggregate of major polls, slipping from 2.2 percent on Saturday.

Harris losing ground to Trump in US presidential race, polls suggest

Democratic and Republican nominees locked in dead heat with less than a month until vote, according to new polling.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Aang_The_last_airbender]

Harris losing ground to Trump in US presidential election, polls suggest

Kamala Harris is losing ground to Donald Trump with less than a month to go until the election for president of the United States, a series of polls suggest.

Harris’s lead over Trump has narrowed or vanished outright as the race for the White House approaches the final stretch, according to three polls released on Sunday.

In the latest NBC News poll, the Democratic and Republican nominees are tied nationally at 48 percent ahead of the November 5 vote, a turnaround from a five-point lead for Harris in the same survey last month.

In the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris leads 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters. The Democrat led 52 percent to 46 percent in the same poll last month.

The latest CBS News/YouGov poll shows Harris up 51 percent to 48 percent among likely voters, compared with a four-point advantage last month.

Following the latest figures, Harris holds a 1.4 percent point lead in Real Clear Polling’s aggregate of major polls, slipping from 2.2 percent on Saturday.

Harris losing ground to Trump in US presidential race, polls suggest

Democratic and Republican nominees locked in dead heat with less than a month until vote, according to new polling.

www.aljazeera.com

Trump is looking inevitable. Chalo atleast the Ukraine Russia war will end in jiffy early next year.
Not sure, how Trump will deal with middle east situation.

 

[Cricket Warrior]

Record turnout in Georgia state as early voting begins in US election

The state of Georgia has reported a record turnout on the first day of early voting in the United States elections, revealing a high level of engagement in the key battleground state.

Hours after polls opened in the southern state on Tuesday, election officials reported that more than 251,000 voters had already cast their ballot in person.

US state of Georgia reports record turnout on first day of early voting

Georgia is one of several key battleground states set to decide the election, with turnout showing voter enthusiasm.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[deltexas]

Record turnout in Georgia state as early voting begins in US election

The state of Georgia has reported a record turnout on the first day of early voting in the United States elections, revealing a high level of engagement in the key battleground state.

Hours after polls opened in the southern state on Tuesday, election officials reported that more than 251,000 voters had already cast their ballot in person.

US state of Georgia reports record turnout on first day of early voting

Georgia is one of several key battleground states set to decide the election, with turnout showing voter enthusiasm.

www.aljazeera.com

This is a stunning turnout. It was 135,000 in 2020 and now its 251,000 in 2024 . Thats astounding. High turnouts always favor Dems. Maybe Harris is blowing this out of the park. Who knows ? But if was Trump, I would be worried. And this is in Georgia, a traditional rep state which barely flipped in 2020. Harris and the Dems should be happy

 

[Red-Indian]

This is a stunning turnout. It was 135,000 in 2020 and now its 251,000 in 2024 . Thats astounding. High turnouts always favor Dems. Maybe Harris is blowing this out of the park. Who knows ? But if was Trump, I would be worried. And this is in Georgia, a traditional rep state which barely flipped in 2020. Harris and the Dems should be happy

I'd been expecting this in a sense. Trump himself has changed tune and been urging Republicans to vote early. The Dems of course, especially in Georgia, have a formidable, tried and tested early voting mobilization infrastructure. As you said, Trump should be worried to start with. If he loses Georgia, his path is very, very narrow. He's been alienating the popular governor there for ages so not much support from him.

Big picture though, after a spate of recent polls - both swing and national that seen to show momentum towards Trump, all the forecasts have moved closer to 50-50.

This is probably going to be the closest election since Bush-Gore. We shouldn't expect to know the winner for days, even a week or two after.

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Early voting to open in another key swing state

Earlier on, we looked at how early voting will work in the 2024 presidential election.

North Carolina, a swing state, will see that process kickstart today - but it's not been as easy for the Sun Belt state as in other areas.

A few short weeks ago, Hurricane Helene devastated the US's south-east and was particularly bad in the western part of North Carolina where 100 people remain missing or unaccounted for.

In Buncombe County, one of the hardest-hit areas where dozens were killed, several buildings were destroyed - including planned polling locations. Yesterday, the county's Democratic chair Kathie Kline said the storm had left officials "concerned" that it'd be harder for Democrats to flip the state than originally thought.

Donald Trump carried North Carolina in 2020, but did so by just over 70,000 votes. The latest polling data suggests he's currently ahead in the state - but the below graphic shows how the lead has changed hands between the Democrats and Republicans since August.

Source: BBC

 

[The Bald Eagle]

The situation right now is in Trump's favor

 

[FearlessRoar]

Musk to give away $1m per day to Pennsylvania voters​

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has said he will give away $1m (£766,000) a day to a registered voter in the key swing state of Pennsylvania until the US presidential election in November.

The winner will be chosen at random from those who sign a pro-constitution petition by Musk’s campaign group AmericaPAC which he set up to support Republican nominee Donald Trump's bid to return to the White House.

The first lottery-style cheque was given away to a surprised-looking attendee at a town hall event on Saturday night.

The giveaway will effectively help to encourage potential Trump voters to engage in the campaign during the tense final weeks of the presidential race ahead of the vote on 5 November.

Those who sign the petition - which pledges to support free speech and gun rights - will have to give their contact details, potentially allowing AmericaPAC to contact them about their vote.

Musk, who has emerged as a key Trump supporter in recent years, launched AmericaPAC in July with the aim of supporting the former president's campaign.

He has so far donated $75m (£57.5m) to the group, which has quickly become a central player in Trump's election campaign.

The Trump campaign is highly reliant on outside groups such as AmericaPAC to canvas voters.

A statement on the groups website reads: “America PAC was created to support these key values: Secure Borders, Safe Cities, Sensible spending, Fair Justice System, Free Speech, Right to Self-Protection.”

Musk said he wants to get “over a million, maybe two million, voters in the battleground states to sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendment.”

“I think [it] sends a crucial message to our elected politicians,” he added.

Musk is currently the world's richest man, with an estimated net worth of $248bn (£191bn), according to US business magazine Forbes.

The 2024 presidential race will likely come down to seven key battleground states including Pennsylvania as well as Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.

Elon Musk pledges to give away $1m per day to Pennsylvania voters

The winner will be chosen from those who sign a petition by the tech billionaire's Trump-supporting campaign group.

www.bbc.com

 

[Cricket Warrior]

New cases of political violence roil US ahead of contentious election

In York, Pennsylvania, a man accosted a group of people rallying for Vice President Kamala Harris’ White House campaign, punching a 74-year-old man in the head and calling another man a “n— supporter” as he fled.

In northern Michigan, an assailant enraged by his hatred of Donald Trump used an all-terrain vehicle to run over and injure an 81-year-old man who was putting up a yard sign for the former president’s reelection bid.

The recent attacks were among at least 300 cases of political violence identified by Reuters since Trump’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, including at least 51 incidents this year. With just two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 presidential election, the cases are part of the biggest andmost sustained increase in U.S. political violence since the 1970s.

Some of the violence has been reported widely, most notably two assassination attempts on Trump, a Republican. Other high-profile incidents include three shootings in recent weeks at a Democratic campaign office for Harris in Arizona.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-cases-political-violence-roil-us-ahead-contentious-election-2024-10-21/

 

[BouncerGuy]

Musk to give away $1m per day to Pennsylvania voters​

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has said he will give away $1m (£766,000) a day to a registered voter in the key swing state of Pennsylvania until the US presidential election in November.

The winner will be chosen at random from those who sign a pro-constitution petition by Musk’s campaign group AmericaPAC which he set up to support Republican nominee Donald Trump's bid to return to the White House.

The first lottery-style cheque was given away to a surprised-looking attendee at a town hall event on Saturday night.

The giveaway will effectively help to encourage potential Trump voters to engage in the campaign during the tense final weeks of the presidential race ahead of the vote on 5 November.

Those who sign the petition - which pledges to support free speech and gun rights - will have to give their contact details, potentially allowing AmericaPAC to contact them about their vote.

Musk, who has emerged as a key Trump supporter in recent years, launched AmericaPAC in July with the aim of supporting the former president's campaign.

He has so far donated $75m (£57.5m) to the group, which has quickly become a central player in Trump's election campaign.

The Trump campaign is highly reliant on outside groups such as AmericaPAC to canvas voters.

A statement on the groups website reads: “America PAC was created to support these key values: Secure Borders, Safe Cities, Sensible spending, Fair Justice System, Free Speech, Right to Self-Protection.”

Musk said he wants to get “over a million, maybe two million, voters in the battleground states to sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendment.”

“I think [it] sends a crucial message to our elected politicians,” he added.

Musk is currently the world's richest man, with an estimated net worth of $248bn (£191bn), according to US business magazine Forbes.

The 2024 presidential race will likely come down to seven key battleground states including Pennsylvania as well as Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.

Elon Musk pledges to give away $1m per day to Pennsylvania voters

The winner will be chosen from those who sign a petition by the tech billionaire's Trump-supporting campaign group.

www.bbc.com

Musk is giving some US voters $1m. Is it legal?

Questions have been raised about the legality of cash incentives offered by tech billionaire Elon Musk to swing-state voters who sign his petition before the US election on 5 November.

The petition was created by Mr Musk’s campaign group America PAC, which was set up to support Donald Trump in the presidential contest.

Voters in Pennsylvania are being offered cash sums for simply signing the petition. And one random swing-state signatory a day is being given a million-dollar prize.

But legal experts have suggested that it may break American law to offer money for an act requiring someone to be signed up as a voter. BBC News has contacted Mr Musk's team and America PAC for comment.

What is Musk offering?

The petition created by America PAC encourages voters in six swing states - Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina - to sign a "petition in favour of free speech and the right to bear arms".

Those who refer another voter who signs up are promised a sum of $47 (£36) each.

Higher sums of $100 for signing or referring are offered in Pennsylvania, the battleground state that both the Trump and Harris campaigns believe could potentially decide the race's eventual victor.

America PAC says those who sign the petition are signalling their support for the First and Second amendments of the US Constitution.

Each day until polling day on 5 November, a $1m prize will be randomly awarded to any signatory in one of the seven swing states.

The first lottery-style jumbo cheque was handed out to a surprised attendee at a town hall event in Pennsylvania on 19 October.

Is it legal?

"I believe [Elon] Musk's offer is likely illegal," said Paul Schiff Berman, the Walter S. Cox professor of law at the George Washington University.

He pointed to the US Code on electoral law, which states that anyone who "pays or offers to pay or accepts payment either for registration to vote or for voting" faces a potential $10,000 fine or a five-year prison sentence.

"His offer is only open to registered voters, so I think his offer runs afoul of this provision," Mr Berman told the BBC.

The US Department of Justice declined to comment. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) has been approached for comment.

The strategy may be covered by a loophole, because no-one is being directly paid to register or vote, a former chairman of the FEC suggested.

Brad Smith told the New York Times the giveaway was “something of a grey area” but “not that close to the line.”

“He’s not paying them to register to vote. He’s paying them to sign a petition - and he wants only people who are registered to vote to sign the petition. So I think he comes out OK here,” he said.

But an election law professor at Northwestern University told the BBC that the context is important.

"I understand some analysis that it’s not illegal, but I think here combined with the context it’s clearly designed to induce people to register to vote in a way that is legally problematic," Michael Kang said.

Adav Noti of the non-partisan Campaign Legal Center said Mr Musk's scheme "violates federal law and is subject to civil or criminal enforcement by the Department of Justice".

"It is illegal to give out money on the condition that recipients register as voters," Mr Noti told the BBC.

Constitutional law professor Jeremy Paul, with Northeastern University School of Law, said in an email to the BBC that Mr Musk is taking advantage of a legal loophole.

He said that, while there is an argument that the offer could be illegal, it is “targeted and designed to get around what’s supposed to be the law" and he believes the case would be difficult to make in court.

What have Democrats said?

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, described the move as "deeply concerning" and called for law enforcement agencies to investigate.

In response, Mr Musk said it was "concerning that he would say such a thing".

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who has campaigned in recent weeks for Kamala Harris, said the offer was both "innovative and desperate".

"You only do that because you think you have to, but using a sweepstake is not a bad idea. Whether or not it will work is another whole thing. It could just as easily backfire," he told CNBC.

Is there a precedent?

Mr Musk has pushed back against the criticism, arguing that Democrats and their donors have funded similar initiatives in the past.

On X, he shared a post which said the boss of Meta, Mark Zuckerburg “did the same thing in 2020”.

Mr Zuckerburg donated $400m in the 2020 election - but this was given to two non-partisan organisations to help with the logistics around postal ballots. It was not given directly to voters.

The Democratic Party has invested in initiatives in the past elections to mobilise supporters, such as a $25m voter registration campaign in the 2022 US midterm elections.

However, this money also was not given directly to voters. The funding went toward initiatives that encouraged voters to register, such as employing people to knock on doors and television and digital advertising.

“It’s legal to pay people to go out to register voters, but you can’t pay people directly to register,” said Prof Kang.

What else has Musk done?

The world's richest man had an uneven relationship with Trump when Trump was president, but Mr Musk increasingly has voiced his displeasure with Democrats in recent years.

Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, he announced that he had left the party and encouraged his followers to vote Republican.

This year, he has involved himself in American politics like never before, making donations and supportive social media posts on behalf of several Republicans.

In comments last week, he described much of the US-Mexico border as tantamount to the film World War Z.

Mr Musk launched America PAC in July with the aim of supporting Trump's 2024 campaign for president. He has so far donated at least $75m to the group.

America PAC's website says it wants "secure borders", "safe cities", "free speech", "sensible spending", a "fair justice system" and "self-protection".

Trump said on Sunday that he had not followed Mr Musk's giveaway, but described him as a friend.

In recent weeks, Mr Musk has appeared on the campaign trail for the first time, first by Trump's side and more recently in town hall appearances by himself.

BBC

 

[BouncerGuy]

Labour volunteers helping Harris 'in spare time' – Starmer

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has sought to play down the significance of alleged interference by the Labour Party in the American presidential election.

The Trump Campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission in Washington seeking an immediate investigation – after the Head of Operations for the Labour Party, Sofia Patel, posted on social media that she had “ten spots available” for anyone willing to travel to North Carolina to campaign for Kamala Harris, adding “we will sort your housing”.

She said she had around 100 current and former party staff heading to America before polling day.

The post, on LinkedIn, has since been deleted.

Foreign nationals are permitted to serve as volunteers on campaigns in the US as long as they are not compensated, according to Federal Election Commission rules.

The complaint from the Trump Campaign is both pointed and theatrical.

“When representatives of the British government previously sought to go door-to-door in America, it did not end well for them,” it read.

That is a matter-of-fact reference to US independence around 250 years ago.

On matters more contemporary it requests “an immediate investigation” into what it calls “blatant foreign interference”.

Speaking to reporters while flying to the Commonwealth Heads of Government Summit in Samoa in the south Pacific, the prime minister said: “The Labour Party has volunteers, [they] have gone over pretty much every election.

"They’re doing it in their spare time. They’re doing it as volunteers. They’re staying I think with other volunteers over there.”

The Trump Campaign letter to the Federal Election Commission also says: “Morgan McSweeney, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, and Matthew Doyle, director of communications, attended the (Democratic) convention in Chicago and met with Ms Harris’ campaign team.

“Deborah Mattinson, Sir Keir’s director of strategy, also went to Washington in September to brief Ms Harris’ presidential campaign on Labour’s election-winning approach.”

Ms Mattinson no longer works for the Labour Party.

Party sources say Mr Doyle and Mr McSweeney went to the Democratic Convention in their own time, and that the Democratic Party didn’t pay their travel and accommodation costs.

Asked if the row risked jeopardising his relationship with Donald Trump, the prime minister said “no” – pointing to the dinner the two men had together at Trump Tower in New York last month.

“We established a good relationship. We’re grateful for him for making the time... for that dinner," Sir Keir said.

"We had a good, constructive discussion and, of course as prime minister of the United Kingdom I will work with whoever the American people return as their President in their elections, which are very close now.”

Sir Keir has never met the Vice-President Harris, Trump’s Democratic rival.

But he has met President Biden several times since becoming prime minister in July.

BBC

 

[BouncerGuy]

Why Harris moved from 'joy' to calling Trump 'a fascist'

On Wednesday afternoon, Kamala Harris stood in front of the vice-presidential residence in Washington DC, and delivered a short but withering attack on her Republican presidential opponent.

Calling Donald Trump "increasingly unhinged and unstable", she cited critical comments made by John Kelly, Trump’s former White House Chief of Staff, in a New York Times interview.

The vice-president quoted Kelly describing Trump as someone who "certainly falls into the general definition of fascists" and who had spoken approvingly of Hitler several times.

She said her rival wanted "unchecked power" and later, during a CNN town hall event, was asked point-blank if she believed he was a "fascist". "Yes, I do," she replied.

Shortly after the town hall finished, Trump posted on X and Truth Social that Harris's comments were a sign that she was losing. He said she was "increasingly raising her rhetoric, going so far as to call me Adolf Hitler, and anything else that comes to her warped mind".

In the home stretch of political campaigns - particularly one as tight and hard-fought as the 2024 presidential race - there is a natural tendency for candidates to turn negative. Attacks tend to be more effective in motivating supporters to head to the polls and disrupting the opposing campaigns.

For Harris, however, the heavier hand toward Trump stands in contrast to the more optimistic, "joyful" messaging of the early days of her campaign.

While she did warn at the Democratic convention of a Trump presidency without the guardrails, Harris largely stepped back from President Joe Biden’s core campaign message that Trump posed an existential threat to American democracy.

According to political strategist Matt Bennett of the centrist Democratic group Third Way, however, it is clear why Harris was quick this time to amplify Kelly’s dark portrait of Trump as a man with authoritarian tendencies.

Harris says Trump wants ‘unchecked power’

"Everything she does now is tactical," he said. "The imperative was to make sure as many voters as possible know about what Kelly said."

The vice-president’s latest remarks come on the heels of a multi-week strategy by her campaign to appeal to independent voters and moderate Republicans who could be open to supporting the Democratic ticket. Polls suggest the race is extremely tight, with neither candidate having a decisive lead in any of the battleground states.

The suburbs around the biggest cities in key battleground states – Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee and Phoenix, for instance – are populated by college-educated professionals who have traditionally voted for Republicans but who polls indicate have doubts about returning Trump to the White House.

"Her case for how she wins this thing is to create as broad a coalition as possible and bring over disaffected Republicans - people who just don't feel that they can vote for Trump again," Mr Bennett said.

Devynn DeVelasco, a 20-year-old independent from Nebraska, is one of those who had already been convinced by the long list of senior Republicans who worked for then-President Trump but now say he is unfit for office.

Although she hopes some Republicans will join her in supporting Harris, she worries there is fatigue around the claims made about the former president.

"When these reports [about Kelly’s comments] came out I wasn't shocked, it didn't change much," Ms DeVelasco told the BBC.

Republican strategist Denise Grace Gitsham said voters have been hearing similar rhetoric about Trump since 2016, so any new allegations were unlikely to move the dial.

"If you're voting against Donald Trump because you don't like his personality, you're already a decided voter," she told the BBC. "But if you're somebody who's looking at the policies and that matters more to you than a vibe or a personality, then you're going to go with the person who you felt you did best under while they were in the White House."

Both Harris and Trump have been sharpening their barbs in recent days. During a swing through Midwest battleground states on Monday, Harris repeatedly warned of the consequences of a Trump presidency – on abortion rights, on healthcare, on the economy and on US foreign policy.

On Friday, she will hold a rally in Texas – the state she has said most dramatically represents the anti-abortion future if Trump is back in power. Next Tuesday, she will shift focus to Washington DC, with a rally reportedly planned by the National Mall, where Trump spoke before some of his supporters attacked the US Capitol.

Trump, meanwhile, has continued his drumbeat of attacks on his Democratic counterpart. At a town hall forum in North Carolina, he said Harris was "lazy" and "stupid" and only became her party nominee because of her ethnicity and gender.

He also issued his own warning, saying that "we may not have a country anymore" if Harris wins.

None of these lines are a particular departure for Trump, however, as he has spent most of his campaign attacking Democrats and sticking to his core message on immigration, trade and the economy.

Harris’s closing pitch, meanwhile, directed toward winning over anti-Trump Republicans and independents, isn’t without its risks, said Democratic strategist Bennett.

"You are always shorting one thing to try to help promote something else," he said. "The candidate’s time and the time spent on advertising are the two most precious commodities. And how you spend those matters."

Trump has been a polarising figure in American politics for more than eight years now. Most Americans have strongly held, and deeply ingrained, opinions about the man by now.

If anti-Trump sentiment puts Harris over the top on election day, her latest strategic emphasis will have paid off. If not, the second-guessing will come fast and furious.

BBC

 

[FearlessRoar]

Arizona man charged over three shootings on Democratic office​

A man suspected of carrying out three shootings targeting a Democratic campaign office in Arizona was arrested and charged with terrorism offences among others, authorities said.

Jeffrey Michael Kelly, 60, allegedly had more than 120 guns and over 250,000 rounds of ammunition in his home, including a machine gun that was in his car, leading prosecutors to believe he was planning a "mass casualty" event.

Nobody was hurt during the spate of shootings, although the attacks led to the closure of the campaign building in Tempe, in the suburbs of Phoenix.

Mr Kelly is yet to enter a plea. A lawyer was quoted in US media suggesting his client was a "genius", but not a "menacing" one.

Arizona is considered one of America's closest-fought states, which have the capacity to swing the 5 November election in favour of either Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or her Republican rival Donald Trump.

The shootings at the Democratic campaign office took place in the dead of night when nobody was present, police said. The attacks began on 16 September and were carried out with either BB gun pellets or real bullets.

The office was closed after a third attack earlier this month. The local Democratic campaign has expressed its gratitude for the arrest, which reportedly followed a public tip-off.

In a search of Mr Kelly's home, along with the large seizure of arms, agents also found scopes, body armour and silencers, said Deputy Maricopa County Attorney Neha Bhatia. This led authorities to fear he was planning a bigger attack.

Among other offences, Mr Kelly is also accused of using razor blades to line campaign signs in a nearby village, and hanging these signs with suspicious white powder.

His lawyer told the court that his client had no criminal record and was licensed to own firearms.

Mr Kelly “probably would fit the definition of a genius, and not the type of menacing, cartoonish one as described by the state,” the lawyer was quoted as saying by the New York Times.

The suspect's bond has been set at $500,000 (£385,000). He appeared in court on Wednesday and is expected to do so again next Tuesday.

The 2024 US election has been partly characterised by violence. Trump has survived two attempts on his life - the first when a gunman fired at him during a rally in another swing state, Pennsylvania.

Arizona man charged over gun attacks on Democratic office

Police found a huge stash of guns and ammunition in his home, leading prosecutors to believe he was was planning a "mass casualty" event.

www.bbc.com

 

[The Bald Eagle]

"We’re the underdog in this fight," head of Young Democrats of Georgia says

Parker Short, president of the Young Democrats of Georgia, said that Republicans are generally favored in that state. “We’re the underdog in this fight,” he told CNN.

“I’ve been organizing since I was 14 and in Georgia we’ve always been the underdogs as Democrats, but we know how to win,” he said. Short pointed to the state electing two Democratic senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, and Joe Biden winning the state in 2020.

Short also said that key issues for young people this election cycle include abortion rights and also an opportunity economy.

“I think young people know what’s at stake and, you know, a woman born today in Georgia has less rights than a woman born before Donald Trump and (Gov.) Brian Kemp’s repressive abortion bans,” he said, adding that he really appreciates Vice President Kamala Harris’ messaging on an opportunity economy. “Allowing, you know, young people to buy a home, investing in small businesses and startups,” he said.

More background: Georgia took center stage in 2020, flipping blue for the first time in nearly 30 years when Joe Biden won by just 11,779 votes. That margin became its own story just a few months later, when President Donald Trump called Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger asking him to “find 11,780 votes” in order to turn the election in his favor. Four years later, Georgia is still in the spotlight, after it looked to be lost to Democrats with President Joe Biden leading the ticket. Now, polling shows a tight race.

Source: CNN

 

[Cricket Warrior]

Suspect arrested after Arizona mailbox set on fire, damaging ballots

A person was arrested after a fire was set to a mailbox in Phoenix, Arizona, damaging several electoral ballots, the city's mayor said on Thursday.

The Phoenix Fire Department said an unknown person arrived early on Thursday to a U.S. Post Office and lit a fire inside a drive-up collection mailbox.

While responding to the incident, firefighters forced the box open and extinguished the fire, it added.

A figure was not given for the number of ballots damaged but ABC15 reported that approximately 20 were damaged, citing fire department officials.

A spokesperson for the U.S. Postal Inspection Service said postal inspectors are reviewing and addressing all complaints of impacted political or election mail.

"Anyone who steals, disrupts, delays or otherwise tampers with political or election mail should know that the full investigative strength of the federal government will be directed toward them, including Postal Inspectors, special agents with the USPS Office of Inspector General and Federal Bureau of Investigation, and prosecutors with the Department of Justice," the spokesperson said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/suspect-arrested-after-mailbox-set-fire-damaging-ballots-2024-10-24/

 

[Kroll]

Should be boycotted by all decent and upright people, an evil entity that's funding and supporting another evil entity to carry out its crimes against humanity.

 

[BouncerGuy]

Democrats anxious as Trump gains ground in tight race

Two months ago, Kamala Harris was crowned as the Democratic presidential nominee at a jubilant national convention in Chicago.

For thousands of party faithful, she was the electoral saviour, replacing an 81-year-old incumbent who seemed incapable of defeating Donald Trump and winning another term.

But even then, senior party strategists told me they worried Democrats were overconfident about her path to victory. Now, as election day looms and anxieties grow, it seems their concerns were well-founded.

There is no doubt that Harris enjoyed a surge of momentum, and an instant and significant boost in the polls compared to President Joe Biden, who was lagging far behind Trump. Yet it appears she was winning back those who normally vote Democratic anyway, but who had worried about Biden and his age.

For victory, Harris needs to attract voters from beyond the Democrats’ base, while holding together the fragile coalition that helped Biden win in 2020.

The latest polls show a race that has tightened in recent weeks and is now essentially a tie.

Worrying for Democrats is that Trump has gained ground in the crucial "blue wall" states that offer Harris her clearest path to victory – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – as well as among black and Latino voters.

Although the race is neck-and-neck in the key swing states, poll numbers are within the margin of error. In other words, they could be wrong.

But Harris’s criticism of Trump, her Republican opponent, has become much darker in the last few days. At the convention, she laughed at Trump, dismissing him as an “unserious man” and “weird". Now she is calling him a “fascist” and “increasingly unhinged and unstable”.

Her original message of wanting to bring “joy” has turned to one of fear - warning of what she says are the dangerous consequences of a second Trump term.

Polling suggests Harris is likely to win the popular vote. But that won't be enough. She has to win key battleground states to win in the electoral college.

But in recent weeks as I’ve travelled through most of those states, the reservations many voters still have about Harris – a woman they feel they still don’t know enough about - have been clear.

‘I won’t forgive the Democrats’

Harris has a very particular problem in Michigan, which has the highest concentration of Arab-American voters in the US.

Biden won the state in 2020 by just over 150,000 votes, but his administration’s inability to rein in Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon has deeply hurt the party’s standing among the 300,000 Arab-Americans living here.

Harris, Biden's vice-president, is being held equally responsible.

In the Haraz coffee shop in Dearborn, a Middle Eastern-style café serving Turkish coffee and pomegranate juice, I met a group of lifelong Democrats who normally would be out campaigning.

I expected to hear some of them say they couldn’t vote for Harris, and would be sitting out the vote. But Samraa Luqman, who describes herself as further left than most Democrats, said she is not only voting Trump but is actively encouraging others to do so.

“I believe there has to be accountability for all the lives lost,” she told me. “I do not forgive the Democrats for it, and I will not be scared into voting for them.”

Chadi Abdulrazek said he could never have imagined voting for Trump a year ago, but now Samraa may persuade him.

“If I do want to punish the Democrats, specifically this administration, then I might have to consider that," he said. ”Every time I say that, I feel like I have to go and throw up. But also I think about my family, my people, in Palestine and in Lebanon”

The history of swing states in the US

Harris has spoken about her anger over the suffering in Gaza and Lebanon, but these voters want her to say she will refuse to supply weapons to Israel if they are used in strikes that kill civilians.

In Michigan, the working-class and union vote could prove pivotal, too. Jean Ducheman, a United Auto Workers union official in the city of Lansing, Michigan, is more optimistic about Harris.

When I spoke to him in July, he wanted Biden to step aside because of his age. But he also had deep reservations about Harris. Now he says he is convinced she is the best choice and that she is winning over some of his undecided colleagues.

Mr Ducheman believes that campaigning extensively in Michigan has made a real difference.

“She came and spoke to us and that’s really appreciated,” he said, despite the fact that some unions have chosen not to endorse Harris.

The biggest prize

The most important swing state is Pennsylvania because it has the largest number of votes in the all-important electoral college. With polls deadlocked, both sides have poured hundreds of millions into advertising here to reach undecided voters.

On every visit, I've found voters care the most about the economy. And it’s an area where Trump seems to enjoy a significant advantage: No matter how much Democrats point to rosy job numbers or economic growth, people simply felt better off four years ago before record-high inflation cut into monthly budgets.

At a national hunting and fishing event in Bald Eagle National Park, I met Gene Wool, one of those hard-to-find undecideds.

He said he was reluctant to vote for Trump because of what he described as the “scandals surrounding him”.

But Mr Wool is sure that when Trump was in office, food and petrol prices were lower.

“Most of my friends are probably going to vote for Trump,” he says, adding that he thinks Pennsylvania will swing that way, too.

Harris is focusing on women in the Pennsylvania suburbs - especially those who may usually vote Republican but are turned off byTrump’s rhetoric and behaviour.

Recent Harris events where she has appeared with moderate Republicans like former congresswoman Liz Cheney are aimed at persuading this group that it's preferable to vote Democratic even if you don’t agree with Harris’s policies – just to keep Trump out of the White House.

Could abortion make the difference?

Harris holds a very strong lead among female voters across the nation in an election with the country's biggest ever gender divide.

She has not campaigned on the historic nature of her candidacy, almost never mentioning that if elected she would be the first female president. But she does stress her support for women’s reproductive rights.

Trump boasts of appointing the Supreme Court justices who ended the nation's right to an abortion, in place for over 50 years. But he knows that the very strict abortion bans some states introduced afterwards are deeply unpopular with a lot of voters, forcing him to walk a careful line.

Early one evening in Phoenix, Arizona, recently, I joined some volunteers in a trendy downtown bar having a “postcard party”. They were writing personal messages about why they believe in abortion rights to be sent to Arizona voters. Many are not usually politically active.

In Arizona, one of the two battleground states in America’s west, there is a proposition on the ballot to decide whether to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution – effectively overturning the current law that forbids terminating a pregnancy after 15 weeks.

The hope for Democrats is that women in the ten states with such abortion ballot measures are driven to the polls by that issue, and while there, cast a presidential vote for Harris.

Nicole Nye told me it was the first time she had become involved in a political campaign, and she has already recruited a voter - her 62-year-old mother who had never voted before.

“I said to her [that] I’m very concerned about my rights. She was fortunate enough to grow up in a time when those rights had been secured for her ...It’s concerning that that’s up in the air for me."

Arizona polls suggest voters are likely to support the proposition by a wide margin, but that may not translate into votes for Harris. As many as one in five people say they plan to vote to guarantee abortion rights in Arizona, but at the same time cast a ballot for Trump.

Neither Harris nor Trump know who will be the next president of the United States. Nor do any of the pollsters or political pundits.

But it appears Harris has not been able to sustain the excitement and optimism she generated when she first became a presidential candidate. She now has to slog it out, fighting for every vote, to stand a chance of breaking what the last woman to run for US president, Hillary Clinton, called “the highest, hardest glass ceiling”.

BBC

 

[The Bald Eagle]

As the US presidential election approaches, the most recent polls show former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the race, with the economy playing a role in voters’ decisions

A poll released on Thursday by CNBC’s All-America Economic Survey showed that Trump leading Harris 48 per cent to 46pc nationally, with a margin of error of 3.1pc.

In the seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump leads Harris 48pc to 47pc, with a margin of error of 4pc for that portion of the poll.

This survey highlighted that many voters view the economy as the most important issue, with a significant number trusting Trump to handle it better than Harris.

According to the CNBC survey, 42pc of voters believe they would be better off financially if Trump is elected, compared to 24pc for Harris.

Around 29pc felt their financial situation would remain the same no matter who wins.

Similarly, a poll conducted by The Financial Times in collaboration with the University of Michigan Ross School of Business yielded similar findings. It revealed that 44pc of voters trusted Trump more on economic issues, while 43pc supported Harris.

According to the poll, when asked who would help them financially, 45pc chose Trump, while 37pc picked Harris.

Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics, which tracks national and regional polls, found Harris leading by 0.3 percentage points nationwide. But, Trump holds a 0.9-point lead in the seven swing states.

Another recent Wall Street Journal survey, released on Wednesday, found Trump two percentage points ahead of Harris nationally. The poll showed Trump with 47pc and Harris with 45pc.

Source: Anadolu Agency

 

[BouncerGuy]

Michelle Obama makes fiery abortion pitch as Trump courts Muslim vote

In her first appearance on the campaign trail alongside Vice-President Kamala Harris, former First Lady Michelle Obama urged Americans to cast their votes to protect the country from the "dangers" of Donald Trump.

In a fiery speech in Michigan - a key battleground state - Obama said the election was "too close" for her liking.

At another event in Michigan, Donald Trump vowed to breathe fresh life into the state's automotive industry and met with Arab-Americans he said could "turn the election".

Polls show the two locked in a tight race in Michigan, with Harris holding an extremely narrow lead 10 days before the 5 November election.

The state, with 15 electoral college votes, could lend a deciding edge to either candidate.

President Joe Biden won Michigan by a narrow margin of 2.78% in 2020 - about 150,000 votes - helping to propel him to the presidency.

In 2016, the state went to Trump by an even narrower margin of 0.23% against Hillary Clinton.

Speaking to a crowd of thousands at an events centre in Kalamazoo, Obama made repeated jabs at Trump, pointing to what she termed his "erratic behaviour" and "obvious mental decline".

The bulk of her speech, however, focused on a "genuine fear" of how a Trump administration could impact abortion rights, telling an enthusiastic crowd of voters that she believes a failure to elect Kamala Harris could have deadly consequences.

Many abortion rights advocates have raised concerns that abortion bans have threatened women's lives by denying them life-saving medical treatment.

"I'm deeply concerned that so many people are buying into the lies of people who don't have our best interests at heart," Obama said, adding that "ugliness will touch all of our lives".

Harris largely echoed Obama's comments, and told young Generation Z voters she understands why they might be "impatient" for change.

"I want to tell you that I see you and I see your power," she said.

At his own rally in Novi, Michigan, Trump largely stuck to frequent campaign promises about immigration, energy and the economy.

He was also joined on stage by a number of Arab-American and Muslim community leaders, including Dearborn Heights Mayor Bill Bazzi.

"We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine," Mr Bazzi said. "The bloodshed has to stop all over the world, and I think this man can make it happen."

Trump said he believes that the Arab-American voters can "turn the election" one way or another.

The state is home to the 'Uncommitted' movement, which does not support Trump, but has refused to endorse Harris for what they see as a failure to take a more firm stance against Israel during the war in Gaza, such as committing to a weapons ban.

At the Democratic rally in Kalamazoo, however, some voters said they were much more preoccupied with abortion rights and perceptions that Trump is "undemocratic", than they were about conflicts abroad.

Kelly Landon, a resident of Canton, Michigan, said that her primary motivation in this election was allowing female relatives to be safe and be in charge of their bodies and their own futures."

Ms Landon said, in her view, other issues are secondary to the health and safety of women, as well as "their right to live the way they want to live".

National polling averages tracked by the BBC show Harris with a slight lead nationally, although with Trump narrowly ahead in five of the seven battleground states that could decide the election.

BBC

 

[The Bald Eagle]

How Trump and Harris teams are wargaming for historic legal fights

With the presidential contest expected to be the most litigated in US history, both campaigns have spent years laying the groundwork for a post-election courtroom battle by recruiting lawyers in every state, wargaming possible scenarios and drafting potential pleadings.

Courts across the country have been flooded with lawsuits far earlier than in the 2020 election, mostly from Republican-aligned groups challenging everything from ballot rules to voter qualifications. And the legal challenges could continue for weeks or months to come.

In anticipation, both campaigns have assembled teams of lawyers in battleground states and beyond.

Donald Trump’s team: Veteran election lawyer Gineen Bresso is heading up the GOP’s so-called election integrity efforts, while David Warrington is serving as the campaign’s general counsel. Warrington is a Washington, DC-based lawyer who represented the former president during the House select committee’s investigation into the January 6, 2021, US Capitol attack.

After courts tossed all but one GOP lawsuit after the 2020 election, and several lawyers lost their licenses or faced criminal charges over efforts to undermine that election, sources close to the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee say they have been focused on recruiting legal talent this time around.

Kamala Harris’ team: Former White House counsel Dana Remus, who led the Joe Biden legal team in the last election, will again lead the legal fight for Harris. Sources familiar with the Democratic strategy say they have recruited hundreds of lawyers across key states with the expertise needed to fight a variety of challenges they could face.

Source: CNN

 

[BouncerGuy]

Harris pledges 'different path' at site of Trump 6 January rally

The night before Kamala Harris sets off on a final multi-day swing through the key battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election, she gave one last speech, practically in the shadow of the White House.

The venue choice was no accident. Donald Trump held his rally on 6 January 2021 in the same place, speaking to supporters just hours before thousands of them stormed the Capitol and disrupted certification of Joe Biden’s presidential victory.

On a mild October night, Harris stood before what her campaign estimated was 70,000 cheering supporters at an event they may hope is a counterpoint to that cold, violent January day.

And in the unlikely chance the symbolism was missed by anyone watching, Harris made it explicit early in her speech.

“We know who Donald Trump is,” she said on Tuesday. “He is the person who stood at this very spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the United States Capitol to overturn the will of the people in a free and fair election.”

Harris didn’t dwell on the 6 January riot, however. The venue did most of the heavy lifting, providing the subtext to the speech and the point from which Harris could pivot.

While she opened by darkly warning of an “unstable” and “unhinged” Trump “obsessed with revenge”, she turned to focus on what she called her “different path”.

Acknowledging that many undecided American voters “are still getting to know” her after her abbreviated presidential campaign, Harris touched on the highlights of her biography and upbringing.

She went on to hit some of her top policy proposals, including lowering the cost of housing, expanding the child tax credit and adding homecare coverage to government-provided health insurance for the elderly.

She spent even more time talking about abortion and the need to enact legislation that provides national abortion rights – a particularly strong area for Democrats over Republican opponents.

It was, in effect, a trimmed-down version of her Democratic National Convention address – a bookend to the late August speech that the campaign billed as an introduction to Americans.

Democrats were riding high back then, enthusiastic about their new nominee after weeks of despondency and infighting that led to Biden’s decision to abandon his re-election bid.

Since then, Harris’s campaign has had ups and downs, and is now locked in what is shaping up to be a photo finish next week.

If the polls are accurate, Harris still has work to be done to win over undecided Americans – and this speech was her last, biggest effort to do so on a prominent stage, with the White House looming over her shoulder.

Setting aside her biographical highlights and policy details, the message her campaign seems to want voters to have in mind on election day is one of contrasts – of division versus unity; bitterness versus hope; partisanship versus co-operation; past versus future.

“I pledge to seek common ground and common sense solutions to make your lives better,” Harris said. “I am not looking to score political points. I am looking to make progress.”

As she was delivering her speech, however, the current resident of the building behind her made comments that illustrated how difficult her task might be.

Biden, speaking of a derisive joke about Puerto Rico that a comedian made at a Trump rally on Sunday, appeared to refer to Trump supporters as “garbage”.

The president later claimed he was referring only to the comments made by the rally speaker. But the video of his remarks are unclear – and the episode was already distracting from Harris’ event on Tuesday evening.

It’s just one more obstacle Harris will have to overcome, along with assuaging Americans' concerns about the economy and immigration - where polls indicate Trump has the advantage.

She tried to address those in her speech as well, even if they seemed to take a back seat to more lofty language and pointed attacks.

Her speech framed the election in a way that is to her advantage. Next Tuesday will reveal whether a majority of the American public – or at least a plurality in enough key battleground states - agrees.

BBC

 

[Cricket Warrior]

Democrats have a plan if Trump prematurely declares election victory

Democrats are readying a rapid-fire response to flood social media and the airwaves with calls for calm and patience with vote-counting should Donald Trump try to prematurely claim election victory, as he did in 2020, Harris campaign and party officials told Reuters.

The Republican candidate told reporters this week that he hoped to be able to declare victory on Election Day, although election experts have cautioned that it could take several days for the final result to be known, especially if there are demands for vote recounts in some key areas. Trump is locked in a razor-thin race with Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

U.S. election winners are typically declared by major media outlets who analyze vote counts provided by election officials. While candidates sometimes declare victory before those calls are made, it is unusual to do so before the winner is at least arguably apparent.

"We are sadly ready if he does and, if we know that he is actually manipulating the press and attempting to manipulate the consensus of the American people ... we are prepared to respond," Harris said in an interview with ABC on Wednesday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-have-plan-if-trump-prematurely-declares-election-victory-2024-11-01/

 

[FearlessRoar]

Trump complains about microphone at Wisconsin rally

Donald Trump's rally in Wisconsin on Friday night had a slight hiccup about 10 minutes into the event as the former president encountered issues with his microphone.

The crowd at the Milwaukee event began chanting "fix the mic" because they couldn't hear him.

"I think the mic stinks," the former president said before removing it from the stand.

He later asked his audience: “Do you want to see me knock the hell out of people backstage?”

“I get so angry. I’m up here seething. I’m seething," he added, while holding the mic in his hand.

"I’m blowing out my left arm, now I’m going to blow out my right arm, and I’m blowing out my damn throat too, because of these stupid people."

He then jokingly said: "I'll make you a deal. Pretend you’re listening to it perfectly and I’ll come back and do another one, OK?” before hitting the mic against the stand.

BBC

 

[FearlessRoar]

Trump supporter brings trash bag to rally: 'That's what Biden thinks we are'

We’ve been here since before dawn in Gastonia, North Carolina - and so has this line of Trump supporters.

This is likely to be the former president’s penultimate rally of this election cycle, and people here tell us they’re hoping for a fun day ahead.

In the line, we meet Becky, who explains her outfit. “I’m wearing a 2020 cap,” she tells me, pointing to her pink hat “because thanks to Bidenomics, I can’t afford a new one.”

“And you want to see my outfit for later?” she exclaims, gesturing to the trash bag she plans to wear in the crowd. “Because that's what Biden thinks we are,” she says, referring to the president's remark appearing to call Trump backers "garbage" earlier this week - though Biden's office has denied that was his meaning.

Vice President Kamala Harris has sought to distance herself from her boss' comment, saying she strongly disagrees with criticising people based on who they vote for.

BBC

 

[FearlessRoar]

Nicole Wallace calls on Bush to denounce Trump

Nicole Wallace, who used to work in the White House under former Republican president George W Bush, is calling on her old boss to back Kamala Harris.

During her regular programming on MSNBC, she encouraged Bush to have a "change of heart" over his position to remain silent this election.

"Where is George W Bush," Wallace asked.

Her comments were made in the wake of Donald Trump's remarks about Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman who has been both a vocal Trump critic and Harris supporter.

Trump previously said about Cheney: "Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her."

Elected leaders on both sides of the aisle have condemned his comments. Harris said it should disqualify him from office. Trump said he wasn't suggesting violence at Cheney but was criticising her record of being a "war hawk".

BBC

 

[BouncerGuy]

Crowdsourced voter fraud claims flood social media before US election

Rumours, misleading allegations and outright lies about voting and fraud are flooding online spaces in unprecedented numbers in advance of the US election.

Hundreds of incidents involving purported voting irregularities are being collected and spread by individuals, as well as both independent and Republican-affiliated groups. A small number of posts are also coming from Democrats.

The whirlwind of claims spreading online poses a challenge to election officials who are having to debunk rumours and reassure voters, while preparing to administer election day on Tuesday.

In nearly every case, the posts support the Trump campaign’s false claim that the former president won the 2020 election and suggestions that he will potentially be cheated out of victory again on 5 November.

When asked whether he will accept the 2024 election result, Donald Trump said during the presidential debate in September that he would if it was a "fair and legal and good election".

A majority of Americans - 70% - expect him to reject the result if he loses, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Monday.

Just this week, Trump himself claimed widespread fraud in a key swing state.

“Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before,” Trump posted on his Truth Social network. “REPORT CHEATING TO AUTHORITIES. Law Enforcement must act, NOW!”

The allegation followed officials in three Pennsylvania counties saying they were working with local law enforcement to investigate some voter registration applications for potential fraud.

While Trump and allies seized on the announcements, the state's top election official, Republican Al Schmidt, has urged caution and warned voters to be aware of "half-truths" and disinformation circulating on social media.

“This is a sign that the built-in safeguards in our voter registration process are working,” he said.

Flood of misleading content

The BBC has seen hundreds of allegations of election fraud online, on social networks and on message boards and in chat groups. Some of these posts have been viewed millions of times each.

The posts have implied it's easy for non-citizens to vote, made false claims about voting machines and sowed distrust in the ballot-counting process.

One video claimed to show recently-arrived Haitians voting in Georgia.

The BBC has found clear indications, including false addresses and stock photos, which indicate the video is a fake. On Friday US security officials said it was made by "Russian influence actors".

Another person on X claiming they were Canadian posted a picture of a ballot and said: “Figured I would drive across the border and vote."

It, too, is a fake, and part of an effort co-ordinated on the fringe message board 4chan. The ballot shown is from Florida, a state that requires identification to vote in person and is about a 20-hour drive from the Canadian border.

Meanwhile in Northhampton County, Pennsylvania, a video was posted on X showing a man dropping off a container of ballots at a courthouse, alleging suspicious activity. It turned out he was a postal worker delivering mail-in ballots, but the video was seen more than five million times.

Echoes of 2020

Experts worry the burst of misinformation just before election day could undermine people's trust in the results - or lead to threats and violence in the lead-up to the election and beyond.

It's happened before.

In the hours and days that followed the 2020 presidential election, while votes were still being counted, then-President Trump turned to social media to allege fraud and falsely claim that he was the real winner of the election. "Stop the steal" became a slogan of his supporters' movement to overturn the results.

On social media, chatrooms and during street protests, conspiracy theorists alleged widespread voter fraud, culminating with a riot at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.

Meanwhile, in battleground states like Georgia, election officials - civil servants whose job it is to oversee the election - faced death threats.

While false claims about voting ramped up after the 2020 vote, groups that monitor this kind of activity say this year it has started well before election day.

Wendy Via, founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE), said some far-right and right-wing activists “are preparing themselves for the election to be stolen in a way they weren’t in 2020”.

“We cannot overstate the role of conspiracy theories in all of this,” she said.

These doubts have already reached Trump supporters on the ground. At a rally this week in Wisconsin, another key swing state, a number of people said they believed only illegal activity would prevent the Republican nominee from winning.

“I feel very confident about Trump, as long as there’s no cheating,” said Brad Miller of Green Bay, who mentioned that he’d already heard rumours about fraud. “Our only hope is that it’s not big enough to change the result.”

After the 2020 election, dozens of court cases alleging election fraud were lodged by Trump's team across multiple states, but none succeeded.

Isolated fraud incidents blown out of proportion

Experts say that isolated incidents of ballot fraud and administrative errors always happen in US presidential elections, which run across all 50 states and in 2020 involved more than 150 million voters.

But real incidents are now being catalogued and shared online to an unprecedented degree and being used, alongside fake posts, as evidence of widespread cheating.

In southern California, dozens of ballots were found in a storm drain. Despite the unknown circumstances around the event, online partisans immediately suspected deliberate fraud.

“They WILL cheat,” says one of the thousands of comments posted.

As cases have cropped up in recent days - including those in Pennsylvania and a Chinese student being charged with illegally voting in Michigan - authorities have repeatedly pointed to their investigations as examples of the robustness of election safeguards.

But those who believe conspiracy theories about widespread fraud see these incidents as evidence of a co-ordinated plan by Democrats to “rig” the election.

“Look at this new cheat voter fraud,” read one typical comment responding to the news from Pennsylvania. “Dems already doing their best to steal another election.”

The overall effect can have a disastrous impact on trust in democracy, experts say.

“These incidents are catnip for those who seek to undermine confidence in the election result,” said Luis Lozada, chief executive of Democracy Works, a not-for-profit group that distributes information about voting.

Groups behind the deluge

The mass of election fraud claims spreading on social media have been aided by a network of groups that crowdsource allegations.

Groups like Texas-based True The Vote, founded in 2009, have long been on the forefront of questioning election security.

On an app developed by True the Vote called VoteAlert, supporters post examples of alleged election irregularities.

They have collected a wide range of claims, from minor security oversights to allegations of deliberate vote tampering. The organisation also has people monitoring live-streamed cameras that have been pointed on ballot drop boxes in a number of states. Many local officials have repeatedly outlined the steps they have taken to make the boxes secure.

“Our hope is we see exactly nothing at these drop boxes,” said True the Vote founder Catherine Engelbrecht during one of her recent regular online meetings for supporters.

But she also hinted that Democratic-aligned groups were aiming to commit election fraud on a vast scale.

“If they want to try to pull the kinds of things that we saw being pulled in 2020, they’re highly unlikely to get away with it because we have, literally, eyes everywhere,” she added.

The BBC contacted True the Vote for comment.

A number of other groups are asking supporters to report alleged irregularities.

Elon Musk’s America political action committee has started a community – akin to a message board – on X, filled with rumours and allegations about voting. With 50,000 members, several posts go up every minute, almost around the clock.

Other efforts include the Election Integrity Network, a group founded by a former Trump lawyer who is challenging voter registrations and recruiting poll watchers – partisan observers who attend polling places.

The volume of messages on these platforms – along with the vagueness of some of the claims, with often anonymous sources – makes it nearly impossible to verify each allegation.

The groups, and the Trump campaign, say that these efforts are solely meant to ensure the integrity of the vote. The BBC contacted the Trump campaign for comment.

Bad information will continue to spread

The effect of this is unpredictable.

The Department of Homeland Security, in a memo reported on by US outlets including the BBC’s partner CBS, said on Monday that election conspiracy theories could spark action by domestic extremists.

And observers expect the wave of misinformation to continue well beyond election day. Polls suggest the election will be among the closest in modern US history. It may take days to count all the votes and determine the winner.

Luis Lozada of Democracy Works says the election is being conducted in an “ecosystem of distrust”.

But despite the doubts being sown, he says, “accurate information is getting out there".

“Election officials work very hard to ensure that elections are run properly, as they were in 2020,” Mr Lozada said. “That’s not going to stop folks from taking anecdotes, and trying to punch holes.”

BBC

 

[FearlessRoar]

Harris ‘broke it and we will fix it’, Trump pledges

Trump kicked off his Pennsylvania rally with a question that has become a key mantra of his 2024 campaign: “Do you like it better now or four years ago?”

I’ve come today with a message of hope for all Americans,” he continued. “With your vote on Tuesday, I will end inflation, I will stop the invasion of massive numbers of criminals coming into our country… and I will bring back the American dream.

“This is all you need to know: Kamala broke it and we will fix it,” he added.

We’ll bring you more from his ongoing rally shortly.

Al Jazeera

 

[FearlessRoar]

Who is in the lead in swing state polls?​

Al Jazeera

 

[Cricket Warrior]

US states worried about election unrest take security precautions

A security fence rings a Las Vegas building where Nevada tabulates votes. An Arizona sheriff has his department on high alert to guard against potential violence with drones and snipers on standby. Governors of at least three states have called for National Guard troops to help maintain the peace.

As a tense America votes for either Republican Donald Trump or Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris for president, concerns about potential political violence have prompted officials to take a variety of measures to bolster security during and after Election Day.

Many of the most visible moves can be seen in the battleground states that will decide the presidential election, states like Nevada where protests by supporters of former President Donald Trump broke out after the 2020 election.

This year, a security fence rings the scene of some of those protests - the Las Vegas tabulation center. Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo said last week he had activated a "limited contingent" of 60 members of the National Guard to ensure a timely response to any challenges.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-states-worried-about-election-unrest-take-security-precautions-2024-11-04/

 

[sweep_shot]

I think Kamala may win it. I expect it to be a close election.

 

[BouncerGuy]

I think Kamala may win it. I expect it to be a close election.

I guess trump has the upper hand.

 

[BouncerGuy]

Drones and snipers on standby to protect Arizona vote-counters

Razor wire. Thick black iron fencing. Metal detectors. Armed security guards. Bomb sweeps.

The security at this centre where workers count ballots mirrors what you might see at an airport - or even a prison. And, if needed, plans are in place to further bolster security to include drones, officers on horseback and police snipers on rooftops.

Maricopa County became the centre of election conspiracy theories during the 2020 presidential contest, after Donald Trump spread unfounded claims of voter fraud when he lost the state to Joe Biden by fewer than 11,000 votes.

Falsehoods went viral, armed protesters flooded the building where ballots were being tallied and a flurry of lawsuits and audits aimed to challenge the results.

The election’s aftermath transformed how officials here handle the typically mundane procedure of counting ballots and ushered in a new era of high security.

“We do treat this like a major event, like the Super Bowl,” Maricopa County Sheriff Russ Skinner told the BBC.

The county, the fourth most populous in the US and home to about 60% of Arizona's voters, has been planning for the election for more than a year, according to Skinner.

The sheriff's department handles security at polling stations and the centre where ballots are counted. The deputies have now been trained in election laws, something most law enforcement wouldn’t be well-versed in.

“Our hope is that it doesn't arise to a level of need for that,” he said when asked about beefed-up security measures like drones and snipers. “But we will be prepared to ensure that we meet the level of need, to ensure the safety and security of that building” and its employees.

The election process here in many ways echoes that in counties across the country. Ballots are cast in voting locations across the county and then taken to a central area in Phoenix where they're tabulated. If they’re mailed in, the ballots are inspected and signatures are verified. They’re counted in a meticulous process that includes two workers - from differing political parties - sorting them and examining for any errors.

The process is livestreamed 24 hours a day.

While much of this process remains the same, a lot else has shifted. Since the 2020 election, a new law passed making it easier to call a recount in the state. Previously, if a race was decided by the slim margin of 0.1% of votes cast, a recount would take place. That’s now been raised to 0.5%.

The tabulation centre is now bristling with security cameras, armed security and a double layer of fencing.

Thick canvas blankets cover parts of a parking lot fencing to keep prying eyes out. Officials say the canvas was an added measure to protect employees from being harassed and threatened outside the building.

“I think it is sad that we’re having to do these things,” said Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates.

Gates, a Republican who says he was diagnosed with PTSD after the election threats he received in the 2020 election, doesn't plan to run for office again once this election is over because of the tensions.

“I do want people to understand that when they go to vote centres, these are not militarised zones,” he told the BBC. “You can feel safe to go there with your family, with your kids and participate in democracy.”

The county has invested millions since 2020. It’s not just security, either. They now have a 30-member communications team.

A big focus has been transparency - livestreaming hours of tests for tabulation machines, offering dozens of public tours of their buildings and enlisting staff to dispute online rumours and election conspiracies.

“We kind of flipped a switch,” assistant county manager Zach Schira told the BBC, explaining that after 2020 they decided, “OK, we’re going to communicate about every single part of this process, we’re going to debunk every single theory that is out there.”

It’s all led up to Tuesday's election.

“We may be over prepared,” Sheriff Skinner said, “but I'd rather prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

Some Maricopa Republicans told the BBC they’ve tracked recent changes and felt there would be fewer problems this election cycle.

“They’ve made steps that I think will help,” said Garrett Ludwick, a 25-year-old attending a recent Scottsdale rally for Trump’s vice-presidential running mate JD Vance.

“More people are also aware of things now and I think there are going to be a lot of people watching everything like a hawk," he said, wearing a Trump cap that read, “Make liberals cry”.

One Republican voter, Edward, told the BBC the 2020 cycle caused him to get more involved. He’s now signed up for two shifts at polling locations in Maricopa County on Tuesday.

“Going to a rally or being upset isn’t going to fix things,” he said. “I wanted to be part of the solution.”

Not all are convinced.

“I still think it was rigged,” said Maleesa Meyers, 55, who like some Republican voters said her distrust in the process is too deep-rooted to believe the election could be fair. “It’s very hard to trust anyone today.”

Results in Arizona often hinge on Maricopa County, giving the county an outsized role in the outcome. Officials here estimate it could take as long as 13 days to count all ballots - meaning the expected tight race in this swing state might not be called on election night.

“There’s a chance that in 2024, the whole world will be watching for what the result is in Maricopa County," said Schira, the assistant county manager.

"Truly the world’s confidence in democracy could come down to this.”

BBC

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Polls open in more states

Election Day is in full swing as polls are opening in more states.

Voters in Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia can now head to polling stations to cast their ballots.

Earlier, polls opened in Vermont and New Hampshire.

Source: Al Jazeera

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Biden will watch results from White House residence as he faces a quiet end to campaign

President Joe Biden’s name won’t appear on the ballot, but the stakes are high for the 81-year-old president and his legacy as he waits to see whether the country will send his predecessor or chosen successor to the White House next year, CNN reports.

The president has kept a relatively low profile in recent days and is expected to do the same today. Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will watch the election results from the residence of the White House with long-time aides and senior White House staff, an official said.

Biden, who has no public events on his schedule, is expected to receive regular updates as races play out across the country.

Today’s election looks far different than what the Bidens envisioned a few months prior as he hoped voters would elect him to a second term in the White House — and the result could help determine how the president is remembered.

Source: CNN