India are not favorites, he’s right. They’re second favorites, and I actually prefer that as slightly less expectations that too with the crowd backing you.
If we do an analysis on how the group stages are set up (it’s currently supposed to be the same groups as planned last year) then we have the following breakdown:
Group A
Australia
Pakistan
West Indies
New Zealand
Q1 (Sri Lanka)
Q4 (Netherlands)
Group B
England
India
Afghanistan
South Africa
Q2 (Bangladesh)
Q3 (Ireland)
Q1-Q4 will depend on the super league but I’ve pencilled in who I expect to qualify.
From Group B, SA and Afghanistan should really be no match for England and India. This is by far the easiest group and there are several leagues of difference between the expected semifinalists and the rest.
South Africa has been horrible across formats for some time now and we even have Temba Bavuma as captain which I don’t expect to be a good proposition (even if he’s a good captain, he doesn’t really make the limited overs team on merit).
Afghanistan can pull off an upset, and maybe even an upset against England for example, but they are highly unlikely to pull off enough upsets to make the semis.
I don’t consider Bangladesh and Ireland as worth discussing.
I expect India to qualify top of the table (B1) and England in second place (B2).
Semis
India vs A2
England vs A1
From Group A, it’s a much, much tighter race. Almost every team except Netherlands can make the semis depending on which team is in form during the tournament.
I expect Australia to be one of the qualifiers, as they are relatively stronger than all the other teams, with the other spot a free-for-all.
I expect Pakistan to beat New Zealand, Sri Lanka, and Netherlands. I expect us to lose against Australia (professionalism) and West Indies (bogey team). That’s 3/5 which is actually not bad and we can possibly qualify depending on the other results.
Off the top of my head, here are my expected rankings:
1. Australia: beat Pakistan, West Indies, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Netherlands (10 points)
2. Pakistan: beat New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Netherlands (6 points)
3. West Indies: beat Pakistan, New Zealand, Netherlands (6 points)
4. Sri Lanka: beat West Indies, Netherlands (4 points)
5. New Zealand: beat Sri Lanka, Netherlands (4 points)
6. Netherlands: N/A (0 points)
Dead heat for the second spot between the teams above ranked 2-5 as one win/loss extra by any will change the entire makeup.
A lot will come down to net run rate I feel. If I have predicted the wins and losses correctly (and indeed Q1-Q4 as well haha as other teams like Oman can also qualify) then Pakistan and West Indies will be tied for the second spot with it coming down to NRR.
I have a feeling West Indies will tank horribly against Australia and get choked by Sri Lankan spinners, and I also feel that Pakistan for one of the first times in our history might have a reliable combination with good batting depth, which makes sure we avoid a collapse. Ever since Babar has arrived, we haven’t really collapsed in T20s and now we have folks like Rizwan and Hafeez as well who know how to hold the innings together. Plus, we bat till 9 which should help us win comfortably in all games or lose gracefully.
However like I said earlier, the second spot is really up for grabs as anything can happen.
Predicted semis:
IND vs WI/PAK/SL/NZ
ENG vs AUS
Notice there’s a massive gap between India amd England and the Group A teams. I expect the final to be England vs India, with England to win if it’s a batting track.
If it’s slow, India.
Pakistan is lucky that the PSL was only postponed, not canceled.
We now get to keep our T20 series against SA to look at the finalized squad.
So far, the only players who have justified their positions on the team are:
Rizwan, Babar, Hafeez, and Shaheen.
Someone like Sharjeel is of good value as well, very explosive, but Rizwan provides the much-needed consistency.
Haider should play in the lower order where he can slog and bat at a high strike rate.
So if you start filling the team up, you get something like:
Mohammad Rizwan
Babar Azam
X (Either play Fakhar or Sharjeel down at 3, or see if there's a player who can slot at this number. It might mean that Babar Azam drops down.)
Mohammad Hafeez
X (Should probably be Shoaib Malik or Sohaib Maqsood. Malik gives stability, but if Maqsood fires, he can be a force as well.)
Haider Ali
X (All-rounder slot: one of Shadab, Imad, Nawaz, or Faheem)
X (All-rounder slot: one of Shadab, Imad, Nawaz, or Faheem) or a spinner (Usman Qadir, Zahid Mahmood)
X (Fast bowler options are Mohammad Hasnain, Haris Rauf, Hasan Ali or Wahab Riaz)
X (Fast bowler options are Mohammad Hasnain, Haris Rauf, Hasan Ali or Wahab Riaz)
Shaheen Shah Afridi
If we don't play Malik, we need to keep two all-rounders underneath Haider Ali because the lineup could misfire on a few occasions. These all-rounders need to have good returns with the ball and should be able to tonk a few if needed. The big question would be who to take from Imad and Nawaz. Neither have bowled extremely well in the PSL so far, though Nawaz was impressive against SA. Both are not quite reliable with the bat in T20s, so I don't really know how we're gonna decide on it. Nawaz can get spin, which Imad doesn't do. Imad is more economical though.
If Pakistan can get together a good playing XI, we can have a good chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. I think that we could probably knock over New Zealand, Sri Lanka, West Indies, and the Netherlands. Against Australia, we'd want to hope that it's a spinning track, because Qadir/Zahid would be more effective than Zampa who doesn't really spin it.
