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Predict the result of the second Test between India and England

sensible-indian-fan

sensible-indian-fan

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Let's get this rolling.

Just make your prediction

1. If England bat first
2. If India bat first

My prediction.

If England bat first - India win but with lots of efforts.
If India bat first - India win with not so much efforts.

Arrogant much?

Maybe.

Especially considering the fact that England is a team that is VERY MUCH capable of winning the next test due to their fighting spirit.

But still...gonna go with what's more logical.

What's your prediction guys?
 
I agree

Also pitch is expected to turn
 
Whoever bats first will win.

The English spinners are good enough to take 20 wickets on a turner provided their batsmen put up decent scores on the board.
 
Saw the photo of the pitch on twitter... It's going to turn from the ball one.. So I'm going with India here :)
 
Bat first and win...

Will lose if bat second...

Spin will come into play on day two
 
sensible-indian-fan said:
Let's get this rolling.

Just make your prediction

1. If England bat first
2. If India bat first

My prediction.

If England bat first - India win but with lots of efforts.
If India bat first - India win with not so much efforts.

Arrogant much?

Maybe.

Especially considering the fact that England is a team that is VERY MUCH capable of winning the next test due to their fighting spirit.

But still...gonna go with what's more logical.

What's your prediction guys?
Click to expand...

Haven't seen the wicket, but I tend to agree with you, if the wicket is a rank turner from Day 1. That'll normalize the Toss to a greater extent & the side with better resources should win. But, on a standard wicket, like the Rajkot one - which was a perfect result wicket for 2 teams willing for a result, it'll be a close match. Also, we are denying the wonderful job done by Pujara-Vijay, Cook (& the fielders of both side) to end that match in draw.

I'll wait till I see the wicket on match day as I am really confused. If the wicket is anything like last ODI - trust me, any team batting 2nd would struggle in that wicket against Poms. Again, the last FC match there had about 23-25 of 30 wickets taken by pacers.

In any case, I don't think it'll be easy for IND, if ENG bats first & if there is same amount of grass like the last FC match, won't be easy batting first or 2nd.
 
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MMHS said:
Haven't seen the wicket, but I tend to agree with you, if the wicket is a rank turner from Day 1. That'll normalize the Toss to a greater extent & the side with better resources should win. But, on a standard wicket, like the Rajkot one - which was a perfect result wicket for 2 teams willing for a result, it'll be a close match. Also, we are denying the wonderful job done by Pujara-Vijay, Cook (& the fielders of both side) to end that match in draw.

I'll wait till I see the wicket on match day as I am really confused. If the wicket is anything like last ODI - trust me, any team batting 2nd would struggle in that wicket against Poms. Again, the last FC match there had about 23-25 of 30 wickets taken by pacers.

In any case, I don't think it'll be easy for IND, if ENG bats first & if there is same amount of grass like the last FC match, won't be easy batting first or 2nd.
Click to expand...

This is the pitch

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vizag pitch. 2nd Test starts tomorrow, 3.30am Sky Sports 2. <a href="https://t.co/YrJfTl5LCv">pic.twitter.com/YrJfTl5LCv</a></p>— Sky Sports Cricket&#55356;&#57295; (@SkyCricket) <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyCricket/status/798781924659511296">November 16, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I think the match result can easily be predicted on 1 factor (which will over-rule all other factors 9/10 times in Asia)....basically how Ashwin bowls. If he does well, he will somehow pull us through whether we win or lose the toss.

But I am not sure whether he would have sorted out his issues in 4 days. Let's hope he has.

Plus if Karun Nair is picked (who I heard is the best spin player in India...or atleast one of the best), we will have 2 MORE proper bats this time around compared to last game.

So that would be a nice cushion.
 
sensible-indian-fan said:
This is the pitch

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vizag pitch. 2nd Test starts tomorrow, 3.30am Sky Sports 2. <a href="https://t.co/YrJfTl5LCv">pic.twitter.com/YrJfTl5LCv</a></p>— Sky Sports Cricket�� (@SkyCricket) <a href="https://twitter.com/SkyCricket/status/798781924659511296">November 16, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I think the match result can easily be predicted on 1 factor (which will over-rule all other factors 9/10 times in Asia)....basically how Ashwin bowls. If he does well, he will somehow pull us through whether we win or lose the toss.

But I am not sure whether he would have sorted out his issues in 4 days. Let's hope he has.

Plus if Karun Nair is picked (who I heard is the best spin player in India...or atleast one of the best), we will have 2 MORE proper bats this time around compared to last game.

So that would be a nice cushion.
Click to expand...

I am not sure how old this picture is (if more than 3 days than lots can be changed), but if the Test starts on this surface with proper rolling & watering, I can tell you that it'll be a very good Test wicket for 5 days with pacers coming in the game with new ball. That Rajkot wicket had barren patch exactly on spinner's length, which took just one more day to break. I think, this wicket will have more bounce & a bit pace - if they keep the grass, 3 Pom pacer will come in the game, if they take out the grass, still reverse swing will come in to the game.

Only way IND can have a significant advantage, if they stop watering for 3 days, take every bit of grass out, beck in the sun & roll heavy.

But honestly, I am impressed with the first look of the wicket - faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar better than the dross at UAE. Whatever you do, you can't make a dead slow, dying rubbish of this surface - ball will come on to bat nicely at a good height & pace - how much turn, seem & uneven bounce will be there depends on the efforts of groundsman after this picture was taken.
 
MMHS said:
I am not sure how old this picture is (if more than 3 days than lots can be changed), but if the Test starts on this surface with proper rolling & watering, I can tell you that it'll be a very good Test wicket for 5 days with pacers coming in the game with new ball. That Rajkot wicket had barren patch exactly on spinner's length, which took just one more day to break. I think, this wicket will have more bounce & a bit pace - if they keep the grass, 3 Pom pacer will come in the game, if they take out the grass, still reverse swing will come in to the game.

Only way IND can have a significant advantage, if they stop watering for 3 days, take every bit of grass out, beck in the sun & roll heavy.

But honestly, I am impressed with the first look of the wicket - faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar better than the dross at UAE. Whatever you do, you can't make a dead slow, dying rubbish of this surface - ball will come on to bat nicely at a good height & pace - how much turn, seem & uneven bounce will be there depends on the efforts of groundsman after this picture was taken.
Click to expand...

Rajkot spun after a couple of days but it was super slow spin (with occasional danger balls) while majority of the balls didn't spin much.

The kind of track where domestic teams rack up high scoring draws.

Ideal track where good spinners will shine (not in terms of stats but impact) and bad spinners will struggle. So I was very disappointed with our spinners. Could have done better as I believe Indian spinners are better than what they performed there.

The only bowler who got dangerous turn (maybe a little bit quicker turn off the surface atleast to my eyes) was Rashid. He ended up with 7 wickets and to be honest, if we were a bit careful (Vijay tired dismissal first innings, Pujara DRS, Saha return)...even he would have gone for just 4 wickets in that test. But he was the best spinner in that game (quality wise) even though he was expensive.

Rajkot was not an easy pitch to bowl but a good pitch to show your skills as a bowler.

--

Personally I don't want a rank turner in Vizag. Just a good track where both teams have equal chances whether they win or lose the toss (unlike Rajkot).

Is that possible?
 
If it is a result orientated pitch, then I have a feeling England will win this: they are on high confidence after a fantastic performance in the 1st test.
 
If India selects Karun Nair, as it is confirmed that KL Rahul will be opening tomorrow, we will have some serious batting lineup with Jadeja coming at no.9. India can't lose the match then. I hope Kohli is pragmatic enough to go with 6 specialist batsmen this time around.
 
sensible-indian-fan said:
Rajkot spun after a couple of days but it was super slow spin (with occasional danger balls) while majority of the balls didn't spin much.

The kind of track where domestic teams rack up high scoring draws.

Ideal track where good spinners will shine (not in terms of stats but impact) and bad spinners will struggle. So I was very disappointed with our spinners. Could have done better as I believe Indian spinners are better than what they performed there.

The only bowler who got dangerous turn (maybe a little bit quicker turn off the surface atleast to my eyes) was Rashid. He ended up with 7 wickets and to be honest, if we were a bit careful (Vijay tired dismissal first innings, Pujara DRS, Saha return)...even he would have gone for just 4 wickets in that test. But he was the best spinner in that game (quality wise) even though he was expensive.

Rajkot was not an easy pitch to bowl but a good pitch to show your skills as a bowler.

--

Personally I don't want a rank turner in Vizag. Just a good track where both teams have equal chances whether they win or lose the toss (unlike Rajkot).

Is that possible?
Click to expand...

Possible - it they keep it exactly same with light rollers & sprinkle for next 2/3 days.

The color of the tack is like old Wankhade track, with a bit of cracks on it. There is a little live green patch all across the track, which indicates that there is deep rooted grass on the track. I think, this wicket will be fastest on Day 2 & best for batting on Day 2 Tea, 3 & till 4 lunch (similar to recent WACA wicket with less bounce) - therefore bat or bowl first, teams are likely to have one good batting innings & one good bowling innings. Obviously team with better spin attack would like to bowl last here.

Ideally, in a even contest with teams going with 4.5 bowlers; there is hardly anything in the toss if teams can play properly. Batting first helps always, but it won't, if you go to lunch at 90/4 on Day 1, on this track, as you can be all-out for 312 by 1st hour of Day 2 - then the best 6 sessions for batting for the team batting 2nd. Similarly, getting a side all-out for 170 on Day 1 won't help, if you don't bat well on 2nd morning - a lead of 86 (say 256 all-out) won't help much as side batting first then will bat 2nd time for 4/5 session when the wicket will be best for batting - they can put 450 easily for a target of 365.

Ideally, I would have liked my team to go with specialist 2 pacers & 2 spinners, backed by an all-rounder & a part-timer; win toss; bat first & bat positively for 4.75 sessions to post 450 & start bowling 30 minutes before Tea on Day 2. That'll give 3 awkward period for the batting team, either side of tea & in last 30 minutes, followed by a morning spell of duel (Spin-Pace combination) with 40 overs old ball on 3rd morning. If the batting side plays really well & put 575 - they deserve to win; otherwise I'll look for setting a target of around 319 in last 105 overs.
 
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9 tests were won and 8 lost by teams bowling first in India in the last 5 years.
19 tests were won and 13 lost by teams bowling first in India in the last 10 years.
Eng won last series in India despite winning only one toss in series( if I recall it right)

I am not sure why majority think that batting first gives a huge advantage in India. Results doesn't support that theory. Even if you go back to 50s and calculate, there is no huge advantage as far as result goes for a team batting first in India. I will surely prefer to bat first in India in most cases, but advantage is not as huge as most posters think.

I don't know how much track will turn, but if turns enough then Eng will lose. We saw how much Eng likes to bat on turning tracks.
 
Whichever team bats first will win this test match, if this pitch does turn from lunch on day two.
 
Buffet said:
How many toss Eng won in their last series in India? I think they won only one toss.
Click to expand...

Two matches they won, they batted 2nd

but it only applies when India bats first and wins matches.. It's not convenient to take it into account when they win even after batting 2nd.
 
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Going to copy-paste [MENTION=137842]OS_89[/MENTION] 's post :

"Since 2010, India have played 30 tests at home.

They've won the toss in 14 of those. Out of these 14 where they've won the toss, India won 10 tests, lost 2 and drew 2

They've lost the toss 16 . Out of these 16, India won 11 tests, drew 4 and lost 1."


So pretty clearly, toss practice rather than match practice decides the outcome in India..
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Buffet said:
9 tests were won and 8 lost by teams bowling first in India in the last 5 years.
19 tests were won and 13 lost by teams bowling first in India in the last 10 years.
Eng won last series in India despite winning only one toss in series( if I recall it right)

I am not sure why majority think that batting first gives a huge advantage in India. Results doesn't support that theory. Even if you go back to 50s and calculate, there is no huge advantage as far as result goes for a team batting first in India. I will surely prefer to bat first in India in most cases, but advantage is not as huge as most posters think.

I don't know how much track will turn, but if turns enough then Eng will lose. We saw how much Eng likes to bat on turning tracks.
Click to expand...

Actually, it's a bit more complicated than straight summary. IND is a big country with diverse climate & weather in different parts.

Among major Indian venues, Test matches in Delhi starts early (normally 9:30 AM), with early finish, particularly if the match is between NOV to early FEB. Early start, smog, over night dew ... made it really difficult to bat in 1st session in Delhi - also, there 2nd factor is playing time; now days, ICC has done great to ensure maximum overs, but in olden days, whenever team was in trouble they would have wasted times; therefore in many cases, teams batting first had the advantage, but just not enough time to force result. All these factors made Delhi, statistically a better venue to bowl first. Something similar you can say about Kolkata (Calcutta) as well - hence these 2 major venues, matches are more open.

In last few years, almost every touring team are poor - regardless of batting first or second, they would have lost in IND. For example, take AUS - they lost 6-0 after, 6 toss wins & batting 1st 5 times. Same goes for WI, SRL & NZ as well - bat first or bowl first, they would have lost either way.

You have to look it beyond stats - IND is damn good at home, always had been a hard nut to beat at home, even in 50s. You can't make any judgement with just win/loss record in IND - because a lot of times, IND would have won either way, just happens to be after winning toss. I see it in a different way - how many times, touring teams has won in IND bowling first or have avoided defeat batting 2nd & what's the result of close encounters.

I am not going to CI, may be when I get time, can write on this, but from my memory, this is summary -

PAK - won 4 Tests in IND; all 4 batting 1st. Lost 7 (?) - 5 of them batting 1st; 2 batting 2nd, both at Delhi.
AUS - I believe they have won 2 (58)+3 (69)+1 (99) 1 (2002)+ 2 (2005) = 9 Tests, I believe 7 of them batting 1st. One at Bangalore (99) & other can't recall, probably Calcutta. They have lost several in recent times, but before 2005, they lost most matches batting 2nd (including the Eden one after following on) & they lost a Test in 1996, batting first - again at Delhi.


WI - Result against them is always misleading - that outstanding WI side from 70s to 90s were beyond Toss; but it happens to be in 1988 WI chased at Delhi (again, one of the best ever chases), lost at Chennai (bating 2nd). In last century, last WI major tour was 1994 - it ended 1-1, both times to tam batting 1st. In last 15 years, I don't think it matters if WI bats 1st or 2nd.

NZ - If I can recall correctly, Kiwis had won 2 Tests in IND 1969 & 1988 - both times batting 1st. They almost won a Test in 1955, again batting 1st.

ENG - one of the biggest surprise - they won few Tests bowling 1st. Can't recall all, for so many matches, but the summary is - Won in 1971 & 1976 batting 2nd, both times at Eden (in 71, won 3-1; other 2 batting 1st, but not sure, lost while chasing). In 1976, probably Lever won a Test at Delhi bowling 1st with prodigious swing (thanks to Vaseline) - need to check. The Jubilee Test was won batting 2nd - in a match that had one player with 13 wickets & a hundred. In 1985, ENG won 2-1; Chennai one was after batting 2nd (Foster got unreal movement, but I won't say how), rest 2 sides batting 1st won. After that, ENG won only 3 Tests since - one at Mumbai (batting first), then the 2 in last series, which had an unreal innings at Mumbai' other one at Eden in winter. Probably 1961 series was 2-1 to the host with a chasing win at Delhi. In 1952, Mankar spun IND to their 1st win.

SAF - the encounters are more recent, when SAF was a great team for most part. They won a Test at Eden '96, batting 1st; but lost both times batting 2nd (Can't recall the Mumbai one), then again at Kanpur & Motera (Ahmedabad). SAF's best 2 performance was at Bangalore & Motera, when the pacers blew the Indians on Day 1 & batsmen put ~600ish totals. Stills, it's more losses batting 2nd than batting 1st.

Records against SRL & ZIM hardly matters - they would have hardly won batting 1st or 2nd.


I tried to put a perspective of the scenario, beyond stats. You can check in details by going series by Series. It's really difficult for touring sides in IND batting 2nd. Few matches that were won batting 2nd had a clear pattern - visitors blew Indian 1st innings on 1st 2 mornings of the Test. I don't think, any team apart from PAK has much chance of winning a Test in IND chasing 4th.
 
Buffet said:
9 tests were won and 8 lost by teams bowling first in India in the last 5 years.
19 tests were won and 13 lost by teams bowling first in India in the last 10 years.
Eng won last series in India despite winning only one toss in series( if I recall it right)

I am not sure why majority think that batting first gives a huge advantage in India. Results doesn't support that theory. Even if you go back to 50s and calculate, there is no huge advantage as far as result goes for a team batting first in India. I will surely prefer to bat first in India in most cases, but advantage is not as huge as most posters think.

I don't know how much track will turn, but if turns enough then Eng will lose. We saw how much Eng likes to bat on turning tracks.
Click to expand...

Chrish said:
Only toss decides the outcome of matches in India.. Here is a glaring proof that puts all debates to end:

http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/engine/series/598810.html
Click to expand...

Buffet said:
How many toss Eng won in their last series in India? I think they won only one toss.
Click to expand...

Chrish said:
Two matches they won, they batted 2nd

but it only applies when India bats first and wins matches.. It's not convenient to take it into account when they win even after batting 2nd.
Click to expand...

Chrish said:
Going to copy-paste [MENTION=137842]OS_89[/MENTION] 's post from another forum:

"Since 2010, India have played 30 tests at home.

They've won the toss in 14 of those. Out of these 14 where they've won the toss, India won 10 tests, lost 2 and drew 2

They've lost the toss 16 . Out of these 16, India won 11 tests, drew 4 and lost 1."


So pretty clearly, toss practice rather than match practice decides the outcome in India..
Click to expand...

You guys are right.

That toss narrates the wins is simply a convenient narrative.

But with that being said, in a game between two sides which are gonna battle hard, toss can come into play.

India were affected big time in Rajkot due to toss. Its just that we saved the game it may not be that big a deal. Usually tracks which are flat for 2 days and then turn are the most unfair pitches of them all (only green tracks that go flat on day 2 are more unfair).

If Vizag is a good batting strip for 1 day and then it turns...then losing the toss will be disadvantageous. It may or may not change the result but it does make things really hard.
 
sensible-indian-fan said:
You guys are right.

That toss narrates the wins is simply a convenient narrative.

But with that being said, in a game between two sides which are gonna battle hard, toss can come into play.

India were affected big time in Rajkot due to toss. Its just that we saved the game it may not be that big a deal. Usually tracks which are flat for 2 days and then turn are the most unfair pitches of them all (only green tracks that go flat on day 2 are more unfair).

If Vizag is a good batting strip for 1 day and then it turns...then losing the toss will be disadvantageous. It may or may not change the result but it does make things really hard.
Click to expand...

Toss is important everywhere in the world.. What if Faf didn't win the toss and Smith had decided to make them bat 1st in overcast conditions, would they have got Australia out for 85 in 2nd inning? Or would they have scored 326 playing against Starc and Hazlewood under the cloud?
 
[MENTION=79064]MMHS[/MENTION] - Thanks for the long post in this topic. Gives me some different perspective. I agree that gulf between India and visiting teams in Indian conditions makes it hard for visiting teams to win irrespective of toss. I am mainly commenting on the last 25-30 years.

I guess the data point about batting second and winning has a huge number of Indian wins due to India being so much better than visiting teams. That makes the data less useful to deduce. Pretty much Eng has been the exception here, but then not many teams have won series in India no matter when they batted.
 
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Talking about the pressure aspect on one team with a huge scoreboard pressure.

England batted very well in 2nd innings in Rajkot too. So no questions about their quality of performance.
 
Chrish said:
Toss is important everywhere in the world.. What if Faf didn't win the toss and Smith had decided to make them bat 1st in overcast conditions, would they have got Australia out for 85 in 2nd inning? Or would they have scored 326 playing against Starc and Hazlewood under the cloud?
Click to expand...

That's why we are discussing predictions based on toss winning and losing.

If India gain so much confidence and are so far ahead, maybe toss won't matter anyways. Right now, it matters to the point where a discussion is valid.
 
Buffet said:
[MENTION=79064]MMHS[/MENTION] - Thanks for the long post in this topic. Gives me some different perspective. I agree that gulf between India and visiting teams in Indian conditions makes it hard for visiting teams to win irrespective of toss. I am mainly commenting on the last 25-30 years.

I guess the data point about batting second and winning has a huge number of Indian wins due to India being so much better than visiting teams. That makes the data less useful to deduce. Pretty much Eng has been the exception here, but then not many teams have won series in India no matter when they batted.
Click to expand...

There are 2 technical points as well - among visiting sides, ENG is the only one with "genuine swing" bowlers, who can trouble IND. SAF, WI, AUS pacers are mostly hit the deck type, which won't work much in IND. ENG's wins were also set by bowlers like Lever, Botham, Foster, Jimmy - genuine swing bowlers, who could exploit the moisture & take out the barren wickets. SAF also won 2 Tests, one of which was by Styen with outstanding fast medium swing bowling. Other country with a similar bowler did won a Test in 1988 - with Sir Richard Hadlee.

On contrary, IND won against THAT WI side 3 Tests in 35 years between 1952 to 1988 at home, 2 in 74 & 1 against Packer reject WI in 79 - all 3 batting first (need to check though).

It's not about how many matches are won by batting 1st or 2nd, rather we have to see how many matches are won by teams when contest was open. IND won about 7 or 8 Tests against SRL & ZIM batting 2nd - who cares, each & every one would have won batting 1st even more harshly. On contrary, only twice (or 3 times) SRL & ZIM made a match of a Test in IND - every time batting 1st.

This time also, if Poms can save this Test, once Jimmy is back & if he finds his rhythm they'll compete even batting 2nd - trust me.
 
sensible-indian-fan said:
Let's get this rolling.

Just make your prediction

1. If England bat first
2. If India bat first

My prediction.

If England bat first - India win but with lots of efforts.
If India bat first - India win with not so much efforts.

Arrogant much?

Maybe.

Especially considering the fact that England is a team that is VERY MUCH capable of winning the next test due to their fighting spirit.

But still...gonna go with what's more logical.

What's your prediction guys?
Click to expand...

What will the conditions be like?
 
India ahead but not by how much some posters are thinking.

England are onto India's lower order/tail.

If they pick up Kohli or Ash early on tomorrow, they can aim to prevent a 500 score.

But overall, great position to be in.
 
India won 20% of the match by winning the toss, kohli drop gave them another 30%. With the pitch expected to spin viciously late on Day 2, England have a very tough task ahead. India should win this test easily.
 
This match is still alive.

Make your predictions for what will happen on Day 5.

Indian win or a famous English draw?
 
India will win this after tea tomorrow I think.
 
India got this in the bag. The bag is air-tight and sealed shut.
 
Expected way more from England on Day 5 with India fighting hard for the win.

Was a bit too easy on Day 5.
 
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