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Is Pakistan in danger of going the Sri Lanka way due to economic pressures?

Pakistan on Tuesday approved a supplementary grant of Rs27 billion to avert a looming default on account of diesel purchase payments to Kuwait --- a move that might create problems in other areas because of the country's efforts to keep the overall expenses within the limits agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet, which approved the supplementary grant to settle the diesel payments, also sanctioned another Rs2.9 billion to partly offset the wheat shortage in the Gilgit-Baltistan region.

The two decisions by the cabinet body show the extreme economic difficulties that the government is facing in avoiding a default in one area but ending up creating troubles in others.

Sources in the finance ministry said there were verbal instructions to the accountant general of Pakistan revenue (AGPR) to delay the clearance of some non-salary bills for a few weeks to create fiscal space.

A finance ministry handout read that the Petroleum Division had submitted to the ECC a summary on the credit facility extended by the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) against the supply of diesel under a contract with the Pakistan State Oil (PSO) since 2000.

It added that the term contract was extended every year and the agreement had already lapsed in December.

The Petroleum Division informed the ECC that four payments were still pending.
The finance ministry stated that the PSO deposited the rupee equivalent with the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) after 30 days from the date of the bill of lading of each shipment.

The NBP then transferred the cargo cost to the KPC in Kuwait.

“In the current situation, this account has witnessed huge exchange losses due to upheaval in the rupee-dollar parity during the last 12 months,” the finance ministry’s statement read.

“Considering the above situation, the ECC approved an immediate technical supplementary grant of Rs27 billion for [the] Kuwait Petroleum Company,” it added.

Under a deal with the IMF, Pakistan is committed to either slash expenditures equal to a supplementary grant or levy additional taxes of the same amount.
In December, the ECC had avoided taking the responsibility and did not clear requests for Rs17 billion in supplementary grants.

The ECC had set up a committee to give recommendations to settle the claims against foreign exchange losses being faced because of the KPC credit facility, FE-25 loan scheme and Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) lending being availed by the PSO for import financing purposes.

However, the committee has not yet finalised its recommendations.

The ECC was informed that an international default situation was “developing” and the available funds were short beyond March 20, 2023.

According to Petroleum Division sources, the NBP account had a balance of Rs14.3 billion against the payments of Rs42 billion,.

“There is [a] definite possibility of [an] international default unless an injection of Rs27 billion is made before 20th March 2023,” according to the Petroleum Division correspondence.

Despite extreme difficulties, the government has decided to give a subsidy of Rs50 per litre to up to 800cc car owners, motorcyclists and rickshaws.

According to the minister of state for petroleum, they account for more than 51% of the total consumption.

This may cause wastage besides creating additional demand for petrol imports amid a scarcity of foreign exchange.

Wheat subsidy

The ECC considered a summary on wheat supply to Gilgit-Baltistan and approved an immediate release of 25,000 metric tons of wheat to the region for the months of March and April this year.

According to the finance ministry, the reason behind the move was to avoid shortage of wheat in G-B, especially during the holy month of Ramazan.

It added that keeping in view the current wheat price, the ECC granted an additional amount of Rs2.9 billion to meet the urgent requirements of G-B.

The ECC further directed the Kashmir affairs and G-B ministry to submit a comprehensive plan for price rationalisation in consultation with the stakeholders for the consideration of the cabinet body within 30 days.

The wheat flour sale price in G-B is just Rs12.5 per kg against more than Rs140 across the country.

However, wheat and flour were not available to the people of the region on subsidised rates because of a number of governance issues, the ECC was informed.

The federal government provides 160,000 metric tons of wheat annually to G-B.

During the current fiscal year, an amount of Rs8 billion was allocated for wheat procurement for G-B that have been fully utilised with around 90,000 metric ton supplies.

This was because of the increased cost of the imported wheat and enhanced transportation charges, the ECC was informed.

The regional government was of the view that supplies had been held up and wheat prices in the grey market of the G-B region had increased substantially.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had directed to immediately release 26,666 metric tons of wheat for the months of March and April this year along with an allocation of Rs2.5 billion to meet the urgent requirements of G-B.

However, the ECC approved 1,660 metric tons less than what the premier wanted.

Still, there will be a shortage of 45,000 metric tons of wheat during the current fiscal year.

The G-B government is considering to withdraw the general subsidy.

It is planning to give only targeted subsidy because of the shortage of funds and abnormally low wheat flour price of just Rs12.5 per kg.

Express Tribune
 
Flour distribution stampedes kill one, injure several in Charsadda, Kohat

CHARSADDA/KOHAT/LAKKI MARWAT: A man was killed and several people injured during free flour distribution stampedes in Charsadda and Kohat districts on Thursday.

Also, a man died of critical injuries he suffered after the boundary wall of a flour mill in Bannu district collapsed on him.

Flour distribution is under way across the province in line with the caretaker government’s announcement of the supply of Rs19.77 billion flour to over 5.7 million deserving families of the province free of charge during Ramazan, the month of fasting.

A stampede happened in the main Charsadda bazaar when hundreds of people showed up to receive free flour. Sher Afzal was killed and Jamal, Sher Alam and a woman injured in the incident, which, according to witnesses, occurred after some people fell on the ground.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1743790/f...es-kill-one-injure-several-in-charsadda-kohat
 
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has said that the federal government will overcome the economic crisis and Pakistan will see prosperity and development soon, ARY News reported on Friday.

The finance minister said that the drop in foreign reserves was stopped and the government is making efforts to reverse it. He detailed that $126 billion was increased in the national economy from 2013 to 2018, whereas, only $26 billion was increased in the economy in the next five years.

“The current account deficit of eight months is below $4 billion. It is a surprise for the whole world that Pakistan does not become Sri Lanka. Pakistan will not default as all debt repayments are made on time. Pakistan has never defaulted nor it will default in future.”
 
US think tank says Pakistan faces 'real danger' of defaulting on its debt
USIP report says if Pakistan defaults there will be a “cascade of disruptive effects"

As Pakistan is going through one of its biggest economic crises in history — the Washington-based think tank United States Institute of Peace (USIP) — has warned that there is “a real danger that Pakistan could default on debt”.

In an analysis and commentary published on Thursday, the author warned that amid skyrocketing inflation, political conflicts, and rising terrorism, the country is facing the risk of a default due to its massive external debt obligations.

It was added that the looming default danger could further intensify political turmoil amid already surging terrorism.

The cash-strapped nation of 220 million people is reeling with the repercussions of a deepening political crisis — which initially began in April last year when former prime minister Imran Khan was ousted through a vote of no-confidence motion — and the derailment of the $6.5 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

Islamabad has been hosting an IMF mission since late January to negotiate a series of policy measures to secure $1.1 billion in funding for the cash-strapped economy, which is on the verge of collapse.

The funds are part of a $6.5 billion bailout package the IMF approved in 2019, which analysts say is critical for Pakistan to avert defaulting on external payment obligations.

The deal will also unlock other bilateral and multilateral financing avenues for Pakistan to shore up its foreign exchange reserves, which have fallen to four weeks’ worth of import cover, and help it steer out of a balance of payment crisis.

...
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1...n-faces-real-danger-of-defaulting-on-its-debt
 
Pakistan inflation soars past Sri Lanka's amid weakening rupee
Pakistan takes the crown for Asia’s fastest inflation, with inflation surging to 36.4% in April—the highest since 1964

Pakistan's inflation rate has outpaced Sri Lanka's, becoming the fastest in Asia, as the rupee’s 20% drop against the dollar this year and rising food and energy costs drive up consumer prices.

According to a report published in Bloomberg on Tuesday, consumer prices surged 36.4% in April compared to the previous year, the highest increase since 1964.

Data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday revealed that transport prices skyrocketed by 56.8%, food inflation rose 48.1%, clothing and footwear costs increased 21.6%, and housing, water and electricity bills climbed 16.9%.

In contrast, inflation rate eased to 35.3% in April for Sri Lanka, a regional neighbour facing similar economic woes.

According to Bloomberg, the Pakistani rupee's weak performance in 2023 — one of the worst in the world — has made imported goods more expensive, further exacerbating inflation.

The country’s inflation is expected to rise further after authorities increased taxes and fuel prices to meet the IMF's requirements for a $6.5 billion loan revival. The bailout funds are essential for Pakistan to afford crucial imports and avoid defaults, but the IMF demands financing assurances before resuming aid.

Economist Ankur Shukla said he believes the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is unlikely to raise interest rates further, as real rates have turned positive on a 12-month forward-looking basis. He projected inflation will peak in May and gradually slow down as food prices cool and high year-earlier base effects kick in.

Last month, the SBP raised its benchmark interest rate to 21%, the highest level since 1956, in an attempt to control price pressures.

The next monetary policy review is scheduled for June 12.

Uzair Younus, a director at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, told Bloomberg that recent data indicates the central bank's optimism about inflation plateauing might be misplaced.

...
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2414692/pakistan-inflation-soars-past-sri-lankas-amid-weakening-rupee
 
[MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION], man now mun......fiq are not showng up here.
 
[MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION], man now mun......fiq are not showng up here.

They disappeared quickly after the celebrated the coup. The guy that claimed that the real PM( SS) will show us how a country will be run, has realised that we were right and his crooks could organise a **** up in a brewery
 
Pakistan needs to repay $3.7bn debt by June: Fitch

Pakistan needs to repay another $3.7 billion in external debt by the end of June 30 this year, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

During the entire current fiscal year, the country has been struggling to avoid default with the help of friendly countries and multilateral lending agencies but the next fiscal year is about to begin with another huge requirement of dollars.

In an interview with Bloomberg, a Fitch Rating official said Pakistan would have to repay $3.7bn up to June 2023. The Fitch official expects China would roll over a $2.4bn loan maturing next month.

According to the report, Pakistan has to pay $700m in May and $3bn in June. Despite support from Saudi Arabia and UAE, the IMF remained unsatisfied. Staff-level agreement for $1.1.bn could not be concluded.

The prime minister as well as the finance minister has been announcing that Pakistan has fulfilled all the pre-conditions to conclude the 9th review but the IMF is unmoved.

Former finance minister Miftah Ismail recently told a private TV channel that the IMF should release the tranche since all the conditions have been met. Delaying the release of the tranche would have a bad impact on the economy.

...
https://www.dawn.com/news/1751156/pakistan-needs-to-repay-37bn-debt-by-june-fitch
 
Pakistan needs significant additional financing for a successful completion of the long-stalled ninth review of the International Monetary Fund's bailout package, the IMF said in a scheduled press conference on Thursday.

Obtaining commitments of "significant additional financing" is essential before the IMF approves the release of pending bailout funds that are crucial for Pakistan to resolve an acute balance of payments crisis.

A staff-level accord to release a $1.1 billion tranche out of a $6.5 billion IMF package has been delayed since November, with nearly 100 days gone since the last staff level mission to Pakistan. That is the longest such gap since at least 2008.

Julie Kozack, IMF spokeswoman, said that financing already committed by Pakistan's external partners was welcomed.

The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and China came to Pakistan's assistance in March and April with pledges that would cover some of the funding deficit.

On Thursday, Pakistan's central bank reserves fell $74 mln to $4.38 billion, barely a month's worth of imports.

"Our team is very heavily engaged of course with the Pakistani authorities, because Pakistan indeed faces a very challenging situation," said Kozack.

She added that the economy was facing stagflation, has very large financing needs and has also been affected by a series of shocks including severe floods.

Pakistan has committed not to implement a cross-subsidy programme, an IMF spokesperson told Bloomberg News. The government also will not introduce new tax exemptions and will “durably allow” a market-based exchange rate for the rupee currency, the IMF told Bloomberg on Thursday.

In March, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif proposed charging affluent consumers more for fuel, with the money raised used to subsidise prices for the poor who have been hit hard by inflation. The proposed scheme was seen as one of the reasons for the delay in implementing the IMF bailout.

Reuters
 
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Wednesday asserted that the country was not on the verge of a financial crisis and “will absolutely not default”.

Dar’s remarks comes amid growing fears of default, propelled by the country’s declining remittances and foreign exchange reserves, as well as a prolonged delay in reaching an accord with the International Monetary Fund for the release of a $1.1 billion tranche out of a $6.5bn loan package.

Addressing the fears during a gathering at the Federal Board of Revenue in Islamabad, the finance minister commended his economic team for its “efforts and hard work”, pointing out that the country had recorded a current account surplus for the months of March and April at $750 million and $18m, respectively.

Regarding the ongoing negotiations with the IMF for release of the long-awaited bailout tranche, Dar said his team had completed all the technical work and prior actions required for the completion of the ninth review.
 
Pakistan outlines process for barter trade with Afghanistan, Iran, Russia

Pakistan has passed a special order to allow barter trade with Afghanistan, Iran and Russia for certain goods, including petroleum and natural gas, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.

Left with barely enough foreign exchange reserves to cover one month's imports, Pakistan's government is desperately trying to manage a balance of payments crisis and bring inflation under control after it hit a record of nearly 38% last month.

The government order, called the Business-to-business (B2B) Barter Trade Mechanism 2023 and dated June 1, lists goods that can be bartered. State and privately owned entities would need approval to participate in the trade mechanism.

Sajid Amin, deputy director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, said Pakistan could gain particularly from oil and energy imports from Russia and Iran without adding to dollar demand. He added that the barter opportunity is important considering the dollar shortages the countries face.

"While it may not solve currency smuggling, particularly at the Afghanistan border, it can discourage smuggling of goods from Iran, such as diesel, and Afghanistan which is hurting the economy," Amin added.

After Pakistan's first purchase of discounted Russian oil in April, petroleum minister Musadik Malik told Reuters that Pakistan would only be buying crude, not refined products, under the deal.

There was no confirmation about how payment would be made but Malik said purchases could rise to 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) if the first transaction went smoothly.

Last year, Pakistan imported 154,000 bpd of crude oil, little changed from 2021, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

In May, the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association complained that up to 35% of the diesel sold in Pakistan had been smuggled from Iran.

Pakistan's government has also ordered a clampdown on smuggling of flour, wheat, sugar and fertilizer to Afghanistan.
 
Former State Bank governor Reza Baqir expressed concern over Pakistan’s proximity to def*ault, saying that he is “more concerned than ever”.

Speaking during the final session of the ******tan Literature Festival, held here on Saturday, the former head of the central bank said that the country needs a constructive relationship with the financial institutions it seeks to rely on for support.

Titled ‘The root causes of Pakistan’s Economic Crisis and how to address them’ and moderated by Nadir Cheema, the all-male discussion panel also featured economist Ishrat Hussain, Zafar Masud and former FBR chairman Shabbar Zaidi.
 
Non-availability of dollars: No eatables, drinks to be imported from June 25, say grocers
Thousands of containers are stuck at the port and they are paying fines and other charges on them, say wholesellers

KARACHI: Commercial importers have announced to stop the import of all eatables and drinks from June 25 due to the non-provision of dollars.

The Karachi Wholesale Grocers Association Secretary, Farhat Siddique, has issued a statement for body members, saying that all banks have refused to provide them with dollars. He said the association in this regard held a meeting in which all importers and indenting agents participated. After a thorough discussion, it was decided that importers should inform their indenters that no shipment should be dispatched after June 25. According to the statement, the importers are only responsible for the clearance of goods that have reached the port or are on the way. No shipment would be cleared that was dispatched after June 25. The Karachi Wholesale Grocers Association said that due to lack of foreign currency, thousands of containers are stuck at the port and they are paying fines and other charges on them.

The statement said the State Bank of Pakistan is not providing the much-needed foreign exchange and its policies are extremely harmful to the country’s economy.

The News PK
 
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