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Is Pakistan in danger of going the Sri Lanka way due to economic pressures?

Financial emergency ruled out
Creation, spread of 'false messages' against national interest, says finance ministry

The finance ministry has ruled out the possibility of declaring financial emergency in the country and said that the creation and spread of such false messages are against the national interest in these times of economic hardship.

A mere reading of the nine points mentioned in the message indicates how far-fetched those suggestions are.

“It is also quite inappropriate to equate Pakistan with Sri Lanka, given the inherent strength and diversity of the country’s economy,” the ministry said in a statement issued Tuesday night.

It states that a false message about supposed economic emergency proposals has recently been circulating on social media.

The Finance Division not only strongly refutes the assertions made in the said message but also categorically denies them and that there is no plan to impose an economic emergency.

The message is unfortunately aimed at creating uncertainty about the economic situation in the country and can only be spread by those who do not want to see Pakistan prosper. The present difficult economic situation is mainly the result of exogenous factors like the commodity supercycle, the Russia-Ukraine war, the global recession, trade headwinds, the Fed’s increase in policy rates, and the devastation wreaked by unprecedented floods.

The government has been making its utmost efforts to minimise the impact of such external factors, even when faced with the economic consequences of unprecedented floods and having to meet IMF conditionalities. The government remains committed to completing the IMF programme while meeting all external debt repayments on time.

In this challenging economic situation, the government has put in place several austerity measures with the approval of the federal cabinet. Such actions are public knowledge and are aimed at eliminating non-essential expenditures. Similarly, the government has been debating energy conservation, mainly to reduce the import bill. Such deliberations will continue in the cabinet, and all decisions will be taken in consultation with all stakeholders and the best national interest. With the current government’s efforts, the IMF programme has come back on track, and negotiations leading to the Ninth Review are now at an advanced stage. The government’s recent efforts have resulted, among others, in lower current account deficits in recent months and the achievement of FBR revenue targets. Shortly, pressure on the external account will be relieved. While there is still a need for structural adjustments in the medium term, the country’s economic situation is improving.

The Finance Division urged the people of Pakistan to contribute towards economic betterment and stability and not to pay heed to malicious rumour mongering, which is against the national interest of Pakistan.

Meanwhile, ambassadors from China, the United States and United Kingdom have assured Finance Minister Ishaq Dar of their full support to Pakistan in the rehabilitation of flood-hit areas as Islamabad is trying to shore up support of the international community to provide relief to the calamity-stricken people, Geo reported. The ambassadors held separate meetings on Tuesday with the finance minister, where matters related to bilateral relations, the economy and the government’s works in the flood-hit areas came under discussion, according to the Finance Division.

In his meeting with outgoing British High Commissioner Dr Christian Turner along with United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Consultant Michael Barber, Dar apprised them of the ongoing post-flood reconstruction and rehabilitation programmes. Dar revealed that the overall reconstruction and rehabilitation phase is going to take five-seven fiscal years. Senator Dar apprised the officials about the overall economic outlook of the country and also shared that Pakistan is meeting its external financial obligations and has recently repaid a $1 billion bond.

While giving a briefing about the policies and measures being undertaken by the government for safeguarding the vulnerable segments of society, Dar mentioned that the Centre has a “comprehensive and pragmatic” programme in terms of revenues and expenditures for meeting its national as well as international financial obligations. Turner, whose tenure as the high commissioner will end next month, commended the practical measures being undertaken by the government and offered all possible help from the British government for the people of Pakistan in mitigating the socio-economic impacts of the post-flood crisis.

Meanwhile, in his meeting with Ambassador of China to Pakistan Nong Rong, Dar highlighted the long-standing and deep-rooted relations between both countries. “It was shared that China and Pakistan have strong bilateral ties in a number of economic avenues,” the statement from the Finance Division read.Both leaders discussed further deepening of these ties in the economic as well as financial sectors.

The finance minister also expressed grief on the sad demise of former Chinese President Jiang Zemin and said that it was a great loss for China as well as Pakistan as the deceased was a great friend to Islamabad. Senator Dar told the ambassador about the ongoing reconstruction and rehabilitation programme being undertaken by the incumbent government after the deadly floods. The finance minister commended the support of the Chinese government in these hard times and shared that the government was taking various measures to protect the vulnerable segment of society.

He also said that the Government of Pakistan has a “realistic plan” for dealing with any upcoming expenditures regarding reconstruction and rehabilitation programmes in the flood-affected areas.

The finance minister further apprised the Chinese ambassador that the government remains committed to completing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme while meeting all external debt repayments on time. The Chinese ambassador appreciated the policy initiatives being taken by the government for sustaining and boosting fiscal and monetary stability. He shared goodwill gestures and assured of continuous support of the Chinese government to Pakistan and added that Beijing stands with the people of Pakistan and is willing to provide every possible assistance.

The finance minister, while meeting Ambassador of the United States Donald Blome highlighted the historic and durable bilateral relations with the US on the economic and trade front. Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Finance Tariq Bajwa, Secretary Finance Hamed Yaqoob Sheikh and other senior officers from the Finance Division participated in the meeting, according to a statement. The finance minister apprised the US ambassador about the ongoing post-flood reconstruction and rehabilitation projects being undertaken by the government. “It was also shared that the government is highly concerned about the well-being of the masses and, therefore, a number of measures are being undertaken in this regard.”

Both sides, according to the statement, shared other matters of common interest as well during the meeting. The finance minister apprised the US ambassador about the government’s comprehensive and pragmatic plans in terms of revenues and expenditures for meeting its national as well as international financial obligations.

US Ambassador Blome reciprocated the same sentiments on bilateral relations between the United States and Pakistan. He acknowledged the huge level of economic losses being faced by Pakistan due to the flood crisis and shared that the US government stands with Pakistan in such testing times. The finance minister commended the support of the US and said that Washington has always been a great support to Pakistan during tough times. Senator Dar emphasised the various economic avenues in which both countries can further deepen their economic relations.

On the other hand, Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Malik said on Tuesday that the coalition government was moving ahead with its plans to strike a much-anticipated deal for Russian crude oil at a discounted rate and a high-level delegation from Moscow will arrive in Islamabad on January 20, according to Geo News.

A day earlier, the minister said Russia had agreed to provide crude oil as well as gasoline and diesel to Pakistan at discounted rates.

In a statement, Malik claimed that the US would not impose sanctions on Pakistan for the proposed deal. “Our visit to Russia turned out to be more productive than expected.”

Brushing aside the claims of former prime minister Imran Khan about his alleged talks with Russia on oil imports, Malik took credit for the proposed deal and said that the minutes of their meetings with Moscow officials could prove their claims.

In response to a question about the country’s financial crisis, the minister stated that the government is not considering declaring an economic emergency. He maintained that the government recently paid $1 billion for Sukuk bonds. He maintained that the country would not default.

Malik said Russia did not have liquefied natural gas (LNG). “Talks with Russia’s private firms are underway for the import of LNG, while we have also engaged Russia’s state LNG producers,” Malik said.

According to the state minister, significant progress has been made in talks over the pipeline projects with Moscow.

Speaking to journalists, Malik said the country required 1% additional energy to meet the demand.

In response to a question, he said the government would ensure an uninterrupted gas supply to households during cooking hours.

“More gas is being supplied to the domestic sector in December 2022 compared to the last year,” the minister said.

The News PK
 
SBP’s forex reserves fall to near four-year low

The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) plunged $784 million to a nearly four-year low of $6.72 billion during the week that ended on Dec 2, the central bank said on Thursday.

According to the central bank data, the SBP reserves were last recorded below this level during the week ended on Jan 18, 2019, when it had some $6.64bn.

Net foreign reserves held by commercial banks now stand at $5.867bn, meaning the country’s total liquid foreign reserves are now $12.58bn.

Strengthening the foreign exchange reserves remained the top agenda of the new government since it took the helm in April. However, SBP’s reserves have since dropped by more than $4bn from around $10.9bn at the time.

Analyst say the falling reserves may make it more difficult for the country to repay foreign loans; the remaining amount of over $6.7bn is just enough to cover over a month’s imports.

SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad said in a podcast on Thursday that during the last five months, inflows remained just $4bn but the figure was expected to rise in the second half of the current fiscal year ending June 2023.

The central bank attributed the fall in foreign exchange reserves to a payment of $1bn against the maturity of sukuk (Islamic bonds). However, a senior analyst, who wished not to be named, said the $6.7bn reserves were not calculated after the payment for bonds.

Mr Ahmad said in the interview that the SBP paid $1bn and another $1.2bn to two commercial banks, which have agreed to relend the same amount in a few days.

The State Bank said that inflows of $500m from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) offset the SBP outflows.

Analysts and researchers have expressed concern about the country’s ability to pay back the huge amount of foreign loans. The frequent concerns have depressed the market and the exchange rate remained unstable during the ongoing fiscal year.

The country is now expecting another tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but the ninth-review talks have been delayed apparently due to Fund’s criticism over an increased fiscal deficit.

The government is unwilling to impose more taxes for higher revenues, while the IMF insists the government must consolidate the economy.

Independent economists believe the government needed to generate additional revenue of about Rs800bn to get the next IMF tranche.

However, the political cost of squeezing this extra revenue from citizens “is too high for the present government, which is the main hurdle”, the analyst said.

Meanwhile, the demand for dollars remains high in the interbank market, while the open market offers no hard currency. The dollar rose 0.09pc to close at Rs224.37 in the interbank market on Thursday.

However, most market players don’t trust the rates given by the State Bank, saying the deals were actually being done at higher prices.

DAWN
 
Ishaq Dar rules out economic default
Calls for curbing smuggling of wheat on war footings

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Saturday said that there was no chance of Pakistan to default, adding that the country was moving in the right direction.

Addressing a function organised by the APTMA, Dar recalled that in 2013 also the world was saying that Pakistan would default.

"We worked hard and gave the budget in five days and saved the country from default," he said.

Slamming the PTI, the finance minister observed that the former ruling party’s tenure was the "darkest period" in the country, adding that “more experiments” on economy cannot be done.

"We have to improve macroeconomic indicators. Here the rich get their loans waived off while poor widows have their assets frozen for non-payment of a few thousand [rupees]," he said.

The finance minister blamed the opposition for blocking the avenues of investment in the country by telling "fake corruption stories" to the world.

"The opposition is making frivolous statements for politics, which is damaging the reputation of Pakistan immensely," he added.

Dar said that he spent five years in exile for “improving financial management” and was "treated like a terrorist".

"At the pace we were going before, we should have been part of the G20," he said. "Today our economy is ranked 46th [in the word]."

He slammed his predecessors for devaluing the rupee "without a second thought".

The finance minister called for curbing the smuggling of wheat from the country on war footings.

He reminded that Pakistan had completed its IMF programme from 2013 to 2016, noting that it happened “only once” in the history of the country”.

Express Tribune
 
PTI Chairman Imran Khan on Sunday assailed the PDM government for bringing the country to the cusp of default, and accused the media of turning a blind eye towards economic matters and instead focusing on the Toshakhana wristwatch, which he said was rightfully his to “sell or do whatever I want to with it”.
 
Default threat still not over: Miftah Ismail
Miftah Ismail believes the path on which Pakistan is heading might take the country towards default as he called on the government to take steps to avert the looming threat

Former finance minister Miftah Ismail believes the path on which Pakistan is heading might take the country towards default as he called on the government to take steps to avert the looming threat.

“Pakistan should not default. However, I definitely believe that the path we are on might take us towards default as the economic challenges have increased. We should take steps to avoid the danger [of default],” Miftah said while speaking during Geo News’ programme “Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Kay Saath”. The former minister said the threat of default will keep looming over Pakistan until the government completes the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Ninth Review. “Pakistan is in jeopardy; it has gone back in jeopardy and as long as IMF is not back on the table, the threat of default will remain high,” Miftah, who held the post of finance minister for over five months, said. The former finance czar refused to accept PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s narrative of early elections and said that the previous (Imran-led) government had pushed the country towards default.

Calling Imran ‘the father of default’, Miftah said Khan is responsible for pushing Pakistan towards default; he is the one who broke his promise with the IMF; Khan is the one who wanted to derail the IMF programme when we tried to revive it under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership.

The News PK
 
Without revising tariff: Govt hammering out plan to cut circular debt
The government directed the relevant authorities to come up with viable plans to reduce the monster of circular debt that had now peaked at Rs4 trillion

Without allowing an upward revision in electricity and gas tariffs, the government on Saturday directed the relevant authorities to come up with viable plans to reduce the monster of circular debt that had now peaked at Rs4 trillion.

However, without pricing adjustments, the IMF has rejected the initial plan for slashing the circular debt shared by Pak authorities with them in recent days because the Fund wants cost recovery of electricity and gas generation sectors. Top official sources told The News on Saturday that Minister for Finance Ishaq Dar chaired a high-level meeting to deliberate upon the cash bleeding energy sector to prepare a plan for slashing down the circular debt, which will be presented to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for approval. Afterwards, this revised-updated plan will be shared with the IMF. But the meeting with PM was postponed and now it was expected to be held probably on Sunday (today) or Monday (tomorrow).

The IMF high-ups assured the Pakistani authorities that they would continue holding virtual meetings during Christmas holidays and Pakistani authorities were assigned to come up with a viable plan to erase the circular debt. The IMF had expressed its annoyance that the circular debt of the power sector had not shown improvements sought on the occasion of completion of the 7th and 8th reviews under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. The IMF’s displeasure further grew when the circular debt of the gas sector jacked up to Rs1,600 billion.

Under the plan, the government was considering coming up with alternate plans such as parking the amount of circular debt into separate Special Purpose Vehicle, directing gas utilities to declare their dividends and utilise them for financing, investing Terms Finance Certificates (TFCs) into PIBs and others. After getting approval from PM Shehbaz Sharif, the government would share the revised plan with the IMF with the hope that the Fund staff would grant its assent to it. But another issue remains outstanding as the government of Pakistan deferred bill payments during the peak summer season and now this deferment amount of around Rs100 billion would be required. The IMF wants the govt to recover the amount instead of declaring it a subsidy.

Pakistan and the IMF would also have to reconcile subsidy amounts for reducing electricity and gas prices for export-oriented sectors. The Kissan package and its financing requirements will also be determined. The IMF asked to justify subsidy amount on tubewells and share a plan how to find fiscal space for that. Now it remains to be seen how the government will convince the IMF of its cost recovery plan without raising the prices in energy sector.

Official sources said the government will have to take a decision on the taxation side as well as two options were under consideration for imposing the Flood Levy. The government has proposed to impose a 1 or 2 per cent levy on non-essential imported items.

According to an official statement issued by the Ministry of Finance, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar chaired a meeting on reforms in the energy sector at the Finance Division on Saturday. Minister of State for Finance and Revenue Dr. Ayesha Ghous Pasha, Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Masood Malik, SAPM on Finance Tariq Bajwa, Secretary Finance, Secretary Power and senior officers attended the meeting. The meeting discussed introducing various reforms in the energy sector and issues of stock and flow of circular debt in the sector.

Highlighting the importance of reforms in the energy sector, Dar said that reforms are crucial in the energy sector for economic growth of the country. He further added that the government puts priority to addressing the issues of energy sector, including circular debt, to bring financial sustainability of the sector and economic growth to the country. He further directed the relevant authorities to make viable solutions for the settlement of all issues in energy sector.

The News PK
 
why no one is talking about this ?


Pakistan has defaulted. and no one is bother to discuss it on the media . from last 6 months what the hell they were doing ? they both are fighting with each other and no one is worried about the country. no PDM member , no PDM supporter , no Media Mafia , no Establishment . not even on PP . thats just Pathetic .
 

Mods kindly plz dont merge this thread. we want to know the reason from PDM supporters.
 
You need to give news links to Pak being defaulted which doesn’t seem to be the case, do you want to check the post again?
 
Shares plunge 712 points on political and economic turmoil

Shares at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday on the back of continued political and economic turmoil.

The benchmark KSE-100 index lost 712.32 points, or 1.74 per cent, to reach 40,258.50 points at 11:46am.

Dalal Securities CEO Siddique Dalal said the index fell due to a number of reasons, including fear of the dissolution of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies and rising political confrontations which had damaged investor confidence.

Other factors affecting the market were mutual funds’ redemptions at year-end, worsening economic situation, pressure on the rupee, shortage of dollars and the delay in the completion of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) ninth review, he added.

“All these factors are bringing the market down and there is no hope of improvement in the future,” Dalal said.

“A lot of issues have accumulated, including dollar shortage, but the main reason remains political uncertainty and the impending dissolution of [two provincial] assemblies. There is pressure on foreign reserves as well,” First National Equities Limited Director Amir Shehzad commented.

Former PSX director Zafar Moti also agreed that the “obvious” reason for the stock market’s downward trend was political uncertainty. He also cited default rumours as a reason for the slump.

Moti lamented that unlike times of crisis in the past, when senior capital market members were brought together by the PSX management to sort issues and clarify rumours, nothing had happened recently.

PTI Chairman Imran Khan announced on Saturday that his party’s governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would dissolve their assemblies on Dec 23 to pave the way for fresh elections.

The Constitution did not allow elections to be delayed beyond 90 days of an assembly’s dissolution, he had said in a video address with Punjab Chief Minister Parvez Elahi and KP Chief Minister Mahmood Khan by his side.

However, in an attempt to thwart the dissolution, a delegation of PPP and PML-N lawmakers submitted a no-confidence motion against CM Elahi in the Punjab Assembly on Monday night.

Separately, a no-trust motion was also submitted against PA Speaker Sibtain Khan under Article 53 of the Constitution.

Meanwhile, the country’s economic situation is deteriorating by the day. The State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are in a critical condition, declining by $11 billion during a year. In Dec 2021, the central bank’s reserves were $17.686bn which now stand at $6.7bn as of Dec 9, barely enough to cover a month’s imports.

The gravity of the situation has been exacerbated as the ninth review of a $7bn IMF programme is currently pending with remote talks being held between Fund officials and the government for the release of $1.18bn.

Pakistan has to pay at least $13bn to external stakeholders in the remaining part of the financial year. But it is unclear when it will receive more inflows from bilateral and multilateral institutions, giving rise to default fears.

The country was already in the grips of an economic crisis, facing decades-high inflation and dangerously low levels of forex reserves, when it was devastated by floods that killed at least 1,700 people and caused severe damage, estimated at around $30bn by authorities, to agricultural land and infrastructure.

DAWN
 
Miftah foresees default if Pakistan shuns IMF
Says the country was safe as long as it stayed in the programme

Former finance minister Miftah Ismail said on Monday that he fears default if Pakistan did not approach International Monetary Fund (IMF) at this crucial time.

He expressed these views at a two-day global conference arranged by Economics and Management Sciences Department of NED University.

He said, “We were safe for the first three years since we were in IMF programme.” After that, he added: “Imports increased rapidly in the first two years but exports could not be boosted because we had artificially stabilized the rupee.”

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2393006/miftah-foresees-default-if-pakistan-shuns-imf
 
Didn’t know we’re on brink of default when took oath: PM Shehbaz Sharif
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he did not know at the time of taking oath that Pakistan was on the verge of default

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Monday he did not know at the time of taking oath that Pakistan was on the verge of default.

“It was due to the concerted efforts of the coalition government and all other relevant institutions and prayers of the nation that the country was saved from default. The country still faces economic challenges but we will change its fate, as it is destined for fast-paced progress and prosperity,” he said while addressing a ceremony here after laying the foundation stones of different uplift communication, road, hydel, and power infrastructure projects.

...
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1024238-didn-t-know-we-re-on-brink-of-default-when-took-oath-pm
 
No chance of default, finance minister assures investors at PSX

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar assured investors on Monday that there was no chance Pakistan would default, insisting that it has a “beautiful future and a resilient economy”.

He made the comments while addressing a ceremony to mark the first listing of the developmental Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

“We hear every day that Pakistan will default. How will it default? There is no chance.

“Yes, we are in a tight [fiscal] position and we do not have $24 billion in reserves which [the PML-N government] left in 2016 but that is not my fault. The fault is in the system and we must ensure that everyone works together for Pakistan’s progress,” he said.

“Pakistan can progress and it will. Pakistan has a beautiful future irrespective of whether I am here or not,” he added.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1728684/no-chance-of-default-finance-minister-assures-investors-at-psx
 
Pakistan to repay around $8.3bn in next three months
Out of $8.3b outstanding debt servicing, Pakistan will have to get rollover of $2b from UAE

Amid the dwindling foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan will have to repay approximately $8.3 billion in shape of external debt servicing over the next three months (Jan-March) of the current fiscal year.

Out of $8.3 billion outstanding debt servicing, Pakistan will have to get rollover of $2 billion from the UAE during the next three months of the current fiscal year.

There is another outstanding commercial loan repayment of $700 million to Chinese banks which Pak authorities are expecting to be refinanced. The principal amount of debt servicing stands at $5.035 billion in the next three months, while the interest repayment is hovering around $426.88 million, so in totality, the outstanding amount has gone up to $5.462 billion.

...
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1024907-pakistan-to-repay-around-8-3bn-in-next-three-months
 
A default would be the best thing to happen, the country's economy is in a debt addicted zombie state. Pile on more debt to meet older debt and accruing debt servicing costs.
 
shortbread said:
A default would be the best thing to happen, the country's economy is in a debt addicted zombie state. Pile on more debt to meet older debt and accruing debt servicing costs.
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Sounds good on paper until the practical implications are considered. RP at 350 maybe even higher, its at 258 now, just imagine the inflationary pressures. The economy has been going backwards quicker than an Italian war ship in a war, so the impact of this will be felt for generations. Thanks Bajwa
 
Bewal Express said:
Sounds good on paper until the practical implications are considered. RP at 350 maybe even higher, its at 258 now, just imagine the inflationary pressures. The economy has been going backwards quicker than an Italian war ship in a war, so the impact of this will be felt for generations. Thanks Bajwa
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You cant blame one person for it, it’s generations & generations of politicians who have piled on the debt without thinking how to repay them. Not to mention the white elephant CPEC which was the dumbest move ever made by a country already living on a mountain of debt. Currently no country nor agency is in a position to bail out Pakistan - not even its all-weather bff. So the best bet would be to declare bankruptcy & start all over, but it will come at terrible economic, political & security cost.
 
dildilpak said:
You cant blame one person for it, it’s generations & generations of politicians who have piled on the debt without thinking how to repay them. Not to mention the white elephant CPEC which was the dumbest move ever made by a country already living on a mountain of debt. Currently no country nor agency is in a position to bail out Pakistan - not even its all-weather bff. So the best bet would be to declare bankruptcy & start all over, but it will come at terrible economic, political & security cost.
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I feel the same way about CPEC. It is interesting to see so many prior posts here from a 1-2 years ago with people claiming CPEC to be the end all be all.

I see bankruptcy as using the EMP against the machines in the Matrix movie. May give immediate relief but has serious long term implications.
 
Crisis alert: SBP forex reserves fall to $5.8bn
Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank fell below $6 billion, threatening to further exacerbate the country’s economic woes

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank fell below $6 billion, threatening to further exacerbate the country’s economic woes unless policymakers urgently secure financing from the International Monetary Fund and friendly countries.

The foreign reserves decreased by $294 million to $5.8 billion as of December 23, the State Bank of Pakistan said in a statement on Thursday. The reserves hit the lowest level since April 2014.

High external debt repayments and lack of foreign currency inflows have further eroded the country’s reserves, which are now equal to just five weeks of imports.

Pakistan’s total reserves declined $293 million to $11.7 billion. The reserves of commercial banks, however, inched up $1 million to $5.9 billion.

...
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1025303-crisis-alert-sbp-forex-reserves-fall-to-5-8bn
 
Bewal Express said:
Sounds good on paper until the practical implications are considered. RP at 350 maybe even higher, its at 258 now, just imagine the inflationary pressures. The economy has been going backwards quicker than an Italian war ship in a war, so the impact of this will be felt for generations. Thanks Bajwa
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The first thing it will do is immediately stop the borrowing binge and have the political/establishment elites cut down their spending. The population is suffering as it is and will make next to no difference for them.

Right now the borrowing simply keeps the institutions and it's pay cheques flowing while the public bears the debt burden.

What worries the leadership, isn't the repercussions a default will have on the country, but the fact that it'll dry up their gravy train!
 
dildilpak said:
You cant blame one person for it, it’s generations & generations of politicians who have piled on the debt without thinking how to repay them. Not to mention the white elephant CPEC which was the dumbest move ever made by a country already living on a mountain of debt. Currently no country nor agency is in a position to bail out Pakistan - not even its all-weather bff. So the best bet would be to declare bankruptcy & start all over, but it will come at terrible economic, political & security cost.
Click to expand...

When this cpec was signed, every day posters will taunt India on how Indians are jealous of the $56bn investment (Its another thing that at that point, India's defence budget itself was 50bn plus annually.). Many experts had warned about a debt trap but they were called Indian agents.

The only good thing that the Congress government did was to not join this Chinese BRI. Would have been a disaster for India.
 
Commercial banks refuse credit letters of edible oil importers
Edible oil importers and ghee manufacturers have been informed unofficially that their letters of credit cannot be opened at the interbank exchange rates

Commercial banks have started refusing opening of the letters of credit for edible oil imports despite exclusion of the sector from the condition of prior permission from the central bank.

Edible oil importers and ghee manufacturers have been informed unofficially that their letters of credit cannot be opened at the interbank exchange rates. However, the commercial banks were very much willing to do business with these importers if they were willing to open credit letters at Rs250 and above exchange rate against a dollar.

Pakistan Vanaspati Manufacturers Association Chairman Sheikh Abdul Razzaq in a letter to the SBP governor said that “the ‘Commercial Banks’ are conveying to the importers-cum-manufacturers of edible oil that with immediate effect the edible oil has been excluded from the list of ‘Essential Items’ and hence turning down the requests for opening of L/Cs/retirement of documents”.

He further mentioned that un-hindered opening of letters of credit/retirement of documents was in-evitable. It should be given priority as accorded by SBP earlier vide EPD circular letter no. 20 of 2022 dated December 27, 2022 to avoid any crisis in the country, which could lead to increase in prices of cooking oil / ghee and shortage due to non-availability of the raw material (edible oil).

...
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/10...refuse-credit-letters-of-edible-oil-importers
 
Country is in crisis: PBC tells PM
Recommended adoption of austerity measures, urgent restructuring of debt

The Pakistan Business Council (PBC), on Friday, urged the government to admit before the nation that the country is in a serious economic crisis, instead of denying the default risk to effectively plan, execute and get out of the tough situation.

In addition, the country’s preeminent business advocacy group, comprising the top 100 foreign businesses across the country, recommended a $19 billion energy conservation plan and the adoption of austerity measures. PBC has strongly advised the resumption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme and suggested the government urgently negotiate the restructuring of its foreign debt to buy time and undertake overdue economic reforms.
...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2394661/country-is-in-crisis-pbc-tells-pm
 
Much worse than Sri Lanka. One must remember that Sri Lanka had one of highest GDP per Capita and best HDI indices in Indian subcontinent. It has a population of 25 million. It has little to none war / violence since last 10 years. So while debt pile shock and self manufactured agrarian crisis caused the shock, the inherent structure is in place.

In Pakistan, we are talking about 250 million people with average age 23. GDP depends on imports. One of highest % investments in defence. Recently more than $50 bn losses in floods. In middle of all this, political instability and now an all out war with TTP on eastern front.

Recipe for disaster. Will need extraordinary vision and execution to get out of this mess.
 
wasim-fan said:
Much worse than Sri Lanka. One must remember that Sri Lanka had one of highest GDP per Capita and best HDI indices in Indian subcontinent. It has a population of 25 million. It has little to none war / violence since last 10 years. So while debt pile shock and self manufactured agrarian crisis caused the shock, the inherent structure is in place.

In Pakistan, we are talking about 250 million people with average age 23. GDP depends on imports. One of highest % investments in defence. Recently more than $50 bn losses in floods. In middle of all this, political instability and now an all out war with TTP on eastern front.

Recipe for disaster. Will need extraordinary vision and execution to get out of this mess.
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Good points. I'm not seeing much hope as things trend to be honest. I'm hoping/praying for that extraordinary vision and execution but I cannot see where that will come from now (Maryam? Shahbaz? Bilawal? or even IK with his one arm tied by the establishment?) I doubt any of them by themselves can execute enough to get out of this.

Let's wait for some obligatory feel good neighbor bashing comments in this thread too, to mask the real issues facing Pakistan underneath.
 
rickroll said:
Good points. I'm not seeing much hope as things trend to be honest. I'm hoping/praying for that extraordinary vision and execution but I cannot see where that will come from now (Maryam? Shahbaz? Bilawal? or even IK with his one arm tied by the establishment?) I doubt any of them by themselves can execute enough to get out of this.

Let's wait for some obligatory feel good neighbor bashing comments in this thread too, to mask the real issues facing Pakistan underneath.
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There is a reason that Romans invested the most on chariot games when empire was on decline. Its best to distract at someone else but it another thing if you begin to con yourself into believing the stuff you make up,

This week reserves were at $4.5Bn with a $8Bn payout due. Does anyone know how the default will impact the real estate market ( the only estate that's booming ). Some people could go homeless and penniless overnight. But have a look at the news and discussions.
 
Friendly countries won’t help if we ditch IMF: Sana
Interior minister blames PTI’s bad economic decisions for high inflation

Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah Khan on Saturday said that the PTI commitments with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had sandwiched Pakistan between the devil and the deep blue sea.

“If the present government tries to fulfil the IMF’s harsh conditions, it jacks up inflation and price spiral coupled with an economic setback,” the minister said while addressing the inaugural ceremony of a new NADRA Center near Painsara on Jhang Road.

“If we back out from these conditionalities, then our economic survival will become next to impossible and even our friendly countries cannot extend financial help to us,” he added

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2394742/friendly-countries-wont-help-if-we-ditch-imf-sana
 
NANBAIS ANNOUNCE TO CLOSE BUSINESS IN PUNJAB, KP

Citing the continuous increase in flour prices, the Muttahida Nanbai Association has decided to close business in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for an indefinite period, ARY News reported on Sunday.

Sources within the nanbai association said the announcement of date for the closure of the business in Punjab and KP will be announced after joint meeting of the association.

Sources further said further increase in the nan and roti prices due to increase in flour prices will be injustice with the masses.

It is pertinent to mention here that flour crisis has intensified across the country, with prices of the commodity have skyrocketed.

The flour prices skyrocketed in Lahore while the commodity was not available in most shops across the province. The 15kg flour bag is being sold for Rs 2,050 now, after the increase of Rs 150.

ARY
 
Why don't Pakistan default? At least that would be a point from which they can lay a foundation for some medium term recovery at the least.

This constant teetering on the brink doesn't benefit anyone except the loan sharks.
 
Varun said:
Why don't Pakistan default? At least that would be a point from which they can lay a foundation for some medium term recovery at the least.

This constant teetering on the brink doesn't benefit anyone except the loan sharks.
Click to expand...

1) Default implies they cannot borrow again medium to long term.

2) Rupee is going to crash atleast 300%. All the remittances will get pulled out and new remittances will stop.

3) Real estate which is nearly 30% of GDP will be tossed out. Overnight loan defaults.

4) Pakistan has 700,000 military personnel and other govt workers. Their payouts could be in danger.

5) The economy has not fundamental structure. It is based on rent seeking. It ll collapse.
 
wasim-fan said:
1) Default implies they cannot borrow again medium to long term.

2) Rupee is going to crash atleast 300%. All the remittances will get pulled out and new remittances will stop.

3) Real estate which is nearly 30% of GDP will be tossed out. Overnight loan defaults.

4) Pakistan has 700,000 military personnel and other govt workers. Their payouts could be in danger.

5) The economy has not fundamental structure. It is based on rent seeking. It ll collapse.
Click to expand...

What is rent seeking?
 
RajBan said:
What is rent seeking?
Click to expand...

So fundamental concept in economics is that if there no free entry or exit in business, lower is the efficiency. If you see the Pakistan economy and businesses, it is controlled by few elites. Inefficient businesses don't get thrown out of businesses and money doesñt move into more efficient possibilities. So you have many such dead businesses working because they have monopoly profits and closed market environment. So rent seeking is essentially where you get paid more than what you should due to controlled market environment.
 
wasim-fan said:
1) Default implies they cannot borrow again medium to long term.

2) Rupee is going to crash atleast 300%. All the remittances will get pulled out and new remittances will stop.

3) Real estate which is nearly 30% of GDP will be tossed out. Overnight loan defaults.

4) Pakistan has 700,000 military personnel and other govt workers. Their payouts could be in danger.

5) The economy has not fundamental structure. It is based on rent seeking. It ll collapse.
Click to expand...

SS claimed the problems are 30 years in the making. In 27 of those 30 years, PK has been ruled by people that are in power today. We have a nexus of the Generals and the family businesses and they won't ever let go. BTW have you got a poster of Junaid yet?
 
Bewal Express said:
SS claimed the problems are 30 years in the making. In 27 of those 30 years, PK has been ruled by people that are in power today. We have a nexus of the Generals and the family businesses and they won't ever let go. BTW have you got a poster of Junaid yet?
Click to expand...

Indeed and this is why I am starting to favor IK a little bit now. Its not really who he is but what he represents. He is a politician. IK has also contributed through his oil subsidies to this current situation. However he did good on exports.

At this point, the situation is no different from days of French revolution. The youngest demography in the world with no hope is recipe for disaster. IK is the only one that could take on the establishment and break the status quo. Not the best candidate but the only who can maybe break status quo.

But this is also more of hope and prayer. I dont think there is any magic bullet here. Gods will have to intervene. Consciousness will have to rise.
 
wasim-fan said:
Indeed and this is why I am starting to favor IK a little bit now. Its not really who he is but what he represents. He is a politician. IK has also contributed through his oil subsidies to this current situation. However he did good on exports.

At this point, the situation is no different from days of French revolution. The youngest demography in the world with no hope is recipe for disaster. IK is the only one that could take on the establishment and break the status quo. Not the best candidate but the only who can maybe break status quo.

But this is also more of hope and prayer. I dont think there is any magic bullet here. Gods will have to intervene. Consciousness will have to rise.
Click to expand...

Our problems are( and as you quite rightly pointed out) due to predatory elite where effectively someone of their ilk is always in power and the public are fooled with fake disputes. IK cant do anything to the establishment without free and fair elections and those are never going to happen when you have all the vested interests on board to make sure they dont. It pains me to say it but i see no way out.
 
BISP to release Rs55b for Kifalat beneficiaries
Minister warns people against fake messages

Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) is going to release the first quarterly installment of Rs7,000 to the Kafaalat programme beneficiaries for the year 2023 from Monday.

About 7.7 million families would receive over Rs55 billion in the first tranche. The beneficiaries women and transgender persons hailing from Islamabad, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan would receive this money from the payment centres or biometric ATMs.

Minister for Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety and BISP Chairperson Shazia Marri, in her message to beneficiaries, said that transparency would be ensured at all costs during the disbursements of funds.

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2394875/bisp-to-release-rs55b-for-kifalat-beneficiaries
 
Bewal Express said:
Our problems are( and as you quite rightly pointed out) due to predatory elite where effectively someone of their ilk is always in power and the public are fooled with fake disputes. IK cant do anything to the establishment without free and fair elections and those are never going to happen when you have all the vested interests on board to make sure they dont. It pains me to say it but i see no way out.
Click to expand...

Good point.

Even if IK wins (and we hope he does), then what? He is still a one man army with one of his hands tied behind his back thanks to the military establishment. It is easy to pin mighty hopes on a "messiah solution" but it is not realistic. Only solution is through structural changes and that does not seem to be coming around.
 
rickroll said:
Good point.

Even if IK wins (and we hope he does), then what? He is still a one man army with one of his hands tied behind his back thanks to the military establishment. It is easy to pin mighty hopes on a "messiah solution" but it is not realistic. Only solution is through structural changes and that does not seem to be coming around.
Click to expand...

I think if he comes in, the Generals will be back in the barracks, hence the reason they need Billo and the mafia because they can blackmail them with cases. Bajwa threatened IK with videos and audios, Kaptaan did not back down and told them to release them. He can't be controlled and they know it.
 
Saudi Arabia mulls increasing deposit in SBP to $5bn

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has directed the Saudi Development Fund (SDF) to study increasing the deposit amount in the State of Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to $5 billion, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported on Tuesday.

“His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister, has directed to study augmenting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s investments in the sisterly Islamic Republic of Pakistan which have previously been announced on August 25, 2022, to reach $10 billion,” it said.

“The crown prince also directed the Saudi Development Fund to study increasing the amount of the deposit provided by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in favour of the Central Bank of Pakistan which have previously been extended on December 2, 2022 to hit a $5 billion ceiling,” the report said.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1730914/saudi-arabia-mulls-increasing-deposit-in-sbp-to-5bn
 
Pakistan gets $4bn lifeline as economic woes mount

Pakistan on Thurs*day secured a lifeline of about $4 billion from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to sail through the immediate challenge of a sovereign default amid rapidly shrinking foreign exchange reserves, massive flood damages and an overall economic slowdown.

Two separate official announcements said the UAE pledged to roll over $2bn debt payable over the next two months and topped this with an additional $1bn support during an ongoing visit of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to the emirates.

Separately, the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) signed an agreement in Islamabad to fund $1bn worth of oil imports on deferred payment.

The central bank’s reserves dropped to a critical level of $4.34bn on Thursday, the lowest since February 2014 and barely enough to finance less than one month of controlled imports.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1731409/pakistan-gets-4bn-lifeline-as-economic-woes-mount
 
Stocks crash, hit 30-month low
Plunge by 1,379 points to close at 38,342, making it single largest drop witnessed in 7 months

Pakistan’s stock market crashed by 3.47% or 1,379 points, hitting a 30-month low to close at 38,342 points on Tuesday. The rising political temperature coupled with an economic meltdown, threw investors into a frenzy with most rushing to sell shares in a panic to quit the market.

This was the single largest drop in a day witnessed in the past seven-month. The bloodbath wiped out almost Rs200 billion from the market in the day, as market capitalisation (value of all listed companies) dropped to Rs6.134 trillion compared to Rs6.333 trillion a day ago.

The market has maintained a steep fall for the third consecutive working day, plunging by a cumulative 6%, or 2,462 points, to date from Thursday’s close of 40,804 points.

Speaking to the Express Tribune, KASB Securities Head of Research Yousuf Rahman said, “The market has dropped in the wake of political developments ahead of the general elections.”

“The market is expecting the rupee to depreciate to around Rs260 against the US dollar in interbank ahead of the resumption of the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme,” he said. The exchange rate is hovering at around Rs228/$ at present.

“Secondly, the market is expecting the central bank to increase its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 17%, as its monetary policy committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet next week on January 23,” he added.

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2396519/stocks-crash-hit-30-month-low
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) has rolled over their deposit of <br>$2billion with State Bank of Pakistan, as discussed by <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PM?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PM</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CMShehbaz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CMShehbaz</a> with His Highness the President of UAE during last week’s official visit to &#55356;&#56806;&#55356;&#56810;!<br>Long live Pak-UAE friendship!</p>— Ishaq Dar (@MIshaqDar50) <a href="https://twitter.com/MIshaqDar50/status/1615754705900298241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
daytrader said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) has rolled over their deposit of <br>$2billion with State Bank of Pakistan, as discussed by <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PM?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PM</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CMShehbaz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CMShehbaz</a> with His Highness the President of UAE during last week’s official visit to &#55356;&#56806;&#55356;&#56810;!<br>Long live Pak-UAE friendship!</p>— Ishaq Dar (@MIshaqDar50) <a href="https://twitter.com/MIshaqDar50/status/1615754705900298241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Dar reminds one of student years and broke teens, who celebrate when they get accepted for a new credit card! Woop...woop drinks on mee!
 
Only polls can avert ‘Sri Lanka-like crisis’
Says dissolution of Punjab Assembly was a ‘masterstroke’ against the PDM

As Pakistan faces myriad challenges like skyrocketing inflation, unemployment, depleting foreign exchange reserves and shortage of essential commodities, PTI Chairman and former premier Imran Khan on Thursday warned that the country could slide into Sri Lanka-like situation if “free and fair” elections were not held by the incumbent regime.

Addressing senior journalists in Lahore, the PTI chief noted that the country was passing through a critical juncture.

“Pakistan is not in a position to bear any delay in elections. Any compromise on the transparency of elections or political engineering will be tantamount to enmity with the nation,” he said.

“Only elections can prevent Pakistan’s slide into Sri Lanka-like situation,” he added.

Imran held incumbent Finance Minister Ishaq Dar for the continuing economic meltdown and observed that “voices of split could be heard with the (ruling) PML-N”.

The PTI chief observed that the PDM-led coalition government had failed on all the fronts, alleging that it was using the people’s resources for its personal gain.

“Only the PTI government can save the country from crises,” he said.

Imran clarified that the PTI was not mulling over any option to lodge protests on streets if the date for the general elections was not announced.

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2396929/only-polls-can-avert-sri-lanka-like-crisis
 
Rs3.2 trillion spent on just debt servicing, defence
Uncontrolled spending may result in government missing deficit target set by IMF

Amid reluctance to opt for debt restructuring, interest expenses have shot-up significantly to Rs2.57 trillion during the first half of this fiscal year. This equals to 65% of the annual debt servicing budget and is forcing the government to cut out its other expenses – except those on defence.

Sources in the Ministry of Finance told The Express Tribune that during the July-December period of the current fiscal year, there was an alarming increase of 77% in the cost of interest on the federal government debt stock.

The fresh provisional details suggest that, due to the precarious situation, there has been a cumulative reduction of 15% in all other non-development expenditures, excluding defence. The development expenses were slashed by 50% to create room for other expenses, according to government sources.

The finance ministry paid about Rs2.57 trillion in interest costs, up by Rs1.1 trillion or 77%, according to the sources. For the current fiscal year, the government had budgeted Rs3.95 trillion for interest expenses but 65% of it has been consumed in just six months.

Amid the high cost of debt servicing, the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank is also scheduled to meet on Monday to review the possibility of further increasing its interest rate to contain inflation and attract foreign inflows.

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2397233/rs32-trillion-spent-on-just-debt-servicing-defence
 
Dollar-starved Pakistan imports 2,200 luxury vehicles

The government has allowed the import of 2,200 luxury vehicles in the first six months of the current fiscal year while the country was crippled with strict foreign exchange control even for imports of essential consumer items and industrial goods.

As a result of the strict foreign exchange control, the piling of containers containing different consumer and industrial products reaches almost 8,500 in the first half of this year at ports across the country, an official source told Dawn on Monday. Contrary to this, the traders put the stuck-up containers figure at 5,500.

As per customs data, over 95 per cent of 8,500 containers are held up at ports due to the non-opening of letters of credit (LCs).

These containers carry consumer goods, industrial goods, pharmaceuticals and perishable products, while imports of used luxury cars are swiftly clearing at ports.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1733305/dollar-starved-pakistan-imports-2200-luxury-vehicles
 
daytrader said:
Dollar-starved Pakistan imports 2,200 luxury vehicles

The government has allowed the import of 2,200 luxury vehicles in the first six months of the current fiscal year while the country was crippled with strict foreign exchange control even for imports of essential consumer items and industrial goods.

As a result of the strict foreign exchange control, the piling of containers containing different consumer and industrial products reaches almost 8,500 in the first half of this year at ports across the country, an official source told Dawn on Monday. Contrary to this, the traders put the stuck-up containers figure at 5,500.

As per customs data, over 95 per cent of 8,500 containers are held up at ports due to the non-opening of letters of credit (LCs).

These containers carry consumer goods, industrial goods, pharmaceuticals and perishable products, while imports of used luxury cars are swiftly clearing at ports.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1733305/dollar-starved-pakistan-imports-2200-luxury-vehicles
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Unbelievable. French Revolution might be only way.
 
$500m due with only $4.1b in reserve
The country is scheduled to make the repayment in the next 72 hours

Amid lack of clarity over dates for the visit of the International Monetary Fund, Pakistan is set to make a $500 million debt repayment to a Chinese commercial bank–the second in the past seven days –which may push reserves below $4 billion without any new injection.

The country is scheduled to make the repayment in the next 72 hours – holding onto hopes that, after the Lunar Year holidays, those Chinese financial institutions to which Pakistan made repayments last year will start disbursing loans.

Sources in the Ministry of Finance told The Express Tribune that the government will return the $500 million loan to the Chinese commercial bank, while another loan – of $300 million – given by the same bank is maturing in the fourth week of February.

Meanwhile, the Economic Affairs Ministry was showing that the entire payment – of $800 million – to the said bank is due next month, indicating some inconsistencies in data recording between the two ministries.

Over this past weekend, Pakistan made a payment of roughly $328 million guaranteed Chinese debt that the country had taken to set up power plants. Pakistan had requested China to roll-over this guaranteed debt, but China did not immediately agree.

After paying back the Chinese guaranteed debt, the foreign exchange reserves slipped to around $4.1 billion, and may fall close to $3.5 billion by the end of this week, if no immediate injection is received, said the sources.

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2397424/500m-due-with-only-41b-in-reserve
 
daytrader said:
$500m due with only $4.1b in reserve
The country is scheduled to make the repayment in the next 72 hours

Amid lack of clarity over dates for the visit of the International Monetary Fund, Pakistan is set to make a $500 million debt repayment to a Chinese commercial bank–the second in the past seven days –which may push reserves below $4 billion without any new injection.

The country is scheduled to make the repayment in the next 72 hours – holding onto hopes that, after the Lunar Year holidays, those Chinese financial institutions to which Pakistan made repayments last year will start disbursing loans.

Sources in the Ministry of Finance told The Express Tribune that the government will return the $500 million loan to the Chinese commercial bank, while another loan – of $300 million – given by the same bank is maturing in the fourth week of February.

Meanwhile, the Economic Affairs Ministry was showing that the entire payment – of $800 million – to the said bank is due next month, indicating some inconsistencies in data recording between the two ministries.

Over this past weekend, Pakistan made a payment of roughly $328 million guaranteed Chinese debt that the country had taken to set up power plants. Pakistan had requested China to roll-over this guaranteed debt, but China did not immediately agree.

After paying back the Chinese guaranteed debt, the foreign exchange reserves slipped to around $4.1 billion, and may fall close to $3.5 billion by the end of this week, if no immediate injection is received, said the sources.

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2397424/500m-due-with-only-41b-in-reserve
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I always said lets wait out to see how it plays and maybe some countries can spring a surprise but now 6-7 years all the countries Chinese loaned to became indebted to them in some way or the other.

The loan conditions of every creditor should be checked, IMF China etc and people need to know how their leaders set terms.
 
JaDed said:
I always said lets wait out to see how it plays and maybe some countries can spring a surprise but now 6-7 years all the countries Chinese loaned to became indebted to them in some way or the other.

The loan conditions of every creditor should be checked, IMF China etc and people need to know how their leaders set terms.
Click to expand...

This demise is of our own making (or rather the army's creation). We seem to be doing fairly ok till the early part of 2022. Just look at the economic metrics before IK was removed. GDP growth at 6%, highest ever foreign reserves, exports, remittances, tax collection etc etc. Yes there were challenges and current account pressures and high inflation (which pales in comparison to what it is now).... but situation was no where near as bleak as it is at the moment. Only a miracle can save the country now.
 
Syed1 said:
This demise is of our own making (or rather the army's creation). We seem to be doing fairly ok till the early part of 2022. Just look at the economic metrics before IK was removed. GDP growth at 6%, highest ever foreign reserves, exports, remittances, tax collection etc etc. Yes there were challenges and current account pressures and high inflation (which pales in comparison to what it is now).... but situation was no where near as bleak as it is at the moment. Only a miracle can save the country now.
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If i’m not wrong the loan repayments were on hold, the whole issue started when repayments were needed etc.

But yes definitely IK was way better coz stability and hope.
Pakistan still has many educated people and somewhat stable IT sector and English speaking population for outsourcing and back office work, the issue is the loans and their atrocious terms taken by government those are really stringent.

Also insane is the other news someone shared of luxury cars , which means Pakistan has many rich people and businesses still in background, they all need to be utilized.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1733305

Having said all that Pakistani government offices seem like the most incompetent and corrupt, esp the Election commission, nothing can be done if such a basic thing has no transparency and is just a pawn of Establishment.
 
JaDed said:
If i’m not wrong the loan repayments were on hold, the whole issue started when repayments were needed etc.

But yes definitely IK was way better coz stability and hope.
Pakistan still has many educated people and somewhat stable IT sector and English speaking population for outsourcing and back office work, the issue is the loans and their atrocious terms taken by government those are really stringent.

Also insane is the other news someone shared of luxury cars , which means Pakistan has many rich people and businesses still in background, they all need to be utilized.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1733305

Having said all that Pakistani government offices seem like the most incompetent and corrupt, esp the Election commission, nothing can be done if such a basic thing has no transparency and is just a pawn of Establishment.
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The thing is Pakistan is not the only victim. Almost 15 other countries are under horrible debt trap of China where they have to surrender sovereign assets such as ports , airports, mines or strategic land to China. Surprising though is that countries continue to fall for it inspite of live examples.

What is equally astonishing is that educated Pakistanis still think that China is giving money based on brotherhood whereas the reality from early days of BRI has been China wanted to squeeze as much interest, employ their own engineers, and take back all the revenues back to China while also trapping the nation state in high debt to surrender their sovereignty. It's a plan they have executed masterfully over multiple regions but still command fan following in those regions.
 
RajBan said:
The thing is Pakistan is not the only victim. Almost 15 other countries are under horrible debt trap of China where they have to surrender sovereign assets such as ports , airports, mines or strategic land to China. Surprising though is that countries continue to fall for it inspite of live examples.

What is equally astonishing is that educated Pakistanis still think that China is giving money based on brotherhood whereas the reality from early days of BRI has been China wanted to squeeze as much interest, employ their own engineers, and take back all the revenues back to China while also trapping the nation state in high debt to surrender their sovereignty. It's a plan they have executed masterfully over multiple regions but still command fan following in those regions.
Click to expand...

On top of that, though this CPEC project was aimed at providing the jobs, it has done very little.
Project execution is controlled by Chinese and is one sided. Most of the jobs within the CPEC are held by the Chinese.
 
MPs to get Rs90b amid economic morass
National Austerity Committee proposes against such schemes

Amid the National Austerity Committee’s recommendation to review the practice of dolling out billions of rupees to parliamentarians, the government decided to further increase the discretionary spending budget to a whopping Rs90 billion.

As the country is also at the risk of default, the National Austerity Committee recommended slashing the federal cabinet to just 30 members from the current almost 77, including special assistants to the prime minister.

The committee sought 10% decrease in the salary and allowance of legislators as well as 15% cut in the current expenditure of ministries.

The committee finalised some useful recommendations and it was now up to the government to either implement them or put in the cupboard, as had been done in the past.

Sources in the Ministry of Planning said that the government decided to give another Rs3 billion to the parliamentarians by slashing the budget of an educational institute and the Innovation Support Project – speaking volumes about the priorities of the ruling alliance.

The government decided to slash the Rs1.4 billion budget of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Rs800 million allocation for the construction of the Planning House and another Rs800 million from the budget of the Innovative Support Project.

The development came amid the National Austerity Committee’s under-consideration proposal to stop such funding to the parliamentarians’ schemes.

The committee, which met for the consecutive second day on Tuesday under the chairmanship of Nasir Khosa, prepared a draft of its recommendations that will soon be sent to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1733489/pm-ready-to-sacrifice-political-capital-at-imf-altar
 
Pakistan's currency today has fallen to a record low of ₹ 255 against the US dollar, according to local media reports. The tumble comes after the cash-strapped government relaxed its grip on the exchange rate to win much-needed loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Pakistan's money exchange companies removed the limit on the dollar-rupee rate from Wednesday, and said they will let the local currency drop slowly in the open market.

The Pakistani rupee fell by ₹ 24 and was trading at ₹ 255 against the US dollar at 1 pm, the Express Tribune reported.

The IMF had asked the Pak government to end its control and let market forces determine the currency rate, a condition that was readily accepted. Pakistan has been looking to win the global body's approval to get $6.5 billion in funding which is currently stalled.

While Pakistan won an IMF bailout last year, the release of funds has been stalled this year.

The low forex reserve in Pakistan has led to massive food inflation. In some parts of the country, a packet of flour is being sold for as high as ₹ 3,000. Videos of people fighting for food and chasing food trucks are doing the rounds on social media.

The country has also plunged into darkness owing to frequent blackouts.

"We haven't been able to do anything. Everybody is sitting idle. We can't operate any machines," says Zafar Ali, who runs a workshop.

Pakistan's central bank this week also raised interest rates to a 24-year high to fight surging prices.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/cas...ainst-dollar-3726585#pfrom=home-ndtv_bigstory
 
NDTV is also now owned by Adani [MENTION=93712]MenInG[/MENTION] .. the founders have left..

Hopefully their articles are well vetted
 
Our reserves are now $3.7 billion and we have zero leverage with the IMF, World Bank and friendly Arab Stats. Even Ishaq Dar who talked and bragged so much, went begging to the PM asking to accept all IMF conditions as he had nothing up his sleeve anymore.

Have we now reached a stage where we will be compromising on our strategic assets to the West? How long will the nation sit silently watching this tamasha?
 
Savak said:
Our reserves are now $3.7 billion and we have zero leverage with the IMF, World Bank and friendly Arab Stats. Even Ishaq Dar who talked and bragged so much, went begging to the PM asking to accept all IMF conditions as he had nothing up his sleeve anymore.

Have we now reached a stage where we will be compromising on our strategic assets to the West? How long will the nation sit silently watching this tamasha?
Click to expand...
I don't think there is such a chance. China manages those assets anyways so West won't intervene to avoid a direct conflict.
 
There are basically two problems which the Pakistanis have to address but they first need to educate themself's to see through the interests of United States & China.

United States only helps pak in 70's becuase they wanted to draw russia back from Afganistan, they didn't wanted to involve themself directly in the war so they used pak and created mujhid's when Russia withdraw from Afg then Mujahid went unemployed then Pak Army employed them in Kashmir in 90's to create same proxy war with india. Even now US want to use Paksitan as a base against china and India to keep them in Check these all are stretegic things which Pakistan govt as of now failed to read. Both wan't Pakistan for their own purose the earlier You guys realise this the better for you to move out of it. But it semems like your govt and Army are ok with this, hence you will keep finding yourself in this mess.
 
Stumper said:
There are basically two problems which the Pakistanis have to address but they first need to educate themself's to see through the interests of United States & China.

United States only helps pak in 70's becuase they wanted to draw russia back from Afganistan, they didn't wanted to involve themself directly in the war so they used pak and created mujhid's when Russia withdraw from Afg then Mujahid went unemployed then Pak Army employed them in Kashmir in 90's to create same proxy war with india. Even now US want to use Paksitan as a base against china and India to keep them in Check these all are stretegic things which Pakistan govt as of now failed to read. Both wan't Pakistan for their own purose the earlier You guys realise this the better for you to move out of it. But it semems like your govt and Army are ok with this, hence you will keep finding yourself in this mess.
Click to expand...


Disagree with your post.

It is too late for Pakistan, they have dug their grave so deep, that it will take probably a 100 years for them to claw their way back, that is if they put in proper effort, which I don't think they are capable off.

In a 100 years most humans on this planet would have settled in places like Mars, Neptune or wherever else.

Its just over for Pakistan, they will just go the way they are, Just let it be...

Countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka can always be an example to other countries on what not to do, in that way Pakistan can contribute something meaningful to the world.
 
SBP reserves plunge to $3.7bn

Foreign exchange reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hit a new nine-year low of $3.678 billion during the week ended on Jan 20.

The SBP on Thursday said that its forex holdings decreased by $923m during the week due to external debt repayments.

The government has practically surrendered to the IMF conditions for the revival of the loan programme amid fast-dwindling SBP reserves are even not sufficient to cover imports for three weeks.

More than 9,000 containers are stuck at the ports waiting to be paid for clearance. Also, ships carrying essential commodities including petroleum products, LNG and soyabean are awaiting payments but the empty-handed government is looking for inflows.

The government has met the key pre-conditions of the fund including a market-based dollar-rupee exchange parity and high-interest rate and is likely to impose 17pc general sales tax on diesel and petrol within a week.

The economy is in bad shape but the external front is facing the worst situation.

The country’s total reserves were $9.5bn down by $990m while the commercial banks’ holdings fell by $68m to $5.8bn during the week.

DAWN
 
Centre blocks Punjab’s Rs400bn health insurance scheme

Amid challenging engagements with international lending agencies to unlock external flows for the balance of payments and flood recovery, the Centre has cast off Punjab’s Rs400 billion health insurance scheme in its present form and size, targeting the entire population of the province, including the rich and the poor.

The project, named “Implementation of Universal Health Coverage under Health Insurance Programme in Punjab”, was presented at a recent meeting of the Central Development Working Party (CDWP) but was not approved after the planning ministry, particularly Planning Secretary Zafar Ali Shah, put up a strong opposition based on feedback from lenders and donors on untargeted subsidies and wasteful expenditures.

Informed sources told Dawn that Mr Shah told the meeting, presided over by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, that during a couple of meetings at the Prime Minister’s Office and the economic affairs division (EAD) for coordination on flood-related pledges, the most critical emphasis from lenders and donors remained on spending funds on those who actually deserve and in need of external support but not on those who can afford but prefer public funds.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1735607/centre-blocks-punjabs-rs400bn-health-insurance-scheme
 
Pakistani drugmakers threaten to stop production as liquidity crunch bites

  • "Producing medicine has become completely unsustainable."
  • 10 pharmaceutical firms give notices to health ministry: DRAP.
  • "Cost of production up manifold must increase prices to continue production."

Citing an unprecedented increase in the cost of production due to the massive rupee devaluation in Pakistan, several local pharmaceutical companies Monday said it had become "completely unsustainable" for them to manufacture medicines and ensure their availability beyond the next seven days.

Today, around 10 leading pharmaceutical companies have given separate notices to the federal health ministry and the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP), claiming that they are going to stop production of medicines after a week if prices are not increased immediately.

"The cost of production of medicines has increased manifolds due to massive rupee devaluation and increase in prices of utilities”, former chairman of the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (PPMA) Qazi Mansoor Dilawar told The News.

Referring to decisions taken at a meeting of pharmaceutical companies on Sunday — attended by PPMA members from both South and North Zones — Dilawar said: "Due to an increase in the prices of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) as well as packaging material, it is no more feasible for pharmaceutical companies to manufacture medicines and sell them at the current rates."

...
https://www.geo.tv/latest/469449-pa...-to-stop-production-as-liquidity-crunch-bites
 
Chief Justice of Pakistan Umar Ata Bandial on Friday rejected the notion that the country was teetering on the verge of “bankruptcy” and called upon the government to make concerted efforts aimed at stopping the outflow of foreign currency through smuggling.

Express Tribune
 
Milk price reaches Rs210 a litre, chicken meat costs Rs700kg in Karachi

• Milk retailers blame wholesalers for the rise
• Poultry dealers attribute soaring rates to shortage of soya bean feed

KARACHI: In uncertain economic conditions, consumers continue to receive severe price shocks following an unchecked hike in the prices of daily use items, including loose milk, which has been increased to Rs210 from Rs190 per litre by some shopkeepers and live broiler chicken which has seen an increase of Rs30-40 per kg in the last two days, taking the cost to Rs480-500 per kilogram.

Earlier this month, the live bird was available at Rs390-440 per kg while it was being sold between Rs380-420kg in the last week of January, 2023.

The chicken meat is now being sold at Rs700-780 a kg which was Rs620-650 per kg a few days ago.

Boneless meat price hit a new peak of Rs1,000-1,100 per kg, showing a jump of Rs150-200 per kg in the same period.

Boneless poultry meat rate has crossed the price of boneless veal which is currently being sold at Rs900-1,000 per kg, while meat with bones is selling at Rs800-850 per kg.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1736845/m...a-litre-chicken-meat-costs-rs700kg-in-karachi
 
CAR SALES PLUNGE 43PC ON IMPORT CURBS

The car sales in Pakistan registered a sharp decline of 43 per cent during the first seven months of the current fiscal year.

As per the data shown by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), car sales plunged by 65% in January 2023 from a year earlier amid a shortage of raw materials, low purchasing power.

As compared to the past year, car sales and production in January plunged to 5,723 and 6,021 units from 13,758 and 13,780 in December 2022.

During the first seven months of FY23, car production and sales registered a steep decline of 38.6pc and 43pc to 77,101 and 74,933 units from 125,507 and 131,759 units in the same period last year.

The report shows that Pak Suzuki, which holds the biggest share in the market, saw its sales plummet 74% month-on-month in January 2023.

Indus Motor reported an increase of 26% month-on-month to 3,570 units followed by Honda Atlas Cars at 2,704 units in January 2023.

It is pertinent to mention here that Pakistan has moved to curb dollar outflow through restrictions on imports. The country’s foreign exchange reserves are at a critical level of $2.92 billion – lowest since February 2014.

ARY
 
Fitch sees ‘real possibility’ of default

• Downgrades Pakistan’s long-term IDR to ‘CCC minus’, doesn’t assign outlook
• Forecasts modest recovery

WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD: The Fitch Ratings agency on Tuesday downgraded Pakistan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-’, from ‘CCC+’ due to worsening liquidity, political volatility and decline of foreign-exchange reserves to critically low levels.

A CCC minus rating denotes a very high level of default risk.

One of the three major global rating agencies, Fitch said it did not typically assign outlooks to sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC+’ or below.

On Oct 21, 2022, Moody’s — another global rating agency — downgraded Pakistan’s IDR to CCC- from B-, reflecting a steady deterioration since the start of the current fiscal year.

In a note defining its action, Fitch explained that the downgrading reflects further sharp deterioration in external liquidity and funding conditions and the decline of foreign exchange reserves to critically low levels.

It said that shortfalls in revenue collection, energy subsidies and policies inconsistent with a market-determined exchange rate have held up the 9th review of Pakistan’s IMF programme, which was originally due in Nov 2022.

“While we assume a successful conclusion of the 9th review of Pakistan’s IMF programme, the downgrade also reflects large risks to continued programme performance and funding, inclu*ding in the run-up to this year’s elections,” the agency wrote.

“Default or debt restructuring is an increasingly real possibility, in our view,” it noted.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1737219
 
Defence Minister Khawaja Asif on Saturday claimed that Pakistan has already defaulted and everyone including the establishment, bureaucracy, and politicians are responsible for it.

The remarks come as the country faces a crippling economic crisis, with decades-high inflation and critically low foreign exchange reserves depleted by continued debt repayment obligations.

"You must have heard that Pakistan is going bankrupt or that a default or meltdown is taking place. It (default) has already taken place. We are living in a bankrupt country," he said while addressing a ceremony in Sialkot.
 
Pakistan has gone bankrupt but the politicians have assets worth in billions amazing
 
Pakistan Hospitals Running Out Of Insulin, Disprin, Other Medicines
Doctors are forced to not perform surgeries due to the shortage of drugs and medical equipment.

The ongoing economic crisis in Pakistan has badly hit the healthcare system where patients have been struggling for essential medicines. The lack of forex reserves in the country has affected Pakistan's capacity to import the required medicines or the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) used in domestic production.
As a result, local pharmaceutical manufacturers have been forced to slash their production as patients suffer in hospitals. Doctors are forced to not perform surgeries due to the shortage of drugs and medical equipment.

As per Pakistan media reports, the operation theatres are left with less than the two-week stock of anaesthetics needed for sensitive surgeries, including for heart, cancer and kidney. The situation might also result in job losses in hospitals in Pakistan, further increasing the miseries of people.

The drug makers have blamed the financial system for the crisis in the healthcare system by claiming that commercial banks are not issuing new Letters of Credit (LCs) for their imports.

Pakistan medicine manufacturing is highly import-dependent with almost 95 per cent of the drugs requiring raw materials from other nations, including India and China. For most of the drug manufacturers, the imported materials have been held up at the Karachi port due to a shortage of dollars in the banking system.

The drug manufacturing industry has said that the cost of making drugs is constantly increasing due to rising fuel costs and transportation charges and the sharp devaluation of the Pakistani rupee.

...
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/dru...nomic-crisis-3815566#pfrom=home-ndtv_bigstory
 
Pakistan may default: Moody’s
Cuts rating to Caa3, says disbursements may not be secured in time

Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded the government of Pakistan’s local and foreign currency credit rating to Caa3 from Caa1, suggesting that the risk of default on foreign debt repayment has peaked with little chance for recovery.

“In the current extremely fragile balance of payments situation, disbursements may not be secured in time to avoid a default,” the global rating agency said in a statement on Tuesday. The decision to downgrade the ratings is driven by Moody’s assessment that Pakistan’s increasingly fragile liquidity and external position significantly “raise default risks to a level consistent with a Caa3 rating.”

In particular, the country’s foreign exchange reserves have plunged to “extremely low levels, far lower than necessary to cover its imports needs and external debt obligations over the immediate and medium term.”

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2403773/pakistan-may-default-moodys
 
SBP’s forex reserves rise to $4.3b
Central bank attributes increase to $500m loan from China

The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose by 12.7% on a week-on-week basis to $4.3 billion, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

On March 3, 2023, the SBP’s foreign currency reserves stood at $4,301 million, up by $487 million compared to $3,814.1 million on February 24.

The central bank attributed the rise in foreign exchange reserves to the receipt of $500 million as government of Pakistan’s commercial loan from China.

Overall, the liquid foreign currency reserves held by the country, including the net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $9,754 million. The net reserves held by banks amounted to $5,453 million.

Ismail Iqbal Securities Head of Research Fahad Rauf recently said “further improvement in foreign currency reserves depended on the revival of International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loan programme and the inflow of fresh financing from other multilateral and bilateral creditors.

Express Tribune
 
Forex reserves rise to $4.31b
No reason for the rise provided by the central bank

The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose by 0.4% on a week-on-week basis to $4.3 billion, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

On March 10, 2023, the SBP’s foreign currency reserves stood at $4,319.1 million, up by $18 million compared to $4,301 million on March 3.

The central bank didn’t give any reason for the rise.

Overall, the liquid foreign currency reserves held by the country, including the net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $9,846.8 million. The net reserves held by banks amounted to $5,527.7 million.

Ismail Iqbal Securities, Head of Research, Fahad Rauf recently said that any further improvement in Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves level depended on the revival of International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loan programme and the inflow of fresh financing from other multilateral and bilateral creditors.

“They (FX reserves) are projected to rise to around $7-8 billion by the end of the current fiscal year on June 30, 2023,” he said.

The country’s reserves have continued to improve after the central bank opted to buy US dollars from the interbank market in wake of a surge in supply of the greenback compared to its demand.

“Availability of surplus US dollars in the interbank market has prompted the central bank to intervene (buy the surplus),” said a source.

Express Tribune
 
‘Dollar-starved’ Pakistan struggles to pay international airlines: report

The global air transport body has warned of an ‘aviation crisis’ in Pakistan as airlines are struggling to recover $290 million due to a severe financial crisis, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) has said it was trying to pay the airlines on time and has been in contact with relevant authorities over the issue.

The Financial Times, while quoting the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said it has become “very challenging” for carriers to serve Pakistan as they struggle to repatriate their dues which are paid in dollars.

The IATA, which represents some 300 airlines comprising 83 per cent of global air traffic, said $290m were stuck in Pakistan as of January up by almost a third since December.

“Airlines are facing long delays before they are able to repatriate their funds,” Philip Goh, the IATA’s Asia-Pacific head, was quoted as saying by FT. “Some airlines still have funds stuck in Pakistan from sales in 2022.”

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1742627/d...truggles-to-pay-international-airlines-report
 
TEXTILE SECTOR ON VERGE OF DEFAULT, APTMA WRITES TO GOV SBP

All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) has warned that the textile sector is on the verge of default, ARY News reported on Tuesday.

In a letter to governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmed, the APTMA said that currently the textile industry is facing three major issues.

The textile sector is on 50 percent less production capacity and approximately 7 million people have lost their jobs in textile sector.

The letter further states that if the textile sector is closed over 10 million people will lose their jobs across the country and 10 billion lost to the annual imports

The cotton production has decreased to 5 million bales which is why the textile industry will have to import 10 million more cotton bales.

APTMA has informed the Governor SBP that cotton stocks are almost finished and the textile mills will be closed soon because of no industrial cotton.

Furthermore, the letter stated that the already imported cotton consignment are stuck at the port, the APTMA urged the Governor SBP to open the LCs of cotton import.

...
https://arynews.tv/textile-sector-on-verge-of-default-aptma-writes-to-gov-sbp/
 
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