9 tests were won and 8 lost by teams bowling first in India in the last 5 years.
19 tests were won and 13 lost by teams bowling first in India in the last 10 years.
Eng won last series in India despite winning only one toss in series( if I recall it right)
I am not sure why majority think that batting first gives a huge advantage in India. Results doesn't support that theory. Even if you go back to 50s and calculate, there is no huge advantage as far as result goes for a team batting first in India. I will surely prefer to bat first in India in most cases, but advantage is not as huge as most posters think.
I don't know how much track will turn, but if turns enough then Eng will lose. We saw how much Eng likes to bat on turning tracks.
Actually, it's a bit more complicated than straight summary. IND is a big country with diverse climate & weather in different parts.
Among major Indian venues, Test matches in Delhi starts early (normally 9:30 AM), with early finish, particularly if the match is between NOV to early FEB. Early start, smog, over night dew ... made it really difficult to bat in 1st session in Delhi - also, there 2nd factor is playing time; now days, ICC has done great to ensure maximum overs, but in olden days, whenever team was in trouble they would have wasted times; therefore in many cases, teams batting first had the advantage, but just not enough time to force result. All these factors made Delhi, statistically a better venue to bowl first. Something similar you can say about Kolkata (Calcutta) as well - hence these 2 major venues, matches are more open.
In last few years, almost every touring team are poor - regardless of batting first or second, they would have lost in IND. For example, take AUS - they lost 6-0 after, 6 toss wins & batting 1st 5 times. Same goes for WI, SRL & NZ as well - bat first or bowl first, they would have lost either way.
You have to look it beyond stats - IND is damn good at home, always had been a hard nut to beat at home, even in 50s. You can't make any judgement with just win/loss record in IND - because a lot of times, IND would have won either way, just happens to be after winning toss. I see it in a different way - how many times, touring teams has won in IND bowling first or have avoided defeat batting 2nd & what's the result of close encounters.
I am not going to CI, may be when I get time, can write on this, but from my memory, this is summary -
PAK - won 4 Tests in IND; all 4 batting 1st. Lost 7 (?) - 5 of them batting 1st; 2 batting 2nd, both at Delhi.
AUS - I believe they have won 2 (58)+3 (69)+1 (99) 1 (2002)+ 2 (2005) = 9 Tests, I believe 7 of them batting 1st. One at Bangalore (99) & other can't recall, probably Calcutta. They have lost several in recent times, but before 2005, they lost most matches batting 2nd (including the Eden one after following on) & they lost a Test in 1996, batting first - again at Delhi.
WI - Result against them is always misleading - that outstanding WI side from 70s to 90s were beyond Toss; but it happens to be in 1988 WI chased at Delhi (again, one of the best ever chases), lost at Chennai (bating 2nd). In last century, last WI major tour was 1994 - it ended 1-1, both times to tam batting 1st. In last 15 years, I don't think it matters if WI bats 1st or 2nd.
NZ - If I can recall correctly, Kiwis had won 2 Tests in IND 1969 & 1988 - both times batting 1st. They almost won a Test in 1955, again batting 1st.
ENG - one of the biggest surprise - they won few Tests bowling 1st. Can't recall all, for so many matches, but the summary is - Won in 1971 & 1976 batting 2nd, both times at Eden (in 71, won 3-1; other 2 batting 1st, but not sure, lost while chasing). In 1976, probably Lever won a Test at Delhi bowling 1st with prodigious swing (thanks to Vaseline) - need to check. The Jubilee Test was won batting 2nd - in a match that had one player with 13 wickets & a hundred. In 1985, ENG won 2-1; Chennai one was after batting 2nd (Foster got unreal movement, but I won't say how), rest 2 sides batting 1st won. After that, ENG won only 3 Tests since - one at Mumbai (batting first), then the 2 in last series, which had an unreal innings at Mumbai' other one at Eden in winter. Probably 1961 series was 2-1 to the host with a chasing win at Delhi. In 1952, Mankar spun IND to their 1st win.
SAF - the encounters are more recent, when SAF was a great team for most part. They won a Test at Eden '96, batting 1st; but lost both times batting 2nd (Can't recall the Mumbai one), then again at Kanpur & Motera (Ahmedabad). SAF's best 2 performance was at Bangalore & Motera, when the pacers blew the Indians on Day 1 & batsmen put ~600ish totals. Stills, it's more losses batting 2nd than batting 1st.
Records against SRL & ZIM hardly matters - they would have hardly won batting 1st or 2nd.
I tried to put a perspective of the scenario, beyond stats. You can check in details by going series by Series. It's really difficult for touring sides in IND batting 2nd. Few matches that were won batting 2nd had a clear pattern - visitors blew Indian 1st innings on 1st 2 mornings of the Test. I don't think, any team apart from PAK has much chance of winning a Test in IND chasing 4th.
