Though you have a fair point, 20 years ago, India was just starting the whole decentralisation program.
Money is flowing in now. By 2038 WC, I expect India to be in the third round and in the contention for WC spot
1. No. of spots for Asia now become 8
2. India is currently ranked 12th in Asia, though thats because we have been in good form and have played some weaker teams. We are more like 16th in reality.
3. But there is an improvement curve in terms on infrastructure and football becoming a viable career for upcoming generations. I would expect to be ranked 5th-10th in the next 20 years in Asia.
4. That would translate to making it to the final round of asian qualification for WC, and hopefully a spot in the WC.
I wonder how often this was repeated 20 years ago. And 20 years prior to that.
Did a little bit more research on the rankings and come to the following conclusion (yes, I have way too much time!)
- India, is ranked 14th in Asia, but is more like 18th. There are some teams better than India that are ranked lower. That is because the lower rankings are volatile as a 2-3 wins will give you some solid points. So, India is about 18th best in Asia.
Current WC Qualifiers
- 4.5 spots for Asia. Lets call it 4 spots for Asia.
- First round matches between teams ranked 35-48 over a home and away leg. The winner goes to the second. Under current rankings, India qualifies directly for 2nd round
- 2nd round - 40 teams are divided into 8 groups of 5. The winner of each group (8) + 4 runners up (4) make it to the third round (Total 12). India did not make it to final round for 2018 WC.
- 3rd round - 12 teams are divided into 2 groups of 6, play home and away league, and the top 2 teams of each group qualify.
As things stand, I dont expect India to make it to the third round for 2022 (qualitfication starts in 2019)
From 2026 onwards WC qualifiers
- Asia gets 8 spots
- Even if the format remains as it is now, i.e 12 teams in the final round, and 8 of which make it, the question is can India make it to the top 12?
Rate of increase in sponsorship and investment in Football in India is one of the highest in Asia (nearly 54% increase in 2017, expected to be a 100% increase in 2018). There is definitely growth in Asia in general, but India is outdoing most countries.
The question is whether India can sustain this growth over the next 10-15 years, and whether this investment in football will reap rewards. All possible indicators, seem to say that investment in the sports, leads to better results in the long run. So, in 20 years we might not be defo in WC, but should at least get into the last 12 and get challenge for a WC spot till the end.