How hopeful are you of an improvement in US-Pakistan relations?

[MenInG]

Personally speaking they cannot improve as long Trump is around but I could be wrong!

 

[Zahid87]

Personally speaking they cannot improve as long Trump is around but I could be wrong!

Care to elaborate why MiG?

Question is whether it all revolves around Trump. What is the reasoning behind the deteriorating relationship, and how long has the relationship been deteriorating from.

The answer to everything, unfortunately, is not Trump's ineptness.

 

[King-Misbah]

Pakistan should stay away from America ; focus on better relationships with China, Turkey, Russia and European countries.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

Pakistan should stay away from America ; focus on better relationships with China, Turkey, Russia and European countries.

Not as simple as that, the US has it's own interests in the region, one of the reasons Pakistan has always had a fairly good relationship with them is because they are prepared to facilitate American policy. If that changes, then Pakistan could just as easily be seen as a problem country, and we have all seen how those end up.

 

[MenInG]

Think we have now crossed a point where the relations cannot be the same as before.

 

[Pakistanian]

Even without Trump it's going to be very difficult for Pakistan to get close to America, even Obama never visted Pakistan. The Indian lobby is very strong over here, it permeates through politics, government, the media, industries and show business. Being anti Pakistani isn't deemed because you have fellow brown people justifying it.

 

[Saeed]

In my opinion Afghan war is a bigger factor than the President, relationship will probably improve when the Afghan war ends. But as long as the interests of both nations are at odds with each other nothing will change. The President will keep talking tough on Twitter while providing “aid” behind the scenes, Pakistan will keep accepting “aid” while bad mouthing U.S. publicly.

 

[R3verse Swing]

It's hard to say, but with Trump anything can happen.

Trump was first supportive of Pakistan, with his praise, thanking Pakistan for doing more against Terrorism : https://tribune.com.pk/story/1529648/trump-thanks-pakistan/

He then sees the circus show that is Modi and falls hook, line, and sinker, and the narrative changes, aid to be stopped etc.

So with Trump and Modi in power, I do not think relations will improve between Pakistan and USA.

 

[PakLFC]

Not hopeful at all. This would be a good thing liberating us from American hegemony and dependency. It is never wise to put most of your money in one account or eggs in one basket. There must be options in life, we should improve our relations with Russia in particular. China is already on our side. We should have relations with the American's based on mutual understanding and respect providing they reciprocate. Don't tell us what to do in Afghanistan who is our neighbour not America's.

 

[MenInG]

With Russia flexing its muscles is it time to say goodbye to special relationship with USA and look to build bridges with Russia instead?

 

[Napa]

The root of the current US hostility towards Pakistan is the refusal of the Pakistani Army/ISI to give up the Afghanistani Taliban / Haqqani network as an "asset".

Pakistan at this point sees the US losing in Afghanistan, so it is quite comfortable supporting the Taliban. Whether the US is really losing in Afghanistan is unclear. The number of US casualties in Afghanistan has fallen from a high of 711 in 2010 to 17 in 2017. So it is possible that the US could remain in Afghanistan for a decade or more.

http://icasualties.org/

On the other hand, it doesn't seem that the Taliban is getting fatigued either, and they actually control more land than they did a couple of years ago. So we seem to have reached a stalemate in Afghanistan. But this is still poison for US-Pakistani relations.

 

[sshakir411]

The Trump administration is really just a bunch of jokers. Rex Tillerson of all is the worst pick and anyone under him in the State department is too. There's numerous people in Washington who could do a better job not just with Pakistan but with all others when it comes to setting up policy. If you look at the people Obama had working on Af-Pak it was actually a good bunch who had knowledge and experience of the region. Under Trump it's all about who will agree with him.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

The root of the current US hostility towards Pakistan is the refusal of the Pakistani Army/ISI to give up the Afghanistani Taliban / Haqqani network as an "asset".

Pakistan at this point sees the US losing in Afghanistan, so it is quite comfortable supporting the Taliban. Whether the US is really losing in Afghanistan is unclear. The number of US casualties in Afghanistan has fallen from a high of 711 in 2010 to 17 in 2017. So it is possible that the US could remain in Afghanistan for a decade or more.

http://icasualties.org/

On the other hand, it doesn't seem that the Taliban is getting fatigued either, and they actually control more land than they did a couple of years ago. So we seem to have reached a stalemate in Afghanistan. But this is still poison for US-Pakistani relations.

The US casualties have fallen because they don't do much actual fighting on the ground any more. They will probably be mostly in advisory roles or providing air support for the Afghan forces who will be doing most of the actual combat missions.

 

[Napa]

The US casualties have fallen because they don't do much actual fighting on the ground any more. They will probably be mostly in advisory roles or providing air support for the Afghan forces who will be doing most of the actual combat missions.

Yes, the US is taking care not to involve its troops in ground fighting, which is why its casualties have fallen but also Taliban has gained control of a lot more land. It is a stalemate. Without ground troops the US cannot control the countryside. With US air power against it, the Taliban cannot win battles against Afghan govt troops.

The US Army has about 265 suicides a year. In comparison 17 dead in Afghanistan is a small number.

 

[MenInG]

Yes, the US is taking care not to involve its troops in ground fighting, which is why its casualties have fallen but also Taliban has gained control of a lot more land. It is a stalemate. Without ground troops the US cannot control the countryside. With US air power against it, the Taliban cannot win battles against Afghan govt troops.

The US Army has about 265 suicides a year. In comparison 17 dead in Afghanistan is a small number.

Things could change if Afghan govt & Taliban make peace

 

[Markhor]

Screw Trump, why chase after him ?

 

[Napa]

Things could change if Afghan govt & Taliban make peace

That is true. Negotiations and a compromise settlement requires that both sides realize that they cannot achieve complete victory.

I think the Afghan government is ready to compromise, as it knows without US backing it would go the way Najibullah went once the Soviet troops withdrew. The Taliban however are more likely to believe in their ability to have complete victory, especially given their religious fanaticism. It was the Taliban belief in their final victory which led them to refuse to hand over bin Laden in 2001, a decision many Taliban no doubt regret now.

If the Afghan government and the Taliban compromise and make peace, and there are no more US casualties in Afghanistan, then US and Pakistan relations will improve. Departure of Trump, in 2020 or 2024 will also probably help. Unlike other Presidents, if you mess with him, he hits back, as is also evident from his poor relations with the US media and political establishment.

 

[DW44]

With Russia flexing its muscles is it time to say goodbye to special relationship with USA and look to build bridges with Russia instead?

Russia can't replace the US. The sad thing is that Pakistan didn't even bother taking advantage of the biggest advantage an alliance with the US offers: access to their domestic market, something several developing countries have used to great effect. Off course our idiotic policymakers never bothered with the economic aspect, focusing only on getting as much military hardware subsidized by the US government as possible. Russian military gear won't be subsidized, their potential as a market is a joke compared to the US - or even a relative minnow like the UK for that matter - and lets not forget that our economy still relies heavily on the US.

Our exports are pitiful at ~8% of GDP so every last cent counts and one out of every six dollars worth of our exports go to the US. If they ever decide to muck around with that, which they have in the past when things went sideways, the pain will be very real and China, Russia or Burkina Faso will not make up for the damage done.

 

[Pakistanian]

With Russia flexing its muscles is it time to say goodbye to special relationship with USA and look to build bridges with Russia instead?

Russia doesn't have what America has - $$$ and a large Pakistani community.

 

[R3verse Swing]

Russia doesn't have what America has - $$$ and a large Pakistani community.

Though Russia doesn't have as many political enemies as USA.

Russia would be a good choice given Russia and China are buddies too.