Is the future bright for Pakistan in 2022?

[MenInG]

Some food for thought (a few optimistic ones) and we can then take the discussion forward:

==

Economy predictions for Pakistan in 2022

Economy related predictions to impact Pakistan in 2022 include:

Pakistan's debt and other repayments on China's "Belt and Road" initiative peaks at around $5 billion
this year, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor. Likelihood: 100%

Under the circular debt reduction plan, the government improves the collection of electricity bills to 99.4% this year, up from 94.7% in 2019. Likelihood: 80%

Pakistan's debt and other repayments on China's "Belt and Road" initiative peaks at around $5 billion this year, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor. Likelihood: 100%

Pakistan's repayments on CPEC to peak at $5b in 2022: Chief economist.


Technology predictions for Pakistan in 2022

Technology related predictions to impact Pakistan in 2022 include:

Hybrid wheat seeds become available in Pakistan from this year. Farmers expect these seeds will help increase crop production by at least 40-45% compared to the conventional seed varieties which the country previously used for cultivating. Likelihood: 100%

Pakistan sends its first astronaut into space this year. Likelihood: 90%

Hybrid wheat seeds become available in Pakistan from this year. Farmers expect these seeds will help increase crop production by at least 40-45% compared to the conventional seed varieties which the country previously used for cultivating. Likelihood: 100%


Infrastructure predictions for Pakistan in 2022

Infrastructure related predictions to impact Pakistan in 2022 include:

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project is completed this year, allowing Pakistan to collect 1.32 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Likelihood: 80%

The Suki Kinari Hydropower Project is completed this year, generating 870MW capacity to the national energy grid. Likelihood: 90%

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project is completed this year, allowing Pakistan to collect 1.32 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Likelihood: 80%

Suki Kinari hydropower project to provide 870mw by 2022

By 2022, ‘Chinese city’ to house 5 lakh Chinese nationals in Pakistan as part of CPEC

Pakistan’s wind, solar energy production to be doubled by 2022


Health predictions for Pakistan in 2022

Health related predictions to impact Pakistan in 2022 include:

UAE-Pakistan Assistance Programme eradicates Polio from Pakistan by this year. Likelihood: 100%

https://www.quantumrun.com/country-predictions/pakistan/2022

 

[Last Monetarist]

I don't expect the economy to improve in 2022, the situation can only deteriorate further for the common man.

Inflation rates will not normalize until global energy prices stabilize, but the bigger problem for inflation is exchange rate depreciation, and I expect the rupee to trade above 200 against the dollar soonish.

The only silver lining for the Pakistan economy in the long-run is digitization of industries and the inflow of FDI in the venture capital industry. Those capital flows should continue to grow.

 

[PakLFC]

It will be the usual other then possibly Nawaz Sharif returning to complicate matters even more. Nothing changes in Pak.

 

[Forward Defensive Push]

More debts and higher inflation.. Of course bright

 

[saeedhk]

It is only downhill from here. In fact, nobody should be hopeful because the country is beyond recovery. How can a country progress when half of its school-age population is out of school? All this talk of increasing exports means nothing when with every passing day, the average Pakistan is getting poorer and poorer.

Also, with the mainstreaming of extremist outfits and the government and military’s total helplessness in the face of rabid mullahs will see more violence, shootings, beheadings and an eventual total international boycott of Pakistan. It is becoming more and more embarrassing to be a Pakistan with every passing day! There is zero good news coming out of the country and Pakistan is always in the news for violence, poverty, cruelty. The world is also becoming fed-up with Pakistan’s extremism problems and the misuses of the blasphemy as evident by a an EU resolution tabled in April.

 

[MenInG]

It is only downhill from here. In fact, nobody should be hopeful because the country is beyond recovery. How can a country progress when half of its school-age population is out of school? All this talk of increasing exports means nothing when with every passing day, the average Pakistan is getting poorer and poorer.

Also, with the mainstreaming of extremist outfits and the government and military’s total helplessness in the face of rabid mullahs will see more violence, shootings, beheadings and an eventual total international boycott of Pakistan. It is becoming more and more embarrassing to be a Pakistan with every passing day! There is zero good news coming out of the country and Pakistan is always in the news for violence, poverty, cruelty. The world is also becoming fed-up with Pakistan’s extremism problems and the misuses of the blasphemy as evident by a an EU resolution tabled in April.

Its not downhill from here.

Alhamdolillah and despite your hopes, this country continues to exist and thrive.

 

[Bewal Express]

The single biggest thing for our economy is the price of oil and gas. If that stays around $70 or less, we could be heading for 6% growth, and lower inflation. We need a massive effort for import substitution but that takes years. We also need a massive effort on reducing our water wastage in agriculture through drip pipes. If we do that we could increase our production and start to export foods.

 

[Bewal Express]

Its not downhill from here.

Alhamdolillah and despite your hopes, this country continues to exist and thrive.

You don't realise these guys pray for our demise. Remember when Corona broke, some of these losers were praying for deaths so that they could IK incompetent.

 

[gazza619]

What i care most about is if the police and justice system will improve

 

[finalfantasy7]

how much did the gdp increase as a percentage this yr and whats are they expecting next yr?

 

[saeedhk]

Its not downhill from here.

Alhamdolillah and despite your hopes, this country continues to exist and thrive.

Existing is not enough! What is the use of a country if the living standard of the people is worse than animals and 80% of the populace drinks tainted water. This is shameful!

 

[MenInG]

Existing is not enough! What is the use of a country if the living standard of the people is worse than animals and 80% of the populace drinks tainted water. This is shameful!

Millions of Pakistanis are living well and harmoniously.

The only thing shameful is your obvious desire for the country to fail.

Best to add something constructive to this thread based on what's in Post #1.

 

[saeedhk]

Millions of Pakistanis are living well and harmoniously.

The only thing shameful is your obvious desire for the country to fail.

Best to add something constructive to this thread based on what's in Post #1.

Only politicians, generals and bureaucrats are living a good life; the majority is living a life of poverty, misery and cruelty. We can only go towards a solution after we do admit that Pakistan is, generally, a terrible place to live.

As I have mentioned above, this country cannot improve because the people are uber dishonest and the government has no desire to improve the lives of its citizens. In this age, while the rest of is going beyond space, 5 out 10 Pakistani children are still out of school and PM Imran is opening research centers to investigate how mystics and sufis of past teleported, brought people back to live and walked on water. If this is not sickening to you, then I have nothing to say!

 

[MenInG]

Only politicians, generals and bureaucrats are living a good life; the majority is living a life of poverty, misery and cruelty. We can only go towards a solution after we do admit that Pakistan is, generally, a terrible place to live.

As I have mentioned above, this country cannot improve because the people are uber dishonest and the government has no desire to improve the lives of its citizens. In this age, while the rest of is going beyond space, 5 out 10 Pakistani children are still out of school and PM Imran is opening research centers to investigate how mystics and sufis of past teleported, brought people back to live and walked on water. If this is not sickening to you, then I have nothing to say!

Majority of people are living normal lives that people live in the sub-continent.

Things do not change over night.

I have been hearing negative stuff on Pakistan's future for a while, but Pakistan persists. I know that will hurt some but live with it.

 

[mazkhan]

The single biggest thing for our economy is the price of oil and gas. If that stays around $70 or less, we could be heading for 6% growth, and lower inflation. We need a massive effort for import substitution but that takes years. We also need a massive effort on reducing our water wastage in agriculture through drip pipes. If we do that we could increase our production and start to export foods.

The messiah has put 17% tax on drip pipe and irrigation systems including sprinkler systems also agricultural machinery harvesters and diesel engines used in agriculture

 

[MenInG]

The country’s economy unexpectedly entered into a relatively higher growth mode despite underperforming during the calendar year 2021.

The incentives-laden original budget presented in June 2021 for the current fiscal year set the stage for a further expansion in businesses and economy.

The stimulus package, the then low benchmark interest rate at 7%, slightly overvalued rupee and central bank measures to inject ample liquidity into the system through different schemes accelerated business and economic activities beyond expectations during the second half of the year 2021 -- July-December.

Accordingly, the economy became overheated with inflation reaching a 21-month high double digit at 11.5% in November 2021.

The import bill hit a record high of $8 billion in the month, trade deficit widened to a record high at over $5 billion and the current account deficit soared to a 40-month high at $1.9 billion in the month.

The expansion in the economy beyond authorities’ expectations during Jul-Dec 2021 (which is first half of current fiscal year 2022 as well) and significant rise in global commodity prices like petroleum products and LNG – which was a major cause of the surge in monthly import bill and current account deficit – started reducing foreign exchange reserves and caused notable depreciation of 17% (or around Rs26) in domestic currency to record low of Rs178.24 against the US dollar by December 29, 2021 compared with 22-month high of Rs152.27 in May 2021 in the inter-bank market.

The developments prompted the central bank to aggressively increase the benchmark interest rate by a cumulative 2.75 percentage points during Sep-Dec 2021 to 9.75% at present.

The targeted measure of the rate hike was aimed at controlling inflation, narrowing down the current account deficit and improving the balance of international payments.

At the same time, it helped limiting economic growth to pre-planned level of around 5% in the current fiscal year 2022 against the existing potential for higher economic growth.

"The growth of over 5.25-5.5% would damage the economy if taken in current fiscal year 2022," Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin had recently said.

Earlier, the country unexpectedly saw a jump in economic growth to 4% in the previous fiscal year 2021 against the contraction of 0.5% in the prior fiscal year 2020 amid Covid-19 pandemic.

The year 2021 also saw the International Monetary Fund (IMF) $6 billion loan programme resuming in February 2021 after remaining on hold for the past one-year amid the pandemic.

The programme was again halted in June 2021 on difference between the government and IMF teams on the way to deal with the financial crisis in Pakistan.

Recently, the two sides reached a staff-level agreement in late November 2021 to resume the programme.

The IMF Board would be presented with the sixth review of the economy under the loan programme on January 12, 2022.

Accordingly, the IMF would release the next tranche of $1 billion of the loan to Pakistan in January-February 2022.

This will be followed by raising foreign debt by selling Sukuk (Islamic bond) by the government in international market, other inflows from multilateral and bilateral lender and rollover of maturing foreign debt during the year 2022.

Such inflows are estimated to build up foreign exchange reserves by net $1.3 billion to $27.5 billion by end of June 2022 and help the rupee to partially recover ground against the US dollar in the inter-bank market during the year.

Now the nation has entered 2022 with the benchmark interest rate reaching close to its peak expected at 10% in March 2022.

The rupee partially recovered almost 1% (or Rs1.73) against the US dollar in the last two working days of December 2021 to Rs176.51 after losing to a record low of Rs178.24 on December 29, 2021.

The expected cut in the benchmark interest rate to 9.25% during second half of calendar year 2022 and stabilisation in the rupee-dollar parity at around Rs178 against the US dollar till end of June 2022 would reset the economy back to high growth mode from second quarter (April-June) of 2022 and onwards.

"The inflation reading is expected to slow down into single digit and current account deficit coming back into affordable range of $600-800 per month from February-March 2022 and onwards," said Pak-Kuwait Investment Company Head of Research Samiullah Tariq.

However, Fahad Rauf, the head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, said the second half of 2022 might see increased political noise.

“This will be because political parties would start preparations for the next parliamentary poll expected in fourth quarter (October-December) of 2023," he added.

The preparations may prod the ruling PTI party to spend more on development projects and the masses to keep intact its vote bank.

The expected higher spending, however, might increase the deficit in fiscal year 2023, as the completion of IMF loan programme of $6 billion in September 2022 (as per the original programme) would allow the government to increase spending beyond available resources.

The calendar year 2022 may see improvement in inflation, some appreciation in the rupee against the dollar and cut in current account deficit.

“However, "they (inflation, rupee-dollar parity and deficit) would remain elevated during 2022," Rauf added.

The next fiscal year 2023 is expected to record an economic growth of 5.4% compared to 5.2% estimated for ongoing fiscal year 2022, said Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Tahir Abbas.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2336524/as-gloomy-year-ends-2022-shows-economic-uplift

 

[saeedhk]

Majority of people are living normal lives that people live in the sub-continent.

Things do not change over night.

I have been hearing negative stuff on Pakistan's future for a while, but Pakistan persists. I know that will hurt some but live with it.

Persisting is different than progressing. The fact that country has merely persisted for the last 7 decades shows that there is no progress in sight.

 

[Afzal_K]

Sick and tired of hatred,wars,killing - all around the world. Pandemic ne sabki bajadi, ab to bas karo - let there be happiness for all mankind

 

[Syed1]

Hoping for 5.5-6% GDP growth in FY22... We are well on our way to achieving that. Furthermore hoping for a decrease in inflation to about 7-8% and further reduction in FY23.


I hope PTI successfully manage to roll out their proposed local government system in Punjab with directly elected mayors and tehsil chairmans. Irrespective of the result this will be a massive change in Pakistan and would be a step towards true democracy.


In 2022, I do hope Nawaz Sharif is dragged back to Pakistan and put in jail to pay for his crimes. His daughter and rest of the corrupt clan meet the same fate. Also it is hoped that cases against Zardari clan stop being delayed and reach conclusion. None of this can happen while our lovely establishment has their shield up for blue eyed boys Sharif and Zardari.

 

[Major]

Millions of Pakistanis are living well and harmoniously.

The only thing shameful is your obvious desire for the country to fail.

Best to add something constructive to this thread based on what's in Post #1.

Sure, if the millions of Pakistanis you are talking about are the elite class. Obviously they will live well and harmoniously.

The country is failing.......

Inflation is skyrocketing and now on jan 1st, the pm has rolled the dice to take us for hyper inflation with the 17% tax rates being imposed now. Just one tax increase already saw many of us the change of prices in the goods yesterday and today.

Petrol is now on 144 new all time high achieved by the former captain.

New jobs that were to created, those never came. Was it Murad Saeed or Fasail Vawda who once made the claims that next week more jobs are coming. That week never came.

The country is in dire state. They even messed up with the education sector by introducing the worst reform possible called the SNC which has become a mockery now.

December has ended, January has started and we are still facing gas load shedding.

LG elections in Punjab are coming up, every local body that did no work for the last 3-4 years has now started to make roads and add pipelines just to appease the people now, and as usual to save cost and make huge profits poor material would be used so that by the time of elections of lg are over, the roads would break apart and than we wait for next LG electiosn for them to start doing something to win the election.

Every person, every passerby in this country has something awful to say for the pm for what he h caused in the country.

 

[MenInG]

Sure, if the millions of Pakistanis you are talking about are the elite class. Obviously they will live well and harmoniously.

The country is failing.......

Inflation is skyrocketing and now on jan 1st, the pm has rolled the dice to take us for hyper inflation with the 17% tax rates being imposed now. Just one tax increase already saw many of us the change of prices in the goods yesterday and today.

Petrol is now on 144 new all time high achieved by the former captain.

New jobs that were to created, those never came. Was it Murad Saeed or Fasail Vawda who once made the claims that next week more jobs are coming. That week never came.

The country is in dire state. They even messed up with the education sector by introducing the worst reform possible called the SNC which has become a mockery now.

December has ended, January has started and we are still facing gas load shedding.

LG elections in Punjab are coming up, every local body that did no work for the last 3-4 years has now started to make roads and add pipelines just to appease the people now, and as usual to save cost and make huge profits poor material would be used so that by the time of elections of lg are over, the roads would break apart and than we wait for next LG electiosn for them to start doing something to win the election.

Every person, every passerby in this country has something awful to say for the pm for what he h caused in the country.

Only those with a political inclination.

Not sure if you remember when ZAB was around and everyone used to say the same.

I dont want to make this into a political thread.

Was hoping that some fair-minded people would come up and tell us about so many positives that this country has to offer but seems nothing has changed.

 

[moghul]

Ik has to increase the SR to get close to the target for 2023 , he has wasted lots of overs and the required run rate is climbing, but knowing him, he can do it.

 

[Itachi]

The title of the thread is "Is the future bright for Pakistan in 2022?"

The answer can be yes or no.

It is a bit misdirection to hope that people will come with only optimism and avoid what is going on in ground reality.

The title can be changed in to "things that gives us hope for Pakistan in 2022"

In that case, the title fits the narrative of what is expected.

 

[MenInG]

The title of the thread is "Is the future bright for Pakistan in 2022?"

The answer can be yes or no.

It is a bit misdirection to hope that people will come with only optimism and avoid what is going on in ground reality.

The title can be changed in to "things that gives us hope for Pakistan in 2022"

In that case, the title fits the narrative of what is expected.

No its not a misdirection.

Its a call for discussion. Doesn't need to be black or white.

You can say NO, its not bright due to specific reasons instead of launching into a rant or say Yes, seems we are headed in the right direction.