Matthews aint bowling.
If Pakistan bat first, they'll make 260 - 280 and Sri lanka will chase it down.
If Sri lanka bats first, they'll make 290 - 320 and Pakistan will lose by 70 - 80 runs.
Sri lanka has found its mojo. Amir won't be that effective against lefties. Dhanushka, Kusal and Asela have their confidence up. Chandimal will play an anchor innings.
Biggest issue is, just like WC 2015, the win against the Proteas was due to a bowling resurgence, in helpful conditions. Pakistans batting is still rubbish. I honestly don't think Babar Azam will make a huge impact - despite he being Pakistans best bat.
Hafeez has always been good against SL, so he may score a 70 ball 50, Shoaib Malik will make runs. Sarfraz too will make a telling contribution.
With Malingas slow balls, and Asela Gunarathnas dibbly dobblers (Just like Marcus North, Grandhomme etc Pakistan will make average bowlers look like Michael Holding) and of course some good death bowling, Pakistan's progress will be limited.
Pakistan will bowl OK, but Amir will get hit for a few.
Sadly, it's a 80 - 20 for Sri lanka.