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Is India under-reporting COVID-19 deaths?

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A few press outlets reporting this.

Today heard an interview with a GOI official who explained it by saying that total deaths are correct - but being mis-classed as non COVID or vice versa.
 
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It’s not just these and other credible international publications. It’s people on the ground too.

The question is not whether India is massively under reporting its deaths. The question is how intentional is this misrepresentation. This Indian government is know for manipulating numbers (ask any credible economist worth his salt) to make itself look good so if someone says that they are under reporting Covid death counts as part of a plan then it won’t be the most unbelievable conspiracy theory ever
 
Normal death rate in India translates to around 28,000 deaths/day. We are seeing around 2,500-2,800 Covid deaths/day. Such a small increase in daily deaths in the country would not lead to crematoria being overrun, as we have seen so far.
 
It seems the government is only counting those who have died in hospitals, but not those outside medical centres, in ambulances awaiting treatment or in the homes of those unable to travel to hospitals or clinics.

India is huge as is its population, it would not be a surprise if the authorities were unable to accurately collect data on cases and deaths. Unless, of course, the government is deliberately suppressing the numbers in order to present a better picture than actually exists.

Across social media the Modi government is being blamed for its abject failure to prepare for this catastrophe, whilst he is busy trying to bully tech giants into removing criticism of him.

Good to see, though, Europe, the US, UK, China, Pakistan and so on offering to help and sending essential supplies. We are one in our humanity when there is suffering on such a massive scale.
 
Normal death rate in India translates to around 28,000 deaths/day. We are seeing around 2,500-2,800 Covid deaths/day. Such a small increase in daily deaths in the country would not lead to crematoria being overrun, as we have seen so far.

28,000 deaths per day,in non covid times ?
This figure is mind blowing.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html

NEW DELHI — India’s coronavirus second wave is rapidly sliding into a devastating crisis, with hospitals unbearably full, oxygen supplies running low, desperate people dying in line waiting to see doctors — and mounting evidence that the actual death toll is far higher than officially reported.

Each day, the government reports more than 300,000 new infections, a world record, and India is now seeing more new infections than any other country by far, almost half of all new cases in a global surge.

But experts say those numbers, however staggering, represent just a fraction of the real reach of the virus’s spread, which has thrown this country into emergency mode. Millions of people refuse to even step outside — their fear of catching the virus is that extreme. Accounts from around the country tell of the sick being left to gasp for air as they wait at chaotic hospitals that are running out of lifesaving oxygen.

The sudden surge in recent weeks, with an insidious newer variant possibly playing a role, is casting increasing doubt on India’s official Covid-19 death toll of nearly 200,000, with more than 2,000 people dying every day.

Interviews from cremation grounds across the country, where the fires never stop, portray an extensive pattern of deaths far exceeding the official figures. Nervous politicians and hospital administrators may be undercounting or overlooking large numbers of dead, analysts say. And grieving families may be hiding Covid connections as well, out of shame, adding to the confusion in this enormous nation of 1.4 billion.

Relatives mourning outside a hospital mortuary in Delhi after seeing bodies of Covid-19 victims on Friday.

“It’s a complete massacre of data,” said Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan who has been following India closely. “From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported.”

At one of the large cremation grounds in Ahmedabad, a city in the western Indian state of Gujarat, bright orange fires light up the night sky, burning 24 hours a day, like an industrial plant that never shuts down. Suresh Bhai, a worker there, said he had never seen such a never-ending assembly line of death.

But he has not been writing down the cause of death as Covid-19 on the thin paper slips that he hands over to the mournful families, even though the number of dead is surging along with the virus.

“Sickness, sickness, sickness,” Mr. Suresh said. “That’s what we write.”

When asked why, he said it was what he had been instructed to do by his bosses, who did not respond to requests for comment.

On Saturday, officials reported nearly 350,000 new infections, and the deaths continued to rise. At one hospital in New Delhi, the capital, doctors said 20 patients in a critical care unit had died after oxygen pressure dropped. The doctors blamed the deaths on the city’s acute oxygen shortage.

Months ago, India seemed to be doing remarkably well with the pandemic. After a harsh initial lockdown early last year was eased, the country did not register the frightening case-count and death numbers that sent other big countries into crisis mode. Many officials and ordinary citizens stopped taking precautions, acting as if the worst days were over.

Now, countless Indians are turning to social media to send out heartbreaking S.O.S. messages for a hospital bed, medicine, some oxygen to breathe. “‘National Emergency,’” blared a banner headline in one of India’s leading papers, The Hindustan Times. Across India, mass cremations are now taking place. Sometimes dozens of fires go up at once.

A detailed map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with charts and tables of the number of cases and deaths.

At the same time, India’s Covid vaccine campaign is struggling: Less than 10 percent of Indians have gotten even one dose, despite India being the world’s leading vaccine manufacturer. India’s dire needs are already having ripple effects across the world, especially for poorer countries. It had planned to ship out millions of doses; now, given the country’s stark vaccination shortfall, exports have essentially been shut down, leaving other nations with far fewer doses than they had expected.

Doctors worry that the runaway surge is being at least partly driven by the emergence of a virus variant known as the “double mutant,” B.1.617, because it contains genetic mutations found in two other difficult-to-control versions of the coronavirus. One of the mutations is present in the highly contagious variant that ripped through California earlier this year. The other mutation is similar to one found in the South African variant and believed to make the virus more resistant to vaccines.

Still, scientists caution it is too early to know for sure how pernicious the new variant emerging in India really is.

The result could be the worst of both worlds, faster-spreading and less controllable. This is worrying scientists around the globe, who see people starting to relax their guard in well-inoculated countries even as huge setbacks in India, Brazil and other places raise the likelihood that the coronavirus will mutate in ways that could outflank the current vaccines.

In Bhopal, a large city in central India that was the site of a catastrophic gas leak in the 1980s that killed thousands, residents say the cremation grounds haven’t been as busy since that disaster.

Over 13 days in mid-April, Bhopal officials reported 41 deaths related to Covid-19. But a survey by The New York Times of the city’s main Covid-19 cremation and burial grounds, where bodies were being handled under strict protocols, revealed a total of more than 1,000 deaths during the same period.

“Many deaths are not getting recorded and they are increasing every day,” said Dr. G.C. Gautam, a cardiologist based in Bhopal. He said that officials were doing this because “they don’t want to create panic.”

The same phenomenon appeared to be happening in Lucknow and Mirzapur — major cities in Uttar Pradesh State — and across Gujarat, where, during a similar period in mid-April, the authorities reported between 73 and 121 Covid-related deaths each day.

But a detailed count compiled by one of Gujarat’s leading newspapers, Sandesh, which sent reporters to cremation and burial grounds across the state, indicated that the number was several times higher, around 610 each day.

The biggest newspapers in India have seized on the discrepancies. “COVID-19 deaths in Gujarat far exceed government figures,” read a recent front-page headline in The Hindu.

India’s population is, on average, much younger than in most Western nations. Experts say that is the most likely reason that deaths per million in India had seemed relatively low. But the number is quickly climbing.

According to excess mortality studies, Covid-19 deaths have been underestimated in many countries, including in the United States and Britain.

But India is a much bigger and poorer country. And its people are spread across 28 states and several federal territories in a highly decentralized system of governance, with different states counting deaths in different ways.

Even in a good year, experts say, only about one-fifth of deaths are medically investigated, meaning that the vast number of Indians die without a cause of death being certified.

According to the World Health Organization, a death should be recorded as Covid-19-related if the disease is assumed to have caused or contributed to it, even if the person had a pre-existing medical condition, such as cancer.

In many places in India, that doesn’t seem to be happening.

Rupal Thakkar tested positive for Covid-19 in mid-April. On April 16, she was admitted to Shalby Limited, a private hospital in her home city of Ahmedabad, but her oxygen levels suddenly dropped. The next day Ms. Thakkar, 48, died.

The hospital listed her cause of death as “sudden cardiac death,” which left the Thakkar family outraged.

“It was a lifetime shock,” said her younger brother, Dipan Thakkar. “Why would a private hospital connive with the government in hiding the real death numbers? It was an organized crime. It was an illegal act.”

Officials at Shalby didn’t respond to requests for comment.

After her situation was widely publicized in Indian newspapers, the hospital issued a second death certificate, this time including Covid-19 as a contributing cause.

Some families don’t want the truth to come out, said Dr. Mukherjee of the University of Michigan. Some want to cremate loved ones outside strict Covid-19 government protocols, and so they hide the fact that their family member died from the coronavirus. Others may feel ashamed about losing a loved one, as if it were their fault.

A political agenda may also be at play, experts said. States controlled by India’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may face pressure to underreport, according to some analysts. Dr. Mukherjee cited the very public scandal in 2019 when Mr. Modi’s government tried to suppress data showing a rise in the unemployment rate.

When it comes to Covid data, she said, “there is tremendous pressure from the central government on the state governments for projecting progress.”

Several officials from the governing party did not respond to messages seeking comment.

But manipulating death numbers seems to be happening in other places, too. One example is the state of Chhattisgarh, in central India, which is run by the leading opposition party, Congress.

Officials in Chhattisgarh’s Durg district, home to a large steel plant, reported more than 150 Covid-19 deaths from April 15 to April 21, according to messages sent to local media that were seen by The Times. The state reported less than half that number for Durg.

Chhattisgarh’s health minister, T.S. Singh Deo, denied any intentional underreporting. “We have tried to be as transparent as humanly possible,” he said. “We stand to be corrected at any point in time.”

Cremations are an important part of Hindu burial rituals, seen as a way to free the soul from the body. Those working at the burning grounds said they were utterly exhausted and could never remember so many people dying in such a short span of time.

In Surat, an industrial city in Gujarat, the grills used to burn bodies have been operating so relentlessly that the iron on some has actually melted. On April 14, Covid-19 crematories in Surat and another district, Gandhi Nagar, told The Times that they cremated 124 people, on a day when the authorities said 73 had died of Covid-19 in the entire state.

In Kanpur, in Uttar Pradesh State, bodies are now being burned in some of the city’s parks; the crematories are that backed up.

In Ahmedabad, at the Vadaj crematory, huge smokestacks pump out black smoke. Mr. Suresh, a clerk, sits in a tiny office, the door closed firmly shut.

When reached by telephone, he said he put “beemari,” or sickness in Hindi, on all the death certificates, and he referred questions to a sanitation official who then referred questions to another official who declined to answer calls.

Mr. Suresh said that his crematory handled 15 to 20 bodies of Covid-19 patients every day. As he spoke on Friday, three bodies burned on separate pyres, next to a large and growing stack of freshly chopped wood.
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This sub-section below speaks volumes about what's really happening on the ground:

"It’s a complete massacre of data,” said Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan who has been following India closely. “From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported.”

At one of the large cremation grounds in Ahmedabad, a city in the western Indian state of Gujarat, bright orange fires light up the night sky, burning 24 hours a day, like an industrial plant that never shuts down. Suresh Bhai, a worker there, said he had never seen such a never-ending assembly line of death.

But he has not been writing down the cause of death as Covid-19 on the thin paper slips that he hands over to the mournful families, even though the number of dead is surging along with the virus.

“Sickness, sickness, sickness,” Mr. Suresh said. “That’s what we write.”

When asked why, he said it was what he had been instructed to do by his bosses, who did not respond to requests for comment.

End quote.
 
It is 100% under reporting, and easily into the thousands that’s are undercounted.

I just watched Alex Crawford’s Sky News report where in it she asked the head of one crematorium why they were undercounting the dead when she herself saw so many bring cremated in one day but they responded that there are “orders from higher up” to keep the numbers as low as possible.

The conclusion one can draw is this variant has caught the Indian government totally off guard - they were not prepared for it and now it’s just about damage limitation in terms of PR.

But they can’t hide this fact now in the international media, it remains to be seen if the Indian media will highlight this issue to their public
 
It is 100% under reporting, and easily into the thousands that’s are undercounted.

I just watched Alex Crawford’s Sky News report where in it she asked the head of one crematorium why they were undercounting the dead when she herself saw so many bring cremated in one day but they responded that there are “orders from higher up” to keep the numbers as low as possible.

The conclusion one can draw is this variant has caught the Indian government totally off guard - they were not prepared for it and now it’s just about damage limitation in terms of PR.

But they can’t hide this fact now in the international media, it remains to be seen if the Indian media will highlight this issue to their public

Honesty is what one would hope for in such situations, regardless of how dire the ground reality is. The politicians in charge will receive criticism and deservedly so but people will also be sympathetic and understanding.

The Indian government has opted to do the exact opposite and their motivation for doing this is as clear as peering through a pane of see-through glass. Conversely, the government's expediency to obfuscate and deflect is terribly disrespectful to those who've suffered a personal tragedy - it's akin to smearing salt into their wounds.
 
It is 100% under reporting, and easily into the thousands that’s are undercounted.

I just watched Alex Crawford’s Sky News report where in it she asked the head of one crematorium why they were undercounting the dead when she herself saw so many bring cremated in one day but they responded that there are “orders from higher up” to keep the numbers as low as possible.

The conclusion one can draw is this variant has caught the Indian government totally off guard - they were not prepared for it and now it’s just about damage limitation in terms of PR.

But they can’t hide this fact now in the international media, it remains to be seen if the Indian media will highlight this issue to their public

According to [MENTION=76058]cricketjoshila[/MENTION] bhai, the number of deaths are being exagurated. He believes its due to western propaganda.

We know in the UK the deaths are lower, overstated.

I have no idea what the real number is in India but does seem higher. This new variant seems more infectious and much more of a killer.
 
28,000 deaths per day,in non covid times ?
This figure is mind blowing.

After Covid came, I started following daily appx deaths in countries and it is shocking

~3000 in Bangladesh
~4000 in Pakistan
~7000 to 8000 in USA
~1500 to 1800 in UK
 
According to [MENTION=76058]cricketjoshila[/MENTION] bhai, the number of deaths are being exagurated. He believes its due to western propaganda.

Western propaganda when against India.

"Whole world disagrees with you" when against Pakistan.
 
ofcourse they are, they are everywhere, even in UK, the gov. was caught pants down trying to hide deaths in old care homes. Every country is under reporting.
 
You know things are bad when the British health secretary, when addressing its nation on live tv, spends the first few minutes talking about the situation in India.
 
The numbers are much higher then they are being reported. Could be that thrice as more people have been victims of this deadly disease. It is Gospel truth when the west reports something good about India but propaganda when it is bad news. This is much like Kamala Harris is an Indian but Sonia Gandhi an Italian according to many Indian's:yk2. Go figure...
 
There is a BBC interview (on Hardtalk) with a BJP representative who was absolutely ripped to smithereens after the presenter highlighted the number of Covid deaths in India was underreported.
 
Not sure what is to be gained by not reporting accurately - think its more of a failure to do proper reporting than anything sinister
 
There's growing concern that India's official tally of coronavirus deaths does not match what grieving relatives and others are seeing on the ground.

India has continued to post alarmingly high global record numbers of coronavirus cases, with more than 300,000 every day for the past week.

But its deaths are still low in comparison to its huge one-billion-plus population (around 190,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic).

We've visited a number of crematoriums over the past few days - in Delhi, and in Ghaziabad in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh.

In both places we found what appeared to be underreporting of the number of bodies coming into the crematoriums for funerals.

In around one hour in the Electric Crematorium in east Delhi we counted at least 30 active or prepared pyres with bodies entombed underneath the wood. Several ambulances transporting bodies arrived whilst we were there.

We spotted a single ambulance with five bodies stacked inside it. One ambulance driver from a private hospital said he was transporting "10 to 12" bodies daily - from just one of the Indian capital's hospitals.

Yet when we inquired about how many deaths were registered that day, we were told 20. The figure was a miscalculation for just the hour that we were there, never mind the entire day.

Delhi death rates are hovering around the 400 mark per day, but many we spoke to - as well as other commentators - seem convinced the numbers are far higher.

One mourner, Amit Kaushik, told us: "The Delhi government says that 380 peoples are dying every day from coronavirus but it's actually around 1,000… more than 1,000."

The general secretary of the Association of Health Service Doctors, West Bengal, told the UK's Observer newspaper: "The figures on COVID infections that the government is releasing are actually an underestimate."

Dr Manas Gumta went on: "A huge suspected COVID-positive population is certainly staying away from the tests. I believe the actual number of people dying of COVID is two to three times higher than what the government is reporting."

In Uttar Pradesh, our researchers counted about 25 bodies awaiting funerals at the Hindon crematorium in Ghaziabad and another eight which were lit.

Whilst inquiring about the official tally, the person in charge insisted they were dealing with only about six funerals daily on average.

When our researcher challenged him on this, he was informed, "we've been told to give that (lower) number by higher authorities".

We have repeatedly tried to reach the capital's municipal authorities, and the Indian government insists figures are all faithfully recorded and without interference.

A Twitter video doing the rounds in India shows furious relatives apparently attacking hospital workers after one of the family died from coronavirus before a bed could be found.

A second shows the floors of a hospital corridor splattered with blood after the fracas when health workers were apparently beaten by the same unnamed relatives.

There is much anger throughout the country as the nation struggles to cope with this deadly virus ripping through its people, and which is bringing its health service to its knees.

The scarcity of beds, the acute shortage of basic supplies like oxygen, the rampant black marketing as vital medicines double and triple in price is straining the faith of people who are reeling from the ferocity of this pandemic.

The west Delhi private hospital we visited a day ago, the Aakash Health Care Super Speciality Hospital, put out a red flag about its oxygen supplies.

Every doctor we spoke to there told us of their concern about oxygen supplies and how they were living on tenterhooks about when they would need to source more.

It is this desperate search for such a basic commodity of life which has enraged Indians and left them questioning and challenging the government's preparedness for this second surge.

Now, as they struggle to find places to bury their dead, as they roam around their capital trying to find a crematorium where they can cremate their loved ones and pay their last respects, they're starting to also question the accuracy of death statistics which do not seem in sync with their own experiences.

"There's no hospital beds available," said Amit Kaushik.

"And now for cremation, we searched two or three but there are no spaces… and finally we came here and we've been waiting for the last two or three hours… just for a space."

A graveyard worker who's been working on the ground, extending the crematorium by a hundred plots, told us he had observed multiple bodies and multiple funerals.

"So many people are dying and brought here," he told us. "Daily, at least 250 to 300 bodies are brought here… we see it."

There is a searing shock over the suddenness of all this and the country's citizens are in the midst of the whole world's worst nightmare about this pandemic.

"Eighty per cent of the deaths are due to the medical negligence here," one mourner who's lost five relatives to COVID told us.

Nishant Wadhwan said: "What I have realised is, we could have saved our relatives. They were in hospital and they did not get the proper care that they wanted because of the lack of oxygen, lack of medicines, lack of injections… and people are dying here."

And just why this has happened will be down to the Indian authorities to answer.

https://news.sky.com/story/india-cr...er-true-number-of-coronavirus-deaths-12288828
 
Indian people have the right to know what their own media is hiding from them.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thanks <a href="https://twitter.com/ttindia?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ttindia</a> for being the beacon of hope in the Orwellian world we have been pushed to. <a href="https://t.co/HAZy8Q4aRJ">pic.twitter.com/HAZy8Q4aRJ</a></p>— aakash mehrotra 🏳️*🌈 (@aakashmehrotra) <a href="https://twitter.com/aakashmehrotra/status/1387040522057904137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 27, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
The question now isn’t if india is under reporting its tally. The question is if it is doing it willingly
 
'The problem could be 10 times worse than reported'

Ashitha Nagesh

BBC News, London

It's widely agreed among experts that both cases and deaths are being under-reported in India right now - and one expert tells me that she thinks the real figures could be as high as 10 times the official numbers in some areas.

Dr Amita Gupta is a professor of medicine in international health at the US-based Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and she facilitates the university's partnerships with clinics and labs across India.

"We were estimating that the problem is 10 times worse in places like Maharashtra than the official numbers, based on what we're hearing," she says.

One of the main problems is that only people with symptoms are being tested, and even then testing labs are already at capacity.

"We've heard from many of the big lab chains around India... they're running 24/7 and are essentially overrun with tests. There's only so many they can test."
 
We must remember that this wouldn't be the first time India has fudged official numbers. India were not so long ago caught lying about 'official' GDP figures.

The first step to fixing a problem is admitting you have a problem in the first place; not sugarcoat it with lies.
 
Very sad what's happening. Keep everyone in your prayers and hope you all remain safe.
 
On 1 April, the wife and daughter of an editor of a leading newspaper in India's western state of Gujarat went to a state-run hospital to get the daughter a Covid-19 test.

Waiting in the queue, they noticed two body bags on gurneys. Workers at the hospital in the capital, Gandhinagar, said the patients had died of Covid-19.

The mother and daughter returned home and told Rajesh Pathak, who edits a local edition of Sandesh, what they that had seen.

Mr Pathak called his reporters that evening and decided to investigate further. "After all, the government press statements were showing no Covid-19 deaths for Gandhinagar yet," he said. Only nine deaths from Covid-19 were officially recorded in Gujarat that day.

Next day onwards a team of reporters began calling up hospitals treating Covid-19 patients in seven cities - Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, Gandhinagar, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar - and kept a tab on deaths. Since then, Sandesh, a 98-year-old Gujarati language newspaper, has published a daily count of the dead, which is usually several times more than the official figure. "We have our sources in hospitals, and the government has not denied any of our reports. But we still needed first-hand confirmation," Mr Pathak says.

So the newspaper decided to do some old-fashioned shoe-leather journalism. On the evening of 11 April, two reporters and a photographer staked out the mortuary of the 1,200-bed state-run Covid-19 hospital in Ahmedabad. Over 17 hours, they counted 69 body bags coming out of a single exit before they were loaded into waiting ambulances. Next day, Gujarat officially counted 55 deaths, including 20 from Ahmedabad.

On the night of 16 April, the journalists drove 150km (93 miles) around Ahmedabad and visited 21 cremation grounds. There they counted body bags and pyres, examined registers, spoke to cremation workers, looked at "slips" which assigned the cause of death, and took photographs and recorded videos. They found that most of the deaths were attributed to "illness", although the bodies were being handled under rigorous protocols. At the end of the night the team had counted more than 200 bodies. But the next day, Ahmedabad counted only 25 deaths.

All of April, Sandesh's intrepid reporters have diligently counted the dead in seven cities. On 21 April, they counted 753 deaths, the highest single-day tally since the deadly second wave washed over the western state. On a number of other days, they counted in excess of 500 deaths. On 5 May, the paper counted 83 deaths in Vadodara. The official figure was 13.

The Gujarat government denies under-counting and says it is following federal protocols.

But reportage by other newspapers has stood up the alleged under-counting. The English language Hindu newspaper, for example, reported it had information that 689 bodies were cremated or buried in the seven cities following Covid-19 protocols on 16 April, when the official death toll for the entire state was 94. Some experts reckoned that last month alone Gujarat might have under-counted Covid-19 deaths by a staggering factor of 10.

With the pandemic forcing people to stay away from the rituals of grief, newspapers were overflowing with obituaries.

And some of the obituaries appeared to point to the under-counting that was taking place:

The number of funerals at a cremation ground in Bharuch district on Saturday also did not tally with the official death statistic, according to this report in Gujarat Samachar, another leading local newspaper:

Gujarat has so far officially registered more than 680,000 Covid-19 infections and over 8,500 deaths. Under-counting of deaths have been reported from several Indian cities badly hit by the pandemic. But the scale of Gujarat's under-counting appears to be massive, and has even provoked the state's high court to admonish the state government, run by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling BJP. "The state had nothing to gain by hiding the real picture and hence suppression and concealment of accurate data would generate more serious problems including fear, loss of trust, panic among the public at large," the judges said in April.

Many believe that most Covid-19 deaths are being attributed to the patient's underlying conditions or co-morbidities. A senior bureaucrat, who preferred to remain unnamed, told me only patients testing positive for the virus and dying of "viral pneumonia" were being counted as Covid-19 deaths. Chief minister Vijay Rupani says "every death is being investigated and recorded by a death audit committee".

To be sure, counting bodies at mortuaries or cremation grounds and tallying them with official figures for the day can be imprecise as official statistics come with a time lag, according to Prabhat Jha of the University of Toronto, who led India's ambitious Million Death Study. Countries such as UK have reduced the official death toll from coronavirus after a review of how deaths are counted. Covid-19 deaths have been under-reported by as much as 30 to 40% worldwide, studies have shown.

A patient with breathing problems lies inside a car while waiting to enter a COVID-19 hospital for treatment, amidst the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Ahmedabad, India, April 22,

"Reporting and recording systems are swamped during a pandemic, so officials often take time to update [numbers]. But update they must, and record all the deaths. Counting body bags at hospitals and cremation grounds is a good way to put pressure on authorities to come clean," Dr Jha says.

For the journalists, it has been a harrowing experience.

Hitesh Rathod, a photographer at Sandesh, recounted the harrowing experience of counting the dead. "People were getting admitted and coming out as body bags," he said. He found six-hour-long queues of bodies at crematoria, which he says reminded him of the "long queues of people outside banks after demonetisation," Mr Modi's controversial 2016 ban on high denomination currency.

"Five years later, I found similar queues outside hospitals, mortuaries and cremation grounds. This time there were queues of the people struggling to stay alive and queues of the dead," he said.

Ronak Shah, one of Sandesh's reporters, says he was shaken up by the wails of three young children piercing the still night when the hospital's PA system announced the death of their father. "The children were saying they had come to the hospital to pick up their father and go home. They returned with his corpse seven hours later," Mr Shah says.

Dipak Mashla, who led the team to the cremation grounds, says he returned home "scared and shaken". "I saw parents come with body bags of their dead children, pay money to the funeral worker and tell them, 'Please take my child and burn him'. They were too scared to even touch the corpse."

Imtiyaz Ujjainwala, another reporter on the team, believes the scale of under-counting has been considerably more, considering he and his colleagues only counted bodies from one hospital. There were more than 171 private hospitals treating Covid-19 patients in Ahmedabad, he said. "And nobody is counting there."

BBC
 
I don't believe that India is the only nation that is under-reporting the figures. There is always a days difference in the official tally up.
I don't believe the claims that there are more dead than are being shown as not all deaths may have occured due to Covid.

Non-covid patients who needed ICU and would have survived any other time, are now dying as the facilities have been all consumed by the Covid cases. It is just not a right time to fall sick.

Some posters say state governments are suppressing official counts. This I find it hard to believe, only if they knew how difficult it is to keep anything like this wrapped up in India. We Indians just don't like to take blanket "keep-mum" orders so blindly and will report any such attempt at the first instance we get.

I have seen some recent report that doctors and nurses are taking their own lives. Do you think anybody who can take such extreme steps will not have reported attempts to silence them?

The reason why descrepancy (can't be denied in pockets but lets not make it pan India) exists is that people are frustrated waiting for cremation. You have 100 hospitals in city sending dead bodies but hardly one or 2 crematoriums. Feel sorry for the families and relatives who have already struggled to get patients treated ad now are struggling in the last rites. Not surprised if their anger turns towards hospitals, governments and state machinery and manifested itself in all things that govt does including reporting of numbers.
 
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Situation in control, prepared for third wave, says UP CM Yogi Adityanath

“We are hiding nothing. Everything is transparent... Every detail of testing, recoveries and deaths are uploaded on the (government's Covid) portal,” Adityanath told a group of reporters in Noida.


The pandemic situation in Uttar Pradesh is not alarming or out of control, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said on Sunday. UP is even prepared for a third wave of Covid-19, if it comes, Adityanath said.

Extra test kits and medical kits, and surveillance teams trained in Covid management have been despatched to villages to check the spread of the pandemic in rural areas, the Chief Minister said.

“We are hiding nothing. Everything is transparent… Every detail of testing, recoveries and deaths are uploaded on the (government’s Covid) portal,” Adityanath told a group of reporters in Noida.

“Concerns had been expressed that given the population of Uttar Pradesh, things would spin out of control. But the situation is not out of control,” he said.

The Chief Minister said that UP, which has fought Japanese encephalitis for years, has set up infrastructure that is capable of facing a “third wave” as well.

A committee including members from multiple departments has been set up to monitor the situation, he said. Besides the district hospitals with 1,200-1,500 beds, Community Health Centres in the villages would also be provided with people trained at Gorakhpur Medical College and KGMU Hospital in Lucknow, the Chief Minister said.

The state has vaccinated 1.5 crore people, taken steps to procure vaccine supplies from abroad, and reduced the wastage of vaccines, he said.

UP has been witnessing a decline in reported infections for the last two weeks. On April 30, the state had reported 34,722 cases, and its active cases were at an all-time high of 3.10 lakh. There has been a consistent slowdown since then. On Saturday, the state reported only 12,513 new cases, while its active caseload had come down to 1.77 lakh. But around 300 deaths are still being reported in the state every day.

Adityanath conceded that the spread of the pandemic was a “concern”. His government had launched a campaign on May 5 to create surveillance teams for every ward in both gram panchayats and urban local bodies, he said. The surveillance teams are expected to look at cleanliness, sanitation, and fogging, apart from screening people and distributing medical kits for those with symptoms.

The UP government has come under criticism, including from within the BJP, over its handling of the Covid situation.

On the bodies found floating in the Ganga in some parts of the state, Adityanath said there were instances in which people, in an attempt to avoid crowded cremation grounds or burial grounds, dumped bodies into the river.

“We have posted SDRF (State Disaster Response Force) and PAC (Provincial Armed Constabulary) personnel at every river and water body, and alerted panchayats and urban local bodies to see that no bodies are dumped in rivers. We have asked them to persuade people to not do this,” he said.

He added that local bodies have been asked to extend the financial assistance that is provided for bodies with no claimants to Covid-affected ones as well.

The Chief Minister denied that people were dying without proper treatment in the state. “There could be some exceptions. But Uttar Pradesh does not have a situation like that. Such a situation may be there in some other states,” he said.

According to him, UP had 23,000 level 2 and level 3 beds in the first wave, apart from almost 1.16 lakh level 1 facility beds. But with the L1 beds not in much use, for the second wave, the state has prepared 80,000 L2 and L3 beds, which are in use, besides the facilities provided by the Defence Research and Development Organisation, he said.

“There could be exceptions. Because not everyone can call 108, and not everyone can register. But the government is reaching out to them too,” Adityanath said.

The Chief Minister urged the media to send out “positive and constructive” messages instead of “presenting concerns over shortage of oxygen and medicines in a way that could create panic and scare among the people”.

He said: “The way we express our concerns, over oxygen, remdesivir, etc., there is panic in the minds of the people. This is the time we should help people to be brave and show strong will power. We are fighting a pandemic, not an ordinary disease. This pandemic is not just in India. The health infrastructure in the US and Europe is much better than that of India. So how did the US end up having so many deaths?”

Asked if there was any “negligence” that led to the worsening of the situation, Adityanath said the situation in UP was under control. “See, Noida has not become like Delhi…don’t you see the difference between Nodia and Delhi (in terms of infections and fatalities)? The situation is the same all over UP.”

He denied that the panchayat elections had led to a rise in cases. “Was there any election in Delhi? Did Maharashtra have an election? Anyway, the panchayat elections were held as per the directions of the High Court,” Adityanath said.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/yogi-adityanath-covid-third-wave-covid-deaths-up-cases-7317908/
 
Situation in control, prepared for third wave, says UP CM Yogi Adityanath

“We are hiding nothing. Everything is transparent... Every detail of testing, recoveries and deaths are uploaded on the (government's Covid) portal,” Adityanath told a group of reporters in Noida.


The pandemic situation in Uttar Pradesh is not alarming or out of control, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said on Sunday. UP is even prepared for a third wave of Covid-19, if it comes, Adityanath said.

Extra test kits and medical kits, and surveillance teams trained in Covid management have been despatched to villages to check the spread of the pandemic in rural areas, the Chief Minister said.

“We are hiding nothing. Everything is transparent… Every detail of testing, recoveries and deaths are uploaded on the (government’s Covid) portal,” Adityanath told a group of reporters in Noida.

“Concerns had been expressed that given the population of Uttar Pradesh, things would spin out of control. But the situation is not out of control,” he said.

The Chief Minister said that UP, which has fought Japanese encephalitis for years, has set up infrastructure that is capable of facing a “third wave” as well.

A committee including members from multiple departments has been set up to monitor the situation, he said. Besides the district hospitals with 1,200-1,500 beds, Community Health Centres in the villages would also be provided with people trained at Gorakhpur Medical College and KGMU Hospital in Lucknow, the Chief Minister said.

The state has vaccinated 1.5 crore people, taken steps to procure vaccine supplies from abroad, and reduced the wastage of vaccines, he said.

UP has been witnessing a decline in reported infections for the last two weeks. On April 30, the state had reported 34,722 cases, and its active cases were at an all-time high of 3.10 lakh. There has been a consistent slowdown since then. On Saturday, the state reported only 12,513 new cases, while its active caseload had come down to 1.77 lakh. But around 300 deaths are still being reported in the state every day.

Adityanath conceded that the spread of the pandemic was a “concern”. His government had launched a campaign on May 5 to create surveillance teams for every ward in both gram panchayats and urban local bodies, he said. The surveillance teams are expected to look at cleanliness, sanitation, and fogging, apart from screening people and distributing medical kits for those with symptoms.

The UP government has come under criticism, including from within the BJP, over its handling of the Covid situation.

On the bodies found floating in the Ganga in some parts of the state, Adityanath said there were instances in which people, in an attempt to avoid crowded cremation grounds or burial grounds, dumped bodies into the river.

“We have posted SDRF (State Disaster Response Force) and PAC (Provincial Armed Constabulary) personnel at every river and water body, and alerted panchayats and urban local bodies to see that no bodies are dumped in rivers. We have asked them to persuade people to not do this,” he said.

He added that local bodies have been asked to extend the financial assistance that is provided for bodies with no claimants to Covid-affected ones as well.

The Chief Minister denied that people were dying without proper treatment in the state. “There could be some exceptions. But Uttar Pradesh does not have a situation like that. Such a situation may be there in some other states,” he said.

According to him, UP had 23,000 level 2 and level 3 beds in the first wave, apart from almost 1.16 lakh level 1 facility beds. But with the L1 beds not in much use, for the second wave, the state has prepared 80,000 L2 and L3 beds, which are in use, besides the facilities provided by the Defence Research and Development Organisation, he said.

“There could be exceptions. Because not everyone can call 108, and not everyone can register. But the government is reaching out to them too,” Adityanath said.

The Chief Minister urged the media to send out “positive and constructive” messages instead of “presenting concerns over shortage of oxygen and medicines in a way that could create panic and scare among the people”.

He said: “The way we express our concerns, over oxygen, remdesivir, etc., there is panic in the minds of the people. This is the time we should help people to be brave and show strong will power. We are fighting a pandemic, not an ordinary disease. This pandemic is not just in India. The health infrastructure in the US and Europe is much better than that of India. So how did the US end up having so many deaths?”

Asked if there was any “negligence” that led to the worsening of the situation, Adityanath said the situation in UP was under control. “See, Noida has not become like Delhi…don’t you see the difference between Nodia and Delhi (in terms of infections and fatalities)? The situation is the same all over UP.”

He denied that the panchayat elections had led to a rise in cases. “Was there any election in Delhi? Did Maharashtra have an election? Anyway, the panchayat elections were held as per the directions of the High Court,” Adityanath said.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/yogi-adityanath-covid-third-wave-covid-deaths-up-cases-7317908/

This yogi is a con artist - I wouldn't believe a word that he says. His state was suffering from a lack of a oxygen with so many people dying but this liar denied it.
 
da86da60-45e8-48c3-b156-64fe648abd24.jpg

Ever since the second wave of Covid-19 hit India, its Covid death toll has remained a matter of contention amid news of underreporting of Covid cases by the government.

On Wednesday, a New York Times report estimated that about 16 lakh Indians died due to Covid-19 during the second wave of the pandemic.

The NYT report contradicts the country’s official data, according to which only 307,231 deaths have taken place as of May 24. It says that even by a conservative estimate, the result is a death toll roughly double of what’s been reported to date.

The worst-case scenario suggests that over 40 lakh Indian died due to Covid-19 during the second wave of Covid-19.

The report published by NYT states that the estimated number of total deaths was arrived at after consultations with experts and analysing cases and death counts over a period of time.

The NYT report has also used data from three nationwide antibody tests, called serosurveys.

Kayoko Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University, said that because hospitals are overwhelmed, many Covid deaths occur at home, especially in rural areas, and are omitted from the official count.\

Going by the official data provided by the government, India’s death toll is the third-highest reported in the world after the US and Brazil, accounting for 8.6% of the nearly 3.47 million coronavirus fatalities globally, though the true numbers are thought to be significantly greater.

https://www.outlookindia.com/websit...d-wave-not-307-lakh-as-claimed-by-govt/383656
 
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View attachment 109269

Ever since the second wave of Covid-19 hit India, its Covid death toll has remained a matter of contention amid news of underreporting of Covid cases by the government.

On Wednesday, a New York Times report estimated that about 16 lakh Indians died due to Covid-19 during the second wave of the pandemic.

The NYT report contradicts the country’s official data, according to which only 307,231 deaths have taken place as of May 24. It says that even by a conservative estimate, the result is a death toll roughly double of what’s been reported to date.

The worst-case scenario suggests that over 40 lakh Indian died due to Covid-19 during the second wave of Covid-19.

The report published by NYT states that the estimated number of total deaths was arrived at after consultations with experts and analysing cases and death counts over a period of time.

The NYT report has also used data from three nationwide antibody tests, called serosurveys.

Kayoko Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University, said that because hospitals are overwhelmed, many Covid deaths occur at home, especially in rural areas, and are omitted from the official count.\

Going by the official data provided by the government, India’s death toll is the third-highest reported in the world after the US and Brazil, accounting for 8.6% of the nearly 3.47 million coronavirus fatalities globally, though the true numbers are thought to be significantly greater.

https://www.outlookindia.com/websit...d-wave-not-307-lakh-as-claimed-by-govt/383656

will be interesting when india provides it census on population for next yr
 
Patna: The total number of fatalities caused by the coronavirus infection in Bihar has drastically increased as the state health department has revised the COVID-19 death count to 9,429, an increase of almost 73 per cent from the previous toll.

According to the state health department, which had till the previous day stated the number of deaths to be under 5,500, as many as 3,951 deaths have been added to the toll after verification.

The Bihar government carried out a 20-day exercise to audit COVID-19 deaths in the state after the Patna High Court flagged irregularities in the fatality count in the Buxar district on May 17. The health department has also revised the number of recovered persons from 7,01,234 on the previous day to 6,98,397.

Currently, there were 7,353 active COVID-19 cases in the state.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Bihar government announced an ex-gratia of Rs 4 lakhs to the next of kin of those who succumbed to COVID-19 in the state. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had also announced the easing of lockdown restrictions in the state from June 9 amid a decline in the fresh cases.

"The lockdown has served the purpose of putting a check on coronavirus cases. Hence it would now be done away with, though a few restrictions will remain," Kumar tweeted after a meeting of the crisis management group which reviewed the pandemic situation in the state.

However, the night curfew will remain in effect from 7 pm to 5 am.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/...y-count-confirms-more-than-9000-deaths/768561
 
Well under reporting happened everywhere from USA to Europe to China. I wonder why only India is being discussed. Answer is pretty obvious I guess
 
Patna: The total number of fatalities caused by the coronavirus infection in Bihar has drastically increased as the state health department has revised the COVID-19 death count to 9,429, an increase of almost 73 per cent from the previous toll.

According to the state health department, which had till the previous day stated the number of deaths to be under 5,500, as many as 3,951 deaths have been added to the toll after verification.

The Bihar government carried out a 20-day exercise to audit COVID-19 deaths in the state after the Patna High Court flagged irregularities in the fatality count in the Buxar district on May 17. The health department has also revised the number of recovered persons from 7,01,234 on the previous day to 6,98,397.

Currently, there were 7,353 active COVID-19 cases in the state.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Bihar government announced an ex-gratia of Rs 4 lakhs to the next of kin of those who succumbed to COVID-19 in the state. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had also announced the easing of lockdown restrictions in the state from June 9 amid a decline in the fresh cases.

"The lockdown has served the purpose of putting a check on coronavirus cases. Hence it would now be done away with, though a few restrictions will remain," Kumar tweeted after a meeting of the crisis management group which reviewed the pandemic situation in the state.

However, the night curfew will remain in effect from 7 pm to 5 am.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/...y-count-confirms-more-than-9000-deaths/768561
Everyone who doesn't wear saffron tinted glasses, knew it.

Now the time for UP to revise its death count too, will be multi fold increase in death toll.
 
vaguely recall some poster on PP claiming actual death toll could be as high as 10 times the reported figure.
 
Its ten times higher at a minimum, I would say around 20-25 times higher.
 
Well under reporting happened everywhere from USA to Europe to China. I wonder why only India is being discussed. Answer is pretty obvious I guess

US had over reporting. People who weren’t even tested positive for covid were counted in Covid death counts as long as they were told to have had exhibited Covid like symptoms before death
 
Well under reporting happened everywhere from USA to Europe to China. I wonder why only India is being discussed. Answer is pretty obvious I guess



thats because you have actually read much into the threads in pakistan / UK / usa thread, go back in read the threads, a load of comments regarding under reporting - tests and deaths
 
India posts record new coronavirus deaths after data revision

India on Thursday recorded a global record of more than 6,000 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours after one state dramatically revised upwards its data, stoking suspicions that the country's toll is much higher than reported.

According to health ministry figures, 6,148 people died in the previous 24 hours, taking total fatalities to almost 360,000, the world's third highest.

The previous world record according to an AFP tally was 5,527 in the United States on February 12, although this was also due to an upwards revision of earlier deaths.
 
US had over reporting. People who weren’t even tested positive for covid were counted in Covid death counts as long as they were told to have had exhibited Covid like symptoms before death

Similar thing happens in India also, so many non covid are tagged as Covid for insurance claims etc. While a lot of them do go unreported, its mainly cos people dont get tested and in the second wave a lot cases the tests the came negative . I had 4 members in my team who got infected, 2 of them tested negative but had all the symptoms so home quarantined . This is not some Conspiracy, its just common sense that the actual numbers may be higher for different reason.
 
India's coronavirus death toll is up to 10 times higher than the nearly 415,000 fatalities reported by authorities, likely making it the country's worst humanitarian disaster since independence, a US research group said Tuesday.

The Center for Global Development study's estimate is the highest yet for the carnage in the South Asian nation of 1.3 billion people, which is emerging from a devastating surge partly fuelled by the Delta variant in April and May.

The study -- which analysed data from the start of the pandemic to June this year -- suggested that between 3.4 million and 4.7 million people had died from the virus.

"True deaths are likely to be in the several millions, not hundreds of thousands, making this arguably India's worst human tragedy since partition and independence," the researchers said.

India's official death toll of just over 414,000 is the world's third-highest after the United States' 609,000 fatalities and Brazil's 542,000.

Experts have been casting doubt on India's toll for months, blaming the stressed health service rather than deliberate misinformation.

Several Indian states have revised their virus tolls in recent weeks, adding thousands of "backlog" deaths.

The center's report was based on estimating "excess mortality", the number of extra people who died compared with pre-crisis figures.

The authors -- which included Arvind Subramanian, a former chief government economic adviser -- did this partly by analysing death registrations in some states as well as a recurring national economic study.

The researchers, which also included a Harvard University expert, acknowledged that estimating mortality with statistical confidence was difficult.

"(But) all estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count," they said.

- 'Speculative' -

Christophe Guilmoto, a specialist in Indian demography at France's Research Institute for Development, this month estimated that the death toll was nearer 2.2 million by late May.

India's death rate per million was nearly half the world average and Guilmoto said "such a low figure contradicts the apparent severity of a crisis that has struck most Indian families across the country".

Guilmoto's team concluded that only one coronavirus death in seven was recorded.

A model by the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated that the Covid toll could be more than 1.25 million.

India's health ministry last month slammed The Economist magazine for publishing a story that said excess deaths were between five and seven times higher than the official toll, calling it "speculative" and "misinformed".

A World Health Organization report in May said up to three times more people had died around the globe during the pandemic -- from coronavirus or other causes -- than indicated by official statistics.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...id-deaths-10-times-higher-than-reported-study
 
About 4 million people have died in India due to this virus. Of course the Godi media is hiding the truth. Honest Indian journalists and thinkers like Sakshi Joshi, Ashok Swain and Pravin Sawhney are openly admitting it.
 
New Delhi: Refuting media reports that alleged India's COVID-19 death count was "vastly undercounted", the government on Thursday said the reports assume that all excess mortality figures are Covid deaths, which is not based on facts and totally fallacious.
Given the robust and statute-based death registration system in India, while some cases could go undetected as per the principles of infectious disease and its management, missing out on the deaths is unlikely, the Union Health Ministry said.

There have been some recent media reports alleging that India's tally of excess deaths during the pandemic could be in millions, terming the official COVID-19 death count "vastly undercounted", the ministry said in a statement.

In these news reports, quoting findings from some recent studies, the US and European countries' age-specific infection fatality rates have been used to calculate excess deaths in India based on the sero-positivity.

"The extrapolation of deaths has been done on an audacious assumption that the likelihood of any given infected person dying is the same across countries, dismissing the interplay between various direct and indirect factors such as race, ethnicity, genomic constitution of a population, previous exposure levels to other diseases and the associated immunity developed in that population," the statement said.

Furthermore, the sero-prevalence studies are not only used to guide strategy and measures to further prevent the spread of infection to the vulnerable population but are also used as another basis to extrapolate deaths.

The studies also have another potential concern that the antibody titers may diminish over time, leading to underestimation of true prevalence and corresponding overestimation of infection fatality rate.

"Further, the reports assume that all the excess mortality figures are COVID-19 deaths, which is not based on facts and totally fallacious. Excess mortality is a term used to describe an all-cause mortality figure and attributing these deaths to COVID-19 is completely misleading," the statement said.

India has a thorough contact-tracing strategy. All the primary contacts, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, are tested for COVID-19. The true detected cases are the ones that test positive with RT-PCR, which is the gold standard of COVID-19 test.

In addition to the contacts, given the vast availability of more than 2,700 testing laboratories in the country, anyone who wants to get tested is able to get the test done. This, coupled with awareness campaigns about the symptoms and access to medical care, has ensured people could reach out to hospitals in case of need.

Given the robust and statute-based death registration system in India, missing out on the deaths is unlikely.

This could also be seen in the case fatality rate, which, as on 31st December 2020, stood at 1.45 per cent and even after an unexpected surge observed in the second wave in April-May 2021, the case fatality rate today stands at 1.34 per cent, it said.

Moreover, the reporting of daily new cases and deaths in India follows a bottom-up approach, where districts report the number of cases and deaths to the state governments and to the Union Ministry on a continuous basis, the statement said.

As early as May 2020, to avoid inconsistency or confusion in the number of deaths being reported, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) issued 'Guidance for appropriate recording of COVID-19 related deaths in India' for correct recording of all deaths by States/UTs as recommended by the WHO for mortality coding.

In his statement in Rajya Sabha, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya has refuted allegations of hiding COVID-19 deaths and said that the central government only compiles and publishes data sent by the state governments, the statement said.

The Union Health Ministry has been repeatedly advising states and UTs for recording of deaths in accordance with guidelines.

The Health Ministry has also regularly emphasised the need for a robust reporting mechanism for monitoring district-wise cases and deaths on a daily basis.

States have been advised to conduct thorough audits in their hospitals and report any cases or deaths that could have been missed with a district and date-wise details so as to guide a data-driven decision-making.

During the peak of the second wave, the entire health system was focused on effective clinical management of cases requiring medical help, and correct reporting & recording could have been compromised which is also evident in a few states such as Maharashtra, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh reconciling their number of deaths recently.

In addition to this reporting, the robustness of statute-based Civil Registration System (CRS) ensures all the births and deaths in the country get registered.

NDTV
 
NEW DELHI, Feb 4 (Reuters) - India's official COVID-19 death toll crossed 500,000 on Friday, a level some data analysts said was breached last year but was obscured by inaccurate surveys and unaccounted dead in the hinterlands, where millions remain vulnerable to the disease.

The country, which has the fourth-highest tally of deaths globally, recorded 400,000 deaths by July 2021 after the devastating outbreak from the Delta variant of the coronavirus, according to official data. Some believe the figures were much higher.

"Our study published in the journal Science estimates 3 million COVID deaths in India until mid-2021 using three different databases," Chinmay Tumbe, an assistant professor at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, who co-authored the study, told Reuters.

Last month, the Indian government dismissed the study as baseless in a notification saying there is a robust system of birth and death reporting.

India's states record deaths from COVID after collating data from their districts. In the last few months, several states have updated the number of deaths, some under pressure from the country's top court. In most instances, authorities said there were lapses due to delayed registrations and other administrative errors.

India is currently in the midst of a third wave of the coronavirus led by the Omicron variant, which some top experts say is already in community transmission although federal officials say most cases are mild. read more

Last month, the government eased testing norms and told states to drop mandatory testing for contacts of confirmed cases unless they were old or battling other conditions. But, with the number of tests falling, the government issued a revised circular warning states they would miss the spread of the virus.

According to official figures, India's overall number of COVID infections has reached 41.95 million, the second-highest globally behind the United States.

To prevent new surges, the government has vaccinated three-fourths of the eligible 939 million adult population with the mandatory two-dose regime.

Indian officials are carrying out a vaccination drive in remote parts of the country to increase lagging vaccination rates, with health workers going door-to-door to administer shots.

"I make them understand how important vaccines are to escape from coronavirus," health worker Asmita Koladiya, who is forced to take her infant daughter along with her because of a lack of childcare, told Reuters.

In the country's capital Delhi, as new infections of the Omicron variant fell sharply off the peak, authorities further eased curbs and said they will allow schools and colleges to reopen from Monday, and permit private offices to be fully staffed.

The city's sports complexes will also reopen, its Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia said in a webcast on Friday.

RECONCILIATION WITH TIME, GRIEF

India's cumulative tally of 500,055 deaths on Friday included 1,072 fatalities reported over the last 24 hours, according to the federal health ministry. Out of this, 335 deaths were reported from the southern state of Kerala that has, for weeks, been updating data with deaths from last year.

Kerala, with less than 3% of India's 1.35 billion population, accounts for nearly 11% of the total deaths reported in the country.

"Some states such as Kerala are recording their backlog deaths under judicial pressure, although not all states have done that," said Gautam Menon, a professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University near the capital who has been tracking the spread of the virus.

In Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat, authorities have received over 100,000 claims for COVID-19 compensation, of which 87,000 claims have been approved, according to a senior government official.

The number of claims received is nearly 10 times the official COVID-19 death toll of 10,545, as per government data.

"There has not been any under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths...The policy for paying compensation is very liberal as per the Supreme Court's directives, which is why the number of applicants is more than the COVID-19 deaths," the official said, declining to be identified due to the sensitive nature of discussions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india...id-19-experts-count-millions-more-2022-02-04/
 
India releases 2020 death data ahead of WHO Covid mortality study it objects

India registered about 475,000 more total deaths in 2020 than the previous year, government data released months ahead of schedule on Tuesday showed, as the World Health Organisation (WHO) readies its estimates of excess Covid-19 deaths whose methodology New Delhi has opposed.

Some experts estimate India's actual Covid death toll is as high as 4 million, about eight times the official figure, especially as a record wave driven by the Delta variant killed many people in April and May of last year. The WHO's estimate will be published on Thursday.

Vinod Kumar Paul, a top health official who has overseen India's fight against the pandemic, said there was nothing "dramatic" in the total death data for 2020 and that those were "absolute, correct and counted numbers".

He said the data showing 8.1 million total deaths in India in 2020 was released by the Office of the Registrar General two to three months in advance because of the attention on the country's Covid toll.

"There is a public narrative in the media, based on various modelling estimates, that India's Covid-19 deaths are many times the reported figure - that's not the case in reality," he told state TV.

"We now have actual data for 2020, there is no need to do any modelling now. We will have actual, robust data for 2021 too. Modelling can lead to overestimation, absurd estimation."

The death count grew slower in the country of 1.35 billion people in 2020 than in the previous two years, the data showed.

India officially reported 148,738 Covid-19 deaths in 2020, with the tally jumping to 523,889 on Tuesday out of more than 43 million cumulative infections. Only the United States and Brazil have recorded more deaths as of Tuesday.

Countries around the world reported only 1.83 million Covid-19 deaths in 2020 but the WHO estimates excess mortality of at least 3 million globally for that year.

India has said it does not agree with the WHO's methodology, though the scientists working on the latest estimates have defended it.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1688077/i...ahead-of-who-covid-mortality-study-it-objects
 
New Delhi: India has strongly refuted the World Health Organisation's use of mathematical model to calculate the number of Covid deaths, saying the "figure is totally removed from reality". Contending that the country has an "extremely robust" system of births and deaths registration, the Union health ministry, in its rebuttal, called the WHO's system of data collection "statistically unsound and scientifically questionable".

In a report released today, WHO said between January 2020 and December 2021, there were 4.7 million "excess" Covid deaths in India -- the maximum number that's 10 times the official figures and almost a third of Covid deaths globally. The global figure, according to the report, was 15 million -- more than double the official figure of 6 million.

In 2020, India recorded 4,74,806 deaths as excess -- meaning over and above normal -- under the Civil Registration System.

"India has consistently questioned WHO's own admission that data in respect of seventeen Indian states was obtained from some websites and media reports and was used in their mathematical model," the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said.

"This reflects a statistically unsound and scientifically questionable methodology of data collection for making excess mortality projections in case of India," the statement added. "Despite India's objection to the process, methodology and outcome of this modelling exercise, WHO has released the excess mortality estimates without adequately addressing India's concerns," the ministry said.

"Throughout the process of dialogue, engagement and communication with WHO, WHO has projected different excess mortality figures for India citing multiple models, which itself raises questions on the validity and robustness of the models used," the statement read.

Pointing out that data from the Civil Registration System 2020 was shared with WHO for preparation of the excess mortality report, the ministry said, "Despite communicating this data to WHO for supporting their publication, WHO for reasons best known to them conveniently chose to ignore the available data submitted by India and published the excess mortality estimates for which the methodology, source of data, and the outcomes has been consistently questioned by India".

In its report WHO said, "Excess mortality is calculated as the difference between the number of deaths that have occurred and the number that would be expected in the absence of the pandemic based on data from earlier years".

"Excess mortality includes deaths associated with COVID-19 directly (due to the disease) or indirectly (due to the pandemic's impact on health systems and society). Deaths linked indirectly to COVID-19 are attributable to other health conditions for which people were unable to access prevention and treatment because health systems were overburdened by the pandemic," the report read.

WHO also said they chose the mathematical model as many countries "still lack capacity for reliable mortality surveillance and therefore do not collect and generate the data needed to calculate excess mortality".

NDTV
 
This is a bit off-topic - but is anyone following FDA Pfizer data releases (that were ordered by the courts in Texas) ? The information released is related to the efficacy and safety of the Covid-19 vaccine - very, very interesting to read through the website of the medical and scientific, as well as journalistic, professionals that won the case against the FDA, which had intended to keep the documents secret for about 75 years (a bit strange in itself, since it only took a year or less to develop the vaccines).

Data releases will continue to take place at regular intervals throughout the year - if there is bad news regarding these vaccines would Western governments and corporate media manufacture distractions?

'numerous public health officials, media outlets, journalists, scientists,
politicians, public figures, and others with large social or media platforms have publicly raised
questions regarding the sufficiency of the data and information, the adequacy of the review, and
appropriateness of the analyses relied upon to license the Pfizer Vaccine, including a number of
the scientists and journalists that are members of PHMPT. For example, on June 1, 2021, a group
of 27 clinicians, scientists, and patient advocates, including PHMPT members Peter Doshi, senior
editor for The BMJ and associate professor of pharmaceutical health services research at the
University of Maryland School of Pharmacy,16 and Peter A. McCullough, professor of medicine
at Texas A&M College of Medicine, filed a Citizen Petition17 with the FDA, claiming that the
available evidence for licensure of the Pfizer Vaccine “is simply not mature enough at this point
to adequately judge whether clinical benefits outweigh the risks in all populations.”18 Separately,
Peter Doshi has publicly questioned the lack of transparency regarding the vaccine approval
process19 which Peter Marks publicly disputed.20 Andrew Kheriaty, professor of psychiatry at UCI
12 Id.
13 Id.
14 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-...a-approval-watch-live-stream-today2021-08-23/ (last visited 8/27/2021).
15 See, e.g., https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/safety-of-vaccines.html#:~:text=COVID%
2D19%20vaccines%20are%20safe,vaccine%20as%20soon%20as%20possible. (last visited 8/27/2021). See also
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/vaccine-efficacy-effectiveness-and-protection (“COVID-19
vaccines have proven to be safe, effective and life-saving.”) (last visited 8/27/2021); https://www.
doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/COVID19/VaccineInformation/SafetyandEffectiveness (“COVID-19 vaccines are safe”)
(last visited 8/27/2021); https://www.wlns.com/news/gov-whitm...-the-fda-approval-ofpfizers-covid-19-vaccine/ (quoting Governor Whitmer referring to the Pfizer Vaccine as a “safe, effective COVID-19
vaccine”) (last visited 8/27/2021).
16 https://www.bmj.com/about-bmj/editorial-staff/peter-doshi (last visited 8/27/2021).
17 https://www.regulations.gov/document/FDA-2021-P-0521-0001 (last visited 8/27/2021).
18 See https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/06/0...ully-approving-any-covid19-vaccine-this-year/ (last visited 8/27/2021).
19 See https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/2...the-first-full-approval-of-a-covid19-vaccine/ (last visited 8/27/2021); https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-
effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/ (last visited 8/27/2021); https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/
11/26/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-lets-be-cautious-and-first-see-the-full-data/ (last
visited 8/27/2021).
20 https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/17...ff-its-review-of-the-pfizer-biontech-vaccine/ (last
visited 8/27/2021).
Page 5 of 6

School of Medicine, Director of the Medical Ethics Program at UCI Health,21 and a member of
PHMPT, has also questioned the FDA’s approval process. For example, in an article published in
the Wall Street Journal, Dr. Kheriaty questioned the need for student vaccination requirements
based on, among other things, a review22 by the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products
Advisory Committee that indicates a risk of heart inflammation after vaccination.23 Government
officials have raised similar concerns about the lack of transparency in the review process, arguing
that it is “essential” for the FDA to, among other things, “make the data generated by clinical trials
and supporting documents submitted to the FDA by developers available to the public[.]” 24
PHMPT incorporated by reference, as if cited and fully set forth herein, any and all articles, media,
and publications regarding or reflecting the public discussion, discourse and debate regarding the
Pfizer Vaccine, including all matters related to the licensure of this product.
Given this widespread and ongoing public debate, the medical and scientific community
and the public has an immediate need to review the data and information underlying the licensure
of the Pfizer Vaccine. Public disclosure of this information will inform this ongoing public debate.
Releasing this data should also confirm the FDA’s conclusion and thus increase confidence in the
safety and efficacy of the Pfizer Vaccine. The FDA should produce the data and information
necessary to address this widespread public debate by immediately producing the information
requested in this FOIA request.

There is also an urgent need for the public to have immediate access to the data and
information underlying the licensure of the Pfizer Vaccine because, over the objections of many,
this product is being mandated to individuals across the country by the federal government


https://phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/IR0546-FDA-Pfizer-Approval-FINAL.pdf
 
vaguely recall some poster on PP claiming actual death toll could be as high as 10 times the reported figure.
That was me.

In April 2021 I put up links to research by the New York Times and BBC showing that cremations and deaths were more than ten times higher than normal that month, and that rather than 300,000 deaths it appeared that there had probably been around 3 million.

That was inconvenient, because the BJP has systematically lied about Covid deaths to avoid the electoral consequences of their incompetence and the mass deaths they caused.

I was attacked by Indian nationalist trolls on this forum. But I was right.
 
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I barely survived Covid in April 21. At that time most fatalities occur. However a large number of death was not directly connected to Covid. Covid scare during that time pretty much packed every hospital and oxygen availability got scarce. I got extremely lucky to have a relative ( a high ranking doctor) who somehow managed to got me admitted in a hospital which had a side plant producing oxygen.
Things got so bad that one of my relative who was "Padma Shri" got covid and could not find a space in decent hospital early. So he sadly passed away.
People in serious conditions from non Covid suffered alot during that time and many of them could not survive. Lack of oxygen was the primary cause of most death.

What government did was to count only direct Covid deaths. That too they under reported. While i do agree number of deaths were much higher , it wasn't as much as WHO claimed. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

Government fudging with with numbers has been there happening since forever. It has happened before on incidents like Bhopal GAS tragedy. Where government at that time severely under reported deaths.
 
The WHO is saying deaths from covid and the impact of the pandemic is around 15 million. So with hospitals overwhelmed many ppl would have died due to not getting the required care.
 
India on Monday expressed it disappointment and concern at 75th World Health Assembly over the manner in which a report was prepared and published by the World Health Organisation (WHO) on all cause excess mortality during Covid-19, where country-specific authentic data was not taken into account.

Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya conveyed the collective disappointment of the Central Council of Health and Family Welfare, a representative body of health ministers from all states of India, as they passed a unanimous resolution regarding the approach and methodology of WHO on excess mortality reports.

Speaking at the assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, Mandaviya said, “India would like to express its disappointment over the manner in which the report by WHO on all-cause excess mortality was prepared and published, ignoring the concern expressed by India and other countries.”

In a report released on May 5, the WHO had said nearly 15 million people were killed globally either by the coronavirus or by its impact, more than double the official death count of six million. According to the report, there were 4.7 million Covid deaths in India – 10 times the official figure and almost a third of Covid deaths globally.

He further said Prime Minister Narendra Modi had highlighted the need for building a resilient global supply chain to enable equitable access to vaccines and medicines, streamlining WHO's approval process for vaccines, therapeutics reforms and strengthening WHO to build a more resilient global health secure architecture. “As a responsible member, India is ready to play a key role in these efforts,” Mandaviya said.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/indi...s-covid-mortality-report-101653321268706.html
 
India reports 702 fresh Covid cases, 6 deaths in last 24 hours: report

The recent surge in Covid-19 cases in India has led to six deaths and 702 new infections reported across the country as of Thursday, local media reports said citing the latest figures from the Indian health ministry

With this, the country’s active caseload stands at 4,097 amid growing concerns about the new JN.1 Covid variant, which was first reported in New Delhi on Wednesday, the city’s Health Minister Saurabh Bhardwaj was quoted as saying by India Today.

Two of the deaths were reported in Maharashtra, and one each in Karnataka, Kerala, West Bengal and New Delhi within the last 24 hours.

Classified as a variant of interest by the World Health Organisation (WHO), JN.1 is a sub-lineage of the Omicron variant and has been identified as the most prevalent strain in the United States, accounting for over 44 per cent of cases there.

The resurgence of cases in India is being closely monitored after the JN.1 variant was detected across several states, with the health ministry reporting a total of 109 cases as of December 26.

The highest number of cases were reported in Gujarat and Karnataka, with 36 and 34 cases respectively, followed by Goa, Maharashtra, Kerala, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana.

Experts warn that while the JN.1 variant is highly transmissible, it primarily causes mild symptoms similar to a common cold, affecting the upper respiratory tract.

SOURCE : DAWN NEWS
 
India reports 743 fresh Covid cases, Maharashtra govt warn citizens ahead of New Year

India recorded 743 fresh cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours. The total active caseload increased by seven, reaching 3,997, according to the Union Health Ministry.

With this, the total count of coronavirus cases in India since its outbreak in January 2020 has reached 4,50,12,484 with an increase of 743 cases in the last 24 hours. The death toll due to COVID-19 cases in India has risen to, 5,33,358 reflecting an increase of seven deaths in the last 24 hours.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has classified JN.1 as a separate "variant of interest" given its rapidly increasing spread but said it poses a "low" global public health risk.

Meanwhile, As many as 129 new cases of COVID-19 were recorded in Maharashtra on Friday, the health department said, adding that the number of patients infected with tiihe JN.1 variant remains at 10.

Covid Cases India LIVE Updates: A 58-year-old man has been tested positive for COVID-19 in Madhya Pradesh's Gwalior district and his sample sent for examining the new JN.1 variant of Covid-19, an official said.

The patient visited Bageshwar Dham, Chhatarpur a few days ago and he is undergoing treatment in home isolation.

Dean of Gajra Raja Medical College, Dr Akshay Nigam said, "It is the first case of Covid-19 in Gwalior Chambal division in recent surge. Five people were tested, out of which one is found positive. Recently, the patient had gone to Bageshwar Dham in Chhatarpur district, after returning from there he suffered from a cold and on the advice of doctors he got tested and was found positive in the test."

Source : The Mint
 

India reports over 1000 active Covid cases, Kerala, Maharashtra, Delhi see spikes​


Delhi has registered over 100 cases of Covid-19 with 99 cases recorded in the past week. 750 fresh infections have been reported in the last week in India.​


India reported as many as 752 new Covid-19 cases in the last one week, with the spike in infections taking the country’s overall caseload to over 1,000. Kerala, Maharashtra and Delhi were the states that saw the most number of new infections in the last one week.

Kerala reported 335 fresh infections, taking its total active cases to 430 while Maharashtra and Delhi saw 153 and 99 new cases respectively. Active Covid-19 cases in Maharashtra and Delhi now stand at 209 and 104, respectively, as per data released by the government on Monday (May 26) morning.

 
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