(In NZ, using 2019 and 2020 series)
(Over 4 innings)
Pakistan’s average innings score with the bat: 248
India’s average innings score with the bat: 180
Pakistan’s average runs conceded per 10 wickets: 604.7
India’s average runs conceded per 10 wickets: 314.7
So if we establish India as a benchmark, since it is the best or at least top 3 team right now and more comparable than any SENA country to Pakistan since it is Asian, then our actual issue is not with the batting order.
Note that the above statistics are also without Babar Azam, who subs in for Haris Sohail who has 28 runs in 4 innings.
My argument is that it’s Pakistan’s bowling attack that is in a rebuilding phase, not the batting order. We also have some excellent prospects in Saud Shakeel and Kamran Ghulam coming through, but we do not have any potentially international class bowling prospects on the fringes except Hassan Ali.
What we need is to find good support for Shaheen, who himself would be a support bowler in any other team right now, not a spearhead.
Abbas used to be an excellent spearhead but his lack of pace has made him completely ineffective, plus batsmen have learned to stand out of the crease to him. Naseem had a lot of good potential, but his action has been heavily tinkered with and I fear for his future (I don’t think his potential is as bad as stats suggest).
We are heavily reliant on Hassan Ali maintaining fitness without injury and quickly taking the Abbas role in the attack. If this can be done quickly, we might indeed see results in 2 years as the OP is suggesting.
We also need a strike spinner who maintains good control - Yasir, Zafar, Sajid, and Zahid are all pretty good, but none of them is particularly good. This is another dilemma we need to figure out. For what it’s worth, Usman Qadir should be playing lots and lots of first class cricket, as he generates pretty good turn but lacks control. The other spinners I mentioned, honestly any of them will have to make do for us over the next 2 years.
The best bowling attack I can think of using current resources to be developed for England and NZ conditions in 2024, let’s say, is this:
Hassan Ali
Shaheen Afridi
Naseem Shah
Faheem Ashraf
Sajid Khan / Zafar Gohar
It’s not particularly remarkable, but I do expect it to be better than right now.
I expect Hassan to be more penetrative than Abbas was, Shaheen to be an improved bowler, and Naseem to get back up to his regular pace (assuming he gets proper technical bowling advice) and exert more control while nipping the ball around.
I don’t think the spinners will be particularly exceptional, and I don’t think Faheem can do any more than a holding job and the odd wicket.
The biggest takeaway though, is that Pakistan is unlikely to become that much of a better side in years to come, let alone the next 2 years. I think our batting will stay par with what it is now, or maybe slightly better (hopefully we can average 300 per innings next time we tour NZ, not 250 like this year). Our bowling, however, will have to significantly, significantly improve.
That’s what we need to focus on rebuilding right now.