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Rupee fall benefits expats’ families: State Bank of Pakistan's Governor

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LONDON: Remarks made by Reza Baqir, the governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), about the benefits of currency devaluation for overseas Pakistanis have elicited strong criticism by citizens and economists back home.

At a dinner held in honour of the SBP governor in London by businessman Anil Mussarat, Mr Baqir touched on the issue of the depreciation of rupee and attempted to present it as some sort of silver lining for those overseas Pakistanis who send remittances to family members.

“The families of overseas Pakistanis in Pakistan benefit, because the volume of their hard-earned remittances are now increasing because of the exchange rate,” Mr Baqir said at the event on Monday.

“Let me explain the quantum of this. Though some lose out from the exchange rate increase, some also benefit. For example, if in this year remittances are approximately $30 billion — we hope they are higher — and if our exchange rate depreciates even 10 per cent, then it translates to an additional $3 billion reaching families of overseas Pakistanis in Pakistan. In every economic policy, there are advantages for some and disadvantages for others,” he said.

SBP governor’s comment termed ‘most irresponsible’

He also said, “Obviously, those who buy imported items are facing difficulties. Those who have the ability to go on foreign trips or buy very expensive imported things obviously will be squeezed. But there are those who have benefited, and those are the families of overseas Pakistanis in Pakistan.”

His remarks were recorded by journalists present at the interaction, and a video of his short press briefing went viral on social media. Many users questioned how the governor of the State Bank can praise the devaluation of his own currency.

One user pointed out that devaluation does not rehabilitate economies, but instead raises debt, cost of imports and slows down economic activities.

On Twitter, Uzair Younus, host of a podcast on Pakistan’s economic landscape, posted, “Arguing that a depreciating currency benefits families of overseas Pakistanis is a very weak argument. For starters, these flows represent at most 15 per cent of household income for a small fraction of households, as per PBS. Also, inflation eats into much of the gain experienced.”

“I know the latter because I’m one of the overseas Pakistanis whose remittances complement household incomes. Rising electricity, petrol [and] food prices don’t really leave much to gain. It’s amazing that the central bank governor, usually so measured, would use this logic.”

Commenting on Mr Baqir’s remarks, political economist and IBA’s executive director Akbar Zaidi told Dawn, “It is the most irresponsible comment that any public official can make. It shows how the governor of SBP is pandering to the PTI government’s obsession with overseas Pakistani at the cost of Pakistanis at home in the hope that the few who vote will vote for PTI. Secondly, the SBP governor and deputy governor are both from the IMF and are following simply what IMF wants, i.e. to let the rupee devalue. This is not even spin or intelligent spin. Someone in his position could have done this far better.”

Mr Baqir arrived in London from Washington DC, where he had accompanied Shaukat Tarin for ongoing talks with the IMF. Mr Baqir attended two events, one in London and the other in Manchester, where he was pushed by reporters on rising inflation in the country.

“Inflation is a global challenge in every country. In America, there is more inflation today than 20/30 years ago,” he said in response to one question. He added that rising oil prices had also caused inflation in Pakistan.

An IMF economist, Mr Baqir was appointed SBP governor in May 2019 for a three-year term. An Aitchison alumnus, Dr Baqir earned his PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, in Economics and has worked with the IMF for 18 years. He was the chief of the IMF’s Debt Policy Division and worked on IMF policies on external debt sustainability and restructuring of member countries.

Mr Baqir’s continuing role in the IMF raised questions after his appointment, but a federal minister said he had resigned from the Fund to become the governor of the central bank.

When contacted, the State Bank spokesman was not available to offer any comment.

Published in Dawn, October 22nd, 2021
 
Cannot believe that a SBP governor made this dumb statement
 
Country is under the control of the imf hit Squad , baqir being a former imf employee

To maintain life of the elites they have sold the country to foreign devil's whether its imf , China whatever.

People paying the price are the ordinary folk normal middle class folk , and the poor masses .

Pakistan serves a gentrified elite it has failed the rest of the nation.
 
Is State Bank of Pakistan like the SBI of Pakistan?

Or is it more like the RBI?
 
Really dumb from the State bank governor- how can he be so insensitive to the pains of the common man in Pakistan? Its almost like he is asking the expats to benefit out of the misfortune of local Pakistanis.
 
Really dumb from the State bank governor- how can he be so insensitive to the pains of the common man in Pakistan? Its almost like he is asking the expats to benefit out of the misfortune of local Pakistanis.

Imran Khan's management has been exposed; in cricket he had Javed Miandad to keep him honest but in politics he has no one to correct him.
 
Sounds very unserious. It’s shameful to be honest for Pakistan to have these people in positions of major decision making.
 
Imran Khan's management has been exposed; in cricket he had Javed Miandad to keep him honest but in politics he has no one to correct him.

This comparison between cricket and politics is getting tiresome.

In cricket, he had to deal with 11 young players who actually listened, in Politics he has to deal with 220 + million Pakistani, there is no comparison.

He has people to correct him and I am sure most do correct him but Pakistan's current political, economic, security circumstances are so dire that even him being an honest leader won't reflect immediate results.

Just hiring the right person had been a struggle due to external political influence. The past 40 years of dishonesty/corruption in every institution of Pakistan has ruined Pakistan from the core and that includes almost every Pakistani way of thinking, there is no concept left in fighting/struggling for a better future, almost everyone is looking for immediate gratification and short term solution, to the point most will be happy to re-elect Nawas Sharif, Zardari, or Molana D.
 
This comparison between cricket and politics is getting tiresome.

In cricket, he had to deal with 11 young players who actually listened, in Politics he has to deal with 220 + million Pakistani, there is no comparison.

He has people to correct him and I am sure most do correct him but Pakistan's current political, economic, security circumstances are so dire that even him being an honest leader won't reflect immediate results.

Just hiring the right person had been a struggle due to external political influence. The past 40 years of dishonesty/corruption in every institution of Pakistan has ruined Pakistan from the core and that includes almost every Pakistani way of thinking, there is no concept left in fighting/struggling for a better future, almost everyone is looking for immediate gratification and short term solution, to the point most will be happy to re-elect Nawas Sharif, Zardari, or Molana D.

Less governance and more enablement(systems) would work.
A committee for everything or board for everything might not work but enforcing existing laws is good enough.
I would say non-crony capitalism will work for 3rd world countries but I don’t think IK plans for that.
 
May not be sensitive remark but the simply put, The PK rp has been kept from 250-275 to a $ by remittances from ex pats because you crooks and thugs stole all the dollars and subsidised their corrupt rule with the rest. Agree or disagree [MENTION=135038]Major[/MENTION]
 
Insensitive yet truthful remark.

In every economic policy, there are advantages for some and disadvantages for others

At the end of the day he is not a politician, and should not be expected to give political answers.
 
pakistan cant do diddly squat, blaming the imf, or china, or the west is useless, pakistan doesnt add jack value to its exported goods.

the fact that "discoveries" of natural reserves get people so excited illustrates how little people know about what it takes to run a sustainable economy.

pakistan has built up good reserves post covid tho, this will help tide the country over for the next 12 to 18 months, within which time i think theyll pbly borrow another $3-5 billion.

the real issue will be down the line in commodity price increases persist, and remittances dry up as expat savings dwindle if global inflation spike doesn't prove transitory.
 
At the end of the day Pakistan doesn’t make or do enough of the things that the world values and is willing to pay for. Hence why exports have been stuck at around $25bn. Meanwhile Pakistan imports a lot of stuff ranging from cars to machinery to medicine. Recently Pakistan, a country with fertile land and one of the largest irrigation systems in the world, has also started importing food.

In this situation there is only so much the state bank, whose primary tools are monetary policy, can do.

Since the days of Musharraf, Pakistan has followed a predictable cycle. The outgoing government leaves a big deficit. Incoming government goes to IMF for a bailout and emergency foreign reserves. IMF requires austerity and devaluation. Very painfully the reserves are built back up over 2 to 3 years. Then, with an eye to the next election, government starts spending big which leads to a huge deficit and depletion of reserves. A new government comes in, and the cycle begins anew.

There is no getting away from a 20% to 30% devaluation of the rupee every few years as long as this cycle is in place.

To break the cycle Pakistan needs to tighten its belt in the short term. Trade deficits, very mechanically, arise because there is a government deficit and the household sector is not saving enough. To remedy this, government needs to collect more tax or spend less. At the same time households need to save more (10% to 20%) of income. Products (related to healthcare, life insurance or retirement savings) should be made available to facilitate this saving.

In the longer term Pakistan needs to make what the world values and do this cheaply. Labour cost is low in Pakistan but sadly Pakistani labour is 50% illiterate. There is a dire need to invest in human capital. Secondly, energy is unreliable and costly in Pakistan (we burn oil!). The cost of solar panels has collapsed and it is beggars belief Pakistan isn’t utilising this very low cost energy generation method despite the ideal weather (hot and sunny for most of the year).

Cheap and skilled labour plus cheap energy costs will make Pakistan a more attractive destination for manufacturing.

This isn’t rocket science. Pretty much every country in east Asia has followed this path towards middle to upper middle income status. But our incompetent elite and governments are apparently oblivious.
 
At the end of the day Pakistan doesn’t make or do enough of the things that the world values and is willing to pay for. Hence why exports have been stuck at around $25bn. Meanwhile Pakistan imports a lot of stuff ranging from cars to machinery to medicine. Recently Pakistan, a country with fertile land and one of the largest irrigation systems in the world, has also started importing food.

In this situation there is only so much the state bank, whose primary tools are monetary policy, can do.

Since the days of Musharraf, Pakistan has followed a predictable cycle. The outgoing government leaves a big deficit. Incoming government goes to IMF for a bailout and emergency foreign reserves. IMF requires austerity and devaluation. Very painfully the reserves are built back up over 2 to 3 years. Then, with an eye to the next election, government starts spending big which leads to a huge deficit and depletion of reserves. A new government comes in, and the cycle begins anew.

There is no getting away from a 20% to 30% devaluation of the rupee every few years as long as this cycle is in place.

To break the cycle Pakistan needs to tighten its belt in the short term. Trade deficits, very mechanically, arise because there is a government deficit and the household sector is not saving enough. To remedy this, government needs to collect more tax or spend less. At the same time households need to save more (10% to 20%) of income. Products (related to healthcare, life insurance or retirement savings) should be made available to facilitate this saving.

In the longer term Pakistan needs to make what the world values and do this cheaply. Labour cost is low in Pakistan but sadly Pakistani labour is 50% illiterate. There is a dire need to invest in human capital. Secondly, energy is unreliable and costly in Pakistan (we burn oil!). The cost of solar panels has collapsed and it is beggars belief Pakistan isn’t utilising this very low cost energy generation method despite the ideal weather (hot and sunny for most of the year).

Cheap and skilled labour plus cheap energy costs will make Pakistan a more attractive destination for manufacturing.

This isn’t rocket science. Pretty much every country in east Asia has followed this path towards middle to upper middle income status. But our incompetent elite and governments are apparently oblivious.

Very good post.

"In the longer term Pakistan needs to make what the world values and do this cheaply". The quickest way to do this is to get Western firms to invest in setting up modern industries in Pakistan -> "Pretty much every country in east Asia has followed this path towards middle to upper middle income status".

Only way for Pakistan to make progress is to figure out why it has been getting close to zero FDI from Western firms. To create conditions for Western investment, it is also essential that Pakistan becomes a modern nation where the military doesn't involve itself in the economy and foreign affairs. The PTI government, with IK saying "Taliban has broken the chains of slavery" and "nuclear war could happen if Kashmir isn't solved" has gone backwards.
 
Cannot believe that a SBP governor made this dumb statement

Don’t think so. He is just sales-pitching to overseas Pakistanis to invest more for their own selfish gains.

If you see closely, the US educated man is contributing to the country, and not contributing to brain-drain.
 
A United Arab Emirates-based trading and investment firm has filed a nearly Rs74 billion damages suit against the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and a private bank for allegedly freezing its bank accounts illegally nine years ago.

Energy Global International FZE filed the damages suit against the central bank on account of “unlawful” action of freezing the bank accounts and illegally converting the foreign currency account into a rupee account in December 2012.

A private commercial bank has also been made party to the suit, filed in the Sindh High Court (SHC), for not releasing the funds, according to the court application.

SHC has summoned representatives of the SBP and BankIslami to appear before the additional registrar of the court on February 15 next year to respond to the damages claim, showed the court documents.

The accounts had originally been operated by the defunct KASB Bank, but after its merger with BankIslami in May 2015, its all assets, liabilities and accounts were transferred to BankIslami.

Energy Global is incorporated under the laws of Sharjah, the UAE, but its investors are of Iranian origin.

In December 2012, the central bank froze the company’s accounts - six months before the United States imposed sanctions on the company and despite the fact that Pakistani laws do not accept US sanctions.

“The action of the SBP was contrary to the Bilateral Investment Treaty and the circulars issued to give protection to foreign investors,” said the court filing. The company was never intimated before freezing the bank accounts.

Energy Global has requested the court to declare the central bank’s act to freeze its bank accounts and convert them into rupee accounts as illegal. It has also pleaded to unfreeze the bank accounts and release the withheld balance.

The UAE-based company has taken the plea that the defunct KASB Bank was “coerced” by the central bank to transfer its four bank accounts to BankIslami and then convert those into Special Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRA).

The company had opened a bank account to operate in euro and Japanese yen currencies.

However, the central bank took the action on the basis of a letter from the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) of the US. The petitioner is of the view that neither the company was dealing in US currency nor it was facing any kind of sanctions by the United Nations or the US at the time of the adverse action.

At the time of freezing the accounts, KASB Bank had calculated the balance at Rs19.6 billion at prevailing rates of the euro and the yen.

The company has estimated Rs33.4 billion in profit on its Rs19.6 billion funds over the past five years. It has also demanded Rs10.8 billion compensation on account of loss of opportunity of doing business over the past nine years.

Another amount of Rs1.2 billion is claimed on account of damages caused by the freezing of funds in Turkey due to incomplete transactions from the Pakistani bank with a Turkish bank.

This has brought total losses and damages to Rs52.9 billion.

The company has demanded another Rs21 billion in damages, bringing the total claim to Rs73.7 billion, according to the court filing.

“The freezing ought to have been done only where any law had been violated by the plaintiff (company). The account was lawfully opened, operated and all transactions were through proper banking transactions, to the knowledge of the defendant (SBP) and never objected,” claimed the firm.

The Iranian investors of the UAE firm had also approached BankIslami through the Iranian embassy in Pakistan but the bank did not give a complete statement of the account to the firm.

Energy Global also wrote to the SBP governor in December last year and again in January this year, urging him to intervene to allow the company to utilise its money and transfer the profit earned on the funds since May 2015 to its bank account. The firm is also of the view that it is protected under bilateral investment treaties that Pakistan has signed with the UAE and Iran and no adverse action can be taken against it.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 20th, 2021.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2330250/uae-firm-files-lawsuit-against-sbp
 
While the fall in the PKR does benefit "expat" families it also harms the 221 million "inpats" (those who live in Pakistan) by making essential items like oil more expensive!
 
While the fall in the PKR does benefit "expat" families it also harms the 221 million "inpats" (those who live in Pakistan) by making essential items like oil more expensive!

A great many of the expats are men who have their wives and children living in Pakistan. When taking about expats benefiting they are not referring to the third generation Pakistani with very little ties to Pakistan.
 
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