ahmedwaqas92
ODI Debutant
- Joined
- Dec 26, 2013
- Runs
- 10,582
- Post of the Week
- 4
A month or so ago I started a series of regression models, for a select few batsmen, from the Pakistan's starting ODI XIs. The main purpose of such deep game statistics was to identify which current batsmen in our lineups were suited for the modern game while to help achieve this end, we isolated certain metrics for a few of our top order players and checked where they stood in terms of dot ball percentage, strike rates and other measurable batting variables.
Continuing on that similar trend I am now going to analyze batting numbers for one of the most celebrated and nurtured batting assets for Pakistan cricket - Babar Azam. As we might all know Babar Azam is arguably the most coached cricketer ever produced by our nation. He was recruited at the NCA in his early teenage years and has been part of the PCB program for almost a decade now. His batting (at face value) is extremely pleasing to say the least, however there should also be quantifiable evidence to back this claim and the analysis henceforth should give us a starting point on where the lad stands.
With that being said I would like to clarify a few of details on the subsequent progression and minor changes to the model that I previously used. The changes in metrics are as follows:
1) Unlike earlier editions, Babar's numbers calculated here are not segregated based on series by series (which was the case for Shehzad, Azhar and Sarfaraz), the reason why I have refrained from making this type of a progression is for the simple fact that all the latter mentioned players were dropped a few times since they debuted hence their statistics were spread over the course of a few years. Calculating batting metrics in this type of scenario could lead to a biased viewpoint as a hike in one season could very well influence someone's overall numbers. For Babar however the case is very straight forward, he has never been dropped since his debut ODI game against Zimbabwe in 2015 and has played all limited overs bilaterals for Pakistan up until the recently concluded West Indies One Day International series.
2) The CSR (Cumulative Strike Rate) is the average for the strike rate accumulated for all the innings Babar has played since that debut game. Please note this is not actual SR and is calculated as (SR incurred in every game / Total Innings). Previously, I took the CSR (For Azhar, Shehzad and Sarfaraz) based on series by series however in Babar's case I am not doing so as explained in point (1).
3) The progression doesn't account for the batting average and only calculates RPI (Runs per Innings). This type of a metric ensures that the 'Not Out' factor is eliminated from a person's career numbers and there is no bias in the final analysis.
4) Babar as of right now is Pakistan's designated #3 and by the looks of it, barring a total meltdown
, will remain to be so for a long period of time. In this progression I have identified the number of times Babar has not played at the #3 position and who might've played instead. While going through his numbers we will indeed look at the how much they fared at the 1-down position in direct comparison to Babar's numbers.
5) For Babar's batting analysis I have introduced three new statistical variables that, I believe could be one of the most important factors that might help us identify and nurture similarly talented and robust batting assets in Pakistan cricket. These new variables are based on a batsman's ability to align himself to the modern game and is an extremely verifiable facet via direct comparison.
The variables effectively are generated so that we can help establish two certain aspects of a batsmen's game - Strike Rotation & Power Hitting. These are the same traits that Pakistan is clearly struggling in at the moment and if similar analysis could be done on data provided in our domestics we could, to a lesser extent, claw through and pluck out these direly needed players from the talent pool currently available to us. The variables are:
(A) Stagnation Variable
(B) Power Hitting Variable
(C) Risk-Reward Variable
Now that we have established some authentic ground rules on how this analysis will pan out let us, without further a due delve into overall ODI numbers for Babar Azam.
Debut - 3rd ODI vs West Indies (2017)
Before I begin I would like to reiterate the following Acronyms:
TI = Total Innings
RPI = Runs Per Innings (Total Runs / Total Innings)
CSR = Cumulative Strike Rate (Σ(SR incurred in each game) / TI)
DB% = Dot Ball Percentage
CDB% = Cumulative Dot Ball % (Σ(DB% incurred in each game / TI)
Rotationt% (balls) = Accumulated percentage of total balls incurred for 1s, 2s and 3s
Bd% (balls) = Accumulated percentage of total balls incurred for 4s and 6s
Rotation% (Runs) = Accumulated percentage for total runs in 1s, 2s and 3s
Bd% (Runs) = Accumulated percentage for total runs in 4s and 6s
CR% (Balls) = Cumulative Rotation % in balls (Σ(Rotation% - Balls) / TI)
CR% (Runs) = Cumulative Rotation % in runs (Σ(Rotation% - Runs) / TI)
CBd% (Balls) = Cumulative Boundary % in balls (Σ(Bd% - Balls) / TI)
Cbd% (Runs) = Cumulative Boundary % in runs (Σ(Bd% - Runs) / TI)
From the onset of the above figures we can quickly identify some basic context from the numbers represented in the tables. Out of 26 innings (TI = Total Innings) Babar has scored six half centuries and five tons which translates to a fifty OR a ton 11 times out of the total 26. This puts Babar having a minimum probability of achieving a milestone for 50 or more 42 percent of the time in all games he has played up until now.
When he doesn't score a ton his RPI (Runs per Innings) is 35.1 at a SR of 85.6, extremely reasonable for a 22 year old rookie in international cricket while his probability of scoring a 50 shifts to 28.57 percent. His overall RPI is above 50 with a SR of 90 odd in his first 26 games. What's impressive is that his CSR also is 84.xx which determines that his career SR is not inflated by bashing selective bowling attacks and determines that he, on the whole hovers somewhere around 90 SR every time he comes out to bat.
The worrying part is that his CDB% (Cumulative dot ball percentage) is only a minuscule below 50 (@ 49.21) which identifies an extremely pending problem in most Pakistani batsmen these days. A Dot Ball Percentage of around 50 could mean that the batsmen has an equal chance of playing a dot ball as he could of scoring a run and if we plot his dot ball percentage graph in a linear model we can see that the trend is an increasing one - albeit an extremely small increment overall.
On the flip side we can also claim that even though his DB% is rather on the higher side his strike rotation capabilities are extremely good as well. In terms of balls faced his CR% (Cumulative Rotation Percentage) is an impressive 42.72 which in simpler teams indicates that out of 10 deliveries he might potentially face, Babar can effectively rotate strike on every other delivery ~ approximately.
This is almost equivalent to gold dust for a lineup that predominately struggles to rotate the strike during the middle overs and further evaluates that Babar unlike most Pakistani batsmen doesn't premeditate a high percentage shot which reduces his overall risk in the innings and ensures that he puts a price on his wicket. The preceding factor can also be verified by noticing that his BD% for balls is just a mere 8.07 percent.
If we plot linear trend for both Rotation and Boundary % (in balls consumed) we get the following graphical representation:
(i) Rotation % in Balls Faced
(ii) Boundary % in Balls Faced
Now here comes the tricky part, Babar's numbers at face value even when we delve into deep game statistics look impressive to say the least but what I fear is that with the trend that is displaying for dot balls, rotation and boundaries it seems as if he progression is going towards a reduced performance in the long haul, although the progression is extremely small but still the trend shows that Babar needs to work on his game harder than what he is currently doing and there is indeed a lot of room for improvement especially when it comes to dot ball percentages and strike rotation.
As far as the batting variables go Babar's Stagnation variable, which I have isolated to enable us to mark his strike rotation capabilities, is at 1.15 (CDB% / CRt%). This ratio, which I previously defined as being a metric to quantify strike farmers in general clearly states that if a batsmen has a S-var > 1 then clearly it highlights that this particular batsman has issues in rotating strike as on every delivery he faces in international one day cricket, he will have a higher probability to score a dot than to score a run and this in modern limited overs batting is equivalent to criminal offence, especially for a #3 batsman.
Another variable, the PH-var or Power Hitting Variable shows how much power hitting intention does the batsmen employ during a course of an innings. For Babar since his boundary percentage w.r.t. balls faced is only 8.07 the PH-var calculates to 0.188. For a #3 that showcases in a rather fragile lineup this can be acceptable initially but if Pakistan needs to step up their Limited Overs Batting credentials; Babar and only one other (ideally Sarfraz) can play such a role. The rest of the batting lineup should employ a more offensive mindset and take a higher percentage of risk in their innings to hit boundaries and Arial slogs. Simply speaking for what it's worth, Babar Azam should be the only anchor in the team if we are to see consistent 300-350 run scores from Pakistan in future.
An additional aspect of Babar's game that we can look towards is his percentage of runs scored via rotation and boundaries, as such a run down will essentially give us an idea of Babar's overall ability as batsman and his scale of dynamism.
This type of a metric usually can be conducted for a lower order hitter but since Babar has a 50 to 100 conversion ratio of almost 1:1 a lot of times he goes up until the latter part of the innings and requires this part of his game to be tested. From the preceding statistical tables we can essentially see that 62.20 percent of his runs come from (1s, 2s and 3s) while he the remaining 37.80 are accumulated via (4s and 6s).
The linear trends based on game by game statistics for these variable are:
(iii) Rotation % - Runs
(iv) Boundary % - Runs
Based on the above numbers we can now finally calculate the RR-var (Risk Reward Variable) for Babar while conjuring on his cumulative rotation and boundary numbers (CR% - Runs / CBD% - Runs) the ratio stands at 0.61 which according to our introductory explanation of the variable, makes Babar an 'Intermediately Dynamic' batsman.
The Ceiling Argument
On numerous occasions I have heard that Babar, even though he's playing and winning matches for Pakistan cricket currently, has a much higher 'ceiling' that what he is displaying at the moment and can take it up a notch from here as well.
According to the data above I humbly beg to differ on this particular argument as clearly the trends for each and every aspect of his game show that this is probably the most optimum level of performance he is giving based on his current abilities and experience
Yes, I agree that he CAN improve his game above and beyond based on extended net sessions, hours and hours of batting practice, better fitness and more runs but current metrics and comparing his List A data with his international cricket numbers I personally am quite certain that Babar is utilizing his talent and abilities to the fullest of whatever talent, abilities and experience he has in his arsenal at the moment.
The real challenge now would be to maintain this level of performance and add extra credentials and variations to his overall batting. This would define his ceiling in the long run and not what he is currently doing in international cricket.
The Verdict
The verdict based on the above data for Babar Azam will essentially lead to a favorable and positive review from most analysts and critics however, it is extremely important to note that Babar has an increasing Dot Ball % trend and a decreasing rotation trend for number of balls faced. This should very well be an alarming situation for the management and coaching staff of Pakistan cricket as Babar, being the star batsman of our lineup, should be assisted with any possible hindrance in his game.
Finally even though we acknowledge that Babar is a God sent for our batting frailties in ODI cricket there is still a lot of room for improvement and if Babar himself has the hunger and drive to move gain more success in future than he needs to continue working hard on his game and fitness, based on the above data, and attain additional accolades in the long haul.
Additional Notes
Out of 26 innings in International One Dayers Babar has played in the following positions:
Position | No of Innings
#2 | 2
#3 | 10
#4 | 13
#6 | 1
Whenever Babar has played below #3 there were three personnel who slotted in that position
Name | No of Innings | RPI | SR
Hafeez | 10 | 50.9 | 90.08
Azhar | 3 | 31.0 | 76.85
Asad | 1 | 16.0 | 25.00
Continuing on that similar trend I am now going to analyze batting numbers for one of the most celebrated and nurtured batting assets for Pakistan cricket - Babar Azam. As we might all know Babar Azam is arguably the most coached cricketer ever produced by our nation. He was recruited at the NCA in his early teenage years and has been part of the PCB program for almost a decade now. His batting (at face value) is extremely pleasing to say the least, however there should also be quantifiable evidence to back this claim and the analysis henceforth should give us a starting point on where the lad stands.
With that being said I would like to clarify a few of details on the subsequent progression and minor changes to the model that I previously used. The changes in metrics are as follows:
1) Unlike earlier editions, Babar's numbers calculated here are not segregated based on series by series (which was the case for Shehzad, Azhar and Sarfaraz), the reason why I have refrained from making this type of a progression is for the simple fact that all the latter mentioned players were dropped a few times since they debuted hence their statistics were spread over the course of a few years. Calculating batting metrics in this type of scenario could lead to a biased viewpoint as a hike in one season could very well influence someone's overall numbers. For Babar however the case is very straight forward, he has never been dropped since his debut ODI game against Zimbabwe in 2015 and has played all limited overs bilaterals for Pakistan up until the recently concluded West Indies One Day International series.
2) The CSR (Cumulative Strike Rate) is the average for the strike rate accumulated for all the innings Babar has played since that debut game. Please note this is not actual SR and is calculated as (SR incurred in every game / Total Innings). Previously, I took the CSR (For Azhar, Shehzad and Sarfaraz) based on series by series however in Babar's case I am not doing so as explained in point (1).
3) The progression doesn't account for the batting average and only calculates RPI (Runs per Innings). This type of a metric ensures that the 'Not Out' factor is eliminated from a person's career numbers and there is no bias in the final analysis.
4) Babar as of right now is Pakistan's designated #3 and by the looks of it, barring a total meltdown
, will remain to be so for a long period of time. In this progression I have identified the number of times Babar has not played at the #3 position and who might've played instead. While going through his numbers we will indeed look at the how much they fared at the 1-down position in direct comparison to Babar's numbers.5) For Babar's batting analysis I have introduced three new statistical variables that, I believe could be one of the most important factors that might help us identify and nurture similarly talented and robust batting assets in Pakistan cricket. These new variables are based on a batsman's ability to align himself to the modern game and is an extremely verifiable facet via direct comparison.
The variables effectively are generated so that we can help establish two certain aspects of a batsmen's game - Strike Rotation & Power Hitting. These are the same traits that Pakistan is clearly struggling in at the moment and if similar analysis could be done on data provided in our domestics we could, to a lesser extent, claw through and pluck out these direly needed players from the talent pool currently available to us. The variables are:
(A) Stagnation Variable
(B) Power Hitting Variable
(C) Risk-Reward Variable
Now that we have established some authentic ground rules on how this analysis will pan out let us, without further a due delve into overall ODI numbers for Babar Azam.
Debut - 3rd ODI vs West Indies (2017)
Before I begin I would like to reiterate the following Acronyms:
TI = Total Innings
RPI = Runs Per Innings (Total Runs / Total Innings)
CSR = Cumulative Strike Rate (Σ(SR incurred in each game) / TI)
DB% = Dot Ball Percentage
CDB% = Cumulative Dot Ball % (Σ(DB% incurred in each game / TI)
Rotationt% (balls) = Accumulated percentage of total balls incurred for 1s, 2s and 3s
Bd% (balls) = Accumulated percentage of total balls incurred for 4s and 6s
Rotation% (Runs) = Accumulated percentage for total runs in 1s, 2s and 3s
Bd% (Runs) = Accumulated percentage for total runs in 4s and 6s
CR% (Balls) = Cumulative Rotation % in balls (Σ(Rotation% - Balls) / TI)
CR% (Runs) = Cumulative Rotation % in runs (Σ(Rotation% - Runs) / TI)
CBd% (Balls) = Cumulative Boundary % in balls (Σ(Bd% - Balls) / TI)
Cbd% (Runs) = Cumulative Boundary % in runs (Σ(Bd% - Runs) / TI)
From the onset of the above figures we can quickly identify some basic context from the numbers represented in the tables. Out of 26 innings (TI = Total Innings) Babar has scored six half centuries and five tons which translates to a fifty OR a ton 11 times out of the total 26. This puts Babar having a minimum probability of achieving a milestone for 50 or more 42 percent of the time in all games he has played up until now.
When he doesn't score a ton his RPI (Runs per Innings) is 35.1 at a SR of 85.6, extremely reasonable for a 22 year old rookie in international cricket while his probability of scoring a 50 shifts to 28.57 percent. His overall RPI is above 50 with a SR of 90 odd in his first 26 games. What's impressive is that his CSR also is 84.xx which determines that his career SR is not inflated by bashing selective bowling attacks and determines that he, on the whole hovers somewhere around 90 SR every time he comes out to bat.
The worrying part is that his CDB% (Cumulative dot ball percentage) is only a minuscule below 50 (@ 49.21) which identifies an extremely pending problem in most Pakistani batsmen these days. A Dot Ball Percentage of around 50 could mean that the batsmen has an equal chance of playing a dot ball as he could of scoring a run and if we plot his dot ball percentage graph in a linear model we can see that the trend is an increasing one - albeit an extremely small increment overall.
On the flip side we can also claim that even though his DB% is rather on the higher side his strike rotation capabilities are extremely good as well. In terms of balls faced his CR% (Cumulative Rotation Percentage) is an impressive 42.72 which in simpler teams indicates that out of 10 deliveries he might potentially face, Babar can effectively rotate strike on every other delivery ~ approximately.
This is almost equivalent to gold dust for a lineup that predominately struggles to rotate the strike during the middle overs and further evaluates that Babar unlike most Pakistani batsmen doesn't premeditate a high percentage shot which reduces his overall risk in the innings and ensures that he puts a price on his wicket. The preceding factor can also be verified by noticing that his BD% for balls is just a mere 8.07 percent.
If we plot linear trend for both Rotation and Boundary % (in balls consumed) we get the following graphical representation:
(i) Rotation % in Balls Faced
(ii) Boundary % in Balls Faced
Now here comes the tricky part, Babar's numbers at face value even when we delve into deep game statistics look impressive to say the least but what I fear is that with the trend that is displaying for dot balls, rotation and boundaries it seems as if he progression is going towards a reduced performance in the long haul, although the progression is extremely small but still the trend shows that Babar needs to work on his game harder than what he is currently doing and there is indeed a lot of room for improvement especially when it comes to dot ball percentages and strike rotation.
As far as the batting variables go Babar's Stagnation variable, which I have isolated to enable us to mark his strike rotation capabilities, is at 1.15 (CDB% / CRt%). This ratio, which I previously defined as being a metric to quantify strike farmers in general clearly states that if a batsmen has a S-var > 1 then clearly it highlights that this particular batsman has issues in rotating strike as on every delivery he faces in international one day cricket, he will have a higher probability to score a dot than to score a run and this in modern limited overs batting is equivalent to criminal offence, especially for a #3 batsman.
Another variable, the PH-var or Power Hitting Variable shows how much power hitting intention does the batsmen employ during a course of an innings. For Babar since his boundary percentage w.r.t. balls faced is only 8.07 the PH-var calculates to 0.188. For a #3 that showcases in a rather fragile lineup this can be acceptable initially but if Pakistan needs to step up their Limited Overs Batting credentials; Babar and only one other (ideally Sarfraz) can play such a role. The rest of the batting lineup should employ a more offensive mindset and take a higher percentage of risk in their innings to hit boundaries and Arial slogs. Simply speaking for what it's worth, Babar Azam should be the only anchor in the team if we are to see consistent 300-350 run scores from Pakistan in future.
An additional aspect of Babar's game that we can look towards is his percentage of runs scored via rotation and boundaries, as such a run down will essentially give us an idea of Babar's overall ability as batsman and his scale of dynamism.
This type of a metric usually can be conducted for a lower order hitter but since Babar has a 50 to 100 conversion ratio of almost 1:1 a lot of times he goes up until the latter part of the innings and requires this part of his game to be tested. From the preceding statistical tables we can essentially see that 62.20 percent of his runs come from (1s, 2s and 3s) while he the remaining 37.80 are accumulated via (4s and 6s).
The linear trends based on game by game statistics for these variable are:
(iii) Rotation % - Runs
(iv) Boundary % - Runs
Based on the above numbers we can now finally calculate the RR-var (Risk Reward Variable) for Babar while conjuring on his cumulative rotation and boundary numbers (CR% - Runs / CBD% - Runs) the ratio stands at 0.61 which according to our introductory explanation of the variable, makes Babar an 'Intermediately Dynamic' batsman.
The Ceiling Argument
On numerous occasions I have heard that Babar, even though he's playing and winning matches for Pakistan cricket currently, has a much higher 'ceiling' that what he is displaying at the moment and can take it up a notch from here as well.
According to the data above I humbly beg to differ on this particular argument as clearly the trends for each and every aspect of his game show that this is probably the most optimum level of performance he is giving based on his current abilities and experience
Yes, I agree that he CAN improve his game above and beyond based on extended net sessions, hours and hours of batting practice, better fitness and more runs but current metrics and comparing his List A data with his international cricket numbers I personally am quite certain that Babar is utilizing his talent and abilities to the fullest of whatever talent, abilities and experience he has in his arsenal at the moment.
The real challenge now would be to maintain this level of performance and add extra credentials and variations to his overall batting. This would define his ceiling in the long run and not what he is currently doing in international cricket.
The Verdict
The verdict based on the above data for Babar Azam will essentially lead to a favorable and positive review from most analysts and critics however, it is extremely important to note that Babar has an increasing Dot Ball % trend and a decreasing rotation trend for number of balls faced. This should very well be an alarming situation for the management and coaching staff of Pakistan cricket as Babar, being the star batsman of our lineup, should be assisted with any possible hindrance in his game.
Finally even though we acknowledge that Babar is a God sent for our batting frailties in ODI cricket there is still a lot of room for improvement and if Babar himself has the hunger and drive to move gain more success in future than he needs to continue working hard on his game and fitness, based on the above data, and attain additional accolades in the long haul.
Additional Notes
Out of 26 innings in International One Dayers Babar has played in the following positions:
Position | No of Innings
#2 | 2
#3 | 10
#4 | 13
#6 | 1
Whenever Babar has played below #3 there were three personnel who slotted in that position
Name | No of Innings | RPI | SR
Hafeez | 10 | 50.9 | 90.08
Azhar | 3 | 31.0 | 76.85
Asad | 1 | 16.0 | 25.00
