Saudi prince calls for regime change in Riyadh

[s28]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-regime-change-letters-leadership-king-salman

A senior Saudi prince has launched an unprecedented call for change in the country’s leadership, as it faces its biggest challenge in years in the form of war, plummeting oil prices and criticism of its management of Mecca, scene of last week’s hajj tragedy.

The prince, one of the grandsons of the state’s founder, Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, has told the Guardian that there is disquiet among the royal family – and among the wider public – at the leadership of King Salman, who acceded the throne in January.

The prince, who is not named for security reasons, wrote two letters earlier this month calling for the king to be removed.

“The king is not in a stable condition and in reality the son of the king [Mohammed bin Salman] is ruling the kingdom,” the prince said. “So four or possibly five of my uncles will meet soon to discuss the letters. They are making a plan with a lot of nephews and that will open the door. A lot of the second generation is very anxious.”

“The public are also pushing this very hard, all kinds of people, tribal leaders,” the prince added. “They say you have to do this or the country will go to disaster.”

 

[s28]

The letters in Arabic calling for the overthrow of the king have been read more than 2m times. The letters call on the 13 surviving sons of Ibn Saud – specifically the princes Talal, Turki and Ahmed bin Abdulaziz – to unite and remove the leadership in a palace coup, before choosing a new government from within the royal family.


“Allow the oldest and most capable to take over the affairs of the state, let the new king and crown prince take allegiance from all, and cancel the strange, new rank of second deputy premier,” states the first letter.

“We are calling for the sons of Ibn Saud from the oldest Bandar, to the youngest, Muqrin, to make an urgent meeting with the senior family members to investigate the situation and find out what can be done to save the country, to make changes in the important ranks, to bring in expertise from the ruling family whatever generation they are from.”

The letters are unlike anything that has happened since King Faisal deposed King Saud in a palace coup in 1964.

The prince behind the letters claims to have received widespread support from both within the royal family and society at large. But only one other senior royal has so far publicly endorsed the letter, which may be unsurprising given the Saudis’ brutal history of punishing political opponents.

 

[s28]

the pips are squeaking

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iture-king-oil-slump-forces-cuts-saudi-arabia

Secret memo reveals King Salman imposing unprecedented austerity on public-sector budget as oil price languishes at under half of break-even level

Hugh Miles in Cairo

Thursday 8 October 2015 17.51 BST Last modified on Thursday 8 October 2015 22.01 BST

The Saudi government has banned official purchases of cars and furniture and slashed travel budgets and infrastructure spending as it faces its gravest fiscal crisis for years because of low oil prices, according to leaked internal government documents.

Secret Saudi policy memos issued by King Salman to the finance minister detail the new economic austerity measures to be implemented across all government ministries. Saudi public finances have been depleted this year by tumbling oil prices to such an extent that the kingdom is expected to run a deficit of at least 20% of GDP in 2015.


One letter marked “Highly Confidential and Most Urgent” dated 14-12-1436 (28 September 2015 in the Islamic calendar) gives strict instructions to stop any new projects, end the purchases of any new vehicles, furniture or other equipment, freeze all appointments and promotions, stop compensation payments for property, and halt any new rental agreements.

Expenditure from existing budgets and projects during the fourth quarter are forbidden to exceed 25% of the agreed totals, and expenditure on travel and other business-related expenses are not to exceed 15% of the original budget.

The speed at which oil revenue is brought into the finance ministry’s coffers must also be increased, and the letter says the king’s orders must be implemented immediately, provided no outstanding contractual rights are affected. The Guardian has been unable to authenticate the documents, but experts say they appear to be genuine.

The oil crunch – prices have halved to barely $50 a barrel over the past two years – has coincided with an expensive war in neighbouring Yemen and some sudden largesse decreed by Salman when he succeeded his late half-brother Abdullah as the new king in January.


“The deficit has been inflated by Salman’s decision to award an extra month’s salary to all state employees after he came to the throne,” said David Butter, a Saudi expert at the Chatham House thinktank. “The Yemen war will have added to the government’s costs, although it’s not clear whether it will show up in the accounts.”

Another leaked document on Ministry of Finance notepaper entitled “Instructions on closing the accounts and preparing the final account for the financial year 1436-37” ends with instructions that ministries must make final payments for the year-end before close of business on 15 November.

Since the Saudi fiscal year finishes on 30 December 2015, this suggests many Saudi civil servants could go unpaid for the final six weeks of the year.

Last year an official Saudi government report said more than 1.3 million people – or 12% of the total number employed – were employed in the public sector in Saudi Arabia, with women making up 38.7%.


Steffen Hertog, associate professor at the LSE’s department of government, describes the documents as a “wake-up call”.

“This is the first shot across the bow for all government agencies with significant budgets to rein in their spending,” he said, calling it “a typical jackhammer response: a general crackdown or freeze on all types of spending all across the board. Later on they think about more targeted measures.

The memo suggests Saudi civil servants could go unpaid for the final six weeks of the year.

“They are not running out of money right now,” he added, “they are just spending dramatically more than they have in terms of revenue.

“They need to do more painful things that require more planning, more sensitive political stuff like utility price reforms – electricity and gasoline – and public-sector reforms, wages and bonuses. That will be harder and they probably won’t do it very fast.”

Saudi Arabia had been hit by the “unfortunate coincidence of a royal succession and a sudden precipitous decline in oil revenue”, Hertog said, adding that the cost of public-sector bonuses, the war in Yemen and aid to regional states such as Egypt had pushed up the estimated break-even oil price to $110 a barrel.

Within hours of being published the documents had been circulated widely as alarmed Saudis discussed the new austerity measures and questioned what impact they would have on them.

“There has been a lot of lax fiscal discipline” said Hertog. “During the boom years there was a sense that money was endless. There has been significant overspending on all the national budgets from the early 2000s on, on average around 15% of the planned budget, and now the message is they won’t have that any more.”

Butter added: “The Saudis don’t have any major source of revenue apart from oil. They have very little taxation, there’s no VAT. There are a lot of subsidies throughout the whole system, and a very heavy public-sector payroll. Wages are out of control. The problems have been familiar for a long time.”

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Prince Mohammed bin Salman: Naive, arrogant Saudi prince is playing with fire


At the end of last year the BND, the German intelligence agency, published a remarkable one-and-a-half-page memo saying that Saudi Arabia had adopted “an impulsive policy of intervention”. It portrayed Saudi defence minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – the powerful 29-year-old favourite son of the ageing King Salman, who is suffering from dementia – as a political gambler who is destabilising the Arab world through proxy wars in Yemen and Syria.

Spy agencies do not normally hand out such politically explosive documents to the press criticising the leadership of a close and powerful ally such as Saudi Arabia. It is a measure of the concern in the BND that the memo should have been so openly and widely distributed. The agency was swiftly slapped down by the German foreign ministry after official Saudi protests, but the BND’s warning was a sign of growing fears that Saudi Arabia has become an unpredictable wild card. One former minister from the Middle East, who wanted to remain anonymous, said: “In the past the Saudis generally tried to keep their options open and were cautions, even when they were trying to get rid of some government they did not like.”

The BND report made surprisingly little impact outside Germany at the time. This may have been because its publication on 2 December came three weeks after the Paris massacre on 13 November, when governments and media across the world were still absorbed by the threat posed by Islamic State (IS) and how it could best be combatted. In Britain there was the debate on the RAF joining the air war against IS in Syria, and soon after in the US there were the killings by a pro-IS couple in San Bernardino, California.

Fighters from the Riyadh-backed al-Nusra Front in Aleppo (Reuters)

It was the execution of the Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and 46 others – mostly Sunni jihadis or dissenters – on 2 January that, for almost the first time, alerted governments to the extent to which Saudi Arabia had become a threat to the status quo. It appears to be deliberately provoking Iran in a bid to take leadership of the Sunni and Arab worlds while at the same time Prince Mohammed bin Salman is buttressing his domestic power by appealing to Sunni sectarian nationalism. What is not in doubt is that Saudi policy has been transformed since King Salman came to the throne last January after the death of King Abdullah.

The BND lists the areas in which Saudi Arabia is adopting a more aggressive and warlike policy. In Syria, in early 2015, it supported the creation of The Army of Conquest, primarily made up of the al-Qaeda affiliate the al-Nusra Front and the ideologically similar Ahrar al-Sham, which won a series of victories against the Syrian Army in Idlib province. In Yemen, it began an air war directed against the Houthi movement and the Yemeni army, which shows no sign of ending. Among those who gain are al-Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula, which the US has been fruitlessly trying to weaken for years by drone strikes.

None of these foreign adventures initiated by Prince Mohammed have been successful or are likely to be so, but they have won support for him at home. The BND warned that the concentration of so much power in his hands “harbours a latent risk that in seeking to establish himself in the line of succession in his father’s lifetime, he may overreach”.

The overreaching gets worse by the day. At every stage in the confrontation with Iran over the past week Riyadh has raised the stakes. The attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad might not have been expected but the Saudis did not have to break off diplomatic relations. Then there was the air strike that the Iranians allege damaged their embassy in Sana’a, the capital of Yemen.

None of this was too surprising: Saudi-Iranian relations have been at a particularly low ebb since 400 Iranian pilgrims died in a mass stampede in Mecca last year.
In pictures: Protests around the world over Saudi executions

But even in the past few days, there are signs of the Saudi leadership deliberately increasing the political temperature by putting four Iranians on trial, one for espionage and three for terrorism. The four had been in prison in Saudi Arabia since 2013 or 2014 so there was no reason to try them now, other than as an extra pinprick against Iran.

Saudi Arabia has been engaging in something of a counter attack to reassure the world that it is not going to go to war with Iran. Prince Mohammed said in an interview with The Economist: “A war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the beginning of a major catastrophe in the region, and it will reflect very strongly on the rest of the world. For sure, we will not allow any such thing.”

The interview was presumably meant to be reassuring to the outside world, but instead it gives an impression of naivety and arrogance. There is also a sense that Prince Mohammed is an inexperienced gambler who is likely to double his stake when his bets fail. This is the very opposite of past Saudi rulers, who had always preferred, so to speak, to bet on all the horses.

A main reason for Saudi Arabia acting unilaterally is its disappointment that the US reached an agreement with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme. Again this looks naive: close alliance with the US is the prime reason why the Saudi monarchy has survived nationalist and socialist challengers since the 1930s. Aside from the Saudis’ money and close alliance with the US, leaders in the Middle East have always doubted that the Saudi state has much operational capacity. This is true of all the big oil producers, whatever their ideological make-up. Experience shows that vast oil wealth encourages autocracy, whether it is in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Libya or Kuwait, but it also produces states that are weaker than they look, with incapable administrations and dysfunctional armies.

This is the second area in which Prince Mohammed’s interview suggests nothing but trouble for the Saudi royal family. He suggests austerity and market reforms in the Kingdom, but in the context of Middle East autocracies and particularly oil states this breaches an unspoken social contract with the general population. People may not have political liberty, but they get a share in oil revenues through government jobs and subsidised fuel, food, housing and other benefits. Greater privatisation and supposed reliance on the market, with no accountability or fair legal system, means a licence to plunder by those with political power.

This was one of the reasons for the uprising in 2011 against Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. So-called reforms that erode an unwieldy but effective patronage machine end up by benefiting only the elite.

Oil states are almost impossible to reform and it is usually unwise to try. Such states should also avoid war if they want to stay in business, because people may not rise up against their rulers but they are certainly not prepared to die for them.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...udi-prince-is-playing-with-fire-a6804481.html

 

[Markhor]

Good article there. These new Saudi leaders definitely worry me, they seem much more hawkish compared to their predecessors like King Abdullah.

 

[chacha kashmiri]

nothing beats sheikh hudafhi's historic khutba

 

[Saeed]

Saudi regime ain't going nowhere since they have friendly relations with USA. America will restore the monarchy if any group overthrows the Saudis.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Saudi regime ain't going nowhere since they have friendly relations with USA. America will restore the monarchy if any group overthrows the Saudis.

An external coup or some kind of revolution isn't very likely but they may well pull themselves apart from the inside. It will be interesting to see what happens when the current King dies or is no longer capable of ruling the Kingdom.

 

[godzilla]

i think the biggest issue is money. i dont think political leaning is a consideration relative to that.

thats the only thing that kept the american mercenaries onside, and now the saudis are running out of that. the only people still tentatively by their side are a) countries who are not yet sure whether oil will rebound and whether the saudi government might still soon be a best customer and b) countries (like the uae) who mirror fears of a success of democracy.

the first debt deal in x years a year ago, and now i read that the saudis are about to increase taxes and a mulling an ipo of saudiaramco. oil prices sliding to new lows every day, with some market observers expecting a price in the 20s. the saudi budget still bloated for (a) all the bribes they pay the west with defence orders for equipment they are too fat, lazy, stupid or cowardly to use themselves, (b) salaries for an exponentially bloated royal family of uneducated barbarian slobs, (c) paying of despots like sisi for fear of successful democratic movements spreading to the country (d) creating a bogey man of iran and the shia to justify more defence budget bribes, inevitable (relative) austerity, and clampdowns on inevitable political schisms and grass roots movements as the aches and creaks of a looming failed state become more pronounced (where have we seen this policy before?).

with something of the order of 300bn left in reserves, and an annual overspend of over 100bn at current rates, this cant last for very long. the usa has permissioned exporting crude for the first time in decades, the russians are still near record oil output, theres shale oil everywhere - although i expect prices will rebound to somewhere in the 50s - 60s over the next two or three years, the saudi budget is still currently built on $100+.

the chickens are finally coming home to roost, and hopefully it will be a spectacular homecoming for the benefit of everyone in the world (including the royal family in the wider scheme of things).

 

[chacha kashmiri]

i think the biggest issue is money. i dont think political leaning is a consideration relative to that.

thats the only thing that kept the american mercenaries onside, and now the saudis are running out of that. the only people still tentatively by their side are a) countries who are not yet sure whether oil will rebound and whether the saudi government might still soon be a best customer and b) countries (like the uae) who mirror fears of a success of democracy.

the first debt deal in x years a year ago, and now i read that the saudis are about to increase taxes and a mulling an ipo of saudiaramco. oil prices sliding to new lows every day, with some market observers expecting a price in the 20s. the saudi budget still bloated for (a) all the bribes they pay the west with defence orders for equipment they are too fat, lazy, stupid or cowardly to use themselves, (b) salaries for an exponentially bloated royal family of uneducated barbarian slobs, (c) paying of despots like sisi for fear of successful democratic movements spreading to the country (d) creating a bogey man of iran and the shia to justify more defence budget bribes, inevitable (relative) austerity, and clampdowns on inevitable political schisms and grass roots movements as the aches and creaks of a looming failed state become more pronounced (where have we seen this policy before?).

with something of the order of 300bn left in reserves, and an annual overspend of over 100bn at current rates, this cant last for very long. the usa has permissioned exporting crude for the first time in decades, the russians are still near record oil output, theres shale oil everywhere - although i expect prices will rebound to somewhere in the 50s - 60s over the next two or three years, the saudi budget is still currently built on $100+.

the chickens are finally coming home to roost, and hopefully it will be a spectacular homecoming for the benefit of everyone in the world (including the royal family in the wider scheme of things).

i cant see it happening

Saudi's hegemony rules the Muslim world just as American hegemony rules the western world, they are juxtaposed but are the most deadly alliance in the world

 

[godzilla]

i cant see it happening

Saudi's hegemony rules the Muslim world just as American hegemony rules the western world, they are juxtaposed but are the most deadly alliance in the world

i agree with you, it probably wont happen, its too dangerous and unpredictable, and its far easier to have even a weak and impotent ally in place than an unpredictable weak alternative. i guess it was more wishful thinking.

although i dont agree that they rule the muslim world at all. i dont think the far eastern or african muslims states have any particular loyalty to the saudis, other than a cursorary deference to their 'guardianship of the holy sites'. even sisi has been leaked as having said some inflammatory and derogatory comments towards them.

of the arab nations, the whole of history is littered with layers upon layers of records of how every tribe hates every other tribe. the only real ally they have is the uae and even then only because both governments are petrified of a peoples revolt whos first job would be to eject their bloated royal families. i think everyone else has a marginal and fickle allegiance. but i admit i dont have high conviction in these opinions, they are only my guesses.

 

[Varun]

of the arab nations, the whole of history is littered with layers upon layers of records of how every tribe hates every other tribe. the only real ally they have is the uae and even then only because both governments are petrified of a peoples revolt whos first job would be to eject their bloated royal families. i think everyone else has a marginal and fickle allegiance. but i admit i dont have high conviction in these opinions, they are only my guesses.

All the Gulf nations are chamchas of each other. Recall Saudi Arabia's immediate military response to Bahrain's call for help a few years ago, and Kuwait's Sheikh running like a darpok to Riyadh with his dishdasha folded up the second Saddam invaded. That level of inter-connectedness does not happen if you aren't spiritual allies of some sort.

 

[godzilla]

All the Gulf nations are chamchas of each other. Recall Saudi Arabia's immediate military response to Bahrain's call for help a few years ago, and Kuwait's Sheikh running like a darpok to Riyadh with his dishdasha folded up the second Saddam invaded. That level of inter-connectedness does not happen if you aren't spiritual allies of some sort.

i 100% disagree. i think that sort of interconectedness happens for the same reason that the west went running in to help the kuwaitis - money. the one thing those countries have in common is despotic autocratic monarchies, put in place by external powers. they have been living off the natural resources of their respective countires for decades because they had the luck to have either sold out or right place-right time when they were appointed.

bottom line is that the regimes of all three countries are paranoid about any political opposition because they know that they will lose everything overnight. thats why at the first signs of anything, it is either quashed by might or pid off, or both.

ask any arab and they will tell you how historically, since time immemorial, and consistently, each tribe hates all others. hate might be a strong word, it might be more like a mumbai vs delhi or karachi vs lahore type thing, but that plays far more into their differentiating identity than does any semblance of spirituality.

spirituality and religion has absolutely nothing to do with any of it - its a total and obvious red herring. the most obvious evidence for which is the fact that in the whole extended region people have lived side by side and protected each other no matter what religion or political ideology for centuries. times of conflict are exceptions rather than the rule.

i dont think this is specific to the muslim world, i think it is in the nature of human beings, and pretty much all religions that i have studied, to embrace hospitality and diversity to a large extent, as long as diversity does not become imposition - virtually all departures from this, in my opinion, are politically motivated.

 

[anuk]

oh yeah time for one bigoted criminal to be replaced by another. signs of progress in the middle east.

 

[s28]

Isn't the problem that likes of Pakistan provide massive subservient support to Saudi regimes from providing troops to Saudi's reciprocating by providing havens for bent ex rulers when they flee the Country (Zardari's nickname of Mr 10% came about from acting as middleman for British-Saudi arms dealers right?). It's too comfortable at the top level.

 

[chacha kashmiri]

i agree with you, it probably wont happen, its too dangerous and unpredictable, and its far easier to have even a weak and impotent ally in place than an unpredictable weak alternative. i guess it was more wishful thinking.

although i dont agree that they rule the muslim world at all. i dont think the far eastern or african muslims states have any particular loyalty to the saudis, other than a cursorary deference to their 'guardianship of the holy sites'. even sisi has been leaked as having said some inflammatory and derogatory comments towards them.

of the arab nations, the whole of history is littered with layers upon layers of records of how every tribe hates every other tribe. the only real ally they have is the uae and even then only because both governments are petrified of a peoples revolt whos first job would be to eject their bloated royal families. i think everyone else has a marginal and fickle allegiance. but i admit i dont have high conviction in these opinions, they are only my guesses.

Somalia defintely has an allegiance to Saudi as does Bahrain, im not so sure about the others either
The UAE are more intrested in trade and building a newer york than they are in any kind of theology

 

[godzilla]

Somalia defintely has an allegiance to Saudi as does Bahrain, im not so sure about the others either
The UAE are more intrested in trade and building a newer york than they are in any kind of theology

perhaps true re bahrain and somalia, but both are irrelevant states.

 

[sshakir411]

the power play is between the other royals and the Sudairis...back in the day there was a clan within the royal family known as Sudairi 7....it included...the late King Fahd, Prince Naif, Prince Sultan, Prince Abdur Rehman, Prince Turki, and the now King Salman..The idea was to keep the throne within the Sudairis..Sultan, Niaf, and Turki were all in line to become kings but they either died or were replaced by King Abdullah. King Abdullah was the only exception...and since King Salman took over, he has replaced all non-Sudairis with his new succession plan..they want to keep the power within the Sudairis.

King Abdul Aziz (founder of Saudi) apparently loved one of his wives Hassan Bint Al-Sudairi the most...and chose most of the sons from her to become King one day.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Mohammed bin Nayef, Saudi strong man in a power struggle
After recent executions, the interior minister might be losing his grip, writes Simeon Kerr

T

he day after last week’s execution of a Shia dissident in Saudi Arabia, a killing that sent tremors through the Middle East, police were dispatched to quell unrest in his village of al-Awamiya. Enraged followers of Nimr al-Nimr, the Shia cleric, long a thorn in the side of the Saudi royal family, railed against the interior minister, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the man most directly associated with security in the kingdom.

The prince is the son of the late Nayef bin Abdulaziz, the long-time security chief and powerful royal who presided over numerous crackdowns, earning the wrath of freedom activists.

Prince Mohammed, known in international circles as MbN, might have held a personal grudge against Nimr, who had rejoiced when his father Nayef died in 2012. But few observers believe the carefully calculating MbN would have enthusiastically endorsed a decision that threatens reprisals at home and in the region, where Saudi-Iranian rivalry plays out across several volatile fronts. This was the first mass execution of political opponents since 63 religious extremists were publicly beheaded for the 1979 siege in the Grand Mosque of Mecca.

Yet MbN is in the eye of the storm as the Middle East plunges deeper into crisis. A nephew of King Salman, the ultimate decision maker, he is responsible not only for domestic security but also for Saudi Arabia’s policy in Syria, a main battleground in the confrontation with Iran.

In the new Saudi regime led by King Salman, enormous power has been vested in Mohammed bin Salman, the monarch’s son and deputy crown prince. But it is on the steady hand of MbN that western allies are relying to maintain stability in the kingdom.

He was appointed second in line to the throne by King Salman in April last year, highlighting the monarch’s determination to pass power to the younger generation of princes after decades of rule by ageing leaders.

The 56-year-old MbN, a close ally of the US, is best known for his role as counter-terrorism chief in his father’s interior ministry, where he presided over the crackdown against al-Qaeda, when the terrorist network launched a violent campaign in Saudi Arabia in 2003.

When public unrest broke out in 2011, the reaction was brutal. Human rights groups claimed that the security forces used live ammunition against unarmed protesters and that mass arrests later led to torture to extract confessions.

The quietly-spoken prince may brook no dissent, but he also understands that Saudi leaders need to consult with their people. That was on show last year when he paid condolences in the tense city of Qatif in the eastern province, home to the kingdom’s Shia minority, after an Isis suicide bomber killed 21 Shia worshippers at a mosque.

MbN was accosted by one of the victims’ brothers. Taken aback, he punctuated his response with a gentle tap on the man’s chest: “The security services will crack down on those who oppose [the state] whoever they are,” he said.

One western executive who dealt with MbN in the past says the US-educated prince is “extremely approachable”, helping protect overseas interests through the tumultuous years when extremist attacks included mass slaughter at a housing compound and the dragging of an oil engineer to his death behind a speeding car.

His counter-terrorism role exposed him to four assassination attempts, including one in 2009 when he was slightly injured when a suicide bomber concealed explosives up his backside.

Since that attack, he has also taken his own security more seriously. Activists, who say they have spoken to the prince via closed circuit television screens for safety reasons, call him the Wizard of Oz.

As crown prince, MbN should have immense power. Over the past year, however, he has been losing influence to his younger cousin, Mohammed bin Salman. The 30-year-old is tasked with rushing through radical financial reforms to stem the haemorrhaging of foreign reserves as oil prices slump to
11-year lows, but has also been playing an important role in foreign policy.
"His court has been merged with that of the king and one of his advisers was removed from the cabinet"

MbN’s court has been merged with that of the king and one of his close advisers was removed from cabinet in September. Whispers of a power struggle are never far from the lips of Riyadh’s chattering classes. Some analysts assume that, at some stage, MbN may be moved aside in favour of Mohammed bin Salman if the king’s health deteriorates. Others say that tensions between the cousins are exaggerated and succession could follow a more straightforward script, with MbN becoming king and appointing Mohammed bin Salman as his crown prince.

“The power struggle has looked rather one sided,” says Neil Partrick, the editor of an upcoming book on Saudi foreign policy. “The crown prince ostensibly runs political and security affairs, but is largely reduced to running the interior ministry.”

Yet the interior ministry remains a significant power base and MbN retains good relations across the ruling family. Father of two daughters, he presents no dynastic competition to other members of al-Saud. If he reigns, he cannot pass the throne to his progeny.

“MbN is very much the strong man who would bring stability,” says one western observer. “But is the region getting what it needs right now?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d299e2e-b533-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html#axzz3xLjOKh5t

 

[Cpt. Rishwat]

Isn't the problem that likes of Pakistan provide massive subservient support to Saudi regimes from providing troops to Saudi's reciprocating by providing havens for bent ex rulers when they flee the Country (Zardari's nickname of Mr 10% came about from acting as middleman for British-Saudi arms dealers right?). It's too comfortable at the top level.

Pakistan's support isn't really subservient, it's paid for by the Saudis. They have bankrolled the country to an unprecedented level. I think Pakistan is in too deep to be able to say no to any Saudi requests indefinitely.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

It's interesting to see what is happening at the moment in Saudi Arabia as King Salman passes more and more powers to his son - on one hand the son is praised for the much needed economic reforms which are set to take place in the Kingdom however he's also the same man who has been at the forefront of the Saudi misadventures in Yemen as well as the proxy war in Syria.

Collapse of Doha talks highlights the rise of Mohammed bin Salman
The influence of the deputy crown prince over Saudi oil policy is growing, writes Roula Khalaf


Ali al-Naimi has been the king of oil for more than two decades. Markets rose and tumbled on the Saudi oil minister’s words. The 81-year-old technocrat always carefully chose the words and his timing. His statements were dissected and widely commented on, as were the occasional leaks which reflected his thinking.

As part of the sweeping changes in Saudi Arabia since King Salman took over as head of state last year, the words of another official should be taken most seriously: Mohammed bin Salman, the 30-year-old deputy crown prince, favourite son of the king, and decision maker in chief.

For those who had not noticed, the immensely powerful MbS, as he is referred to by foreigners, likes to talk. And in Saudi tradition, a royal’s word is more important than that of any technocrat, however many years he’s been in the job, and however authoritative he has been until now. MbS, moreover, is not your typical royal. King Salman, his father, has essentially handed him the economic keys to the kingdom, including oil policy, which had been run until now by oil ministers answering directly to the king.

Had markets listened carefully to MbS, the collapse of the Doha talks to freeze output would not have come as a surprise. Officials in the oil ministry suggested the meeting would end with a freeze on output even if Iran, which is only now ramping up its oil production after the lifting of sanctions, did not join in. MbS, however, told Bloomberg last week — in an interview published on Saturday — that there would be no deal unless all major producers, including Iran, were on board. In Tehran, the government has never wavered in its position that it would not join a freeze.

As oil prices slipped on Monday, speculation about what happened in Doha — from a draft agreement in the morning to a collapse in talks in the evening — was rife. Was there a disagreement between the oil ministry and the royal palace? Did the ministry miscalculate the prospect of an Iranian change of heart?
More video

The oil minister is as loath as the prince to give Tehran a free ticket back to the market, although other producers have largely acquiesced to the Iranian argument that it needs some time to increase production to pre-sanctions levels before implementing a freeze. It is clear, however, that whether through miscommunication or differences in tactics, they have left the market — and their fellow producers — with the impression of Saudi incoherence and flip flopping.
Doha talks

Oil shows resilience as production deal collapses

Deadlock in Doha cannot be ignored because it raises the risk of a damaging price war

So what does Doha tell us? First, MbS’s repeated interventions in policy point to a shift in Saudi oil management, allowing politics to get in the way of policy. Iran is Saudi Arabia’s major rival in the Gulf, and confronting Tehran is the political priority. Despite wild rumours that Saudi Arabia’s shift in oil policy in 2014 towards defending market share rather than the price was driven by geopolitics, Mr Naimi’s thinking at the time was firmly based on market dynamics and driven above all by the shale revolution.

This attitude may be changing. The second takeaway from Doha is that in the new Saudi reality, MbS’ influence is expanding and, once he speaks, only his father can contradict him.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0875ab12-0573-11e6-a70d-4e39ac32c284.html#axzz46qpDo2Yv

 

[s28]

The parlous state of Saudi finances was made clear in a recent Bloomberg interview in Riyadh when the prince’s economic guru, Mohammed al-Sheikh, said the country had been losing $30bn of reserves a month the first half of last year and would have gone “completely broke” by early 2017 without drastic austerity measures.

Mr al-Sheikh admitted that he was “on the verge of a nervous breakdown”. This grim reality was carefully screened from the world last year. The question is whether it is really any better now.

 

[LongHorn]

The Saudi Govt. has learned the value of PR and talking big; slight resemblance to the Modi campaign.

When times are not good, the idea is to keep talking about "vision", "plan", "change" and grand statements like "we don't need oil by 2020", and "we care".

By the time people find out, nothing much has changed, at all.

And for all the talk of waste and efficiency and privatization, as in many 3rd world countries and first world companies, becoming more efficient is focused on the middle and lower classes; the top are free to take as much as they were taking, and even more.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

And now they've reversed the austerity cuts.

Saudi Arabia reverses austerity measure and reinstates benefits

King Salman bin Abdulaziz reshuffles cabinet and appoints his son as US ambassador

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz reversed one of the kingdom’s most contentious austerity measures on Saturday, reinstating benefits to civil servants and military personnel.


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In dozens of royal decrees, King Salman also reshuffled the cabinet, appointing his son, Prince Khaled bin Salman, as ambassador to the US.

The reinstatement of benefits to civil servants after six months underlines the limits of reform in the kingdom, where the ruling family must be seen to provide for the people in return for loyalty to the state.

“The royal order returns all allowances, financial benefits and bonuses to civil servants and military staff,” the decree said.

Last year’s move, which affected the take-home pay of two-thirds of working Saudi nationals, was the most severe measure taken to limit government spending in a time of low oil prices. It had an instant impact on consumer confidence and business sentiment.

The reversal was also regarded as politically damaging to Mohammed bin Salman, the powerful 31-year-old deputy crown prince, who is leading the kingdom’s economic reform drive.



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Officials said the reinstatement of benefits was made possible by a better than expected fiscal situation after two years of cost-cutting to combat the sustained fall in oil prices.

Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, the deputy economy minister, said on state television that the first quarter deficit was SR26bn ($7bn), compared with SR54bn projected at the beginning of the year.

Mazen al-Sudairi, head of research at Al Rajhi Capital, said: “I was expecting some stimulus to come from the government, though we didn’t expect the reverse [of benefits] to come this fast.”

The civil service benefit cuts are estimated to have saved the government SR36bn-40bn since their introduction at the beginning of October, he said.

With oil prices close to the level at which the government based its spending plans — at about $50 a barrel — it has the scope to be more generous, Mr Sudairi added.

“Last year was very difficult, but I think government spending is going to kick back into the economy soon,” he said.

The decrees also included a number of ministerial and diplomatic reappointments.

The appointment of Mohammed bin Salman’s younger full brother, Khalid bin Salman, as ambassador to the US is another example of the promotion of the younger generation of princes to important positions.

Prince Khalid is a former fighter pilot who took part in operations targeting Sunni jihadi groups such as Isis.

Saudi Arabia is keen to cement a revival in ties with the US under President Donald Trump, whom they hope will back Riyadh’s campaign to check the influence of rival Shia Iran in war-ravaged countries such as Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, one of Mohammed bin Salman’s elder half-brothers, was appointed as minister of state for energy affairs. In an expansion of his existing role he will have a hand in policymaking across oil, gas and renewables.

Prince Abdulaziz will be involved in decision-making around privatisations, including the planned public offering of state energy giant Saudi Aramco, and other domestic reforms. He will work with Khalid Al Falih, who has a broader remit as minister of energy, industry and mineral resources. In a tweet, Mr Falih, a former chief executive of Saudi Aramco, said: “We look forward to continue to work together.”

Adel al-Toraifi, information and culture minister, was replaced by Awad bin al-Awwad, the Saudi ambassador to Germany.

Essam bin Saaed will replace Khalid al-Arj, civil service minister, who was removed and placed under investigation by a special committee. Local media had reported that he had appointed his son to a senior position within the ministry.

https://www.ft.com/content/002e6f0a-2806-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Saudi king upends royal succession and names son Mohammed bin Salman as first heir to throne

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...yal-succession-names-son-mohammed-bin-salman/

 

[Gabbar Singh]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">MBS been playing for the throne for a while. Pro-Trump, anti-Iran hardliner. Headstrong; risk-taker. Look for regional proxy wars to worsen. <a href="https://t.co/pU9PeL0C9j">https://t.co/pU9PeL0C9j</a></p>— Max Fisher (@Max_Fisher) <a href="https://twitter.com/Max_Fisher/status/877371336741588993">21 June 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mohammed bin Salman is hothead young cock-of-the-walk credited w Saudi involvement in Syria, Yemen and Libya as well as crisis w Qatar</p>— Mark Sleboda (@MarkSleboda1) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1/status/877368761040416768">June 21, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Yossarian]

Until now, the throne has passed from brother to brother, with the current King being amongst the youngest. Logically, once the last of the bothers had gone, the line of succession would/should have been from one of the grandsons of King AbdulAziz, ie sons of King Saud or King Faisal.

But now King Salman has bypassed all that, supposedly with the support of the Allegiance Council, and made his relatively young hot-headed son, who would normally be near the bottom of the queue of hundreds of grandsons of King AndulAziz, to be the next in line.

This is not going to be pretty when King Salman dies and the new Crown Prince becomes King. This could be the start of the end of the Saudi Royal family regime.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

They even made poor Mohammed bin Nayef, who had just been sacked from all his roles, very publicly give his blessing to the new crown prince and pledge allegiance to him lol. Wonder what the Americans think of this, afterall they were very close to Nayef?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Prince Mohammed bin Nayef gives his blessings and pledges alliegance to his successor as Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, at Safa palace. <a href="https://t.co/uauDPO60hN">pic.twitter.com/uauDPO60hN</a></p>— Mohammed K. Alyahya (@7yhy) <a href="https://twitter.com/7yhy/status/877396627996233728">June 21, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[sshakir411]

Until now, the throne has passed from brother to brother, with the current King being amongst the youngest. Logically, once the last of the bothers had gone, the line of succession would/should have been from one of the grandsons of King AbdulAziz, ie sons of King Saud or King Faisal.

But now King Salman has bypassed all that, supposedly with the support of the Allegiance Council, and made his relatively young hot-headed son, who would normally be near the bottom of the queue of hundreds of grandsons of King AndulAziz, to be the next in line.

This is not going to be pretty when King Salman dies and the new Crown Prince becomes King. This could be the start of the end of the Saudi Royal family regime.

King Saud was replaced by Faisal and was sent in to exile. His entire lineage has no important position within the Royal Family. Faisal's family was smart...they invested a lot in education, agriculture, etc..and have remained to play important role in the Saudi economy but have phased out of government. Faisal's sons Khalid and Turki both served as Ambassadors but have decided not to be part of government anymore...Faisal's kids are more refined than your average Saudi princes and have stayed away from any important positions which are a prerequisite to getting in line for being King.

There's already talks in the Saudi circle (heard this from my Saudi friends, which is what makes it more interesting) that the Monarchy might fall after Salman. There are signs of a possible rebellion against the younger generation from within the Royal family and rumor has it that if for whatever reason the Monarchy falls then it will be the Bin Laden family who will take over. Bin Laden family owns pretty much more than 50% of Saudi Arabia (through construction and real-estate) and are seen as a major player if things for the Sauds fall apart.

 

[Yossarian]

King Saud was replaced by Faisal and was sent in to exile. His entire lineage has no important position within the Royal Family. Faisal's family was smart...they invested a lot in education, agriculture, etc..and have remained to play important role in the Saudi economy but have phased out of government. Faisal's sons Khalid and Turki both served as Ambassadors but have decided not to be part of government anymore...Faisal's kids are more refined than your average Saudi princes and have stayed away from any important positions which are a prerequisite to getting in line for being King.

There's already talks in the Saudi circle (heard this from my Saudi friends, which is what makes it more interesting) that the Monarchy might fall after Salman. There are signs of a possible rebellion against the younger generation from within the Royal family and rumor has it that if for whatever reason the Monarchy falls then it will be the Bin Laden family who will take over. Bin Laden family owns pretty much more than 50% of Saudi Arabia (through construction and real-estate) and are seen as a major player if things for the Sauds fall apart.

You're being too simplistic. Basically, King Salman has ditched all the family protocol by appointing his hot-headed young upstart Mohammed bin Salman. In fact, some say that Mohammed bin Salman has for some time now been controlling who has access to his father and who doesn't.

They even say that, due to King Salman's poor health, Mohammed bin Salman has in fact been running the show. He's the one responsible for the war in Yemen, for the increase in tensions with Iran, the cutting of ties with Qatar, and is very close to Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, who's pressing him to recognise and establish ties with Israel.

And, with him effectively already being in charge due to his father's ill health, he's simply made himself the Crown Prince and forced the Allegiance Council to accept and formalize this soft coup d'etat. Including forcing Mohammed bin Nayef, who's role of Crown Prince he's taken for himself, and who he's sacked from all his roles, he's further humiliated by very publicly forcing him to 'give' his blessings and pledge allegiance to himself.

Having said all that, amongst the hundreds of Royal Princes who were higher up in the queue and who he's usurped, there will be many who will not take this lying down. Expect them to try something when King Salman dies, and expect him to take measures 'to get them before they get him' whilst his father is still alive, is still the King and technically still in charge.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Mohammed Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's Prince Of Chaos
All the levers of power are now in the hands of a young, inexperienced and risk-taking man.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/saudis-prince-chaos-205606563

 

[s28]

Talk on Twitter of something going off in Mecca tonight

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BREAKING?src=hash">#BREAKING</a> Clashes with unknown group reported around Mecca in al-Usaylah. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Saudi?src=hash">#Saudi</a> security forces on extreme alert.. <a href="https://t.co/CfnSmvNITt">pic.twitter.com/CfnSmvNITt</a></p>— Rami (@RamiAILoIah) <a href="https://twitter.com/RamiAILoIah/status/878079826413965312">23 June 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Gabbar Singh]

Reads like something from a mafia novel. Fascinating stuff.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...a-mohammed-bin-nayef-mohammed-bin-salman.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-palace-coup-idUSKBN1A41IS

 

[ShadabFakhar]

Talk on Twitter of something going off in Mecca tonight

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BREAKING?src=hash">#BREAKING</a> Clashes with unknown group reported around Mecca in al-Usaylah. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Saudi?src=hash">#Saudi</a> security forces on extreme alert.. <a href="https://t.co/CfnSmvNITt">pic.twitter.com/CfnSmvNITt</a></p>— Rami (@RamiAILoIah) <a href="https://twitter.com/RamiAILoIah/status/878079826413965312">23 June 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Did you get an update on what that was about?

 

[s28]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A number of figures quietly arrested in Saudi Arabia. Things are heating up. <a href="https://t.co/fjvj1IsUwA">https://t.co/fjvj1IsUwA</a></p>— İyad el-Baghdadi (@iyad_elbaghdadi) <a href="https://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi/status/906972344110993408">10 September 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>