It's highly unlikely that India is going to win the finals assuming they move past NZ is semis.
The World Cup is replete with history that the team that faced a challenging semifinals has gone on to win the World. Ever since I started following cricket, I can recall this in almost every World Cup.
1992 - Pakistan beat a really tough opponent in NZ while England got a walkover against South Africa. Result - Pak thrashed England in finals
1996 - Sri Lanka beat a tough India in their home ground while Australia moved past a self exploding West Indies. Result - Sri Lanka thrashed Australia in finals
1999 - Pak went past an un-challenging New Zealand while Australia moved past South Africa in probably the greatest world cup match ever. Result - Australia thrashed Pakistan in finals
2003 - India faced a timid & weak Kenya whereas, Australia faced a tough Sri Lanka. Result - Australia thrashed India in finals
2007 - Sri Lanka defeated an un-challenging New Zealand while, Australia beat a much tougher South Africa. Result - Australia thrashed an insipid Sri Lanka in the finals
2011 - Sri-Lanka goes past clueless New Zealand while, India faced a challenging Pakistan. Result - India thrashed Sri Lanka in the Semis
2015 - New Zealand beats struggling South Africa while, Australia finally beats an undefeated India. Result - Australia defeats New Zealand.
Conclusion - Team that faces an easy semifinal walks complacent whereas, the team facing a tough semis is usually battle hardened for the finals. While, Australia & England will be facing a tough opponent in eachother, India will face a New Zealand which is on a downward curve & one that sneaked into semis due to carefully crafted campaign & good amount of luck. Really doubt if India will win the finals.