Who Pulls the Strings in the Proxy War in the Horn of Africa?

[Junaids]

A few years ago I showed [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] how the end of Apartheid actually was the direct consequence of Cuban military action in Angola. This story relates to similar events taking place right now.

The war in Ethiopia is going under most people’s radar, and that is precisely how the external powers which are involved want it to be.

Ethiopia is a highly unusual country. It used to extend from inland of Somalia to the Red Sea coast, giving it huge strategic value as the west coast of the Red Sea, opposite Saudi Arabia and Yemen and at the entrance to the Suez Canal.

In the 1980s the population was around 50 million, and famine hit badly in the early 1980s. Ethiopia had only been colonized by Italy, of all countries, in the 1930’s, and the northernmost area, Eritrea, was still like a 1930’s Italian colonial museum.

(In the legendary comedy “Blackadder Goes Forth”, Blackadder recalls the fictional battle of Umbotu Gorge, in which the natives attacked the British with sharpened mangoes. This was actually based upon Italy’s actual defeat by Ethiopia in the Battle of Adwa in 1986.)

Ethiopia was run by a communist terror organization known as the Derg until the late 1980s, when it came under the control of the Tigrayan Ethiopians. Ethiopia is a nation of multiple ethnic groups, and the Tigrayans hold sway in the northern area of Eritrea and in Tigray itself, just south of Eritrea. The fall of the Derg led to Eritrean independence, which took with it Ethiopia’s coastline.

For a quarter of a century Ethiopia developed rapidly economically with the Tigrayans the leading part of the government. Its population has doubled now to around 120 million. Meanwhile Eritrea, with just 3.5 million people, stagnated under fearsome one-man rule by a President who instituted lifelong military service and who clamped down on every possible expression of opposition. It is the only country on earth rated as more repressive and less free than North Korea! But it has that strategic Red Sea coastline, and its port of Assab is just 60 km from Yemen’s port of Mocha.

Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a long and futile border war, in which the Eritrean side in particular committed extreme atrocities against the local Tigrayan border population. (Eritrea also fought a border war with its coastal neighbor, Djibouti.)

Finally three years ago a new Prime Minister came to power in Ethiopia. The new PM, Abiy Ahmed, was not Tigrayan and immediately entered and concluded peace talks with Eritrea, and ejected the Tigrayans from his government. He won a Nobel Peace Prize for ending the war.

Ethiopia continued to boom economically, and the population neared 120 million. Eritrea was satisfied that it no longer was at war on its border, although ultra-nationalist propaganda continued to demonise the neighbouring Tigrayan population.

Finally this time last year Ethiopia launched a military offensive against its own province of Tigray, claiming that Tigrayan nationalists had attacked government bases but offering no evidence to support this claim. The media was effectively locked out, given that the Ethiopians barred access and Eritrea has banned international media for years. And most of us quickly forgot that this war was even taking place.

But month after month news would seep out of appalling atrocities in Tigray. And it was so uncharacteristic of Ethiopian troops that it slowly became obvious that the Eritreans had invaded Tigray from the other direction, in coordination with the Ethiopian government. Women suffered extraordinarily gruesome rapes, hospitals were looted and destroyed and wells were ruined. It was clear that someone was trying to depopulate Tigray. And it became obvious that this was Eritrea burning itself a buffer zone.

But the offensive failed. Neither the Ethiopians nor the Eritreans could conquer Tigray, and now the Tigrayans are marching southwards to the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, and forming alliances with other ethnic movements around the country.

It has become clear that the war in Tigray was actually conducted by Ethiopia’s government at Eritrea’s behest, and was all about Eritrea exacting revenge on Tigray for the long border war that it fought when Tigray controlled the Ethiopian government.

And now the government of Ethiopia is under threat of imminent overthrow. The land of 120 million people, with a booming economy, looks like it may well suffer regime change as the consequence of a foolish civil war.

While President-For-Life Isaias Afewerki of little Eritrea sits pretty in his capital of Asmara. He appears to have directed the entire war, and it is certainly his invading troops who committed the worst atrocities of it – atrocities so appalling that it was obvious that only his army would commit them.

But it looks as if being the small, poor country is what will save him and his government. But why? And how?

It turns out that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been using secret bases in Eritrea to fight their war in Yemen amidst a total media blackout. In fact, it seems that the UAE launched airstrikes by drone against Ethiopian Tigray on Eritrea’s behalf.

This is a fascinating example of the tail wagging the dog. The country of 3.5 million people has got the country of 120 million people to destroy itself. And yet only the Ethiopian government is going to pay the price, because the Eritrean dictatorship is a client state of richer and more powerful neighbours.

 

[Robert]

As I recall [MENTION=132916]Junaids[/MENTION] you explained that Cuban intervention defeated RSA in their Bush War.

Apartheid fell after the USSR fell and the National Party felt safe enough to negotiate with the ANC without threat of Soviet support.

As for Eritrea - very interesting!

 

[SpiritOf1903]

This has been ongoing for a while. There was a fair bit of news when Islamists were involved but few snippets in recent times .. good read.

 

[Junaids]

As I recall [MENTION=132916]Junaids[/MENTION] you explained that Cuban intervention defeated RSA in their Bush War.

Apartheid fell after the USSR fell and the National Party felt safe enough to negotiate with the ANC without threat of Soviet support.

As for Eritrea - very interesting!

[MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION]

I don't quite agree with your calendar with South Africa.

The Cuban attack on the Calueque dam was in June 1988, after which South Africa completely withdrew from Angola. Namibia was where the dam's water supplied a power station, and quickly went from being an integral part of South Africa to being fully independent by March 1990.

But the USSR didn't start to lose the Baltic states until March 1990.

The timeline doesn't fit for the eclipse of the USSR leading to Apartheid South Africa surrendering. I would argue that Cuba had superseded the USSR as the opponent in Angola by 1986, and by 1988 it had achieved total air superiority over South Africa, as seen at the Calueque dam.

The dominos then fell quickly. Without air superiority South Africa could no longer hold Namibia, and so it finally achieved independence. And without Namibia, South Africa could not protect Cape Town from Cuban air raids, and the game was up.

 

[Robert]

This has been ongoing for a while. There was a fair bit of news when Islamists were involved but few snippets in recent times .. good read.

Don’t let [MENTION=43583]KingKhanWC[/MENTION] read that word. You Western dupe you

 

[mazkhan]

Isn't the population of Eritrea majority tigrayans / tigre

So don't understand why they would want to wipe out tigrayans in Ethiopia and ally with a non tigrayan leader in Ethiopia to kill their own ethnic relations .

It's like the Afghan taliban allying with punjabi generals to wipe out pashtuns in fata kpk would afghan pashtuns ever sign up to do that.

It's very confusing

 

[Junaids]

Isn't the population of Eritrea majority tigrayans / tigre

So don't understand why they would want to wipe out tigrayans in Ethiopia and ally with a non tigrayan leader in Ethiopia to kill their own ethnic relations .

It's like the Afghan taliban allying with punjabi generals to wipe out pashtuns in fata kpk would afghan pashtuns ever sign up to do that.

It's very confusing

Yes, that confused me at first too.

The reality is that Eritrea is a country effectively ruled as the private property of its unelected “President” Afewerki. Like any good old-fashioned African dictator his only real interest is his own power and enrichment and survival.

The case for Eritrea as a separate country at all is rather weak - as you say, they are not a distinct nationality or ethnicity. But Afewerki uses his total control of the media to create whatever public opinion he chooses, with any defiance rewarded by arrest and murder.

Close inspection suggests that Eritrea was the aggressor in its border wars with both Djibouti and Ethiopia. But Afewerki has developed a hatred of his Tigrayan neighbours in Ethiopia which may be due both to resentment of their role in the border war and fear that his own people may be tempted either to reunify with them or to overthrow him.

This, of course, is the problem. Eritrea voted thirty years ago for independence, by a huge margin. But Afewerki has ruled it as a cruel dictatorship ever since, with no constitution, elections or even laws, let alone human rights of any description. And he is happy to sell military basing rights to richer countries because he seems willing to do anything which makes him personally richer or more secure. And this does both.

 

[LongHorn]

Very interesting, I followed Ethiopias issue with Egypt over the Dam,

What do Tigrayans and Eritrea think about the dam? Do they support Ethiopia in its stance that it has right to upstream water or do they support Egypt

 

[Napa]

A few years ago I showed [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] how the end of Apartheid actually was the direct consequence of Cuban military action in Angola. This story relates to similar events taking place right now.

The war in Ethiopia is going under most people’s radar, and that is precisely how the external powers which are involved want it to be.

Ethiopia is a highly unusual country. It used to extend from inland of Somalia to the Red Sea coast, giving it huge strategic value as the west coast of the Red Sea, opposite Saudi Arabia and Yemen and at the entrance to the Suez Canal.

In the 1980s the population was around 50 million, and famine hit badly in the early 1980s. Ethiopia had only been colonized by Italy, of all countries, in the 1930’s, and the northernmost area, Eritrea, was still like a 1930’s Italian colonial museum.

(In the legendary comedy “Blackadder Goes Forth”, Blackadder recalls the fictional battle of Umbotu Gorge, in which the natives attacked the British with sharpened mangoes. This was actually based upon Italy’s actual defeat by Ethiopia in the Battle of Adwa in 1986.)

Ethiopia was run by a communist terror organization known as the Derg until the late 1980s, when it came under the control of the Tigrayan Ethiopians. Ethiopia is a nation of multiple ethnic groups, and the Tigrayans hold sway in the northern area of Eritrea and in Tigray itself, just south of Eritrea. The fall of the Derg led to Eritrean independence, which took with it Ethiopia’s coastline.

For a quarter of a century Ethiopia developed rapidly economically with the Tigrayans the leading part of the government. Its population has doubled now to around 120 million. Meanwhile Eritrea, with just 3.5 million people, stagnated under fearsome one-man rule by a President who instituted lifelong military service and who clamped down on every possible expression of opposition. It is the only country on earth rated as more repressive and less free than North Korea! But it has that strategic Red Sea coastline, and its port of Assab is just 60 km from Yemen’s port of Mocha.

Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a long and futile border war, in which the Eritrean side in particular committed extreme atrocities against the local Tigrayan border population. (Eritrea also fought a border war with its coastal neighbor, Djibouti.)

Finally three years ago a new Prime Minister came to power in Ethiopia. The new PM, Abiy Ahmed, was not Tigrayan and immediately entered and concluded peace talks with Eritrea, and ejected the Tigrayans from his government. He won a Nobel Peace Prize for ending the war.

<b>Ethiopia continued to boom economically, and the population neared 120 million.</b> Eritrea was satisfied that it no longer was at war on its border, although ultra-nationalist propaganda continued to demonise the neighbouring Tigrayan population.

Finally this time last year Ethiopia launched a military offensive against its own province of Tigray, claiming that Tigrayan nationalists had attacked government bases but offering no evidence to support this claim. The media was effectively locked out, given that the Ethiopians barred access and Eritrea has banned international media for years. And most of us quickly forgot that this war was even taking place.

But month after month news would seep out of appalling atrocities in Tigray. And it was so uncharacteristic of Ethiopian troops that it slowly became obvious that the Eritreans had invaded Tigray from the other direction, in coordination with the Ethiopian government. Women suffered extraordinarily gruesome rapes, hospitals were looted and destroyed and wells were ruined. It was clear that someone was trying to depopulate Tigray. And it became obvious that this was Eritrea burning itself a buffer zone.

But the offensive failed. Neither the Ethiopians nor the Eritreans could conquer Tigray, and now the Tigrayans are marching southwards to the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, and forming alliances with other ethnic movements around the country.

It has become clear that the war in Tigray was actually conducted by Ethiopia’s government at Eritrea’s behest, and was all about Eritrea exacting revenge on Tigray for the long border war that it fought when Tigray controlled the Ethiopian government.

And now the government of Ethiopia is under threat of imminent overthrow. The land of 120 million people, with a booming economy, looks like it may well suffer regime change as the consequence of a foolish civil war.

While President-For-Life Isaias Afewerki of little Eritrea sits pretty in his capital of Asmara. He appears to have directed the entire war, and it is certainly his invading troops who committed the worst atrocities of it – atrocities so appalling that it was obvious that only his army would commit them.

But it looks as if being the small, poor country is what will save him and his government. But why? And how?

It turns out that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been using secret bases in Eritrea to fight their war in Yemen amidst a total media blackout. In fact, it seems that the UAE launched airstrikes by drone against Ethiopian Tigray on Eritrea’s behalf.

This is a fascinating example of the tail wagging the dog. The country of 3.5 million people has got the country of 120 million people to destroy itself. And yet only the Ethiopian government is going to pay the price, because the Eritrean dictatorship is a client state of richer and more powerful neighbours.

It's just the old story of tribes intent on slaughtering each other, nothing different from what goes on in other parts of Africa and many parts of the world.

However I am skeptical that Ethiopia's economy "boomed" at any recent times, let alone "continued to boom economically", given that its per cap ppp gdp is $2,410, about half of Pakistan's and a third of India's (two poor countries).

 

[Napa]

I suppose the per cap ppp gdp quadrupling from $600 to $2,410 over a period of 15 years constitutes a form of "boom".

 

[PakLFC]

Africans do a great jo themselves. They are worse then us at destroying their own countries.

 

[Giannis]

Real Ethiopian history and culture lies in Eritrea, their arch rivals. Ethiopia is like the India of their region and claims to be the sole inheritor of the regional civilization and its history.

 

[Giannis]

Very interesting, I followed Ethiopias issue with Egypt over the Dam,

What do Tigrayans and Eritrea think about the dam? Do they support Ethiopia in its stance that it has right to upstream water or do they support Egypt

Eritreans and Ethiopians don't like each other, Eritrea only separated in the 90s so their attitude towards Ethiopia is like that of Bangladeshis towards Pakistan especially in the early decades, on the other hand Ethiopians deep down don't recognize Eritrea's sovereignty they want it to reunify sort of like how Indian nationalists viewed Pakistan until recently (some still do), I even had a Muslim Ethiopian friend (Oromo) that says "we'll get them back", this guy is barely 22 and a double minority (Religiously and ethnically) raised in America but even he buys the nationalist idea of annexing Eritrea.

 

[Junaids]

It's just the old story of tribes intent on slaughtering each other, nothing different from what goes on in other parts of Africa and many parts of the world.

However I am skeptical that Ethiopia's economy "boomed" at any recent times, let alone "continued to boom economically", given that its per cap ppp gdp is $2,410, about half of Pakistan's and a third of India's (two poor countries).

View attachment 112986

This is more complex than simple tribalism because the Eritreans and Tigrayans are the same tribe, ethnicity and language as one another.

You are right that multiple African dictators have used tribalism to empower themselves and to manipulate public opinion.

But the bottom line here is like what we saw with Mobutu when he turned the Congo into Zaire.

Eritrea is a country which has become the personal property of one vicious man, who treats his own people worse than animals.

But then again, where does the “Saud” in Saudi Arabia come from? Eritrea’s President has basically sold his country to the Saudis and Emiratis, which themselves are countries owned by one family.

And given that MBS is using Eritrea as an invisible base from which to attack Yemen, why would he care whether or not Eritrea is the world’s most repressive nation? There is no obvious reason why he should care, in fact the lack of international media in Eritrea is a big plus for his interests.

 

[Junaids]

I suppose the per cap ppp gdp quadrupling from $600 to $2,410 over a period of 15 years constitutes a form of "boom".

The population doubled and the per capita GDP went up 420%.

So the economy ended up 8 times larger in 15 years. That’s quite a boom.

 

[mazkhan]

The tigre and tigrinya of eritrea and tigrayans of ethiopia are inter connected related groups related to the ancient axumite Kingdom.

They are remnants of that Kingdom. Which centre lay in city of axum in tigray region ethiopia.

This is same area that was ruled king najashi and where the early muslims fled from makkah for refuge and given refuge by King najashi who was a christian and became a Muslim.

 

[chinaman00]

Yes, that confused me at first too.

The reality is that Eritrea is a country effectively ruled as the private property of its unelected “President” Afewerki. Like any good old-fashioned African dictator his only real interest is his own power and enrichment and survival.

The case for Eritrea as a separate country at all is rather weak - as you say, they are not a distinct nationality or ethnicity. But Afewerki uses his total control of the media to create whatever public opinion he chooses, with any defiance rewarded by arrest and murder.

Close inspection suggests that Eritrea was the aggressor in its border wars with both Djibouti and Ethiopia. But Afewerki has developed a hatred of his Tigrayan neighbours in Ethiopia which may be due both to resentment of their role in the border war and fear that his own people may be tempted either to reunify with them or to overthrow him.

This, of course, is the problem. Eritrea voted thirty years ago for independence, by a huge margin. But Afewerki has ruled it as a cruel dictatorship ever since, with no constitution, elections or even laws, let alone human rights of any description. And he is happy to sell military basing rights to richer countries because he seems willing to do anything which makes him personally richer or more secure. And this does both.

Meles Zenawi, the architect of modern Ethiopia and who ruled for 21 years until his sudden death in 2012, and Afwerki are actually cousins. Afwerki is incredibly hubristic and cruel dictator who has never gotten over his defeat in the 1998 war.

After the TPLF begun it’s democratization process and retreated from the center, Afwerki saw an opening to avenge his defeat. He allied with the rookie PM Abiy Ahmed and the Amhara ultranationalist who resented the Tigrays for lording over them for so long. The result has been terrible for Ethiopia and has destabilized the entire Horn of Africa. Afwerki sees himself as the king of the region and has misguided both Ethiopian and Somali leaders in subscribing into his dictatorial culture. Hence the tripartite agreement between the three leaders.

The Tigrays are very small minority (about 6-million in total) but incredibly brave and warlike. The Battle of Adawa, which humiliated the Italians, took place in the Tigray region and was led by generals from the region. Hence, it’s no surprise to see them defeat so comprehensively the combined militaries of Ethiopia and Eritrea and assorted regional militias.

In terms of external influences, both Turkey and the UAE have supplied armed drones to Ethiopia. The UAE has been specially involved in carrying out air strikes on TPLF positions during the opening stages of the war. It will be interesting to see how the TPLF responds once it comes to power in Addis Ababa.

 

[chinaman00]

Eritreans and Ethiopians don't like each other, Eritrea only separated in the 90s so their attitude towards Ethiopia is like that of Bangladeshis towards Pakistan especially in the early decades, on the other hand Ethiopians deep down don't recognize Eritrea's sovereignty they want it to reunify sort of like how Indian nationalists viewed Pakistan until recently (some still do), I even had a Muslim Ethiopian friend (Oromo) that says "we'll get them back", this guy is barely 22 and a double minority (Religiously and ethnically) raised in America but even he buys the nationalist idea of annexing Eritrea.

When you say “Ethiopian” you have to be clear on who you mean by “Ethiopians.” The Tigrays had no qualms about Eritrea seceding, in fact, they facilitated it. The Amhara, which have traditionally ruled Ethiopia are ultranationalist and don’t recognize Eritrea’s independence. Abiy Ahmed, who is from the Oromo ethnic group and born a Muslim before converting to a strand of Christianity not native to Ethiopia, is also a nationalist. In a weird way, if the Tigray war would have been settled on Addis Ababa’s terms, the next conflict would have been between the ultranationalist Amhara and Eritrea. Ethiopia is a landlocked country and when Eritrea declared independence, it took with it Ethiopia’s only access to the Red Sea.

 

[Junaids]

When you say “Ethiopian” you have to be clear on who you mean by “Ethiopians.” The Tigrays had no qualms about Eritrea seceding, in fact, they facilitated it. The Amhara, which have traditionally ruled Ethiopia are ultranationalist and don’t recognize Eritrea’s independence. Abiy Ahmed, who is from the Oromo ethnic group and born a Muslim before converting to a strand of Christianity not native to Ethiopia, is also a nationalist. In a weird way, if the Tigray war would have been settled on Addis Ababa’s terms, the next conflict would have been between the ultranationalist Amhara and Eritrea. Ethiopia is a landlocked country and when Eritrea declared independence, it took with it Ethiopia’s only access to the Red Sea.

I’m enjoying your posts!

I would add that one positive has come from Ethiopia losing its coastline. It has invested in the port of Berbera in Somaliland, the wonderful unrecognised nearby country.

 

[chinaman00]

I’m enjoying your posts!

I would add that one positive has come from Ethiopia losing its coastline. It has invested in the port of Berbera in Somaliland, the wonderful unrecognised nearby country.

Thank you!

The Berbera economic corridor is actually the brainchild of the Emirates which invested in the port to deny Turkey –which has invested in Somalia, and which runs both Mogadishu Port and Airport through a venture – access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia being landlocked, as the largest economy in the region bought into the idea because it wants to lessen its dependency on Djibouti which is another Somali country (like Somalia and Somaliland) and which has proven especially cunning in how it manipulates international powers. For example, China, Japan, the US, Saudi Arabia and host of other countries maintain military bases in Djibouti. Hence, Djibouti has remained very stable.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Don’t let [MENTION=43583]KingKhanWC[/MENTION] read that word. You Western dupe you

It might be amusing to you because I assume you are ignorant of African history. We can then have a meaningful discussion.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/military-escalation-ethiopia-risks-undermining-progress-toward-peace-talks-us-2021-11-23/

The U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa said on Tuesday that "nascent progress" toward getting all parties to Ethiopia's conflict into negotiations on a ceasefire is at risk of being outpaced by an "alarming" increase in military operations.

Envoy Jeffrey Feltman briefed reporters in Washington after returning on Monday from Ethiopia, where he met Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed and discussed a potential diplomatic solution to the year-old conflict, which has killed thousands and displaced millions in Africa's second most populous nation.

Both Abiy and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the political party controlling the northern region of Tigray, seem to believe they are on the cusp of military victory, Feltman said, expressing concern that recent developments threaten Ethiopia’s overall stability and unity.

"There is some nascent progress in trying to get the parties to move from a military confrontation to a negotiating process. But what concerns us is this fragile progress risks being outpaced by the alarming developments on the ground that threaten Ethiopia's overall stability and unity," Feltman said.

Abiy's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda could not immediately be reached for comment.

War broke out in November 2020 between Ethiopian federal troops and forces loyal to the TPLF, the ruling party of Tigray. Thousands have been killed and the conflict has since spread into two neighboring regions in northern Ethiopia.

Feltman said both sides were talking to the United States about beginning a discreet peace process, and said there is overlap on what the two sides describe as essential to reduce tensions and a negotiated ceasefire.

Although he discussed a diplomatic solution during his meeting with Abiy on his most recent trip, the Ethiopian leader expressed confidence he would be able to achieve his goals militarily, Feltman said.

Also on Tuesday, Germany joined France and the United States in urging its citizens to leave Ethiopia immediately. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric also told reporters in New York that a few hundred family members of international staff would be relocated from Ethiopia.

"Staff will remain in Ethiopia to deliver on our mandates," he said.

 

[Napa]

It's just the old story of tribes intent on slaughtering each other, nothing different from what goes on in other parts of Africa and many parts of the world.

When you say “Ethiopian” you have to be clear on who you mean by “Ethiopians.” The Tigrays had no qualms about Eritrea seceding, in fact, they facilitated it. The Amhara, which have traditionally ruled Ethiopia are ultranationalist and don’t recognize Eritrea’s independence. Abiy Ahmed, who is from the Oromo ethnic group and born a Muslim before converting to a strand of Christianity not native to Ethiopia, is also a nationalist. In a weird way, if the Tigray war would have been settled on Addis Ababa’s terms, the next conflict would have been between the ultranationalist Amhara and Eritrea. Ethiopia is a landlocked country and when Eritrea declared independence, it took with it Ethiopia’s only access to the Red Sea.

Thank you!

The Berbera economic corridor is actually the brainchild of the Emirates which invested in the port to deny Turkey –which has invested in Somalia, and which runs both Mogadishu Port and Airport through a venture – access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia being landlocked, as the largest economy in the region bought into the idea because it wants to lessen its dependency on Djibouti which is another Somali country (like Somalia and Somaliland) and which has proven especially cunning in how it manipulates international powers. For example, China, Japan, the US, Saudi Arabia and host of other countries maintain military bases in Djibouti. Hence, Djibouti has remained very stable.

Makes one's head spin trying to keep track of the alliances and enmities. Is there anything about this situation that is not consistent with the model of tribes forming alliances with some and slaughtering others? A failure of being able to live in peace and develop economically.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-olympic-gold-medallist-haile-gebreselassie-join-war-ready-pay-ultimate-2021-11-24/

Ethiopian Olympic gold medallist and national hero Haile Gebreselassie pledged on Wednesday to join the fight against rebellious forces in his country, after the prime minister said he had gone to direct the war from the front lines.

The 48-year-old retired champion, who set 27 long distance running records, told Reuters that he felt compelled to join up because Ethiopia's existence was under threat.

Haile, his lithe, athletic frame dressed in business attire, said he believed sport was about "peace and love". But he defended his decision to join the fight against rebellious Tigrayan forces and their allies, who last month threatened to march on the capital Addis Ababa.

"What would you do when the existence of a country is at stake? You just put down everything. Alas, nothing will bind you. I am sorry!"

The year-long conflict has killed thousands of people, forced more than 2 million more from their homes and left 400,000 people in Tigray facing famine. It escalated sharply after the threat by rebellious forces to march on the capital, leading to international efforts to broke a ceasefire.

On Wednesday, state-affiliated media reported that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had gone to direct the war from the front lines. Haile cast the conflict as a battle in which the threat to Ethiopia was a threat to all of Africa.

"Ethiopia is a country that contributed a lot to Africa and the entire continent," he said. "Yes, it is an exemplary country. Kneeling Ethiopia is indirectly kneeling the rest. This is impossible."

In an interview in his office in the capital, where he runs more than a dozen companies engaged in hospitality, real estate, agriculture and education, Haile spoke of the role he was willing to play in the war.

"You expect me to say until death? Yes, that is the ultimate price in a war," he said. "There is no way that I can sit here due to fear because it will come to my door. It will come to my house. We wouldn't know when it comes. We wouldn't know who will do what."

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-us-concerned-over-turkeys-drone-sales-conflict-hit-ethiopia-2021-12-22/

U.S. authorities have taken issue with Turkey over its sales of armed drones to Ethiopia, where two sources familiar with the matter said there was mounting evidence the government had used the weapons against rebel fighters.

Washington has "profound humanitarian concerns" over the sales, which could contravene U.S. restrictions on arms to Addis Ababa, a senior Western official said.

The year-long war between Ethiopia's government and the leadership of the northern Tigray region, among Africa's bloodiest conflicts, has killed thousands of civilians and displaced millions.

A State Department spokesman said U.S. Horn of Africa envoy Jeffrey Feltman "raised reports of armed drone use in Ethiopia and the attendant risk of civilian harm" during a visit to Turkey last week.

A senior Turkish official said Washington conveyed its discomfort at a few meetings, while Ethiopia's military and government did not respond to detailed requests for comment.

Turkey, which is selling drones to several countries in Europe, Africa and Asia, has dismissed criticism that it plays a destabilising role in Africa and has said it is in touch with all sides in Ethiopia to urge negotiations.

Last week the United Nations agreed to set up an independent investigation into rights abuses in Ethiopia, a move strongly opposed by its government.

Tigrayan rebel forces said on Monday they were withdrawing from some northern regions after government advances and, in a letter to the UN, called for a no-fly zone for drones and other hostile aircraft over Tigray.

The U.S. State Department clamped down in May on exports of defence products for Ethiopia's armed forces.

In September, the White House authorised sanctions on those engaged, even indirectly, in policies that threaten stability, expand the crisis or disrupt humanitarian assistance there, though there has been no indication of any such imminent action against Turkey.

The U.S. Treasury, which has broad economic sanctions authority under that executive order, declined to comment on whether sanctions could apply to Turkey.

The senior Turkish official said the foreign ministry examined how the drone sales might impact U.S. foreign policy as part of 2022 budget planning.

"The United States has conveyed its discomfort with Turkey's drone sales ...but Turkey will continue to follow the policies it set in this area," the person told Reuters.

A second senior Turkish official, from the defence ministry, said Ankara had no intention of meddling in any country's domestic affairs.

Turkish defence exports to Ethiopia surged to almost $95 million in the first 11 months of 2021, from virtually nothing last year, according to Exporters' Assembly data.

Ethiopian government soldiers interviewed by Reuters near Gashena, a hillside town close to the war's front, said a recent government offensive succeeded following an influx of reinforcements and the use of drones and airstrikes to target Tigrayan positions.

A Reuters team spotted destroyed tanks and armoured anti-aircraft trucks there. A foreign military official based in Ethiopia said satellite imagery and other evidence gave "clear indications" that drones were being used, and estimated up to 20 were operating. It was unclear how many might be Turkish-made.

"Surveillance drones are having a greater impact ...and being very helpful," the person said, adding the guerrilla-warfare nature of the conflict made armed drones less useful.

Asked whether foreign countries had also supplied drone operators, the official said: "I know Turkish personnel were here at one point."

Turkish and Ethiopian officials have not publicly confirmed the drones sale, which Reuters first reported in October, and Turkey's foreign ministry did not respond to a request for further details.

It said last week that U.S. envoy Feltman and Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal had discussed developments in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan.

Ethiopia has also bought drones from the United Arab Emirates, which did not respond to a request for comment about possible U.S. concerns. Feltman was also scheduled to visit the UAE earlier this month.

Under President Tayyip Erdogan, Ankara has poured military equipment into Africa and the Middle East, including training of armed forces in Somalia, where it has a base.

The Turkish military used its Bayraktar TB2 drones last year with success in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, prompting interest from buyers globally in a market led by U.S., Chinese and Israeli manufacturers.

In October, a Turkish foreign ministry spokesman said Ethiopia was free to procure drones from anywhere. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said last week that engagement with Africa was based on mutual benefit.

NATO allies Washington and Ankara have strained ties over several issues including the Turkish purchase of Russian missile defences, and U.S. support for Kurdish fighters in northern Syria.

The State Department spokesperson said Feltman had underscored that "now is the time for all outside actors to press for negotiations and end the war" in Ethiopia.

The Western official, who requested anonymity, said Ankara had responded to U.S. concerns by saying it attaches humanitarian provisions to the Ethiopia deal and requires signed undertakings outlining how drones will be used.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-us-special-envoy-horn-africa-feltman-leave-post-2022-01-05/

U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman will step down from his post this month after more than nine months in the job, and David Satterfield, the outgoing U.S. ambassador to Turkey, will take up the role, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

Feltman, a veteran U.S. diplomat, assumed the post in April and quickly found himself in the middle of two major crises - Ethiopia's deepening civil war between forces loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the army of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, as well as a military coup in Sudan in October.

The news of his departure, which was not previously reported, came before he heads to Ethiopia on Thursday to meet with senior government officials about the peace talks as part of Washington's latest push to bring an end to the conflict.

Feltman, 62, said a "sense of duty" brought him out of "quasi-retirement" following more than 25 years as an American diplomat with postings to the United Nations, Middle East and North Africa.

Feltman took the role with an intention to serve for less than a year, a source familiar with the matter said. The source said Satterfield will provide continued U.S. focus, necessary because of ongoing instability and inter-connected challenges in the region.

The State Department declined to comment.

Ethiopian government spokesperson Legesse Tulu declined to comment because it was an internal U.S. government matter.

Feltman has faced strong headwinds to progress. The year-long war between Ethiopia's government and the leadership of the northern Tigray region, among Africa's bloodiest conflicts, has killed thousands of civilians, displaced millions and sparked famine.

Getachew Reda, the spokesperson of the ruling Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), was not immediately reachable for comment.

In Sudan, protests have continued for weeks including on Tuesday, two days after the resignation of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. He served from 2019 until the coup and was reinstated on Nov. 21 in an agreement with the military widely rejected by protesters.

Satterfield, a veteran of the U.S. Foreign Service with more than four decades of experience, has had a challenging post as U.S. ambassador in Turkey, where he navigated a strained bilateral relationship between the two NATO allies.

Prior to Ankara, he served in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Tunisia and Syria, among others, and worked twice as the top U.S. diplomat at the State Department for Middle East affairs in an acting capacity.

Turkey's increasing drone exports, most recently to Ethiopia, will be a common thread in Satterfield's old and new roles. Washington in December raised with Turkey its sales of armed drones to Ethiopia. Sources said there was mounting evidence the government used the weapons against rebel fighters.

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-releases-opposition-party-leader-2022-01-07/

Ethiopia has freed several opposition leaders from prison, the state broadcaster reported on Friday, as the government said it would begin dialogue with political opponents after 14 months of war when thousands of people have been arrested.

The move to free leaders from several ethnic groups is the most significant breakthrough since war broke out in the northern Tigray region, threatening the unity of Africa's second-most populous state.

Some leaders of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the party fighting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's central government, are among those freed.

"The key to lasting peace is dialogue," a statement from the government communications office said. "One of the moral obligations of a victor is mercy."

The state-run Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation's list of those being freed included two senior political leaders from Oromiya: Bekele Gerba, a senior leader of the Oromo Federalist Congress party, and Jawar Mohammed, founder of the Oromiya Media Network. Bekele Gerba's son Samuel Bekele later tweeted the two men were freed. The two men were charged in September 2020 with terrorism offences.

Oromiya is home to Ethiopia's biggest ethnic group and is Abiy's political heartland. Oromiya has a long-running insurgency rooted in grievances about perceived political marginalisation and rights abuses by the security services.

The leader of the Balderas for Genuine Democracy opposition party, Eskinder Nega, has been released, his party announced on Twitter. Eskinder, an ethnic Amhara journalist and blogger, was charged alongside Jawar, Bekele and more than a dozen other political activists.

Among those freed are Abay Weldu, a former president of Tigray, and Sebhat Nega, the founder of the TPLF.

Getachew Reda, spokesman for the TPLF, could not be reached immediately for comment.

Will Davison, senior Ethiopia analyst at the Brussels-based thinktank International Crisis Group, said the announcement was "the first signs in some time that the federal government is looking to take serious actions towards political reconciliation."

But he warned that the release of a few prisoners did not mean the resolution of the war.

After war broke out in November 2020, Abiy’s forces – supported by the Eritrean military - quickly captured the main cities. The government declared victory three weeks later.

Months of fighting and reports of grave rights abuses followed. The Ethiopian and Eritrean militaries withdrew from most of Tigray at the end of June, but the U.N. said a "de facto government blockade" prevented aid from entering. The government has denied blocking aid.

Saying they wanted to reopen supply lines for humanitarian aid, Tigrayan forces then pushed south and east into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara in July, leaving reports of rights abuses in their wake.

They announced an alliance with the insurgent Oromo Liberation Army in August, threatened the capital and tried to cut a key transport corridor. But the military – with support from newly bought drones – pushed Tigrayan forces back into Tigray in December.

Some sporadic fighting and airstrikes in parts of Tigray continue. No humanitarian aid has entered since Dec. 15; doctors in the region’s main hospital say it is a week from collapse.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Friday that he looks forward to improvement in humanitarian access to all areas affected by the conflict as he welcomed the release of opposition leaders. He called for parties to the conflict to build on what he said was a "significant confidence-building step."

 

[Last Monetarist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-army-planning-eliminate-tigrayan-forces-military-official-2022-01-22/

Ethiopia's military is planning to enter the Tigray regional capital of Mekelle and "eliminate" rebellious forces, a top military official said late on Friday amid diplomatic efforts to end conflict in the country's north.

The Horn of Africa country has been gripped by war for more than a year, with the federal military and its allies battling forces loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the political party that controls Tigray.

This week two top U.S. diplomats flew into Addis Ababa to push for a ceasefire, trying to build on tentative signs of a thaw in relations between warring parties, including the release of political prisoners.

In an interview with state-affiliated media outlet Fana broadcast late on Friday, Ethiopian Defence Forces (EDF) deputy army chief General Abebaw Tadesse said the country would not be at peace until the TPLF was eliminated.

"Tigray is part of Ethiopia and no force will stop us from entering. We will enter and we will eliminate the enemy. There shouldn't be any confusion about this," he said.

"The people of Ethiopia shouldn't think that it is over, it is not over. The main thing here is we have stopped because we have to prepare ourselves. This enemy is still there, and it has to be absolutely eliminated. We will not negotiate with them."

The TPLF's spokesperson, Getachew Reda, could not be reached for a comment on the military official's remarks.

In a tweet on Thursday, when part of Abebaw's interview was aired on Fana, Getachew said:"We are not losing sleep over Abebaw’s plan!"

Ethiopian government spokesperson Legesse Tulu and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Abebaw's remarks.

Separately, air force chief commander Yilma Merdasa denied targeting civilians in the conflict, saying his forces have the technology to avoid doing so.

"The claims by TPLF that our air force is targeting civilians is a lie," he said on Ethiopian Broadcast Corporation television.

TPLF spokesperson Getachew could not be reached to comment on this.

U.S. President Joe Biden, United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres and the U.N. human rights office (OHCHR) have raised concerns about air strikes.

The TPLF says Abiy wants to end the country's ethnically-based federal government system while Abiy says the TPLF is hungry to seize the national power it once held.

For months there has been an uneasy stalemate between the two sides, punctuated by sporadic fighting. TPLF forces control most of Tigray but are surrounded by hostile forces from neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara which are allied with the federal military.

The conflict, which broke out in November 2020, has displaced millions and triggered widespread hunger.

In recent months there have been multiple diplomatic and political efforts to end it, including pressure from the United States.