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Post Covid 19 Economic impact on the world?

Savak

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No one knows when this epidemic will end, I think we are looking at a lockdown for at least another 2-3 months till June-July. Realistically govt's can only start easing things once the number of cases start going down. People on the other hand are going to feel far more relaxed once a proper vaccine is found.

But once this thing is over, its going to take companies, corporations and bodies a while to recoup their losses and get back on their feet again i.e. a year at least. Are companies going to be conservative, circumspect in their hiring choices and business choices?

Are people going reassess their career choices, life choices given what they have witnessed, gone through that how shaky their fields are to shocks to the economy? Are salaries going to be the same again? Are students going to go into other fields?

Things to ponder about
 
Things wont be the same for a few years. A few sectors already taking the hit
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Globalisation as we know it is over.
The 9/11 terrorism era is over.
High Street retail era is over.
Airline industry changed forever.
Vaccine/bio passports will be introduced.

Next few decades is all about health, atleast this will be the media narrative.
 
The health sector in first-world countries is going to see a massive boost in resources. You'd assume the same will happen in other nations but they're far more volatile politically.

I think it's become increasingly clear the world can be brought to its knees in a matter of months without a single bullet being fired.
 
[MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION]

Coronavirus pandemic exposes urgent need for programmers of a very old computer language

https://mashable.com/article/coronavirus-unemployment-cobol-programmers/

If I recall we discussed this before, the need for COBOL programmer arises.. this is jus an example..

In terms of tech I think there would be much more Cloud computing in future with a high demand for data integration.
AI is already been huge with vaccine trials.


Non-IT:

Lesser globalization, globalization was already being hit due to job losses across the world this might put a final dent to it atleast for near term.(although I cannot think of rich corporations changing things).

The way ventilators are being built suddenly now I wonder how many other such devices are being sold at such an expensive price, many healthcare ones would probably be under scanner now.

Sports in near term might not be a big earner like before-- Can't say for sure but absolutely no one has given a zilch about sports celebs in a month now.
 
[MENTION=4930]Yossarian[/MENTION]

Coronavirus pandemic exposes urgent need for programmers of a very old computer language

https://mashable.com/article/coronavirus-unemployment-cobol-programmers/

If I recall we discussed this before, the need for COBOL programmer arises.. this is jus an example..

In terms of tech I think there would be much more Cloud computing in future with a high demand for data integration.
AI is already been huge with vaccine trials.


Non-IT:

Lesser globalization, globalization was already being hit due to job losses across the world this might put a final dent to it atleast for near term.(although I cannot think of rich corporations changing things).

The way ventilators are being built suddenly now I wonder how many other such devices are being sold at such an expensive price, many healthcare ones would probably be under scanner now.

Sports in near term might not be a big earner like before-- Can't say for sure but absolutely no one has given a zilch about sports celebs in a month now.
sorry to derail your thread bro but with the coronavirus fiasco and global recession looming I'm not sure what will be in demand.
what kinda of career path would you recommend someone who is just getting into I.t? I have specialized in networking but I want to go towards the programming side as well but I'm not sure where to begin?
 
sorry to derail your thread bro but with the coronavirus fiasco and global recession looming I'm not sure what will be in demand.
what kinda of career path would you recommend someone who is just getting into I.t? I have specialized in networking but I want to go towards the programming side as well but I'm not sure where to begin?

Can’t say for sure but networking is good too, ever green field from an IT perspective esp the new cloud network engineers..or even security network engineers..

In programming I would say DevOps(python scripting) , Cloud computing(aws,azure) are going to pickup speed more ,the only issue everyone who was working in .net, Java ,sql programming has jumped into cloud computing and Big data..extremely crowded but good ones always make it.

I work in Integration and can’t predict for everything but I notice Dev ops and Java(along with no-sql, sql, CI , spring boot) are always having high number of job openings atleast in States but it depends from country to country..
 
I think countries will start to be more self-reliant. Globalism may get reduced quite a bit (at least temporarily).
 
Big companies will do better, small businesses will suffer

Some people are naively cheering the collapse, saying an economic collapse will mean the field between rich and poor is getting level

What may happen is the pharma industry and healthcare industry will be worshipped and be allowed to get away with anything and everything.
 
sorry to derail your thread bro but with the coronavirus fiasco and global recession looming I'm not sure what will be in demand.
what kinda of career path would you recommend someone who is just getting into I.t? I have specialized in networking but I want to go towards the programming side as well but I'm not sure where to begin?

Networking is extremely good if you are skilled enough and enjoy challenged.

Networking + Automation/Scripting + Cloud
Security + Scripting + Cloud

Chose any of the above and if you are good at it you can get paid pretty good. In India, some of us are paid comparitively to Western countries (Australia, UK and Europe) with just 8-12 years experience. Which is extremely good salary for India.

Downside is that you won't get much relaxed days as work load will always be challenging and you need to keep evolving and learning new things.
 
Big companies will do better, small businesses will suffer

Some people are naively cheering the collapse, saying an economic collapse will mean the field between rich and poor is getting level

What may happen is the pharma industry and healthcare industry will be worshipped and be allowed to get away with anything and everything.

Eh no one is cheering for the economic collapse, was reading somewhere that Buffet’s company has 128 billions in reserves cash..if anything he can buy big companies after this.
So the 1% among the 1% who are going to be even richer..
 
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is predicting a severe decline in international commerce this year.

In a new report the WTO forecasts a contraction of between 13% and 32% this year.

The wide range of possibilities reflects the uncertainties about the health crisis.

It says the impact on trade is likely to exceed the slump caused by the financial crisis just over a decade ago.

The WTO's director general Roberto Azevedo described the figures as "ugly".

"There is no getting round that", he said. He said the situation was first and foremost a health crisis and he acknowledged that governments had to take steps to protect people's lives.

"The unavoidable declines in trade and output will have painful consequences for households and businesses, on top of the human suffering caused by the disease itself," he added.

Relatively optimistic
A decline of 13% in trade in goods is described in the report as a relatively optimistic scenario. It reflects a steep drop in trade followed by a recovery starting in the second half of 2020.

That of course would need to be based on substantial progress over the next few months in getting on top of the health crisis.

That is obviously not guaranteed, so the report includes a much more pessimistic case which reflects a steeper initial decline and a more prolonged and incomplete recovery.

The report also warns that "the extent of uncertainty is very high, and it is well within the realm of possibilities that for both 2020 and 2021 the outcomes could be above or below these results".

The report says that the growth in global trade had already stalled towards the end of last year. By the final quarter of 2019 goods trade was 1% lower than a year earlier.

The WTO says this was the result of "persistent trade tensions", a reference that to a large extent reflects the confrontational approach to international commerce taken by the administration of President Donald Trump.

Mr Azevedo said trade would be an important ingredient in the economic recovery after the crisis. He said keeping markets open and predictable would be critical.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52211919
 
EU finance ministers have agreed a €500bn (£440bn) rescue package for member countries hit by the pandemic. The deal was reached after marathon discussions in Brussels in Thursday.

The package includes support for governments, companies and for workers.

Yet the ministers fell short of accepting a demand, by France, Spain and Italy, to share out the cost of the crisis by issuing so-called corona bonds.

Earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected that idea of mutual debt, stating that she didn’t believe there should be a “common liability for each other’s debt, given the current state of the political union in the EU”.
 
The effects of this pandemic on the future price of goods and services

Will the prices increase or decrease in general?

For example the car industry. Will these be more expensive because manufacturers are trying to recover losses or less expensive because they want to increase sales (albeit with a smaller profit margin) and know that the public may be struggling financially and not willing to spend money on a vehicle?

What about the airline/tourism industry? Will they reduce prices in order to entice reluctant holiday makers who are still apprehensive of global travel? It could be that there is a huge influx of people wanting to go on holiday (as many had to cancel previous plans) and these industries could take advantage of that and raise prices.

House prices?

Electronics such as mobile phones etc?

What does everyone think?
 
Airlines will be expensive.

Ventilators will be cheaper.

Oil would obviously go up from its current price but don’t think its reaching last year level.

Telecom though , not sure about this one..
 
I think automobile industry will suffer the most and it was already suffering in India at least due to GST.

Electronic items prices will increase. Travel industry will suffer losses. Restaurants and hospitality sector will also suffer losses. People won't host much events so they will have to lower their prices.

Sports are already suffering.

Many people have already lost jobs in India and many have been asked to go on unpaid leaves. This year 2020 has been the worse year for all the humans.
 
Everything will increase if this gets really out of hand, simple reason your currency will be worth peanuts.
 
With governments pumping hundreds of billions, even trillions, to keep their economies from disintegrating, all this will need to be paid for once the dust settles.

How that will be done will affect everything.

Globalisation is dead as we knew it before the crisis.

Countries are (metaphorically speaking as yet, but sadly, in some cases, will be doing it for real before too long) fighting it out for key equipment and resources. And not just for the obvious like PPE, key drugs, ventilators and face masks, but also for many of the components and raw ingredients, even if the countries have the production facilities themselves. Think of every component or chemical or ingredient that goes into producing key drugs, and other medical equipment.

Governments everywhere will start making laws preventing their manufacturers of key equipment (medical, as well as key infrastructure equipment) from locating their facilities, and associated supply chains, overseas.
 
Lol i can definately see the fitness industry evolving, people are now going to be a lot more comfortable with online sessions and exercising at home
 
I am already seeing restaurants trying to entice customers with discounts, prices will be cheap for at-least a year because companies need to encourage consumerism
 
Manufacturing will move out of China, some things will get expensive.

QE might result in inflation.

Oil industry however is toast.
 
Uber Eats and Deliveroo delivery prices are very expensive atm
 
With governments pumping hundreds of billions, even trillions, to keep their economies from disintegrating, all this will need to be paid for once the dust settles.

How that will be done will affect everything.

Globalisation is dead as we knew it before the crisis.

Countries are (metaphorically speaking as yet, but sadly, in some cases, will be doing it for real before too long) fighting it out for key equipment and resources. And not just for the obvious like PPE, key drugs, ventilators and face masks, but also for many of the components and raw ingredients, even if the countries have the production facilities themselves. Think of every component or chemical or ingredient that goes into producing key drugs, and other medical equipment.

Governments everywhere will start making laws preventing their manufacturers of key equipment (medical, as well as key infrastructure equipment) from locating their facilities, and associated supply chains, overseas.

The Oil wars in the MiddleEast v Russia + Covid - Double Whammy - terrible economic times ahead folks.
 
There only one way out of this and thats a new world order otherwise all these debts will get pasted to the public through higher taxes.
 
Coronavirus: after the lockdown
As the UK and most of Europe enjoys glorious Easter sunshine, few people can take part in traditional festivities. With travel and social gatherings banned in most countries to reduce the transmission of coronavirus, many look forward desperately to emerging from a lockdown that is not only curtailing personal lives but also destroying businesses and the global economy.

Some European countries, including Austria, Denmark and Norway, have announced tentative plans to relax the most stringent measures later this month, for example by allowing some shops and schools to reopen. But governments in the nations hit hardest by Covid-19 — Italy, Spain, France and the UK — are reluctant to talk openly about exit strategies. They do not want to distract people from observing lockdowns while death tolls are still rising.

As Rishi Sunak, UK chancellor, declared this week: “The priority right now is to stop the spread of the virus and get us to the other side of the peak.”

Behind closed doors, however, ministers and health officials everywhere are beginning to discuss what happens next. The debates about exit strategies focus on two themes: how to manage a staged and gradual reopening of some places of work, education, culture and entertainment; and what sort of “test and trace” regime would be needed to detect and suppress new virus outbreaks once the initial wave has subsided.

Across Europe there are signs that observance of stringent social distancing measures by the vast majority of the public — better compliance than many experts had expected — has led to a big decline in viral transmission.

The key figure is the “reproduction number” R measuring the average number of new cases generated by an infected individual. If R is above 1, an outbreak spreads; if it is below 1, it contracts. For Covid-19, R was between 2.5 and 3 in most places before any measures were introduced.

According to a leading scientist in the UK’s fight against the disease, the latest evidence shows a steep fall in the R rate to around 0.6 now, which would quickly suppress the pandemic.

However, deaths are still rising fast because of the delay between infection and when serious symptoms develop.

Patrick Vallance, UK chief scientist, said on Thursday there were clear signs of new cases levelling off. But he added: “I would expect the deaths to keep going up for two weeks.”

Mr Sunak and his officials have had to innovate at speed to minimise hardship during the lockdown. But they also know that more companies will go bankrupt the longer the lockdown continues. As a result, ministers are thinking hard about how and when to lift restrictions, even if there is no perfect testing and tracing regime available.

One minister says the focus was on three potential exit routes based on “populations, sectors and geography”. One option might be to let the young lead the way, perhaps starting by reopening schools, followed by a return to work for younger people who are less likely to become seriously ill if infected.

Some are attracted to a Warwick university paper by Andrew Oswald and Nattavudh Powdthavee, suggesting removing restrictions on 20-30-year-olds who do not live with their parents, which could release 4.2m people. One official jokes that a “youth first” policy might mean “you could even have a maximum age for drinking in pubs”.

Alok Sharma, business secretary, this week gave an indication of the kind of sectors that could be in the vanguard of an economic reawakening, when he offered more permissive guidance on social distancing rules. He told construction, manufacturing, logistics, essential retail, waste management and outdoor industries to apply the government’s advice to stay 2m apart but they were offered advice on how to stay open if that were not possible.

Ministers are less attracted to the idea of Britain reopening along geographical lines. Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, says the lockdown can only work if it is “the same thing for the whole of the country.” Speaking to BBC Newsnight, he added: “It would be impossible to sustain here if there were images of people going back to pubs in other parts of the country.”

Although ministers representing the country’s economic interests stress that the priority is to save lives, they are starting to open up a debate about the wider damage caused by coronavirus.

The chancellor has been raising questions, reinforced this week by a report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, about the longer-term health consequences of an extended lockdown and a deep recession, particularly on mental health and the wellbeing of poorer communities.

The subtext of this argument, raised at cabinet this week, is that it is possible to call for an easing of the lockdown without simply relying on cold economic arguments. “You have to look at the health picture in the round,” says one government official.

The eventual easing of the lockdown in Britain and elsewhere will be accompanied by an intensive “test and trace” regime to detect and stamp out new outbreaks of the virus, once the initial surge has passed. Many governments are closely studying the experience in South Korea, which set up an extensive testing system to monitor new infections.

If the UK can achieve its target of carrying out 100,000 tests a day by the end of April and ramp up capacity further over the following months, it will be possible to test individuals in the community who report Covid-19 symptoms. In theory, this would then be followed by the tracing, testing and isolating of people who have been in contact with them if they are infected.

This type of contact tracing, which involves questioning patients directly, took place when the first UK cases were reported but soon stopped when the pandemic swamped the country’s extremely limited testing capacity.

“Evidence suggests that countries that are able to do very high levels of testing have many more options to allow people greater social mobility,” says Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London. “Some really innovative solutions will play a part. Contact tracing based on a mobile phone app is being looked at.”

However, apps designed to track and inform citizens when they meet people who have tested positive for coronavirus pose formidable practical and policy challenges for western democracies, from ensuring open operating standards to maintaining data security.

In China, for instance, these health apps are not mandatory in most places, but individuals can find themselves barred from work, public transport or even the public park if they cannot show their status on a virus-tracking app, which shows their movements in the previous fortnight.

Privacy advocates aim to spot potential transgressions. “If tracking of individual movement is on the table, then that is unlikely to be in line with existing privacy laws, even in a crisis,” says Bill Wirtz, a Brussels-based analyst at the Consumer Choice Center.

For many scientists, the key to ending the lockdowns is mass testing for Covid-19 infection, which detects the presence of the virus. Paul Romer, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, has outlined a plan for mass testing in the US that he believes would allow for much of the economy to reopen.

However, this requires each person being tested every 14 days — or 22m tests a day — a mammoth undertaking in terms of labs, chemicals, health workers and data analysis, even if such tests are constitutionally acceptable. In the UK, the epidemiologist Julian Peto has made a similar proposal — weekly tests, running to 10m a day.

Large-scale antibody testing, to show whether individuals have been infected in the past and still have some immunity, is a more tantalising prospect because they would only need to be conducted occasionally and could potentially be bought at a pharmacy.

But first they need to actually work. Specialised labs are carrying out studies to determine antibody levels in samples of the population but no one has yet developed an antibody kit reliable enough for widespread use in homes. Kits evaluated by the UK government have failure rates of 30 to 50 per cent.

Eventually antibody tests could give individuals “immunity passports” to show that they are safe from infection, Prof Riley says, “but there’s some very important science to do first”. The key questions that have still to be answered are how different antibody levels relate to resistance to infection and how long any immune protection is likely to last.

Longer-term routes out of the coronavirus crisis require safe and effective treatments and vaccines. Dozens of existing drugs are in clinical trials to find out whether they help Covid-19 patients. Some may show efficacy but pharmacologists would be astonished if any turn out to be a magic bullet. Developing new drugs and vaccines will take more than a year, even with huge resources and regulatory goodwill.

Meanwhile governments still have a lack of knowledge about how the virus might return in a second wave and no real sense of how much immunity might build up in the population.

As Professor Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist and UK government adviser, told BBC Radio 4 on Friday, working out an exit strategy “is the number one topic and priority every waking minute, both in the scientific community and in government.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d48f0438...ft?token=da355404-7c8f-450a-a52f-3ef4152f4a73
 
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It all comes down to the first lesson of Economics - Supply and Demand.

Once the lockdown stops, if people rush out of homes and are keen to go on holiday / eat out at restaurants etc, then very quickly prices will rise to reflect that. Alternatively, (and I think this may be more likely) as the lockdown if lifted, people will be cautious as they step out of their homes and restaurants / airlines will have to tempt people back using discounts and promotions etc, so we will initially see lower prices.

There will also likely be a signification recession so that should add downward pressure to prices.
 
It's a double edged sword.
No buyer when you want to sell something. Even a Buyer-in-need will exploit this and You will have to lower the price.

No sellers when you want to buy something. You will have to raise the bid.

Food industry will become a very lucrative market.
 
Globalisation as we know it is over.
The 9/11 terrorism era is over.
High Street retail era is over.
Airline industry changed forever.
Vaccine/bio passports will be introduced.

Next few decades is all about health, atleast this will be the media narrative.

Globalisation isn't over. In fact, I predict even more globalisation going forward.
Governments everywhere are going to have to pump billions if not trillions to prop up their industries and manufacturers. So there will be a greater pressure on those industries to sell more and they will all want more access to foreign markets. High street retail isn't over either. Companies and manufactureres will want more people shopping and spending their money.
To make things attractive for shoppers, manufacturers will cut prices. So quite possibly, the era of the cheap 'made in china' products is over as cheap stuff will be manufactured everywhwere.
I see a huge increase in spending on healthcare. Most pharma companies and medical device manufacturers will reap the benefit. There is going to be a huge increase in research spending as well. So the scientific community will benefit.
The worst hit are going to be airlines, cruise shipping lines and other transportation sectors. I predict the complete demise of the cruise shipping industry. As for airlines, the big players will survive. Smaller airlines will either shut down or merge with a bigger partner.
 
The World Bank says South Asian nations, including India, are on course for their worst economic performance in 40 years because of the pandemic.

The region, comprising eight countries and home to a quarter of the world's population, is likely to show growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% this year, the bank said, down from the 6.3% it projected six months ago.

India's economy is expected to grow 1.5% to 2.8% in the fiscal year starting in April. Other than India, the World Bank forecast that Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will also see sharp falls in economic growth.

Three countries - Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Maldives - are expected to fall into recession - and the bank warns that decades of progress fighting poverty in the region are now at risk.
 
Bangladesh garment industry has been devastated by this virus. I will not be surprised if Bangladesh goes into recession. Tough times are likely.

As for Canada, it has been hit by two storms. One is Coronavirus and another is low oil price. A significant number of people have lost jobs in Canada.

Hopefully countries will recover quickly with some good plannings.
 
There only one way out of this and thats a new world order otherwise all these debts will get pasted to the public through higher taxes.

We need a total collapse of the fraudulent and evil monetary system currently in place. A new world order will be even worse because they will do it all with the dollar backed by thin air.

I don’t know how they will fix it but until they are stopped from making money from nothing and charging interest we are all screwed. The sad part is 99% of people don’t even know how evil it is and so as long as they can continue with their lives they don’t care.

They wanted a recession perhaps even a depression and they have it.
 
We need a total collapse of the fraudulent and evil monetary system currently in place. A new world order will be even worse because they will do it all with the dollar backed by thin air.

I don’t know how they will fix it but until they are stopped from making money from nothing and charging interest we are all screwed. The sad part is 99% of people don’t even know how evil it is and so as long as they can continue with their lives they don’t care.

They wanted a recession perhaps even a depression and they have it.

The dollar isnt actually backed by thin air as some arm chair pundits claim its stabilised by the petrodollar, which is why there desperate to protect the saudis and interfere in ME.

Saying that nearly all monetary systems in human history were fraudulent and evil. The good thing about the current system is that it at least accelerates creativity and innovation in all fields, leading to leaps in advancement in science, technology and medicine, which wouldn't be there if money wasn't made from a printing press.
 
Was going through a pizza driveway close to my house with posters stating "50% discounts being offered". This is how desperate people have become
 
Was going through a pizza driveway close to my house with posters stating "50% discounts being offered". This is how desperate people have become

How comfortable are you eating from out now? My family and I feel unease eating from out due to the virus. As in, we rather cook food at home now for hygiene purposes. Many people may feel the same even after the lockdown; this will only make the food sector suffer.
 
How comfortable are you eating from out now? My family and I feel unease eating from out due to the virus. As in, we rather cook food at home now for hygiene purposes. Many people may feel the same even after the lockdown; this will only make the food sector suffer.

Lol, i don't have any issues. We as a family are now getting bored of home cooked food and the effort that goes in cooking daily and then cleaning up the kitchen, cleaning the dishes and then putting everything back and everyone is dying to go and experience our favorite resteraunts again. I even offered to go and collect take out for everyone to give everyone a cooking break
 
Record fall coming for UK economy?
Britain's independent tax and spending watchdog has warned the coronavirus pandemic could trigger a record 35% drop in UK growth by June.

The Office for Budget Responsibility said that this was based on an assumption that the current lockdown would last for three months.

Under this scenario, unemployment would hit 10%, up from its current 3.9% rate.

However, once restrictions are lifted, the OBR said it expected growth to recover quickly with no lasting damage.

The OBR outlined the potential hit to the economy and public finances in a special report on Tuesday.

The BBC's economics editor, Faisal Islam, said: "These sorts of numbers are anticipated across the developed world, as most nations pursue forms of shutdown to control the spread of the virus and protect health systems from being overwhelmed.

"The forecast declines illustrate the difficult balancing act for the government in deciding when and how to lift lockdowns, now not expected until May at the earliest."
 
Coronavirus: 'World faces worst recession since Great Depression'

The global economy will contract by 3% this year as countries around the world shrink at the fastest pace in decades, the International Monetary Fund says.

The IMF described the global decline as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

It said the pandemic had plunged the world into a "crisis like no other".

The Fund added that a prolonged outbreak would test the ability of governments and central banks to control the crisis.

Gita Gopinath, the IMF's chief economist, said the crisis could knock $9 trillion (£7.2 trillion) off global GDP over the next two years.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52273988
 
Coronavirus: 'World faces worst recession since Great Depression'

The global economy will contract by 3% this year as countries around the world shrink at the fastest pace in decades, the International Monetary Fund says.

The IMF described the global decline as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

It said the pandemic had plunged the world into a "crisis like no other".

The Fund added that a prolonged outbreak would test the ability of governments and central banks to control the crisis.

Gita Gopinath, the IMF's chief economist, said the crisis could knock $9 trillion (£7.2 trillion) off global GDP over the next two years.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52273988

Very alarming article...
 
I just hope that there will be no worldwide economic depression. That can make the situation really worse.
 
I just hope that there will be no worldwide economic depression. That can make the situation really worse.

It will happen, 6 million losing their jobs in the USA alone so far. Travel completely gone for over a month in many places. Most sectors down on activity and still no plan in place to come out.

It’s a depression already, thanks to the reckless strategy by almost every country - this generation and the next will suffer in unimaginable ways.
 
It will happen, 6 million losing their jobs in the USA alone so far. Travel completely gone for over a month in many places. Most sectors down on activity and still no plan in place to come out.

It’s a depression already, thanks to the reckless strategy by almost every country - this generation and the next will suffer in unimaginable ways.

16-17 million Americans have lost their jobs sadly (or filed for unemployment). The 6 million figure was just for last week :/

The world will definitely be different. I don't foresee the V-shaped recovery our President keeps on talking about.

If this fiasco doesn't get him thrown out of office, don't know what will.

All this is gonna be dependent on how US, China, and Europe react after the pandemic.
 
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Pandemic to bring Asia's 2020 growth to halt for first time in 60 years, says IMF

Asia's economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented” toll on the region's service sector and major export destinations, the International Monetary Fund said, according to Reuters.

“These are highly uncertain and challenging times for the global economy. The Asia Pacific region is no exception," said Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department.

"The impact of the coronavirus on the region will be severe, across the board, and unprecedented."
 
U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020

Hundreds of thousands of children could die this year due to the global economic downturn sparked by the coronavirus pandemic and tens of millions more could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis, the United Nations warned on Thursday.

The world body also said in a risk report that nearly 369 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition have now been forced to look elsewhere.

“We must act now on each of these threats to our children,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “Leaders must do everything in their power to cushion the impact of the pandemic. What started as a public health emergency has snowballed into a formidable test for the global promise to leave no one behind.”

The new coronavirus, which causes the respiratory illness COVID-19, first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year. So far it has infected more than 2 million people - killing some 138,000 - in 213 countries and territories, according to a Reuters tally.

Compared with adults, children infected with the coronavirus are less likely to have symptoms and more likely to have a mild illness, U.S. and Chinese studies have found.

But the U.N. report warned that “economic hardship experienced by families as a result of the global economic downturn could result in an hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths in 2020, reversing the last 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality within a single year.”

With businesses shut down and more than a billion people told to stay home to avoid spreading the virus, the International Monetary Fund has predicted the world would this year suffer its steepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The United Nations said an estimated 42 million to 66 million children could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the coronavirus crisis this year, adding to the estimated 386 million children already in extreme poverty in 2019.

The U.N. report on children also said 188 countries have imposed countrywide school closures, affecting more than 1.5 billion children.

“The potential losses that may accrue in learning for today’s young generation, and for the development of their human capital, are hard to fathom,” it said. “More than two-thirds of countries have introduced a national distance learning platform, but among low-income countries the share is only 30 percent.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...f-thousands-of-children-in-2020-idUSKBN21Y2X7
 
Virgin Group boss Richard Branson has written an open letter to the company's employees warning Virgin Atlantic will collapse unless it receives government financial support, saying this is the "most challenging time" the company has faced in five decades of business.

He writes: "It is hard to find the words to convey what a devastating impact this pandemic continues to have on so many communities, businesses and people around the world. From a business perspective, the damage to many is unprecedented and the length of the disruption remains worryingly unknown."

It has been reported that the carrier is asking for up to £500m ($614M) of public money. Sir Richard writes: "This would be in the form of a commercial loan - it wouldn't be free money and the airline would pay it back."

He also defends himself from criticism of his request for help from taxpayers, saying: "I’ve seen lots of comments about my net worth – but that is calculated on the value of Virgin businesses around the world before this crisis, not sitting as cash in a bank account ready to withdraw."

He adds: "Much has been said about Virgin Atlantic employees taking a wage reduction for eight weeks, spread across six and a half months. This was a virtually unanimous decision made by Virgin Atlantic employees and their unions who collectively chose to do this to save as many jobs as possible – it was not forced upon them by management."
 
Some Conservative MPs have been raising concerns about the impact of the UK lockdown on businesses.

One of them, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, treasurer of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the UK needed to start a discussion "about how we get back to normality" or some businesses would have to cease trading.

In response, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said while some businesses were able to reopen with social distancing measures in place, the best way to protect the public and the NHS was to stay at home as much as possible.

“One of the most damaging things for our economy would be if we came out of lockdown too early," he said, adding that this would risk a second peak.
 
The huge economic impact of coronavirus lockdowns should come as no surprise to anyone.

This week though we had some stark reminders of just how much the pandemic is hitting the global economy.

Just yesterday we learnt that European business activity suffered a massive blow this month as government restrictions to slow the spread of the virus saw businesses close their doors.

The data was a grim reminder for the region's leaders as they started to discuss a huge rescue plan for the bloc.

We also had data showing that Japan's services sector contracted at a record pace in April, while factories also fell silent as large parts of the world's third-largest economy went into lockdown.

In the US it was confirmed that in just five weeks the world's biggest economy has seen the job gains of the last 11 years wiped out. That's as new jobless claims for last week totalled 4.4m - taking the total number of jobless claims since mid-March to 26.4m.

This morning, new figures showed UK retail sales fell a record 5.1% in March, the steepest sales fall since the Office for National Statistics (ONS) started collecting the data in 1996.

For now at least, we are likely to see much more of this kind of gloomy data as governments around the world continue to enforce stay-at-home orders.
 
Governments around the world: We're going to pump billions into the economy
The people: Wow - I'll get £1500 a month

Just a handful of people like me: Where is the money coming from and how is it going to be paid back

The reality is we're ****ed and the sheep won't even bat an eyelid because of the £1500 they'll get.
 
Let's take a deeper look at the economic impact of this pandemic.

According to an official preliminary estimate, the economies of the European Union contracted by 3.5% in the first three months of this year.

For context, that's the steepest decline in decades and is even worse than in the aftermath of the global financial crash in 2008.

The situation is even starker in the 19 countries that use the euro as their common currency - they've seen their economies shrink by 3.8%.

Looking at specific countries, France has registered its worst economic contraction since World War Two, with output falling by 5.8% in the first quarter. Spain has also seen its economy shrink by more than 5%.

This is all major indication of the huge economic toll this virus is taking on most European nations.

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Portugal's low-income households struggle to survive pandemic

LISBON (Reuters) - One in four Portuguese with a monthly household income of 650 euros ($705) or less have lost all their income because of the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, a study by the National School of Public Health showed on Saturday.

“Economic consequences of illness and confinement, such as unemployment or less income sources, can disproportionately affect the most vulnerable groups,” said the study, which surveyed around 4,000 people between April 25 and May 1.

About 22% of Portugal’s 4.9 million workers take home the minimum monthly wage of 635 euros, the lowest in western Europe.

Since the pandemic hit Portugal, 25% of people with a household income of up to 650 euros lost all their earnings, and only 6% of those with a monthly household income of 2,500 euros or more lost it all, the study showed.

“Preliminary data seems to indicate COVID-19 is noticeably unequal,” it said, adding that inequalities can increase people’s risk of being infected by the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus because they might have no option but to leave their homes to work.

“Work that cannot be done remotely or the need to continue to do small jobs to ensure short-term subsistence puts people at risk of greater exposure to infection,” it said.

Portugal, which has reported 27,268 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,114 deaths, started cautiously easing its lockdown restrictions on Monday.

Portugal’s economy is expected to contract by 8% this year, and unemployment to more than double to 13.9%, according to the International Monetary Fund.

A total of 91,500 people registered as unemployed between the beginning of Portugal’s lockdown on March 18 and the end of April, official figures showed, bringing total unemployment to just under 370,000 people.

($1 = 0.9225 euros)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ruggle-to-survive-pandemic-idUSKBN22L0JJ?il=0
 
EU will push to unlock borders as coronavirus ravages travel and tourism

The European Union executive will recommend on Wednesday that border restrictions be gradually lifted and travel stalled by the coronavirus pandemic allowed to restart in order to revive tourism, a major industry across the 27-country bloc.

Nearly all travel has been halted in Europe, a devastating blow for the tourism sector, which normally contributes almost one-tenth of the EU’s economic output.

Even within the Schengen area, comprising 26 EU and other European countries, and where frontiers are normally invisible, at least 17 countries have put emergency border controls in place to contain the virus.

The executive European Commission will make a slew of non-binding recommendations, including that targeted restrictions replace a general ban on travel, and that internal border checks slowly be lifted as the health situation improves.

The three Baltic states have already decided to reopen borders to each others’ citizens from May 15, creating a “travel bubble” within the EU as pandemic curbs are eased.

But the overall picture is not rosy, with even countries that are cautiously relaxing their strictest lockdown measures moving towards imposing a two-week quarantine period for travellers arriving from abroad.

The Commission estimates some 6.4 million jobs could be lost in tourism, which employed 12 million people before the crisis.

The sector suffered an 80-90% loss in turnover in the first quarter of 2020, four hospitality industry lobby groups said, and is braced for a disastrous summer season as the EU faces its deepest-ever recession.

EFFAT, FoodDrinkEurope, FoodServiceEurope and HOTREC said a significant share of the trillion-euro COVID economic recovery fund the bloc is discussing should go toward supporting their sector. They said they needed liquidity support and fiscal relief, as well as other resources to protect jobs.

The Commission will also defy calls from airlines and a group of EU member states led by Germany for the EU to suspend laws guaranteeing travellers a full cash refund for cancelled flights and trips.

It will instead recommend that cash-strapped airlines and travel companies make vouchers they are offering instead of cash more attractive, to convince grounded clients to accept them.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...irus-ravages-travel-and-tourism-idUSKBN22O38B
 
Global trade is forecast to fall by a record 27% in the second quarter of the year following a slump in the export of cars, machine parts and oil, reports Guardian economics writer Philip Inman.

The coronavirus pandemic has hit the supply and demand for products across the world leading to a severe decline in world trade, said Unctad, the United Nations organisation that tracks trade flows.

Almost every category of goods is expected to suffer a fall in trade over the coming months, adding to a 3% decline in the first quarter of the year.

Unctad said the data revealed the huge shock to the global economy from the Covid-19 pandemic.
 
Coronavirus could cost world economy $8.8 trillion

The coronavirus pandemic could cost the global economy between $5.8 trillion and $8.8 trillion (£4.7tn-£7.1tn) as measures to slow the spread of Covid-19 paralyse economic activity.

The latest estimate from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) equates to 6.4% - 9.7% of the world's economic output - and is more than double its prediction last month.

The ADB said the top end of the estimate was based on the assumption that curbs to movement and businesses operating would last six months.

The bottom end assumed the restrictions would remain in place for three months
 
Pandemic claims another retailer: 118-year-old J.C. Penney

The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the storied but troubled department store chain J.C. Penney into Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It is the fourth major retailer to meet that fate.

"The coronavirus pandemic has created unprecedented challenges for our families, our loved ones, our communities, and our country," said Penney’s CEO Jill Soltau in a statement. "As a result, the American retail industry has experienced a profoundly different new reality, requiring J.C. Penney to make difficult decisions in running our business to protect the safety of our associates and customers and the future of our company."

Penney is the biggest retailer to file for bankruptcy reorganisation since the pandemic and joins luxury department store chain Neiman Marcus, J.Crew and Stage Stores.
 
Governments around the world: We're going to pump billions into the economy
The people: Wow - I'll get £1500 a month

Just a handful of people like me: Where is the money coming from and how is it going to be paid back

The reality is we're ****ed and the sheep won't even bat an eyelid because of the £1500 they'll get.

Who doesn't like free money ?

That is why the biggest opposition to ending lockdowns came from people with guaranteed incomes - government workers and WFH types.
 
Who doesn't like free money ?

That is why the biggest opposition to ending lockdowns came from people with guaranteed incomes - government workers and WFH types.

It is not free money, we will have to pay many folds and have a struggling economy :/ We should in the UK wait another 2 weeks and then open up the economy. Lockdowns are not sustainable financially and mentally for people.
 
Oman says decision to liquidate glass point solar company comes after fall in oil, gas prices: agency

Oman’s decision to liquidate GlassPoint Solar company comes after the sharp fall in oil and gas prices caused by the global economic slowdown in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Oman news agency said, citing a statement from State General Reserve Fund.

Oman owns 31% of shares in GlassPoint Solar.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-fall-in-oil-gas-prices-agency-idUSKBN22S0VG
 
Who doesn't like free money ?

That is why the biggest opposition to ending lockdowns came from people with guaranteed incomes - government workers and WFH types.

Now we have teachers doing there best to not open schools again
 
World Bank names financial crisis expert Reinhart as chief economist

The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve.

World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement Reinhart’s experience and insights would prove invaluable as the coronavirus pandemic heaps economic pain on developing countries. She starts at the bank on June 15.

Reinhart, a professor at Harvard University, published a book entitled “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” together with economist Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University in 2009.

The book called for stricter regulations and an early-warning system to sound the alarm about financial bubbles, arguing that central bankers, policy makers and investors tended to ignore the telltale signs of a bubble.

In an article here she wrote on the pandemic in March, Reinhart said: "Clearly, this is a 'whatever-it-takes' moment for large-scale, outside-the-box fiscal and monetary policies."

Reinhart has a Ph.D. from Columbia University and teaches international economics at the Harvard Kennedy School. She has also worked at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the International Monetary Fund and the University of Maryland and the former Bear Stearns investment bank.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tweeted her congratulations, calling Reinhart “a great choice, especially at this time of crisis.”

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, in a separate tweet, added: “@carmenmreinhart is an extraordinary economist with deep expertise in crises, debt, capital flows, from a current and historical perspective.”

“She’s obviously well suited to the moment,” said Scott Morris, a former U.S. Treasury official who is now a senior fellow with the Centre for Global Development. “The Bank could be entering uncharted territory in the months ahead, so it’s good to have her intellectual firepower onboard.”

Reinhart’s expertise include international capital flows, and sovereign debt crises, the Bank said.

She replaces Pinelopi Goldberg, who left on March 1 after only 15 months on the job.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-w...einhart-as-chief-economist-idUKKBN22W2J2?il=0
 
In cash-rich Japan, a fifth of firms now see risk of insufficient capital

One in five Japanese companies are worried they may not have sufficient capital if the coronavirus crisis persists, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, underscoring how even some of the world’s biggest cash-hoarding firms are bracing for prolonged pain.

Some 14% of firms also said they would consider tapping a proposed financing scheme by the government and public institutions if market conditions remain severe, while more than half said they could consider it depending on circumstances.

“If the current situation lasts for more than a year, we may not be able to hold out,” a manager at a non-manufacturing company wrote in the poll, which was conducted from April 28 to May 15.

Japan plans to create schemes to inject capital into large and small companies suffering from the coronavirus pandemic, which has just pushed the world’s No.3 economy into recession, with a far deeper slump expected this quarter.

The move would mark an escalation in the government’s response to the crisis, which has so far focused on lending support for small firms.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week lifted a state of emergency for 39 prefectures, but in eight remaining areas including Tokyo, authorities are still asking people to stay at home and many businesses to close their doors.

Of the 21% of the firms who said they were worried about being short of capital, transport firms, utilities, retailers, steel and car manufacturers were among those most concerned, the survey showed.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...sk-of-insufficient-capital-idUKKBN22W3AD?il=0
 
The 102-year-old car rental firm Hertz has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US after its business all but vanished during the coronavirus pandemic, Reuters reports.

Hertz said in a US court filing on Friday that it had voluntarily filed for Chapter 11 reorganisation. Its international operating regions including Europe, Australia and New Zealand were not included in the US proceedings.

The firm, whose largest shareholder is the billionaire investor Carl Icahn, is reeling from government orders restricting travel. A large portion of Hertz’s revenue comes from car rentals at airports, which have all but dried up.

With nearly $19bn (£15.6bn) of debt and roughly 38,000 employees worldwide as of the end of 2019, Hertz is among the largest companies to be undone by the pandemic.
 
French public lender raises 4.2 billion euros for fund to boost French firms

Bpifrance has raised nearly 4.2 billion euros ($4.6 billion) for a new fund to shore up the capital base of big listed French companies, the French public investment bank said on Monday.

A first round of capital raising has yielded 3.2 billion euros from over 20 investors and another 1 billion euros in debt was raised for a fund known as LAC 1, Bpifrance said

French institutional investors include Covea, Axa (AXAF.PA), CNP Assurances, BNP Paribas Cardif (BNPP.PA), Generali (GASI.MI), Groupama, Groupe VYV, Societe Generale Assurances (SOGN.PA), the Caisse des Dépôts, Natixis (CNAT.PA), Aviva France (AV.L), Scor (SCOR.PA), and CCR, as well as telecoms operator Orange (ORAN.PA) and the Unibel and Financière Dassault family offices.

Bpifrance and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co had already indicated in February that they would invest one billion euros each in the fund.

Bpifrance has said it aims to eventually raise up to 10 billion euros for the fund, which aims to provide stable long-term investment in French companies adapting their business models or shareholder bases but also facing activist investor campaigns.

Bpifrance sought to drum up investment in the fund saying it would generate attractive yields by deploying capital in about 15 companies with a time horizon of 10 years.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-f...fund-to-boost-french-firms-idUKKBN231229?il=0
 
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Nissan is closing its factory in Barcelona with the loss of about 2,800 jobs, according to the Spanish government.

The move is part of a worldwide restructuring being unveiled by the Japanese carmaker.

The closure could cost Nissan, which has a major UK plant in Sunderland, up to €1bn (£898m), the government said.

Car sales have been hit by the virus pandemic, while manufacturers are investing heavily in electric vehicles.

Nissan is part of a three-way alliance with Renault and Mitsubishi, which are restructuring global operations to enable them to work more closely.

Even before the Covid-19 outbreak, Nissan's sales and profits had been falling, forcing it to pull back from the ambitious expansion plan of its now ousted leader Carlos Ghosn.

The carmaker's operating profit had tumbled for four years in a row as it chased market share, particularly in America, leading led to overcapacity at its car plants and steep discounts.

In April, Nissan said that it expected to post an annual operating loss of up to 45bn Yen (£340m).

The pandemic has added yet more pressure on the company to step up its cost-cutting efforts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52829348
 
US billionaires gained half a trillion dollars in wealth during outbreak. Even as more than 42 million people have signed on as unemployed in the US, the country’s billionaires have added half a trillion dollars to their combined wealth, according to a think tank report.
 
The coronavirus pandemic is a "devastating blow" for the world economy, according to World Bank President David Malpass.

Mr Malpass warned that billions of people would have their livelihoods affected by the pandemic.

He said that the economic fallout could last for a decade.

In May, Mr Malpass warned that 60 million people could be pushed into "extreme poverty" by the effects of coronavirus.

The World Bank defines "extreme poverty" as living on less than $1.90 (£1.55) per person per day.

However, in an interview on Friday Mr Malpass said that more than 60 million people could find themselves with less than £1 per day to live on.

Mr Malpass told BBC Radio 4's The World This Weekend: "It [coronavirus] has been a devastating blow for the economy.

"The combination of the pandemic itself, and the shutdowns, has meant billions of people whose livelihoods have been disrupted. That's concerning.

"Both the direct consequences, meaning lost income, but also then the health consequences, the social consequences, are really harsh."

Mr Malpass warned it's been those who can least afford it who've suffered the most.

"We can see that with the stock market in the US being relatively high, and yet people in the poor countries being not only unemployed, but unable to get any work even in the informal sector. And that's going to have consequences for a decade."

The World Bank, along with its counterparts, has been providing support to the worst affected countries, but says much more is needed.

It is calling on commercial lenders such as banks and pension funds to offer debt relief to poor countries.

He would also like them to make the terms of their loans clearer, so other investors are more confident about putting money into those economies.

Targeted government support and measures to shore up the private sector are also vital to rebuild economies, the World Bank argues.

Investment and support would create jobs in areas like manufacturing, to replace those in the worst affected sectors, such as tourism, which may have been permanently lost.

'Tensions and inequality'
Mr Malpass admits the damage to global trade, and inclinations to bring supply chains closer to home or erect trade barriers, are a challenge.

"When trade is reduced, that creates its own set of tensions and inequality... I'm sure [the global economy] will be interconnected in the future, maybe less than it was pre-COVID."

But ultimately, Mr Malpass said the "catastrophe" could be overcome, and that people were "flexible, they're resilient" .

"I think it's possible to find paths, it's hard work for countries and governments to do that.

"But we can encourage that effort... I'm an optimist, over the long run, that human nature is strong, and innovation is real. The world is moving fast and connectivity... has never been higher. And so that gives hope for the future."

However, he admits the challenge is getting the right plans in place at the right time - and in the meantime, the pain could be considerable.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52939846
 
UK firms will need new equity to cope with COVID debt surge: TheCityUK

About a third of the debt being taken on by British companies under the government’s emergency coronavirus lending programmes could be unsustainable, raising the need for fresh capital from new investors, a finance industry body said on Sunday.

TheCityUK said that by the end of March 2021, companies might be struggling to meet the financing costs of up to 36 billion pounds ($45.66 billion) of debt under the COVID-19 credit schemes that carry government guarantees for banks lending to firms.

That was on top of about 60 billion to 70 billion pounds of existing debt that was also likely to be straining borrowers.

The sectors most exposed were property, accommodation and food services and construction, with small and medium-sized firms accounting for about half the total, TheCityUK said.

“Lifting the debt burden from the shoulders of otherwise viable businesses will be essential to supporting a robust and sustainable economic recovery,” Miles Celic, the group’s chief executive, said in a statement.

“However, this is a huge and complicated challenge. It is already clear that there won’t be a one-size-fits-all solution.”

Private-sector capital could help plug the expected equity shortfall with options including an enhanced role for private equity and the unlocking of investment from British insurers and pension funds. But gaps might remain for the public sector.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who previously warned of the possible need for a state role to help companies cope with their higher borrowing, said the COVID-19 pandemic would leave many firms in need of recapitalisation.

“How successful this recapitalisation is will have a major impact on the sustainability and effectiveness of the economic recovery – and, therefore, the number of jobs the economy can support,” he said on Twitter.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-h...with-covid-debt-surge-thecityuk-idUKKBN23E0V2
 
How Covid-19 will hit major economies

822f51e8-4b83-4085-8619-92696cc18468.png


The coronavirus outbreak and measures to curb it will have "dire" economic consequences, a report warns.

The forecast, by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, says global output could shrink by 7.6% over this year.

This chart (above) plots how the agency expects gross domestic product (GDP) to fall for developed nations.

The worst hit? That's expected to be the UK, the report said.

Britain's economy is likely to slump by 11.5% in 2020, the report said. But it warned it could fall by 14% If there were a second peak in the pandemic.
 

An imp video to understand why rich will get even richer after pandemic and why it didn't affect the stocks at all as such.

This video doesn't cover what Amazon has been able to do and with today's fed news I'm sure many big businesses in USA would do the same borrow at lower rates.


Amazon raised $10 billion in the bond markets, including $1 billion of debt yielding just 0.4% — reportedly the lowest rate in the history of US corporate bonds (AMZN)


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/amazon-raised-10-billion-through-record-low-borrowing-costs-2020-6-1029272938
 
Starbucks forecasts over $2 billion drop in quarterly income as COVID-19 hits

Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O) said on Wednesday it expects current-quarter operating income to plunge by up to $2.2 billion (1.7 billion pounds), and sales to decline for the rest of the year even as nearly all its cafes have reopened following easing of coronavirus lockdowns.

The company said it would permanently close about 400 stores in the Americas over the next 18 months and cut its planned new store openings by half to about 300 this fiscal year, signifying the lasting impact of the pandemic.

The world’s largest coffee chain’s shares fell nearly 4%, as it also forecast a bigger-than-expected current-quarter loss and an over $3 billion fall in revenue.

With the COVID-19 pandemic effectively putting a stop to dining out in most of the United States for weeks, Starbucks was forced to convert its cafes to pick-up or drive-through joints only.

The company said it would now speed up the opening of pick-up only stores, especially in urban areas, as health experts advise people to stick with social-distancing norms.

Starbucks projected an adjusted loss of about 55 cents to 70 cents per share for its third quarter ending in June, and said it expects U.S. same-store sales to drop by up to 45%. Analysts were expecting a third-quarter loss of 16 cents per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

However, declines are expected to slow towards the end of the year.

The company expects same-store sales in China to drop by 20% to 25%, slightly more optimistic than an earlier forecast of 25% to 35% fall. (bit.ly/37gysi0)

Starbucks said it expects current quarter operating income decline between $2 billion to $2.2 billion. It reported an operating income of $1.07 billion in the third quarter of last year.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-s...ly-income-as-covid-19-hits-idUKKBN23H1Z3?il=0
 
The UK's economy shrank by 20.4% in April - the largest monthly contraction on record - as the UK spent its first full month in lockdown.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the "historic" fall affected virtually all areas of activity.

The contraction is three times greater than the decline seen during the whole of the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn.

But analysts said April was likely to be the worst month, as the government began easing the lockdown in May.

The ONS also published figures for the three months from February to April, which showed a decline of 10.4%.

"April's fall in GDP is the biggest the UK has ever seen, more than three times larger than last month and almost 10 times larger than the steepest pre-Covid-19 fall," said Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician for economic statistics at the ONS.

"In April, the economy was around 25% smaller than in February.

"Virtually all areas of the economy were hit, with pubs, education, health and car sales all giving the biggest contributions to this historic fall."

Carmakers and housebuilders were particularly badly hit, Mr Athow added.

However, he told the BBC's Today programme: "It's highly likely April will be the low point.

"Our own surveys and wider indicators have suggested a pick-up in economy activity, but I think it's really too early to know how quickly economic activity will recover in the coming months."

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: "In line with many other economies around the world, coronavirus is having a severe impact on our economy.

"The lifelines we've provided with our furlough scheme, grants, loans and tax cuts have protected thousands of businesses and millions of jobs - giving us the best chance of recovering quickly as the economy reopens.

"We've set out our plan to gradually and safely reopen the economy. Next week, more shops on the High Street will be able to open again as we start to get our lives a little bit more back to normal."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53019360
 
Jaguar Land Rover will shed up to 1,100 agency staff, or contractors, across the UK as part of a "transformation programme".

It comes as Britain's biggest carmaker reported a £501m loss in its fourth quarter after a 31% drop in sales, as showrooms and factories across the world closed because of the pandemic.

A spokesman for the company said: "Through its ongoing transformation programme, Jaguar Land Rover is taking action to optimise performance and achieve further operational efficiencies to enable sustainable growth and safeguard the long-term success of our business.

"Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the company has taken the difficult decision to reduce the number of contract-agency employees in its manufacturing plants over the coming months."

The jobs will be cut from across the business's UK manufacturing sites, a process that will begin at the end of July and last through the year.

The group currently has a UK workforce of around 32,000 and the cuts come after the loss of around 5,000 roles announced late last year.

Over recent weeks, other carmakers including Bentley and Aston Martin have had to cut jobs in an effort to survive the economic consequences of the virus pandemic.

JLR is reopening its UK and European factories but many are only running at low capacity. The Castle Bromwich Jaguar plant is still closed.

https://news.sky.com/story/jaguar-land-rover-to-cut-1-100-jobs-in-the-uk-12007390
 
UK government borrowing hits record

More now on the impact the coronavirus pandemic is having on the UK economy: The latest figures show that government borrowing hit a record monthly high of £55.2bn in May.

The Office for National Statistics had previously said April's spending was the highest since records began in 1993, but revised back the figure from £62bn to £48.5bn.

April's figure was revised after the government received more from taxes and National Insurance and spent less than thought on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.
 
'Difficult times ahead' for UK economy, says PM

Earlier, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was asked about the news that the country's debt was now larger than the size of its economy for the first time since 1963.

It comes after government borrowing surged to help tackle the coronavirus pandemic.

Mr Johnson said: "It matters hugely but we will manage our finances as sensibly and prudently as we can.

"What I will say is I think the British economy is remarkably resilient, we will come out of this well in the end but there will be some difficult times ahead."

He added: "There has been a massive lack of economic activity for a very long time - of course that is going to be a painful and expensive to make up. But we are a very creative and dynamic society, we will come back."
 
IMF says decline in global growth worse than forecast

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global growth forecast for this year and next in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

It now predicts a decline of almost 5% in 2020, substantially worse than its forecast only 10 weeks ago in April.

The UK economy is expected to contract more than 10% this year, followed by a partial recovery in 2021.

That would be one of the most severe declines, although not as deep as forecast for Italy, France or Spain.

The IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, had already warned that the April forecast had been overtaken by events, and that the likely path of the global economy was looking worse.

That is reflected in the new projections for both the world and the British economy. The previous April forecasts were a 6.5% decline for the UK and 3% for the world.

Unusual

The gloomier outlook partly reflects the fact that data since April have pointed to a sharper downturn than the earlier forecast envisaged.

The IMF how expects a larger hit to consumer spending. The report points out something that is unusual about this downturn.

Usually people dip into savings, or get help from family and welfare systems to reduce the fluctuations in their spending. Consumer spending usually takes a much smaller hit in a downturn than business investment.

But this time, lockdowns and voluntary social distancing by people who are wary of exposing themselves to infection risks have hit demand.

The IMF also expects people to do more "precautionary saving", reducing their consumption because of the uncertain outlook ahead.

The report also warns there is likely to be more economic "scarring'". More firms going out of business and people being unemployed for longer may mean that it is harder for economic activity to bounce back as quickly as hoped.

There is also a danger that, for firms that do survive, their efficiency is likely to be in undermined by the steps they take to improve safety and hygiene - to reduce the risk of workplace transition of the coronavirus.

Dramatic slowdown

The biggest contractions in economic activity envisaged by the IMF this year are in developed economies particularly in Europe. The UK is likely to be one of the deepest.

The new forecast does predict the UK's growth figure next will be larger than in the April forecast. But that is more than fully offset by this year's deeper decline. Overall, the new IMF forecast implies the British economy in 2022 would be smaller than was implied by the April forecast.

For all the 16 individual countries for which the IMF gives specific forecasts, there is a downgrade for this year compared with the April projection.

The largest change was for India, where the IMF previously predicted much slower growth, but growth nonetheless. Now the forecast is a sharp 4.5% contraction.

For just one of those 16 countries, the IMF does still see growth this year. That is China, but at 1% that still represents a dramatic slowdown.

The IMF's new assessment underlines once again the severe economic damage being wrought by the pandemic and the response to it.

The predicted declines in activity are however not quite as severe as what was forecast earlier this month by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53164304
 
IMF global forecast: Key numbers

Earlier this hour we told you that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had lowered its global growth forecast for this year and next in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

The IMF now expects a larger hit to consumer spending. The report points out something that is unusual about this downturn, our economics correspondent Andrew Walker says.

Usually people dip into savings, or get help from family and welfare systems to reduce the fluctuations in their spending. Consumer spending usually takes a much smaller hit in a downturn than business investment.

But this time, lockdowns and voluntary social distancing by people who are wary of exposing themselves to infection risks have hit demand, our correspondent adds.

Here are some of the predictions:

UK: -10.2% this year; +6.3% in 2021
US: -8% this year; +4.8% in 2021
Italy and Spain: -12.8% each this year; +6.3% in 2021
Russia: -6.6% this year; +4.1% in 2021
China: +1% this year; +8.2% in 2021
India: -4.5% this year; +6% in 2021
Brazil: -9.1% this year; +3.6% in 2021

You can find the full IMF report here: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020
 
Coronavirus: UK economy hit by worst contraction in 41 years

The UK economy shrank more than first thought between January and March, contracting 2.2% in the joint largest fall since 1979, official figures show.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised down its previous estimate of a 2% contraction, with all the main economic sectors dropping.

There was a significant economic impact in March, as the coronavirus pandemic began to have an effect.

The data comes as the prime minister set out a post-lockdown recovery plan.

Boris Johnson said in a speech in Dudley, in the West Midlands, that there would be investment in infrastructure and schools.

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Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53231851
 
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