The best combination that PAK can put in typical NZ wicket is six batsmen + 4 pacers with couple of batsmen capable of bowling some spin overs. There is absolutely nothing in NZ wicket for spinners in recent days therefore I don’t see any reason to play a specialist spinner. Also, all-rounder for the sake of it shouldn’t be picked.
In that regard, it’s extremely important for PAK that Haris Sohail remains fit because Babar can extract 23-25 tight spin overs from him and I believe he’ll be much more economical than Shadab. Azhar can roll few overs of leg spin as well. That allows a fourth pacer, ideally should have been Amir which makes a very balanced pace attack with a pair of left-right combo and almost every type of bowling options there. Since he is not there, I am scratching my head to pick the 4th pacer - if not Amir, next best was probably Hasan, he is not there either, therefore may be, may be Sohail Khan isn’t a bad option. He can give 18-19 very good overs in first innings, another 10-12 in second innings with new ball and he can bat better than Faheem for sure.
That makes the line-up like
1. Shan
2. Abid
3. Azhar
4. *Babar
5. Haris
6. Open spot (they’ll probably play Fawad, but don’t mind Talat or even Shadab if he gives the confidence with bat)
7. +Rizwan
8. Sohail Khan (Amir or even Yamin could have been better choice)
9. Abbas
10. Shaheen
11. Naseem
They can split the two lefti at 5 & 6 by promoting Rizwan at 6 and pushing Fawad/Talat at 7.
This line up puts an extra pressure on bowlers because now there won’t be any excuses. Also, batsmen have to make sure that bulk amount of scoring will be done by front six pairs. Abbas’s role is most critical here to ensure 50+ tight overs in the game; may be then other three pacers can be extremely effective- Shaheen 35 overs, Naseem & Sohail 29 each + Haris/Azhar/Fawad/Talat 27 overs max. That’s 170 overs and bowlers have to take 20 wickets in those 170 overs otherwise in any case PAK won’t win the Test, in fact won’t save it either without rain. At the expected scoring rate Kiwis can score around 575 in 170 overs - that’s the maximum cap for PAK batting, even if they that get the remaining 275 or so overs of the game - I don’t see them posting 600 in combined innings. PAK can only win a Test in a bowling shoot out - 40 wickets for like 1000-1100 runs game. NZ at home are actually a tougher opponent than Poms at home, therefore it’s not going to be easy.