Does overconfidence lead to the decline of certain teams?

mominsaigol

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I've noticed a key trend in cricket that whenever expectations are kept on a high, the team and their fans eventually receive a brutal reality check, But whenever Expectations are kept low, Miracles occur.

To best illustrate this, I've come up with a few examples.

Example 1: 2017 Champions Trophy

Pakistan before this tournament Pakistan were ranked no 9, and weren't even suppose to be in the tournament but managed to gain no 8 rank by whitewashing West Indies at the last minute.

After a brutal bashing by India in the opening game, expectations were at an all time low, yet Pakistan managed to not only win CT but also give India an even bigger thrashing then the one Pakistan themselves received in the tournament opener.

Example 2: No 1 Odi Rank for Pakistan in 2023.

In example 1, Expectations were at an all time low, but for example 2 Pakistan had reached no 1 odi rank by beating New Zealand 4-1 in an odi series.

Expectations were sky high with many believing that Pakistan were unstoppable with a fantastic pace trio followed by a world class batting order with 3 of their 7 batters being ranked in the top 10 pdi rankings.

However this was followed by a brutal asia cup thrashing by India, followed by a wc horror show where every team excluding sri lanka, Nedtherlands and Bangladesh as well as a lucky drs break from NZ due to a fakhar special, ended up butchering and battering Pakistan left and right.

Example 3: England vs Pakistan test series

Before the Bangladesh series, Everyone was convinced that Bangladesh would be whitewashed by Pakistan. This was a sentiment even Bangladesh fans shared as they did not believe they could muster a test series victory, yet Bangladesh whitewashed Pakistan.

This led to most people believing that England would whitewash Pakistan yet after a few changes and a pitch geared towards spin was doctored, Pakistan finally mustered their first win at home despite expectations being at an all time low.

Example 4: 2023 WC

After 2 brutal beatdowns at the hands of SA and India, Australia were smackdab at the bottom of the table, Most fans believed that this may be curtains for the team, and yet Australia made a comeback going on their 2nd longest win streak in history.

in the final, a victory speech wasnt even prepared for Australia as everyone believed India would thrash their competitors in the final and yet what followed was a one sided brutal Beatdown. Leading to aussie victory for the 6th time.

Example 5: 2024 WC

The constant bullying Indian fans had recieved for the past 11 years in tournaments had led them to lose all confidence in the event, So much so that even Rohit Sharma hinself started crying when his team reached the final as he himself didnt believe India could win a cup.

yet the side went unbeaten and won, with kohli who was stated to be a passenger managing to pull it off and show up in the final.

My point is, Whenever expectations have been low, The team has proceeded to win a cup or a series, But whenever Expectations have been high, the opposite has happened.

Even recently Indian fans were so in their heads on winning the cup, the possibility of getting thrashed by NZ in a test didn't even occur, yet it happened.

It seems over confidence has always led to a downfall but zero expectations lead to surprising moments on the world of Cricket.
 
This thread reminded me of a moment in the 2001 India vs Australia series. The Aussies were pretty much unstoppable at the time, being on a 16 test winning streak including the first of the series.

During the 2nd test on the fourth morning in Kolkata, they had India following on and were so confident of their victory that Slater broke out a box of cigars in the dressing room, bought one to his nose and said 'The result is so close I can smell it'.

What happened thereafter was the famous Laxman-Dravid miracle which snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. It showed Australia not to take success for granted, and since it subsequently changed the mindset around follow-ons, it was a message to all captains to not take it for granted either.
 
Another case is Rohit overconfidence on 1st test vs New Zealand, even an amateur cricket fan knows that ball will swing and seam under overcast conditions and that pitch under rain for about week. He also have great fast bowlers to exploit these conditions but instead go and take batting eventhough he is most vulnerable under those conditions.
 
Pakistan team and fans were so overconfident after 2017 CT win.
Guys like Tanvir Ahmed and Basit Ali started insulting India and indian players. He said Kohli is afraid to face Pakistan as he chose to rest in 2018 Asia cup.
India comprehensively beat Pakistan in both matches without Virat when Dhawan and Rohit smacked Amir and co.
India went on to win the tournament and guess what, Pakistan didn't even qualify for finals .


Just look at the arrogance of Tanvir Ahmed and Anchor and how calmy Gautam Gambhir destroyed them.
 
Other examples:

England in Pakistan 2005
England in Pakistan 2012
England in Pakistan 2024?
 
Pakistan team and fans were so overconfident after 2017 CT win.
Guys like Tanvir Ahmed and Basit Ali started insulting India and indian players. He said Kohli is afraid to face Pakistan as he chose to rest in 2018 Asia cup.
India comprehensively beat Pakistan in both matches without Virat when Dhawan and Rohit smacked Amir and co.
India went on to win the tournament and guess what, Pakistan didn't even qualify for finals .


Just look at the arrogance of Tanvir Ahmed and Anchor and how calmy Gautam Gambhir destroyed them.
India was overconfident during the 2017 Champions Trophy, cracking Father’s Day jokes about Pakistan and more. Pakistan simply returned the favor after winning the trophy. Kohli underperformed in the final, which led to taunts against him.

India also showed overconfidence in the well-known 'Aane Do' series, and the outcome is now history. :inti
 
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Depends. Overconfidence with arrogance, topped up with low IQ is the perfect recipe for disaster.
 
Pakistan team and fans were so overconfident after 2017 CT win.
Guys like Tanvir Ahmed and Basit Ali started insulting India and indian players. He said Kohli is afraid to face Pakistan as he chose to rest in 2018 Asia cup.
India comprehensively beat Pakistan in both matches without Virat when Dhawan and Rohit smacked Amir and co.
India went on to win the tournament and guess what, Pakistan didn't even qualify for finals .


Just look at the arrogance of Tanvir Ahmed and Anchor and how calmy Gautam Gambhir destroyed them.
You are conflating overconfidence of the fans and pundits with overconfidence of the players of the team itself.

We actually really have no way of knowing if a team is overconfident or not. It is usually just speculation by fans after a defeat to give reasons for why the team may have lost.
 
Still remember Pakistani fans boasting how India is afraid to play them after their country's backstabbing in the Kargil War, and when India ceased cricketing ties with them after that. The 2003 WC match between India and Pakistan was hyped up from a year ago, and a certain chucker making statements on that match. Still remember certain Pakistani fans claiming how that chucker would rip Sachin a new one.

We all know what happened during the match. "Awww, mere se bowling nahin ho rahi hain".
 
thats a tad oversimplification....

teams with overconfidence can potentially under-perform on crunch situations... like WC23 for India.

But Pakistan is going through a bad phase and has little do with confidence.

They are far behind the top 3 teams in terms of skills and need some long term changes( will take 5 + years of hard work to catch up).
 
Pakistan team and fans were so overconfident after 2017 CT win.
Guys like Tanvir Ahmed and Basit Ali started insulting India and indian players. He said Kohli is afraid to face Pakistan as he chose to rest in 2018 Asia cup.
India comprehensively beat Pakistan in both matches without Virat when Dhawan and Rohit smacked Amir and co.
India went on to win the tournament and guess what, Pakistan didn't even qualify for finals .


Just look at the arrogance of Tanvir Ahmed and Anchor and how calmy Gautam Gambhir destroyed them.

Hate Tanveer to the core... epitome of pak overconfidence with little substance.

They need renaissance level change in the entire society's mindset to move towards progress.
 
Overconfidence is never a good thing. Both in cricket and outside of cricket.

I think only team that can handle confidence well is Australia.
 
If we are going to dilute this and talk about overconfidence of fans and pundits as some Indians are doing to mock Pakistan then NOTHING can top when Pakistan smashed India in the T20 WC.

The god of Indian cricket and BCCI stooge Sunil Gavaskar made a bold statement at the toss that India will go big here and maybe the openers will bat the full 20 overs.

Indian businessmen on twitter were saying to make sure the Pakistanis return the coin after toss else they will use it to pay for the struggling economy.

The rest is history. An epic humiliation that led Gavaskar to declare the world cup is meaningless anyway IPL is real cricket :ROFLMAO:
 
thats a tad oversimplification....

teams with overconfidence can potentially under-perform on crunch situations... like WC23 for India.

But Pakistan is going through a bad phase and has little do with confidence.

They are far behind the top 3 teams in terms of skills and need some long term changes( will take 5 + years of hard work to catch up).
What does pakistan have anything to do with this thread? Thread is about over confidence of all teams, not Pakistan’s current bad phase.
 
We can never be sure if a team is over-confident or not. But they are, That is where things go bad. Having confidence is good but people generally have no idea that they have become overconfident.
 
We can never be sure if a team is over-confident or not. But they are, That is where things go bad. Having confidence is good but people generally have no idea that they have become overconfident.
Wdym never be sure?

It was smack dabbed in our face for pakistan and india in both asia cup 2023 and wc 2023?

Heck it was obvious for England in 2019 as well, after their loss to Sri lanka they pulled their socks up.
 
Team with "nothing to lose" attitude always have an edge if they have some talent to carry that attitude positively. Team with 'everything to lose" will always be more under pressure.
 
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