How much will Azhar Ali score (per innings) in the upcoming series against Ireland & England?

[ahmedwaqas92]

Part 1

With too much time on my hands , I did a small review to see historically how other batsmen from our country fared in their 3rd Tours for England and then based on that can we make a similar prediction for Azhar Ali and how he might do in the upcoming games, since he’s our best Test Batsman?

For starters let’s look at Azhar’s overseas numbers for RPI (Runs per Innings) on Away Tours only! (Australia, England, South Africa, New Zealand, and West Indies)





It is extremely self-evident that Azhar (minus the hundred) he made during the third test on the 2016 English Tour has very uninspiring numbers for conditions in England while in the coming few days he will be on his third tour of the latter nation and hopefully can kick on and string in more performances – So what will he probably score in these 4 innings? For that we’ll take a look at some historic metrics for Individuals that might’ve played a few English tours themselves. (Qualification – Minimum 5000 International Test Runs for Pakistan)

Zaheer Abbas





Javed Miandad





Saleem Malik





Inzamam Ul Haq





Mohammad Yousuf

 

[ahmedwaqas92]

[Part 2

Younis Khan





Out of all these individuals Saleem Malik I believe have the most consistent numbers (for English conditions) among all the batsmen listed above. Also, both Zaheer Abbas & Mohammad Yousuf have a falling RPI in their respective third tours as compared to their overall Runs per Innings although among the people that did manage to make a mark Javed Miandad followed by Inzamam, Younis Khan and then Saleem Malik have RPIs consisting of 72.xx, 58.xx, 48.xx and 39.xx.

This leads me to believe that Azhar,if Pakistan are to do well and since he’s the best and most accomplished test batsman in the team, needs to score an RPI (Not Avg) somewhere between 45-60 to have any sort of impact on the chances of Pakistan this summer

I have also attached all the other away tours and their respective RPIs for the every preceding player as well so that we also have a reference point on how does an individual normally performs when put out of his comfort zone.

Would like to hear the thoughts of other posters on how much would Azhar score based on the above evidence!

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P.S. Among the batsmen who score 5000 runs (as the filter used above) I also stumbled upon Misbah Ul Haq’s overseas away record and compared to any of the blokes in question Misbah basically (no offence to the great man) was a tailender - His numbers are quite shocking.

Misbah Ul Haq

 

[Napa]

Interesting stats. I would say Azhar is the foundation of Pakistani Test batting, and he needs to score an average of 55 to give his country a chance. I think he is capable of doing so if he is in form. The question is, will he be in form?

 

[ahmedwaqas92]

Interesting stats. I would say Azhar is the foundation of Pakistani Test batting, and he needs to score an average of 55 to give his country a chance. I think he is capable of doing so if he is in form. The question is, will he be in form?

An average of 55 means that across the 4 innings he'd would get one Big score followed by two decent ones and then a failure (if all of them lead to dismissals). For this very reasons I choose RPI (Runs per Innings) which normalizes the data as it removes the 'not out' factor from a Batsman's metrics.

If Azhar does manage an RPI of 55+ he would be scoring more than 220 runs across four innings which could effectively be the deciding factor in the series. Also, a 55+ RPI would make him the #3 on the list of most successful Batsman from Pakistan touring England on his 3rd outing.

 

[Napa]

An average of 55 means that across the 4 innings he'd would get one Big score followed by two decent ones and then a failure (if all of them lead to dismissals). For this very reasons I choose RPI (Runs per Innings) which normalizes the data as it removes the 'not out' factor from a Batsman's metrics.

If Azhar does manage an RPI of 55+ he would be scoring more than 220 runs across four innings which could effectively be the deciding factor in the series. Also, a 55+ RPI would make him the #3 on the list of most successful Batsman from Pakistan touring England on his 3rd outing.

After Azhar, who are the next 3 Pakistani batsmen you believe will do the best? What is your guess about their averages?

 

[ahmedwaqas92]

Interesting Findings (Duck Percentages) from above.

Azhar

Likely to Score a Duck? (9.3% Overall, 15.00% Away)
Home/Away Duck Percentage (Home/Neutral - 72.73%, Away 27.27%)

Zaheer Abbas

Likely to Score a Duck? (8.06% Overall, 13.11% Away)
Home/Away Duck Percentage (Home/Neutral - 20.00%, Away 80.00%)

Javed Miandad

Likely to Score a Duck? (3.17% Overall, 5.12% Away)
Home/Away Duck Percentage (Home/Neutral - 33.33%, Away 77.77%)

Saleem Malik

Likely to Score a Duck? (7.79% Overall, 9.8% Away)
Home/Away Duck Percentage (Home/Neutral - 33.33%, Away 77.77%)

Inzamam Ul Haq

Likely to Score a Duck? (7.50% Overall, 7.5% Away)
Home/Away Duck Percentage (Home/Neutral - 60.00%, Away 40.00%)


Mohammad Yousuf

Likely to Score a Duck? (7.05% Overall, 11.29% Away)
Home/Away Duck Percentage (Home/Neutral - 36.36%, Away 63.63%)


Younis Khan

Likely to Score a Duck? (8.92% Overall, 9.85% Away)
Home/Away Duck Percentage (Home/Neutral - 63.15%, Away 36.84%)


Misbah Ul Haq

Likely to Score a Duck? (6.81% Overall, 15.90% Away)
Home/Away Duck Percentage (Home/Neutral - 22.22%, Away 77.77%)

 

[ahmedwaqas92]

After Azhar, who are the next 3 Pakistani batsmen you believe will do the best? What is your guess about their averages?

I have a lot of hope from Haris tbh (Albeit he stays fit), he could be someone who can play the crisis man if things might not go to plan so I would be happy if he did a 35+ RPI for the tour.

Asad, even though he is someone who goes missing quite a bit and I am personally quite cross with his form, can also draw from his earlier 2016 success of the same said tour where he score a brilliant hundred at the Oval (coming at the back of a pair) at #4 which helped us in winning the game eventually.

For all the Hoopla around the 'talent' of:

Babar
Sami
Imam
Usman
Talat
Faheem

and even to some extent Sarfraz, I won't be surprised if all of them turn out literally be walking wickets in these upcoming four innings. Saad Ali and Shadab are mentally tough enough to cop a few but hold their own in challenging conditions!

 

[Napa]

I have a lot of hope from Haris tbh (Albeit he stays fit), he could be someone who can play the crisis man if things might not go to plan so I would be happy if he did a 35+ RPI for the tour.

Asad, even though he is someone who goes missing quite a bit and I am personally quite cross with his form, can also draw from his earlier 2016 success of the same said tour where he score a brilliant hundred at the Oval (coming at the back of a pair) at #4 which helped us in winning the game eventually.

For all the Hoopla around the 'talent' of:

Babar
Sami
Imam
Usman
Talat
Faheem

and even to some extent Sarfraz, I won't be surprised if all of them turn out literally be walking wickets in these upcoming four innings. Saad Ali and Shadab are mentally tough enough to cop a few but hold their own in challenging conditions!

My assessment is similar to yours, I think Haris, Asad and Babar along with Azar are the ones who should be expected to perform the best. Maybe Sarfaraz will play like a captain should. I noticed that you do not rate Fakhar, who of course Indians are not likely to forget in a hurry

 

[ahmedwaqas92]

My assessment is similar to yours, I think Haris, Asad and Babar along with Azar are the ones who should be expected to perform the best.

Frankly speaking I do not rate Babar as a test player at all, I did an almost 20 odd pages long detailed assessment on our premier domestic competition (Quaid E Azam Trophy) and the lad couldn't make the final cut (which was of 40 blokes) since he hasn't actually played any amount of FC games tbh, and I started from 2014-2017 i. e. Four seasons.

Also his performances are basically non existent as well and here he is just picked on potential and what he has shown in Limited overs cricket I believe.

Maybe Sarfaraz will play like a captain should.

I agree! In the last 1.5 years he's has been getting away with it! He hasn't had a significant contribution towards a game for quite some time - he needs to show up this series or things might really start to look bad with his dodgy fitness.

I noticed that you do not rate Fakhar, who of course Indians are not likely to forget in a hurry

The only swash buckling opener that has sustained somewhat decent performances over a substantial period of time in English conditions was Jaysuriya and apart from him or maybe (Saeed Amwar/Amir Sohail)

I haven't actually seen anyone making it out without scratches while being aggressive at the top and let's be honest here, fakhar isn't even remotely as capable as Anwar (a bit closer to Sohail) and a far cry from Jaysuriya hence I might not this that strategy will work - especially during the early summer season.

 

[hadi123]

Great effort bro. He has a big role to play

 

[babajee]

The only swash buckling opener that has sustained somewhat decent performances over a substantial period of time in English conditions was Jaysuriya and apart from him or maybe (Saeed Amwar/Amir Sohail)

I haven't actually seen anyone making it out without scratches while being aggressive at the top and let's be honest here, fakhar isn't even remotely as capable as Anwar (a bit closer to Sohail) and a far cry from Jaysuriya hence I might not this that strategy will work - especially during the early summer season.

As per rumours and indirect hints it seems as though Fakhar will be batting in the middle order, if he makes the XI.

 

[Pete Rose]

Pakistan has a very meager ftp from mid 2017 till summer 2018. A blink and you will miss it series in England is going to make it even tougher for these guys. They have to get going from the first match. Thankfully once they have embarrassed themselves with a hard fought victory against Ireland in seaming conditions, they will be focused when they get to England.

 

[Hasan123]

Can't afford him to keep dead batting once set. I'm not asking him to score at a Warner like strike rate but I have seen Azhar leave half vollies and not put away full tosses when set!

Most of the best test batsmen can occupy the crease for long periods but still score at a good rate. Azhar should do well in England but the question is will it help Pakistan win games ?

Hopefully he is opening and not batting at 3.

 

[Abdullah719]

Struggling so far in the tour games.

 

[Arham_PakFan]

He'll score 200 runs over the 3 tests.

 

[coy0607]

He'll score 200 runs over the 3 tests.

that would probably be my guess.. maybe a little higher around 250

 

[hadi123]

He started the last England tour badly as well.