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"Race to the bottom" - Which country will decline during the next few years?

msb314

msb314

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So which established cricketing powerhouse will decline during the next few years.

IMO - India will continue to be a formidable team on the pitch and off the pitch.Bangladesh will become a top team after about a decade or so and Pakistan will also steadily improve.

Conversely - I think SAF will drastically decline. The signs are already there and I think the final nail in the coffin will be the retirements of Steyn, Du Plessis and Amla. They won't decline as badly as the WI but will begin to lose home and away series regularly.

NZ will also decline IMO once the likes of Williamson, Guptill, Boult decline.

SL are already going downhill and I expect the decline to continue further.

England and Australia are an interesting case. I think neither will be formidable as India but England will be a top 4 team after about a decade. Aus will be in the middle of the pack. England have already overtaken Aus in terms of talent and results and will continue to be better than them. Ashes will become one-sided towards England for many years.

Ireland will get better and will be in the middle of the pack IMO.

Zimbabwe and WI will fade away into oblivion.
 
I don't know about decline but Canada will surely become a cricket powerhouse with the Rise of the GT20.
 
I don't know who will decline but I am sure WI cricket is on the rise. Their performance against SL has been brilliant and they gave England a good fight in Tests away and won a game as well. So I don't agree with WI fading. I feel they are taking Test cricket seriously in the last couple of years and their investment in Bowlers like Shannon Gabriel and Roston Chase (All Rounder) is helping them. They even took two tests from Misbah led Pakistan one in UAE and one in West Indies. Jason Holder has done a great job with them over the last few years.

Australia is looking a little suspect, I don't see many good batsmen coming out of the domestic structure. I haven't seen a poorer Aussie batting line up in LOs in my life time. They have struggled in ODI's for some time now. Even with Smith and Warner, they lost 4-1 to India and 4-1 to England. Knowing Australia as a sporting nation, I am sure they will rise and become one of the top nations soon but I think that is few years away.
 
I am not sure how India is "formidable team" right now?? - Other than Kohli they don't have any special player. Right now there is no special or super team, top 4/5 teams are pretty equivalent and will remain for some time to come...

Even in T20, WI has more star and actual power than India. IPL has been played in India for 10+ years, so far we have not seen super athletes coming out of India, like we see army of such athletes in NBA, this notion that India will become NBA of Cricket (in terms of talent) is a wrong one, IPL could well become NBA of Cricket, but not necessarily Indian Athletes will be at same level as American in NBA...There is difference in capability and potential, which no amount of money can fulfill...

On BD, AFG has lot more potential than BD, they just have very poor economic base, cricketing talent potential is far superior, its matter of getting economy stable and progressing, they can rise much faster than BD...
 
South Africa needs to replace the ageing talent so could go through a decline in the coming years only to come back stronger. Ozzies are facing a temporary decline too now that the two main players are banned.

Pakistan is already at the bottom in the most important format. Any further decline is difficult as Bangladesh plays very little tests and WI doesn't care. So the only way is up.
 
BreadPakoda said:
South Africa needs to replace the ageing talent so could go through a decline in the coming years only to come back stronger. Ozzies are facing a temporary decline too now that the two main players are banned.

Pakistan is already at the bottom in the most important format. Any further decline is difficult as Bangladesh plays very little tests and WI doesn't care. So the only way is up.
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I don't understand why everyone feels that. WI have been working very hard in Test cricket. They have been doing reasonably well considering their ranking and reputation. They won a Test against Pakistan in UAE, beat Pakistan at home in one Test and almost drew the series. Won a Test in England and are now 1-0 up against SL at home. Under Jason Holder WI have a decent Test team and I have high hopes for them.
 
giri26 said:
I don't understand why everyone feels that. WI have been working very hard in Test cricket. They have been doing reasonably well considering their ranking and reputation. They won a Test against Pakistan in UAE, beat Pakistan at home in one Test and almost drew the series. Won a Test in England and are now 1-0 up against SL at home. Under Jason Holder WI have a decent Test team and I have high hopes for them.
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Their most talented players solely focus on T20 cricket. If they had put in some hard yards in initial part of their careers, the likes of Andre Russel, Narine, etc. could have been regular test players for WI. What WI has right now is a merry go round of mostly mediocre players with limited talent. IIRC there was a mid 30 year old 20 something FC averaging player who made a comeback recently.

They won against Pakistan. That's great but so has Zimbabwe. Pakistan is an unpredictable team which can lose against WI and draw a series in England. And its not like Pakistan is a top team, they rank 7, and there's only Bangladesh (another third-class test team) between them and WI. A win here and there, especially at home (where most sides are expected to win) cannot be taken as proof of doing "reasonably well". I don't know what "reasonably well for their rankings" really means. The ranking reflect how well they are doing and will change with change in performance.

Holder must be working hard on his team and I wish him good luck, but WI needs more - a big time overhaul, a change in mindset - more focus on test cricket to improve. I mean look at their points. They are at rank 9 out of 9 teams (not considering Afghanistan obviously) with 67 points. They've been doing really poorly for years now.
 
Last edited:
msb314 said:
So which established cricketing powerhouse will decline during the next few years.

IMO - India will continue to be a formidable team on the pitch and off the pitch.Bangladesh will become a top team after about a decade or so and Pakistan will also steadily improve.

Conversely - I think SAF will drastically decline. The signs are already there and I think the final nail in the coffin will be the retirements of Steyn, Du Plessis and Amla. They won't decline as badly as the WI but will begin to lose home and away series regularly.

NZ will also decline IMO once the likes of Williamson, Guptill, Boult decline.

SL are already going downhill and I expect the decline to continue further.

England and Australia are an interesting case. I think neither will be formidable as India but England will be a top 4 team after about a decade. Aus will be in the middle of the pack. England have already overtaken Aus in terms of talent and results and will continue to be better than them. Ashes will become one-sided towards England for many years.

Ireland will get better and will be in the middle of the pack IMO.

Zimbabwe and WI will fade away into oblivion.
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They have very good cricket structure right from school cricket. Windies decline was more due to the lack of it.They will do fine.
 
yasir said:
I am not sure how India is "formidable team" right now?? - Other than Kohli they don't have any special player. Right now there is no special or super team, top 4/5 teams are pretty equivalent and will remain for some time to come...

Even in T20, WI has more star and actual power than India. IPL has been played in India for 10+ years, so far we have not seen super athletes coming out of India, like we see army of such athletes in NBA, this notion that India will become NBA of Cricket (in terms of talent) is a wrong one, IPL could well become NBA of Cricket, but not necessarily Indian Athletes will be at same level as American in NBA...There is difference in capability and potential, which no amount of money can fulfill...

On BD, AFG has lot more potential than BD, they just have very poor economic base, cricketing talent potential is far superior, its matter of getting economy stable and progressing, they can rise much faster than BD...
Click to expand...
NBA just taps the incredible sports infrastructure laid out in USA right from school level. I live here and I can tell you that even a third grade high school in the worst ghetto here will have better infrastructure than most of the sub-continent.And their food is much suited to sports than our oily one.There is absolutely no comparison.
 
England. The system is not set up to produce test batters and spinners any more.

They will probably stay good at the LO stuff, but I don’t care much about that,
 
I actually agree with you regarding South Africa and New Zealand. I can see them declining but more so South Africa as they heavily rely on the ageing players, even though Ngidi and Rabada have done well but batting wise I can see them going a down hill. Lack of push youth batsman through will hurt them no matter how good they may be.
 
Abdul said:
Pakistan.
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You must be our beloved Eastern neighbor . This might be your wish but not a reality. With cricket coming back to Pakistan and IK the next PM, things can only get better from here.
 
None.WI will improve.Their LO teams have great potential.Even SL have some good batsmen but aprt from Herath,they don’t have any special bowlers.
 
Pakistan.

We might maintain our artificial ranking in T20 because most teams don’t take the format seriously, but I don’t see us getting into the top four in Tests and ODIs for many years.
 
Mamoon said:
Pakistan.

We might maintain our artificial ranking in T20 because most teams don’t take the format seriously, but I don’t see us getting into the top four in Tests and ODIs for many years.
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Are you fine?

The question is about decline. Pakistan is already well below # 4 in both the formats. Your benchmark of 4 doesn't necessarily define decline, it even defines improvement if they come at 5 as they are at 6 and 7, at the moment.
 
Kohli said:
Are you fine?

The question is about decline. Pakistan is already well below # 4 in both the formats. Your benchmark of 4 doesn't necessarily define decline, it even defines improvement if they come at 5 as they are at 6 and 7, at the moment.
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Pakistan held the Mace in September 2016 and won the Champions Trophy last year. We have struggled for years, but we have had some silverware, which I suspect will desert us over the next few years.
 
Mamoon said:
Pakistan held the Mace in September 2016 and won the Champions Trophy last year. We have struggled for years, but we have had some silverware, which I suspect will desert us over the next few years.
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You didn't answer my question EXACTLY. Anyways, nothing new on this forum. And yes, Eid mubaarak😊😊
 
Mamoon said:
Pakistan.

We might maintain our artificial ranking in T20 because most teams don’t take the format seriously, but I don’t see us getting into the top four in Tests and ODIs for many years.
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That's not decline, that's staying the same place. We're already mid/low table and I don't see us going further down in the near future even if we don't rise.

Our ODI team in particular, we were worse before, and currently have more talent than we had a few years ago in Babar, Shadab, Hasan, Amir etc.

We've largely failed to consistently get to and remain top four for the last 15 years or so (might be more but I haven't been watching cricket long enough). While I do understand that we might not given our history, I have greater faith in the current team than teams before it.

At least in ODIs anyway. In tests, a lot of our players don't look like they're suited to tests (or some even care about them). But that's a problem around the world.
 
Mamoon said:
Pakistan.

We might maintain our artificial ranking in T20 because most teams don’t take the format seriously, but I don’t see us getting into the top four in Tests and ODIs for many years.
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Do you even know what decline means? :))
 
ads101 said:
That's not decline, that's staying the same place. We're already mid/low table and I don't see us going further down in the near future even if we don't rise.

Our ODI team in particular, we were worse before, and currently have more talent than we had a few years ago in Babar, Shadab, Hasan, Amir etc.

We've largely failed to consistently get to and remain top four for the last 15 years or so (might be more but I haven't been watching cricket long enough). While I do understand that we might not given our history, I have greater faith in the current team than teams before it.

At least in ODIs anyway. In tests, a lot of our players don't look like they're suited to tests (or some even care about them). But that's a problem around the world.
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Usman Chadda said:
Do you even know what decline means? :))
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Not getting into the top four in Tests and not winning any LOI titles is obviously a decline.

We have been poor for years, but we have had some great highs, i.e. two trophies and the Mace. However, I don’t see us achieving any of that for years now.
 
Mamoon said:
Pakistan.

We might maintain our artificial ranking in T20 because most teams don’t take the format seriously, but I don’t see us getting into the top four in Tests and ODIs for many years.
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Typical Arsenal fan mentality. Celebrate the Top Four spot like it's a Trophy and fail to win any respectable Trophy in reality.

A lot of people rather have trophies and see their team perform outstandingly in World Tournaments than Bilateral series.

Also I don't get the Artificial T20 ranking **. Pakistan haven't lost a series in freaking 2 years, and before you bring the weak opposition argument, they defeated the top ranked team in their den, and also some good teams, like England and West Indies (the same team that defeated India twice). It's far less artificial than India's number 1 rank in test cricket that was built on a long home season and series with teams that are crap against their spinners.
 
Mamoon said:
Not getting into the top four in Tests and not winning any LOI titles is obviously a decline.

We have been poor for years, but we have had some great highs, i.e. two trophies and the Mace. However, I don’t see us achieving any of that for years now.
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Didn't you say something similar back in 2015 as well?
 
Teams like WI and SL are already in decline, don’t think they will go further down than this, their only way is up.

Australia is threatened to get decline but seeing their vast history of producing atheletes, very unlikely despite Smith and Warner’s slump.

England seems to have improved that ODI line up that’s not decline.

India is on the rise with tons of strong domestic set up backing, will be producing lots of match winners.

All minnows will improve from their current positions.

NZ keep producing youngster beauties i.e. Vettori and now Kane, so unlikely.

Pakistan is on the same boat as NZ, producing better young batsmen than before.

So no perticular team should be at bottom constantly.
 
SA will never decline to the levels seen by other teams when they go through spells of not finding talent. The culture of fitness and competitiveness means they'll never have to see that.
 
Zimbabwe will fade away. They have been mediocre for a long time now and there have been no signs of improvement.
 
Looking at this Australian team, only a very optimistic fan would disagree that they have major issues

So, decline?
 
Usman Chadda said:
What if we 'fluke' another trophy somewhere?
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Flukes are a rare occurrence. 1983 World Cup, 2004 Champions Trophy, 2017 Champions Trophy etc. It is unlikely that we will see another fluke any time soon.
 
Mamoon said:
Flukes are a rare occurrence. 1983 World Cup, 2004 Champions Trophy, 2017 Champions Trophy etc. It is unlikely that we will see another fluke any time soon.
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But since you can't take 'flukes' into account, doesn't that devalue all of your predictions?
 
Wish I had OP's optimism.

Ireland will go through a dip for a few years, we're already in one, until the long term benefits of full membership take hold.

SA will fade slightly IMO, wont be unbeatable at home anymore for Asian teams.

SL will remain in a rut for a long time so long as their admin remains corrupted
 
Honestly speaking, when Kohli retires I'm not sure if India will have that same hunger and drive for success they have under him now. They will produce international quality players but India isn't "invincible" as some people make them out to be, I admire them a lot as a team though. Pakistan is producing a lot of talent out of nowhere and players who play in their debut games have so far impressed a lot so I don't see Pak declining severely since we already went through that phase when Azhar was the captain (can't remember which time period this was but there was a point where we didn't win an ODI in over 5 months under Azhar). I personally believe that it would be either India or Australia (blatantly obvious since the ball-tampering incident crippled them bad).
 
BlueDoritos said:
Typical Arsenal fan mentality. Celebrate the Top Four spot like it's a Trophy and fail to win any respectable Trophy in reality.

A lot of people rather have trophies and see their team perform outstandingly in World Tournaments than Bilateral series.

Also I don't get the Artificial T20 ranking **. Pakistan haven't lost a series in freaking 2 years, and before you bring the weak opposition argument, they defeated the top ranked team in their den, and also some good teams, like England and West Indies (the same team that defeated India twice). It's far less artificial than India's number 1 rank in test cricket that was built on a long home season and series with teams that are crap against their spinners.
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The analogy with football doesn’t work, the dynamics are completely different. It’s not as if Pakistan regularly wins tournaments. The Champions Trophy was our first ODI trophy in 25 years.

India’s Test ranking is not artificial because they have beaten all teams in the world over the last three years. They haven’t played Pakistan, but we are an irrelevant team. They have beaten far better teams.

I don’t care about home or away. Our T20 ranking is artificial because nearly half of the games are against one opponent, and we haven’t played a single game against India, South Africa and Australia.
 
Mamoon said:
Not getting into the top four in Tests and not winning any LOI titles is obviously a decline.

We have been poor for years, but we have had some great highs, i.e. two trophies and the Mace. However, I don’t see us achieving any of that for years now.
Click to expand...

Don't label flukes as "great highs". You're breaking out of character.
 
Donal Cozzie said:
Wish I had OP's optimism.

Ireland will go through a dip for a few years, we're already in one, until the long term benefits of full membership take hold.

SA will fade slightly IMO, wont be unbeatable at home anymore for Asian teams.

SL will remain in a rut for a long time so long as their admin remains corrupted
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I think SAF will fade more than "slightly". Their fasting is good and are producing good fast bowlers but they are at the bottom of the barrel in terms of batting talent. I can easily see them going SL's route - which is slightly better than WI.
 
Mamoon said:
I don’t care about home or away. Our T20 ranking is artificial because nearly half of the games are against one opponent, and we haven’t played a single game against India, South Africa and Australia.
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India refuses to play with us. We will play Aussie next month. Saffers in January. I agree that our T20 performances are over-rated in many ways. We have to win the next 3-5 series to show that we’re a good side.
 
Think it's only fair we should start calling Pakistan *The best declining Asian side*

;-)
 
Pakistan won't decline. They have got an influx of young blood and they are performing well.

SL and BD lead the race. WI have turned the corner.
 
ExplicitAI said:
Honestly speaking, when Kohli retires I'm not sure if India will have that same hunger and drive for success they have under him now. They will produce international quality players but India isn't "invincible" as some people make them out to be, I admire them a lot as a team though. Pakistan is producing a lot of talent out of nowhere and players who play in their debut games have so far impressed a lot so I don't see Pak declining severely since we already went through that phase when Azhar was the captain (can't remember which time period this was but there was a point where we didn't win an ODI in over 5 months under Azhar). I personally believe that it would be either India or Australia (blatantly obvious since the ball-tampering incident crippled them bad).
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Well it's more of a wishful thinking rather than the honest thinking as you claim to be on ur part, India will deffo have the same hunger infact more considering the new gen takes fitness and winning more seriously well no team is invincible Pakistan despite all the fortress in uae threads was whitewashed by Lanka of all teams, India will do just fine with more and more people taking fitness and sports seriously, see how we never used to have pacers barring Srinath and may be agarkar, now atleast there are dozens of bowler bowling good pace batters too are coming also a lot of emphasis is put on fitness so yes India will do just fine.
 
Bubby said:
Well it's more of a wishful thinking rather than the honest thinking as you claim to be on ur part, India will deffo have the same hunger infact more considering the new gen takes fitness and winning more seriously well no team is invincible Pakistan despite all the fortress in uae threads was whitewashed by Lanka of all teams, India will do just fine with more and more people taking fitness and sports seriously, see how we never used to have pacers barring Srinath and may be agarkar, now atleast there are dozens of bowler bowling good pace batters too are coming also a lot of emphasis is put on fitness so yes India will do just fine.
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Having supreme fitness doesn't necessarily mean you'll be a world beater, it just means that you can push yourself a little bit further when playing. I'm talking about producing elite cricketers, you can't really say that you'll see loads of Kohlis being produced by top cricket teams because players like that only come once in a life time.
 
ExplicitAI said:
Having supreme fitness doesn't necessarily mean you'll be a world beater, it just means that you can push yourself a little bit further when playing. I'm talking about producing elite cricketers, you can't really say that you'll see loads of Kohlis being produced by top cricket teams because players like that only come once in a life time.
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Well Kohli wasn't the elite cricketer he is till he started taking his career seriously, and if you have noticed it in the u19 wc all the guys take passion in their cricket their fitness, guys like Shaw, mavi, Gill, nagarkotti looked really good apart from the u19 batch if you looked at the current domestic players they too were putting effort in their performances ,you don't need a new Sachin, if these guy's can perform they will make name for themselves and yes performance and fitness go hand in hand obviously u need to have talent but a fitter gut you will see the way his overall attitude changes
 
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