ahmedwaqas92
ODI Debutant
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Ahmed Shehzad [1st Jan 2013 – 31st Dec 2014] ODI innings by innings breakdown and batting analysis
This thread title and the premise behind such an inquiry came from a light discussion me and a few of my friends were having today morning (30.01.2017) on a prominent social media platform.
We were generically discussing the direction and the players that would necessarily take Pakistan forward (in ODIs) when one of the blokes dropped in the name of Mr. Ahmad Shehzad, stating that we should back the lad and involve him in our plans since he has the tools to succeed in the long run. When asked specifically for any empirical data that backs these claims I was gestured to delve into the years 2013 and 2014; and I quote “Shehzad’s Best Years Statistically”.
Now whoever has been following me on Pakpassion and on other platforms know that I have some extremely strong reservations of Mr. Shehzad coming back into the team and as such when the said player was brought into the discussion I rebuffed the claim stating; with obvious conviction, that the player is proven non-performer and should be kept away from the team.
However, it clicked me that maybe, my analysis and other established notions on Shehzad could be a culmination of bad memories and other off field issues. So to clear the misconception and to hypothetically myth bust these ‘bad thoughts’ I set out to see how exactly; Mr. Ahmad Shehzad has fared (Purely on Numbers) between the best batting years of his international career.
YEAR 2013
The above two images show us Ahmad Shehzad’s yearly average, strike rate and his dot ball percentage for the year 2013. In these twelve months, Shehzad faced South Africa and Sri Lanka in the UAE while he had an additional 3 away series with West Indies, Zimbabwe and the Saffers (Again).
Since he was the opener in all of the series, we assume that Shehzad had the most amount of time to construct an innings while the above Innings by Innings schematic does tell us a lot about how Shehzad, starting from the tour of the West Indies changed his approach and had an upward trend for runs made per series but an everlasting problem of a low strike rate and a huge percentage of dot balls.
All the cumulative numbers adding up from the averages and metrics of each series clearly identify that Ahmad Shehzad even ‘during his golden run’ had a serious cricketing deficiency of rotating the strike and also striking at a decent rate throughout his innings.
The only series that is subject to not following such a trend is the one that was played against Sri Lanka in the U.A.E. by the end of the year. In this particular series Shehzad had an extremely healthy (relative to his previous numbers) SR of 82.88 and a comparatively low dot ball percentage of (56.35) as well. To go along with such improvements was his 55+ average for the series but if we put these numbers into perspective for the entire scheme of things then these decentish figures are overshadowed by Hafeez’s series average of near 150 odd and 90+ SR, which might bitterly indicate that the batting surfaces in all five matches were true to their nature and massively friendly towards the subcontinent style of modern ODI cricket.
Apart from preceding series; all throughout 2013, Shehzad faced a lot of difficulties in getting into any sort of batting rhythm. His away scores in WI and ZIM had his series averages suffering into the 20s, while his dot ball percentage hovered around 70 percent for four distinct tours. This meant that Shehzad was one of the prime candidates in getting bogged down extremely easily during a run chase or whenever Pakistan was asked to set a target.
It is also noteworthy, and ridiculously fascinating that the PCB kept on playing Shehzad even though it was substantially clear that modern ODI cricket was not his cup of tea and he had severe deficiencies to overcome before being allowed to wield an international willow but alas he played in every single game leading up to the World Cup and beyond.
Another extremely interesting factor to note is Shehzad’s incrementing batting average up until the end of the year when Pakistan faced off against the Sri Lanka in the U.A.E. The Averages, Strike Rate and Dot Ball % metric shows that even though his strike rotation and ability to score runs per 100 balls disappointingly remained the same, his batting average increased on a per series basis.
This attribute can be termed to the fact that the entire team at this point in time had engulfed itself into the Misbah philosophy of playing cricket with a safety first approach. Misbah’s tactics of safeguarding the full quota of 50 overs trickled onto the Pakistani openers as Shehzad can be seen in occupying the crease more and more, with each passing series – blatantly putting a price on his wicket.
The distressing aspect in such an approach is that if any of the said batsman has a very large Dot ball % then this strategy would be counterproductive on batting friendly tracks and modern ODI lineups would make merry of the fact that the opposition batsmen, in this case Pakistanis, sit back and don’t attack as much as they might anticipate from an aggressive unit.
YEAR 2014
In the year 2014 Ahmad Shehzad featured in 4 distinct series – 1 multinational tournament (Asia Cup) and 3 bilateral series against Sri Lanka (Away), Australia (U.A.E.) and New Zealand (U.A.E.). His batting numbers were more or less identical to how he fared in 2013 with no reduction in dot ball Percentage but a 3 point loss to his overall strike rate from the preceding year. His cumulative numbers were:
As stated above, his batting averages, strike rates and dot ball percentages are near identical in both 2013 and 2014 so in order to make it even more uniform I decided to have a trend analysis of how he did across both the years.
The method used was to periodically plot scatter points for all the 9 series Shehzad played in these two years and made a trend comparison to know better on where he stood as a player and what can we expect from him hypothetically, if he’s selected and allowed to come back.
Here are his Trends.
Cumulative Numbers
* Cumulative Series Averages and Other Metrics [2013-2014]
Batting Average
Strike Rate
Dot Ball %
Although these graphical representations show exactly the same numbers we viewed in tabulated form earlier, they convey a distinct aspect of his game that most people conveniently miss – Shehzad’s Inconsistency to regularly muster his average each game.
The graphs clearly display that Shehzad has severe issues when it comes to batting consistency and these are reflected by the constant that is embedded in each equation for the line of best fit.
One can also clearly see that the scatter points are way off from the line of best fit and are reminiscent of the fact that Shehzad over the course of his most statistically beneficial 2 years did not have enough consistency to be counted as a premier batsman.
So where does Shehzad stand right now? Many folks and media personnel are calling for his return to the ODI side on the basis that he might be a thriving partner to someone like a Sharjeel but a guy who averages 38ish with a SR of 60 odd and a Dot Ball percentage of near 60-65 would genuinely be a downgrade to what Pakistan are specifically looking for in the shorter formats of the game – and that too as an opening batsman.
People often claim that he has been performing in the domestics recently and deserves a go for his recent string of scores but how conveniently these same people forget the likes of Fawad Alam and other domestic batsmen who have been for years now piling on the runs without much reward or a chance to showcase their abilities, on a consistent basis, at the international level.
The latter being excused, almost every time, with a simple detraction that domestic bowlers and conditions are not ‘testing enough’ and hence the mountain of scores hardly matter but with the same logic Ahmad Shehzad’s recent exploits should be taken with a grain of salt since according to many who refute players like Fawad and other regular performers, the scores in domestics hardly matter.
Also it is worthy to note that Shehzad’s ‘Golden Run’ in ODIs is embarrassingly mediocre-ish when it comes to modern ODI strike rates and strike rotation but we will be giving Ahmad the benefit of the doubt assuming that he has improved in the last 2 odd years and is now a better and more equipped batsman than what he was before.
For this very reason we will adjourn a hypothetical increment of 20 percent to his overall numbers that we took earlier from [1st Jan 2013 – 31st Dec 2014]. Now anyone who might have taken any college courses in Data Analysis, Time Series, Progression or even Calculus III would most certainly know that an increase of 20 odd percent to any live data trend is almost God like divine level progression – but for Ahmad Shehzad we will emphatically assume that this has happened since Dec 2014 up until now because #FansAreInHeart
What If Scenario
On the left hand side of the tabulated results are the original numbers that Ahmad Shehzad made during the season of Jan 2013 – Dec 2014. While on the right hand side are the hypothetical numbers he could potentially end up getting (upon being selected) if he has somehow managed to raise his game by 20 percent on each factor associated with his batting.
To give identical changes I incremented the averages and strike rates by 1.2 while simultaneously reducing the Dot Ball % by 0.8. The uniformity for these chances reflected in a 20% net positive to all his batting credentials and the yellow highlighted line at the end is a cumulative figure for the said attributes.
If all goes well for Ahmad Shehzad, then upon getting picked again he would be averaging in the mid-40s with a SR of near 75 and a Dot Ball % of 53-ish granted he has raised his game by 20 percent on the whole.
The funny question now remains – do we need a batsman in the team that strikes at 75 balls per 100 and plays out more than 50 percent of dot balls in his entire innings? Do we need someone who if ends up occupying the crease for 20 overs may let go 60+ odd deliveries without scoring or rotating the strike? And mind you this is after the hypothetical increase in average, strike rate and a significant reduction in dot ball percentage.
The yellow highlighted stats are near to what Azhar Ali was averaging when he first burst onto the scenes after the World Cup but since his approach, batting style and the method to progress an innings was outdated he has now become a burden on the team with a slump in form. Shehzad is a player who we can agree is in the same mold as how Azhar Ali bats during any limited overs match hence selecting a like for like player could severely lead to future problems when Shehzad himself suffers a bad patch or low form in general.
This thread title and the premise behind such an inquiry came from a light discussion me and a few of my friends were having today morning (30.01.2017) on a prominent social media platform.
We were generically discussing the direction and the players that would necessarily take Pakistan forward (in ODIs) when one of the blokes dropped in the name of Mr. Ahmad Shehzad, stating that we should back the lad and involve him in our plans since he has the tools to succeed in the long run. When asked specifically for any empirical data that backs these claims I was gestured to delve into the years 2013 and 2014; and I quote “Shehzad’s Best Years Statistically”.
Now whoever has been following me on Pakpassion and on other platforms know that I have some extremely strong reservations of Mr. Shehzad coming back into the team and as such when the said player was brought into the discussion I rebuffed the claim stating; with obvious conviction, that the player is proven non-performer and should be kept away from the team.
However, it clicked me that maybe, my analysis and other established notions on Shehzad could be a culmination of bad memories and other off field issues. So to clear the misconception and to hypothetically myth bust these ‘bad thoughts’ I set out to see how exactly; Mr. Ahmad Shehzad has fared (Purely on Numbers) between the best batting years of his international career.
YEAR 2013
The above two images show us Ahmad Shehzad’s yearly average, strike rate and his dot ball percentage for the year 2013. In these twelve months, Shehzad faced South Africa and Sri Lanka in the UAE while he had an additional 3 away series with West Indies, Zimbabwe and the Saffers (Again).
Since he was the opener in all of the series, we assume that Shehzad had the most amount of time to construct an innings while the above Innings by Innings schematic does tell us a lot about how Shehzad, starting from the tour of the West Indies changed his approach and had an upward trend for runs made per series but an everlasting problem of a low strike rate and a huge percentage of dot balls.
Code:
Series | Avg | SR | DB% | Venue
West Indies | 23.80 | 47.62 | 73.36 | West Indies
Zimbabwe | 27.66 | 56.71 | 68.93 | Zimbabwe
South Africa | 38.60 | 70.57 | 63.78 | U.A.E.
South Africa | 45.67 | 47.02 | 72.26 | South Africa
Sri Lanka | 55.40 | 82.88 | 56.35 | U.A.E.
Cumulative | 38.23 | 63.55 | 66.94 |All the cumulative numbers adding up from the averages and metrics of each series clearly identify that Ahmad Shehzad even ‘during his golden run’ had a serious cricketing deficiency of rotating the strike and also striking at a decent rate throughout his innings.
The only series that is subject to not following such a trend is the one that was played against Sri Lanka in the U.A.E. by the end of the year. In this particular series Shehzad had an extremely healthy (relative to his previous numbers) SR of 82.88 and a comparatively low dot ball percentage of (56.35) as well. To go along with such improvements was his 55+ average for the series but if we put these numbers into perspective for the entire scheme of things then these decentish figures are overshadowed by Hafeez’s series average of near 150 odd and 90+ SR, which might bitterly indicate that the batting surfaces in all five matches were true to their nature and massively friendly towards the subcontinent style of modern ODI cricket.
Apart from preceding series; all throughout 2013, Shehzad faced a lot of difficulties in getting into any sort of batting rhythm. His away scores in WI and ZIM had his series averages suffering into the 20s, while his dot ball percentage hovered around 70 percent for four distinct tours. This meant that Shehzad was one of the prime candidates in getting bogged down extremely easily during a run chase or whenever Pakistan was asked to set a target.
It is also noteworthy, and ridiculously fascinating that the PCB kept on playing Shehzad even though it was substantially clear that modern ODI cricket was not his cup of tea and he had severe deficiencies to overcome before being allowed to wield an international willow but alas he played in every single game leading up to the World Cup and beyond.
Another extremely interesting factor to note is Shehzad’s incrementing batting average up until the end of the year when Pakistan faced off against the Sri Lanka in the U.A.E. The Averages, Strike Rate and Dot Ball % metric shows that even though his strike rotation and ability to score runs per 100 balls disappointingly remained the same, his batting average increased on a per series basis.
This attribute can be termed to the fact that the entire team at this point in time had engulfed itself into the Misbah philosophy of playing cricket with a safety first approach. Misbah’s tactics of safeguarding the full quota of 50 overs trickled onto the Pakistani openers as Shehzad can be seen in occupying the crease more and more, with each passing series – blatantly putting a price on his wicket.
The distressing aspect in such an approach is that if any of the said batsman has a very large Dot ball % then this strategy would be counterproductive on batting friendly tracks and modern ODI lineups would make merry of the fact that the opposition batsmen, in this case Pakistanis, sit back and don’t attack as much as they might anticipate from an aggressive unit.
YEAR 2014
In the year 2014 Ahmad Shehzad featured in 4 distinct series – 1 multinational tournament (Asia Cup) and 3 bilateral series against Sri Lanka (Away), Australia (U.A.E.) and New Zealand (U.A.E.). His batting numbers were more or less identical to how he fared in 2013 with no reduction in dot ball Percentage but a 3 point loss to his overall strike rate from the preceding year. His cumulative numbers were:
Code:
Series | Avg | SR | DB% | Venue
Asia Cup | 45.00 | 70.20 | 61.54 | Bangladesh
Sri Lanka | 38.33 | 65.98 | 64.11 | Sri Lanka
Australia | 30.33 | 59.26 | 64.80 | U.A.E.
New Zealand | 39.00 | 45.82 | 73.86 | U.A.E.
Cumulative | 38.16 | 60.31 | 66.08 |As stated above, his batting averages, strike rates and dot ball percentages are near identical in both 2013 and 2014 so in order to make it even more uniform I decided to have a trend analysis of how he did across both the years.
The method used was to periodically plot scatter points for all the 9 series Shehzad played in these two years and made a trend comparison to know better on where he stood as a player and what can we expect from him hypothetically, if he’s selected and allowed to come back.
Here are his Trends.
Cumulative Numbers
* Cumulative Series Averages and Other Metrics [2013-2014]
Batting Average
Strike Rate
Dot Ball %
Although these graphical representations show exactly the same numbers we viewed in tabulated form earlier, they convey a distinct aspect of his game that most people conveniently miss – Shehzad’s Inconsistency to regularly muster his average each game.
The graphs clearly display that Shehzad has severe issues when it comes to batting consistency and these are reflected by the constant that is embedded in each equation for the line of best fit.
Code:
Avg => y = 1.1267x + 32.565
SrR => y = 0.60923x + 65.13572
DoB=> y = 0.3411x + 68.2595One can also clearly see that the scatter points are way off from the line of best fit and are reminiscent of the fact that Shehzad over the course of his most statistically beneficial 2 years did not have enough consistency to be counted as a premier batsman.
So where does Shehzad stand right now? Many folks and media personnel are calling for his return to the ODI side on the basis that he might be a thriving partner to someone like a Sharjeel but a guy who averages 38ish with a SR of 60 odd and a Dot Ball percentage of near 60-65 would genuinely be a downgrade to what Pakistan are specifically looking for in the shorter formats of the game – and that too as an opening batsman.
People often claim that he has been performing in the domestics recently and deserves a go for his recent string of scores but how conveniently these same people forget the likes of Fawad Alam and other domestic batsmen who have been for years now piling on the runs without much reward or a chance to showcase their abilities, on a consistent basis, at the international level.
The latter being excused, almost every time, with a simple detraction that domestic bowlers and conditions are not ‘testing enough’ and hence the mountain of scores hardly matter but with the same logic Ahmad Shehzad’s recent exploits should be taken with a grain of salt since according to many who refute players like Fawad and other regular performers, the scores in domestics hardly matter.
Also it is worthy to note that Shehzad’s ‘Golden Run’ in ODIs is embarrassingly mediocre-ish when it comes to modern ODI strike rates and strike rotation but we will be giving Ahmad the benefit of the doubt assuming that he has improved in the last 2 odd years and is now a better and more equipped batsman than what he was before.
For this very reason we will adjourn a hypothetical increment of 20 percent to his overall numbers that we took earlier from [1st Jan 2013 – 31st Dec 2014]. Now anyone who might have taken any college courses in Data Analysis, Time Series, Progression or even Calculus III would most certainly know that an increase of 20 odd percent to any live data trend is almost God like divine level progression – but for Ahmad Shehzad we will emphatically assume that this has happened since Dec 2014 up until now because #FansAreInHeart
What If Scenario
On the left hand side of the tabulated results are the original numbers that Ahmad Shehzad made during the season of Jan 2013 – Dec 2014. While on the right hand side are the hypothetical numbers he could potentially end up getting (upon being selected) if he has somehow managed to raise his game by 20 percent on each factor associated with his batting.
To give identical changes I incremented the averages and strike rates by 1.2 while simultaneously reducing the Dot Ball % by 0.8. The uniformity for these chances reflected in a 20% net positive to all his batting credentials and the yellow highlighted line at the end is a cumulative figure for the said attributes.
If all goes well for Ahmad Shehzad, then upon getting picked again he would be averaging in the mid-40s with a SR of near 75 and a Dot Ball % of 53-ish granted he has raised his game by 20 percent on the whole.
The funny question now remains – do we need a batsman in the team that strikes at 75 balls per 100 and plays out more than 50 percent of dot balls in his entire innings? Do we need someone who if ends up occupying the crease for 20 overs may let go 60+ odd deliveries without scoring or rotating the strike? And mind you this is after the hypothetical increase in average, strike rate and a significant reduction in dot ball percentage.
The yellow highlighted stats are near to what Azhar Ali was averaging when he first burst onto the scenes after the World Cup but since his approach, batting style and the method to progress an innings was outdated he has now become a burden on the team with a slump in form. Shehzad is a player who we can agree is in the same mold as how Azhar Ali bats during any limited overs match hence selecting a like for like player could severely lead to future problems when Shehzad himself suffers a bad patch or low form in general.
[MENTION=136079]ahmedwaqas92[/MENTION]
) incremented his numbers by a hypothetical 20% to see where we would land if, he's improved in the domestics but even so he had a 70ish SR with a Dot Ball % near 55...WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR AN OPENER !!
