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Oil shock incoming? How the Iran-US conflict could hit global fuel prices

Cricket Warrior

Cricket Warrior

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The recent tensions and military actions between the United States and Iran have raised serious concerns about global oil markets. Since the Middle East is one of the world’s most important regions for oil production and transport, any conflict there can quickly impact oil prices worldwide.

One of the biggest concerns is the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which a large portion of the world’s oil supply passes. If the situation escalates and oil shipments are disrupted, prices could rise sharply, affecting fuel costs, transportation, and overall inflation across many countries.

Countries that rely heavily on imported oil are likely to feel the biggest impact. Major importers such as India, Pakistan, China, Japan, and many European countries could face higher fuel prices and economic pressure. At the same time, oil-exporting nations in the Gulf, like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq, could also face instability if production or shipping routes are threatened.

Many analysts believe that even the fear of supply disruption is enough to push markets upward. The big question now is: Will this conflict cause a short-term spike in oil prices, or could it lead to a longer global energy shock?

What do you think are we heading toward another oil crisis or will the market stabilize soon?
 
finalfantasy7 said:
Imo yes, it will increase - as this war will keep coming back in a few months imo, cuz like what occured in gaza

fuel map uk = https://fuelmap.co.uk/

@Cricket Warrior - which country do you live in and do you have any website like the above
Click to expand...
I am in Pakistan.. no unfortunatley we dont have any website who can provide such information so we have to all rely on media sources
 
I think india is already in talks with multiple countries,Usa, Venezuela,opec and Gcc.russia have already informed they are ready to jump in.indian govt has every chance to resume Russian oil supply again.
 
Vikram1989 said:
I think india is already in talks with multiple countries,Usa, Venezuela,opec and Gcc.russia have already informed they are ready to jump in.indian govt has every chance to resume Russian oil supply again.
Click to expand...

You think?

So, it is not confirmed. You are guessing. :inti

After India's backstabbing behavior, no country should make a deal with India. :inti
 
Prices have already climbed up in USA for many daily needs. If you guys buy Indian/Pak/Bad groceries, stock up for short term if you can.
 
India was supplied by Russia but thanks to compromised pm that has been halted/reduced to great extent. So prices may go up here.
 
Vikram1989 said:
I think india is already in talks with multiple countries,Usa, Venezuela,opec and Gcc.russia have already informed they are ready to jump in.indian govt has every chance to resume Russian oil supply again.
Click to expand...
i think your talks with venezuala = is forced by trump :ROFLMAO: . .... why did you word it up as it was india decision
 
Not only Oil shock, a complete economic shock is coming, like from Pakistan to Gulf meat export is halted, remittances wil be cut also, inflation will further increase in many countries. lets see what happens to $ Dollar rate in coming days.
 

US eases sanctions on Russian oil sales to India during Iran conflict​


The US government has temporarily eased sanctions to allow India to buy Russian oil currently stranded at sea, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 30-day waiver was a "deliberate short-term measure" to allow oil to keep flowing in the global market.

Millions of barrels of oil and gas are stuck near the Strait of Hormuz - a narrow Gulf chokepoint through which nearly half of India's crude oil and gas imports transits. Tehran has threatened to attack vessels attempting to pass through since the US and Israel began their war against Iran.

The US sanctioned Russian oil following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, forcing buyers to seek alternatives.

Washington has put particular pressure on India - a major buyer of Russian energy - to stop buying its oil in an effort to reduce money flowing to fund the invasion.

Bessent said the waiver would "not provide significant financial benefit" to Russia as it only authorised transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.

"This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran's attempt to take global energy hostage," Bessent said on X.

The indefinite halt in supplies has triggered fears of an impending energy crisis in India, which reportedly has crude oil and gas stocks to last for about 25 days.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has warned the war against Iran, which began last Saturday, could stretch on for four to five weeks or longer.

On Wednesday, Petronet LNG, India's ‌top ⁠gas importer, issued a force majeure notice to its supplier, QatarEnergy and its local buyers after its LNG tankers were unable to reach the loading terminal at Ras Laffan in Doha.

The Gas Authority of India Ltd (Gail) and Indian Oil Corp (IOC) have already begun reducing gas supplies to industrial customers, Reuters news agency reported on Tuesday.

In terms of oil, India imports 90% of its crude.

Around half of this, which amounts to 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day, travels through the Strait of Hormuz, largely from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

Experts say that a supply crunch due to the closure of the strait could to lead to inflation and push up India's fiscal deficit.

With the waiver in place, about 145 million barrels of Russian crude which remain on the water could potentially be redirected toward Indian ports if commercial deals are finalised, Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, told the BBC.

"However, the waiver does not fundamentally change India's structural exposure to Middle Eastern supply flows," he added.

Russian oil makes up an estimated 20% of India's total imports. The waiver marks a notable shift in the US approach to India's Russian oil imports.

Not long ago, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on India, including a 25% levy for importing oil from Russia. Trump alleged India's purchase of Russian oil was helping fund Russia's war in Ukraine.

India has always defended its purchase of Russian crude, saying that it needs to meet the energy needs of its vast population and has the right to do business with its trading partners.

But since late 2025, India reportedly began reducing its imports of Russian crude and has since boosted its crude oil purchases from the US.

In February, Trump announced a trade deal with India which slashed tariffs to 18%.

He wrote on his Truth Social platform that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had "agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and to buy much more oil from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela".

India has never officially confirmed reducing its imports of Russian crude and maintains it will not allow its trading relations to be dictated by other countries

www.bbc.com

US allows India to buy Russian oil during US-Israel war with Iran

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gives India a 30-day waiver to buy Russian crude as a "stop gap measure".
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
Kianig89 said:
Not only Oil shock, a complete economic shock is coming, like from Pakistan to Gulf meat export is halted, remittances wil be cut also, inflation will further increase in many countries. lets see what happens to $ Dollar rate in coming days.
Click to expand...
This disruption shouldn't last too long. Countries can't take it forever and they'll start doing things like sending navy vessels to escort their ship through the straits. Iran can't fight the whole world.

For me, the issue is more the longer term uncertainty. Most of it is under the fog of war but from what I can see, no oil production facilities have been seriously damaged - including in Iran. There's the odd hit but nothing that would really impair production. The concern is that this is not a war that has a simple resolution and there's likely to be long term ripple effects. Everyone will be on edge and prices are likely to stay relatively high for a year or two. Big importing countries like China, India, Pakistan will be the worst affected. Countries like Russia, Venezuela and the US (shale producers) will benefit.
 
Vikram1989 said:
I think india is already in talks with multiple countries,Usa, Venezuela,opec and Gcc.russia have already informed they are ready to jump in.indian govt has every chance to resume Russian oil supply again.
Click to expand...

India is awaiting orders from the White House .
:sachin


If this continues by April $150 a barrel as it’s expected oil installations will be damaged . Europe has no natural resources so will suffer badly
 
Saudi Arabia has stepped in to secure Pakistan’s fuel supply by routing oil shipments through Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 🇸🇦⛽

If true good news for people of Pakistan, otherwise the fake regime will just leech the public
 
I might be missing something but what do Iran get from blocking the oil route ?

Does it damage USA and Isreal economy ?

All I see is the USA are earning high profit by selling there own brent oil expensive due to shortage of oil supply caused by blockage.

If someone has a better understanding, please correct me.

Thanks.
 
Manager101 said:
I might be missing something but what do Iran get from blocking the oil route ?

Does it damage USA and Isreal economy ?

All I see is the USA are earning high profit by selling there own brent oil expensive due to shortage of oil supply caused by blockage.

If someone has a better understanding, please correct me.

Thanks.
Click to expand...
Quarter of world oil passes through that part controlled by iran.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important shipping routes, and its most vital oil transit choke point.

Bounded to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the corridor – which is only about 50km (31 miles) wide at its entrance and exit, and about 33km wide at its narrowest point – connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea.

The strait is deep enough for the world's biggest crude oil tankers, and is used by the major oil and gas producers in the Middle East – and their customers.

In 2025, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) – that's nearly $600bn (£447bn) worth of energy trade per year.

That oil comes not only from Iran, but also other Gulf states such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.


What would be the impact of closing the strait?​


About 3,000 or so ships sail through the strait each month.

Analysts have warned that the longer there are threats to ships passing through the strait, the higher the price of oil - and the shipping of it - will be.

"It is de facto closed in that no one dares to go through," Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, a provider of energy market insights, told CBS News, the BBC's US partner.

"You can be attacked, and you can't get insurance or it is extremely expensive, so you have to wait until the security situation is better... If oil and gas coming from the strait is cut off, that has significant ramifications for the market," he added.

"While there is no physical blockade, threats from the Iranians, plus drone and missile attacks, mean tankers are not going through the strait."

The global benchmark Brent crude briefly hit $82 (£61) a barrel on Monday, after at least three ships were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend.

That has left about 150 tankers stranded, according to the Reuters news agency.

According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the cost of hiring a supertanker to ship oil from the Middle East to China has almost doubled from last week's price to a record high of more than $400,000 (£298,300).

The closure of the vital shipping lane will also hurt Gulf countries, like Saudi Arabia, whose economies rely heavily on energy exports.

Iran, by comparison, exports about 1.7 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency. Iran exported $67bn (£50bn) worth of oil in the financial year ending March 2025 – its highest oil revenue in the past decade – according to estimates by the Central Bank of Iran.

A blockade of the strait will also hit Asia hard.

In 2022, around 82% of crude oil and condensates (low-density liquid hydrocarbons that typically occur with natural gas) leaving the Strait of Hormuz were bound for Asian countries, according to EIA estimates.

China alone is estimated to buy around 90% of the oil that Iran exports to the global market.

Because China uses that oil to make products it then exports to other countries, higher oil prices could also mean higher prices for consumers around the world.



Alternative routes to offset the blockade:

The persistent threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz has, over the years, prompted oil-exporting countries in the Gulf region to develop alternative export routes.

Saudi Arabia operates a 1,200km-long pipeline capable of transporting up to 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to the EIA.

In the past is has also temporarily repurposed a natural gas pipeline to carry crude oil.

The United Arab Emirates has connected its inland oilfields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman via a pipeline with a daily capacity of at least 1.5 million barrels.

Oil could be diverted along the alternate infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but Reuters reports that would lead to a drop in supply of between 8-10 million barrels per day.
 
finalfantasy7 said:
Quarter of world oil passes through that part controlled by iran.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important shipping routes, and its most vital oil transit choke point.

Bounded to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the corridor – which is only about 50km (31 miles) wide at its entrance and exit, and about 33km wide at its narrowest point – connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea.

The strait is deep enough for the world's biggest crude oil tankers, and is used by the major oil and gas producers in the Middle East – and their customers.

In 2025, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) – that's nearly $600bn (£447bn) worth of energy trade per year.

That oil comes not only from Iran, but also other Gulf states such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.


What would be the impact of closing the strait?​


About 3,000 or so ships sail through the strait each month.

Analysts have warned that the longer there are threats to ships passing through the strait, the higher the price of oil - and the shipping of it - will be.

"It is de facto closed in that no one dares to go through," Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, a provider of energy market insights, told CBS News, the BBC's US partner.

"You can be attacked, and you can't get insurance or it is extremely expensive, so you have to wait until the security situation is better... If oil and gas coming from the strait is cut off, that has significant ramifications for the market," he added.

"While there is no physical blockade, threats from the Iranians, plus drone and missile attacks, mean tankers are not going through the strait."

The global benchmark Brent crude briefly hit $82 (£61) a barrel on Monday, after at least three ships were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend.

That has left about 150 tankers stranded, according to the Reuters news agency.

According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the cost of hiring a supertanker to ship oil from the Middle East to China has almost doubled from last week's price to a record high of more than $400,000 (£298,300).

The closure of the vital shipping lane will also hurt Gulf countries, like Saudi Arabia, whose economies rely heavily on energy exports.

Iran, by comparison, exports about 1.7 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency. Iran exported $67bn (£50bn) worth of oil in the financial year ending March 2025 – its highest oil revenue in the past decade – according to estimates by the Central Bank of Iran.

A blockade of the strait will also hit Asia hard.

In 2022, around 82% of crude oil and condensates (low-density liquid hydrocarbons that typically occur with natural gas) leaving the Strait of Hormuz were bound for Asian countries, according to EIA estimates.

China alone is estimated to buy around 90% of the oil that Iran exports to the global market.

Because China uses that oil to make products it then exports to other countries, higher oil prices could also mean higher prices for consumers around the world.



Alternative routes to offset the blockade:

The persistent threat of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz has, over the years, prompted oil-exporting countries in the Gulf region to develop alternative export routes.

Saudi Arabia operates a 1,200km-long pipeline capable of transporting up to 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to the EIA.

In the past is has also temporarily repurposed a natural gas pipeline to carry crude oil.

The United Arab Emirates has connected its inland oilfields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman via a pipeline with a daily capacity of at least 1.5 million barrels.

Oil could be diverted along the alternate infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but Reuters reports that would lead to a drop in supply of between 8-10 million barrels per day.
Click to expand...

But the question I asked was about USA and Isreal economy and oil supply.

USA is surplus in producing crude oil and they are getting advantage of this by selling their own oil at high price and after acquiring Venezuela oil they are sitting on massive reserves.

Isreal does not import oil from that particular route so not much direct impact on them.

Only class that is affected is the middle class of the world including Asia that will be hugely effected by hyper-inflation.

The upper and elite class won't budge much.
 
Manager101 said:
But the question I asked was about USA and Isreal economy and oil supply.

USA is surplus in producing crude oil and they are getting advantage of this by selling their own oil at high price and after acquiring Venezuela oil they are sitting on massive reserves.

Isreal does not import oil from that particular route so not much direct impact on them.

Only class that is affected is the middle class of the world including Asia that will be hugely effected by hyper-inflation.

The upper and elite class won't budge much.
Click to expand...

Iranian oil is not heavy crude , is the easiest to refine .

The main issue is oil prices are global , set by OPEC . It was $70 a week ago , now currently around $92. American gas prices go up too , meaning everything else does along with it.

Anything $180 plus , the global economy crashes , currency crashes, stocks crashing, huge job losses, civil disorder , crime rising, civil services depleted.

The world runs interlinked , you cannot isolate yourself as a big country at all . IMO this is deliberate, in order to cause civil unrest and weaken the $ , it’s an attack on America too .
 
KingKhanWC said:
Iranian oil is not heavy crude , is the easiest to refine .

The main issue is oil prices are global , set by OPEC . It was $70 a week ago , now currently around $92. American gas prices go up too , meaning everything else does along with it.

Anything $180 plus , the global economy crashes , currency crashes, stocks crashing, huge job losses, civil disorder , crime rising, civil services depleted.

The world runs interlinked , you cannot isolate yourself as a big country at all . IMO this is deliberate, in order to cause civil unrest and weaken the $ , it’s an attack on America too .
Click to expand...
Partially agreed with all things you said except that US dollar actually thrives on rising oil prices as both are directly proportional.
 
PM Shehbaz directs petroleum minister to devise plan for petrol conservation

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday directed provincial governments to immediately seal petrol pumps involved in hoarding fuel, cancel their licenses, and initiate legal proceedings against those creating artificial shortages of petroleum products in the country.

Chairing a high-level meeting on the availability of petroleum products, the prime minister instructed provincial authorities to take strict legal action against hoarders.

During a briefing by the Ministry of Petroleum on the availability of petroleum products amid the evolving regional situation, officials informed the meeting that sufficient stocks were available in the country to meet national demand.

Prime Minister Shehbaz directed the Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik to visit the provinces and, in collaboration with the provincial governments, prepare an action plan and strategy for conserving petroleum products and ensuring their uninterrupted supply to the public.

He further instructed authorities to establish a dashboard to monitor the movement of petroleum products, enabling real-time data sharing with provinces to track transportation and supply.

The meeting was attended by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar, Federal Ministers Jam Kamal Khan, Ahad Khan Cheema, Muhammad Aurangzeb, Attaullah Tarar, Ali Pervaiz Malik, Awais Khan Leghari, Minister of State Bilal Azhar Kayani, Special Assistant Haroon Akhtar, Governor State Bank Jameel Ahmad, chief secretaries of all four provinces, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan, along with senior government officials.


arynews.tv

PM Shehbaz directs petroleum minister to devise plan for petrol conservation

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directed provinces to immediately seal petrol pumps involved in hoarding fuel, cancel their licenses
arynews.tv arynews.tv
 
Petrol prices in Pakistan spiked by Rs. 55/- liter , Petrol now will be Rs. 321/- litre and Diesel at Rs. 335/-
:mush
 
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