Pakistan’s external debt likely to swell to $110b in four years

[cricketjoshila]

I am going to say it again. You need to use a standardized poverty line similar to what world bank is doing. The article posted does not standardize on a poverty line based on USD PPP.

That article did use a poverty line figure in pkr.

 

[Napa]

And world bank has completely different numbers.

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/PAK
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/IND

Now, which is more reputable when it comes to figures like poverty?

Hard to believe the WB data when it has India's poverty falling from 31% to 21% in 2 years!!!???

Anyway, India isn't homogeneous. If you are trying to figure out which country's system is working better, you should be comparing Punjab and Haryana to Pakistan as these states are much more similar to Pakistani Punjab and Sindh rather than UP and Bihar. Indian Punjab and Haryana, along with the Western and Southern states are doing much better.

Also, poverty is only one measure. Another important aspect is whether the country is producing new industries like pharma, software, auto, space, chemicals etc.

 

[jusarrived]

I feel pity for you.

Market cap has SOD ALL to do with market returns.

Accept the reality and move on and stop trying to change the subject by changing the dynamics.

You can brag all you want, but KSE has out performed Nifty/Sensex since 2000! Among other index in Asia. The facts are there. Check the Bloomberg link out, check any website you want. So save your Top 12 ranking - it means nothing!

Iam not disputing the return on investment , what I dont agree is its relevance to the topic here . Stock market boom tells you little or nothing about countries economy

 

[cricketjoshila]

Iam not disputing the return on investment , what I dont agree is its relevance to the topic here . Stock market boom tells you little or nothing about countries economy

Wasnt venezulean stock market the best performing market in terms of returns last year?

 

[Varun]

Iam not disputing the return on investment , what I dont agree is its relevance to the topic here . Stock market boom tells you little or nothing about countries economy

Stock market growth is also a function of a country's inflation. Higher the growth, you have to presume the base of inflation is also higher.

There is a reason why India enjoys higher stock market returns than say, Europe but inflation out here is at 6-7% vs a shallow 2-3% in most parts of Europe.

 

[R3verse Swing]

Iam not disputing the return on investment , what I dont agree is its relevance to the topic here . Stock market boom tells you little or nothing about countries economy

Stock market performance reveals confidence in the said market, which is related to debt, as investors have confidence in the said economy so continue to lend/invest money.

I posted further relevance which was ignored anyway, I posted the external debts of Pakistan and India, and India's debt is higher - which is ignored by Indian Posters who hand on their heart are more concerned about Pakistan's economy.

It's not the size, it's the performance.

 

[Napa]

Iam not disputing the return on investment , what I dont agree is its relevance to the topic here. Stock market boom tells you little or nothing about countries economy

Wasnt venezulean stock market the best performing market in terms of returns last year?

Stock market growth is also a function of a country's inflation. Higher the growth, you have to presume the base of inflation is also higher.

There is a reason why India enjoys higher stock market returns than say, Europe but inflation out here is at 6-7% vs a shallow 2-3% in most parts of Europe.

To put matters in perspective, we can look at the performance of Japan's Nikkei 225 and Pakistan's KSE 100 (Karachi Stock Index).

Nikkei 225: 1990 at 40,000 to 2018 at 21,700, a return of -45.75%
KSE 100: 1991 at 2,000 to 2018 at 46,486, a return of 23,143%

You would however be misled if you believed that Pakistan's economy is better than Japan's economy.

 

[R3verse Swing]

You would however be misled if you believed that Pakistan's economy is better than Japan's economy.

Japan's economy is a basket case.

I will extend some kindness, check out something called "The Widow Trade".

Japan is actually in the throes of gargantuan deflationary pressures due to bleak demographic trends. It's currency is one of the weakest in the world.

Yes Japan exports more than Pakistan, but this does not mean Japan's economy is better.

 

[ahsan17]

To put matters in perspective, we can look at the performance of Japan's Nikkei 225 and Pakistan's KSE 100 (Karachi Stock Index).

Nikkei 225: 1990 at 40,000 to 2018 at 21,700, a return of -45.75%
KSE 100: 1991 at 2,000 to 2018 at 46,486, a return of 23,143%

You would however be misled if you believed that Pakistan's economy is better than Japan's economy.

Economic growth and stock exchange performance is not a direct causal relationship, but there is a correlation.

Japan is a bad example to use. Japan had very low or negative growth through the 90s. That is reflected in the returns. But not only that, it is a developed country. It's not to say that Pakistan's economy is better, but it did have better growth than Japan since 1990.

 

[Napa]

Economic growth and stock exchange performance is not a direct causal relationship, but there is a correlation.

Japan is a bad example to use. Japan had very low or negative growth through the 90s. That is reflected in the returns. But not only that, it is a developed country. It's not to say that Pakistan's economy is better, but it did have better growth than Japan since 1990.

The simple point is that rate of growth of the stock market is also determined by where you started from. If you start from a very low point you can get fantastic rates of growth and conversely if you start from a very high point your growth rate may be poor even though you are doing quite well.

Japan is the best example to illustrate this point because back in the late 1980s, everybody thought Japanese firms would conquer the world.

Though Japan today is a very rich country with a per cap PPP GDP of $42,700 compared to Pakistan's $5,400 and India's $7,200, it still has not lived up to the expectations.

 

[Wonderwoman]

Japan's economy is a basket case.

I will extend some kindness, check out something called "The Widow Trade".

Japan is actually in the throes of gargantuan deflationary pressures due to bleak demographic trends. It's currency is one of the weakest in the world.

Yes Japan exports more than Pakistan, but this does not mean Japan's economy is better.

By what metric does Pakistan come anywhere close to Japanese Economy.

Japan over the last decades has fallen from 90 score to 80, while Pakistan has moved from 10 to 20. By any stretch of imagination 20 is still several times less than 80.

 

[jusarrived]

He actually has a point there. Comparing an entire stock exchange to small cap or large cap stocks is not appropriate. Here we are comparing the stock exchange for a smaller economy to a larger economy, not the stock of a smaller company to a larger company. You can see parallels to TSX v/s S&P 500. Why would you expect TSX to grow faster than S&P 500 despite it being significantly smaller than S&P 500?

My point is you cannot compare stock exchanges of small economy with a bigger economy . TSX and S&P are fairly comparable . Irrespective of how well Indian market does , I wudnt argue we are doing better than US or EU countries based on that. Similarly Pak is still not a mature market , its probably good 10 years behind India ( not in terms of size ) .Indian markets returned 600% between 2005-08 , while the next 10 we have barely gone 100% infact much less in rupee terms , but nothing miraculous happened in those 3 years to justify a 600% spike . even if we start growing at 10%+ we will never see the Indian equities giving 600% in future , cos we have reached a stage where it will take a million factors for even a 10% YoY growth and in spite of all this India is one of the most expensive markets in the world , which means investors are paying a premium even after major reforms like GST/Demonetization which was expected to stall growth for few quarters .


Anyway , it made me curious and I was going through some data of KSE . The big jump from 10K to 30k happened between 2012-2014 , right after Govt allowed blackmoney into stock markets with no questions asked ? The FII inflows are very marginal , in millions and I doubt these are anything else but Pakistani money being re-routed from tax heavens .

 

[jusarrived]

Wasnt venezulean stock market the best performing market in terms of returns last year?

Yeah you always see some random country top the list .

Stock market growth is also a function of a country's inflation. Higher the growth, you have to presume the base of inflation is also higher.

There is a reason why India enjoys higher stock market returns than say, Europe but inflation out here is at 6-7% vs a shallow 2-3% in most parts of Europe.

yeah totally and current higher interest rates will ensure it can be sustained for next couple of decades . A weaker currency , heavy debts , loose regulations are all the risks which comes with EMs , but the rewards are higher too

 

[jusarrived]

Stock market performance reveals confidence in the said market, which is related to debt, as investors have confidence in the said economy so continue to lend/invest money.

I posted further relevance which was ignored anyway, I posted the external debts of Pakistan and India, and India's debt is higher - which is ignored by Indian Posters who hand on their heart are more concerned about Pakistan's economy.

It's not the size, it's the performance.

Can you show me some data that FIIs increasingly invested money in Pakistan ?

exactly its not the size , India's debt to GDP ratio is lower than Pakistan's , Fiscal deficit is 3.5% compared to Paks 4.8% . What performance are you talking about ?

 

[R3verse Swing]

Can you show me some data that FIIs increasingly invested money in Pakistan ?

exactly its not the size , India's debt to GDP ratio is lower than Pakistan's , Fiscal deficit is 3.5% compared to Paks 4.8% . What performance are you talking about ?

No it is not. It is higher. I posted this earlier:

Pakistan has a debt to GDP ratio of 66.5% - https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/indicators

India has a debt to GDP ratio of 69.5% - https://tradingeconomics.com/india/indicators

Performance of the stock market. You talk of market capitalisation etc, but performances wise, KSE wins. Hence it is not the size it's the performance.

 

[R3verse Swing]

Let's compare FDI between Pakistan and India.


PAKISTAN : https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/foreign-direct-investment




INDIA : https://tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-direct-investment



In reality, the difference in FDI doesn't reflect the difference in size of GDP as one would expect.

Pakistan is a great economy for investment and returns.

 

[R3verse Swing]

Forgot to mention.

Based on the above data:

Pakistan average FDI till 2018 : 2807 Million

India average FDI till 2018 : 1247 Million

 

[Wonderwoman]

No it is not. It is higher. I posted this earlier:

Pakistan has a debt to GDP ratio of 66.5% - https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/indicators

India has a debt to GDP ratio of 69.5% - https://tradingeconomics.com/india/indicators

Performance of the stock market. You talk of market capitalisation etc, but performances wise, KSE wins. Hence it is not the size it's the performance.

I did not know that debt to GDP ratio is such a crystal clear indicator of economic health. So you are saying the following countries:

Japan (234%), Singapore(111%) USA (106%), Belgium (105%), Iceland (99%), France, Austria, Canada, UK (all with 90%) debt to GDP ratio have total **** economies!!!

Bravo!!! Next Nobel Laureate in Economics definitely goes to Pakistan!!

PS: Just reply by yes or no? Are you in High school?

 

[R3verse Swing]

I did not know that debt to GDP ratio is such a crystal clear indicator of economic health. So you are saying the following countries:

Japan (234%), Singapore(111%) USA (106%), Belgium (105%), Iceland (99%), France, Austria, Canada, UK (all with 90%) debt to GDP ratio have total **** economies!!!

Bravo!!! Next Nobel Laureate in Economics definitely goes to Pakistan!!

PS: Just reply by yes or no? Are you in High school?

Calm down dear. Your fellow countryman said India has a lower debt to GDP ratio compared to Pakistan. I was proving him wrong. No need to get angry and emotional with the response above, it's the truth.

You guys really cannot accept that Pakistan is ahead of India when it comes to certain economic indicators.

Deal with it.

 

[R3verse Swing]

By what metric does Pakistan come anywhere close to Japanese Economy.

Japan over the last decades has fallen from 90 score to 80, while Pakistan has moved from 10 to 20. By any stretch of imagination 20 is still several times less than 80.

Pakistan economy has a better GDP growth, YoY, compared to Japan, since 90s uptil now.

Your nonsensical score is irrelevant and not a credible economic measure at all.

GDP growth good enough metric?

Come back when you finish school.

:

 

[jusarrived]

No it is not. It is higher. I posted this earlier:

Pakistan has a debt to GDP ratio of 66.5% - https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/indicators

India has a debt to GDP ratio of 69.5% - https://tradingeconomics.com/india/indicators

Performance of the stock market. You talk of market capitalisation etc, but performances wise, KSE wins. Hence it is not the size it's the performance.

you are picking some random numbers and comparing the two countries . Debt alone does not mean trouble , 60% or 80% makes little difference . The important thing is can this be sustained at worst . India is sitting on ~$430 billion reserves and it has been growing , while Pak's seems to be dwindling by the year and if you compare the trade figures , should be able to tell whos better places to pay these debts . Fiscal deficit of 3.5% vs 4.8% , your borrowing is likely to spike up even further .

 

[Wonderwoman]

Pakistan economy has a better GDP growth, YoY, compared to Japan, since 90s uptil now.

Your nonsensical score is irrelevant and not a credible economic measure at all.

GDP growth good enough metric?

Come back when you finish school.

:

I am a teacher so If a student has jumped from score 10 to 20, he is still a failure and a student who is still scoring 90+ is still among the toppers!

 

[Wonderwoman]

Calm down dear. Your fellow countryman said India has a lower debt to GDP ratio compared to Pakistan. I was proving him wrong. No need to get angry and emotional with the response above, it's the truth.

You guys really cannot accept that Pakistan is ahead of India when it comes to certain economic indicators.

Deal with it.

LMAO ) Plz hit me baby one more time

 

[R3verse Swing]

I am a teacher so If a student has jumped from score 10 to 20, he is still a failure and a student who is still scoring 90+ is still among the toppers!

What are you bleating on about? Who said 20 is more than 90? Who? You just made up some economic indicator.

You asked by what metric does Pakistan come anywhere close to Japanese Economy. I stated GDP growth.

Deal with it ,and please do not pretend you are a teacher - you barley qualify as a student as it is.

:

 

[R3verse Swing]

LMAO ) Plz hit me baby one more time

3 posts in the past 2 pages ready prove this.

No need to get emotional.

Get back to class, or your teacher will give you detention!

 

[R3verse Swing]

you are picking some random numbers and comparing the two countries . Debt alone does not mean trouble , 60% or 80% makes little difference . The important thing is can this be sustained at worst . India is sitting on ~$430 billion reserves and it has been growing , while Pak's seems to be dwindling by the year and if you compare the trade figures , should be able to tell whos better places to pay these debts . Fiscal deficit of 3.5% vs 4.8% , your borrowing is likely to spike up even further .

LOL!

RANDOM did you say?

You claimed India has a lower GDP to debt ratio compared to Pakistan, I used official figures to show it is not true.

Now you claim I am picking random numbers?

You bunch of cry babies.

Stop crying, and stop changing the subject. You ask for figure and got them.

Learn to DEAL WITH the TRUTH!

 

[Wonderwoman]

What are you bleating on about? Who said 20 is more than 90? Who? You just made up some economic indicator.

You asked by what metric does Pakistan come anywhere close to Japanese Economy. I stated GDP growth.

Deal with it ,and please do not pretend you are a teacher - you barley qualify as a student as it is.

:

)

 

[Wonderwoman]

3 posts in the past 2 pages ready prove this.

No need to get emotional.

Get back to class, or your teacher will give you detention!

I am waiting for the hit, baby! Just one more hit plz!

 

[R3verse Swing]

I've how when Indians get proven wrong, they turn to the *oh but but but this that* mode.

Guy wanted GDP to debt ratio, gets them, India is higher than Pakistan, proves him wrong, now harps on about reserves being higher blah blah blah just to appease his disappointment and insecurity.

Unreal but fun nonetheless!

 

[zn426]

This argument is apples to oranges because India and Japan have better developed infrastructure and different economic priorities compared with Pakistan. Pakistan is a youth-dominated economy that still isn't performing on the vital basic statistics (education, entrepreneurship, etc.) that would make it a strong economic power. India isn't there yet, but they are steadily getting there. With India it's a matter of when, not if. Japan...having been there multiple times I must agree with the other posters in this thread-they are highly educated, well-developed economically, but the barriers to further growth are high because of the aging population, a Japanese culture that overrelies on years of service for promotions (rather than pure merit), and the tax rates are far too high. Japan would do well to lower regulations and barriers to new economic opportunity through the education system-otherwise their youth will never produce at the level that they can. Likewise, Pakistan needs to do more to encourage youth entrepreneurship.
I wouldn't even consider the debt to GDP ratio a major issue for India here. They'll pay it off eventually, given economic growth. I don't see Pakistan doing that without major economic reforms and a squashing of the corruption prevalent at every level of government.

 

[jusarrived]

Forgot to mention.

Based on the above data:

Pakistan average FDI till 2018 : 2807 Million

India average FDI till 2018 : 1247 Million

I dont think you realize the data you are comparing is monthly average for India and Yearly average for Pakistan . India's FDI is close to 40 billion now

Why are you hell bent on embarrassing yourself ?

 

[R3verse Swing]

I dont think you realize the data you are comparing is monthly average for India and Yearly average for Pakistan . India's FDI is close to 40 billion now

Why are you hell bent on embarrassing yourself ?

Wrong. Both are monthly. READ the graphs and text properly.

 

[jusarrived]

Wrong. Both are monthly. READ the graphs and text properly.

lol seriously ?

I dont have to READ again to tell you there is no way Pak receives double of India in FDIs .

 

[R3verse Swing]

lol seriously ?

I dont have to READ again to tell you there is no way Pak receives double of India in FDIs .

Like you told me India's debt to GDP ratio was lower than Pakistans? Lol. OK. Don't read.

 

[Slog]

I dont think you realize the data you are comparing is monthly average for India and Yearly average for Pakistan . India's FDI is close to 40 billion now

Why are you hell bent on embarrassing yourself ?

Wrong. Both are monthly. READ the graphs and text properly.

lol seriously ?

I dont have to READ again to tell you there is no way Pak receives double of India in FDIs .

I haven't followed the thread in detail but surely its not possible that Pakistan's FDI is remotely comparable to India considering the size of the countries... India just has too many people

 

[cricketjoshila]

lol seriously ?

I dont have to READ again to tell you there is no way Pak receives double of India in FDIs .

The guy is a charlatan. See what he did here.

I will give you the links.

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-direct-investment


https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/foreign-direct-investment


See the years being compared. He thinks doing this will change the actual situation.

One country sits on forex reserves of 400bn another at less than 15bn.

 

[R3verse Swing]

I haven't followed the thread in detail but surely its not possible that Pakistan's FDI is remotely comparable to India considering the size of the countries... India just has too many people

India's average FDI calculation in the graph starts from 1995 till 2018, Pakistan from 2010, hence a lower average for India. Unless Indians are claiming FDI was $40 Billion from 1995. If India's FDI was calculated from 2010 till now, it would be higher than Pakistan's.

This small but pertinent point was not picked up by our resident wannabe economists.

 

[jusarrived]

Like you told me India's debt to GDP ratio was lower than Pakistans? Lol. OK. Don't read.

Just scroll up , see the Graphs you pasted in excitement for Pak . it goes 2010,2011..2018 ( yearly bars ) and see Indias ..the bars are from Apr 2017 to Jan 2018 , monthly .

As for GDP-Debt ratio 69 vs 67 , having seen your posts I just assumed you would have just compared total debt of both countries and you have conveniently ignored other factors like Fiscal deficit , reserves , trade etc . Care to comment on that ?

 

[jusarrived]

The guy is a charlatan. See what he did here.

I will give you the links.

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-direct-investment


https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/foreign-direct-investment


See the years being compared. He thinks doing this will change the actual situation.

One country sits on forex reserves of 400bn another at less than 15bn.

yeah I noticed .

India has its issues and we have been doing our best with a lot of reforms , balancing between fiscal prudence and growth , but is Pakistan has much bigger problems than us clearly . No one will debate that . They have huge debts just like us , but if there is a crisis tomorrow India has enough to pay most of the debts and floating for a year are more , I doubt Pak can though . The forex reserves have been going down , trade deficit is massive , fiscal deficit is at 4.9% I dont think its a very pretty picture .

 

[jusarrived]

India's average FDI calculation in the graph starts from 1995 till 2018, Pakistan from 2010, hence a lower average for India. Unless Indians are claiming FDI was $40 Billion from 1995. If India's FDI was calculated from 2010 till now, it would be higher than Pakistan's.

This small but pertinent point was not picked up by our resident wannabe economists.

why Calculate from 1995 ? Try from 1947 ..put zeros for these years for India and for Pak just take 2017 . Now you can with this you can claim Average FDI into Pak is 10 times more than India's .

 

[Wonderwoman]

why Calculate from 1995 ? Try from 1947 ..put zeros for these years for India and for Pak just take 2017 . Now you can with this you can claim Average FDI into Pak is 10 times more than India's .

Accumulated FDI in India over all those years is nearly 10 times that of Pakistan. India'a accumulated FDI is US$ 297 billion while Pakistan's is US$ 31 billion. so far. I don't know from where [MENTION=146465]R3verse Swing[/MENTION] is dreaming up his stats.

 

[Wonderwoman]

Let's compare FDI between Pakistan and India.


PAKISTAN : https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/foreign-direct-investment

View attachment 80753


INDIA : https://tradingeconomics.com/india/foreign-direct-investment

View attachment 80754

In reality, the difference in FDI doesn't reflect the difference in size of GDP as one would expect.

Pakistan is a great economy for investment and returns.

HAHA... As per your graphs a monthly FDI in India is being compared to an yearly investment in Pakistan!!

 

[R3verse Swing]

Pakistan now in the top 10 world economies based on GDP YoY growth.

Mashallah

As Pakistan's political troubles subside and are resolved, CPEC kicking in, Pakistan will come out tops - this much is guaranteed - Pakistan is the best kept economic secret in Asia. Though Bangladesh topping India? Wow! It's not the size, it is the performance after all!



BRILLIANT!

 

[jusarrived]

Pakistan now in the top 10 world economies based on GDP YoY growth.

Mashallah

As Pakistan's political troubles subside and are resolved, CPEC kicking in, Pakistan will come out tops - this much is guaranteed - Pakistan is the best kept economic secret in Asia. Though Bangladesh topping India? Wow! It's not the size, it is the performance after all!

View attachment 80773

BRILLIANT!

Just when I was thinking finally decent post . The bolded part was unnecessary . Bangla should be compared with Pakistan , may be see what they are doing right ?

 

[English August]

I don't know from where [MENTION=146465]R3verse Swing[/MENTION] is dreaming up his stats.

From where? You don't want to know that!

 

[Wonderwoman]

Pakistan now in the top 10 world economies based on GDP YoY growth.

Mashallah

As Pakistan's political troubles subside and are resolved, CPEC kicking in, Pakistan will come out tops - this much is guaranteed - Pakistan is the best kept economic secret in Asia. Though Bangladesh topping India? Wow! It's not the size, it is the performance after all!

View attachment 80773

BRILLIANT!

Again dreaming up stats while missing out tons of countries!! Bub, you should go back to school!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate

Pakistan lies at number 32 . ( Growth rate without consideration to size of economy is a moronic list. Not that you can process that with the deficiency of neurons.)

 

[jusarrived]

Again dreaming up stats while missing out tons of countries!! Bub, you should go back to school!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate

Pakistan lies at number 32 . ( Growth rate without consideration to size of economy is a moronic list. Not that you can process that with the deficiency of neurons.)

Did he make that up too? Haha why?
First you have to question, the importance of such rankings.. I mean a developed country growing at 4 percent is more impressive than 7 percent for a developing country. So you cannot take these rankings seriously .

 

[Mian]

Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio to hit 15-year high

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1689123/2-pakistans-debt-gdp-ratio-hit-15-year-high/

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s public debt in terms of total size of the economy is estimated to jump to a 15-year high of 70.1% by the end of PML-N government’s tenure, exposing the country to many risks and giving less room for human development spending.

 

[English August]

Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio to hit 15-year high

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1689123/2-pakistans-debt-gdp-ratio-hit-15-year-high/

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s public debt in terms of total size of the economy is estimated to jump to a 15-year high of 70.1% by the end of PML-N government’s tenure, exposing the country to many risks and giving less room for human development spending.

But as Reverse Swing will tell you, as long as KSE is outperforming all other Asian markets, it's all good.

 

[Romali_rotti]

But as Reverse Swing will tell you, as long as KSE is outperforming all other Asian markets, it's all good.

Only way Pakistan's debt will decrease is if Brit Pakistanis like Namak move back down to Pakistan rather than behind their comfortable homes of UK

 

[Napa]

Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio to hit 15-year high

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1689123/2-pakistans-debt-gdp-ratio-hit-15-year-high/

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s public debt in terms of total size of the economy is estimated to jump to a 15-year high of 70.1% by the end of PML-N government’s tenure, exposing the country to many risks and giving less room for human development spending.

But as Reverse Swing will tell you, as long as KSE is outperforming all other Asian markets, it's all good.

Debt-to-GDP is only part of the story. The US, Japan etc. also have very high debt to GDP ratios.

However, the US has the largest GDP, and it can print whatever amount of Treasuries (debt) it wishes and foreigners will buy. Japan has a $3T forex reserves.

The ability to repay is the the important point, and Pakistan's lack of forex reserves and its economy not producing enough good that foreigners wish to buy does not bode well for the future.

 

[English August]

Debt-to-GDP is only part of the story. The US, Japan etc. also have very high debt to GDP ratios.

However, the US has the largest GDP, and it can print whatever amount of Treasuries (debt) it wishes and foreigners will buy. Japan has a $3T forex reserves.

The ability to repay is the the important point, and Pakistan's lack of forex reserves and its economy not producing enough good that foreigners wish to buy does not bode well for the future.

I understand. I was just being sarcastic.

 

[Gubol123]

Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio to hit 15-year high

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1689123/2-pakistans-debt-gdp-ratio-hit-15-year-high/

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s public debt in terms of total size of the economy is estimated to jump to a 15-year high of 70.1% by the end of PML-N government’s tenure, exposing the country to many risks and giving less room for human development spending.

from web comment on the same topic

A few quick observations:

1) In Dec 2017, "Pubic Debt" (Debt of govt.) was already 63.5% of GDP while "Total Debt and Liabilities" (Public debt + debt of enterprises which are guaranteed by the govt. like PIA, PR, PSM etc.) was 74.7% of GDP. Thus in June 2018 if "Pubic Debt" will be 70.1% of the GDP then "Total Debt and Liabilities" will be 81.3% of the GDP.

2) The debt numbers are high inspite of the mathematical jugglery of Ishaq Dhar who changed the definition of debt in Pakistan via the FRDLA amendment thus concealing debt of around 2 trillion or 5.7% of GDP. If we go by international and IMF definition of debt then in June 2018 "Pubic Debt" will be 75.8% of the GDP thus "Total Debt and Liabilities" will be 87% of the GDP.

All data from SBP website:
http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Summary.pdf

 

[Mian]

Beat this! maybe she thinks Imran was PM and PTI was ruling for 5 years instead of his dad Nawaz and PMLN?

 

[S_haq]

Beat this! maybe she thinks Imran was PM and PTI was ruling for 5 years instead of his dad Nawaz and PMLN?

Is this a photoshop? seriously can't be this stupid and shameless

 

[Mian]

Pakistan’s external debt soars to record $91.8b the figure may touch $100 billion very soon

Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities have soared to a record $91.8 billion, showing an increase of over 50% or nearly $31 billion in the past four years and nine months, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has reported.

The external debt and liabilities of $91.8 billion as of March-end suggest that the figure may touch $100 billion very soon as the country faces grave challenges in meeting growing external financing requirements. Pakistan is scheduled to make some bullet debt and interest payments in the last quarter (April-June) of the current fiscal year, according to sources in the finance ministry.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1711866/2-pakistans-external-debt-soars-record-91-8b/

 

[Mian]

Aik tweet patwaaryon ke apne chaheete ki teraf se!
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The PMLN claims that they have set the economy on the right path proven false. Repeated rupee devalutions, huge current account deficit, reserves to only cover two months of imports... will have to go to IMF or get money from China etc. These aren’t signs of an economy on track.</p>— Ali Moeen Nawazish (@am_nawazish) <a href="https://twitter.com/am_nawazish/status/1006249886608654336?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 11, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Mian]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">3 headlines from todays newspaper alone: current account deficit hits record $16bn in 11 months, moody downgrades Pak rating outlook to negative and foreign direct investment declines vs last year....this about sums up what pml n govt in 5 years has done to the economy!</p>— Asad Umar (@Asad_Umar) <a href="https://twitter.com/Asad_Umar/status/1009647166942572545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 21, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Itachi]

Economy noob here. How important is this rating in terms of investment?

 

[shortbread]

Economy noob here. How important is this rating in terms of investment?

Massive especially in FDI terms especially for emerging economies.

The investment world runs on two major factors, confidence and cost of borrowing.

Agency ratings are used by lenders when deciding on rates. So say you want to borrow from a foreign institution to expand domestically or abroad, they gauge the risk based on these ratings (one of the criteria). If the borrower is from a high risk economy then the interest rate goes up. Again that's if they agree to lend you the money.

This then increases the cost of your business having to service these loans.

For foreign institutional investors they simply remove companies from one portfolio (say a safer emerging market one) to a higher risk portfolio that is unlikely to be very attractive. Fitch, Moodys, S&P are very influential when big money is involved.

Is this an immediate problem, I do not think so.

The biggest challenges to the economy is as follows (in my opinion):

- Ensuring remittances from abroad are steady,
- Increasing oil prices and a devalued rupee do not go hand in hand such things rapidly increase inflationary pressure,
- Somehow control imports that are climbing year on year leading to a widening trade deficit,
- Boost the struggling/declining textile industry the life blood of Pakistan's exports,
- Helping cotton farmers overcome electricity and water issues.
- Protect domestic industry from cheaper Chinese imports. Offering zero duty on almost 6,000 tariff lines out of the total 7,000 that might jeopardise many major industries in Pakistan as per the recent Pak-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This can cause irreversible damage to the local economy in the medium to long term. Hopefully the next government can nip this in the bud.

 

[Buffet]

Economy noob here. How important is this rating in terms of investment?

It's very important to attract big money from outside.

 

[Mian]

• Pakistan’s Foreign Debt is $93 billion
• Internal Debt Rs.27 Trillion
• Circular Debt has crossed Rs1,000 Billion
• PKR value is Rs. 124/Dollar
• Petrol is Rs.100/Ltr
• Diesel Rs.120/Ltr
• Water Crisis

This is how PML-N & PPP have ruined Pakistan’s economy!

 

[Bewal Express]

• Pakistan’s Foreign Debt is $93 billion
• Internal Debt Rs.27 Trillion
• Circular Debt has crossed Rs1,000 Billion
• PKR value is Rs. 124/Dollar
• Petrol is Rs.100/Ltr
• Diesel Rs.120/Ltr
• Water Crisis

This is how PML-N & PPP have ruined Pakistan’s economy!

What a terrible legacy of corruption And incompetence.

 

[Manager101]

• Pakistan’s Foreign Debt is $93 billion
• Internal Debt Rs.27 Trillion
• Circular Debt has crossed Rs1,000 Billion
• PKR value is Rs. 124/Dollar
• Petrol is Rs.100/Ltr
• Diesel Rs.120/Ltr
• Water Crisis

This is how PML-N & PPP have ruined Pakistan’s economy!

If people continue electing these pathetic, selfish, massively corrupt monarchs then expect Pakistan Debt to rise by 200%.

 

[Bewal Express]

If people continue electing these pathetic, selfish, massively corrupt monarchs then expect Pakistan Debt to rise by 200%.

[MENTION=138980]TalentSpotterPk[/MENTION] why dont you join this debate.

 

[TalentSpotterPk]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We are taking billions of loans & who pays it back ? You ! you are being looted , Sindh is being looted. <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ImranKhanPTI</a> <a href="https://t.co/P3iPjIFtJk">pic.twitter.com/P3iPjIFtJk</a></p>— Tehreek-e-Insaf (@InsafPK) <a href="https://twitter.com/InsafPK/status/855841558104616965?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 22, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



2013 onwards,


Hypocrite, Lier and A* stooge Imran Khan.


When Mohammad Malick asked Imran Khan whether He would go to IMF if PTI forms federal government ? Whether PTI leg government will take Loans ?

Watch what he said (youtube,twitter,facebook)


And in Jalsaas he fools general Public.



This A* stooge lead PTI's first ever provincial government in KPK


took record loans (apx 99.5 billions) in their 5 years of tenure just for 3 projects and interestingly these projects have not yet completed.

[MENTION=101697]LegendInzi[/MENTION] [MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142317]Loralai[/MENTION] [MENTION=2071]saadibaba[/MENTION]



This is why Jawad Ahmed is spot on.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Imran Khan has totally lost it.He has intellectually degenerated & morally deteriorated in the last few years so rapidly that now I doubt that he has any chance of a come back.Just to become PM,he’s now ready to go to any length of lying, deceit,hypocrisy & religious exploitation</p>— Jawad Ahmad (@jawadahmadone) <a href="https://twitter.com/jawadahmadone/status/1012635831180414976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Bewal Express]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We are taking billions of loans & who pays it back ? You ! you are being looted , Sindh is being looted. <a href="https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ImranKhanPTI</a> <a href="https://t.co/P3iPjIFtJk">pic.twitter.com/P3iPjIFtJk</a></p>— Tehreek-e-Insaf (@InsafPK) <a href="https://twitter.com/InsafPK/status/855841558104616965?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 22, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



2013 onwards,


Hypocrite, Lier and A* stooge Imran Khan.


When Mohammad Malick asked Imran Khan whether He would go to IMF if PTI forms federal government ? Whether PTI leg government will take Loans ?

Watch what he said (youtube,twitter,facebook)


And in Jalsaas he fools general Public.



This A* stooge lead PTI's first ever provincial government in KPK


took record loans (apx 99.5 billions) in their 5 years of tenure just for 3 projects and interestingly these projects have not yet completed.


[MENTION=101697]LegendInzi[/MENTION] [MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] [MENTION=142317]Loralai[/MENTION] [MENTION=2071]saadibaba[/MENTION]



This is why Jawad Ahmed is spot on.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Imran Khan has totally lost it.He has intellectually degenerated & morally deteriorated in the last few years so rapidly that now I doubt that he has any chance of a come back.Just to become PM,he’s now ready to go to any length of lying, deceit,hypocrisy & religious exploitation</p>— Jawad Ahmad (@jawadahmadone) <a href="https://twitter.com/jawadahmadone/status/1012635831180414976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So its IK fault that PK may have to go the IMF. The debt was $57bn in 2013 and heading to an unservicable $91bn. Where did the money go? Yes London, Dubai, Luxembourg and Switzerland. The only hypocrite on this forum is you. You have a ex PM on the run, his Finance Minister on the run, his daughter on the run and IK is the bad guy.

 

[Bewal Express]

Btw 99.5bn makes an average of 200mn a year on audited projects. Why do the Nooras keep burning down all the paperwork related to the Lahore metro? All these mysterious fires, oh no its not the ISI again is it? You know the one that buys these properties in London.

 

[Napa]

• Pakistan’s Foreign Debt is $93 billion
• Internal Debt Rs.27 Trillion
• Circular Debt has crossed Rs1,000 Billion
• PKR value is Rs. 124/Dollar
• Petrol is Rs.100/Ltr
• Diesel Rs.120/Ltr
• Water Crisis

This is how PML-N & PPP have ruined Pakistan’s economy!

You are giving a free pass to the Army that has ruled Pakistan for a longer period than any of these parties, and still wields decisive influence on the economy.

 

[Bewal Express]

@ TalentspotterPk
As you have finally gathered some courage to debate and stopped running
Explain these properties. When will the Sharifs sue the DM? What is the "appropriate forum" they are waiting for? They are not waiting for one of your long winded boreathons so that we forget.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.da...hed-millions-Londons-swankiest-addresses.html

 

[Sidilicious]

What are the implications of having a high Debt to GDP ratio?

 

[Bewal Express]

What are the implications of having a high Debt to GDP ratio?

The basic thing about borrowing is that you borrow for capital expenditure, this generates extra growth which leads to higher tax revenues. Our borrowing has been wasted by the rulers living it large, no great improvement has taken place in tax collections and hence we have to finance the original borrowing with more short borrowing. In 2008 it was $37bn, today its close to $91bn. Where did all that money go? Yes in the pockets of AZ and coterie of crooks and NS and his coterie of crooks.

 

[Mian]

You are giving a free pass to the Army that has ruled Pakistan for a longer period than any of these parties, and still wields decisive influence on the economy.

FYI Pakistan situation was far better economically in all the 3 dictatorships also checked economy and numbers when Mush left in 2008 and than check the numbers of next 10 years specially debt.

 

[Napa]

FYI Pakistan situation was far better economically in all the 3 dictatorships also checked economy and numbers when Mush left in 2008 and than check the numbers of next 10 years specially debt.

Economies never do better with military dictatorships! The simple reason is that Army officers do not know how to run firms, and their emphasis is to obey orders that come down from the top. As long as the orders are followed, the officer is good. But that is not how capitalism works. In history no country has developed economically without giving freedom to the private sector.

What modern industries did Pakistan develop during the 3 dictatorships?

 

[jusarrived]

FYI Pakistan situation was far better economically in all the 3 dictatorships also checked economy and numbers when Mush left in 2008 and than check the numbers of next 10 years specially debt.

I dont know much about Pak politics , but would not just go by these numbers . 5-6 years is not enough to make a difference for any Govt and a lot of times the GDP figures etc good/bad are result of previous govts efforts or lack of it .

 

[Mian]

I dont know much about Pak politics , but would not just go by these numbers . 5-6 years is not enough to make a difference for any Govt and a lot of times the GDP figures etc good/bad are result of previous govts efforts or lack of it .

2008 to 2013 PPP government was corrupt to the core but they also faced sky high oil prices and global crises still they managed to do better than this government of PMLN from 2013 to 2018 with record high imports and record low exports/services and PMLn govt was fortunate enough to govern in an era of low oil prices (Pakistan biggest import bill is always Oil) and $50 billion CPEC investment of China still we are looking at a really high external and internal debt, and massive trade deficit.

 

[Mian]

Economies never do better with military dictatorships! The simple reason is that Army officers do not know how to run firms, and their emphasis is to obey orders that come down from the top. As long as the orders are followed, the officer is good. But that is not how capitalism works. In history no country has developed economically without giving freedom to the private sector.

What modern industries did Pakistan develop during the 3 dictatorships?

I am not defending military dictatorships i am just saying some how military dictatorships with all their faults delivered better than our democratic governments. To give you an example out of many others Pakistan is looking at a massive Water and Power crisis but these democratic leaders can't even sit on a table and agree on Dams that is the need of this hour. All our big dams with cheap hydropower were made during dictatorships.

 

[WebGuru]

[MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] many detailed reports in this thread by leading economists they already predicted this chaos a long time ago in the middle of PMLN govt they knew where we will stand when the repayments of loans begins after a few years but PMLN govt was taking loans from east and west like there is no tomorrow.

 

[Bewal Express]

[MENTION=131701]Mamoon[/MENTION] [MENTION=1269]Bewal Express[/MENTION] many detailed reports in this thread by leading economists they already predicted this chaos a long time ago in the middle of PMLN govt they knew where we will stand when the repayments of loans begins after a few years but PMLN govt was taking loans from east and west like there is no tomorrow.

Bro all the Nooras knew the disastrous situation they were leaving behind but this is politics and they will use it for every ounce of advantage to get NS,SS, Maryam and Hamza an NRO. On the other hand the chances of that happening gets closer to zero every day , especially after the terrible performance of the SS progeny on Geo this week.

 

[WebGuru]

Bro all the Nooras knew the disastrous situation they were leaving behind but this is politics and they will use it for every ounce of advantage to get NS,SS, Maryam and Hamza an NRO. On the other hand the chances of that happening gets closer to zero every day , especially after the terrible performance of the SS progeny on Geo this week.

Yea but the good thing is these reports from the past are already there so any sane person will find it hard to deny them they were all released long before before PTI arrived in Islamabad.