Is Pakistan doomed to split further?

[gazza619]

Will this ultimately happen? I mean there are areas of land in the western regions of Pakistan which are already semi autonomous.

If the country does break, I can only imagine PMLN ruling Punjab, PPP ruling Sindh, KPK under Taliban. God knows what will happen to Baluchistan.

Is there anything that can stop this from happening?

 

[MenInG]

Why is this an issue now? Do you feel that this is somehow related to the current political mess?

 

[rickroll]

Will this ultimately happen? I mean there are areas of land in the western regions of Pakistan which are already semi autonomous.

If the country does break, I can only imagine PMLN ruling Punjab, PPP ruling Sindh, KPK under Taliban. God knows what will happen to Baluchistan.

Is there anything that can stop this from happening?

Very real possibility of this happening. The road ahead to avoid it is not easy and I would be skeptical of anyone advocating one off or quick fix solutions.

1. Remove all controls of the military establishment and get away from this shadow military dictatorship
2. Make all Fauj owned businesses publicly listed and remove ex-military business leaders there, and make those businesses more merit based for everyone
3. Create a law such that if you served in the top military role, you cannot move to another country post-retirement (I believe India has such a law that helped them curtail powers of military leaders)
4. Become a true democracy that has some level of meritocracy in the party as opposed to the current zamindars or messiahs
5. Reduce the strong religious undertones (start with removing draconian blasphemy laws for instance) and take steps to prevent aam aadmi to be misled by these 1000s of fake mullahs in Pakistan
6. Improve education access and quality at all levels to sustain any initial progress onto the next generation of educated youth

 

[RajBan]

Will this ultimately happen? I mean there are areas of land in the western regions of Pakistan which are already semi autonomous.

If the country does break, I can only imagine PMLN ruling Punjab, PPP ruling Sindh, KPK under Taliban. God knows what will happen to Baluchistan.

Is there anything that can stop this from happening?

Western part of Pakistan was semi autonomous since many decades. And is it really that bad in Pakistan or most of it is amplified by media frenzy and social media echo? It still has a functional system in two of its biggest provinces and probably urban KP. I will think Myanmar or Sudan or Somalia or many African countries have it much worse .

 

[JattMaula]

Nah. No real incentive for anyone to split.

 

[wasim-fan]

Always recommend this book to anyone who wants to understand Pakistan. Pakistan - A negotiated state by Antony Levin. It's not a conventional state. It's negotiated existence and balance of power between different factions with an overarching military.

In such an abnormal state, no one can predict what can happen. However, one can predict that chances of success and stability is limited unless the fundamental structure is altered.

In a normal state, political parties and military would not be going after each other while economy is crashing. But here it's possible because the incentives are different. There are factions who gain even if the country loses.

So to answer your question, during the first split no one in Pakistan believed that it would happen. And today too you ask them. No one will believe it will happen. I say follow the numbers. You will have your answer.

 

[Gharib Aadmi]

Thanks to nukes this will never happen. Also people in Punjab, Sindh, and KPK value there Pakistani identity more than there ethnic one.

There was a Pew Reserch survey on this.

When asked whether they think of themselves primarily as Pakistani or as a member of their ethnic group, roughly nine-in-ten (89%) say they see themselves first as Pakistani.

Majorities among all four major ethnic groups analyzed say they think of themselves first as Pakistani. Close to all Punjabis (96%) – the nation’s largest group – say they see themselves first as Pakistanis, as do 92% each of those who identify themselves as Pashtuns or Muhajirs.

Sindhis are somewhat more likely than other ethnic groups to identify with their ethnicity. Just over half of Sindhi people (55%) say they see themselves as Pakistani first, while close to three-in-ten (28%) say they first identify as Sindhi; another 16% volunteer that they see themselves as both equally.

In terms of Pakistan’s regions, large majorities in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) (98%) and Punjab (96%) say they see themselves as Pakistanis first, rather than identify themselves first by their ethnic background. Ethnic identification is slightly more common in Baluchistan and Sindh. In Baluchistan, the southwestern territory with rugged terrain and sparse population, 32% say they identify themselves first by their ethnicity and 58% say they identify themselves first as Pakistanis. In Sindh, with its concentration of Sindhi people, 72% say they think of themselves first as Pakistani rather than by their ethnic background; 13% think of themselves first by their ethnic identification; and 10% volunteer that they think of themselves as both equally.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2009/08/13/chapter-2-religion-law-and-society/

 

[wasim-fan]

Thanks to nukes this will never happen. Also people in Punjab, Sindh, and KPK value there Pakistani identity more than there ethnic one.

There was a Pew Reserch survey on this.



https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2009/08/13/chapter-2-religion-law-and-society/

1) This is 2009 pew report. Today the inflation is 40% with half the population still feeling from floods. More than 50% of children out of school and average of population is 23 years. With no food on the table, the questions being asked today are different.

2) How does nukes prevent factions within the country ? I can understand it is threat to enemies. Bangladesh would have happened with or without nukes.

 

[Gharib Aadmi]

1) This is 2009 pew report. Today the inflation is 40% with half the population still feeling from floods. More than 50% of children out of school and average of population is 23 years. With no food on the table, the questions being asked today are different.

If i had to guess the numbers would be even higher now of people who identify as Pakistani first. As more time passes by the stronger the identity gets. Those young people had parents and grandparents and great grand parents who were Pakistani. Not to mention there has been a considerable amount of inter marriage between the ethnic groups, which will make the children think of themselves as Pakistani first.

Also outside of Baluchistan the ethnic parties dont have a major vote bank now.

2) How does nukes prevent factions within the country ? I can understand it is threat to enemies. Bangladesh would have happened with or without nukes.

With nukes no country is invading you. So without the help of the Indian Army there would be no Bangladesh. Its difficult for an armed militant group to beat a professional army.

 

[wasim-fan]

If i had to guess the numbers would be even higher now of people who identify as Pakistani first. As more time passes by the stronger the identity gets. Those young people had parents and grandparents and great grand parents who were Pakistani. Not to mention there has been a considerable amount of inter marriage between the ethnic groups, which will make the children think of themselves as Pakistani first.

Also outside of Baluchistan the ethnic parties dont have a major vote bank now.



With nukes no country is invading you. So without the help of the Indian Army there would be no Bangladesh. Its difficult for an armed militant group to beat a professional army.

So the genocide would have successfully continued in Bangladesh and they would have been forcibly integrated. The whole Bangladesh issue was not about Indian army. It was triggered by not allowing the party with most seats to become the PM of Pakistan. So instead of making him rightfully the PM the army could have crushed all dissent and successfully crushed democracy with the nukes.

We don't learn from history. No wonder it repeats itself.

 

[Gharib Aadmi]

So the genocide would have successfully continued in Bangladesh and they would have been forcibly integrated. The whole Bangladesh issue was not about Indian army. It was triggered by not allowing the party with most seats to become the PM of Pakistan. So instead of making him rightfully the PM the army could have crushed all dissent and successfully crushed democracy with the nukes.

We don't learn from history. No wonder it repeats itself.

Yes that is exactly what would have happened, and it goes without saying it would have been wrong. The plan was to expel the Hindu population and give the land to Bengali Muslims so there would be a loyal population in East Pakistan. In time the Muslim population would have been assimilated.

So the genocide would have successfully continued in Bangladesh and they would have been forcibly integrated. The whole Bangladesh issue was not about Indian army. It was triggered by not allowing the party with most seats to become the PM of Pakistan. So instead of making him rightfully the PM the army could have crushed all dissent and successfully crushed democracy with the nukes.

We don't learn from history. No wonder it repeats itself.

The problem came before that. It was Ayub's coup, which derailed democracy and led to founding fathers being declared traitor. It was the rigged election against Fatima Jinnah, who was popular in East Pakistan.

Mujeeb's won a landslide based on the six points, which was independence all but in name. At that point there should have been negotiations to peacefully separate West and East Pakistan.

And of course Mujeeb should have been allowed to be PM of a united Pakistan if he wanted. And maybe then the Bengali's would have changed there mind and not want to secede, as they would be the largest ethnic group in Pakistan.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

So the genocide would have successfully continued in Bangladesh and they would have been forcibly integrated. The whole Bangladesh issue was not about Indian army. It was triggered by not allowing the party with most seats to become the PM of Pakistan. So instead of making him rightfully the PM the army could have crushed all dissent and successfully crushed democracy with the nukes.

We don't learn from history. No wonder it repeats itself.

I don't think there's much to learn from Bangladesh. Bengal is still a state separated by a fence on religious lines.

 

[mazkhan]

Balochistan and kpk are gonners

After the force afghan taliban showed the iranians the other day and had their posts overrun and troops In tears , they will exert their force due to to the ethnic kinship in those provinces is the same as Afghans plus you have millions of Afghans in those provinces already there our imbeciles don't even know how many are in the country forget those provinces they have flooded major cities like islamabad pindi and karachi in millions .

I also suspect gilgit baltistan voices of seccesion will be heard there although if the mess gets too much I wouldn't put it past the indians to annex the remaining kashmir after all bajwa is on record on saying pakistan army in particular the ground force are totally incapable of going to war with india its from horses mouth and with the country being bankrupt and defaulted according to khwaja asif it doesn't matter how munshi is spinning things the country has already defaulted bankrupt countries can't bankroll a conflict and that too against a huge country like India. These Charlie's are gonna get a humiliating spanking very shortly by taliban and India and it will make 1971 debacle look miniscule the surrender and capitulation will be worse and we were laughing at the Afghan army for running away

 

[rickroll]

Balochistan and kpk are gonners

After the force afghan taliban showed the iranians the other day and had their posts overrun and troops In tears , they will exert their force due to to the ethnic kinship in those provinces is the same as Afghans plus you have millions of Afghans in those provinces already there our imbeciles don't even know how many are in the country forget those provinces they have flooded major cities like islamabad pindi and karachi in millions .

I also suspect gilgit baltistan voices of seccesion will be heard there although if the mess gets too much I wouldn't put it past the indians to annex the remaining kashmir after all bajwa is on record on saying pakistan army in particular the ground force are totally incapable of going to war with india its from horses mouth and with the country being bankrupt and defaulted according to khwaja asif it doesn't matter how munshi is spinning things the country has already defaulted bankrupt countries can't bankroll a conflict and that too against a huge country like India. These Charlie's are gonna get a humiliating spanking very shortly by taliban and India and it will make 1971 debacle look miniscule the surrender and capitulation will be worse and we were laughing at the Afghan army for running away

Afghan Taliban is not a proper trained army. They are more of a ragtag paramilitary force at best who probably had some element of surprise against the Iranians. Is it realistic to expect them to gain territory from a nuclear armed nation? That seems bit of a stretch but maybe I'm missing something here.

Similar nuclear deterrence applies for Indians too. May not matter if Pakistan is bankrupt or near bankrupt, it would be foolhardy to get an invasion force into a nuclear armed country that does not have a no-first-use policy. The Indians probably are also aware that people in Gilgit are very hostile to India (everyone there is aware of Indian actions in IOK).

The tough geographic terrain of Gilgit area makes invasion more difficult. Combine the tough terrain with hostile population, and the possible diplomatic backlash for India - if invading is level 1 difficulty, then holding onto that invasion is level 5 difficulty even if you discount the nuclear deterrence. The Indians know this too (never underestimate the adversary) and may probably just push for current LOC to be international border and be done with it. IMO, their "akhand bharat" BJP shills are just lunatics or vote bank talkers. In reality the Indians will be happier with LOC becoming international border.

I believe that the real threat for Pakistan to be split will be internal and not external. It may not be Afghan Taliban but maybe TTP and similar fanatics pulling away at KPK areas. It may not be Indians but Kashmiris themselves (even in Azad Kashmir) openly favoring independence and wanting to split away. It may be the Balochis gaining more voice, power, and foothold becoming emboldened after seeing any success TTP and the likes may have in KPK.

If these happened in a sustained manner then an MQM like entity can happen again in Sindh calling for a separate Sindh. Think of these in the context of people being fed up with Fauj. So how much of these multiple forces can the nuclear armed Punjab dominated army keep quelling when it is probably financially bankrupt with lower morale? At what point will this then turn into a Yugoslavia type situation where the Punjab dominated army is seen as the equivalent of the Serbs, and then for international forces to step in (with an added objective of securing the nukes), and thus balkanizing Pakistan?

Yes there are lots of IF situations in the above scenarios. But do be aware that in geopolitics it is a domino effect. Once if the first few dominoes fall and there is less power of resistance, the other dominos fall easily. Also remember that money is everything. Less money is the equivalent of a human running around with less immunity and it can be a question of time when a disease enters.

 

[Nikhil_cric]

Pakistan will remain a single state for as long as it is nuclear. If the international community manages to force nuclear weapons out of PAK, then that would be a prdcipating factor which could lead to its break up

 

[Mockingbird]

Pakistan will remain a single state for as long as it is nuclear. If the international community manages to force nuclear weapons out of PAK, then that would be a prdcipating factor which could lead to its break up

What will Pakistan do if it’s own states start revolting - start nuking their own people? Or Nuke the Talibans in Kabul and risk their own Pashtun population turning against them? Nukes can act as deterrent against enemies, not against their own.

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

Pakistan will remain a single state for as long as it is nuclear. If the international community manages to force nuclear weapons out of PAK, then that would be a prdcipating factor which could lead to its break up

That would explain why the international community is not forcing nuclear weapons out of Pakistan. It would be a disaster for India to see the break up of the country.

 

[amax]

So the genocide would have successfully continued in Bangladesh and they would have been forcibly integrated. The whole Bangladesh issue was not about Indian army. It was triggered by not allowing the party with most seats to become the PM of Pakistan. So instead of making him rightfully the PM the army could have crushed all dissent and successfully crushed democracy with the nukes.

We don't learn from history. No wonder it repeats itself.

extremely unnatural geographic separation was not an issue?

 

[DeadlyVenom]

What will Pakistan do if it’s own states start revolting - start nuking their own people? Or Nuke the Talibans in Kabul and risk their own Pashtun population turning against them? Nukes can act as deterrent against enemies, not against their own.

What would India do in such a scenario? Or Russia? Or China?

 

[Romali_rotti]

Only place which could break away from Pakistan is probably Balochistan, everything else seems pretty normal.

 

[wasim-fan]

extremely unnatural geographic separation was not an issue?

If the objective was to crush the dissent, then maybe it was the issue. But people forget a few things :-

1) Mujib was rightful PM of Pakistan and was open to talks till the last stage.

2) Bhutto and the army lied to him and deceitfully attacked his party workers.

3) Bangladesh was milked and colonized by Punjabi establishment and we're imposed foreign language. Interestingly Jinnah in his first speech in Bangladesh in English said that Urdu would be the first language. Just measure of how out of touch up they were.

So, I think chances of break up are there if the social cohesion is tested by economic failure. Usually fissures get exaggerated when people are struggling to make ends meet.

For those who want to know more of what went down in east Bengal. https://youtu.be/ncXBoovBcSI

 

[Nikhil_cric]

That would explain why the international community is not forcing nuclear weapons out of Pakistan. It would be a disaster for India to see the break up of the country.

India has no relevance here. This is more to do with the political and economic instability in Pakistan. Inflation at 38 % is absolutely devastating for the common man. The only advantage I can see for the various ethnicities/geographical regions of Pakistan is the fact that a united Pakistani nuclear state would provide security for all and that's the only reason anyone would want to be a part of a united Pakistani nation at this point.

If Pakistan is denuclearised, it will be an enormous challenge to hold it all together in my opinion.

Notice how there was a recent disclosure of Pakistans nuclear capabilities almost as a threat to any internal actors who wanted to challenge the military. Without nukes, that could embolden separatist tendencies within the nation.

 

[amax]

If the objective was to crush the dissent, then maybe it was the issue. But people forget a few things :-

1) Mujib was rightful PM of Pakistan and was open to talks till the last stage.

2) Bhutto and the army lied to him and deceitfully attacked his party workers.

3) Bangladesh was milked and colonized by Punjabi establishment and we're imposed foreign language. Interestingly Jinnah in his first speech in Bangladesh in English said that Urdu would be the first language. Just measure of how out of touch up they were.

So, I think chances of break up are there if the social cohesion is tested by economic failure. Usually fissures get exaggerated when people are struggling to make ends meet.

For those who want to know more of what went down in east Bengal. https://youtu.be/ncXBoovBcSI

you are right about economic failures increasing fault lines, but the thing going in favor of Pakistan at present is that , all major ethnicities of Pakistan , even though have issues with each other dont have other viable options.

 

[rickroll]

That would explain why the international community is not forcing nuclear weapons out of Pakistan. It would be a disaster for India to see the break up of the country.

India is irrelevant in this and no big reason to bring India as an after-effect factor in such a logical discourse about Pakistan's internal issues.

 

[rickroll]

What would India do in such a scenario? Or Russia? Or China?

Incur a similar risk that Pakistan is incurring. No nation could be immune from that. If China/Russia/India have severe economic failures, radical insurgencies, no education or sense of home for common people, and a central governing entity that is seen as hostile to common people - then they also risk imploding from the inside regardless of their nuclear weapons. Big difference is that they have not let their countries go low in all of those factors.

Matter of fact, guess what something similar had already happened - collapse of the Soviet Union

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

India is irrelevant in this and no big reason to bring India as an after-effect factor in such a logical discourse about Pakistan's internal issues.

A. break up of Pakistan would definitely be something which affects India, I can understand you want to discuss only internal implications, but then just ignore the comment and carry on discussing the aspects you want to.

 

[rickroll]

A. break up of Pakistan would definitely be something which affects India, I can understand you want to discuss only internal implications, but then just ignore the comment and carry on discussing the aspects you want to.

Of course yes. It affects India and all other neighboring countries too. But India does not have a say in the breaking up or not of Pakistan is what I was alluding to. If we break this into Cause-Effect, India along with Iran will be on the effects side and not the cause side hence they will not be a factor in the analysis of whether Pakistan will break up or not. If the discourse is "What will be the effects of Pakistan breaking up", then India is a factor. But for this thread, I would say India and Iran could be irrelevant.

Among Pakistan's neighbors perhaps Afghanistan or China are relevant to the "Cause" side of the cause-effect scenario and could be contributors to Pakistan breaking up. Afghanistan through its support of TTP and China through economic actions that may make things worse for Pakistan.

India (or Indians) may think they are some regional or emerging super power but in reality they are largely a non-entity when it comes to immediate factors for the break up of Pakistan. If anything, any Indian involvement will coalesce Pakistan together against a common enemy and stop the breaking up of Pakistan.

 

[Rana]

It might as well split

There is one clear ideology that cannot coincide with the other.

 

[Rana]

Give Imran Khan and his supporters one part of Pakistan and be done with it. Let them call it Insafistan or Imranistan for all I care

I cannot see them ever wanting prosperity in the other part of the country

 

[rickroll]

Give Imran Khan and his supporters one part of Pakistan and be done with it. Let them call it Insafistan or Imranistan for all I care

I cannot see them ever wanting prosperity in the other part of the country

Which part of Pakistan would that be?

 

[moghul]

Very real possibility of this happening. The road ahead to avoid it is not easy and I would be skeptical of anyone advocating one off or quick fix solutions.

1. Remove all controls of the military establishment and get away from this shadow military dictatorship
2. Make all Fauj owned businesses publicly listed and remove ex-military business leaders there, and make those businesses more merit based for everyone
3. Create a law such that if you served in the top military role, you cannot move to another country post-retirement (I believe India has such a law that helped them curtail powers of military leaders)
4. Become a true democracy that has some level of meritocracy in the party as opposed to the current zamindars or messiahs
5. Reduce the strong religious undertones (start with removing draconian blasphemy laws for instance) and take steps to prevent aam aadmi to be misled by these 1000s of fake mullahs in Pakistan
6. Improve education access and quality at all levels to sustain any initial progress onto the next generation of educated youth

That will never happen, Pakistan going to disintegrate in 20 years or so. Imran Khan was the last hope to avoid this from happening , no hope now.

 

[JaDed]

Just to let you know Afghanistan, Congo, Zimbabwe , Rwanda haven’t disintegrated..

 

[Ahmad-GERMANFC]

Not happening primarily because none of the other provinces have any viable option

 

[Buffet]

Just to let you know Afghanistan, Congo, Zimbabwe , Rwanda haven’t disintegrated..

+1

Disintegration does not happen so easily.