Will South Africa choke in their chase of a 282-run target to win the World Test Championship 2023/25 final against Australia?

[BouncerGuy]

Australia has set up a challenging target of 282 for South Africa in the WTC final, after bowling them out for 138 in the first inning.

With the pitch offering movement and Australia’s lethal pace attack led by Pat Cummins (6/28 in the first innings), the Proteas face a stern test. History isn’t on their side—only four 200+ chases have succeeded at Lord’s, and South Africa’s batting collapsed in the 1st inning of this match.

The "choke" narrative looms large—South Africa has faltered in ICC knockouts before, and their shaky middle order could struggle under pressure. However, if their top order fires, they have the talent to pull off a historic chase. Will this be another heartbreak, or can they finally overcome their finals curse?

 

[amvbfm]

Need to go aggressively at the target. A repeat of their first innings approach against this Australian bowling attack will get them nowhere given the inexperience of the current lineup and the potency of the Aussie attack. The opening partnership and Rickleton in particular will be the key imo. Mulder at 3 and Temba at 4 are momentum killers and an early wicket or two for the Aussies will massively dent SA hopes.

 

[sweep_shot]

Aussies should win. Maybe even a big win.

 

[RidiculousMan]

Mind says No. But I really want South Africa to win something for once.

 

[amvbfm]

Australia has set up a challenging target of 282 for South Africa in the WTC final, after bowling them out for 138 in the first inning.

With the pitch offering movement and Australia’s lethal pace attack led by Pat Cummins (6/28 in the first innings), the Proteas face a stern test. History isn’t on their side—only four 200+ chases have succeeded at Lord’s, and South Africa’s batting collapsed in the 1st inning of this match.

The "choke" narrative looms large—South Africa has faltered in ICC knockouts before, and their shaky middle order could struggle under pressure. However, if their top order fires, they have the talent to pull off a historic chase. Will this be another heartbreak, or can they finally overcome their finals curse?

And i will not call this a choke unless SA are 200/2 and lose the game from there. They have competed well but the Aussies are just a superior all round team. A choke would be when you lose from a winning position or to an inferior team.

 

[Ali Active]

Sa wont choke but will lose this match
as it is good target they kinda choked though in starc hazlewood partnership

 

[sweep_shot]

Need to go aggressively at the target. A repeat of their first innings approach against this Australian bowling attack will get them nowhere given the inexperience of the current lineup and the potency of the Aussie attack. The opening partnership and Rickleton in particular will be the key imo. Mulder at 3 and Temba at 4 are momentum killers and an early wicket or two for the Aussies will massively dent SA hopes.

Mulder is not their usual #3. He is a floater.

 

[amvbfm]

Mulder is not their usual #3. He is a floater.

Yes, but he is likely to play there in this innings as well unless Temba comes in at 3 which won't be much of a difference considering how he bats.

 

[Mamoon]

Choke? How can you choke when your chances of winning are close to nil. It will be a hell or an effort if South Africa get close.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

282 will be the 2nd or 3rd highest chase at Lord's? Not a choke .

 

[The Bald Eagle]

SA have started confidently, if they held their nerves then they still have a decent chance

 

[Hellion]

SA have started confidently, if they held their nerves then they still have a decent chance

As prescient as ever.

 

[The Bald Eagle]

As prescient as ever.

Lol won't you answer why you support saffers now....

 

[Hellion]

Lol won't you answer why you support saffers now....

Did I say I support Saffers ?

Your movies and trailers on the other hand seem to change faster than English weather

 

[The Bald Eagle]

Did I say I support Saffers ?

Your movies and trailers on the other hand seem to change faster than English weather

Lol still scared...it's just a game...nothing else

 

[Hellion]

Lol still scared...it's just a game...nothing else

Scared of what though ? Happy whoever wins.

 

[shaz619]

This wouldn’t be competitive if SA had QDK.

Line-up is literally a 2 man army with the bat.

 

[Ball Blazer]

Tea Break – SA vs AUS

Current Batting:

• Australia: 212 & 207
• South Africa: 138 & 94/2* in 24 overs
• Target: 282
• Runs Needed: 188

Batting:​

• Aiden Markram: 49* (66)
• Temba Bavuma: 11* (20)

 

[Hellion]

Limping Bavuma has already outscored tulla Travis Head.

 

[sweep_shot]

SA - 130/2.

They are going well. Can they pull it off?

 

[The Bald Eagle]

It's all over for Australia now, only a miracle or choking masterclass can rescue them now. History is going to be erected soon

 

[SpiritOf1903]

Markram with an ATG knock here. Average record. Much better than that

 

[Hellion]

If Saffers win this, then PAK are the biggest chokers going around currently

 

[Rana]

Mad respect Aiden

The sauce was cooking for sure!!

 

[The Bald Eagle]

If Saffers win this, then PAK are the biggest chokers going around currently

Lol may be you know what's coming next

 

[Hellion]

Lol may be you know what's coming next

Yes, another choke in 2026

 

[Hyder]

They should just finish it off. Bavuma to score winning runs.

They were this close in t20wc too.

 

[Ball Blazer]

South Africa win their first-ever ICC trophy since 1998 and second overall to get rid of chokers' tag.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933853425046802562

 

[Devadwal]

Aussies should win. Maybe even a big win.

 

[Major]

If Saffers win this, then PAK are the biggest chokers going around currently

How can pakistan be chokers when they have never been favourites and still won like the champions trophy of 2017.

Indians are one lot

 

[Hellion]

How can pakistan be chokers when they have never been favourites and still won like the champions trophy of 2017.

Indians are one lot

Match was USA was the biggest choke of this millenium.

And now don't say you weren't favourites against USA

 

[RedwoodOriginal]

For the doubters on this forum, and outside of it.

 

[RedwoodOriginal]

South Africa have been consistently winning test matches since the start of the cycle yet people kept downplaying their wins because they were against teams like West Indies, Sri Lanka, Pakistan. They didn't get enough attention because they weren't playing 5-match test series against India, Australia, England. When they reached the final, all the discourse was centered around, 'oh they beat weak teams to qualify'...as if it's their fault that they got a more favorable away schedule. Well, who's laughing now?

Hope the detractors have learned a valuable lesson.

 

[BouncerGuy]

Match was USA was the biggest choke of this millenium.

And now don't say you weren't favourites against USA

Choke in group stage does not matter. The real choke is playing whole tournament like a boss and then losing at knockout stage when it matters the most. Who is the boss in this kind of choke now???

SOuth africa and india+kiwis.

 

[Sachin fan]

How can pakistan be chokers when they have never been favourites and still won like the champions trophy of 2017.

Indians are one lot

They choke against minnows when on the verge of qualification. USA, zimbabwe, etc.

Which is worse IMO.

 

[Sachin fan]

Choke in group stage does not matter. The real choke is playing whole tournament like a boss and then losing at knockout stage when it matters the most. Who is the boss in this kind of choke now???

SOuth africa and india+kiwis.

Bigger teams have opportunities to choke against big teams and in finals.


Lesser teams choke earlier against minnows and never reach later stages.


I would say choking against Zimbabwe and USA when on the verge of qualification 100% counts as choking. Bowling wides under pressure of super over is the definition of choking in big moments.

 

[mominsaigol]

South Africa have been consistently winning test matches since the start of the cycle yet people kept downplaying their wins because they were against teams like West Indies, Sri Lanka, Pakistan. They didn't get enough attention because they weren't playing 5-match test series against India, Australia, England. When they reached the final, all the discourse was centered around, 'oh they beat weak teams to qualify'...as if it's their fault that they got a more favorable away schedule. Well, who's laughing now?

Hope the detractors have learned a valuable lesson.

Happy to be proven wrong

 

[mominsaigol]

They choke against minnows when on the verge of qualification. USA, zimbabwe, etc.

Which is worse IMO.

The Zimbabwe one doesnt even make sense considering Pakistan qualified for the finals .

The USA one wasnt a choke, 2024 Pakistan was just a rubbish unit. Go and revisit the old threads. Me, @Rana and many others predicted a loss to USA as soon as the schedule was announced.

You cant choke if you're genuinely a weaker side. If anything it was a choke from USA leading to SO.

NZ and SA are the biggest chokers in world cricket. One win in wtc from nz and one from sa doesnt change anything nor does it wipe out their past history lol.