Scottish independence

[Bewal Express]

The Scottish govt having another referendum until it gets the answer it wants. As a side note, Maybe our Ind friends can see how a proper democracy behaves.

 

[shortbread]

Won't Theresa May just tell Nicky Sturgeon to bog off?

May knows SNP will never win a independence referendum, so does Sturgeon.

The best argument the SNP had was in 2014 when oil was $100 and kept rising, the North Sea contributed £7 bill to the exchequer. Alex Salmond's argument was when this revenue becomes their own, Scotland will have a strong viable economy.

Despite this sound argument SNP were defeated.

Today oil is $50 a barrel and the North sea is dying a slow death. When Ruth Davidson grilled SNP in the Scottish parliament and asked her to make an economic case they just sat quietly!

UK can survive without Europe, Scotland cannot survive without the UK. Its Westminister's largesse that keeps the Scottish economy afloat today.

But the SNP are nothing without the referendum, they were the biggest winners in the last one. The rally call for all Scots result in votes for the SNP but none for the independence referendum.

 

[godzilla]

the sooner this whining is put to bed the better. its interesting that details are so sparse on the economic argument, why isn't more made of this? and its all good and well to talk up the benefits of the union, no doubt, and many are undeniable - but why isn't the other side of the coin spoken about? the uk was made to pay a huge membership fee, do the Scotts not think they will have to pay, and if so, where are they going to get the money for it from?

"One of the target metrics the EU enforces on its members is for each state to aim for a budget deficit of no more than 3pc of GDP.

Scotland is a terrible performer in this regard, spending £1,200 a head more than the rest of the UK and receiving £400 per head less.

The Scottish government's latest annual estimate puts the country's deficit at £15bn or 9.5pc of GDP. This would be comfortably the worst score for any EU member state.

Scotland may have to prove it can reduce this deficit before EU membership becomes a possibility and this would take time."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...onomically-risky-scottish-independence-would/

I think this is all political posturing which is grossly irresponsible at a time when negotiations are about to start - the decision is already made to exit, and for the union, attempting to sabotage the effort to deal the best hand for the uk now is grossly negligent.

 

[Robert]

An independent Scotland might try for EFTA membership.

It is horrible to think of a hard border going up between England and Scotland.

 

[James]

the sooner this whining is put to bed the better. its interesting that details are so sparse on the economic argument, why isn't more made of this? and its all good and well to talk up the benefits of the union, no doubt, and many are undeniable - but why isn't the other side of the coin spoken about? the uk was made to pay a huge membership fee, do the Scotts not think they will have to pay, and if so, where are they going to get the money for it from?

"One of the target metrics the EU enforces on its members is for each state to aim for a budget deficit of no more than 3pc of GDP.

Scotland is a terrible performer in this regard, spending £1,200 a head more than the rest of the UK and receiving £400 per head less.

The Scottish government's latest annual estimate puts the country's deficit at £15bn or 9.5pc of GDP. This would be comfortably the worst score for any EU member state.

Scotland may have to prove it can reduce this deficit before EU membership becomes a possibility and this would take time."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...onomically-risky-scottish-independence-would/

I think this is all political posturing which is grossly irresponsible at a time when negotiations are about to start - the decision is already made to exit, and for the union, attempting to sabotage the effort to deal the best hand for the uk now is grossly negligent.

Fully agree.

Sturgeon is on a hiding to nothing with this, and sad to see the BBC taking an anti-unionist stance with their headlines today.

 

[Nostalgic]

I've always been fascinated by how Salmon(d) was replaced by Sturgeon. There's a nautical theme in the making. I wonder if the fish and chips vendors in Scotland have tried using this as a marketing ploy?

 

[Yossarian]

How ironic. Brexiteers, by claiming that they want the UK to decide it's own destiny and not be ruled from Brussels, won by 52% to 48%, but now they say that 4% winning margin gives them carte blanche to do whatever they want.

The Scots, in the last independence referendum, were told they must vote to reject independence in order to remain in the EU.

But now they are told they have to leave the EU even though they voted 63% to Remain, and only 37% to Leave. And "No" they cannot have another referendum for Scotland to decide it's own destiny and not be ruled from London.

Double standards me thinks.

 

[PakLFC]

With the Brexit thing now is not the time for another referendum. It is like being insensitive to an ill person who needs your support. Perhaps later it can be considered again.

 

[James]

Scotland voted 55-45 to Stay a part of the UK, not even that long ago, and if I remember correctly, regionally it was only Glasgow that saw a majority vote for Leave in the whole bloody country. Every other region was majority Stay.

This was in 2014, so it hardly goes back to a referendum in the 1970s like the EU did.

It's largely a non-story; Sturgeon is trying to justify her own salary and her own party's continued existence. Huge example of a fad party.

Very sad that dedicated public servants such as Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy (who died from alcoholism a few months later) got kicked out of government in favour of useless SNP socialist runts who probably don't even turn up to parliament and / or stand up to speak most of the time.

 

[gkb101277867]

Scotland voted 55-45 to Stay a part of the UK, not even that long ago, and if I remember correctly, regionally it was only Glasgow that saw a majority vote for Leave in the whole bloody country. Every other region was majority Stay.

This was in 2014, so it hardly goes back to a referendum in the 1970s like the EU did.

It's largely a non-story; Sturgeon is trying to justify her own salary and her own party's continued existence. Huge example of a fad party.

Very sad that dedicated public servants such as Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy (who died from alcoholism a few months later) got kicked out of government in favour of useless SNP socialist runts who probably don't even turn up to parliament and / or stand up to speak most of the time.

Terrible post. The SNPs manifesto before the 2016 elections said that they would push for another referendum if there was a significant change in scotlands circumstances such as scotland being FORCED TO LEAVE THE EU AGAINST ITS WILL. This led to the SNP getting the most votes its ever had in its history.

The EU referendum then happened and what was the outcome? The outcome was that scotland was going to be dragged out of the EU despite EVERY AREA OF SCOTLAND voting to stay (check the vote map if you dont believe me).

Nicola is only doing what the scottish people voted for her to do

 

[Syed1]

I've always been fascinated by how Salmon(d) was replaced by Sturgeon. There's a nautical theme in the making. I wonder if the fish and chips vendors in Scotland have tried using this as a marketing ploy?

Something is definitely fishy

 

[Nostalgic]

Something is definitely fishy

And just when it looked like the independence movement was beginning to Flounder.

 

[James]

So, what's going to happen to Scotland if they somehow manage to get a 2nd referendum approved and then if they somehow manage to vote majority Leave - they are going to re-enter the EU? With what money? There is a large entry fee, as well as a significant ongoing membership fee.

 

[Robert]

It's largely a non-story; Sturgeon is trying to justify her own salary and her own party's continued existence. Huge example of a fad party.

I think the difference between the SNP and UKIP is that the former have the intellectual competence to govern. A lot of their supporters are for British union.

 

[Junaids]

Scotland voted 55-45 to Stay a part of the UK, not even that long ago, and if I remember correctly, regionally it was only Glasgow that saw a majority vote for Leave in the whole bloody country. Every other region was majority Stay.

This was in 2014, so it hardly goes back to a referendum in the 1970s like the EU did.

It's largely a non-story; Sturgeon is trying to justify her own salary and her own party's continued existence. Huge example of a fad party.

Very sad that dedicated public servants such as Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy (who died from alcoholism a few months later) got kicked out of government in favour of useless SNP socialist runts who probably don't even turn up to parliament and / or stand up to speak most of the time.

To be precise, compare the two referenda:

Scotland to remain in the UK: 55%
Scotland to remain in the EU: 62%

The bottom line is that more Scots want to be in the EU than the UK.

Indeed, a substantial part of the "No" vote in the independence referendum was because Alastair Darling's "No" campaign told Scots that the only way to remain in the EU was to vote against independence. We now know the opposite to be true.

It's impossible to tease out whether the number of "No" voters who prioritise EU membership ahead of staying in the UK would outnumber the number of "Yes" voter who prioritise independence ahead of EU membership!

But what everybody agrees is that in the Under-30's there is a ticking timebomb in favour of independence.

Scottish independence is inevitable. It may well not happen in 2019, but this is a longer game, and it will happen no later than 2030.

I'm in an unusual situation. I think Brexit may be good for England, but is bad for Scotland and Wales, which would be better off independent but in the EU, and Northern Ireland, which would be better in a united Ireland in the EU.

But I also still believe that within 20 years of Scottish independence, Northern England will secede to join Scotland rather than remain under eternal Conservative rule in England.

I can't see any way in which Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Leeds and Sheffield would prefer endless Conservative rule and northern poverty (and remember, I AM a Conservative) to progressive socialism in a new union with Scotland.

 

[Junaids]

I think the difference between the SNP and UKIP is that the former have the intellectual competence to govern. A lot of their supporters are for British union.

But [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION], I am not sure how British union benefits Scotland.

I'm aware that under the Barnett Formula they get a relatively generous share of public expenditure. But it is an elevated share from a much lower amount of revenue raised in England than 90%+ of Scots would support, as even Scottish Conservatives believe that the UK income tax rates are far too low to fund a modern Northern European society.

(And I happen to agree with my fellow Conservatives from Scotland on that count. The tax rate is far too low in the UK, especially for the people who vote for our side. Margaret Thatcher continues to haunt us from beyond the grave, with her endless election bribes, as poor Philip Hammond has just discovered as he is expected to deliver a modern society with inadequate revenue).

I have family in Scotland, who are ardent unionists. But I disagree with them: I think that Scotland would have been best off seceding 35 years ago, but better late than never.

I personally would prefer Scotland in the union, because endless one party rule is never a good thing, even when it's my party.

But I am certain that Scotland would be best off as another Ireland or Belgium or Slovenia, a small country in the EU.

 

[Robert]

But I am certain that Scotland would be best off as another Ireland or Belgium or Slovenia, a small country in the EU.

As [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] points out, the EU are unlikely to let them in due to debts.

 

[James]

I am from Northern England and I do not have any desire to join Scotland in a separate nation, and I have never heard of anyone around me even mention this either let alone express a desire for it. Bogus idea.

The way people go on about Northern England it is like it is a third world country LOL, many parts of Yorkshire and Manchester have been getting loads of investment for a while now. Even the epicentre of so-called disconnection in Westminster is only 2 and a half hours down the M1, and I have been to London many times and enjoyed it.

Just a load of much ado about nothing from people who don't live here, and a bit of ado about nothing from moaning northerners with ingrained victim mentalities, and to be fair there are some of these.

 

[Markhor]

Good speech from Gordon Brown this morning. Totally destroyed the SNP's nonexistent economic case for independence.

Britain as a country remains one of the most centralised in the Western world. I hope any agenda to further devolve powers away from London to Holyrood is coupled with more autonomy for the English regions.

 

[Junaids]

As [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] points out, the EU are unlikely to let them in due to debts.

I think more to the point, Spain is terrified of Catalonia and the Basque Country seceding, and will do nothing to encourage secessionism.
[MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION]
Hardly any of us northerners have had occasion to wonder whether we feel closer to people from Edinburgh or Exeter. It's never been a question.

But I'm certain that 50 years of Northern European style centre-left government would appeal more than endless Tory austerity.

The SNP is actually pretty competent.

 

[Junaids]

Good speech from Gordon Brown this morning. Totally destroyed the SNP's nonexistent economic case for independence.

Britain as a country remains one of the most centralised in the Western world. I hope any agenda to further devolve powers away from London to Holyrood is coupled with more autonomy for the English regions.

I agree with every word, but economic arguments will not prevail.

This will ultimately be lost by a combination of:

1) Perceived London Tory arrogance,
2) Petty nationalism, stoked by we English forcing them out of the EU against their wishes,
3) Anger at imposed austerity,
4) New young voters who want Scottish independence and continued EU membership by a huge majority.

Our economic arguments against independence may be right, but they won't prevail.

 

[Yossarian]

Scotland voted 55-45 to Stay a part of the UK, not even that long ago, and if I remember correctly, regionally it was only Glasgow that saw a majority vote for Leave in the whole bloody country. Every other region was majority Stay..

After being promised that staying in the Union was the only way Scotland could remain in the EU.

 

[Yossarian]

Our economic arguments against independence may be right, but they won't prevail.

Just as the arguments against leaving the EU were correct (and will be seen to be correct once the UK has left the EU), but they didn't prevail.

"What's good for the goose is good for the gander"

 

[Yossarian]

I am from Northern England and I do not have any desire to join Scotland in a separate nation, and I have never heard of anyone around me even mention this either let alone express a desire for it. Bogus idea.

The way people go on about Northern England it is like it is a third world country LOL, many parts of Yorkshire and Manchester have been getting loads of investment for a while now. Even the epicentre of so-called disconnection in Westminster is only 2 and a half hours down the M1, and I have been to London many times and enjoyed it.

Just a load of much ado about nothing from people who don't live here, and a bit of ado about nothing from moaning northerners with ingrained victim mentalities, and to be fair there are some of these.

Unless Ireland and the UK can find some sort of formulae that is acceptable to the EU, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will revert back to the situation prior to the Good Friday Agreement and end up having a fully fledged border again.

And if that happens, it won't be long before the question of a unified Ireland comes to the fore again, especially with the carrot of the Northern Irish being part of the EU again with border and custom controls.

 

[James]

Unless Ireland and the UK can find some sort of formulae that is acceptable to the EU, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will revert back to the situation prior to the Good Friday Agreement and end up having a fully fledged border again.

And if that happens, it won't be long before the question of a unified Ireland comes to the fore again, especially with the carrot of the Northern Irish being part of the EU again with border and custom controls.

Agree that we will see a united Ireland again at some point. England Wales and Scotland will stick together I believe.

 

[Robert]

Good speech from Gordon Brown this morning. Totally destroyed the SNP's nonexistent economic case for independence.

Britain as a country remains one of the most centralised in the Western world. I hope any agenda to further devolve powers away from London to Holyrood is coupled with more autonomy for the English regions.

Concur. As an immigrant to the Duchy of Cornwall, I support a Cornish Assembly too.

 

[Junaids]

Good speech from Gordon Brown this morning. Totally destroyed the SNP's nonexistent economic case for independence.

Britain as a country remains one of the most centralised in the Western world. I hope any agenda to further devolve powers away from London to Holyrood is coupled with more autonomy for the English regions.

No offence - I love your posts - but I think that you, [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] and [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] should probably focus less on the economic and historic facts and more on how events are likely to play out in this Trumpian / Brexit world.

1. The SNP First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has flagged a referendum that it arguably would lose anyway. Nobody seems to grasp that she was setting a trap for Theresa May.
2. Theresa May has risen to the bait, and refused a referendum prior to Brexit.
3. There will be no Scottish Independence referendum prior to Brexit.
4. Scotland will therefore be forced out of the EU against its will.

The beauty of Sturgeon's trap is that from that point on it does not matter whether or not May has already concluded a Free Trade Agreement with the EU (which of course she will not have). The reality is that the UK economy will be buffeted in the short-term by reduced access to the EU market and will almost certainly respond by heading towards a low-tax, low-service levels, low-wage economy. Which may work in the longer-term, but would lead to a US-style society in which the haves get richer and the have-nots get poorer - which of course is a social model that is anathema to Scots of every political allegiance.

But none of that actually matters. The economic and social wash-up becomes irrelevant because of the four steps that I listed above.

Because forever more, the SNP and Scottish Greens will be able to say that the Wicked English Dragged Us Out of the EU Against Our Wills, And Refused To Let Us Have A Referendum Until It Was Too Late.

We English can be beaten with that stick indefinitely. And the masterstroke for Sturgeon is that while a UK Labour government could be perceived as seeking to develop Scotland socially, in reality it is going to be Conservative Government in place until at least 2024. Which means austerity, and limited revenue to spend on hospitals, schools and social security.

Which is why I think Sturgeon HAS won. She set a trap, and Theresa May blundered into it.

 

[Junaids]

I am from Northern England and I do not have any desire to join Scotland in a separate nation, and I have never heard of anyone around me even mention this either let alone express a desire for it. Bogus idea.

The way people go on about Northern England it is like it is a third world country LOL, many parts of Yorkshire and Manchester have been getting loads of investment for a while now. Even the epicentre of so-called disconnection in Westminster is only 2 and a half hours down the M1, and I have been to London many times and enjoyed it.

You obviously are not familiar with "Take Us With You Scotland" !



I am from Manchester, or to be precise, the Home Counties-style outer suburbs in Cheshire.

But the reason why I live in Australia is because northern England IS practically a Third World country. My mother grew up in Birstall, and the Jo Cox ceremony took place at the bus stop where she used to take the school bus. But West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester are almost entirely Third World places - there is barely anywhere in Australia or New Zealand as poor as Stretford or Birstall or Dewsbury, let alone Hulme or Toxteth.

As I wrote earlier in this thread, we are becoming Alabama or Arkansas - Third World outposts in a developed nation.

Northern England lost its industrial base, for whatever reasons, three decades ago. A large part of society lives in abject poverty - think of the abduction of Shannon Matthews, and the recent dramatisation featuring Sheridan Smith and Siobhan Finneran.

The people of Scotland believe in mainstream European social democratic government - with taxes at least double and often triple US levels and with services commensurate to that model, with comprehensive free healthcare and free university education.

You are right that hardly anybody in northern England wakes up and thinks "I want to be ruled from Edinburgh instead of London".

But I put it to you that with a few tiny exceptions in Cheshire, Harrogate or the Wirral, the vast majority of people in Northern England share those political values with the Scots, and would choose a high-tax, highly-regulated, free-at-the point-of-delivery services model to a low tax, user-pays model.

People in southern and central England prefer, or at least accept, the lower-tax user-pays model.

People in northern England don't, and never will. And devolution within England can only lead to one destination - union with Scotland and separation from southeast England.

 

[Robert]

No offence - I love your posts - but I think that you, [MENTION=1842]James[/MENTION] and [MENTION=7774]Robert[/MENTION] should probably focus less on the economic and historic facts and more on how events are likely to play out in this Trumpian / Brexit world.

1. The SNP First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has flagged a referendum that it arguably would lose anyway. Nobody seems to grasp that she was setting a trap for Theresa May.
2. Theresa May has risen to the bait, and refused a referendum prior to Brexit.
3. There will be no Scottish Independence referendum prior to Brexit.
4. Scotland will therefore be forced out of the EU against its will.

The beauty of Sturgeon's trap is that from that point on it does not matter whether or not May has already concluded a Free Trade Agreement with the EU (which of course she will not have). The reality is that the UK economy will be buffeted in the short-term by reduced access to the EU market and will almost certainly respond by heading towards a low-tax, low-service levels, low-wage economy. Which may work in the longer-term, but would lead to a US-style society in which the haves get richer and the have-nots get poorer - which of course is a social model that is anathema to Scots of every political allegiance.

But none of that actually matters. The economic and social wash-up becomes irrelevant because of the four steps that I listed above.

Because forever more, the SNP and Scottish Greens will be able to say that the Wicked English Dragged Us Out of the EU Against Our Wills, And Refused To Let Us Have A Referendum Until It Was Too Late.

We English can be beaten with that stick indefinitely. And the masterstroke for Sturgeon is that while a UK Labour government could be perceived as seeking to develop Scotland socially, in reality it is going to be Conservative Government in place until at least 2024. Which means austerity, and limited revenue to spend on hospitals, schools and social security.

Which is why I think Sturgeon HAS won. She set a trap, and Theresa May blundered into it.

I think you have this about right [MENTION=132916]Junaids[/MENTION]. The spectre of a low-tax, low-service UK fills me with horror.

But the independent Scots still have nowhere to go, unless they adopt the Norway model. They are smarter than the English, on the whole, less likely to fall for emotional populist arguments.

 

[James]

If a secession happened, I would move to the south of England.

 

[Gabbar Singh]

It's interesting to note that the SNP's vote-share has gone from 50% in the 2015 general election to 46.5% in the 2016 holyrood election to 32% in the recent council elections.

Next month is going to be very interesting and I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP's vote-share is in the low 40s/high30s. Sure that's enough to win lots of seats under the FPTP system but what about their dream of winning an independence referendum?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39846268

 

[James]

The Tories will pick up a few more Scottish seats this time in my view. The SNP will get all of the rest. Scottish politics is now all about Independence v Unionism, represented by the Nationalists and the Conservatives - the Lib Dems and Labour are now irrelevant.

 

[TalhaSyed]

It's interesting to note that the SNP's vote-share has gone from 50% in the 2015 general election to 46.5% in the 2016 holyrood election to 32% in the recent council elections.

Next month is going to be very interesting and I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP's vote-share is in the low 40s/high30s. Sure that's enough to win lots of seats under the FPTP system but what about their dream of winning an independence referendum?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39846268

I'm guessing in the general election, by enlarge, the Scots who want to stay in EU will vote for SNP and the Scots who want to leave will vote for the Tories.

 

[TalhaSyed]

The Tories will pick up a few more Scottish seats this time in my view. The SNP will get all of the rest. Scottish politics is now all about Independence v Unionism, represented by the Nationalists and the Conservatives - the Lib Dems and Labour are now irrelevant.

Yup spot on.

Majority of voters in Scotland can be put into two groups:

1) Want independence - aka. SNP voters
2) Want to leave EU - aka. Conservative voters

There are some who want both, however, independence usually trumps Brexit for most Scots so their vote goes for SNP.

Their are some who don't want either - however, again, being independent but in the EU usually is seen as the lesser of the two evils, compared to being with the UK but not in the EU - so again I would say SNP will pick up these votes.

Conservatives may win a few seats from SNP, however, I still expect SNP to have an overwhelming majority.

However, I ain't going to lie - I've got very limited knowledge about politics and this is based on just chatting to the 'average Joe' on the street. Not any hardcore stats, facts, polls etc.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Unless Ireland and the UK can find some sort of formulae that is acceptable to the EU, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will revert back to the situation prior to the Good Friday Agreement and end up having a fully fledged border again.

And if that happens, it won't be long before the question of a unified Ireland comes to the fore again, especially with the carrot of the Northern Irish being part of the EU again with border and custom controls.

Yup.

Its pretty ironic that the Unionist parties up north have successfully campaigned for a Brexit which has done nothing but make NI poorer and more likely to secede.

 

[Donal Cozzie]

Yup spot on.

Majority of voters in Scotland can be put into two groups:

1) Want independence - aka. SNP voters
2) Want to leave EU - aka. Conservative voters

There are some who want both, however, independence usually trumps Brexit for most Scots so their vote goes for SNP.

Their are some who don't want either - however, again, being independent but in the EU usually is seen as the lesser of the two evils, compared to being with the UK but not in the EU - so again I would say SNP will pick up these votes.

Conservatives may win a few seats from SNP, however, I still expect SNP to have an overwhelming majority.

However, I ain't going to lie - I've got very limited knowledge about politics and this is based on just chatting to the 'average Joe' on the street. Not any hardcore stats, facts, polls etc.

You had your chance in 2014 mate Braveheart would be turning in his four graves

 

[TalhaSyed]

You had your chance in 2014 mate Braveheart would be turning in his four graves

Independence will be ours sooner or later and we will take Northern England with us

 

[Gabbar Singh]

What a result in Scotland last week, The SNP's share of the vote went from 50% in 2015 to 37% on Thursday whereas the Unionist parties made a bit of a comeback - Tory (29%), Labour (27%) and Lib Dem (7%).

Never thought I'd live to see the day when the Tories poll as high as 29% in Scotland.

Back to the drawing board for Sturgeon and her party..

 

[James]

<b>Nicola Sturgeon unveils case for Scottish independence</b>

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has unveiled what she called a "refreshed" case for independence.

She told a press conference in Edinburgh that her government had an "indisputable mandate" for a second independence referendum.

Ms Sturgeon was launching the first of a series of papers setting out the case to break away from the UK.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the 2014 referendum result should be respected.

And opposition parties accused the Scottish government of being obsessed with independence.

The first minister said it was now time to set out "a different and better vision" for Scotland.

She said it was time to talk abut independence and then to make that choice.

Ms Sturgeon insisted she won last May's election with a "clear commitment to give the people of Scotland the choice of becoming an independent country", and that Holyrood had a "decisive majority" of MSPs in favour of independence.

"The Scottish Parliament therefore has an indisputable democratic mandate," she added.

However, she conceded that a future referendum faced challenges, including what she described as an issue of process.

She said Holyrood's power to hold a vote was "contested".

If a referendum bill was introduced without Westminster agreement it could be challenged in the courts.

Before the 2014 referendum, the Scottish government struck an agreement with the UK government which transferred authority on a temporary basis to Holyrood.

This was called a section 30 order.

The UK government has so far shown no indication that it would be willing to do so again.

Ms Sturgeon said any referendum "must be lawful", and that only parties opposed to independence would benefit from doubt about the process.

"If this UK government had any respect at all for democracy, the issue of legality would be put beyond doubt, as in 2014," she added.

She said she had made clear to Boris Johnson that she was "ready to discuss the terms of such an order at any time".

The first minister said her government had a mandate for another referendum, adding:

"If we are to uphold democracy here in Scotland, we must forge a way forward if necessary without a section 30 order."

An update on the Scottish government's plans for holding a referendum would follow soon, she added.

Ms Sturgeon said the independence papers would set the scene for the debate about Scotland's future in the UK.

She said they would cover how Scotland can benefit from the "massive opportunities" independence would present, but also address the challenges and not shy away from tough questions.

She said independence would put "the levers that determine success into our own hands", and away from Westminster - which was taking Scotland "in the wrong direction".

The first paper - called Independence in the Modern World. Wealthier, Happier, Fairer: Why Not Scotland? - makes comparisons between Scotland and other European countries - all of which Ms Sturgeon said were independent, wealthier and fairer than the UK.

Subsequent papers will look at a areas including currency, tax and spend, defence, social security and pensions, and EU membership and trade.

Ms Sturgeon was joined at the press conference by Patrick Harvie, the co-leader of the Scottish Green Party and a member of the Scottish cabinet.

The SNP and the Greens are both pro-independence and struck a power sharing arrangement at Holyrood after last year's election.

Mr Harvie said Scotland "could chart a different future" with independence and set out a vision for a greener, fairer and more prosperous Scotland.

Boris Johnson said the 2014 result should be respected.

He said the UK government should focus on the economy and Covid recovery, adding:

"That's the focus of the government. We're working with our friends in the Scottish government, in the Scottish administration, on those issues."

At Holyrood, the presiding officer stopped a minister from making a statement to MSPs on Tuesday afternoon because the details had already been released to the media.

Alison Johnstone said the "benefits of independence" announcement should have been made in the chamber first "as a matter of courtesy and respect to the parliament".

She skipped instead to response from Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, who said energy was being wasted on the wrong priorities.

He said: "Pushing for another divisive referendum... is the wrong priority, at the worst possible time."

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said Ms Sturgeon's speech was "a disappointing return to the politics of the past", adding that the majority were opposed to independence.

He said the first minister should not "turn her back" on important issues in order to "focus on her own obsession" with independence.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, said the first minister "must be wired to the moon if she thinks that breaking up the UK is the priority for people".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61796883

 

[PakLFC]

Another referendum will happen for sure. People say Pak or India could be broken well so could the UK even America. Yes I do feel Scotland will choose independence next time.

 

[gazza619]

Just let them free man, for Gods sake!!!

 

[shortbread]

Aaand we're back again......... Scottish Referendum Part 2

A reminder of last time's campaign!

 

[shortbread]

Proposed referendum date: 19 October 2023

 

[Robert]

Just let them free man, for Gods sake!!!

It's pretty much 50/50 now.

 

[shortbread]

It's pretty much 50/50 now.

The one person who can single handedly tip the scales is BoJo. He just needs to act like a real PM for once and avoid doing or saying anything stupid.

 

[Robert]

The one person who can single handedly tip the scales is BoJo. He just needs to act like a real PM for once and avoid doing or saying anything stupid.

That’s Scotland gone, then . They see the way he is treating their fellow Celts in NI.

 

[James]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Due to the First Minister’s statement on her referendum bill the debate tonight on Scotland’s drug deaths has been postponed.</p>— Michael Marra MSP (@michaeljmarra) <a href="https://twitter.com/michaeljmarra/status/1541784444591374339?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The new referendum announced on the day when we also discovered that Scotland has quadruple the drug deaths per million people of any other country in Europe. Says it all about the SNP tbh.

 

[Robert]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Due to the First Minister’s statement on her referendum bill the debate tonight on Scotland’s drug deaths has been postponed.</p>— Michael Marra MSP (@michaeljmarra) <a href="https://twitter.com/michaeljmarra/status/1541784444591374339?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The new referendum announced on the day when we also discovered that Scotland has quadruple the drug deaths per million people of any other country in Europe. Says it all about the SNP tbh.

That’s an alarming stat. Has it risen under the Scot Nats? We all remember Trainspotting 27 years ago. Is it concentrated in Glasgow and Edinburgh or more generalised?

 

[shortbread]

Is it concentrated in Glasgow and Edinburgh or more generalised?

Yes, primarily the southern half of Scotland. Endemic everywhere outside of Glasgow city centre and Edinburgh Lothians. Poverty, depravity, council estates with lots of benefits survivors. Ironic saying this on a predominantly South Asian forum, but the growing poor is an issue especially with rising inflation. What's painful to see is not just the poverty but also the lack of hope.

A complete contrast to the spectacularly beautiful and better to do north. The burgeoning oil prices have certainly boosted the economies of the North East and the growing domestic tourism sector has benefited the West.

 

[sweep_shot]

I have a feeling Scotland may opt for independence this time. The vibe seems different.

 

[Robert]

Yes, primarily the southern half of Scotland. Endemic everywhere outside of Glasgow city centre and Edinburgh Lothians. Poverty, depravity, council estates with lots of benefits survivors. Ironic saying this on a predominantly South Asian forum, but the growing poor is an issue especially with rising inflation. What's painful to see is not just the poverty but also the lack of hope.

A complete contrast to the spectacularly beautiful and better to do north. The burgeoning oil prices have certainly boosted the economies of the North East and the growing domestic tourism sector has benefited the West.

Very informative!

Having driven to “the top” I would have said that Glasgow and Edinburgh had the money, rather than Inverness. But maybe I only saw the well-off bits of the south.

It is gawpingly lovely up there. The Highlands, th lochs, and the Cairngorms.

 

[Technics 1210]

I have a feeling Scotland may opt for independence this time. The vibe seems different.

Good riddance. Scotland are blowing hot air cos they want to join the EU. Scotland can pull their brave heart move all they want.

 

[James]

I have a feeling Scotland may opt for independence this time. The vibe seems different.

I used to feel very sad about the idea of Scotland leaving the UK, and I’d still rather they didn’t do it, but it’s up to them really.

I think it will be a very close vote this time, and I’m not sure what will happen; but honestly either way I am over it now.

Peoples evolve, views develop, things change; and yet in the end, the world keeps turning, and life goes on.

 

[James]

Good riddance. Scotland are blowing hot air cos they want to join the EU. Scotland can pull their brave heart move all they want.

They’ll have massive issues around debt, currency, their EU application, border decisions, defence, Trident, etc. It will be far more complex and messy than Brexit. Get the popcorn out.

 

[Robert]

They’ll have massive issues around debt, currency, their EU application, border decisions, defence, Trident, etc. It will be far more complex and messy than Brexit. Get the popcorn out.

How truly sad so contemplate a hard border across what used to be the UK.

The RN Trident boats will have to relocate to King’s Bay in Georgia,

The RAF Lossiemouth fighter base, critical to the UK’s NATO commitment to guard the North Atlantic will become Scottish Air Force. The Black Watch and Scots Guards will become Scottish Army.

What is left of UK will become effectively a one-party state under the Tories.

What a horrible national, military, political and social schism to think on.

 

[Technics 1210]

They’ll have massive issues around debt, currency, their EU application, border decisions, defence, Trident, etc. It will be far more complex and messy than Brexit. Get the popcorn out.

Indeed, and as long as Sturgeon is first minister of Scotland, she will do anything to stay in power even if it means lying through the skin of her teeth. She is worse than Boris for sure.

This referendum is nothing but political pandering; time to put the wall in Hadrian’s wall.

 

[shortbread]

SNP needs the independence cries to stay in power. Their loyal base are not judging them on the basis of their governance.

SNP has a very simple and highly effective plan, blame Westminster for all the failures and sell hope in the form of independence. This is SNPs Brexit moment!

 

[shortbread]

It is gawpingly lovely up there. The Highlands, th lochs, and the Cairngorms.

I won't claim to have seen the world, but have done fair bit of traveling for leisure and otherwise.

Northern Scotland is simply something else. Beautiful doesn't do justice.

Also relatively unknown is the economic wealth in the North East, cities like Aberdeen. Perhaps the highest per capita Range Rovers, outside the middle East and zone 1 London.

 

[Robert]

I won't claim to have seen the world, but have done fair bit of traveling for leisure and otherwise.

Northern Scotland is simply something else. Beautiful doesn't do justice.

Also relatively unknown is the economic wealth in the North East, cities like Aberdeen. Perhaps the highest per capita Range Rovers, outside the middle East and zone 1 London.

And Alderney Edge in Cheshire! Lots of Porsches, Lambos, even a Zonda or two.

Not visited Aberdeen, though I have Inverness which didn’t look very rich. What’s the source of the income up there?

 

[Robert]

Speaking of Aberdeen.

Here’s what a University of Aberdeen academic says about a federal uk. It seems a good solution to me. Scotland would be legislated from Edinburgh and England perhaps from Birmingham. Then we could hold the 300-year Union together.

http://50shadesoffederalism.com/cas...solution-to-the-uks-constitutional-conundrum/

 

[James]

Federal UK is a solid idea.

West Yorkshire State

 

[James]

UK government lawyers have told the Supreme Court it is "obvious" that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to stage an independence vote without Westminster's consent.
Judges are considering whether the Scottish government is able to legislate for a referendum.
Holyrood ministers argue this would fall within devolved powers, but the UK government say it is a reserved matter.
The UK's highest court is hearing the case at a two-day session in London.
A ruling is not expected for some months.
Scotland's lord advocate referred the case to the Supreme Court due to uncertainty over whether Holyrood could legislate for a second independence referendum while this was opposed at Westminster.

Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain KC, the Scottish government's top law officer, argued on Tuesday that a proposed Scottish Independence Referendum Bill would be politically neutral and that the motivations of government ministers should not be considered.
The Scottish government says a referendum would be "advisory" and would have no legal effect on the Union.
But on Wednesday, Sir James Eadie KC, the UK government's independent barrister on legal issues of national importance, said it was "obvious" that the bill relates to reserved matters and the Union.
He said that meant it would fall outside of the competence of the Scottish Parliament.

Sir James said: "The impacts and effects of Scottish independence would be felt throughout the United Kingdom.
"All parts of the United Kingdom have an interest in that issue, not just Scotland.
"It's obvious why it's reserved to the United Kingdom parliament. It's of critical importance to the United Kingdom as a whole."
He also rejected Ms Bain's assertion that the legal effects of the bill would be "relevantly nil".
"The lord advocate's position has to be that legislation which would directly regulate a referendum on the very subject matter that is reserved does not even relate to that subject matter," said Sir James.
"That, we respectfully submit, is untenable as a submission. The Union is the very and the sole object of the referendum that the bill purports to set up."

Sir James went on to say that a written submission from the SNP stressing Scotland's right to self-determination "fails at almost every analytical stage".
On Tuesday, Ms Bain told the panel of five justices that it was "necessary" and "in the public interest" that the question of legislative competence was answered by the court.
Sir James branded the logic of Ms Bain's position "uncontrolled and surprising".
He maintains the court cannot rule on a bill which has not been passed by the parliament.

Sir James also said that the Supreme Court should not rule on the case because the Scotland Act was created in a "binary" way, meaning that the law officer either has confidence in proposed legislation or does not.
He argued that if the law officer does not have confidence, then the bill cannot be introduced.
Sir James said the lord advocate was able to answer the question of whether the proposed legislation falls within the competence of the Scottish Parliament.
"The difficulty is that she can answer it and has done so," he said.
"And the problem for her is that the Scottish government do not like the answer that she has given on competence."

He said Ms Bain "is not able to form a view with a sufficient degree of confidence that the bill that is proposed would be within competence.
"There is not difficulty with answering the question, the difficulty is with the answer."
In her closing remarks, Ms Bain took issue with a coment from Sir James about cases being brought to the Supreme Court "willy-nilly".
She said such comments "belittle" a matter of the "upmost constitutional importance".
The lord advocate continued: "It's just not right that he should say what he said about why we're here.
"It's so unfair and it's reflected in everything we've put forward in our case."

She also dismissed the suggestion this case would open the "floodgates" to submissions to the Supreme Court when law officers were unsure of their parliament's jurisdiction.
Ms Bain pointed out that this was the first such reference in the history of devolution.
The Supreme Court's senior judge, Lord Reed, warned it could be "some months" before a ruling is reached in the case.
He said the two-day hearing was just the "tip of the iceberg", with more than 8,000 pages of written material to consider.

BBC

 

[PakLFC]

A matter of when not if we have another Scottish referendum. I see it happening within the next three years. Will need to study the advantages and disadvantages of independence. Can Scotland survive as an independent country?

 

[Robert]

Federal UK is a solid idea.

West Yorkshire State

You’d even break from the South Riding and North Riding?

 

[James]

You’d even break from the South Riding and North Riding?

Without a doubt!

 

[shortbread]

A matter of when not if we have another Scottish referendum. I see it happening within the next three years. Will need to study the advantages and disadvantages of independence. Can Scotland survive as an independent country?

All countries can survive, the question is will they prosper?!

SNP needs to convince the Scots that independent Scotland will do better that the UK, which is lowering the bar each passing month. Liz Truss cabinet is the cherry on top!

 

[Robert]

Without a doubt!

Leeds-Bradford-Keighley 4 ever!!

 

[PakLFC]

All countries can survive, the question is will they prosper?!

SNP needs to convince the Scots that independent Scotland will do better that the UK, which is lowering the bar each passing month. Liz Truss cabinet is the cherry on top!

Not all countries can survive. As for Scotland I still feel we'll struggle without the UK. New laws and all the upheaval will make it unbearable for so may people. The word "independence" sounds liberating but in reality self dependence needs a lot of time to get used too.

 

[James]

<b>An independent Scotland would keep the pound and move to its own currency when the "time is right".</b>

Nicola Sturgeon outlined the view at a briefing giving updated arguments for what could happen if the country voted for independence.
The first minister said a timetable for creating a Scottish currency would not be set, however, use of sterling would be as "short as practicable".
The UK government has said now is not the time to discuss independence.
A Scottish government paper has set out proposals for key issues, such as currency, trade and border crossings.
The prospectus, which was unveiled at a media briefing in Edinburgh, included details on how an independent Scotland would apply to become a member of the European Union.
It also outlined a redesign of the energy market and a migration policy to boost the working population.

At the Bute House briefing, Ms Sturgeon said a Scottish pound would be created after independence only "when the time is right".
This is in keeping with proposals made in 2018 by the SNP's Sustainable Growth Commission, which said six key tests would have to be passed before the country transitioned away from sterling. That move was forecast to take about a decade.
The "Building a new Scotland" paper cuts the number of tests to three with no prediction on the length of time it would take to fulfil them. The first minister said it would not be "responsible" to give a firm commitment on a timetable.
In the prospectus, an independent Scottish central bank would be created, along with a debt management office and a significantly strengthened Scottish Fiscal Commission to replicate the work of the UK Office for Budget Responsibility.
An independent Scotland would look to join the EU; remain within the Common Travel Area with the UK and Ireland and join the EU's Schengen free movement area.
Ms Sturgeon explains: "That means any talk of passports to visit relatives in England is utter nonsense. Free movement of people across our islands will continue as before.
"An independent Scotland will also be gaining free movement across 27 other countries."

The prospectus says there would be physical border checks on goods on the two main trunk routes between England and Scotland, while similar measures at rail freight terminals would be likely.
Ms Sturgeon said: "None of this, none of this is insurmountable, but it does require proper planning."
She went on to address the issue of an independent Scotland taking on UK debt.
The first minister explained that while there was no "legal" requirement to do so, Holyrood has a "moral" responsibility.
Ms Sturgeon told the press conference: "In light of that, and indeed our desire for a strong future partnership between Scottish and UK governments, we would seek a fair settlement on both debt and assets."
She also said that an independent Scotland could realise its "vast renewable energy potential" and "kickstart the inclusive growth" via the proposed Building a New Scotland Fund, a pot of up to £20bn generated through oil industry revenues.
"Without independence, Scotland will face austerity, trade barriers and "narrowed horizons as a result of Brexit," Ms Sturgeon said. "All of it exacerbated by increasingly dysfunctional Westminster decision-making."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63278974

 

[shortbread]

Not all countries can survive. As for Scotland I still feel we'll struggle without the UK. New laws and all the upheaval will make it unbearable for so may people. The word "independence" sounds liberating but in reality self dependence needs a lot of time to get used too.

When Scots look at the UK now, all they see is struggle and upheaval.

 

[PakLFC]

When Scots look at the UK now, all they see is struggle and upheaval.

Even if Scotland one day becomes independent what happens in England will effect Scotland too.

 

[shortbread]

Even if Scotland one day becomes independent what happens in England will effect Scotland too.

Countering that rhetoric argument, wouldn't the side effects of the westminster circus create far more harm for Scotland within the union?

Right now Edinburgh is simply a mute spectator to the falling pound, rising interest rates, declining GDP etc.....

No country is totally immune in today's world, but the argument the SNP puts forward is that it's within an independent Scotland's control how it chooses to deal with it. It's a very easy case to argue that they can do it better than Westminster.

 

[PakLFC]

Countering that rhetoric argument, wouldn't the side effects of the westminster circus create far more harm for Scotland within the union?

Right now Edinburgh is simply a mute spectator to the falling pound, rising interest rates, declining GDP etc.....

No country is totally immune in today's world, but the argument the SNP puts forward is that it's within an independent Scotland's control how it chooses to deal with it. It's a very easy case to argue that they can do it better than Westminster.

No the argument of Scotland becoming independent is a fair one. At the same time we need to be careful in what we wish for in case we get it then regret it!

 

[shortbread]

No the argument of Scotland becoming independent is a fair one. At the same time we need to be careful in what we wish for in case we get it then regret it!

I agree and I'm not advocating for Scottish independence. All I was trying to present was the current optics and how it's a favourable time for SNP to present the independence case. People are losing trust in the London stronghold!

Westminster, especially the Tories take it for granted that the devolved regions will never break away. This could come back to bite them...... but who are we kidding, do they even care?!

 

[PakLFC]

I agree and I'm not advocating for Scottish independence. All I was trying to present was the current optics and how it's a favourable time for SNP to present the independence case. People are losing trust in the London stronghold!

Westminster, especially the Tories take it for granted that the devolved regions will never break away. This could come back to bite them...... but who are we kidding, do they even care?!

Are you in favour or against Scottish independence?. Don't stand on the shelf.

 

[shortbread]

Are you in favour or against Scottish independence?. Don't stand on the shelf.

An independent Scotland is a very viable proposition, especially with the North Sea and high oil prices. As a nation it has everything going for it apart from the weather.

But the challenge as in the rest of the UK is whether it will be executed by diligent leadership and that's severely lacking. The SNP is perfectly capable of making a dog's breakfast out of independence.

The current political class in the UK on either side of the isle are incapable of running a junior league football team successfully, let alone a country!

 

[PakLFC]

An independent Scotland is a very viable proposition, especially with the North Sea and high oil prices. As a nation it has everything going for it apart from the weather.

But the challenge as in the rest of the UK is whether it will be executed by diligent leadership and that's severely lacking. The SNP is perfectly capable of making a dog's breakfast out of independence.

The current political class in the UK on either side of the isle are incapable of running a junior league football team successfully, let alone a country!

You still have not answered by question of post 315.

 

[shortbread]

You still have not answered by question of post 315.

Not now. I'd like to see Labour win a majority in Westminster, but if they F it up as well my vote will definitely go for an independent Scotland.

 

[PakLFC]

Not now. I'd like to see Labour win a majority in Westminster, but if they F it up as well my vote will definitely go for an independent Scotland.

With the PM quitting we could see Labour in government again very soon.

 

[ex-q-zit]

Independence referendum: Scottish government loses indyref2 court case

The Scottish government cannot hold an independence referendum without the UK government's consent, the Supreme Court has ruled.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold a referendum on 19 October next year.

But the court ruled unanimously that she does not have the power to do so because the issue is reserved to Westminster.

The UK government has refused to grant formal consent for a referendum.

Court president Lord Reed said the laws that created the devolved Scottish Parliament in 1999 meant it did not have power over areas of the constitution including the union between Scotland and England.

These issues are the responsibility of the UK Parliament, he said, and in absence of an agreement between the two governments the Scottish Parliament is therefore unable to legislate for a referendum.

He also rejected the Scottish government's argument that any referendum would simply be "advisory" and would have no legal effect on the union, with people only being asked to give their opinion on whether or not Scotland should become an independent country.

Lord Reed said: "A lawfully held referendum would have important political consequences relating to the union and the United Kingdom Parliament.

"Its outcome would possess the authority, in a constitution and political culture founded upon democracy, of a democratic expression of the view of the Scottish electorate.

"It is therefore clear that the proposed Bill has more than a loose or consequential connection with the reserved matters of the Union of Scotland and England, and the sovereignty of the United Kingdom Parliament."

Responding to the outcome, Ms Sturgeon said she was disappointed but respected the ruling of the court, and stressed that the judges do not make the law and only interpret it.

She added: "That is a hard pill for any supporter of independence, and surely indeed for any supporter of democracy, to swallow."

The first minister told a media conference that a referendum remained her preferred option, but in the absence of an agreement the SNP would use the next UK general election as a "de facto referendum" in an attempt to demonstrate that a majority of people in Scotland support independence.

The "precise detail" of how this would work will now be a matter for the party to debate, she said, with a special conference to be held in the new year.

Ms Sturgeon said: "We must and we will find another democratic, lawful means for Scottish people to express their will" and accused the UK government of "democracy denial".

A series of pro-independence rallies are being held in towns and cities across Scotland on Wednesday evening.

Recent opinion polls have suggested that the country is essentially split down the middle on the independence question, but with a very narrow majority in favour of staying in the UK.

However the SNP and Greens form a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak welcomed the "clear and definitive ruling" from the Supreme Court.

Speaking at Prime Minister's Questions, he said: "The people of Scotland want us to be working on fixing the major challenges that we collectively face, whether that's the economy, supporting the NHS or indeed supporting Ukraine.

"Now is the time for politicians to work together and that's what this government will do."

Downing Street later said Mr Sunak will seek to avoid another referendum while he is prime minister.

His press secretary told reporters: "I think that would be something that we would look to do."

She added that there had been a "once-in-a-generation referendum not too long ago and that result should be respected".

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said there was not a majority in Scotland for either a referendum or independence, but there was a "majority in Scotland and across the UK for change".

The case was referred to the Supreme Court by Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain KC, the Scottish government's top law officer.

Ms Bain said at the time that she did not have the "necessary degree of confidence" that Holyrood would have the power to pass legislation for a referendum without UK government consent.

She said the issue was of "exceptional public importance" and asked the UK's top court to provide a definitive ruling.

The court heard two days of legal arguments from both the UK and Scottish governments last month, with its ruling being delivered just six weeks later - earlier than many experts had expected.

The independence referendum in 2014, in which voters backed remaining in the UK by 55% to 45%, was possible because the UK government agreed to temporarily transfer the necessary powers to the Scottish Parliament to allow the vote to be held through what is known as a Section 30 order.

Recent opinion polls have suggested that the country is essentially split down the middle on the independence question, but with a very narrow majority in favour of staying in the UK.

BBC