Cpt. Rishwat
ODI Captain
- Joined
- May 8, 2010
- Runs
- 45,438
This is a very good post - asking some sensible questions as I did as well.
My answer is - there's simply just no way for the US to succeed unless there is a massive escalation and even that won't be enough.
Option 1: Mobilize massive forces - the US would need more than 1 million soldiers and it would take then more than 1 year to get the logistics in place. Chances of success - slim given Iran is like Vietnam but on steroids. He doesn't have the public support for this either.
Option 2: Use a tactical nuke - I wouldn't put it past them given how badly they're doing. But chances of success are again slim because Iran has enough material to quickly put together a small rudimentary warhead together and launch on one of their missiles and attack Israel.
Option 3: Declare victory and leave. It will be considered humiliation to those who understand - but better this than option 1 and 2.
I think the prospect of the world economy grinding to a halt if the US can't finish Iran quickly will see the Americans go for option 3. Trump likes to think he knows the art of the deal, so he was probably applying his dealer logic in a gamble that he could win big instead of being seen as an Epstein island loser.
The rest of the world has genuine business to run, and it's in danger of grinding to a halt if Iran doesn't take the bait.

