Who will win the US Presidential Election 2024?

[FearlessRoar]

The 2024 United States presidential election is set to be a significant one, scheduled for November 5, 2024. This marks the 60th quadrennial election in the country, and voters across the nation will decide on electors who will ultimately choose the next president and vice president.

The incumbent, President Joe Biden, initially ran for re-election as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, but following concerns about his age and health after the June 2024 debate, he decided to withdraw from the race in July. Vice President Kamala Harris has since stepped up as the Democratic nominee, making history alongside her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump is running for a second non-consecutive term after losing to Biden in 2020. His campaign has been marked by a mix of controversies, including legal issues and ongoing disputes over the 2020 election results. Trump has chosen Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate.

In addition to the major party candidates, we also have Cornel West, running as an independent, and third-party candidates Jill Stein of the Green Party and Chase Oliver from the Libertarian Party.

As the political landscape remains polarized and unpredictable, this election is shaping up to be highly consequential for the future of the country.

Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Candidates:

1. Kamala Harris (Democratic Party)
2. Donald Trump (Republican Party)
3. Cornel West (Independent)
4. Jill Stein (Green Party)
5. Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party)

 

[aboveandbeyond]

Who ever wins. Will be the Poodle of the Zionest Regime, no doubt about it.

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Who ever wins. Will be the Poodle of the Zionest Regime, no doubt about it.

Yep so unfortunate, but US have become a donkey not the day Democrats chose it as symbol but the day Woodrow Wilson established the Fed run by dodgy characters

 

[Cricket Warrior]

Harris lead over Trump dwindles to a single point, 44% to 43%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

Kamala Harris' lead over Donald Trump dwindled in the final stretch of the U.S. presidential contest, with the Democrat ahead by a single percentage point over the Republican, 44% to 43%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday.

The three-day poll, completed on Sunday, showed the race effectively tied ahead of the Nov. 5 election. The poll had a margin of error of about three percentage points in either direction.

While Harris has led Trump in every Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters since she entered the race in July, her lead has steadily shrunk since late September. A prior Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16-21 showed Harris, the current U.S. vice president, with a two-point lead over former President Trump.

The new poll, which surveyed 1,150 U.S. adults nationwide, including 975 registered voters, showed Trump with significant advantages over Harris on several of the issues voters consider most pressing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-lead-over-trump-dwindles-single-point-44-43-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-10-29/

 

[Kriketer]

Makes no difference when both parties and entire US Congress is leached like pets to the genocidal Zionist regime. Their billionaires Zionist masters are the one who pull the trigger on foreign policies and invasions. Atleast it's nice to see huge shift among younger American generation as they don't get fooled so hopefully they will have better candidates in the future without Zionist terrorist influence

 

[BouncerGuy]

I think Trump is gonna win this one. His popularity is increasing day by day

 

[The Bald Eagle]

How will $100mln bet on Trump vs. Harris affect election outcome?​

As America gears up for the presidential election, an unprecedented wave of legal betting has surged, with over $100 million wagered on the outcome of the race between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. This trend was spotlighted recently during Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden, where an advertisement for Kalshi, an online betting platform, urged attendees to “Bet $100 on Trump, Get $175.” This call to action reflects a significant shift in how Americans engage with politics, raising pressing questions about the implications of betting on electoral outcomes.

It is a call to action and marks a new frontier about how Americans interact with politics and raises very pressing questions about the implications of placing bets on electoral outcomes.

This surge in legal election betting comes in the wake of a federal appeals court having recently paved the way for KalshiEX LLC to establish an election prediction market. Kalshi's CEO, Tarek Mansour, calls the market a "mechanism for truth" and argues that it helps ordinary Americans hedge against political events being unpredictable. For now, the platform believes there's a 63% chance of Trump winning, as per its existing betting odds.

This may seem to be a very innovative manner for voters to participate in the democratic process, but critics, including Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Ore), have their concerns. According to Merkley, the legalization of election betting is a "huge mistake" that undermines the integrity of American democracy. As legal battles continue to surround Kalshi, questions remain over how this new form of betting might impact one of the most contentious presidential races in recent history.

Historical backgrounds

Wagering on the U.S. presidential election is not anything new. Betting markets sprouted early in the 20th century with quite an insightful understanding of who is going to win elections. "Betting markets, up until the time when science polling became widely available, were remarkably good," asserts Keith Romer, who formerly worked as a correspondent for NPR on gambling stories. Between 1884 and 1940, 11 of 15 U.S. presidential elections elected winners who were correctly projected by the betting markets. Scientific polling and stricter gaming laws made this practice retreat into obscurity.

Prediction markets have emerged again in recent years. Offshore prediction market Polymarket has so far taken over $2.5 billion in bets, and a significant portion of that amount is reportedly linked to the chances of Trump winning. Critics have raised concerns over the integrity of such markets, arguing that they inflate volumes artificially.

Legitimising election bets

Kalshi will aim to establish a legal playing field for such bets and position itself as the preferable alternative compared to the traditional polling for politics. Mansour contends that Kalshi democratizes access to political risk management by opening participation avenues for everyday Americans since their financial instruments are also accessible to the rich investors.

Source: Samaa News

 

[Kianig89]

Nawaz Sharif also sitting there ready to shine boots of the winner.

 

[ChennaiFan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1852033622494105832

I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos.

It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America. They have been a disaster from Israel to Ukraine to our own Southern Border, but we will Make America Strong Again and bring back Peace through Strength!

We will also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.

Kamala Harris will destroy your small businesses with more regulations and higher taxes. By contrast, I cut taxes, cut regulations, unleashed American energy, and built the greatest economy in history. We will do it again, bigger and better than ever before—and we will Make America Great Again.

Also, Happy Diwali to All. I hope the Festival of Lights leads to the Victory of Good over Evil!

 

[RexRex]

@Stewie What's the vibe you getting .. who is winning there ?

 

[Stewie]

@Stewie What's the vibe you getting .. who is winning there ?

Too close to call but I think Trump is leading

 

[Cricket Warrior]

Kamala Harris struggles to secure men's support in labor unions

With the U.S. election days away, Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to secure the support of male volunteers in some labor unions whose phone calls and house visits are needed to get Democratic supporters out to vote, senior labor officials said.

Most unions have long supported Democratic candidates, and both Harris and President Joe Biden have backed unions in contract negotiations and championed workers' rights.

But Republican candidate Donald Trump, who was president from 2017-2021, has made inroads with union workers in recent years and any drop in support for Harris could be a decisive factor in the neck-and-neck race.

If elected, Harris would make U.S. history as the first female and second Black president, and sexism and racism have been seen as a hurdle to her winning.

Liz Shuler, president of the 12.5 million-member AFL-CIO, said enthusiasm for Harris is strong overall but sexism is likely undermining support for her in some unions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-struggles-secure-mens-support-labor-unions-2024-10-31/

 

[Stewie]

Nawaz Sharif also sitting there ready to shine boots of the winner.

Sushi koi ghaas nahi daalne wala

 

[Stewie]

I think Trump is gonna win this one. His popularity is increasing day by day

Not day by day. But for sure it’s steady. The dems support has been very strange bouncing all over the place and fizzling out at the wrong time. She failed to distance herself from the baba Biden and that’s going to kill her chances. She did get a very good start after Biden baba dropped out but I feel he dropped out too late for her to mount a proper challenge.

They also disenfranchised the Muslims thanks to their policies in Gaza. The swing counties of swing Pennsylvania have a lot of Muslims. Will be interesting to see how the results turn out there.

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Where things stand in the race: Key things to know as Harris and Trump enter final full day of campaigning​

By almost every measure, the way former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have closed their campaigns for the White House could not present more of a contrast as they make final appeals to voters in a race that remains on a razor’s edge heading into Election Day.

The last full day of campaigning also speaks to the contrasting approaches for the two candidates, with Harris focused on a single state that could hold the key to her pathway to victory while Trump visits three states as he eyes multiple avenues that could lead him back to the White House.

Contrasting closing messages

In one of his final pitches to Pennsylvania voters, Trump promoted unfounded claims about Democrats cheating in the 2024 election, asserted that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after his 2020 defeat and suggested he would not mind if a gunman were to “shoot through the fake news” to get to him and lashed out at an Iowa poll showing him in a close race in a state he won twice. The overall message and mood from Trump highlights how he has embraced dark rhetoric, vulgar attacks and baseless conspiracies as cornerstones of closing argument instead of drawing a contrast with his Democratic rival on policy areas where polls still show him with advantages among voters.

By contrast, the vice president avoided any mention of Trump in her final pitch to Michigan voters on Sunday, instead anchoring her message around a call to “turn the page on a decade of politics driven by fear and division.” The emphasis on “a new way forward” offered a clear contrast by Harris without amplifying her more direct appeal in recent days of presenting the election as a choice between a president who will focus on a “to-do list” for the American people and another who would be guided by an “enemies list.”

Dueling events on the trail

Harris is set to hold five events across Pennsylvania on Monday, beginning with a canvass kickoff in Scranton. She will follow that with stops in Reading, Allentown and Pittsburgh before closing out the campaign with a rally in Philadelphia, where she will be joined by Oprah Winfrey and Lady Gaga, among other celebrities, musicians and elected officials.

Trump begins his day with a rally in North Carolina — the state that gave him his narrowest win in 2020 and one his Democratic rival is eager to flip. It marks the third consecutive day the former president is spending in the Tar Heel State, one that is crucial to his electoral map. From there, Trump travels to Pennsylvania for a pair of events in in Reading and Pittsburgh.

The dueling events in Pittsburgh and Reading — the Pennsylvania city with the highest percentage of Latino residents — speak to the importance of that voting bloc in the commonwealth — and how the state is poised to play a decisive role in determining which candidate emerges as the country’s next president.

The GOP nominee will hold his final rally of the 2024 campaign the way he ended his previous two presidential runs — in Grand Rapids, Michigan — a nod to Trump’s superstitious tendencies. It is worth noting that Harris also is closing out her 2024 run in the same city she held her final rally during the 2020 campaign as Joe Biden’s running mate.

Source: CNN

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Let's see whose pick comes right tomorrow.

I say it would be Trump unless Pakistan like election does not occur there

 

[Red-Indian]

@Stewie What's the vibe you getting .. who is winning there ?

I've been following a bunch of prediction models and all of them are almost precisely 50-50. The closest election in decades!

My personal feeling is that there's a little bit of last minute swing back to Kamala with some of the few remaining undecideds making up their mind. The Iowa Selzer poll was particularly interesting.

Anyway, this is my personal prediction



Kamala just barely makes it to 270

 

[The Bald Eagle]

When is the 2024 presidential election result expected?

The first polls close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening and the last at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday.

In some presidential races the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning.

This time, the knife-edge race in many states could mean media outlets wait longer before projecting who has won.

Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks.

Narrow victories could also mean recounts.

In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, a recount would be required if there’s a half-percentage-point difference between the votes cast for the winner and loser. In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points.

Legal challenges are also possible. More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed by Republicans, including challenges to voter eligibility and voter roll management.

Other scenarios that could cause delays include any election-related disorder, particularly at polling locations.

On the other hand, vote-counting has sped up in some areas, including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic.

When have previous presidential election results been announced?
In the 2020 election, US TV networks did not declare Joe Biden the winner until four days after election day, when the result in Pennsylvania became clearer.

In other recent elections, voters have had a much shorter wait.

In 2016, Trump was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) a few hours after polls closed.

In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight the same evening of election day.

However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception. The race was not decided for five weeks, when the US Supreme Court voted to end Florida's recount. That kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House

US election 2024 results: When will we know who won?

Once polls close on Tuesday, a winner may not be projected for several hours, days or even weeks.

www.bbc.com

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Kamala Harris Or Donald Trump? Nostradamus Of US Polls Tells NDTV His Pick​

Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Ahead of the highly-anticipated 2024 US Presidential Elections, Allan Lichtman - historian, author, and a rare political forecaster with a track record of poll predictions - shared his insights on NDTV.

Mr Lichtman dismissed the relevance of most polling data, saying that they are as arbitrary as "superstition" in the words of the popular philosopher David Hume.

"Consign them (opinion polls) to the flames," Mr Lichtman told NDTV. "Yes, we are going to have Kamala Harris, a new path-breaking president, the first woman president and the first president of mixed African and Asian descent. It is kind of foreshadowing where America is going. We are rapidly becoming a majority-minority country old white guys like me, we are on the decline," Mr Lichtman said.

Mr Lichtman's prediction model focuses on historical patterns, dismissing the idea that polls, campaign strategies, or even election demographics alone can determine outcomes. In 1981, he developed the 13 "Keys to the White House" system, identifying that governance, not campaign tactics, decides the US elections. His model has correctly forecasted the winner of every election since 1984, including some when his conclusions contradicted popular sentiment.

"They (opinion polls) have no predictive value. And they are all well within the margin of error. In 2016. When I predicted Donald Trump which did not make me very popular in the 90 per cent democratic Washington DC, where I teach at American University. All of the polls were going in the other direction. In fact, the most eminent compiler of polls, the Princeton University Consortium, gave Hillary Clinton a 99 per cent chance of winning."

While demographics do not dictate his model's predictions, Mr Lichtman did acknowledge the demographic trends against which Republicans are increasingly struggling. According to Mr Lichtman, Republicans' efforts to limit minority votes through voter suppression tactics reflect a party trying to secure a dwindling base in the face of these shifts.

"I don't base my prediction on voter demographics. You cannot accurately predict an election by trying to break it down into individual voter groups. I use the teacup analogy. You pour sugar into it. You learn nothing by trying to follow the individual sugar molecules, but you can learn a lot from simple, integral parameters like sweetness and density. And that is what the keys are all about," Mr Lichtman told NDTV.

Despite acknowledging the possibility of error, Mr Lichtman said his predictions are definitive, and not hedged by probabilities. Mr Lichtman has been right every election since Ronald Reagan, even going back retrospectively to the 1860 election that brought Abraham Lincoln to power.

"Could I be wrong? Of course, I am a human being. Any human being can be wrong. It's always possible," he said.

When asked if his model could be applied to elections in India, Mr Lichtman said that while the methodology could inspire similar predictive frameworks, it cannot be directly transplanted.

"I love India. I have been there lecturing about the keys to the White House, and I have been asked whether the keys could apply to Indian elections. And my answer is you cannot just export the keys. But someone who knows a lot about Indian history and politics could use the methodology and insights of the keys to become the Alan Lichtman o
f India," he said.

Source: NDTV

 

[bones]

Bookies have Trump as favourite and it's not as close as all the polls and news suggests.

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Bookies have Trump as favourite and it's not as close as all the polls and news suggests.

Yep spot on,...seems like they have been inspired the soul of Godi media