Coronavirus in India

[Nikhil_cric]

These are only the confirmed cases. The number might be higher which is kinda scary .

 

[cricketjoshila]

https://caravanmagazine.in/health/who-declares-local-transmission-of-coronavirus-in-india

Not sure what to make of this article.

Hope it all ends well.

A widespread infection in India will be brutal.

Stop reading third rate propoganda articles. And stop sharing them and causing panic. This is not the time to score bownie political points.

Local spread is already acknowledged by the govt. And India isnt on the same plane as Italy China Iran Korea US etc, where the virus has progressed to Community spread stage. If India is able to keep the virus to local spread stage or contain the community spread stage to a geographical location, that should control the disease.

The report mentions anonymous source. Lol.

 

[cricketjoshila]

Hopefully, these 96 people will recover. But considering the number of people we have, I wonder how many will be unconfirmed cases.

7 have recovered, i think.

See most will be mild cases and less than 15 percent will require hospitalisation.

400 plus died in India during the swine flu pandemic of 2009.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Stop reading third rate propoganda articles. And stop sharing them and causing panic. This is not the time to score bownie political points.

Local spread is already acknowledged by the govt. And India isnt on the same plane as Italy China Iran Korea US etc, where the virus has progressed to Community spread stage. If India is able to keep the virus to local spread stage or contain the community spread stage to a geographical location, that should control the disease.

The report mentions anonymous source. Lol.

So you think I was using this to score brownie political points?

Really?

Like I need to use this to put down this govt? As if I don't have a million other options to do the same.

---

I am just concerned.

Scrolln is also mentioning it. I believe that's also third rate article source according to you.

So leave that.

Yeh lo.

Community transmission of Covid-19 is inevitable: ICMR

New Delhi: Community transmission of Covid-19 is inevitable, experts at India’s top health research body have said. Having isolated the virus which is a 'Wuhan-like strain', they believe the virus would follow the same pattern as it did in China. “The virus will behave the same way it has behaved in China. It will follow the same pattern,” Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) director general Balram Bhargava said. India has a 30-day window to halt the beginning of community transmission, he said.

“If we manage 30 days, if community transmission doesn’t happen in the next 30 days, we may be at a good wicket.” Community transmission happens when a patient who is not exposed to anyone known to be infected and has not travelled to countries in which the virus is circulating tests positive for infection.

Experts at the ICMR said there were four states of the disease. Stage 1 is getting imported cases, stage 2 is local transmission, stage 3 is community transmission and stage 4 is when it turns into an epidemic. While, India is at stage 2 now, experts said stern precautions were being taken so that going to stage 3 could be halted. “Taking these precautions will help so we don’t go into stage 3 which has happened in all other countries including Italy, China, the US and Europe.


Going to that stage is inevitable but if we can prevent, that window of opportunity is now,” added Bhargava.


India has already demonstrated local transmission which scientists have seen in the Covid-19 case of Agra, where five to six family members of an infected person got infected too. The same is true of Kerala. “We are not much worried up till stage 2. Stage 3 where the communities will be affected and in large areas, that is worrisome. Graph says that once community transmission happens it touches the tip,” Bhargava said. “We don’t want to create fear but we have to be realistic and pragmatic. Can we halt at this stage? Efforts of every individual is important,” he said. Scientists said India is trying hard to keep stage-four at bay.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

In your own post you say IF India is able to keep the virus at local stage... which is what the experts are expanding about. They too use the words "IF" and "MAY".

There are enough reasons to be concerned.

India has seen enough deaths.

Just don't want more.

That's all.

No politics here.

 

[cricketjoshila]

So you think I was using this to score brownie political points?

Really?

Like I need to use this to put down this govt? As if I don't have a million other options to do the same.

---

I am just concerned.

Scrolln is also mentioning it. I believe that's also third rate article source according to you.

So leave that.

Yeh lo.

Community transmission of Covid-19 is inevitable: ICMR



https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

In your own post you say IF India is able to keep the virus at local stage... which is what the experts are expanding about. They too use the words "IF" and "MAY".

There are enough reasons to be concerned.

India has seen enough deaths.

Just don't want more.

That's all.

No politics here.

The second article is closer to truth. Closer to reality.

The first one you shared is propoganda **** and yes you were trying to put down the govts efforts because of your bias. There is a reason no MSM has talked this kind of rubbish and the caravan cannot name any experts.

From your own posted article

"While, India is at stage 2 now, experts said stern precautions were being taken so that going to stage 3 could be halted."

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

The second article is closer to truth. Closer to reality.

The first one you shared is propoganda **** and yes you were trying to put down the govts efforts because of your bias. There is a reason no MSM has talked this kind of rubbish and the caravan cannot name any experts.

From your own posted article

"While, India is at stage 2 now, experts said stern precautions were being taken so that going to stage 3 could be halted."

Lo kar li apni analysis?

If I was trying to put down the govt, why would I bold and red the part where the anonymous worker says govt is trying their best and once they have the infrastructure, they will test more people?

From your own posted article

"While, India is at stage 2 now, experts said stern precautions were being taken so that going to stage 3 could be halted."

So?

The same experts say this:

“If we manage 30 days, if community transmission doesn’t happen in the next 30 days, we may be at a good wicket.”

“We are not much worried up till stage 2. Stage 3 where the communities will be affected and in large areas, that is worrisome. Graph says that once community transmission happens it touches the tip,”

We don’t want to create fear but we have to be realistic and pragmatic. Can we halt at this stage? Efforts of every individual is important,”

Evidence of our convo suggests that:

1. It's not me who is concerned about govt image. But you. I never attacked govt or talked about Modi. In fact, I highlighted the point where it shows our govt is trying the best (said by the annonymous source).

2. You on the other hand, have jumped into defense THINKING I am attacking the govt. You quote one part of the article I post (as if its the TRUTH I ignored when I myself have highlighted it) but ignore the other part where the experts themselves are concerned and worried. Like you can't be serious.

Again....a request to self introspect.

 

[kaayal]

Only solution is to make testing facilities more easily available. I read that there are Indian companies ready to supply kits only if and when the government liberalizes policy. The more they test and isolate people like in South Korea and Singapore, the deaths can be put under control.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Only solution is to make testing facilities more easily available. I read that there are Indian companies ready to supply kits only if and when the government liberalizes policy. The more they test and isolate people like in South Korea and Singapore, the deaths can be put under control.

Right now what's the best way to get tested?

Just go to doctor who will direct us to the test centre?

 

[Local.Dada]

Right now what's the best way to get tested?

Just go to doctor who will direct us to the test centre?

Any symptoms absolutely need to get it checked asap but just because you can afford to or know someone at the hospital getting checked just for the heck of it at this stage means just blocking time and facility for someone who really needs it.

This is what is happening in western counties too, perfectly normal and healthy people are taking up appointments in an already crowded and panicking environment that the ones who have signs and are potentially infected are going back in the queue

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Any symptoms absolutely need to get it checked asap but just because you can afford to or know someone at the hospital getting checked just for the heck of it at this stage means just blocking time and facility for someone who really needs it.

This is what is happening in western counties too, perfectly normal and healthy people are taking up appointments in an already crowded and panicking environment that the ones who have signs and are potentially infected are going back in the queue

Yeah true.

Wifey has sore throat. But no persistent coughing or fever. Coughed a bit earlier in the day but it didn't continue.

I coughed a bit too earlier (it stopped) but no sore throat or fever.

So wondering whether to take her or not.

 

[Local.Dada]

Yeah true.

Wifey has sore throat. But no persistent coughing or fever. Coughed a bit earlier in the day but it didn't continue.

I coughed a bit too earlier (it stopped) but no sore throat or fever.

So wondering whether to take her or not.

Stay safe buddy

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Stay safe buddy

Thanks man.

 

[kaayal]

Right now what's the best way to get tested?

Just go to doctor who will direct us to the test centre?

This is the current testing strategy considering there is no community spread as of now (according to the authorities).



If you are in TN, there are 2 testing centres there, Chennai and Theni. Samples will be sent to there.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

This is the current testing strategy considering there is no community spread as of now (according to the authorities).

View attachment 100004

If you are in TN, there are 2 testing centres there, Chennai and Theni. Samples will be sent to there.

Ok thanks.

So no need to test for now.

Kinda concerning that they won't test someone who may have symptoms (mild as they may be) but I suppose they will soon. lol.

 

[kaayal]

Ok thanks.

So no need to test for now.

Kinda concerning that they won't test someone who may have symptoms (mild as they may be) but I suppose they will soon. lol.

Yes, you don’t need to test as of now. But tbh, the disease is now spreading like a wildfire and we need to test each one with mild cases too to prevent the transmission. I hope our health system doesn’t break down because of the overwhelming number of patients coming up in the next few days.

 

[IndianHero]

Islam' does not approve: Four Muslims who returned from Dubai threaten health officials in Karnataka, refuse to undergo Coronavirus test

At a time when the entire world is on edge due to coronavirus outbreak, a shocking incident of recklessness has been reported from Bhatkal town of Karnataka where four Muslim youths who had recently returned from Dubai has objected to medical tests claiming that Islam did not permit them to be subjected to medical tests, reports Public TV. The District administration of Uttara Kannada, Karnataka has been on a high alert ever since the coronavirus outbreak has occurred.

The district officials on Friday attempted to carry out a medical checkup in Muslim-dominated areas of Bhatkal.

Four Muslim youths, who had returned to the city from Dubai on Friday, were asked to submit themselves to the medical check-up as a precautionary measure.

The four Muslim youths threatened the health officials and asked them to return.

The Muslim youths objected to carrying out any medical tests citing that Islam does not permit such tests.

Meanwhile the Uttara Kannada district officials have also quarantined 14 people belonging to a single-family, who had returned from a religious trip to Mecca and Medina.

Source : https://www.reddit.com/r/autotldr/c..._source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_body

 

[IndianHero]

To avoid medical tests & quarantine we indians can go to any level ! Unfortunately we don't look at the larger picture !

I am sure these 4 guyz r wrongly quoting religion as an excuse to avoid coronavirus test ! God forbid even If they are positive still they can saved & more importantly their family members will be saved (in case they have COVID-19) too.

 

[kaayal]

To avoid medical tests & quarantine we indians can go to any level ! Unfortunately we don't look at the larger picture !

I am sure these 4 guyz r wrongly quoting religion as an excuse to avoid coronavirus test ! God forbid even If they are positive still they can saved & more importantly their family members will be saved (in case they have COVID-19) too.

Arrest them, put in isolation ward and test. Few people can’t put the whole community under risk.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

Count is 114

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Health Ministry says 114 including the foreign nationals.

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

But it hasn't updated Maharashtra numbers. It shows them as 32 when its 37.

----

4 More Coronavirus Cases in Maharashtra | Four more people have been tested positive for #coronavirus in Mumbai and Navi Mumbai, taking the total number of cases to 37 in the state, said the Maharashtra Health Ministry.

-----

What is weird is here it says 129 for India (with 114 active cases and added 15 today - linking back to our Health Ministry website and a few other news articles).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Can anyone clarify? I thought latter was reliable (as its used worldwide) but it's showing a different data. This site did mention about hacking and glitches which it corrected.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

Reports of 2 more cases who have come from Europe. Count might be 116 including Italian travelers.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

A lot of people in our country still don't understand the SCALE of this issue.

When the exponential growth truly comes into play, that's when all hell breaks loose.

Even my own mom (though now she is starting to get it).

I have been seeing some growth charts of the western nations and its truly scary.

----

Checking for the rate of NEW cases each day is the most important metric now.

That alongside widening testing net.

---

 

[IndianHero]

120 cases at this moment but my doubt is does this account to people who have recovered & been discharged ?

For example: In hyderabad where I live, one techie (who came from dubai & travelled in bus to hyderabad) who got positive was discharged day before yesterday, another techie (who came from Italy) got positive but was discharged too, also one patient from delhi got discharged ,

are media guys subtracting the count of discharged from this total cases ? I don't think they are doing that.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

120 cases at this moment but my doubt is does this account to people who have recovered & been discharged ?

For example: In hyderabad where I live, one techie (who came from dubai & travelled in bus to hyderabad) who got positive was discharged day before yesterday, another techie (who came from Italy) got positive but was discharged too, also one patient from delhi got discharged ,

are media guys subtracting the count of discharged from this total cases ? I don't think they are doing that.

Sources like these - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Add up both active & closed cases (death or discharge).

Our govt site doesn't seem to be adding.

They are subtracting those who got discharged or died.

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

Oh that's why there is a stat discrepancy between 114 and 129. Just realized.

114 active.
13 discharged
2 died.

So 129.

That aligns with how the world is calculating I believe.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

@sensible, we need not count cured/ died cases. Active case count is ~ 120 as of now. 103 Indians + 17 Italians

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

@sensible, we need not count cured/ died cases. Active case count is ~ 120 as of now. 103 Indians + 17 Italians

Either way is fine.

But a common standard makes it easier to process info.

I use that site to track daily new cases in different countries.

 

[globalcitizen]

It’s better to just show only active case counts. It’s always good to be reporting above threshold than under reporting in this situation.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

125 active cases as of today.

107 Indians and 18 foreign nationals.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

3rd death.

104 Indians + 22 foreigners = 126 active cases as

 

[Slog]

In India it’s not spiking up like in other countries so I hope that is a good sign

Others including now Pakistan unfortunately have been seeing exponential growth everyday whereas in India it seems to be linear

 

[IndianHero]

In India it’s not spiking up like in other countries so I hope that is a good sign

Others including now Pakistan unfortunately have been seeing exponential growth everyday whereas in India it seems to be linear

Too early to say that actually. Yesterday itself it added 15 cases in a single day !

Next two weeks are going to crucial for every country , if they can handle this epidemic in these two weeks then people will start recovering from april 2nd week with drop in cases.

 

[kaayal]

Don’t be fooled by the numbers on the site. It’s just a function of test conducted on suspected individuals. The actual number is much much higher considering the contagiousness of the virus.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Don’t be fooled by the numbers on the site. It’s just a function of test conducted on suspected individuals. The actual number is much much higher considering the contagiousness of the virus.

My fear too.

When will test kits roll out?

Also when will govt open up testing for all?

My wife's friend is a doctor in trichy and there are some real scares there.

Test results yet to come.

 

[kaayal]

My fear too.

When will test kits roll out?

Also when will govt open up testing for all?

My wife's friend is a doctor in trichy and there are some real scares there.

Test results yet to come.

Don’t know when we will be able to test more but that’s what we should be doing along with social distancing, self isolation and contact tracing. More test test test... there is no way out.

 

[cricketjoshila]

Don’t be fooled by the numbers on the site. It’s just a function of test conducted on suspected individuals. The actual number is much much higher considering the contagiousness of the virus.

Has there been any community transmission?

 

[shah_1]

I fear it will explode in SC in a week or two like Italy & Iran. This virus looks impossible to stop.

 

[kaayal]

Has there been any community transmission?

Most probably. That British tourists traveled all around Kerala before testing positive. Similarly many people who tested positive. Most of them are in home quarantine. Not everyone are tested as of now.

 

[cricketjoshila]

Most probably. That British tourists traveled all around Kerala before testing positive. Similarly many people who tested positive. Most of them are in home quarantine. Not everyone are tested as of now.

Thats local spread. Not community transmission.

 

[kaayal]

Thats local spread. Not community transmission.

We are in stage 2 right now. The ICMR officials are not sure whether there is community transmission as of now but there is a high chance for it especially in states with poor health care facilities like UP where there are 10 positive cases already.

 

[MenInG]

MUMBAI/KARACHI (Reuters) - India closed the Taj Mahal, its principal tourist site, and the financial hub of Mumbai ordered offices providing non-essential services to keep half their staff at home in ramped up measures to curb the coronavirus in South Asia.

FILE PHOTO: The historic Taj Mahal is pictured, where U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump are expected to visit, in Agra, India, February 23, 2020. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri
Mumbai, a densely populated metropolis of 18 million people, also authorised hospital and airport authorities to stamp wrists of those ordered to self-isolate with indelible ink reading “Home Quarantined” and displaying the date the quarantine ends.

The moves, announced late on Monday, come just days after the city shut down schools, cinemas, malls and gyms, and also banned mass gatherings.

India’s western state of Maharashtra, home to Mumbai, has been the hardest hit with 39 confirmed coronavirus cases, or roughly a quarter of the 126 cases in the country.

A patient in the state died after contracting the virus on Tuesday, Praveen Pardeshi, who heads Mumbai’s civic body, told Reuters: the third death in India.

Along with the Taj Mahal, dozens of other monuments and museums including the Ajanta and Ellora caves and religious sites such as Mumbai’s Siddhivinayak temple were closed.

India expanded its travel restrictions on Monday, banning passengers from countries of the European Union and European Free Trade Association, Turkey and the United Kingdom.

PAKISTAN SPIKE
Pakistan reported the number of confirmed cases had more than doubled for a second consecutive day, reaching 187.

Officials said the jump was largely due to errors in testing and quarantine of travellers who recently returned from Iran through a border crossing in Balochistan province.

“If the arrangements were better we could have saved these people from the virus,” Saeed Ghani, a minister in the provincial Sindh government where many of the cases were detected, told a television channel on Monday night.

Pakistan postponed its flagship Pakistan Super League cricket tournament on Tuesday at the semi-final stage.

Authorities in India and the wider South Asian region have struggled to get travellers to self-isolate or stay quarantined in medical facilities that many view as poor and unhygienic.

At least 38 Afghans, who recently returned from Iran and were in isolation, escaped from a facility in western Afghanistan on Monday after breaking windows and attacking hospital staff.

At least one of them was confirmed to have the coronavirus. The country currently has 22 confirmed cases.

Separately, in Navi Mumbai, a suburb of India’s financial hub, local media reported that 11 people, who had been isolated after returning from Dubai, also fled the hospital, forcing police to launch a manhunt.

Although South Asia has been relatively lightly hit by the coronavirus spread, authorities fear that measures used in China and South Korea would be hard to enforce in poor, crowded places that often lack adequate healthcare facilities.

With the overnight spike in Pakistan, the overall number of confirmed cases in South Asia is now approaching the 400 mark.

Sri Lanka, which is heavily reliant on tourism for foreign exchange, saw its currency hit a record low against the dollar on Tuesday. Pakistan’s stock market continued to slide, a day after recording one of its biggest ever one-day declines.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-spike-after-quarantine-errors-idUSKBN2140I0

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

India count 137
24 foreigners in it.

All uk, European union and few other countries have been banned from coming to India even for citizens starting tonight.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

Samples of community testing taken from Delhi and surroundings came negative. Another 1000 samples are taken 3 days back from South, 500 were negative, rest results are yet to come.

 

[Syed1]

My fear too.

When will test kits roll out?

Also when will govt open up testing for all?

My wife's friend is a doctor in trichy and there are some real scares there.

Test results yet to come.

Testing for all seems nearly impossible. The laboratory tests take about 6-8 hours and can be done in batches of about 50. It will take years if you want to test your ENTIRE population, hence governments are being pragmatic and testing those that travelled abroad, or those that came in contact with travellers or those that are displaying symptoms.

 

[Kaptan]

Till now situation seems under control. Not of big fan of current government (and politicians in general) but they have been proactive and have nicely controlled the situation (till now). Most people in Delhi have also shown great maturity and are taking this seriously. There will always be some new cases daily but our main aim should be to flatten out the epidemic curve. We are still in stage 2 and the longer we stay here the better it will be.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

Yes. All countries should not go through peak at one which will cause infra, fund, staff shortage overall. Till Europe is past it's peak we should hold still. Fingers crossed ...

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Testing for all seems nearly impossible. The laboratory tests take about 6-8 hours and can be done in batches of about 50. It will take years if you want to test your ENTIRE population, hence governments are being pragmatic and testing those that travelled abroad, or those that came in contact with travellers or those that are displaying symptoms.

That's true.

I meant those who are suspected (through kit roll outs, increasing number of labs and any other means).

Not every single person of our population.

Even during roll out, we have to have a strategic purpose considering our population.

The issue with India right now is that we haven't looked under the table (due to various constraints) and no one has an idea what's in there.

As far as controlling outsiders, lockdowns..the govt has been very good.

But as far as testing is concerned....I am not too sure.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

First case in west bengal. He came from UK 2 days back.

 

[big_gamer007]

It's so difficult to convince people to stay at home and take precautions.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

It's so difficult to convince people to stay at home and take precautions.

I went to the super market today to get some essential stuff.

Hand sanitizers were cleaned out. Panic buying for sure.

People were standing close to each other not aware of the risks.

Some were coughing.

Some were having pani puri.

It was like life was normal lol.

Very very few were aware of the risks imho.

Maybe situation is taken more seriously in North India and in other cities.

 

[Syed1]

People were standing close to each other not aware of the risks.

That is my biggest pet peeve in desi culture... absolutely no concept of personal space. If you are standing in queue it seems to be the norm that the guy behind you can stand so close that he breathes on your neck or his body (read protruding belly) is in contact with you.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

That is my biggest pet peeve in desi culture... absolutely no concept of personal space. If you are standing in queue it seems to be the norm that the guy behind you can stand so close that he breathes on your neck or his body (read protruding belly) is in contact with you.

True.

That's us desis.

 

[Hornbill]

It's so difficult to convince people to stay at home and take precautions.

If people stay at home number of road accident deaths will reduce significantly, that will actually help in saving hundreds of lives daily, in kerala many people are staying at home and reports about deaths due to road accidents are not frequently reported in last few days.

 

[Napa]

Don’t be fooled by the numbers on the site. It’s just a function of test conducted on suspected individuals. The actual number is much much higher considering the contagiousness of the virus.

My fear too.

When will test kits roll out?

Also when will govt open up testing for all?

My wife's friend is a doctor in trichy and there are some real scares there.

Test results yet to come.

Thats local spread. Not community transmission.

While it is true that not everybody is being tested, and possibly only a small percentage of those infected have been tested.... however, if the ratio of those who test positive to the total number of those infected remains constant OR increases, then the number of those testing positive conveys valuable information.

Given the above, if the number of those testing positive is increasing at a smaller rate then that is good news and gives hope that the rate of growth of infections is slowing... if the number is falling then the epidemic is dying out.

 

[BreadPakoda]

The idiots propagating fake cures like gaumutra and gobbar must be locked down. By organizing these filthy events they are posing a threat to the entire population.

But knowing chaiwala's loyalties, nothing will happen to them

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

While it is true that not everybody is being tested, and possibly only a small percentage of those infected have been tested.... however, if the ratio of those who test positive to the total number of those infected remains constant OR increases, then the number of those testing positive conveys valuable information.

Given the above, if the number of those testing positive is increasing at a smaller rate then that is good news and gives hope that the rate of growth of infections is slowing... if the number is falling then the epidemic is dying out.

The problem is that corona has an incubation period where things will remain harmless (relatively).

It gives you all the time in the world and then it explodes unlike anything else.

To put it into perspective: Corona Vs SAR Vs MERS Vs Swine Flu Vs Spanish Flu

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Exponential spreading growth of corona virus VS other major viruses <a href="https://t.co/ZXieVjYlVl">pic.twitter.com/ZXieVjYlVl</a></p>— Mohamed Basbous (@Mohamed_Basbous) <a href="https://twitter.com/Mohamed_Basbous/status/1237057754763792384?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 9, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In corona's case, the rise and fall need not necessarily mean growth and subsiding.

It depends on other facts.

If you don't test enough, there will be a point where numbers could fall down but it will ramp up like crazy within a few weeks with other sick patients knocking on your doors.

Same way if you test hard, you will find a MASSIVE spike of numbers, but if you keep at it relentlessly like South Korea, things will drop down eventually.

They started testing it hard and in 12-13 days, they went from 20 NEW cases per day to 813 cases per day but in the next 15 days, it dropped to as low as 73 per day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Italy on the other hand, were chillax for a bit too long, and numbers reached as high as 3500. Now its dropped slightly but only one day has passed so need some more time to see trends.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The most WEIRDEST stat is the UK stat.

They went for the herd immunity formula.

But in their case, their numbers are actually dropping.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

208
342
251
152

Either this is due to them not actively testing enough (which is part of their approach) or maybe they don't have much cases.

I doubt the latter when their neighbours are posting high numbers.

So time will answer UK's stat.

---

As for India, we went from 6 people in Mar 2 (sort of) to 142 (total cases) till now on Mar 17th.

That's 23.5% daily growth.

If we keep the same math for another 15 days (so a total of 30 days), those 6 people now balloon up to 3,333.

The number keeps growing like crazy.

Of course, this is all PAPER STATS which can't be taken as truth cos there are many variables here which will reduce the growth. But it kinda shows what can happen when you let time slide by.

That's why WHO is like urging everyone to test, test, test and test more. That's the only way to beat the system.

Unless one subscribes to Boris's method of herd immunity.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yes corona graph can be flattened. China, SKorea, Japan has done that. Stronger the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SocialDistancing?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SocialDistancing</a> is, lesser the rate of growth, flatter the curve and minimal the strain on healthcare resources. And we need to increase our public health delivery capacity. <a href="https://t.co/kfYZb4pGxU">https://t.co/kfYZb4pGxU</a> <a href="https://t.co/JBGCpYJLbj">pic.twitter.com/JBGCpYJLbj</a></p>— Njan simpleAN (@BhaktoKeBhakt) <a href="https://twitter.com/BhaktoKeBhakt/status/1239526111949840389?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Italy’s exponential growth of Corona is not an outlier. UK and USA following the same trajectory as Italy, just a a few days behind. <a href="https://t.co/jvIj43Dyf6">pic.twitter.com/jvIj43Dyf6</a></p>— Umar Saif (@umarsaif) <a href="https://twitter.com/umarsaif/status/1239067024476774405?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Napa]

The problem is that corona has an incubation period where things will remain harmless (relatively).

It gives you all the time in the world and then it explodes unlike anything else.

To put it into perspective: Corona Vs SAR Vs MERS Vs Swine Flu Vs Spanish Flu

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Exponential spreading growth of corona virus VS other major viruses <a href="https://t.co/ZXieVjYlVl">pic.twitter.com/ZXieVjYlVl</a></p>— Mohamed Basbous (@Mohamed_Basbous) <a href="https://twitter.com/Mohamed_Basbous/status/1237057754763792384?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 9, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In corona's case, the rise and fall need not necessarily mean growth and subsiding.

If the process of getting infected, incubation and then developing symptoms remains the same for different individuals, then it in a "large" population (with many individuals) it doesn't statistically matter how long these periods are.

That's why WHO is like urging everyone to test, test, test and test more. That's the only way to beat the system.

Unless one subscribes to Boris's method of herd immunity.

There seems to be a contradiction here. On one hand we are being advised to self isolate and now everyone should test? Getting a test done would require me to travel to some place where there are a lot of people, and possibly quite a few infected people. Are you recommending testing for people who haven't developed symptoms like fever and dry cough?

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

If the process of getting infected, incubation and then developing symptoms remains the same for different individuals, then it in a "large" population (with many individuals) it doesn't statistically matter how long these periods are.

There seems to be a contradiction here. On one hand we are being advised to self isolate and now everyone should test? Getting a test done would require me to travel to some place where there are a lot of people, and possibly quite a few infected people. Are you recommending testing for people who haven't developed symptoms like fever and dry cough?

If the process of getting infected, incubation and then developing symptoms remains the same for different individuals, then it in a "large" population (with many individuals) it doesn't statistically matter how long these periods are.

1. Not sure what you mean.

2. You self isolate to prevent spread. You test the most important suspected cases and move your way down. You will get data and patterns. Not talking about testing for all.

Read this - https://time.com/5804899/u-s-coronavirus-needs-follow-s-korea/

People with mild symptoms who get tested can self-isolate and help stop the spread of the virus. If one person has the disease, we can then test those they have been in contact with (known as “contact tracing”). In other words, testing and contact tracing can help to break the chain of transmission. As Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization’s director general, says: “Find, isolate, test and treat every case, and trace every contact.”

Testing also allows clinics and hospitals to become better prepared, as they know how many cases to expect. And, crucially, testing helps us to know where the disease is, how it is evolving, and where to target our efforts to control it. It identifies the hot spots of infections.

Countries that have flattened the curve made testing widely and freely available, using innovative approaches like mass drive-thru test centers. South Korea has been conducting around 12,000-15,000 tests every day, and has the capacity to do 20,000 daily. While it is hard to get accurate estimates, the CDC reports that only around 25,000 tests have been conducted in total nationwide by CDC or public health labs in the U.S.—compare this with the roughly 250,000 tests that South Korea has done to date.

Tests per million chart (7 days back)

https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2020-03/corona-virus-tests-8-countries.jpg

 

[globalcitizen]

India has only 150000 to 200000 test kits and needs time to get more kits. So goal is to not test everyone and run out of kits. Only the most affected with symptoms on 7 th or 8 day will be tested or someone who has a travel history to other infected countries.

Health ministry in its address yesterday has given clear guidelines and we can only hope that the hospitals understand this to the T.

One important thing to understand is test takes 5 days to give result, so we will actually lose 5 days and will be behind the curve, so at the moment precautions should be at highest

 

[BreadPakoda]

Why are people in India still travelling by public transport like locals?

 

[Napa]

1. Not sure what you mean.

It goes something like this. Suppose you have a large population of N individuals. Suppose you introduce an infection into this population with the following characteristics.

Days of incubation = X, days of illness with symptoms = Y, average number of days the patient takes to infect others = Z.

Suppose the number who are infected = M, and M >> 0 and M/N <<1

Then it doesn't matter what the ratios X/Y, Z/(X+Y) etc. are, the disease will follow an exponential rate of growth with the base equal to the number of new infections each patient causes, and the exponent equal to (number of days of growth)/Z.

If the base is < 1, the disease will die out with time. This will be true for large populations, even though the disease may have unusual incubation/hibernation characteristics.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

It goes something like this. Suppose you have a large population of N individuals. Suppose you introduce an infection into this population with the following characteristics.

Days of incubation = X, days of illness with symptoms = Y, average number of days the patient takes to infect others = Z.

Suppose the number who are infected = M, and M >> 0 and M/N <<1

Then it doesn't matter what the ratios X/Y, Z/(X+Y) etc. are, the disease will follow an exponential rate of growth with the base equal to the number of new infections each patient causes, and the exponent equal to (number of days of growth)/Z.

If the base is < 1, the disease will die out with time. This will be true for large populations, even though the disease may have unusual incubation/hibernation characteristics.

Disease will grow exponentially.

1 to 5 is exponential.

So is 100 to 500.

So is 1000 to 5000.

So is 10,000 to 50,000.

But earlier cases (sub 500) are so much better than latter.

The earlier you flatten the curve, the better.

 

[Napa]

Disease will grow exponentially.

1 to 5 is exponential.

So is 100 to 500.

So is 1000 to 5000.

So is 10,000 to 50,000.

But earlier cases (sub 500) are so much better than latter.

The earlier you flatten the curve, the better.

Yes, the earlier the better.

The issue of resources also comes into play. When the number infected is smaller, it is possible to take action to flatten the curve (which is another way of saying "reduce the base of the exponential growth"). Once the number gets large, the disease may overwhelm the available resources.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

India will be receiving 1 million test kits this week. Testing will be increased.

 

[Babu Bhaiya]

Why are people in India still travelling by public transport like locals?

Because they don’t have any other option, do they? People who live on daily wages, they have to feed their families. They will die from starvation if they stop traveling for work.

Many companies and offices are still running. So people working there have to travel. Specially people from sales background who have to be on field daily and can’t afford to have private vehicle. What choices do they have other than traveling in locals, metros, buses?? Their organisations will mark them absent if they stay at home. How will they pay the rents, bills, emis etc.

Its easier said that done to be at home, in a country like India.

 

[MP2011]

Because they don’t have any other option, do they? People who live on daily wages, they have to feed their families. They will die from starvation if they stop traveling for work.

Many companies and offices are still running. So people working there have to travel. Specially people from sales background who have to be on field daily and can’t afford to have private vehicle. What choices do they have other than traveling in locals, metros, buses?? Their organisations will mark them absent if they stay at home. How will they pay the rents, bills, emis etc.

Its easier said that done to be at home, in a country like India.

This is true. You can't bar people in India from boarding public transport. For majority of our population, it is their only mode of transport.

 

[GBK_Fan]

No community transmission in India yet

https://www.financialexpress.com/li...le-tests-in-march-negative-says-icmr/1901636/

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

https://www.deccanherald.com/nation...avami-mela-despite-covid-19-fears-814613.html

Ram Navami in times of coronavirus: Why lakhs will gather at Ayodhya despite COVID-19

Despite Ayodhya CMO Ghyanshyam Singh saying that they didn’t have “the infrastructure to screen and hand out masks to 5 lakh people”, the district administration has decided to go ahead with the event.

Amid the coronavirus pandemic, the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh has announced that the Ayodhya Ram Navami Mela, which draws lakhs of pilgrims from across the country, will be held from March 25 to April 2.

While the Ayodhya Chief Medical Officer (CMO) has raised concerns over a mass gathering amid the COVID-19 outbreak in India, the administration has brushed them aside, The Print has reported.

This move comes close on the heels of the government issuing advisories against mass gatherings, even cancelling events on Holi, and the BCCI (Board of Cricket Control of India) calling off the India-South Africa ODI matches, which were to be held in Lucknow and Kolkata this month.

The mela (or carnival) assumes added significance as it will be the first after the Supreme Court paved the way for the construction of a Ram Temple at Ayodhya. The top court, while putting an end to a decades-old title suit in November last year, had said that a separate land be given for the construction of a mosque.

The first day of the mela will see an idol of Lord Ram being shifted from its makeshift tent and being established inside a bullet-proof, waterproof fibre glass structure, which will be 21 feet in length and 15 feet in width. The ceremony will be overseen by the Ram Janmabhoomi Teertha Kshetra Trust as well as the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) – both supervising the construction of the Ram Temple.

As the idol is placed there, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will perform the first aarti the same day.

Asserting that postponing the event was not an option, VHP President Alok Kumar told the publication, “The shifting of Bhagwan Ram from the makeshift tent to the chabutara (platform) is long due. It’s a shubh muhurat on 24-25 March and the event can’t be deferred.”

Despite Ayodhya CMO Ghyanshyam Singh saying that they didn’t have “the infrastructure to screen and hand out masks to 5 lakh people”, the district administration has decided to go ahead with the event.

The move also comes when temples across the country have issued advisories for the safety of devotees in view of the coronavirus outbreak. This includes Mumbai’s popular Siddhivinayak Temple, which has been shut as a precautionary measure.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/i...ther-at-ayodhya-despite-covid-19-5042841.html

What do we do with these PATHETIC ANTI NATIONALS?

These jokers lecture us about India.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

UK goes from decline to a sharp spike.

159 to 400 odd.

Their trends looked dodgy.

 

[big_gamer007]

If people stay at home number of road accident deaths will reduce significantly, that will actually help in saving hundreds of lives daily, in kerala many people are staying at home and reports about deaths due to road accidents are not frequently reported in last few days.

Totally false analogy and has no equivalence to the discussion. But, I guess you wanted to get 2 cool points online

 

[Nikhil_cric]

I went to the super market today to get some essential stuff.

Hand sanitizers were cleaned out. Panic buying for sure.

People were standing close to each other not aware of the risks.

Some were coughing.

Some were having pani puri.

It was like life was normal lol.

Very very few were aware of the risks imho.

Maybe situation is taken more seriously in North India and in other cities.

I was travelling to Mumbai recently and I saw a marked difference at Bangalore airport where a lot of ppl were wearing masks etc. and people looked terrified when they heard just one cough/sneeze. On the other hand, no one really seemed to care in Mumbai. This was a week ago though. Might have changed now.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

I was travelling to Mumbai recently and I saw a marked difference at Bangalore airport where a lot of ppl were wearing masks etc. and people looked terrified when they heard just one cough/sneeze. On the other hand, no one really seemed to care in Mumbai. This was a week ago though. Might have changed now.

lol.....

Surprised it was that way in Mumbai.

Probably things must have changed now but don't have much hope with these people.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

2 more cases in Bangalore city. USA and Spain returnees ...

Total count in India : 147 (132 Indians + 25 foreigners)

Looks like we will go past 150 today. Last 3 days we are seeing ~ 15 cases per day , hopefully we can sustain this rate with more tests to follow in upcoming weeks!

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

lol.....

Surprised it was that way in Mumbai.

Probably things must have changed now but don't have much hope with these people.

Yeah we have a huge mix of white + blue collar workers ... many do not care about their life so not totally surprised. Bangalore is lot more decent, educated and matured overall so caution will be more.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

"Random Sampling Not Enough": WHO Official On India Plan To Tackle Virus

New Delhi: India is at stage 2 of the coronavirus outbreak involving local transmission and the government is testing 1,000 random samples to check whether the spread has progressed to community transmission - which would mean an exponential rise in cases.

Community transmission is the stage when patients not exposed to any infected person or with no history of travel to affected countries tests positive. The patients are unable to track the source of the infection.

In response to the World Health Organisation's "test, test, test" advice to nations, India has maintained that there is no immediate need to escalate testing in the country.

However, WHO's Regional Director, in an interview to NDTV, has said random sampling is not enough to detect community transmission.

"Just random sampling is not enough to check community transmission. A comprehensive strategy is needed. Increase testing. Severe cases of respiratory issues should also be tested,"" said Poonam Khetrapal Singh, Regional Director of WHO.


"In our last letter to India we wrote that they should add private labs. The 51 accredited private labs that they are talking of right now...it will be better if even more are added," said Dr Singh.

The advice is "more and more testing", said the WHO representative.

Nearly 1,000 samples from 52 testing labs (20 from each lab) have been picked up from across India to check on community transmission. These are samples from people who have neither any travel history nor have they been in contact with anybody who has. But these people have symptoms related to respiratory issues, pneumonia and influenza like symptoms and are admitted in government hospitals.

ICMR said the first 500 samples had tested negative and results of the rest 500 samples will be out on Wednesday.

The government plans to pick up 20 samples from each lab across the country on a weekly basis to keep checking for community transmission and the government will keep changing its nationwide testing strategies based on the results, said ICMR chief Balram Bhargava.

Currently, there are 72 functioning labs across the country in the ICMR system and 49 more government labs will be active by end of this week. Officials say by the end of this week, India will have 121 labs for virus testing. While 119 of these labs will be capable of 180 tests per day, two rapid testing labs will be capable of carrying out 1,400 tests per day.

But experts worry it is far from enough.

Mass testing in other countries has led to a steep jump in the number of coronavirus cases.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/cor...fficial-on-india-plan-to-tackle-virus-2196737


---

As far as community transmission is concerned, so far results have been good. No such case.

Issue is that the sample set is very low for any conclusion.

More testing centres are needed.

What I dunno is whether India is simply trying its best and is incapable of getting more testing centres readied...or we need to get more efficient.

Where's the bottleneck is the question.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

Yeah we have a huge mix of white + blue collar workers ... many do not care about their life so not totally surprised. Bangalore is lot more decent, educated and matured overall so caution will be more.

Makes sense.

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

2 more cases in Bangalore city. USA and Spain returnees ...

Total count in India : 147 (132 Indians + 25 foreigners)

Looks like we will go past 150 today. Last 3 days we are seeing ~ 15 cases per day , hopefully we can sustain this rate with more tests to follow in upcoming weeks!

Daily new cases being steady is really good news.

By the way, you are using total count cases instead of active cases now (which imho is the better way).

See...this is why I talk about having a common standard.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

Makes sense.

How about your city and state, looks like you have almost zero cases! Lucky folks

 

[sensible-indian-fan]

How about your city and state, looks like you have almost zero cases! Lucky folks

Same mentality

1 case only for now.

Scares in trichy (there may be many but this is the one I know of).

Results not out yet. Dunno whether its due to backlog.

Hard to believe TN has only 1 case tho. Doesn't seem realistic.