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Pakistan’s external debt likely to swell to $110b in four years

Isn't the economy doing better than it was during the previous government?
 
Rafa said:
Isn't the economy doing better than it was during the previous government?
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with huge loans to return. how long we are going to keep going for these loans that help IMF, World Bank, Asian Bank etc to dictate our govt on how to implement more taxes so that we can return the interest on those loads.
 
Is that really an achievement? Let's face it, even a pile of dog sh*** would have done better than the PPP.
 
Strike Rate said:
China is now thinking about investing directly in Pakistan instead of giving these corrupt clowns the money that only goes into their own pockets.
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They have been doing that for a while now. You want a bridge, they'll build it for you, with their own construction workers and sometimes prisoners.
 
Strike Rate said:
with huge loans to return. how long we are going to keep going for these loans that help IMF, World Bank, Asian Bank etc to dictate our govt on how to implement more taxes so that we can return the interest on those loads.
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IMF has assassinated couple Latin American presidents because they refused to take large loans. They offer you loan that you can't pay back and then slowly starts influencing you. Google "Economic Hitman". Weirdly Sadam Hussain too rejected loans. But now a days you have Japan and China who offer you loans with cheaper interests.
 
Thivagar said:
They have been doing that for a while now. You want a bridge, they'll build it for you, with their own construction workers and sometimes prisoners.
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I know that's also not a good way because of too much involvement but it's necessary for countries with corrupt leaders otherwise most of that money will go right into their pockets just like always and contracts will be given to those unknown companies run by their own family.
 
Thivagar said:
IMF has assassinated couple Latin American presidents because they refused to take large loans. They offer you loan that you can't pay back and then slowly starts influencing you. Google "Economic Hitman". Weirdly Sadam Hussain too rejected loans. But now a days you have Japan and China who offer you loans with cheaper interests.
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Yea the biggest issue with them is they don't want their loan back but instead they want influence and that is a bonus with that huge interest rate.
 
Sooner or later the proverbial **** will hit the fan. The PK people will realise that crooked politicians have bribed them with borrowed money and they will have to pick up up the tab. Off course the pain will be thoroughly deserved but it won't give the likes of me any pleasure in saying so.
 
Strike Rate said:
I know that's also not a good way because of too much involvement but it's necessary for countries with corrupt leaders otherwise most of that money will go right into their pockets just like always and contracts will be given to those unknown companies run by their own family.
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Started with Africa when these African leaders started pocketing their nations' wealth and live in glass mansions with endangered whales in their living room aquarium and etc. I think this is better as they get to the point. Has been happening in SL for the last 5-6 years.
 
Bewal Express said:
Sooner or later the proverbial **** will hit the fan. The PK people will realise that crooked politicians have bribed them with borrowed money and they will have to pick up up the tab. Off course the pain will be thoroughly deserved but it won't give the likes of me any pleasure in saying so.
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You can replace PK with US in your prediction, and it will still be very true. And that's when the US GDP is hardly growing.
 
Pakistan’s external debt set to grow to whopping $90 Billion

So for 100 Billion dollor some one can buy Pakistan....be careful guys Young Indian is coming.....
 
dandapinda said:
Try to understand this is not about numbers.

US economy is coupled with world economy,so we cannot afford it to fail.Other hand nobody cares/notices if Pakistan goes under,hope you understand now.
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Do you realize the US federal debt is one of the biggest non-terrorism items up for campaigning in the 2016 US elections?

Here's some more recommended reading:
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/04/08-federal-debt-worse-than-you-think-haskins

Regardless, you can ignore my comment if this is something you have never heard of. Any discussion of it here from scratch will likely derail the thread.
 
Ironcat said:
Do you realize the US federal debt is one of the biggest non-terrorism items up for campaigning in the 2016 US elections?

Here's some more recommended reading:
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/04/08-federal-debt-worse-than-you-think-haskins

Regardless, you can ignore my comment if this is something you have never heard of. Any discussion of it here from scratch will likely derail the thread.
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Every one knows about this,but I am talking about reality.I guess biggest buyers of US debt is China.If US defaults it will create ripple effect throughout world which nobody wants right now.

Now imagine if Pakistan defaults,do you think any effect on World economy??
 
If I'm not mistaken our current total debt stands at around $65 billion and it is forecasted to grow to $90 billion in the next 4 years.

Let's put things into context though. Our debt has been above $60 billion since 2010. There has a massive increase in debt from 2006 to 2011. In 2006 our total external debt was around $35 Billion and within these 5 years the total external debt almost doubled.

During the PML-N regime the total external debt has been reduced by almost $2 Billion.

Now, as far as the current level of debt is concerned, 85% is government debt whereas the remaining is private sector related. Luckily, most of this debt is long term. Short term debt has to be rolled over every year (if unpaid) which means that it is re-priced at higher interest rates further increasing the debt servicing burden.

Out of the $55 billion government debt about $2 billion is related to Public Sector Enterprises. The government needs to ensure that loss-making PSE's are restructured. The government should focus on the energy sector and try to curtail on the targeted subsidies. The government should deregulate the energy sector of Pakistan which may also help with the circular debt problem. Moreover, Privatization would also curb corruption within the system.

The government should also diversify Pakistan’s energy mix in order to decrease reliance on imported fuel and increase self-sufficiency in indigenous resources, such as coal, wind, biomass, solar, and hydroelectricity. This is a step that the PML-N government has taken with plans to develop the Thar Coal project.

Moreover, Pakistan is now involved in some heavy infrastructure projects which will help drive the economy if these projects materialize. CPEC being the biggest one with a potential investment of $45.6 billion. CPEC would also help create further trade opportunities within the region.

Pakistan is also in the process of finalizing the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India (TAPI) gas pipeline and CASA 1000. Furthermore, trade relations between India and Pakistan have been improving recently despite the political issues between the two. We can say that Pakistan is headed in the right direction in terms of strengthening relations with its regional partners and optimizing its regional importance. It is however essential that these and other proposed projects materialize as these will also result in resolving the ongoing energy crisis which will also help local manufacturing.

In conclusion, a lot is being done and steps have been taken in the right direction. We must wait and see how these things materialize.
 
dandapinda said:
Every one knows about this,but I am talking about reality.I guess biggest buyers of US debt is China.If US defaults it will create ripple effect throughout world which nobody wants right now.

Now imagine if Pakistan defaults,do you think any effect on World economy??
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If the US defaults, the credit losses will be concentrated in the hands of, say, China. If China does not want the US to default, it has three options:

(1) It can throw good money after bad money - i.e. continue to lend to the US and the US turns around and repays the interest on the old debt with the new debt.

(2) It can restructure the debt - i.e. extend the maturities, re-negotiate the interest payments, etc.

(3) It can take it on the chin, write off the debt, and move on.

Suppose your argument about (3) is true. That China won't go after an outright US default.

Let's try (1) first. Where do you think the Chinese will forever come up with the funds for the new US loans? Their imports are shrinking, their exports are shrinking, and there is tremendous pressure on the yuan. Last quarter, their forex reserves fell by a record $93BN:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-a...by-93-9-billion-as-pboc-intervenes-1441614856

They have a huge drain on their funds for a long time to come.

OK. Let's try (2) then. The moment you restructure your debt, you take a haircut. Your assets (loans to the US) are worth much less now because the money you were going to receive is (A) partly not going to be received at all and (B) not going to be received until much later. Either way, your asset value is less, you have losses on your books, and your banks are all seeing coming what the US banks were slammed with in 2008.

So, it doesn't seem to me that the Chinese will have any joy to take away from granting much breathing space to the US.

Let's try one more. Number (4). The Chinese use their leverage (pardon the pun) to win concessions from the US - on trade, on investment, on defense, on labour, on climate change, or whatever - in return for writing off their debt. Well, welcome to the economic life of Pakistan.

The US federal debt is a serious issue no matter how you cut it. The OP quoted an article from Dr Hafeez Pasha, an economist; I gave you a link from the Brookings Institute, an institution filled with economists.
 
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Pakistan’s external debt set to grow to whopping $90 Billion

^ China is just example,you can ask same economists they will say you US failing will cause big problems while Pakistan failings doesn't even matter in world level.

I know US have biggest debt issues,but point is we cannot compare Pak & US just based on numbers....there is 0 correlation of economy between these 2 countries.
 
dandapinda said:
^ China is just example,you can ask same economists they will say you US failing will cause big problems while Pakistan failings doesn't even matter in world level.

I know US have biggest debt issues,but point is we cannot compare Pak & US just based on numbers....there is 0 correlation of economy between these 2 countries.
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I would suggest you stop commenting on issues which are beyond your understanding. For crying out loud, you think Islamabad and Lahore are states and not cities. Really shows what you know.
 
Pakistan’s external debt set to grow to whopping $90 Billion

uberkoen said:
I would suggest you stop commenting on issues which are beyond your understanding. For crying out loud, you think Islamabad and Lahore are states and not cities. Really shows what you know.
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You are yet to clarify that issue.

Any way can you answer in one line which economy world can offer to fail? US or Pakistan??
 
dandapinda said:
You are yet to clarify that issue.

Any way can answer in one line which economy world can offer to fail? US or Pakistan??
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There is no issue to clarify. Please understand the difference between a state, an administrative state and a city. Once you learn this we can continue talking.

Your lack of knowledge is appalling. Have you studied basic economics or finance? Do you have the slightest clue as to what you're on about. The following statement just shows how stupid you are and your lack of understanding on these issues

dandapinda said:
So for 100 Billion dollor some one can buy Pakistan....be careful guys Young Indian is coming.....
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Please stop commenting on things you have no idea about.
 
Pakistan’s external debt set to grow to whopping $90 Billion

uberkoen said:
There is no issue to clarify. Please understand the difference between a state, an administrative state and a city. Once you learn this we can continue talking.

Your lack of knowledge is appalling. Have you studied basic economics or finance? Do you have the slightest clue as to what you're on about. The following statement just shows how stupid you are and your lack of understanding on these
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Your going around circles can't fool me ,if you know the answer give it or just move on,I don't give a damn about your whining.

Question is simple - Which economy world can afford to fail? Pakistan or US??


That Young Indian comment,you have no idea it's for Indian posters especially who know about National herald case.
 
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dandapinda said:
^ China is just example,you can ask same economists they will say you US failing will cause big problems while Pakistan failings doesn't even matter in world level.

I know US have biggest debt issues,but point is we cannot compare Pak & US just based on numbers....there is 0 correlation of economy between these 2 countries.
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When you have lent your money over to a borrower, it does not matter who else is affected by the borrower's default. You must watch out for your own interests first. The only global effect the Chinese will be concerned with is the fall of the dollar. All the better for them, as yuan has now been given the status of a reserve currency.

As for lenders other than China, most of them are institutional investors - who have no benefits to be gained from trade leverage or defense contracts, so that strawman goes out the window. They will force the default on the first drop of a hat.

Yes, there is little correlation in the two economies. Doesn't add anything to the argument though.
 
dandapinda said:
Your going around circles can't fool me ,if you know the answer give it or just move on,I don't give a damn about your whining.

Question is simple - Which economy world can afford to fail? Pakistan or US??


That Young Indian comment,you have no idea it's for Indian posters especially who know about National herald case.
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The comment about buying an entity (or a country in this case) for the value of its debt is absurdly stupid. Secondly, there is no going around in circles. You are comparing apples and oranges. The world can't afford either of the countries to fail. Let's not forget Pakistan is a nuclear armed country. Economic failure of Pakistan would be disastrous for the entire world.
 
uberkoen said:
The comment about buying an entity (or a country in this case) for the value of its debt is absurdly stupid. Secondly, there is no going around in circles. You are comparing apples and oranges. The world can't afford either of the countries to fail. Let's not forget Pakistan is a nuclear armed country. Economic failure of Pakistan would be disastrous for the entire world.
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So now you realised US & Pakistan comparison economically is Apples & Orranges that's what I am trying to convince Ironcat.

But I agree what will happen if Pakistan fails as it will definitely increase violence in region.

Young Indian comment is for people who know National herald case...its just light hearted comment.

By the way I am not knowing Pakistan provinces doesn't change the fact that Azad is not really Azad even with a fake PM when you are reporting to External ministry for Kashmir in Pakistan Govt.
 
dandapinda said:
So now you realised US & Pakistan comparison economically is Apples & Orranges that's what I am trying to convince Ironcat.

But I agree what will happen if Pakistan fails as it will definitely increase violence in region.

Young Indian comment is for people who know National herald case...its just light hearted comment.

By the way I am not knowing Pakistan provinces doesn't change the fact that Azad is not really Azad even with a fake PM when you are reporting to External ministry for Kashmir in Pakistan Govt.
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:110:

Just give up bro.
 
Ironcat said:
Yes, there is little correlation in the two economies. Doesn't add anything to the argument though.
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That's what I said I beginning you cannot compare your debt with US as US is far bigger economy and can handle themselves better than Pakistan.
 
dandapinda said:
That's what I said I beginning you cannot compare your debt with US as US is far bigger economy and can handle themselves better than Pakistan.
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There is no need for any correlation between two economies for either of them to default. The size will do nothing to save you if your debt is even bigger.
 
Ironcat said:
There is no need for any correlation between two economies for either of them to default. The size will do nothing to save you if your debt is even bigger.
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Not only size how much your economy coupled with world economy and its impact etc..

I guess you remember all those drama surrounding Greek,even though small country its failure was seen as a big blow to unity of Europe,now just place US in same place and think.

After this you put Pakistan in place of Greek and think how world economy will get affected if Pak defaults???
 
dandapinda said:
Not only size how much your economy coupled with world economy and its impact etc..

I guess you remember all those drama surrounding Greek,even though small country its failure was seen as a big blow to unity of Europe,now just place US in same place and think.

After this you put Pakistan in place of Greek and think how world economy will get affected if Pak defaults???
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And what do you think is happening to Europe right now because of Greece?

Euro vs US - check that FX rate.

Eurozone growth other than Germany's vs US - dismal.

Greek debt - officially restructured with huge losses to pretty much all lenders.

Greek economic situation - dire.
 
dandapinda said:
[MENTION=65416]Ironcat[/MENTION] I am not interested in details..I am arguing about one point that you cannot compare US & Pak debts....there is no comparison.

Now this is an old article...read Oct 31 directly if you don't have time..

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/b...nancialpost.com//news/economy/us-debt-default
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Your argument doesn't have any legs - that's the problem. The article you link has the exact same points as I have highlighted above - i.e. it underscores how serious the US debt problem is.

Pakistan and US debt situations are not comparable only for one reason - and that is, the US problem is much worse. US cannot grow out of its debt burden; Pakistan can - simply because it is currently a micro-sized country on a relative basis. If you are a 60-year-old with your income not growing anymore and with a huge debt burden, you are practically doomed. If you are a 30-year-old on the other hand - no matter how unruly and unpredictable - you still have plenty of time to grow your income and get out of this burden if you get on track eventually.

Other than this reason, US has the an equally bad GDP-to-debt or revenue-to-debt problem as Pakistan. First, in numbers. Second, in politics - where everyone is playing the blame game.

Greece is another example against your argument. If US was to take a chill pill, stretch its legs, and wait to become Greece to be saved under "unity", its unemployment rate would climb to 25%, its credit rating demolished, and its country run by its lenders.
 
[MENTION=65416]Ironcat[/MENTION],you still not getting the point.Its obvious US have grave problems but there are reasons where it will be bailed out if required while Pakistan don't have to be bailed out as it doesn't add much to world economy.

I am not disputing US debt situation as you seen in article that situation came in 2012 where they delayed salaries for some employees but you can see the grave risks to World economy itself.
 
dandapinda said:
[MENTION=65416]Ironcat[/MENTION],you still not getting the point.Its obvious US have grave problems but there are reasons where it will be bailed out if required while Pakistan don't have to be bailed out as it doesn't add much to world economy.

I am not disputing US debt situation as you seen in article that situation came in 2012 where they delayed salaries for some employees but you can see the grave risks to World economy itself.
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Actually, I saw your argument about halfway up the page and responded to it in post # 102.

Why don't you walk us through how the US bailout will work other than what was explained in that post? Suppose $1 TN out of its current $19 TN is due next year and the US doesn't have the funds. So, tell us what can be done to bail out the US.
 
Ironcat said:
Actually, I saw your argument about halfway up the page and responded to it in post # 102.

Why don't you walk us through how the US bailout will work other than what was explained in that post? Suppose $1 TN out of its current $19 TN is due next year and the US doesn't have the funds. So, tell us what can be done to bail out the US.
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Deep cuts/print more dollars/sell assets/sell gold.

Again this is not the point,my point is how deeply US involved itself with World economy & its ripple effects.Even borrowes will ready to make concessions in case of US as they are also going to face bigger problems....

same thing cannot said about Pakistan.
 
dandapinda said:
Deep cuts/print more dollars/sell assets/sell gold.

Again this is not the point,my point is how deeply US involved itself with World economy & its ripple effects.Even borrowes will ready to make concessions in case of US as they are also going to face bigger problems....

same thing cannot said about Pakistan.
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Deep cuts: Means deep job cuts. Not good for the US economy. You have a new Greece.

Print more dollars: Dollar goes down the toilet. US inflation sky rockets. You have a new Brazil.

Sell assets: Which assets? US government hardly owns any excess assets. Most of the assets it does own are USD-denominated, whose value will be in the toilets as well once the USD heads down there.

Sell gold: US currently has ~8,000 tonnes of gold. At $1,000/oz, this amounts ~@250MM worth of gold. Only a quarter of the $ 1TN. What are you going to do in the following year? And what would happen to the value of USD still if its perceived collateral - i.e. gold - is sold off? What will happen to the price of gold if US shows up in the market with 8,000 tonnes to sell?

And what concessions will be allowed to the US that are not allowed to Pakistan? If Pakistan says it is not repaying, lenders stop lending to it. Why would the Chinese throw good money after bad to the US for free? What ripple effect on the world economy are the Chinese afraid of? Certainly, not the USD.
 
If you owe the bank £1,000 , can't repay and you don't have enough assets, you have a big problem.
If you owe the bank £1,000,000 , can't repay and you don't have enough assets, the bank has a big problem.
 
Ironcat said:
Deep cuts: Means deep job cuts. Not good for the US economy. You have a new Greece.

Print more dollars: Dollar goes down the toilet. US inflation sky rockets. You have a new Brazil.

Sell assets: Which assets? US government hardly owns any excess assets. Most of the assets it does own are USD-denominated, whose value will be in the toilets as well once the USD heads down there.

Sell gold: US currently has ~8,000 tonnes of gold. At $1,000/oz, this amounts ~@250MM worth of gold. Only a quarter of the $ 1TN. What are you going to do in the following year? And what would happen to the value of USD still if its perceived collateral - i.e. gold - is sold off? What will happen to the price of gold if US shows up in the market with 8,000 tonnes to sell?

And what concessions will be allowed to the US that are not allowed to Pakistan? If Pakistan says it is not repaying, lenders stop lending to it. Why would the Chinese throw good money after bad to the US for free? What ripple effect on the world economy are the Chinese afraid of? Certainly, not the USD.
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What the hell did i just read...

1)USD hasn't been backed by gold in over 80 years - ie Gold has not been a collateral for USD and Feds have no plans to go back to the gold standards. Infact which major currency is backed by gold nowadays ?Even Singapore, generally regarded as having one of the healthiest balance sheets on the planet, holds a mere 2% of its money supply in gold.

2) China lends money to the US for the simple reason that US is the biggest market for Chinese manufacturing and services, if US is in trouble then China isn't too far behind in falling into that ditch in the short term - the Chinese economy has been growing too fast for its own good - the Chinese bubble is expected to pop within the next decade or two unless they start growing more organically and rely less on dumping exports to Western countries


comparing US and Pakistan in terms of economy is really a new level of Fallacious argument
 
Duncan_Ferguson said:
What the hell did i just read...

1)USD hasn't been backed by gold in over 80 years - ie Gold has not been a collateral for USD and Feds have no plans to go back to the gold standards. Infact which major currency is backed by gold nowadays ?Even Singapore, generally regarded as having one of the healthiest balance sheets on the planet, holds a mere 2% of its money supply in gold.
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This is why I wrote "perceived" - but, of course, you chose to ignore the entire post and write a drama focusing on a noun which had a precise adjective to qualify it.

Duncan_Ferguson said:
2) China lends money to the US for the simple reason that US is the biggest market for Chinese manufacturing and services,
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Let's parse through this logic. "China lends USD to the US government so that the US government can lend to the US consumers so that the US consumers can spend USD on Chinese goods." And how does China pay for its costs? In hard yuan cash. Excellent. Let's pay our expenses in hard cash in one currency, and let's receive our revenues by lending money to our consumers in another currency. If a Chinese central banker heard of this logic, he or she would probably have a heart attack.

China buys USD because of two key reasons. The primary reason is to keep the price of yuan low in USD terms. If your currency is cheap enough, your exports are attractive to the rest of the world, and they buy from you. How does it keep the yuan low? It buys up the USD on the market reducing USD supply and sells the yuan increasing yuan supply. A second reason is, the USD treasuries market is the most liquid TN$+ market in the world. It is the only market that can absorb China's enormous reserves and not move the prices on a wholesome basis.

Duncan_Ferguson said:
if US is in trouble then China isn't too far behind in falling into that ditch in the short term - the Chinese economy has been growing too fast for its own good - the Chinese bubble is expected to pop within the next decade or two unless they start growing more organically and rely less on dumping exports to Western countries
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Chinese stock market bubble already popped this year in the summer. Its GDP growth has fallen from 10%+ 10 years ago to ~6%-7% today, depending on whose estimate you look at. Most economists believe that actual growth is only about 5%. China was the primary growth engine of the world in the last 20 years.

Duncan_Ferguson said:
comparing US and Pakistan in terms of economy is really a new level of Fallacious argument
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Agreed, but not reading the actual argument (which is NOT about comparing the economies but rather about their relative debt levels) takes the cake.
 
Yossarian said:
If you owe the bank £1,000 , can't repay and you don't have enough assets, you have a big problem.
If you owe the bank £1,000,000 , can't repay and you don't have enough assets, the bank has a big problem.
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Yes that's what going to happen.I don't think US ever going to repay their debt.

As far as Pakistan is considered in dollar terms it's not big money,Saudi or Chains should be able to help you guys.
 
dandapinda said:
Yes that's what going to happen.I don't think US ever going to repay their debt.

As far as Pakistan is considered in dollar terms it's not big money,Saudi or Chains should be able to help you guys.
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Saudis are in big trouble too at the moment thanks to their role in middle east. I guess you missed the new yesterday for the first time saudi citizens are going to pay huge taxes for next year or 2 so that govt can recover the losses. Even oil prices are going to increase in Saudia by 50%.
 
Strike Rate said:
Saudis are in big trouble too at the moment thanks to their role in middle east. I guess you missed the new yesterday for the first time saudi citizens are going to pay huge taxes for next year or 2 so that govt can recover the losses. Even oil prices are going to increase in Saudia by 50%.
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Yes I have read they missed revenue targets...still they hold huge sovereign funds.

Still $90 billion is not really huge comparing how much spent on Greek recently...

May be Nawaz's new friend will help you if required.

Also there is Asian bank or fund something available for this.
 
how come petrol is cheaper in pakistan when compared with India ? do you guys get subsided oil from gulf states ?
 
dandapinda said:
Yes I have read they missed revenue targets...still they hold huge sovereign funds.

Still $90 billion is not really huge comparing how much spent on Greek recently...

May be Nawaz's new friend will help you if required.

Also there is Asian bank or fund something available for this.
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Thank you for the wonderful insight. However, I don't remember Pakistan asking for help or advice.
 
guvi said:
how come petrol is cheaper in pakistan when compared with India ? do you guys get subsided oil from gulf states ?
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Pakistan government has a subsidy. That's part of where the spending goes. That subsidy right now is working in the opposite direction - a quasi tax - in that the wonderfully low oil prices are not being entirely passed on and creating a windfall.
 
Ironcat said:
Pakistan government has a subsidy. That's part of where the spending goes. That subsidy right now is working in the opposite direction - a quasi tax - in that the wonderfully low oil prices are not being entirely passed on and creating a windfall.
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Same in India as well,but state oil companies suffered enough losses over the years passing everything won't give anything back to Govt.

Here tax is different in different states.
 
dandapinda said:
Yes that's what going to happen.I don't think US ever going to repay their debt.

As far as Pakistan is considered in dollar terms it's not big money,Saudi or Chains should be able to help you guys.
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That will only work if the US has a budget surplus. Most of the debt is used to fund the deficit, and if you ever say no to a net repayment (US always repays the old debt but rolls a new bigger one over), you can either kiss goodbye to the debt markets or expect a much higher interest rate.

Once with a sustainable budget surplus, yes, you can tell your international creditors to p*** off - but, seeing how the US consumers are addicted to the cheaper imported goods, I don't see it happening year in and out at least in my lifetime.

BTW, anyone, including China, holding US treasuries can dump them in the secondary markets if they really want. But that will indeed thump the USD.
 
Ironcat said:
That will only work if the US has a budget surplus. Most of the debt is used to fund the deficit, and if you ever say no to a net repayment (US always repays the old debt but rolls a new bigger one over), you can either kiss goodbye to the debt markets or expect a much higher interest rate.

Once with a sustainable budget surplus, yes, you can tell your international creditors to p*** off - but, seeing how the US consumers are addicted to the cheaper imported goods, I don't see it happening year in and out at least in my lifetime.

BTW, anyone, including China, holding US treasuries can dump them in the secondary markets if they really want. But that will indeed thump the USD.
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If dollar devalued it will hit China exports. China keeps it currency devalued for certain reason and it itself in breaking point if US collapses.

US had very good people back in day they made sure their future generations,how much idiots they may be,still have say in world economy by creating WB,making dollar as default currency etc...
 
dandapinda said:
If dollar devalued it will hit China exports. China keeps it currency devalued for certain reason and it itself in breaking point if US collapses.

US had very good people back in day they made sure their future generations,how much idiots they may be,still have say in world economy by creating WB,making dollar as default currency etc...
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Well, that's why I qualified the "dumping into secondary markets" argument. It ain't pretty for China, but - of course - it's much uglier for the US. US import prices would skyrocket and the deficit would widen. Chinese exports would go down but that would only trim the surplus. In the end, US would still need the debt markets.

Chinese are much smarter at the moment than the US when it comes to planning for the future. Having a single decision-making authority helps - while the US lawmakers squabble over raising the debt ceiling into the wee hours of the day.
 
dandapinda said:
Problem is there are so many different opinions about same subject.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/10/investing/china-dumping-us-debt/
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Yup, that is what I quoted in post # 102:
Let's try (1) first. Where do you think the Chinese will forever come up with the funds for the new US loans? Their imports are shrinking, their exports are shrinking, and there is tremendous pressure on the yuan. Last quarter, their forex reserves fell by a record $93BN:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-au...nes-1441614856
Click to expand...
This is basically what you call a cash call, but I think it will repeat itself if their housing market needs to be bolstered or they need to trigger the local market with infrastructure spending etc.
 
dandapinda said:
So now you realised US & Pakistan comparison economically is Apples & Orranges that's what I am trying to convince Ironcat.

But I agree what will happen if Pakistan fails as it will definitely increase violence in region.

Young Indian comment is for people who know National herald case...its just light hearted comment.

By the way I am not knowing Pakistan provinces doesn't change the fact that Azad is not really Azad even with a fake PM when you are reporting to External ministry for Kashmir in Pakistan Govt.
Click to expand...
What is the sovereign credit rating of Pakistan and US?
 
Pakistan is shining under PMLN govt with all those spicy loans from IMF.
 
Pakistan is not a sovereign nation the day it took a loan from the IMF and world bank.
 
Yossarian said:
If you owe the bank £1,000 , can't repay and you don't have enough assets, you have a big problem.
If you owe the bank £1,000,000 , can't repay and you don't have enough assets, the bank has a big problem.
Click to expand...

replace 'you' with a 'country' and every citizen have a big problem.
 
WebGuru said:
Pakistan is shining under PMLN govt with all those spicy loans from IMF.
Click to expand...

Loans are not an issue the utilization of the same should be an issue.In today's world Loans are an easier way to speed up the economy.
 
JaDed said:
Loans are not an issue the utilization of the same should be an issue.In today's world Loans are an easier way to speed up the economy.
Click to expand...

Yea it's the priority that matters most. PMLN govt is already not spending enough on health and education and thn they are using those funds of health and education to speed up metros and orange train projects so they can use them in their election campaigns and than they spending billions on ad campaigns of these mega projects to cash votes. In KP it's totally opposite they are spending more on health and education thn roads and bridges. In KP they are also building bridges and roads but it's not the priority and they are not wasting billions of tax payers money on ad campaigns to show "SEE OUR BEAUTIFUL WORK".

In recent survey Punjab was on top in corruption and KP at bottom that shows you a lot about priorities and how the money is being used.
 
WebGuru said:
Yea it's the priority that matters most. PMLN govt is already not spending enough on health and education and thn they are using those funds of health and education to speed up metros and orange train projects so they can use them in their election campaigns and than they spending billions on ad campaigns of these mega projects to cash votes. In KP it's totally opposite they are spending more on health and education thn roads and bridges. In KP they are also building bridges and roads but it's not the priority and they are not wasting billions of tax payers money on ad campaigns to show "SEE OUR BEAUTIFUL WORK".

In recent survey Punjab was on top in corruption and KP at bottom that shows you a lot about priorities and how the money is being used.
Click to expand...

Fair points but the issue would occur incase KP govn changes will the money on health and education hold up for the new Govn?(genuine question)

The Metro projects will hold up irrespective of the govn(although initial costs look inflated),I admire what KP is doing w.r.t health and education but they should put systems in place that would stay irrespective of which party comes in.

In SC idealism would never work because of poverty level good systems might work.
 
JaDed said:
Fair points but the issue would occur incase KP govn changes will the money on health and education hold up for the new Govn?(genuine question)

The Metro projects will hold up irrespective of the govn(although initial costs look inflated),I admire what KP is doing w.r.t health and education but they should put systems in place that would stay irrespective of which party comes in.

In SC idealism would never work because of poverty level good systems might work.
Click to expand...

They are building institutions in KP and putting a system in place instead of going for short term. KP is the only province in Pakistan where a political party never win twice in a row but i can already see PTI winning KP again in 2018 because of the good work they are doing their which is resulting in massive support. I am a Punjabi but what i like about people of KP is that they don't vote blindly like majority of Punjabis and Sindhis so if you don't work thn good bye to you in next elections.
 
WebGuru said:
They are building institutions in KP and putting a system in place instead of going for short term. KP is the only province in Pakistan where a political party never win twice in a row but i can already see PTI winning KP again in 2018 because of the good work they are doing their which is resulting in massive support. I am a Punjabi but what i like about people of KP is that they don't vote blindly like majority of Punjabis and Sindhis so if you don't work thn good bye to you in next elections.
Click to expand...

Good for KP if its true.
 
WebGuru said:
replace 'you' with a 'country' and every citizen have a big problem.
Click to expand...
False comparison. My post specifically stated "and you don't have enough assets" to cover the amount owed. Governments and countries don't deal in terms of "assets" in the same manner as individuals or corporate entities. Otherwise, a land mass of around 350,000 sq miles would make one heck of an "asset", bits of which could be sold off, say a few hundred sq miles of Baluchistan to Iran, or to an Arab country, or to Russia, to pay off any loans.
 
Last edited:
Wonder how they will dig themselves out of this one - will they even try? A country with immense talent and loads of potential - Tough times ahead unfortunately unless they discover black gold....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Spookiewookie said:
Wonder how they will dig themselves out of this one - will they even try? A country with immense talent and loads of potential - Tough times ahead unfortunately unless they discover black gold....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Don't worry we will find our way.
 
Yossarian said:
False comparison. My post specifically stated "and you don't have enough assets" to cover the amount owed. Governments and countries don't deal in terms of "assets" in the same manner as individuals or corporate entities. Otherwise, a land mass of around 350,000 sq miles would make one heck of an "asset", bits of which could be sold off, say a few hundred sq miles of Baluchistan to Iran, or to an Arab country, or to Russia, to pay off any loans.
Click to expand...

There was an offer of $100 billion by the thekedars of this world and in return they asked us to roll back nuclear program.
 
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