Happenstance/Luck factor in ICC knock out/crunch situations

[mikeypbadana86]

I really feel for the subcontinent(Ind/Pak) players who go through severe backlash every time their team fails to win a major ICC tournament after reaching knock out/ICC final. what we tend to overlook as fans is the significant amount of how 'weebit luck' plays in the outcome. Luck- Uncontrollable event during/prior to the match which has an impact on the outcome of the match.

In my 27 years of cricket viewing experience, I can recollect multiple ICC tournament's which had luck factor and gone in favor of teams winning/ causing heartbreak to the losers.

1996 IND VS SL semifinal

SL set a target of 251. Sachin was in terrific form with India 98 odd in 22/23 overs, well on course to win the match had sachin continued for an other 10 overss. Sachin played the ball fine(he assumed having lost sight of the ball) and instantly took on for a single, just an instinct that took him out of the crease. The wicket keeper took the bails off. From 98/2 to India ended up 120/8.

1999 Super six match AUS VS SA

AUS needed to win a must win game against SA. Gibbs took the catch of steve waugh and celebrated tad early dropping the ball to the ground. Eventually the catch was declared as not taken. Steve waugh went on to win the match

1999 semifinal AUS VS SA

last ball was a no ball which was not awarded.


2007 t20 world cup ind vs pak final

imran nazir was going great guns with 33 off 14. imran nazir was run out by robin uthappa by a superb throw /direct throw

2011 ind vs pak semi final

sachin was dropped 4 times by PAK. Easily the target would have been far lesser than 260

2019 world cup IND vs NZ.

NZ set a target of 240. Ind was set to chase. The rain gods intervened(rained all day/night after NZ innings) and the match/Indias innings got pushed to next day. The damp condition's meant, India lost 3 wickets in no time due to the weather playing a huge role

2019 world cup ENG vs NZ final

with 17 needed off last over, a throw from deep mid wicket hit benstokes bat and went to boundary. As opposed to 2 runs, additional 4 runs awarded which changed the match situation and probably tilted the match in ENG's favour.

2022 t20 world cup final

shaheen sha afridis injury during Eng's batting.

 

[Suleiman]

Yeah luck plays its part. Kismat apni apni.

England winning the toss was huge. Neither team knew what a good score would be here. Pitch was not the same as the India game, it was more a test match pitch than a t20 one. In that situation it’s best to bat second and let the other team work out that challenge.

Stokes surviving 10-20 plays and misses Vs Naseem and co. If one of those deliveries was a millimeter closer, and he was a goner.

Stokes surviving 2-3 run out chances.

Moenn top edge boundary which sealed the game. Before that you could see pressure was still there. Both Pak and Eng were nervy throughout the entire game.

And then ofc, Shaheen injury.

Did England play well? Yes, they did. But doesn’t change the above factors played their part for sure

 

[Ab Fan]

Yes..

Also add 2003 World Cup when South Africa got knocked out down to some misunderstanding of D/L. Pollock had no idea what was happening.

2015 WC semi final - Rain came and halted SA batting when ABD/Faf looked set for a 370 run total. Unfortunately, after rain, Faf got out and ABD was struggling to get his timing right due to break. Ended up a low scoring game with target reduced that allowed NZ to take more risk in their innings.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

Luck has become a bigger factor in recent years simply because the gap between teams has reduced tremendously. Luck did not matter much earlier when Australian teams were ahead of others by a ridiculous amount in terms of skill.

 

[SpiritOf1903]

Like a penalty shoot-out. It isn't luck. It takes skill and nerve

 

[jnaveen1980]

Luck does play some part to an extent. England was the favorite in 2021. were favorites in 2022 as well. They failed in 2021, Won in 2022. The only difference in 2021 they batted first. In 2022 fielded first.