Pakistan has been here before.
They were lucky from 1982-2000 that Abdul Qadir, and then Mushtaq Ahmed, and finally Saqlain Mushtaq were top quality spinners.
But there then followed a long lull in which Danish Kaneria was just a Minnow-Basher, Saeed Ajmal was a chucker and even Yasir Shah was an Asian Track Bully whose record in SENA was horrific.
And look where things are now! Sajid Khan and Nauman Ali are in the Moeen Khan / Jack Leach class. They may occasionally win a match on a last day Asian pitch which has broken up, but they are very mediocre indeed. Meanwhile Yasir Shah has only been a shadow of his former self for several years, and was a serial failure outside Asia even at his peak.
But what is the point of picking mediocre spinners in your team?
Pakistan's key weapons are Shaheen Shah Afridi and Naseem Shah - we have known for nearly 3 years that that would be the case until at least the year 2030.
But why back them up with dodgy specialist spinners who can bat a little bat?
I'd much prefer to pick both Shadab Khan and Zafar Gohar in Asia - and just one of them overseas - and lengthen the batting, shorten the tail, and improve the fielding.
This Third Test could see Pakistan 180-4 at Tea on Day 5, chasing an impossible 360 to win, but needing to bat out the final session with a new ball due after an hour and only the following batting left to come:
7. Nauman Ali
8. Sajid Khan
9. Hasan Ali
10. Naseem Shah
11. Shaheen Shah Afridi.
Imagine if that tail was instead:
7. Shadab Khan
8. Faheem Ashraf
9. Zafar Gohar
10. Naseem Shah
11. Shaheen Shah Afridi.
And worryingly, I don't think the spin bowling would actually be weakened by that switch.
If your specialist spinners aren't good enough, don't pick them. Pick spin bowling all-rounders instead.
After Graeme Swann, England had no spinner in the same class available. So they picked Moeen Ali instead.
But compare their actual output:
Batting:
Swann 1370 runs in 60 Tests at 22.09
Moeen 2914 runs in 64 Tests at 28.29
Bowling:
Swann 255 wickets at 29.96
Moeen 195 wickets at 36.66
Would I prefer to have Graeme Swann ahead of Moeen Ali? Of course I would.
But when no specialist of that quality is available - like for Pakistan today - then by all means pick the all-rounder who is decent at batting, bowling and fielding.
I don't think India would have won the Final Test - and series - in Australia last year had they played R Ashwin instead of Washington Sundar.
But Sundar contributed:
3-89
62 (coming in at 161-5, in reply to 369 all out).
1-80
22 (coming in at 265-5, against the second new ball, chasing 328 to win).
....and that allowed the Test to be won.
Pakistan doesn't have a top class spinner. So they should pick a Washington Sundar or two instead.
They were lucky from 1982-2000 that Abdul Qadir, and then Mushtaq Ahmed, and finally Saqlain Mushtaq were top quality spinners.
But there then followed a long lull in which Danish Kaneria was just a Minnow-Basher, Saeed Ajmal was a chucker and even Yasir Shah was an Asian Track Bully whose record in SENA was horrific.
And look where things are now! Sajid Khan and Nauman Ali are in the Moeen Khan / Jack Leach class. They may occasionally win a match on a last day Asian pitch which has broken up, but they are very mediocre indeed. Meanwhile Yasir Shah has only been a shadow of his former self for several years, and was a serial failure outside Asia even at his peak.
But what is the point of picking mediocre spinners in your team?
Pakistan's key weapons are Shaheen Shah Afridi and Naseem Shah - we have known for nearly 3 years that that would be the case until at least the year 2030.
But why back them up with dodgy specialist spinners who can bat a little bat?
I'd much prefer to pick both Shadab Khan and Zafar Gohar in Asia - and just one of them overseas - and lengthen the batting, shorten the tail, and improve the fielding.
This Third Test could see Pakistan 180-4 at Tea on Day 5, chasing an impossible 360 to win, but needing to bat out the final session with a new ball due after an hour and only the following batting left to come:
7. Nauman Ali
8. Sajid Khan
9. Hasan Ali
10. Naseem Shah
11. Shaheen Shah Afridi.
Imagine if that tail was instead:
7. Shadab Khan
8. Faheem Ashraf
9. Zafar Gohar
10. Naseem Shah
11. Shaheen Shah Afridi.
And worryingly, I don't think the spin bowling would actually be weakened by that switch.
If your specialist spinners aren't good enough, don't pick them. Pick spin bowling all-rounders instead.
After Graeme Swann, England had no spinner in the same class available. So they picked Moeen Ali instead.
But compare their actual output:
Batting:
Swann 1370 runs in 60 Tests at 22.09
Moeen 2914 runs in 64 Tests at 28.29
Bowling:
Swann 255 wickets at 29.96
Moeen 195 wickets at 36.66
Would I prefer to have Graeme Swann ahead of Moeen Ali? Of course I would.
But when no specialist of that quality is available - like for Pakistan today - then by all means pick the all-rounder who is decent at batting, bowling and fielding.
I don't think India would have won the Final Test - and series - in Australia last year had they played R Ashwin instead of Washington Sundar.
But Sundar contributed:
3-89
62 (coming in at 161-5, in reply to 369 all out).
1-80
22 (coming in at 265-5, against the second new ball, chasing 328 to win).
....and that allowed the Test to be won.
Pakistan doesn't have a top class spinner. So they should pick a Washington Sundar or two instead.