Oil shock incoming? How the Iran-US conflict could hit global fuel prices

[Cricket Warrior]

The recent tensions and military actions between the United States and Iran have raised serious concerns about global oil markets. Since the Middle East is one of the world’s most important regions for oil production and transport, any conflict there can quickly impact oil prices worldwide.

One of the biggest concerns is the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which a large portion of the world’s oil supply passes. If the situation escalates and oil shipments are disrupted, prices could rise sharply, affecting fuel costs, transportation, and overall inflation across many countries.

Countries that rely heavily on imported oil are likely to feel the biggest impact. Major importers such as India, Pakistan, China, Japan, and many European countries could face higher fuel prices and economic pressure. At the same time, oil-exporting nations in the Gulf, like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq, could also face instability if production or shipping routes are threatened.

Many analysts believe that even the fear of supply disruption is enough to push markets upward. The big question now is: Will this conflict cause a short-term spike in oil prices, or could it lead to a longer global energy shock?

What do you think are we heading toward another oil crisis or will the market stabilize soon?

 

[finalfantasy7]

Imo yes, it will increase - as this war will keep coming back in a few months imo, cuz like what occured in gaza

fuel map uk = https://fuelmap.co.uk/

@Cricket Warrior - which country do you live in and do you have any website like the above

 

[Cricket Warrior]

Imo yes, it will increase - as this war will keep coming back in a few months imo, cuz like what occured in gaza

fuel map uk = https://fuelmap.co.uk/

@Cricket Warrior - which country do you live in and do you have any website like the above

I am in Pakistan.. no unfortunatley we dont have any website who can provide such information so we have to all rely on media sources

 

[Vikram1989]

I think india is already in talks with multiple countries,Usa, Venezuela,opec and Gcc.russia have already informed they are ready to jump in.indian govt has every chance to resume Russian oil supply again.

 

[sweep_shot]

I think india is already in talks with multiple countries,Usa, Venezuela,opec and Gcc.russia have already informed they are ready to jump in.indian govt has every chance to resume Russian oil supply again.

You think?

So, it is not confirmed. You are guessing.

After India's backstabbing behavior, no country should make a deal with India.

 

[Kianig89]

Reports that in Pakistan, price may go up around Rs. 40-70 /- litre, and that really would be disastrous

 

[CricVet]

Prices have already climbed up in USA for many daily needs. If you guys buy Indian/Pak/Bad groceries, stock up for short term if you can.

 

[sweep_shot]

Prices have already climbed up in USA for many daily needs. If you guys buy Indian/Pak/Bad groceries, stock up for short term if you can.

Yup.

We need to be prepared for the worst. These are volatile and unpredictable times.

 

[m.shah]

India was supplied by Russia but thanks to compromised pm that has been halted/reduced to great extent. So prices may go up here.

 

[big_gamer007]

America planned it well, they first took over Venezuelan Oil before attacking Iran.

 

[finalfantasy7]

I think india is already in talks with multiple countries,Usa, Venezuela,opec and Gcc.russia have already informed they are ready to jump in.indian govt has every chance to resume Russian oil supply again.

i think your talks with venezuala = is forced by trump . .... why did you word it up as it was india decision

 

[Kianig89]

Not only Oil shock, a complete economic shock is coming, like from Pakistan to Gulf meat export is halted, remittances wil be cut also, inflation will further increase in many countries. lets see what happens to $ Dollar rate in coming days.

 

[Ball Blazer]

US eases sanctions on Russian oil sales to India during Iran conflict​

The US government has temporarily eased sanctions to allow India to buy Russian oil currently stranded at sea, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 30-day waiver was a "deliberate short-term measure" to allow oil to keep flowing in the global market.

Millions of barrels of oil and gas are stuck near the Strait of Hormuz - a narrow Gulf chokepoint through which nearly half of India's crude oil and gas imports transits. Tehran has threatened to attack vessels attempting to pass through since the US and Israel began their war against Iran.

The US sanctioned Russian oil following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, forcing buyers to seek alternatives.

Washington has put particular pressure on India - a major buyer of Russian energy - to stop buying its oil in an effort to reduce money flowing to fund the invasion.

Bessent said the waiver would "not provide significant financial benefit" to Russia as it only authorised transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.

"This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran's attempt to take global energy hostage," Bessent said on X.

The indefinite halt in supplies has triggered fears of an impending energy crisis in India, which reportedly has crude oil and gas stocks to last for about 25 days.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has warned the war against Iran, which began last Saturday, could stretch on for four to five weeks or longer.

On Wednesday, Petronet LNG, India's ‌top ⁠gas importer, issued a force majeure notice to its supplier, QatarEnergy and its local buyers after its LNG tankers were unable to reach the loading terminal at Ras Laffan in Doha.

The Gas Authority of India Ltd (Gail) and Indian Oil Corp (IOC) have already begun reducing gas supplies to industrial customers, Reuters news agency reported on Tuesday.

In terms of oil, India imports 90% of its crude.

Around half of this, which amounts to 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day, travels through the Strait of Hormuz, largely from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

Experts say that a supply crunch due to the closure of the strait could to lead to inflation and push up India's fiscal deficit.

With the waiver in place, about 145 million barrels of Russian crude which remain on the water could potentially be redirected toward Indian ports if commercial deals are finalised, Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, told the BBC.

"However, the waiver does not fundamentally change India's structural exposure to Middle Eastern supply flows," he added.

Russian oil makes up an estimated 20% of India's total imports. The waiver marks a notable shift in the US approach to India's Russian oil imports.

Not long ago, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on India, including a 25% levy for importing oil from Russia. Trump alleged India's purchase of Russian oil was helping fund Russia's war in Ukraine.

India has always defended its purchase of Russian crude, saying that it needs to meet the energy needs of its vast population and has the right to do business with its trading partners.

But since late 2025, India reportedly began reducing its imports of Russian crude and has since boosted its crude oil purchases from the US.

In February, Trump announced a trade deal with India which slashed tariffs to 18%.

He wrote on his Truth Social platform that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had "agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and to buy much more oil from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela".

India has never officially confirmed reducing its imports of Russian crude and maintains it will not allow its trading relations to be dictated by other countries

US allows India to buy Russian oil during US-Israel war with Iran

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gives India a 30-day waiver to buy Russian crude as a "stop gap measure".

www.bbc.com

 

[Red-Indian]

Not only Oil shock, a complete economic shock is coming, like from Pakistan to Gulf meat export is halted, remittances wil be cut also, inflation will further increase in many countries. lets see what happens to $ Dollar rate in coming days.

This disruption shouldn't last too long. Countries can't take it forever and they'll start doing things like sending navy vessels to escort their ship through the straits. Iran can't fight the whole world.

For me, the issue is more the longer term uncertainty. Most of it is under the fog of war but from what I can see, no oil production facilities have been seriously damaged - including in Iran. There's the odd hit but nothing that would really impair production. The concern is that this is not a war that has a simple resolution and there's likely to be long term ripple effects. Everyone will be on edge and prices are likely to stay relatively high for a year or two. Big importing countries like China, India, Pakistan will be the worst affected. Countries like Russia, Venezuela and the US (shale producers) will benefit.

 

[KingKhanWC]

I think india is already in talks with multiple countries,Usa, Venezuela,opec and Gcc.russia have already informed they are ready to jump in.indian govt has every chance to resume Russian oil supply again.

India is awaiting orders from the White House .



If this continues by April $150 a barrel as it’s expected oil installations will be damaged . Europe has no natural resources so will suffer badly

 

[finalfantasy7]

India is awaiting orders from the White House .



If this continues by April $150 a barrel as it’s expected oil installations will be damaged . Europe has no natural resources so will suffer badly

reports are saying modi will again dance for trump, to get it cheaper

@Vikram1989 - your thoughts

 

[Kianig89]

Saudi Arabia has stepped in to secure Pakistan’s fuel supply by routing oil shipments through Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

If true good news for people of Pakistan, otherwise the fake regime will just leech the public