[VIDEOS] How would a potential US-Iran war play out?

[HussainRx8]

Hope it doesn't come to that.

But in case it does, how would it playout?

 

[KingKhanWC]

To put it simply.

USA would have to strike first and perhaps their friends will join in. Iran will respond by ensuring the strait of Hormuz is not open for tankers to pass and then launch a barrage of missiles against US bases while Hezbollah will attack Israel if it gets involved. USA will then stop the war because the encomony would be in tatters and Israel would be shaking like the cowards they are.

 

[Slog]

To put it simply.

USA would have to strike first and perhaps their friends will join in. Iran will respond by ensuring the strait of Hormuz is not open for tankers to pass and then launch a barrage of missiles against US bases while Hezbollah will attack Israel if it gets involved. USA will then stop the war because the encomony would be in tatters and Israel would be shaking like the cowards they are.

Why would US economy be in tatters when they are now the biggest oil producer and net exporter. And for their exports they only need that strait for a minuscule volume.

Iran’s economy is already in tatters due to sanctions and if anything they won’t engage

 

[Technics 1210]

Why would US economy be in tatters when they are now the biggest oil producer and net exporter. And for their exports they only need that strait for a minuscule volume.

Iran’s economy is already in tatters due to sanctions and if anything they won’t engage

It's got nothing to do with the production of oil or exports from the USA, it has everything to do with the Petrodollar.

USA has been a top producer of oil for many years, but USA continues to interfere in the ME region. Why do you think Iran has sanctions imposed on them? Iran was selling oil in Euros and in exchange for Gold.

The USA would be utterly destroyed if the USD is no longer reserve currency in the world.

 

[PetroDollars]

LOL @ US economy being in tatters, there shale industry has been in tatters for 10 years now most oil drills and left abandoned and this war will only revive it once oil prices sky rocket, boosting us economy to new levels.

This may only be one reason for US to attack them but there are many others such as iran supporting and funding shia terroists against israel and USA's wahabi allies.

 

[Slog]

LOL @ US economy being in tatters, there shale industry has been in tatters for 10 years now most oil drills and left abandoned and this war will only revive it once oil prices sky rocket, boosting us economy to new levels.

This may only be one reason for US to attack them but there are many others such as iran supporting and funding shia terroists against israel and USA's wahabi allies.

Omg what are you guys smoking?

Shale industry is in tatters? Shale industry is in a boom comparable to 2010-2014. The US production from the Permian and Eagle Ford shale has made it the largest oil producer in the world with 25+% production growth year on year in the last two years. You think the production would have been increasing if these werent economic. The US energy industry is capitalist and increases production only when profitable. It’s not like state run Saudi or Russian oil companies which follow government orders. Heck IRRs are hitting 40%+ on some of the Permian wells.

The breakevens in some regions of the Permian are under $30/bbl. From the major shale plays only the Bakken needs $60+ per barrel.

Seriously some people shouldn’t flaunt their ignorance to the world... Shale is in tatters smh *

 

[Technics 1210]

There's a difference between producer and exporter. USA might be the largest producer or oil, but it's not the largest exporter of oil.

 

[Slog]

There's a difference between producer and exporter. USA might be the largest producer or oil, but it's not the largest exporter of oil.

Who says it’s largest exporter

But it is net exporter and that is groundbreaking.

It’s no longer energy dependent on the Middle East

 

[Slog]

If there wasn’t shale production, Brent would be $100+

 

[PetroDollars]

Omg what are you guys smoking?

Shale industry is in tatters? Shale industry is in a boom comparable to 2010-2014. The US production from the Permian and Eagle Ford shale has made it the largest oil producer in the world with 25+% production growth year on year in the last two years. You think the production would have been increasing if these werent economic. The US energy industry is capitalist and increases production only when profitable. It’s not like state run Saudi or Russian oil companies which follow government orders. Heck IRRs are hitting 40%+ on some of the Permian wells.

The breakevens in some regions of the Permian are under $30/bbl. From the major shale plays only the Bakken needs $60+ per barrel.

Seriously some people shouldn’t flaunt their ignorance to the world... Shale is in tatters smh ��*

well, I'm definitely not smoking what you have been on, you have taken it to a new level.

its common sense you don't need to be an einstein, production costs in USA is almost 20-50 times higher than in the middle east, even saudi was losing billions when oil hit $30/barrel and shale producers shut down, it was way to unprofitable for them, US needs oil at $100 + a barrel to operate profitably.
are you going to continue smoking and tell me usa has a similar break-even point as the middle easten providers?

So yes please keep your ignorance to yourself

 

[PetroDollars]

There's a difference between producer and exporter. USA might be the largest producer or oil, but it's not the largest exporter of oil.

hardly makes a difference because thats got to do with US being the largest consumer on the planet and it can feed its own population with its production while a place like saudi hardly has any consumption or demand therefore there oil goes out the country.

 

[Slog]

well, I'm definitely not smoking what you have been on, you have taken it to a new level.

its common sense you don't need to be an einstein, production costs in USA is almost 20-50 times higher than in the middle east, even saudi was losing billions when oil hit $30/barrel and shale producers shut down, it was way to unprofitable for them, US needs oil at $100 + a barrel to operate profitably.
are you going to continue smoking and tell me usa has a similar break-even point as the middle easten providers?

So yes please keep your ignorance to yourself

You have lost your mind. Well actually you don’t know any better.

You should go open up investor calls and presentations for Anadarko, Chevron and the like operating in the Permian to see what the breakevens are?

American production has surged in the past 2.5 years so much so that it had gone from 6-7mn barrels per days to now beating Saudi production and reaching almost 12mn barrels per day. On the other hand WTI has been below $70 per barrel for large majority of this time and infact hovers at $50-$60 for most of it.

Just use simple logic? Why has the production been increasing so dramatically if the US producers were not very profitable? These producers are just drilling and drilling at $60 per barrel even though according to your esteemed self they need more than $100+ per barrel to be profitable.

Please don’t pull numbers out of thin air and in the future even when you don’t know facts use a bit of logic atleast

 

[Technics 1210]

Who says it’s largest exporter

But it is net exporter and that is groundbreaking.

It’s no longer energy dependent on the Middle East

I am not disagreeing, but my point in this thread is that wars in the ME are more to do with the Petrodollar than anything else. USA might not be energy dependent on the ME, but it USA is 100% dependent on the ME selling oil in USD.

 

[warcry]

The US basically carpet bombs Iran.

Iranians start pouring into neighbouring states as refugees fleeing the violence. This means That pakistan can expect masses of iranians trying to enter as illegal immigrants. If the Pakistani state was astute we would redirect them to Iran's good friend India to host the refugees. We have enough refugee problems already.

After Iran is carpet bombed, US occupation is brutal and large amounts of civilians die indiscriminately. No body says anything, The Chinese and the Russians dont have the nerve to stand up to them.

The Europeans will baaa baaa and support their American masters like the sheep they are.

The occupation of iran will be bloody and a mess. The American forces will be attacked by guerilla warriors. particulaly in the nothern mountain of iran, where supply lines will be harder for the US to maintain. It will be a bloodbath for the occupiers.

The war cost for the US will be astronomically high in men and material. perhaps 20 times as high as Afghanistan.

 

[PetroDollars]

You have lost your mind. Well actually you don’t know any better.

You should go open up investor calls and presentations for Anadarko, Chevron and the like operating in the Permian to see what the breakevens are?

American production has surged in the past 2.5 years so much so that it had gone from 6-7mn barrels per days to now beating Saudi production and reaching almost 12mn barrels per day. On the other hand WTI has been below $70 per barrel for large majority of this time and infact hovers at $50-$60 for most of it.

Just use simple logic? Why has the production been increasing so dramatically if the US producers were not very profitable? These producers are just drilling and drilling at $60 per barrel even though according to your esteemed self they need more than $100+ per barrel to be profitable.

Please don’t pull numbers out of thin air and in the future even when you don’t know facts use a bit of logic atleast

) ) )

what are you, the economist comedian.

American production was dead in 2015, with oil prices jumping from $30 to $70+ of course they were going to try and revive those dead drills but it didn't last very long many have already shut down in the last 6 months, that was a temp surge what happens with oil prices being unstable.

please stop making absurd statements, if you still want to, at least put a disclaimer in your posts that your only an economist comedian and we shouldn't take you seriously.

 

[KingKhanWC]

Why would US economy be in tatters when they are now the biggest oil producer and net exporter. And for their exports they only need that strait for a minuscule volume.

Iran’s economy is already in tatters due to sanctions and if anything they won’t engage

Iran is not Iraq, it will engage as it has little lose. If it retaliates there will be more chance it will come out with a better deal or left alone in the future. The war will likely continue for a few weeks at the minimum, causing oil prices to rise over $120 per barrel if not much much more. But even at this figure the world economy will suffer inc the US economy. See article below.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/20/investing/oil-prices-iran-us-drone/index.html

 

[Slog]

) ) )

what are you, the economist comedian.

American production was dead in 2015, with oil prices jumping from $30 to $70+ of course they were going to try and revive those dead drills but it didn't last very long many have already shut down in the last 6 months, that was a temp surge what happens with oil prices being unstable.

please stop making absurd statements, if you still want to, at least put a disclaimer in your posts that your only an economist comedian and we shouldn't take you seriously.

You are beyond help

Please check data

There’s no thing as dead drills. Have you spent even a day in the industry

Well I know you’re feeling very stupid st your ignorance but it’s ok. Don’t worry. People won’t judge here

 

[PetroDollars]

You are beyond help

Please check data

There’s no thing as dead drills. Have you spent even a day in the industry

Well I know you’re feeling very stupid st your ignorance but it’s ok. Don’t worry. People won’t judge here

Do you even understand yourself?

data is freely available, it's the 21st century. What era are you living in with your lies?

Keep lying if that gives you self satisfaction, however, no one is going to believe you but if it keeps satisfying yourself go ahead, use this forum for self-satisfaction, but you probably know the realities are quite different to what goes on in your delusional mind.

 

[Slog]

Do you even understand yourself?

data is freely available, it's the 21st century. What era are you living in with your lies?

Keep lying if that gives you self satisfaction, however, no one is going to believe you but if it keeps satisfying yourself go ahead, use this forum for self-satisfaction, but you probably know the realities are quite different to what goes on in your delusional mind.

Don’t worry. People aren’t judging your stupidity and ignorance. Just go EIA website and learn about production growth to educate yourself and you’ll be fine.

 

[The_Odd_One]

Destruction of Iran in 2 days and I am being lenient here.

 

[PakLFC]

The USA will attack Iran on it's own without NATO support. Iran will hit back targeting America's interests in the Middle East and threatening to attack Israel as well. Russia and China will also get involved as well by openly supporting Iran at which point either America will pull back or we'll face WW3. On it's own Iran is no match for America even if they are much more powerful then any Arab military.

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The White House's national security council says the U.S. is aware of reports that Iranian forces have seized a British oil tanker and they will continue to work with allies and partners to "defend against Iran's malign behaviour"</p>— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1152288513603309568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[msaaim89]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The White House's national security council says the U.S. is aware of reports that Iranian forces have seized a British oil tanker and they will continue to work with allies and partners to "defend against Iran's malign behaviour"</p>— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1152288513603309568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Obviously our very own British leadership is responsible for this as they decided it was perfectly OK yo capture a much larger Iranian oil ship in Spanish waters.
[MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION], thoughts?

 

[troodon]

The mullah regime of Iran is hell bent on destroying whatever is left of once great Persia.

 

[msaaim89]

The mullah regime of Iran is hell bent on destroying whatever is left of once great Persia.

?

It's *** for tat. Aren't you aware of what happened just this very month when an Iranian oil tanker was captured?

 

[KingKhanWC]

The mullah regime of Iran is hell bent on destroying whatever is left of once great Persia.

Not as bad as the Pandit regime in charge of India who is destroying a 3rd world nation, it's all relative.

On topic.

It also seems Trump has lied about shooting down an Irannian drone. Iran says all of it's drones came back in good health.

 

[troodon]

Not as bad as the Pandit regime in charge of India who is destroying a 3rd world nation, it's all relative.

On topic.

It also seems Trump has lied about shooting down an Irannian drone. Iran says all of it's drones came back in good health.

We can at least have elections and kick out the Hindu extremists. But hope does Iran have?

 

[msaaim89]

Not as bad as the Pandit regime in charge of India who is destroying a 3rd world nation, it's all relative.

On topic.

It also seems Trump has lied about shooting down an Irannian drone. Iran says all of it's drones came back in good health.

Of course Trump is going to lie.

Didn't he ask Iran to pretend an air strike happened just to save the US from an earlier embarrassment of a struck down drone. Iran decline. Obviously now, to save face they've got to make something up for the gullible US public.

 

[blackanhyellow]

It would be a swift invasion.

Iran would fall within a matter of days.

However, the aftermath of such an event would have lasting effects.

This is terrible news for Pakistan, because we share a border with Iran.

 

[Madplayer]

Is the Mullah regime in Iran really that bad???? Or is it just the classic case of the west demonizing a muslim country?

Personally whatever little i have read of them, i can only see a regime trying to maintain sovereignty of their state against all odds and who have done a tremendous job in face of crippling sanctions. Any other nation would have collapsed in face of such sanctions.

What exactly is the problem here? Is it about women's rights? Are the women complaining? Is it about enforcing democracy there? Is it necessary that democracy be enforced in every nation? Why not start with Saudi Arabia? Is it about them supporting terrorists in other nations? But lets be honest, many other powers do that too.

I want to know the views of PPers well versed in this subject because i certainly am not an expert on this subject.

 

[Madplayer]

It would be a swift invasion.

Iran would fall within a matter of days.

However, the aftermath of such an event would have lasting effects.

This is terrible news for Pakistan, because we share a border with Iran.

It cant be a swift invasion. Have you looked at the terrain?

 

[blackanhyellow]

It cant be a swift invasion. Have you looked at the terrain?

It would be a swift invasion, Tehran would be invaded in no time. Iranian central government would fall just like Saddam's government did.

Yes, afterwards, loyalists to the current Iranian regime would carry on resistance. But at that point, the country is already destroyed.

 

[blackanhyellow]

Is the Mullah regime in Iran really that bad???? Or is it just the classic case of the west demonizing a muslim country?

Personally whatever little i have read of them, i can only see a regime trying to maintain sovereignty of their state against all odds and who have done a tremendous job in face of crippling sanctions. Any other nation would have collapsed in face of such sanctions.

What exactly is the problem here? Is it about women's rights? Are the women complaining? Is it about enforcing democracy there? Is it necessary that democracy be enforced in every nation? Why not start with Saudi Arabia? Is it about them supporting terrorists in other nations? But lets be honest, many other powers do that too.

I want to know the views of PPers well versed in this subject because i certainly am not an expert on this subject.

All Iranians I have met are not very religious at all. They very much dislike the mullah regime.

However, this is probably skewed by the fact that all of the Iranians I have met are in the West. I dont know what the ones in Iran feel.

More than anything, its the fact that people get fed up of unemployment, low living standards, etc... more than women having to wear hijab. The sanctions on iran are frustrating the civilian population, so they are more likely to dislike their regime. Thats the part of the goal of sanctions by the United States anyways.

 

[PetroDollars]

Is the Mullah regime in Iran really that bad???? Or is it just the classic case of the west demonizing a muslim country?

Personally whatever little i have read of them, i can only see a regime trying to maintain sovereignty of their state against all odds and who have done a tremendous job in face of crippling sanctions. Any other nation would have collapsed in face of such sanctions.

What exactly is the problem here? Is it about women's rights? Are the women complaining? Is it about enforcing democracy there? Is it necessary that democracy be enforced in every nation? Why not start with Saudi Arabia? Is it about them supporting terrorists in other nations? But lets be honest, many other powers do that too.

I want to know the views of PPers well versed in this subject because i certainly am not an expert on this subject.

it's terrible, even there army has a separate Islamic faction, which is extremely powerfull.

Even though Saudis are just as bad or even worse, Iran is funding and supporting terrorism against Arab states, you might be right about the west demonizing them but that's probably to appease their Wahabi oil friends and most importantly Israel is not liking Irans funding of Hamas and Hezbollah,

Iran has dropped a level to low that its even collaborating with India against Pakistan and this may be the best chance Americans and jews have to use all Arab and Muslim nations to join them to destroy Iran.

The problem for Pakistan and most important question is, what will follow the war, would US just replace them with another puppet gov like in afgan which causes even more problems here.

Pakistan needs to most importantly start focusing on securing its borders and fence the whole west region from gwadar all the way to china ASAP.

 

[PetroDollars]

It cant be a swift invasion. Have you looked at the terrain?

They will probably enter, cause small amount of havoc and leave once the gov and army has fallen, my prediction is they will leave it in a worse state then they left afgan after the soviet war and iraq because Al-Baghdadi and isis and other groups in afgan will enter and a major shia sunni war will erupt inside the iranian borders which can last years and year and result in a situation worse than Syria.

 

[Madplayer]

It would be a swift invasion, Tehran would be invaded in no time. Iranian central government would fall just like Saddam's government did.

Yes, afterwards, loyalists to the current Iranian regime would carry on resistance. But at that point, the country is already destroyed.

All military style reports which i have read point to the fact that Iran has a tremendous advantage in terms of natural barriers to invasion. The terrain is tough and any invasion would take time. The technological superiority of US and its allies would obviously make them successful in an invasion eventually but it certainly wont be as swift as you are thinking.

 

[Madplayer]

All Iranians I have met are not very religious at all. They very much dislike the mullah regime.

However, this is probably skewed by the fact that all of the Iranians I have met are in the West. I dont know what the ones in Iran feel.

More than anything, its the fact that people get fed up of unemployment, low living standards, etc... more than women having to wear hijab. The sanctions on iran are frustrating the civilian population, so they are more likely to dislike their regime. Thats the part of the goal of sanctions by the United States anyways.

Interesting points. So the people's will is broken and they begin disliking their own government even if they know that its external influence (sanctions) which are causing them problems. I guess thats part of the human nature that the primary goal is survival.

 

[Madplayer]

it's terrible, even there army has a separate Islamic faction, which is extremely powerfull.

Even though Saudis are just as bad or even worse, Iran is funding and supporting terrorism against Arab states, you might be right about the west demonizing them but that's probably to appease their Wahabi oil friends and most importantly Israel is not liking Irans funding of Hamas and Hezbollah,

Iran has dropped a level to low that its even collaborating with India against Pakistan and this may be the best chance Americans and jews have to use all Arab and Muslim nations to join them to destroy Iran.

The problem for Pakistan and most important question is, what will follow the war, would US just replace them with another puppet gov like in afgan which causes even more problems here.

Pakistan needs to most importantly start focusing on securing its borders and fence the whole west region from gwadar all the way to china ASAP.

Iran has been funding terrorism in Arab states for sure. And the Indian angle which you mentioned is extremely disappointing. However, i believe Iran is doing same as others in the region which include the Arab states. The Arabs have a problem with the Shia majority state and they want to be the bigger players in the region. Iran's oil reserves can be a problem for the Wahabi regime in Saudi Arabia so they top are trying to destabilize Iran. Overall, i believe nobody is innocent here but only the ones closer to super powers will be portrayed as the good guys.

 

[Madplayer]

They will probably enter, cause small amount of havoc and leave once the gov and army has fallen, my prediction is they will leave it in a worse state then they left afgan after the soviet war and iraq because Al-Baghdadi and isis and other groups in afgan will enter and a major shia sunni war will erupt inside the iranian borders which can last years and year and result in a situation worse than Syria.

Thats a possibility.

And also, dont forget Iran is looked at as the fortress of Shia Islam by millions of Shias. And Shias are more extreme in defending their own. They will certainly not keep quiet. If a war takes place and Iran is obliterated, I expect suicide bombings and militant attacks to increase tremendously in western nations.

 

[PetroDollars]

Iran has been funding terrorism in Arab states for sure. And the Indian angle which you mentioned is extremely disappointing. However, i believe Iran is doing same as others in the region which include the Arab states. The Arabs have a problem with the Shia majority state and they want to be the bigger players in the region. Iran's oil reserves can be a problem for the Wahabi regime in Saudi Arabia so they top are trying to destabilize Iran. Overall, i believe nobody is innocent here but only the ones closer to super powers will be portrayed as the good guys.

Like I said Saudis are just as bad however Irans continued support of terror in pak and meddling in Balochistan affairs is frustrating. There are no good sides but you have to chose one and for pak, who would it be?

A difficult one as you need good neighbors and even though the iranian leadership as been terrible with us can you gamble with a regime change seeing what happened in afganistan and iraq which bought monsters bigger than the previous ones.

 

[PetroDollars]

Thats a possibility.

And also, dont forget Iran is looked at as the fortress of Shia Islam by millions of Shias. And Shias are more extreme in defending their own. They will certainly not keep quiet. If a war takes place and Iran is obliterated, I expect suicide bombings and militant attacks to increase tremendously in western nations.

of course it will, Shia's are the creators of modern Islamic terrorism which dates back to the Ismailis to Hassan bin Sabah. This war in the middle east is not going to get better anytime soon and is only going to worsen in the coming future

 

[Napa]

1. Trump is a very practical man. One doesn't make billions and create successful brands in at least 3 different industries without having a good sense of how the real world works.

2. He will not launch any major ground invasion of Iran which will be costly for the US in terms of lives.

3. His strategy is to choke Iran economically. He hopes this will lead to either the current regime making concessions for economic relief, or the people revolting and overthrowing the current regime.

4. The current Iranian actions require a US response. If Iran is to be attacked I believe Trump will need two things A) Iran is seen as the provocateur, so that Trump is not blamed for the war 2) it is close enough to Nov 2020 (a few months) so that he gets a popularity bump that doesn't fade by election time. US response will likely be like "Operation Praying Mantis", that is air strikes rather than ground action.

5. All this talk of Iran getting together with India is nonsense. I will believe it when the Iranian Army comes to blows with the Pakistani Army, everything else is irrelevant.

 

[Yossarian]

The question that should be asked (and wasn't in the case of Afghanistan and especially Iraq) is what happens after the initial fighting stops.

Iran can't/won't be invaded and taken over in the manner of Afghanistan and Iraq. There will still be 80+ million Iranian around, now with an even bigger grudge against the USA, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (I'm discounting Israel because that is just a red herring. Israel will never attack Iran without the USA and the Arabs facilitating it -just look at the logistics involved, especially in terms of flying over Arab countries territories and evading their USA supplied, and often operated, radar and defence systems).

It is not like even the days of post WW2 where Germany and Japan were defeated and then governed by the USA.

Attacking Iran and destroying their nuclear, oil, energy and main manufacturing facilities, along with their air force and navy, using cruise missiles and long range bombers, is the easy part. It's what happens next, and in the years to follow, that is the real issue.

 

[Abdullah719]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BREAKING?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BREAKING</a> Iran: Trump announces 'highest sanctions ever imposed on a country' <a href="https://t.co/mhw2KK6xBH">pic.twitter.com/mhw2KK6xBH</a></p>— AFP news agency (@AFP) <a href="https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1175062686960357381?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 20, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[KingKhanWC]

Sanctions are a cowards way out.

Yanks and Saudis claim Iran attacked their oil plants and this is an act of war but wont use any military action against them. If it was a some farmers in Afghanistan the Yanks would be yipee yeeah.

 

[Bewal Express]

There are no good guys- the Saudi- American nexus is evil but Iran is just as bad for causing problems in the Muslim world. In these present tensions the Iranians have been on the back foot and are mostly the innocent party but they have realised that Trump is not willing to start any war so they have been emboldened. The only problem with this tactic is that after the elections if Trump is still in power their may well be a price to pay.

 

[PetroDollars]

1. Trump is a very practical man. One doesn't make billions and create successful brands in at least 3 different industries without having a good sense of how the real world works.

2. He will not launch any major ground invasion of Iran which will be costly for the US in terms of lives.

3. His strategy is to choke Iran economically. He hopes this will lead to either the current regime making concessions for economic relief, or the people revolting and overthrowing the current regime.

4. The current Iranian actions require a US response. If Iran is to be attacked I believe Trump will need two things A) Iran is seen as the provocateur, so that Trump is not blamed for the war 2) it is close enough to Nov 2020 (a few months) so that he gets a popularity bump that doesn't fade by election time. US response will likely be like "Operation Praying Mantis", that is air strikes rather than ground action.

5. All this talk of Iran getting together with India is nonsense. I will believe it when the Iranian Army comes to blows with the Pakistani Army, everything else is irrelevant.

) ) )

You have a lot to learn

 

[sweep_shot]

Iran has cancelled the accreditation of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspector who was prevented from entering a nuclear facility last week.

It said the woman triggered an alarm at the gate to the Natanz uranium enrichment plant, raising fears that she was carrying "suspicious material".

The IAEA disagreed with the account and said the inspector was also temporarily prevented from leaving Iran.

It was apparently the first such case since the 2015 nuclear deal was signed.

Meanwhile, the US said Iran might be "positioning itself to have the option of a rapid nuclear break-out" - the time it would take to acquire enough fissile material for one bomb - after it suspended another commitment under the accord.

On Thursday, uranium enrichment resumed at the underground Fordo facility. Enriched uranium can be used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons.

It is the fourth such step Iran, which has insisted its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful, has taken in response to the sanctions reinstated by US President Donald Trump when he abandoned the nuclear deal last year.

Under the accord, Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow in international inspectors in return for the lifting of economic sanctions.

Mr Trump wants to force Iran to negotiate a new agreement that would place indefinite curbs on its nuclear programme and also halt its development of ballistic missiles. But Iran has so far refused.

The other parties to the deal - the UK, France, Germany, China and Russia - have tried to keep it alive. But the sanctions have caused Iran's oil exports to collapse, the value of its currency to plummet and the inflation rate to soar.

What happened with the inspector?
At a special meeting of the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors in Vienna on Thursday, Iranian ambassador Kazem Gharibabadi said the inspector was denied entry to Natanz because alarms went off during a routine security check.

The check involved "a special chemical detector that can find a range of explosive materials containing nitrates", he added.

The inspector then "sneaked off" to the toilet while she was waiting for a further security check, he said.

"There was no doubt that suspicious material was involved."

Mr Gharibabadi denied reports that the inspector had her travel documents taken and was briefly detained before she left Iran.

US ambassador Jackie Wolcott told the meeting: "The detention of an IAEA inspector in Iran is an outrageous provocation."

"All board members need to make clear now and going forward that such actions are completely unacceptable, will not be tolerated, and must have consequences."

An IAEA spokesperson said the inspector had been "temporarily prevented from leaving Iran" and that Acting Director General Cornel Feruta had made clear that this was "not acceptable and should not occur".

"Based on the information available to us, the agency does not agree with Iran's characterisation of the situation involving the inspector, who was carrying out official safeguard duties in Iran. The agency will continue to consult with Iran with a view to clarifying the situation," the spokesperson added.

The board of governors also discussed the "detection of potentially undeclared nuclear material" in Iran.

Iran has reportedly failed to co-operate with an investigation into how traces of uranium were found at a site in the Turquzabad area of Tehran, where Israel said there was a "secret atomic warehouse".

Israeli officials reiterated claims on Thursday that Iran has continued to conceal nuclear material dating from the previous nuclear programme, Middle East correspondent Tom Bateman reports.

The three Israeli officials, speaking at a briefing attended by the BBC, said the tests showed that uranium had been stored at the site, but not in a form that could be used for a weapon.

Why does the US fear an Iranian 'break-out'?
Before 2015 Iran had two plants - Natanz and Fordo - where uranium hexafluoride gas was fed into centrifuges to separate out the most fissile isotope, U-235.

The 2015 deal saw Iran agree only to produce low-enriched uranium, which has a 3-4% concentration of U-235 and can be used to produce fuel for nuclear power plants. Weapons-grade uranium is 90% enriched or more.

Iran also agreed to install no more than 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient centrifuges at Natanz until 2026, and not to carry out any enrichment at Fordo until 2031. Fordo's 1,044 centrifuges were supposed to spin without gas being injected.

The head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) said on Monday that the number of advanced IR-6 centrifuges operating at Natanz had doubled to 60.

Early on Thursday, the AEOI began injecting uranium hexafluoride into Fordo's centrifuges in the presence of the IAEA, spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said. By Saturday, he added, it would be producing 4.5% enriched uranium.

President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that Iran was aware of the "sensitivity" of the other parties to the deal regarding enrichment at Fordo, which was built in secret about 90m (300ft) under a mountain to shield it from air strikes. But he stressed that the step could be reversed if they upheld their commitments.

Following the resumption of enrichment at Fordo, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: "Iran's expansion of proliferation-sensitive activities raises concerns that Iran is positioning itself to have the option of a rapid nuclear break-out."

"It is now time for all nations to reject this regime's nuclear extortion and take serious steps to increase pressure."

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50329647.

 

[PetroDollars]

it's terrible, even there army has a separate Islamic faction, which is extremely powerfull.

Even though Saudis are just as bad or even worse, Iran is funding and supporting terrorism against Arab states, you might be right about the west demonizing them but that's probably to appease their Wahabi oil friends and most importantly Israel is not liking Irans funding of Hamas and Hezbollah,

Iran has dropped a level to low that its even collaborating with India against Pakistan and this may be the best chance Americans and jews have to use all Arab and Muslim nations to join them to destroy Iran.

The problem for Pakistan and most important question is, what will follow the war, would US just replace them with another puppet gov like in afgan which causes even more problems here.

Pakistan needs to most importantly start focusing on securing its borders and fence the whole west region from gwadar all the way to china ASAP.

I said this in july and it looks like Pak gov. have been sleeping and nothing has been done on the iranian border front.

Iran will attack/retaliate by next week Saturday, 11th, i believe but then it will be too late.

 

[The_Odd_One]

Iran has no chance against the greatest military of all time. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

Let’s not forget that Israel, the UK, and Saudi will also team up with the US.

 

[The_Odd_One]

To put it simply.

USA would have to strike first and perhaps their friends will join in. Iran will respond by ensuring the strait of Hormuz is not open for tankers to pass and then launch a barrage of missiles against US bases while Hezbollah will attack Israel if it gets involved. USA will then stop the war because the encomony would be in tatters and Israel would be shaking like the cowards they are.

In what alternate reality do you live? The same coward Israel has won every war against the Arab world.

 

[Ronaldo7]

Iran has no chance against the greatest military of all time. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

Let’s not forget that Israel, the UK, and Saudi will also team up with the US.

This is what happens when you look solely at figures.

Iran is a very hard country to conquer and they also have a very good military. They recently carried out exercises with China and Russia.

 

[The_Odd_One]

This is what happens when you look solely at figures.

Iran is a very hard country to conquer and they also have a very good military. They recently carried out exercises with China and Russia.

Iran can’t withstand battle on 2 fronts. Saudi will finance the war. No matter how you look at it, It’s a dire situation for Iran.

 

[Manager101]

Putting all the hypocrisy of American brainwashed agenda aside, the attack on Iran's top commander/General was simply a declaration/act of war and it has officially commenced a war between USA and Iran.

 

[PetroDollars]

Putting all the hypocrisy of American brainwashed agenda aside, the attack on Iran's top commander/General was simply a declaration/act of war and it has officially commenced a war between USA and Iran.

more of a pearl habour actually, USA is just waiting patiently now, hoping and praying that iran retaliates, so the war can begin.

My advice for everyone here: BUY SOME OIL CONTRACTS. NOW!

 

[rockyboy2018]

May I know why some experts on Pakistan are always quoting these hadits of persians losing their lives in gtreat numbers and then arabs and then army will march from khorasan area or whatever story that is.

Can anyone bring me up to speed regarding that religious story in the context of Iran-USA war ??

 

[Mamoon]

The real question is - will Pakistan play the role of USA’s mercenary for the third time?

 

[amax]

not sure what you are trying to say ask

US is the most powerful fighting force in the history of mankind , iran will be routed , though ground invasion of iran would be more costly than iraq, because of large terrain also iranian are very patriotic and more glued to each other.

 

[Savak]

Americans don't have the balls to indulge in gurreilla warfare, their technology and machinery becomes redundant in street to street battles.

 

[Gilly]

Americans don't have the balls to indulge in gurreilla warfare, their technology and machinery becomes redundant in street to street battles.

Who teaches people that it takes balls to indulge in gorilla warfare. You have to be stupid and unintelligent to indulge in gorilla warfare.

 

[Ronaldo7]

Who teaches people that it takes balls to indulge in gorilla warfare. You have to be stupid and unintelligent to indulge in gorilla warfare.

Considering how much effort and time it takes to indulge in Guerilla warfare, it does take courage

 

[saeedhk]

Complete annihilation of Iran with the US suffering a few dozen casualties.

That being said, Iran is the only Muslim country that has dignity and self-respect. The rest of the Muslim states are satellite states of the U.S.

 

[PetroDollars]

Lots of people wanting pakistan to be neutral, its impossible. Pakistan will have to choose a side - its inevitable because these iranian generals are mad, they will consider pakistans silence an attack on them. Its quite obvious looking at the way things are moving, iran will take out there anger on all sunni states instead of USA.

 

[JaDed]

Lots of people wanting pakistan to be neutral, its impossible. Pakistan will have to choose a side - its inevitable because these iranian generals are mad, they will consider pakistans silence an attack on them. Its quite obvious looking at the way things are moving, iran will take out there anger on all sunni states instead of USA.

Lol USA considers silence to be someone that is against them not Iran.

 

[PetroDollars]

Lol USA considers silence to be someone that is against them not Iran.

Iran has just threatened any nation that does not condemn the killing of Sulimani, basically sending a message to all muslim nations, your either with us or them.

 

[JaDed]

Iran has just threatened any nation that does not condemn the killing of Sulimani, basically sending a message to all muslim nations, your either with us or them.

Can you provide the link and UN is not entire world..

 

[Savak]

Iran has just threatened any nation that does not condemn the killing of Sulimani, basically sending a message to all muslim nations, your either with us or them.

Lol at anyone taking Iran's threats seriously. When the USA threatens a country you notice, when Iran threatens a country, you laugh. In a conventional warfare Iran will be flattened in a heartbeat, it is in their best interests to somehow get the US to send their troops in and sucker them in a gureilla war.

 

[The_Odd_One]

The real question is - will Pakistan play the role of USA’s mercenary for the third time?

Why not, Iran is no friend of Pakistan and it is time to get those $$$ back from Trump.

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

How will Iran exactly retaliate? They have no realistic chance , except China, Russia & India who if fight collectively can counter US with sheer numbers/ machines else no other nation has even remote chance against their F35's and F22 raptors....

 

[AamchiMumbaikar]

On a side note, what is the feud between Pak and Iran, why are the two nations on not so friendly terms ?

 

[emranabbas]

On a side note, what is the feud between Pak and Iran, why are the two nations on not so friendly terms ?

Nothing serious we just don't like neighbours

 

[WhenSultansBowled]

On a side note, what is the feud between Pak and Iran, why are the two nations on not so friendly terms ?

Iran dislikes Pakistan because we are USA's (read Israel and Saudi Arabia) local mercenary.

History backs this fact.

I know it's twisted, but that's my understanding.

 

[WhenSultansBowled]

Who teaches people that it takes balls to indulge in gorilla warfare. You have to be stupid and unintelligent to indulge in gorilla warfare.

FTFY.

When facing a superior enemy:

You have to be stupid and unintelligent to NOT indulge in gorilla warfare.

Check this ~1000 minutes documentary, it's rated 9.1/10 for a reason

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt1877514/

 

[Waleed93]

Iran will get destroyed in the matter of a few days. The USA will be massively supported by European countries as always, and the likes of Saudi Arabia will not think twice before attacking Iran.

Iran will basically fight without any support, and if, God forbid, an all out war is declared, I can see Iran becoming the second version of Afghanistan.

 

[Gilly]

FTFY.

When facing a superior enemy:

You have to be stupid and unintelligent to NOT indulge in gorilla warfare.

Check this ~1000 minutes documentary, it's rated 9.1/10 for a reason

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt1877514/

America is not going to enter Iran, they are just going to wipe out Iran's oil refineries and then let Iran crumble. They are not going to make a regime change just bomb everything that Iran has.

 

[KingKhanWC]

America is not going to enter Iran, they are just going to wipe out Iran's oil refineries and then let Iran crumble. They are not going to make a regime change just bomb everything that Iran has.

America should be sending troops to Australia to help fight the fires! Of course they wont enter Iran, they would be slaughtered. They will not try to wipe away Irans oil as the oil price will rise. They may have dreams of taking their oil, as recently Iran has discovered another $50 billion barrels.

 

[Savak]

If the US could suffer around 5,000 casualties and 30,000 injuries in Iraq, i estimate they will suffer 15,000 casualties and 100,000 injuries in Iran should they launch a ground invasion.

 

[JaDed]

I was just seeing the Dec 26th news of Vice on Libya and holyyy refineries destroyed...
and people over there are “ yea we fought against Qadaffi but if he was alive we will fight for him now “ lmao absolute morons.

Worst is atleast countries like Qatar,Uae and now Saudi have invested in a future without oil, countries like Libya will end up being the worst places once oil industry is finished.

Iran should stay away ,get a central bank and put money into their future.

 

[khanz141]

I don't think Iran is that stupid to attack any US target head on and invite a direct attack on it's soil.

The battlefield is going to be Iraq and Syria where all countries are already involved. Iran has all the support there of the government, militias, Russia, and Turkey. Most likely they will try to do something there instead.

 

[PetroDollars]

I don't think Iran is that stupid to attack any US target head on and invite a direct attack on it's soil.

The battlefield is going to be Iraq and Syria where all countries are already involved. Iran has all the support there of the government, militias, Russia, and Turkey. Most likely they will try to do something there instead.

What can they do what they haven't in the last 5 years, Iran will get support from russia and china but all air superiority will belong to the US.